Dalinar and the Contest (read with caution)

[Bejarden]

11 minutes ago, Tani said:

And it takes specialness to become a cognitive shadow. As far as we know, nobody cared about CS-ing Gavilar.

 

Stormfather. I bet Sanderson will write Book 5 prologue in Gavilar's POV. And he might be CS-ed.

Gavilar says “Tell Thaidakar he’s to late” I am going to take this to mean he figured out to become a CS 

My pet theory is that he was working with Cultivation somehow.

He also says “ I have figured out how to join the realm of gods I will never die my kingdom will never die” ( Paraphrased RoW)

Yeah I’m pretty sure book 5 feast will be Gavilars POV 

[AquaRegia]

3 hours ago, Tani said:

Gavilar is dead. He wasn't Invested...

Spoiler

Kelsier was dead, we all saw him get killed.  Look what happened.

We have no way of knowing Gavilar wasn't Invested when he died... and plenty of clues that he might have been, multiple different ways.  The Stormfather is definitely one good possibility.  Chumming about with Heralds is another.  How does he know about Shadesmar?  About Thaidakar and Worldhopping?  How did he get Anti-Voidlight spheres?  He tells Navani EXPLICITLY that he's doing things she can't even imagine, and that he's seeking immortality.  If you read that other topic I posted a link to, it's discussed pretty thoroughly, so I won't rehash all the details here.

I accept the possibility that this idea may be wrong.  But I do NOT think there is any evidence disproving it at this point, and there's LOTS of evidence to support it.  I'm betting one RoW meal that Gavilar comes back in book 5.

[+mdross81]

I've sorted through what I think are the 5 possible outcomes of the contest of champions based on the terms discussed, and which seems most likely.

Possibility 1: Dalinar wins

• Impact on Roshar: Odium returns Herdaz and Alethkar, but keeps the other lands he's conquered. Odium vows to cease hostilities and maintain the peace
• Impact on wider Cosmere: fairly minimal; although Odium does say that he will be able to focus his attentions on sending agents to the rest of the cosmere using what he had conquered
• Narrative impact on SA back 5: kinda boring; it's hard to see what the conflict would be and why the back 5 would focus on the Heralds (whose original purpose was to seal away the Fused)
• Likelihood: moderate to low

Possibility 2: Odium wins

• Impact on Roshar: Odium keeps everything he's won, but will still cease hostilities.
• Impact on wider Cosmere: greater than with Possibility 1; Odium remains bound to the system but now has a wider pool of Rosharans to send out as agents, most notably the terrifying prospect of Fused Dalinar (assuming Odium can figure out the Connection problem)
• Narrative impact on SA back 5: less boring; sets the stage for a longer-term rebellion by our remaining heroes; although Odium still offered to cease hostilities one imagines that would not continue if the humans continue to fight; fits with the focus on the Heralds and possibly trying to reforge the Oathpact to seal away the Fused again
• Likelihood: moderate to high

Possibility 3: Odium breaks the contract

• Impact on Roshar: pretty freaking big; Odium would be in Dalinar's power and would have a hole in his soul that would allow Cultivation to kill him
• Impact on wider Cosmere: also big; removes the biggest known threat to the remaining Shards
• Narrative impact on SA back 5: again this would seem boring; what's the conflict unless Cultivation does something crazy?
• Likelihood: very low, too much has been invested in the danger of Odium as a Shard and Taravangian as a vessel

Possibility 4: Dalinar breaks the contract

• Impact on Roshar: big; Dalinar would be in Odium's power and the restrictions Honor placed placed on him - chaining him to the Rosharan system and preventing him from using his power on most individuals - would be void; Odium would no longer need to cease hostilities but we know that he mainly wants out of the Rosharan system, so maybe not super terrible for Roshar
• Impact on wider Cosmere: terrible
• Narrative impact on SA back 5: it becomes harder to imagine any kind of effective rebellion against Odium, which would make it all the more satisfying if they could pull it off
• Likelihood: moderate to low, I initially considered this just low, but given the prevalence of the child-champion theory (to which I do not subscribe, but which I think properly belongs in this category: one champion is capable of killing the other but refuses) I bumped it up to moderate to low

Possibility 5: The contest results in a tie; no winner; some other shenanigans

• Impact: ???  ??? ???
• Likelihood: moderate to high, if only because it's been heavily foreshadowed and seems to keep the most options open for where the story goes, both for Roshar and the wider Cosmere

That's where I come down. Most likely outcomes are tie/shenanigans or Odium winning the contest. Are there other possibilities I'm missing?

[LewsTherinTelescope]

40 minutes ago, mdross81 said:

Likelihood: moderate to low, I initially considered this just low, but given the prevalence of the child-champion theory (to which I do not subscribe, but which I think properly belongs in this category: one champion is capable of killing the other but refuses) I bumped it up to moderate to low

I think Dalinar willingly breaking the contract is unlikely, but T tricking him into it feels possible to me (though I'm still not sure if I'd call it likely or not). For example, indirectly keeping the champion from showing up, not directly harming them but maybe trapping them, or putting someone they love at risk (for an example I don't consider particularly likely, holding Lirin hostage if Kal is the champion). Another possibility could be Odium's champion goading someone on Dalinar's side into attacking them (another example I do not believe but have seen proposed, picking Moash and then goading Gav into killing him and breaking the contract).

Actually, thought on the latter: if Odium's champion goes on a murder rampage inside the Tower shortly before the duel, would someone fighting back count as harming them and breaking the agreement?

These all feel too anticlimactic, though.

[+mdross81]

14 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

I think Dalinar willingly breaking the contract is unlikely, but T tricking him into it feels possible to me (though I'm still not sure if I'd call it likely or not). For example, indirectly keeping the champion from showing up, not directly harming them but maybe trapping them, or putting someone they love at risk (for an example I don't consider particularly likely, holding Lirin hostage if Kal is the champion). Another possibility could be Odium's champion goading someone on Dalinar's side into attacking them (another example I do not believe but have seen proposed, picking Moash and then goading Gav into killing him and breaking the contract).

Actually, thought on the latter: if Odium's champion goes on a murder rampage inside the Tower shortly before the duel, would someone fighting back count as harming them and breaking the agreement?

These all feel too anticlimactic, though.

Fair point. When it was Rayse, I would have thought that this:

Quote

We each send a willing champion, allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side's forces.

would rule out the possibility of keeping the other side's champion from showing up (even indirectly) or provoking someone on other side to harm the champion. He did say he'd hold to the spirit of the deal. With Taravangian, I'm less certain.

But just as I was reviewing that line, another thought occurred to me. It doesn't say unharmed by the other side's forces. It says "unharmed by either side's forces," which suggests that neither side's forces can harm either champion. If someone on Dalinar's own side harms Dalinar or his champion, wouldn't that violate the terms? Or am I getting too tied up in the language?

 

[LewsTherinTelescope]

9 minutes ago, mdross81 said:

When it was Rayse, I would have thought that this:

Quote

We each send a willing champion, allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side's forces.

would rule out the possibility of keeping the other side's champion from showing up (even indirectly) or provoking someone on other side to harm the champion. He did say he'd hold to the spirit of the deal. With Taravangian, I'm less certain.

Agreed, I did genuinely believe Rayse's "spirit of the deal" thing (mainly for the meta reason that it lets Brandon handwave away all the loopholes like "marry the entire world", lol). With T, he very clearly is looking for a loophole, so I don't know that that holds him.

11 minutes ago, mdross81 said:

But just as I was reviewing that line, another thought occurred to me. It doesn't say unharmed by the other side's forces. It says "unharmed by either side's forces," which suggests that neither side's forces can harm either champion. If someone on Dalinar's own side harms Dalinar or his champion, wouldn't that violate the terms? Or am I getting too tied up in the language?

Hmm, yeah, I'd think it would. Question is, why?

And what about neutral factions? Let's say for some reason Thude assassinates Dalinar or something. What happens?

[+mdross81]

4 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Agreed, I did genuinely believe Rayse's "spirit of the deal" thing (mainly for the meta reason that it lets Brandon handwave away all the loopholes like "marry the entire world", lol). With T, he very clearly is looking for a loophole, so I don't know that that holds him.

Hmm, yeah, I'd think it would. Question is, why?

And what about neutral factions? Let's say for some reason Thude assassinates Dalinar or something. What happens?

I don't read the language to apply to neutral forces so I don't know that that would have an impact.

In terms of why someone from Dalinar's own forces might harm him, I guess it matters how broadly we define "forces." I imagine there are any number of humans from coalition countries that may have been wronged by the Blackthorn at one time or another (heck, the Mink lost his family fighting against the Dalinar-led Alethi forces). If someone like that is part of Dalinar's forces and they exact revenge on him, does that count? From a narrative standpoint, that's probably way too out of the blue. Then again, it kinda ties in with Odium's strategy over the years of hanging back and letting the humans destroy themselves.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

23 minutes ago, mdross81 said:

In terms of why someone from Dalinar's own forces might harm him, I guess it matters how broadly we define "forces." I imagine there are any number of humans from coalition countries that may have been wronged by the Blackthorn at one time or another (heck, the Mink lost his family fighting against the Dalinar-led Alethi forces). If someone like that is part of Dalinar's forces and they exact revenge on him, does that count? From a narrative standpoint, that's probably way too out of the blue. Then again, it kinda ties in with Odium's strategy over the years of hanging back and letting the humans destroy themselves.

True.

23 minutes ago, mdross81 said:

I don't read the language to apply to neutral forces so I don't know that that would have an impact.

That's what I mean. What happens if a neutral force kills the champion and a new one thus can't be picked in time?

[+mdross81]

7 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

That's what I mean. What happens if a neutral force kills the champion and a new one thus can't be picked in time?

Ah, ok, now I see what you were saying. Then we're in a position where one side doesn't produce a champion at the appointed time. That would be a problem.

[Waffles]

I think the champion just has to be at Urithuru at the appointed time. If the champion runs off and worldhops away well that would cause some problems

[Procrastination]

 Wow, didn’t think so many people would respond to this so fast.

So glad that you aren’t all, “It has to be a child champion because that would work so well!!!”, because if that did happen, it would be a teensy bit anticlimactic.

I support the Gavilar theory, because

Spoiler

Kelsier didn’t appear to be invested at the time, but he’s a CS so it’s possible that Gavilar was too.

Also, is anyone else wondering if Gavilar was chosen to receive the visions first, and Dalinar’s the (better) replacement?? In RoW, doesn’t Gavilar say something about “uniting them”? Was that from visions, and he just didn’t let anyone know because they would think he was mad and it would tarnish his precious legacy, or was that just another part of his “I will be immortal and live forever” speech? (I think of it as a speech, even though he was just talking to Navini. He was saying he was going to become a god!!)

Anyways, keep posting your theories!!

[+mdross81]

16 minutes ago, rosharian_cat said:

 Wow, didn’t think so many people would respond to this so fast.

So glad that you aren’t all, “It has to be a child champion because that would work so well!!!”, because if that did happen, it would be a teensy bit anticlimactic.

I support the Gavilar theory, because

  Hide contents

Kelsier didn’t appear to be invested at the time, but he’s a CS so it’s possible that Gavilar was too.

Also, is anyone else wondering if Gavilar was chosen to receive the visions first, and Dalinar’s the (better) replacement?? In RoW, doesn’t Gavilar say something about “uniting them”? Was that from visions, and he just didn’t let anyone know because they would think he was mad and it would tarnish his precious legacy, or was that just another part of his “I will be immortal and live forever” speech? (I think of it as a speech, even though he was just talking to Navini. He was saying he was going to become a god!!)

Anyways, keep posting your theories!!

Gavilar was shown the visions first, and received the message to unite them. He told Taravangian about it in the night he died. See WoR Interlude 14

[Procrastination]

Okay, thanks. Wasn’t sure if that had been confirmed or not. I like Dalinar better as a person to unite them, his past makes it even more interesting (though he makes me very frustrated sometimes, see my post in the Unpopular Opinions topic to see one of many examples).

[Eternal Khol]

I feel like Odium is certainly going to win. 

I also feel like Cultivation will release him at some point. After he's learned and she's certain he's not like Rayse

[vonnegut]

On 4/22/2021 at 1:35 AM, Eternal Khol said:

I feel like Odium is certainly going to win. 

I also feel like Cultivation will release him at some point. After he's learned and she's certain he's not like Rayse

I'm falling in between here.. I think Odium is going to win, but he doesn't have to be released by Cultivation to cause major havoc.  Because he'll have the Blackthorn to command his forces on other planets.  He can just sit back and be the brain behind it.  Which is a terrifying and awesome idea.

As far as what that does to the "Back Five" of Stormlight... I hesitate to speculate too much, because if you'd ask me after Book 1 what I thought would be happening in Book 4, I would have been WILDLY off base.
But, I think Todium will stick to the deal-- he gets his buddy Dalinar to be his undying war-slave, to *save* the rest of the Cosmere, and on Roshar he gets to mess with everyone's head.  I wouldn't even rule out the Singers/Humans ending up becoming allies against Todium in the back 5.  Mortals vs Immortals (Todium and Cultivation possibly being evil together).  If Hoid and the Radiants and the Fused could loop in some other Shards, they might have a chance.  

I just see the Back 5 as upping the stakes DRAMATICALLY-- I don't see the Singer/Human conflict being dragged out for another five books as holding enough tension.  Especially when BranSan tends to escalate to bigger and bigger threats.

 

And I really want Todium to be the big bad of the entire cosmere.  When he ascended, I *SCREAMED*.  It's the best thing that has ever happened.  I can't lose him so soon.

[Eternal Khol]

10 hours ago, vonnegut said:

I'm falling in between here.. I think Odium is going to win, but he doesn't have to be released by Cultivation to cause major havoc.  Because he'll have the Blackthorn to command his forces on other planets.

thats true.
Im certain Todium will win. Less so on Cultivation releasing him. Im still not sure what to think of her.

Im sure the singer/human conflict will come to an end pretty quick. The whole planet is tired. Its time for something new. And with Todium, that change has arrived. 

[vonnegut]

1 hour ago, Eternal Khol said:

thats true.
Im certain Todium will win. Less so on Cultivation releasing him. Im still not sure what to think of her.

I'm in the middle of my first full SA re-read since RoW came out, and *just* last night made it to RoW, so my opinion might change as I go through it again, but my opinion of Cultivation...  she is NOT a good guy.  The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.  And Cultivation itself is not necessarily a benign force.  Neutral *at best.*  My impression (which again, may change) is that she manipulated the death of Rayse not out of kind intent, but out of self-preservation-- he was not shy about his desire to kill her.  

And, because I just finished Oathbringer, this is fresh in my mind, and (forgive me if this is a "duh" that everyone already knows) when Rayse is confronted with Dalinar raising up Honor's Perpendicularity, he doesn't say "No, I killed you," he says "No, WE killed you."  And I'd been assuming or had read somewhere that the "we" was Autonomy, who is buddy-buddy with Odium anyway.  But doesn't it make more sense that the "WE" is him and Cultivation?  Taking out Honor together, and then turning on each other?  I'm sure this has been brought up before, and it seems to fit the pieces together.  Cultivation may not even disapprove of Todium's aim to "SAVE" the Cosmere, as long as she thinks that Todium would not include her on his kill-list (he will, though).

[+mdross81]

38 minutes ago, vonnegut said:

when Rayse is confronted with Dalinar raising up Honor's Perpendicularity, he doesn't say "No, I killed you," he says "No, WE killed you."  And I'd been assuming or had read somewhere that the "we" was Autonomy, who is buddy-buddy with Odium anyway.  But doesn't it make more sense that the "WE" is him and Cultivation?  Taking out Honor together, and then turning on each other?

This makes me think of Brandon’s suspicious laugh in this WoB:

Quote

FirstSelector

Was Cultivation close enough to when Odium got  Honor, to know how to fight back?

Brandon Sanderson

Heheheheh. I would say yes.

FirstSelector

And Cultivation, is she--

Brandon Sanderson

She is still there.

FirstSelector

Alive and kicking. Okay, you've said that before--

Brandon Sanderson

She is alive and kicking.

FirstSelector

And she can probably know how to not turn her back to the--

Brandon Sanderson

Well, I mean... She has learned from the experiences of others.

Arcanum Unbounded Chicago signing (Dec. 6, 2016)

Probably shouldn’t read too much into it, but it has just always stuck out to me. 

Edited April 24, 2021 by mdross81

[Eternal Khol]

7 hours ago, vonnegut said:

but my opinion of Cultivation...  she is NOT a good guy.The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.  And Cultivation itself is not necessarily a benign force.  Neutral *at best.* 

Thats what ive been thinking of her too. She's smart and crafty enough to indirectly replace the one being keeping her in a war for thousands of years. She just knows how to play the game and i think it makes her all the more interesting.

 

7 hours ago, vonnegut said:

Cultivation may not even disapprove of Todium's aim to "SAVE" the Cosmere

I think she's fine with it. 

 

7 hours ago, vonnegut said:

But doesn't it make more sense that the "WE" is him and Cultivation?

Ive had similar thought for quite a while. Not that she turned on him or anything. But maybe she knew he was gonna die anyway so she helped/went along with it or something to learn from Honor and Odium. And the longer he was on Roshar the more he invested which should technically leave him slighty weaker.

Edited April 24, 2021 by Eternal Khol

[Weltall]

On 3/30/2021 at 8:39 AM, Tani said:

I bet Sanderson will write Book 5 prologue in Gavilar's POV.

Just in case you haven't found out yet since this was a month ago... this has already been confirmed. xD

[Quivil]

4 minutes ago, Weltall said:

Just in case you haven't found out yet since this was a month ago... this has already been confirmed. xD

WOW!!!!! Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ElMonoEstupendo]

On 24/04/2021 at 1:54 PM, vonnegut said:

I'm in the middle of my first full SA re-read since RoW came out, and *just* last night made it to RoW, so my opinion might change as I go through it again, but my opinion of Cultivation...  she is NOT a good guy.  The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.  And Cultivation itself is not necessarily a benign force.  Neutral *at best.*  My impression (which again, may change) is that she manipulated the death of Rayse not out of kind intent, but out of self-preservation-- he was not shy about his desire to kill her.  

And, because I just finished Oathbringer, this is fresh in my mind, and (forgive me if this is a "duh" that everyone already knows) when Rayse is confronted with Dalinar raising up Honor's Perpendicularity, he doesn't say "No, I killed you," he says "No, WE killed you."  And I'd been assuming or had read somewhere that the "we" was Autonomy, who is buddy-buddy with Odium anyway.  But doesn't it make more sense that the "WE" is him and Cultivation?  Taking out Honor together, and then turning on each other?  I'm sure this has been brought up before, and it seems to fit the pieces together.  Cultivation may not even disapprove of Todium's aim to "SAVE" the Cosmere, as long as she thinks that Todium would not include her on his kill-list (he will, though).

Absolutely. I think the most convincing thing is that Odium was bound away on Braize when Tanavast died and Honor was Splintered.

More than that, the gemstone archive indicates that Honor was both changing and going mad. If any Shard would resist change, it would be Honor, obsessed with rules and binding. He was being changed by the events on Roshar and it drove Tanavast insane.

Now it could still have been a benign act. They were lovers, after all. Cultivation might have killed him with his own consent, for his own good (which is a bit more morally suspect), or for some other "good" reason. For example, there being no one Vessel meant that nobody had the authority to release Odium until Dalinar came along, two and half thousand years later.

Or she could be a genuine unfeeling force for change, no matter what.

[+Branadar]

I've been relistening to SA and I horrible thought occurred to me. I read through this thread and don't see it mentioned but I might have missed it.

IF the contest of champions plays out in such a way that Dalinar becomes Todium's, it could lead to a drastic change in the nature of the Stormfather. If events take place that lead to Daliner technically breaking his oaths, the Stormfather could "die." I realize death is a confusing term for Spren, especially for one as powerful as the Stormfather, but it could mean that Stormlight is no longer easily renewable, which would be an incredible blow to the Knights Radiant. 

OR the Stormfather could become corrupted, changing the nature of the Light that is replenished, possibly harming the Knights in some way. 

 

I dunno how out there this could be, but I'm horrified by the possibilities.

[teknopathetic]

On 2021-03-30 at 9:39 AM, Tani said:

@Bejardin1250 (Tani is a she.)

 

And it takes specialness to become a cognitive shadow. As far as we know, nobody cared about CS-ing Gavilar.

 

Stormfather. I bet Sanderson will write Book 5 prologue in Gavilar's POV. And he might be CS-ed.

Well, Gavilar had a lot of interesting information and was attempting to make himself something else entirely. We don’t really know what he figured out or what is “wrong” with Roshar’s afterlife. 
 

it is entirely possible Gavilar’s deathbed statement “tell him he is too late” was about something we don’t actually know about (instead of what we assume was bringing back the desolations). 

[Halyo_Alex]

5 minutes ago, teknopathetic said:

it is entirely possible Gavilar’s deathbed statement “tell him he is too late” was about something we don’t actually know about (instead of what we assume was bringing back the desolations). 

I've kind of always suspected that Gavilar meant some super-secret plan that had nothing to do with the obvious, "bring back the desolations" plan. I never really had any guesses for what it is or why I felt that way, I just kinda had a hunch.

Also the fact that he told Szeth that he wanted Thaidakar (KELSIER) to know that he was too late, that definitely raises a LOT of red flags for me more than ever before...

It's unlikely that the "too late" is in regards to Gavilar making Anti-Voidlight, since he promptly gave Szeth, who he suspected to be working for Thaidakar, a sphere of Anti-Voidlight. It's possible he wanted to give it to him to gloat, but then anything helping Thaidakar would probably be foolish to give right to him, or so he would expect.

I dunno, i'm rambling.