Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Szeth_Pancakes]

 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Azmine directs suspicion towards Araris, while Szeth seems reluctant to vote for them.

I was reluctant to vote because there was very little evidence against Araris at that point. You don't vote someone out exe for sounding vaguely suspicious in one post very early in D1. You exe the person who is quick to accuse that person. (At least, those are my rules.)

[vonnegut]

Szeth, tell me how you feel about FlyingBooks.

 

Also, how do you feel about Jondesu.

Edited May 4, 2021 by vonnegut

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

See, this is precisely why it doesn’t make sense for me to be elim. I’m the sort of player who would likely get scanned nearly every cycle. Also, do you really expect me, the champion of PM safety, to claim to Ash, who is not confirmed good? Especially with a redirect action going around, that’s as good as giving the elims another kill (if Ash had been elim).

N1, I expect someone else submitted the kill because it would be reasonable to expect Quinn to scan you. N2 you weren't suspected as much, and e!Mat definitely was by Jondesu. It could be that our of your active teammates, Mat was more likely yo be scanned, another has the more valuable Danforth role, and another wasn't on. 

It's weird that there wasn't an NK. It's weird that you delayed stating your N1 action for a while. And there were ways of giving forewarning of your kill, such as by PMing someone at the last second. 

@Elandera @PizzaPower55 There may be an easier way of solving this. (Although I respect e!Araris doing his due diligence to fight the exe.) GMs, would Discover the Hidden (action scan) differentiate between a crossbow kill and an NK? 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You want to exe me off of one comment I made D1 about a train that picked up really suddenly because of a post made in the first hour of the game? Whatever, man  I would have said that regardless of who's train it was. You said I was the only one village reading Araris, but I... definitely don't think I was the only one. Heck, I was sheeping Illwei in the quote that you quoted.

The nice thing about this situation is it blindsided everyone. I expect the elims are now bussing, so we have the first two rounds to rely on as the most AI posts when it comes to people's connections to Araris. I can imagine a scenario where Araris is under pressure for something fairly easy to fight, so you decide not to D1 bus and instead make good arguments for your teammate. 

To clarify, a few more people Nulled him, but you're the only one who actually called him village. It's semantic, so I'm sussing people who Nulled too, like Szeth. If Ashbringer wasn't Silence, I'd sus him too for a pretty hedgey post on Araris. 

31 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I was reluctant to vote because there was very little evidence against Araris at that point. You don't vote someone out exe for sounding vaguely suspicious in one post very early in D1. You exe the person who is quick to accuse that person. (At least, those are my rules.)

From your first question, basically who we voting, boys, you seemed ready to sheep the consensus. And then... didn't. That felt odd. 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Books has been notoriously inactive the entire game, but the little they've said feels village to me. I don't really have a good read on Jondesu. Everything he's said has felt very null-ish (unless I missed something D2 or N2).

I sheeped the consensus, but then I read through the thread a little more carefully, and realized that the consensus was not as stable and evidence based as it first had seemed. As you said, Quinn aggressively tried to exe Araris D1, back when there was very little evidence against them.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Elandera]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

GMs, would Discover the Hidden (action scan) differentiate between a crossbow kill and an NK? 

No. Scans reveal the type of action taken (kill, spy, protect, etc.) but not specifically which of those actions.

[Araris Valerian]

22 minutes ago, Archer said:

It's weird that there wasn't an NK. It's weird that you delayed stating your N1 action for a while. And there were ways of giving forewarning of your kill, such as by PMing someone at the last second.

But aside from the NK thing, which I can only say is unfortunate for me, everyone knows that I really don't like sharing info. Especially early game, before we can be confident that there's enough to actually be able to piece together anything useful. Also, why would elim!me delay stating my N1 action to begin with? It's not as if thinking up a fake action takes several hours or anything. And in retrospect, I'm not sure I'd share my N1 action if we could replay things. It didn't help the village to know what I'd done, which means all it did was help the elims get a better idea of who might have a useful role.

[Quintessential]

20 minutes ago, Archer said:

N1, I expect someone else submitted the kill because it would be reasonable to expect Quinn to scan you. N2 you weren't suspected as much, and e!Mat definitely was by Jondesu. It could be that our of your active teammates, Mat was more likely yo be scanned, another has the more valuable Danforth role, and another wasn't on. 

Wait. Wait wait wait. I was trying to think... why would an elim team have a player like Araris submit the kill? and it occurred to me:

• they can't have Danforth submit the kill, except as a last resort, because all actions Danforth takes (presumably including the elim kill) have a 20% chance of failing.
• Assuming four elims, that means they had 3 options to submit the kill, and normally I'd think Araris would be the last choice for that, unless the other two non-Danforth people were also super high-profile players, but... well, I at least have reasons to trust Archer and Ash (and myself of course). Mat not so much, so I guess I could see Mat being on the team (nice catch there Archer) but that still leaves one more player.
• So what if, theoretically, there was an elim who was the obvious choice to submit the kill N1, but then for some reason they couldn't do it N2? Szeth and Dannex don't fit that profile, Szeth because they used a Hidden Transcript N1 (I scanned them) and Dannex because there's no reason he couldn't have submitted the kill N2.
• But what about Azmine? Archer labeled him villagey for directing suspicion towards Araris, but the thing is, that was D1 and it was kind of weak imo. Azmine would make sense because:
  • He said he didn't submit an action N1, but we have no scans confirming that.
  • He's a new player (on this site) and theoretically less likely to be scanned, which the elims would know.
  • Because he's new, the fact that he didn't submit an action might not be seen as so odd, which the elims would also know.
  • He was the only person to go insane after C1, which would explain why Araris submitted the kill. When faced with the choice between Araris, Mat (or someone else who's super active, completely inactive, or somehow knew that someone was going to scan them), or a 20% chance of failure, I could totally see a team choosing Araris. 

[Ashbringer]

Here's the thing - of all people (aside from the new players) it does make the most sense for Araris to not PM me that he's killing Illwei. He's PM safety incarnate, which sticks him at strong odds with Illwei, and he's also been vocally suspicious of Illwei for quite a while. 

But the Elims just not killing doesn't make sense... unless there's a good number of Elims in the people who asked me to assign them scans. (In other words... like 5 people, including Mat.)

And Elim!Araris loves to submit the Night Kill. I've seen enough evidence for that.

So IMO we've got to stick through this. There's a good amount to go on if Araris is telling the truth.

 

11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

So what if, theoretically, there was an elim who was the obvious choice to submit the kill N1, but then for some reason they couldn't do it N2? Szeth and Dannex don't fit that profile, Szeth because they used a Hidden Transcript N1 (I scanned them) and Dannex because there's no reason he couldn't have submitted the kill N2.

I wouldn't cross out Dannex just yet, as they did make a direct counter to routing scans through me, which is likely a good enough reason to expect a scan from my group.

But... @Dannex, what did you do this fine evening?

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But... @Dannex, what did you do this fine evening?

Hey how dare you steal that phrasing from me?  

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Hey how dare you steal that phrasing from me?  

CTRL + F's

Uh... what's a Freudian slip if it's phrasing and not a slip?

[Araris Valerian]

26 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And Elim!Araris loves to submit the Night Kill.

This... is very true. It gives me great joy to eliminate those pesky villagers.

Also, for the general knowledge of the village, I figured I should let everyone know that I've got Silver Bones. Just to warn y'all that it's going to be a while before I die.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This... is very true. It gives me great joy to eliminate those pesky villagers.

Also, for the general knowledge of the village, I figured I should let everyone know that I've got Silver Bones. Just to warn y'all that it's going to be a while before I die.

Oof. Anyone have a crossbow?

[vonnegut]

@Ashbringer I think this got lost in the shuffle:  Did you tell FlyingBooks to scan Szeth last night, or is that something FB decided on their own?

[Ashbringer]

Books did that on their own.

Only people who asked me to give them scans were Archer, Quinn, and Mat. Then I PMed Vonne, Pizza, and Azmine asking them if they'd take scan recommendations, and only Pizza of those three did. 

[Mat]

Technically I asked you to give me a scan with the caveat that I was going to scan whoever I wanted anyway, but whatever  

[Szeth_Pancakes]

@Ashbringer, could you coordinate killing Araris with a crossbow in case he really does have Silver Bones? I'd coordinate it, but I'm under suspicion by quite a few people, so I'd feel better if you did it.

[Ashbringer]

... I feel like saying "shoot that guy" doesn't need much in the way of coordination 

Unless you mean so we don't end up wasting four Crossbows on one Araris. Then sure, but if you're a Crossbow carrier who wants to coordinate then DON'T CLAIM DURING THE DAY. No real sense in coordinating before we find out if Araris has Bones or not.

... Thug with a one-shot kill. That is interesting.

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

... Thug with a one-shot kill. That is interesting.

Presumably because using the Crossbow carries a very distinct possibility of death. And if I got voted out before using the Crossbow, the elims could get their hands on it.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Unless you mean so we don't end up wasting four Crossbows on one Araris

Yes, that was my intent.

And my Intent.

I carry the Shard of being frugal with crossbows.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Szeth_Pancakes

[vonnegut]

I think the Elim team is Araris, Szeth, FlyingBooks.  If there is a fourth, maybe Mat.  

For one thing, Szeth "completely forgot" to do an action last night.  And Books then instantly hopped in with "can confirm," after saying so little for so long.  It's possible that this is true.  But it doesn't smell right.  

 

Szeth's "reads" from last day:

Quote

My reads thus far:

Mat: Mild Vil

Azmine: Very Vil

Illwei: Very Mild Elim

Archer: Vil

Quinn: Mild Elim

Szeth: Confirmed Vil 

Dannex: Mild Elim

Jondesu: Null

Ash: Vil

Araris: Null

Vonn: Null

Pizza: Null

Books: Very Mild Vil

Only explanation for the opinion on Books is "Books has been very inactive, but the little they've said feels vil to me."
Which might make sense except for all of the "Null" opinions.  All these people have been posting and Szeth is just "null null null" but when it comes down to Books, who has barely posted, it's a village read.  

Combined with the exchange first thing this morning backing up Szeth "forgetting" to take an action last night.  

Books, why did you scan Szeth?

 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

7 minutes ago, vonnegut said:

I think the Elim team is Araris, Szeth, FlyingBooks.  If there is a fourth, maybe Mat.  

For one thing, Szeth "completely forgot" to do an action last night.  And Books then instantly hopped in with "can confirm," after saying so little for so long.  It's possible that this is true.  But it doesn't smell right.  

 

Szeth's "reads" from last day:

Only explanation for the opinion on Books is "Books has been very inactive, but the little they've said feels vil to me."
Which might make sense except for all of the "Null" opinions.  All these people have been posting and Szeth is just "null null null" but when it comes down to Books, who has barely posted, it's a village read.  

Combined with the exchange first thing this morning backing up Szeth "forgetting" to take an action last night.  

Books, why did you scan Szeth?

 

Here, I'll give you a rundown on why I nulled all those people. Pizza had said even less than Books at that point - they each had around 2 or 3 posts. Pizza's were each around 1 sentence. Books's were each around 2 paragraphs, and for some reason just felt kind of vil. It was a gut read, though, so I marked it as "Very Mild." Jondesu hadn't been very active D1 and N1, and I hadn't been very active D2 and N2, so I didn't have a chance to get a very good read on them. The same goes for you, Vonn. Araris had two suspicious posts back in D1, but since they hadn't said anything that seemed very elim, so I moved them from Mild Elim to Null.

 

[Mat]

28 minutes ago, vonnegut said:

I think the Elim team is Araris, Szeth, FlyingBooks.  If there is a fourth, maybe Mat.  

For one thing, Szeth "completely forgot" to do an action last night.  And Books then instantly hopped in with "can confirm," after saying so little for so long.  It's possible that this is true.  But it doesn't smell right.  

Szeth's "reads" from last day:

Only explanation for the opinion on Books is "Books has been very inactive, but the little they've said feels vil to me."
Which might make sense except for all of the "Null" opinions.  All these people have been posting and Szeth is just "null null null" but when it comes down to Books, who has barely posted, it's a village read.  

Combined with the exchange first thing this morning backing up Szeth "forgetting" to take an action last night.  

Books, why did you scan Szeth?

Hmm yeah I could see that. Does anyone remember what Books said about Araris?

And it's kind of funny we're all still going off a 4 person team guess- Vonne brings up a vaild point that it very well could be three taking in account elim!Araris' extra life. That'd be a personal victory and I-told-you-so moment for me lol even though I didn't actually believe it, just theorized it. Though now I definitely could believe it, a four person team plus extra life seems overpowered to me. Though with the action scans and Shades it is more possible than otherwise.

[Jondesu]

I hate to post without much to say, but I do want to chime in and say I think the reasoning on who the team is makes sense (vonne’s guess, that is). I don’t know that I’d be confident saying it just those three, and whether Mat is the 4th (despite my earlier suspicion, he hasn’t interacted a ton with Araris either to link or distance, and I feel the Elims often work to consciously distance from each other), but I like that initial 3 person team as a way to start eliminating them. I’ll vote for Araris next cycle if they survive and Szeth if not, just to go on record now. That’s assuming I survive, but I don’t know why the Elims would kill me when I still have a few people suspicious of me it seems.

[danex]

Alright so first of all Araris. 

Second of all, I don’t think any crossbowmen should use their item, claiming silver bones is the first thing an outed elim would do. There’s basically no downside if we just wait for the next turn. 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Alright so first of all Araris. 

Second of all, I don’t think any crossbowmen should use their item, claiming silver bones is the first thing an outed elim would do. There’s basically no downside if we just wait for the next turn. 

Well, crossbow is night only. So yes :P. What's your point?