Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Araris Valerian]

I did an action scan on Quinn last Night.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[danex]

I think that everyone is assuming that Silence=Village but that is very very not true at all. I don’t see how being Silence is AI in any way shape or form. 

51 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

No Scribe Note, so something's up. Time to figure out what.

Maybe Gears was the only scribe? Either that or any other scribes just decided to spy on a PM instead.

As for me, I did a big Dumb and forgot to attempt to spy on someone. That’s two turns in a row for me. Sad.

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Dannex said:

I think that everyone is assuming that Silence=Village but that is very very not true at all. I don’t see how being Silence is AI in any way shape or form. 

It's meta AI in two ways :P. Flavor wise Silence is village, and also role wise because she's a protection role. Though trolly GM distributions exist. No Archer, you cannot reference LG75 here

8 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Maybe Gears was the only scribe? Either that or any other scribes just decided to spy on a PM instead.

But Gears voted anonymously, unless someone else did and hasn't said anything for... some reason. He couldn't have submitted two actions.

[danex]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But Gears voted anonymously, unless someone else did and hasn't said anything for... some reason. He couldn't have submitted two actions.

Wait, did gears claim he anonymously voted? I must’ve missed that. 

Also, classic DannexPlan™️ incoming

but I think this one actually makes some sense

everyone use Discover the Hidden and everyone RNG who you target. That way we get as even a spread as possible, without having any possible way for the elims to know who’s targeting who. 
If you don’t want to risk going insane, you could just not do it, but I suggest that you do. We’d need most people to do it for it to be effective. 

[Ashbringer]

Okay, let's see. If I'm going to be the coordinator we'll need some ground rules.

I see your DannexPlan™️ and raise you one AshPlan™️ 

If you want to trust me with your night Action Scan (or want to not be Action Scanning), PM me tonight saying so. I'll assign a player for you to scan. When the Day rolls around... actually, wait, no. I'm going to ask Elandera what I can do code-wise. I really don't want to out players who may have more important things to be doing during the night... now that I'm out of the box I don't know what people would be doing at night besides Action Scanning, Item Using, ... or Item Passing? I guess Surveyors might do that...

Anyway. If you don't trust me... either PM me tonight saying so or don't PM me at all. You're off the hook - RNG your target, pick a target, verify me, do an Elim kill, do a barrel roll, whatever. I might up the ante on you getting a Scan, but I've been on the receiving end of a scan wall before and it's not fun. So at least trust me when I say that I'll be sending scans into Group A as well. However, if you scan I will ask you to hold off on announcing your findings for ~24 hours. In the off chance I get an Elim to cover for another Elim, I'd like to be able to get two birds with one stone instead of one bird with... two stones.

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Dannex said:

everyone use Discover the Hidden and everyone RNG who you target. That way we get as even a spread as possible, without having any possible way for the elims to know who’s targeting who. 
If you don’t want to risk going insane, you could just not do it, but I suggest that you do. We’d need most people to do it for it to be effective. 

This is a good idea in theory

But just for the sake of poking holes in a DannexIdea because I like math

Probability says that you have a 20% chance of going insane. If everyone on the player list (minus one for the elim killer) does it, we can assume that 20% of the 12 players will go insane, which is 2-3. That in turn also diminishes our voting potential by 2-3 tomorrow, which probably isn't the best idea, though one/more of them could be elim, it's all chance. The elims also could just all not scan, leaving them with a higher vote majority than otherwise, albeit a small one. Though they also have Danford's manip, which can cause all sorts of problems coupled with the higher majority.

But yeah those are small nitpicks and I still think this is probably a good idea. I think it mainly boils down to using your own judgement, which ends up being the same as no plan at all :P. I'm likely going to scan someone, anyway.

...Wait, ninja'd by Ash. Hrm. That also could work though I doubt there'd be a consensus.

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If everyone on the player list (minus one for the elim killer) does it,

... one problem with that.

(Not a major problem, but one problem )

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... one problem with that.

(Not a major problem, but one problem )

Oh right

Yeah I totally didn't forget to factor that in :P.

Y'know what there are far too many unknowns here forget the whole probability thing I was going with and just use your own judgement :P.

[Ashbringer]

22 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

If you want to trust me with your night Action Scan (or want to not be Action Scanning), PM me tonight saying so. I'll assign a player for you to scan. When the Day rolls around... actually, wait, no. I'm going to ask Elandera what I can do code-wise. I really don't want to out players who may have more important things to be doing during the night... now that I'm out of the box I don't know what people would be doing at night besides Action Scanning, Item Using, ... or Item Passing? I guess Surveyors might do that...

Anyway. If you don't trust me... either PM me tonight saying so or don't PM me at all. You're off the hook - RNG your target, pick a target, verify me, do an Elim kill, do a barrel roll, whatever. I might up the ante on you getting a Scan, but I've been on the receiving end of a scan wall before and it's not fun. So at least trust me when I say that I'll be sending scans into Group A as well. However, if you scan I will ask you to hold off on announcing your findings for ~24 hours. In the off chance I get an Elim to cover for another Elim, I'd like to be able to get two birds with one stone instead of one bird with... two stones.

Third Category:

If you want to choose your own Action Scan target but want me to know who it is... uh... tell me? Might still have double-ups but that's that.

[vonnegut]

Okay.  I've done re-reading of the rules and I think I'm more solid on what is going on, but please correct me if I'm misunderstanding things.

1) Jondesu could only have survived with Silver Bones, right?  And we don't know if that is a town or Elim ability?

2) Ash has claimed Silence.  And we don't know if that is a town or Elim role, but probably a town role.

3) Ash is now saying that everyone can PM him to coordinate scans to find the Elim kill.

4) The end of day was a bit nuts, but the whole flow of the day, from what I read was:  some back-and-forth retributive-voting.  A long silence.  Me calling out Szeth who went from super talkative to near silent :/ .  Suddenly a flow of Jondesu votes.  Just as suddenly, a switch to Ash votes.  Ash claims.  Everyone falls back on Jondesu.  Jondesu is executed but survives due to role/ability.

Those are the premises I'm working with-- again, let me know if I'm messing up.

My thoughts based on that:

1) I am going to do a scan tonight, and I'm going to scan Ash.  I'm very, very concerned that Ash is Elim and is NOT the Silence.  For one thing, the role claim came minutes before execution.  IF Ash is Elim, that would be a nothing-to-lose gamble that would either a) Save his neck, or b ) flush out the actual Silence.  Continuing, IF Ash is Elim, having everyone do their scans according to his instruction would serve a double purpose of lessening the chances that someone would scan HIM and find out that his claim was false, AND letting Elim team know who is being scanned tonight.  Am I certain this is the case?  Absolutely not.  But, I am not ready to just trust.  

2) I still think Jondesu is village.  Reading over the thread, the double-railroad action that happened, and I'm still not seeing WHY everyone decided to vote for them.  If Ash is Elim, then I think Jondesu is almost certainly village.  Even if Ash is village, Jondesu could still very well be village.  Because, bringing me to:

3) I still feel like Szeth is Elim.  And I keep checking myself with, am I just reading into it because I got a twinge early on and now I've got it in my head too strong.  Possible.  But, he started out SO active and jumping around and throwing votes out there, and being what I was reading in my gut as "if I'm suspecting anyone, it's probably him, based on tone."  And once I started focusing on that, he shifted entirely.  Here's the weird scenario in my head right now:  what if the other Elim are really quiet, and have told him to talk less and let the village pick itself apart.  

4) Matrim has me puzzled.  I keep pinging on him, but he was one of the most suspicious for me right from the start, and once I start suspecting someone it is hard to stop.  I will say that he has been more consistent throughout (way more consistent than Szeth) and those of you who know him don't seem alarmed by his tone or posting style, so maybe that's just him.  I'm still suspicious, but trying not to read into his posts with a biased mindset.

5) Illwei/Asaris/Quinn/Archer/Dannex - making substantive posts, and being very active.  I'm not seeing anything overtly suspicious from any of them, except that if they are Elim, they are doing a really good job, AND at least ONE of them IS probably Elim, because they've been participating in these sudden shifts in voting.  Probably.  Unless we have a situation like:

6) What if Elim team has Szeth, Pizza, and FlyingBooks?  In which case, they get to laugh up their sleeves while the active town eats itself alive.

7) I typed this while not looking at the player list.  Anyone I didn't mention is probably Elim, because when I played this in the past, that's always what ended up happening, LOL.  

 

ETA:  Okay, I forgot Azmine.  Me forgetting does not mean that he's probably Elim (point #7 was mostly me making an inside joke with myself, because that REALLY did happen a lot when I used to play this back in the day).  I don't know what to think of him at all.

Edited May 3, 2021 by vonnegut

[Quintessential]

@vonnegut personally I'm inclined to trust Ash because of that that last-minute claim. He knew he was the main exe target a half-hour before the end of the cycle so he had some time to construct a counterargument/train (or wait for his teammates to do it for him), and instead he stayed silent and then claimed. Which seems like a last-ditch villager attempt to me, I guess. If an e!Ash wanted to save himself by claiming, he would have done it right when he knew he was in danger, not at the very end of the cycle when people might not have seen it and acted accordingly. A villager, though, has to worry about being killed for an important role, so v!Ash would wait until the last minute to make sure that the claim is really necessary.

Or assuming Ash is telling the truth about being Silence at all, anyway. Which. idk. Now that I'm thinking about it, it's a rather terminal gambit for an elim to use... and since it was the only major intervention we saw, Ash's team would have to be pretty inactive for him to be elim... and I mostly trust Vonne to tell the truth about their scan, assuming they don't go insane... mmm idk I feel like my scan would be more useful elsewhere. So I'll ask Ash who I should scan this cycle, instead of scanning him.

[Azmine_king]

Vonne's argument feels like S/T with Ash. Their reads list seems pretty good, I dont get why a lot of people put me as null but that's NAI. Problem is I town read both Vonne and Ash so not sure what to do there.

[Jondesu]

Sorry ya’ll. Meant to claim the Silver Bones before the lynch ended, but got sick yesterday and slept most of the afternoon. Was meaning to try and save us from a wasted lynch.

I’m very suspicious of the late votes on me now. The earlier ones I’ve expressed my feelings on, but piling on seems odd to me. I’ll read them over again and weigh in more later.

[Archer]

SNOOPS’ TRAVEL DIARY: THE FORREST OF DREAMS: DAY 43

My hands shake as I write this. Two men were killed this week, so I took it upon myself to organize their funeral parties. Apologies to my editor for my  terrible handwriting; I’m jotting notes while shaking and shimmying on the dance floor!

INFESTIGATION: Remember those massive cockroaches that ate my rations I told you of a week ago? I saw PHILICO feeding one of them earlier! Is he keeping them as pets, or is he just bonkers? Either way, it’s bugging me!

ALTITUDE ATTITDE: QUINTUS has done it again. The hangry hulk was quite defensive when I quizzed them about their morning meet-up with one of the young ladies of the group. Maybe it’s the exertion, but I swear I made VONNE blush when I mentioned his name. Both of them deny it all, but regular readers know that that always means we’re on to something!

A WHALETHY MAN: How does PROFESSOR LENN moisturize their hair in this dry mountain air? The secret is a teaspoon of whale blubber run through their luscious locks every morning! (I knew they smelled fishy!)

SHADY BUISNESS: When walking, FALEAST caries a silver signet ring in the pocket over his heart. He slips it on at night “to keep the Shades away” but refuses to let me inspect it. Could it be a sign of concealed royal blood? Or are they a member of a wealthy urban gang? There’s only one way to find out. But do I have the courage to go that route?

Never let it be said that Snoops does not do their duty as a reporter. For you, dear readers, I’ll have a hot tale to tell tomorrow! Stay tuned. -Sally ‘Snoops’ Starlingo

***

We’ve filled out our list of N1 action claims. I’ve ordered them by best to worst alibi. Araris and Flyingbooks are so low because their claims were late; they could have used publicly available information to craft a lie:

Matrim's Dice – Scanned Jondesu
Jondesu – Scanned Mat
Vonnegut – Nothing, as scanned by me
Archer – Scanned Vonnegut
Quintessential – Scanned Szeth taking an action
Szeth_Pancakes – took action seen by Quinn
Ashbringer – Used Silence ability
Illwei – nothing (same)

Flyingbooks – Scanned Illwei doing nothing
Araris – Scanned Quinn
Azmine_king – Nothing (didn’t realize they could act)
Dannex – Nothing (forgot while camping)
Pizza – [I’m guessing did nothing]

A few people have said they’re interested in scanning Ash tonight, which is understandable. However, I’d caution against having too many people do it. Simply put, it’s an easy action to fake; there’s a good chance they will self-protect, so elims can easily submit the NK and claim to have spied on Ash, already knowing the result.

If the elims choose their scan choices, they can also set up something where two of them pretend to scan each other. That’s why having a chain system assigned by Ash works best; it’s harder to hack. We then report in PMs to Ash what we got, to avoid people basing their lies on what other people say. 

Regarding the Jondesu thing, it felt mostly like people moving because they didn't think they were on the right track. I actually give Flyingbooks credit for coming in late and pushing a village wagon. It seems like bad timing for an elim not under pressure just to pad the margins. 

[Quintessential]

18 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I’m very suspicious of the late votes on me now. The earlier ones I’ve expressed my feelings on, but piling on seems odd to me. I’ll read them over again and weigh in more later.

I think the piling on at the end mostly happened because Ash claimed with 10 minutes left in the cycle, so there wasn't much recourse except to vote one of the other main targets. And I, for one, didn't want to vote Illwei : P

Edited May 3, 2021 by Quintessential

[---]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

I actually give Flyingbooks credit for coming in late and pushing a village wagon

I actually disagree here: books moving back to ash at the last second was a poiintless move onto a vanity wagon at that point. Im leaning silence vil rn, but id call it e/e if ash flips elim. Regardless i think books could be an elim if ash is village, because either 1. Not wanting to flip jon vil, 2. Not wanting to kill a teammate (jon), or 3. Didnt want to seem like a piggybacker on jon.

Idk i need to think more when im not on mobile, but i wouldnt call books "pushing" ash with 2 minutes left in the cycle

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Idk i need to think more when im not on mobile, but i wouldnt call books "pushing" ash with 2 minutes left in the cycle

Yeah, that vote did seem a little weird to me too : P totally pointless, so it seemed more like avoiding a main train or intentionally projecting indecision than anything. Whether that could be a village move, idk, but I think those are usually elim-ish tells?

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Hey, what's upppp?

Anyway, for my action I used Listen at the Door on Quinn/Ash. There was really nothing special about that pair - I was just going for someone random. It ended up failing.

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Hey, what's upppp?

Anyway, for my action I used Listen at the Door on Quinn/Ash. There was really nothing special about that pair - I was just going for someone random. It ended up failing.

Why did it fail? There is like no reason it should have failed. I just relooked at the rules back and front and I... don't think it should have failed.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why did it fail? There is like no reason it should have failed. I just relooked at the rules back and front and I... don't think it should have failed.

I think it must be because they didn't have any PM's. I mean, Quinn did say that she wouldn't be doing that many PM's this game, so that makes sense.

[Quintessential]

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why did it fail? There is like no reason it should have failed. I just relooked at the rules back and front and I... don't think it should have failed.

Yeah, I actually asked about that, because I also got a failed message when I scanned your PMs with Illwei. Turns out that just means those people didn't PM that turn : P

[Mat]

Ok. I assumed that it would say that the people didn't have a PM specifically as opposed to a fail message, but since both my scans have come back with something there wasn't really a reason for me to think that.

We do have a PM, just hadn't used it since... D1 :P.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

My reads thus far:

Mat: Mild Vil

Azmine: Very Vil

Illwei: Very Mild Elim

Archer: Vil

Quinn: Mild Elim

Szeth: Confirmed Vil

Dannex: Mild Elim

Jondesu: Null

Ash: Vil

Araris: Null

Vonn: Null

Pizza: Null

Books: Very Mild Vil

[---]

Just now, Szeth_Pancakes said:

My reads thus far:

Mat: Mild Vil

Azmine: Very Vil

Illwei: Very Mild Elim

Archer: Vil

Quinn: Mild Elim

Szeth: Confirmed Vil

Dannex: Mild Elim

Jondesu: Null

Ash: Vil

Araris: Null

Vonn: Null

Pizza: Null

Books: Very Mild Vil

Can you give any reasonings behing these? Specifically the nulls

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Just now, Illwei said:

Can you give any reasonings behing these? Specifically the nulls

I'm lazy, but okay.

Mat's tone just feels kind of Vil.

Azimine's mistake that he could not post at night would likely have been cleared up in the elim doc.

Illwei just seems kind of suspicious. I can't put my finger on why.

Archer's detailed text walls of analysis feel very vil to me.

Quinn was quick to accuse Araris, and when I called her out on that, she switched to saying how I was so suspicious, instead of defending herself.

Szeth is just very, very vil. Just... the most vil.

Dannex's tone and activity level feels suspicious to me.

I'll have to reread D2 to see how Jondesu was being suspicious, but nothing he's said seems too suspicious to me.

Basically everyone is agreeing that Ash seems very vil right now.

While Araris had a couple suspicious posts in D1, he just doesn't feel very suspicious any more.

Vonn hasn't said anything that read to me as very suspicious, or very vil.

Pizza, well, is Pizza.

Books has been very inactive, but the little they've said feels vil to me.