Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Ashbringer]

What part about to avoid Danforth deciding the exe do you not understand... it was 2 votes Illwei (after Araris switched), 1 vote on each Jondesu, Mat, Quinn, Pizza, Ash, Szeth. As you pointed out, that is not ideal.

As for Illwei vs Jondesu... hmm. Jondesu would be unaware of Gears' style unless he's been secretly doing a ton of background research, and it sure didn't seem that way when he was playing my QF. But he'd also be unaware that Gears has previously died a lot D1.

... eh, I think I like it more than Illwei. Jondesu. 

@Jondesu

The Scribe has a halved rate of failure on their Action-Scan ability, and their anon post gives them the ability to out Night Killers anonymously. Plus if it's hitting a suspected Scribe or just taking a N1 potshot, I would think most players would go for the role. 

[Quintessential]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

The Scribe has a halved rate of failure on their Action-Scan ability, and their anon post gives them the ability to out Night Killers anonymously. Plus if it's hitting a suspected Scribe or just taking a N1 potshot, I would think most players would go for the role. 

Why would anyone need to out Night Killers anonymously? villagers can become more trusted by doing it publicly, and it's not like it puts us at unnecessary risk because everyone can action scan. I suppose the point about N1 potshots and the halved failure rate is fair, but tbh I still think it's a rather slim thing to go off of--like, maybe Gears is the Scribe and maybe killing the Scribe is a little bit good for us, so we should kill Gears? Idk, I'd think it would more be because Gears is Gears than because somebody possibly thought Gears was a Scribe.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Quintessential

[Ashbringer]

Players who out killing Elims will usually have a short life span  might not be an unnecessary risk for the village, but the specific player it certainly is. Especially if there's only one Silence around.

The thing is, "because Gears is Gears" means that someone found a reason to kill Gears off of... three poem posts. Or, off of reputation. Both of those can tell us a lot.

[Azmine_king]

2 hours ago, Dannex said:

Azmine_king- Null/Mild Elim. That bit about not knowing you can talk at night just seems kinda weird. But then I don’t see what an Elim would gain from claiming that either, so Null-ish for you.

I would think there would be a bit more to get a read off of me than one interaction. Not really sure what you mean by weird here.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Wait hold up, just took a look at my notes-

• Jondesu (2): Mat, Araris
• Mat (1): Jondesu
• Quinn (1): Szeth
• Pizza (1): Archer
• Ash (1): Quinn
• Szeth (1): vonnegut, (Azmine)
• Illwei (1): Dannex

Are the votes really that spread out?? There's like four hours and a little bit left, guys. That's not ideal.

Agree, I can't really do much to help here, but I'd like to see a lynch between Szeth and Jondesu.

2 hours ago, Dannex said:

Ashbringer- Null. Kinda falling into the same camp as Illwei, (e.g. lotta posts, little content in those posts) but I haven’t done enough of a review to feel comfortable reading you Elim.

2 hours ago, Dannex said:

Illwei- Elim. Upon reviewing some of illwei’s posts, they seem to not really be saying much. Definitely seems less active than usual, like maybe they aren’t really trying to solve the game. Most of their posts seem to be banter or direct responses to other things, no unprovoked analysis.

If they are similar this game why is Illwei hard elim and Ash is null?

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

How are there seven people viewing the thread and none of them have posted in...

I don't even know.

To avoid Danforth deciding the exe, Illwei. Anyone has other ideas, I'm all ears. (I'd be willing to move to @Quintessential as well... Mat less so but maybe.)

(@Illwei because for some reason it only wants to work down here...)

42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

What part about to avoid Danforth deciding the exe do you not understand... it was 2 votes Illwei (after Araris switched), 1 vote on each Jondesu, Mat, Quinn, Pizza, Ash, Szeth. As you pointed out, that is not ideal.

As for Illwei vs Jondesu... hmm. Jondesu would be unaware of Gears' style unless he's been secretly doing a ton of background research, and it sure didn't seem that way when he was playing my QF. But he'd also be unaware that Gears has previously died a lot D1.

... eh, I think I like it more than Illwei. Jondesu. 

@Jondesu

The Scribe has a halved rate of failure on their Action-Scan ability, and their anon post gives them the ability to out Night Killers anonymously. Plus if it's hitting a suspected Scribe or just taking a N1 potshot, I would think most players would go for the role. 

Besides the fact I town read Illwei, I dont like this series of votes. With only two posts between them, theyre awfully quick to hop on Jondesu.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Azmine_king

[Archer]

The following is a joke:

BIG BRAIN TIME. We have two sure-fire ways of catching an elim: we know for a fact that someone Illwei voted on D1 is an elim. We also know that the bottom of Ash’s list is village, but their second or third prediction will be right. Illwei voted for Quinn, Azmine, and Dannex. Ash’s second and third choices are Quinn and Araris. Therefore, it’s obvious that Quinn is an elim!

*

It’s possible that the elim missed this, but Gears cast a secret vote D1, meaning they could not have also submitted the Scribe note. Regardless, Ash seems to think they were the Scribe who made the posted RP, and I believe there’s enough mutual affection between the two of them that Ashbringer would have held off NKing Gears. In our PM, Gears told me D1 that they wanted to keep Ash alive because he liked his RP. In conclusion, if you’re evil, Ash, shame on you. :P. Given my main suspicion was based around something that’s not there, I think I’ll soft village read Ash for now and look for elims elsewhere.

I didn’t expect Pizza to actually reveal their role, but that’s cool. It appears this game has vanillas, even ones without items. I’m going to make the working assumption that they’re village.

Sidenote: If the elims have a mask, we’re in trouble, because they can just have their teammate with a mask submit the kill every time and be unscannable. If the GMs went light on item distribution, I’m leaning towards thinking that the elims probably don’t have a mask among them. Or maybe they do and we’re packing more heat elsewhere, like having a crossbow.  

As for the reactions to the Randby CW, Illwei at least said they’d be willing to vote for someone else, and was brainstorming options. Whereas Ashbringer tried to spin it as an info kill: “And even if RandBy doesn't flip Elim, people supporting/not supporting the exe is a decent amount of info to start, especially with a lot of night scans.” Right now I’m side-eying a Araris-Ashbringer team because looking at the end of D1, they were pretty in sync. Yes, I know I just village read Ashbringer, but right now my suspect pool is Jondesu, Szeth, Flyingbooks, and Dannex because I’ve been crossing everyone else off my list. There’s no way that’s right.

I disagree with all of Dannex's elim reads, so that's interesting. Weird they elim-read Illwei and not Ashbringer, odd they elim-read Azmine over not taking night actions when they themselves didn't either. (I assume you didn't because you were camping?)

Here’s what we have for night action claims that I can remember off the top of my head. It’d be great if we could fill this in:

Vonnegut – Nothing, as scanned by me
Archer – Scanned Vonnegut
Quintessential – Scanned Szeth taking an action
Szeth_Pancakes – took action seen by Quinn
Matrim's Dice – Scanned Jondesu
Jondesu – Scanned Mat
Azmine_king – Nothing (didn’t realize they could act)
Illwei – nothing (same)
Araris -
Dannex -
Flyingbooks -
Ashbringer –
Pizza –

[Azmine_king]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

Azmine_king – Nothing (didn’t realize they could act)

Where'd this come from?

[Ashbringer]

13 minutes ago, Archer said:

It’s possible that the elim missed this, but Gears cast a secret vote D1, meaning they could not have also submitted the Scribe note. Regardless, Ash seems to think they were the Scribe who made the posted RP, and I believe there’s enough mutual affection between the two of them that Ashbringer would have held off NKing Gears. In our PM, Gears told me D1 that they wanted to keep Ash alive because he liked his RP. In conclusion, if you’re evil, Ash, shame on you. :P. Given my main suspicion was based around something that’s not there, I think I’ll soft village read Ash for now and look for elims elsewhere.

Hmm. @Elandera, does the Scribe's AnonPost need an Action? I was under the impression that it didn't, but I'm now seeing that's not really mentioned...

Also, nice to see that PM safety is well maintained in the game with PM spying. Sigh...

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @Elandera, does the Scribe's AnonPost need an Action? I was under the impression that it didn't, but I'm now seeing that's not really mentioned...

Sending a scribe's note is an action.

[Ashbringer]

Ah.

Well, let's see if there's another Scribe with anything to say... unless anyone wants to fess up to anon-voting for Gears.

[---]

Heyo Checked the thread a few times but was at work all day so

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

so here’s a read list to maybe provoke some discussion

coolio. First me. 

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

Definitely seems less active than usual, like maybe they aren’t really trying to solve the game.

I've mentioned that I will be less active multiple times- though, despite this I am still the top poster (today not counting) so that's a flawed argument. Hey, at least this spews me/danex not e/e because he is definitely not paying attention to me as much as he would if we were teammates :P. 

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

no unprovoked analysis

no provoked analysis either, so-

oki, moving on. 

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

Jondesu- Confused. Definitely need to look at you more, can’t seem to get any sort of stable read on you. 

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

Vonnegut- Confused. It’s always hard for me to get a read on people I haven’t played with before, but I think you’re feeling semi-vil? Maybe?

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

Ashbringer- Null. Kinda falling into the same camp as Illwei, (e.g. lotta posts, little content in those posts) but I haven’t done enough of a review to feel comfortable reading you Elim.

3 hours ago, Dannex said:

Szeth_Pancakes- Null. Haven’t seen a ton from Szeth that I’d consider AI, so null for now. I’d need to go back through their posts for a more acurrate read. 

Noted.

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, so looking at Ash and Illwei as promised, I definitely am more suspicious of Illwei than of Ash. Actually I feel like Ash played C1 very similar to how I often do. An early vote on someone not saying much, and he stuck to his guns when Randby became the final choice. Illwei, on the other hand, ran for the hills, so to speak, when the Randby train picked up. Both Illwei and Books mentioned that they were fairly sure Randby would flip village, but neither of them offered up a serious alternative. Basically feels like an insincere attempt at trying to get village cred. So I'm fine having my vote where it is now, but I'd also be down for an Illwei grinch as well. Or Books, who still hasn't really given us much to work with, except for that one post which I don't like.

I did try to get discussion going about alternatives- you can go back and check. I am gone for most of the day so unfortunately I have only about two hours at EoD to look back through everything.

Noted:
 - Comparing me to books, a comparison I don't feel fits, as books wasn't on Randby at all
 - Comparing me and Ash- why did you pick us two? 

I can see Araris/Books being E/E and also Araris/Ash, though Araris/Books making more sense. 

Basically then in thread we see Danex piggyback off of the Ash/Illwei comparison from Araris, and also ending up with about the same reads. Danex/Araris not E/E.  Definitely feels more like something that makes more sense if Danex is an Elim imo. 

Now someone please respond while I work on my next post :P. 

[Quintessential]

@Illwei hey how did I not merit even a single mention in that post smh

Also, this is giving me deja vu: Araris/Books = e/e, Araris/Ash = e/e, but Araris/Books makes most sense was literally my thought process late-game in LG75 oof

[---]

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

@Illwei hey how did I not merit even a single mention in that post smh

Smhhhh patience

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

On other sites, people can't talk at Night (I know, weird, right?) so I can see it happening. But. Regardless of Az's alignment, I'd have expected Illwei to warn him about that... hmmm maybe this makes me think Illwei is weird this game  (not really, I still mostly think she's vil).

I honestly almost did, but decided against it because I thought he would see the people talking in thread, and if he didn't then I assumed his Teammates would tell him

whiiiiiiich is why I'm reading him more village :P. I don't think Az would think of not posting at night to try and get people to read him village- er- no offence az :P. 

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Illwei recently got a job, which is (I would guess) why she's been less active this game. And banter/direct-responses-to-other-things are like, Illwei's main form of playing.

Responding to things is easier when I have very little time, (people, please respond to me in thread I want to talkkkk :P) and I also have been doing things (@danex) but I haven't made any long analysis posts because I just simply don't have the time this game :P. 

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Hmmm you're very ambivalent about the two people who've been the biggest focus so far this game

I mean I also have no clue about Jondesu and Szeth, so throw me in there too :P. 

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

but... at least they've actually done stuff that's sus. Edit: (Ash)

Honestly was hoping you'd stay on ash, I was thinking of joining you :P. 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Illwei
Weird formatting

[Archer]

37 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Where'd this come from?

Did you take an action last night? I assumed you didn't because you didn't PM, but that in retrospect, that's probably wrong innit. If we can get everyone's action claims, it narrows down who submitted the NK to those who can't show they did something, as that takes an action 

Quick chaos edit: Ash

Edited May 2, 2021 by Archer

[Azmine_king]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Did you take an action last night? I assumed you didn't because you didn't PM, but that in retrospect, that's probably wrong innit. If we can get everyone's action claims, it narrows down who submitted the NK to those who can't show they did something, as that takes an action 

Oh I totally didn't take an action but you were quick to make that assumption

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Honestly was hoping you'd stay on ash, I was thinking of joining you :P. 

Hmmm. Well if I switch. And you vote him too. That does put him in the lead, since Archer just voted him... I'll do it if you do it?

[---]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't get the Illwei train. Did Ash even mention suspicion of her?

I was...what, third in his list of killing people? but yeah, thoughts. 

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

The thing is, "because Gears is Gears" means that someone found a reason to kill Gears off of... three poem posts. Or, off of reputation. Both of those can tell us a lot.

Honestly, my mind first goes to someone not wanting to have to read Gear's posts, and then goes to the killers of Stink in the AG, and then goes to you there, buddy. 

59 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Besides the fact I town read Illwei, I dont like this series of votes. With only two posts between them, theyre awfully quick to hop on Jondesu.

My first thought here was that I Elim-read Ash and therefore Jon, but then Ash hopped back on Jon, so I don't know what to think here. Woop. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

“And even if RandBy doesn't flip Elim, people supporting/not supporting the exe is a decent amount of info to start, especially with a lot of night scans.”

Which is my que to go: where's the info, Ash? :P. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I didn’t expect Pizza to actually reveal their role, but that’s cool. It appears this game has vanillas, even ones without items. I’m going to make the working assumption that they’re village.

The more open someone is like this, then it makes me think that they're not village.

You know, when I asked for responses, I was hoping for- well- youknow. Responses. Where you respond. to things :P. 

[Quintessential]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

You know, when I asked for responses, I was hoping for- well- youknow. Responses. Where you respond. to things :P. 

I mean... I could respond if you want to but basically everything you said just now makes sense to me and I don't really have anything to add or disagree with, so... it would basically just be me quoting a thing you said and then being like "yup" and then quoting another thing you said and then being like "that too" and so on.

Though you still haven't said whether you'll vote Ash with me ;-;

[---]

Just now, Quintessential said:

Though you still haven't said whether you'll vote Ash with me ;-;

ash

[Quintessential]

Coolio, Ash (Jondesu)

[Ashbringer]

Well, better 30 minutes before rollover than 5...

Give me a second.

[danex]

1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

If they are similar this game why is Illwei hard elim and Ash is null?

I’ve looked through a lot of Illwei’s posts, but not a ton of Ash’s posts. My Ash read should say something like “need to review” not “null” that’s my bad. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Weird they elim-read Illwei and not Ashbringer,

see above

1 hour ago, Archer said:

(I assume you didn't because you were camping?)

that is correct, forgot to submit one before I left

39 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Basically then in thread we see Danex piggyback off of the Ash/Illwei comparison from Araris, and also ending up with about the same reads.

I came to my conclusions independently, hadn’t read Araris’s post when I wrote mine. 

[Ashbringer]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

Besides the fact I town read Illwei, I dont like this series of votes. With only two posts between them, theyre awfully quick to hop on Jondesu.

My first thought here was that I Elim-read Ash and therefore Jon, but then Ash hopped back on Jon, so I don't know what to think here. Woop. 

Again, I voted Illwei because the exe was going to be decided by TWO VOTES and Illwei had the most at the time. When Jondesu became a better option (and he still hasn't responded) I took that as an option.

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Honestly, my mind first goes to someone not wanting to have to read Gear's posts, and then goes to the killers of Stink in the AG, and then goes to you there, buddy. 

Excluding Quinn who was dead at the time, I'm the only AG Elim in this game (unless I'm completely forgetting who Scarlet was again). I honestly don't see the connection here besides the fact you chose an example which points directly at me.

21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Which is my que to go: where's the info, Ash? :P. 

That we should look at the people who jumped on an exe quickly... you know, like Jondesu did... and that opposition doesn't really indicate anything at all. Sure there's not much info from that, but it's more than we would have gotten from a random exe or worse one decided by secret votes.

 

Not sure what else you're asking me, as you seem to quote people talking about me instead of quoting me...

[Mat]

I’ll stay with my Jondesu vote. I don’t see enough reasons (that I agree with) on the others to switch, but I’m sure it’ll play out interestingly :P. 

[Azmine_king]

I dont get the CFD to Ash, I think we should stay on Jondesu

[Quintessential]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I’ll stay with my Jondesu vote. I don’t see enough reasons (that I agree with) on the others to switch, but I’m sure it’ll play out interestingly :P. 

Would you accept the reason of "keeping Danforth from messing with the outcome"?  

1 minute ago, Azmine_king said:

I dont get the CFD to Ash, I think we should stay on Jondesu

I assume you're using the royal we in this scenario, since A. you can't vote, and B. when you thought you could, you voted Szeth?