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Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

Mat

By Mat
in Sanderson Elimination

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Quintessential

Quintessential

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh yeah. Food for thought, but it might be worth having Dalinar claim. I think I already know who he is, but it rules out an option for Quinn to worry about roleblocking.

And gives the elims a second important person to kill. Because Dalinar is guaranteed village vote-manip, and if things get messy next Day that could be crucial one way or another. It could be a good idea still, though.

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Mat
Mat

LG75: Alethi Politics I fear the stakes are getting slowly higher. The Highprinces still talk amongst themselves, but the severity of the conversations increases by day. A true political war is b

forget me not
forget me not

I'll join as Cara.

Mat
Mat

I mean, yeah. If I don't get enough, I'll extend signups a day or so, and if I still don't then I'll just cut down the number of Highprinces. Which you'd be surprised at how long it took me to even re

|TJ|

|TJ|

Posted
Posted

@Quintessential, you did mention this before but I forgot and well, trying to search for the post would be... well this is easier. Whom did you block in C1-C3? I just remember Striker in one of those cycles.

Also, don't forget to mention whom you're blocking in that last minute post of yours. 

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Quintessential

Quintessential

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Quintessential, you did mention this before but I forgot and well, trying to search for the post would be... well this is easier. Whom did you block in C1-C3? I just remember Striker in one of those cycles.

Also, don't forget to mention whom you're blocking in that last minute post of yours. 

C1: Araris
C2: Archer
C3: Striker
C4: Araris
C5: Ash

(and yes, I'll say who I'm blocking in the last-minute post lol)

Edit: er... @TJ Shade or @Araris Valerian or someone, mind posting so that I don't have to double-post? I mean, ig that's probably not a formality I really need to observe, but still. 

Edit: Also it's probably too late for this but TJ, Araris, @Condensation@forget me not, and @Flyingbooks (sorry for weird formatting) if it were up to you who to roleblock, who would you pick? 

Edited by Quintessential
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Quintessential

Quintessential

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Oof, guess I may have to double-post after all then.

Current player list:

  1. Connie
  2. Books
  3. Quinn
  4. Araris
  5. Forge
  6. TJ

I'm assuming that two of the five non-me people are elims--we know they didn't start with five because this would be parity if they had, and given that the elims had a vanilla, I highly doubt they started with three. Of course, only one of those two is going to be submitting the kill, so I have a 1/5 chance of hitting the right person (RNG says Books :P). Not great odds, but maybe I can increase them somewhat?

ISO of Ash:

Spoiler
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Need to write an essay today, so I'm going to be gone until that's done most likely. But I have Friday off so I won't be completely useless this cycle.

(Also if I do have spare time that will likely go to the game in C5 instead of D1... sorry :P)

Nothing : P

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... I love trying to catch up on a D1 thread. Water, water, everywhere, and not a drop to drink.

There are vote manip roles besides Dalinar (the Spokesperson). So I'd rather it not be a tie if possible. I don't have infinite time but I'll look at Illwei vs Dannex. One of Striker's posts (I think the one about vote manip? I had to double check because I wasn't sure if there was a vote manip role besides Dalinar... it might have been warning about vote manip) felt off...

Time is a valuable commodity. Sigh.

Mentions a bunch of confirmed villagers. Not very helpful oof

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On 3/26/2021 at 7:21 PM, Quintessential said:

This is the only post of Striker's that mentions vote-manip as far as I could tell (time is a commodity that I happen to have :P)

  On 3/26/2021 at 5:07 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, ties kill someone this game. I think ties are good. If we set up a tie, then if there’s an elim involved the elims have to do something about it, whether that’s through vote manip or just by changing their votes to someone else. Either way, we get information based on what happened after the tie. 

 

I think... yeah, it was that one. But I think I'd just forgotten about Spokespersons so I thought the only D1 vote manip was the Confirmed Village Dalinar :P

Nothing else on Striker, although I'm curious about Archer and Striker immediately thunderdoming about Highprince claiming. Seemed to be a genuine misunderstanding but there were a lot of people (TJ, Whysper, etc) taking sides on that.

Points out that TJ and Whysper both took sides on the Highprince issue. Whysper is distancing... who knows about TJ. 

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On 3/26/2021 at 7:50 PM, Illwei said:

Ash potentially e/e with danex if danex survives this, but only works if danex flips first bc he could also just be an elim trying to stay away from v/v wagons.

Rebuttal: Dannex :P

I don't have the info to make it a tie, but I've got enough to say I don't want a Spokesperson making it a tie for us...

Nothing

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And that vote maniper wasn't Dalinar (unless he can turn votes to no-votes). Which... isn't surprising, but isn't really indicative of anything either. I think that makes me gut-trust Dannex a bit more.

Well... it's marginally better than a Spokesperson tying it. More info that way.

Nothing.

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I don't think Elim!Dannex + Elim!Spokesperson makes too much sense. Dannex wasn't on for the last bit of rollover, so he wasn't on to self-pres. I feel like an Elim that close to death would at least make an effort to be on to self-pres if necessary instead of forcing the Elim vote manip to save him instead. E!Striker would imply E!Dannex more than E!Spokes would in my opinion.

I... lost where I was going with this :P I didn't have much of a read on Dannex besides their relative quietness this game, but I'm not one to talk about that, am I.

Nothing.

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... I forgot to follow the thread.

In class right now but I'll post something in an hour or two.

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Is it 7 (or 6 from Spokes) votes on Dannex, 3 on Whysper? It's hard to follow vote counts when there's a lot of D1 counts...

Since I was asked how I feel about TJ... not much to go off of but that big post feels very TJ-ish. It also feels sort of like Archer... maybe that's just because I'm used to him doing the big posts. So I'll lean Village on him (as much as one can for his post level), because I think I know what TJ feels like and how that was different with Elim!TJ in the Dragons QF.

Reads TJ village.

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I count eight living players viewing the thread, so I feel like there's still some time.

Nothing.

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I'm debating tieing it (or un-tieing it like last time). Let me look at Whysper first.

Edit: Tying? Tieing? Tiing?

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Whysper

I can do more than talk about tying the vote... and something's rubbing me the wrong way.

So a tie it is.

Edit: Nope, me and Mat posted simultaneously. Nevermind.

Nothing.

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On 3/29/2021 at 9:08 PM, Quintessential said:

I have to say, this is in line with MR48 Ash (he was elim then), but it could also be in line with village games that I'm forgetting due to confbias, so eh.

... I was also really busy that game (even before I had to drop out), so I would say that's more likely the similarity. I'm just cursed with busyness when I'm also an Elim... It's also just easier to remember to get on right before/after rollover.

I'll probably be around more once the MR ends... unless I end up running the QF. Then who knows.

Nothing.

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  On 3/29/2021 at 10:59 PM, Gears said:

There is an individual I must thank. You know who you are. I offer you a gleaming smile and a handful of copper pennies.

... you got a PM with Quinn, didn't you.

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Sorry guys, I've just been burned out lately. (Mainly from trying to figure out what was going on in the MR, if that wasn't obvious... but also just in general. IDK.)

  On 3/31/2021 at 1:43 AM, Whysper said:
  On 3/31/2021 at 1:34 AM, Flyingbooks said:

I didn't think that Danex was an elim, so I wanted to place my vote on a person who could be elim who I had a chance of getting people to move onto. This was within the last hour, so I was mostly concerned with shifting the exe from Dannex, who I thought had an extremely low likelihood of being an elim to anybody who I could who I thought has a higher chance of being one. You were simply the only other even slightly person who I could hope to shift the exe to.

Why did you feel so certain that Dannex wasn't Elim? And why was everyone else on his wagon up for grabs as more likely Elim? I mean, you should assume that most of the wagon would be Villagers themselves. Elims aren't going to all pile on him. That's usually how it works. It doesn't seem like you put any thought into who was more likely the Elim on the wagon.

Whysper, where exactly did you get this from Books's post? They don't mention who was voting on Dannex, just you.

Edit: One hour goes by, and then Quinn and I post simultaneously ... okay then ...

Kind-of defends Books... from Whysper : P idk that I can really get anything from that lol.

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I'll vote Books. Their activity is odd this cycle. @Flyingbooks, could you post a read list? Because you seem to be suspicious of only Whysper and Araris, who happen to be 2/3 of the people voting on you. And I'd rather not vote out the relatively active Araris (even if he wants to go talk to Illwei. Sorry :P.)

I felt a little off about Whysper last cycle, but they feel better this cycle (although perhaps just because she's being somewhat active... and using less smiley faces.) I'd be down to turn this into a contribution crusade as well, if only because that would probably help me actually remember to post... 

Hmmmm. Okay this is making me think Books is village tbh. Books definitely didn't not have a lot of votes at the time (two to Araris's four, but one of the ones on Araris was Araris, who could have moved a vote to Books to save himself). Whether Ash was aware of that is the real question lol. Regardless, the other thing that I'm getting from this--or really from the VC at the time, is that TJ is almost certainly village unless Araris is elim. Because Ash voted on Books when Whysper and TJ were already voting them, so if TJ is elim then that's 3/4 of the elim team voting the same person. Which seems... ill-advised xD though then again they did bus that cycle so who knows.

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 On 4/1/2021 at 7:45 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, that is a good point, I guess. @Ashbringer, would you consider voting for Whysper instead of Books? I gave a couple of minor reasons why I think Books is village, at least for now.

Eh... sure. Books Whysper. 

Reaaaaaally don't like that RandBy vote though.

This is kind of what baffles me xD why would e!Ash vote e!Whysper just because Araris asked him to? This is what makes me think the team is Ash/Books/Araris/Whysper at this point. I mean, maybe Ash was just worried that Whysper would get exed with or without him so he might as well bus? But... there were only two votes on her at the time to Books's three and (more importantly) Araris's four. Voting Araris would have solidified Araris's lead over Whysper... hmmm. 

The problem with not being able to post this before the end of the cycle in order to stay one step ahead of the elims is that I don't have anyone to point out where I'm tinfoiling vs. where I might actually be making sense. But... yeah. 

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... I like the title.

Nothing.

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... I forgot to follow the thread. Again. Will be back in the afternoon.

Nothing.

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Grrr. I'm going to be busy tomorrow and was not expecting my test to take up literally until the last 10 minutes. So here I am. 

Let's try this. Can everyone list their top three off-the-top-of-your-head suspicions? That ended up working fairly well in the LG (well, besides being two cycles too late). I personally would say Connie, TJ Shade, Gneorndin/Tani. Connie for the weirdly timed vote - even if it was before the Whysper jump, it seemed weird for RandBy being so inactive. TJ and Gneo more of just gut / not contributing as much. TJ usually jumps in when he can if there's not someone else pushing activity, and Tani feels... not just less active, but more laid back, I guess.

... half of this applies to me as well. I know. And it's irritating me. But all I can really do is take what time I've got.

I think Araris is good, Elandera is good until further notice, Books needs more vote analysis, and FMN seems at least genuine.

Quinn and Striker I can't tell - but I will say that we're finding, again, that not pressuring people to be active leads to them not being active, and that just leads to the active people being the only ones to accuse each other.

So, Gneorndin. I'm not sure which timezone you're in but tomorrow is another day, and I want to hear more from you. And committing to something now will hopefully help me to stay committed.

Ash out.

Listed Connie/TJ/Tani as his three suspicions. Tbh idk whether to think that means that one of Connie/TJ is elim or to think that neither of them are. Village read on Araris, hedging on Books, Forge is "genuine". 

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Anyone have a vote count?

Looking back RandBy's Araris vote was before Araris mentioned switching from Books to Whysper. So that's less condemning that I thought. Still find it a bit weird that that's when RandBy chose to act, but Connie I expect will act differently. I'm looking at TJ/Striker. You too @Gneorndin.

Backs off a bit on Connie/Randby. Now looking at TJ/Striker.

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... I like how "funky formatting" is literally just one extraneous line :P

I feel like Elandera hasn't... done much that's AI? The main thing that comes to mind was her reaction to the Whysper switch, but I feel like watching Araris organize a switch not from him to Books, but to an entirely new player vote wise would be weird enough to look at regardless of the alignments at first. Particularly if she wasn't reading Whysper as Elim. 

... do I have time to go down this rabbit hole. Probably not for long.

It was kinda weird to watch ngl xD but nothing here exactly.

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On 4/4/2021 at 6:48 PM, Quintessential said:

@Ashbringer yeah but all the people who've done AI stuff that leans elim are me, Striker, and Araris basically, and we've gotten into such a tangled mess that unless a bunch of other, non-us people are about to seriously weigh in on that debate, it's just not gonna get us anywhere I don't think. also I don't want to be exed. 

I guess... it seems like you're (royal) exing Elandera because of how her flip would affect other people, not because of what you think she'll flip. Which is why everyone decided to exe STINK in the MR, which ended up not affecting anyone because he wasn't Zane/Gneorndin. That was a very different case than this one, but it still gives me pause.

Better point would be if we're talking about what info we get from an exe we need to talk about what info Village!Elandera gives us as well as just Elim. I like it more than exeing one of our our Triple Threat here, but I'd like to have more info on what that actually tells us and/or why the suspect is actually suspect.

...That goes for TJ too, Araris :P I'll look at the pair of them. What's 30 more minutes of procrastination going to do.

Says he doesn't want to exe one of the Triple Threat... since me and Striker are village, does that suggest that Araris is elim? or is this defending villagers on purpose... But then he's already doing that with Elan... 

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On 4/4/2021 at 7:05 PM, Quintessential said:

@Ashbringer so what do you suggest we do then? If you don't like voting off one of me/Striker/Araris, and you don't like voting off a less active player with the potential to give information on me/Striker/Araris...

I'm reading through Elandera's posts right now, trying to find if something sticks out. Might do the same for TJ, but he's been talked about more in here (and I gut read him worse than Elandera).

I just don't want "info on Quinn/Striker/Araris" to be my main motive on voting out someone not named Quinn/Striker/Araris. Even though I'd rather not vote you three out, if my goal is to be information, that's what I would do because that's what gets that done better. Or I find a new goal.

Also I'm emotionally against taking my vote of Gneorndin/Tani because she still hasn't said anything

Nothing? idk, mentions TJ but... eh.

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Okay, I'll go Elandera. TJ's been much more assertive; Elandera's really only been assertive about players who are now dead (Dannex, Archer, Illwei, notable living player of Tani). Although I find it interesting that Elandera sussed TJ at one point and never followed up on it.

... that and I'm afraid the three of you will rip each other apart if I don't get the exe out of your reach.

Edit: Gneorndin

Goes from bad gut read of TJ to voting Elan... ughhh I can't help seeing connections between Ash and literally everyone else :wacko:

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Not on Araris, no :P

In response to me saying that I wanted to vote Araris and was hoping someone would join me (more or less). So... outright statement of not wanting to vote out Araris. 

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Well that was nerve-wracking.

Nothing.

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On 4/5/2021 at 6:31 AM, Gneorndin said:

3rd edit

@Ashbringer Really? You poke-voted me on Sunday. I don't do SE on Sunday.

My time zone is the same as Quinn's.

Uh... good to know. Any suspicions?

I'm still very wary of exeing Quinn/Striker/Araris. Less so of Striker, I guess. A bit suspicious of TJ and Gneorndin, and to a lesser extent Connie, but more for lack of contribution than anything major. More trusting of Quinn and Araris, somewhat trusting of Books and FMN.

Okay, so basically, Ash doesn't want to exe Araris/Books/Forge, would be okay with exeing TJ/maybe-Connie. 

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I don't know why I'm still alive. But there's a lot of potential for protection in this game, so maybe the Elims just wanted to get a kill for certain. I have a few... other ideas, but I'd rather keep those to myself for now. (That and I have a... very weird track record when it comes to figuring out why Elims do things.)

This is what we had last cycle from the three-suspects thing - I'll include Elandera, I guess.

  • Striker - Elandera, Quinn, Araris
  • Quinn - Elandera*, Striker, Araris
  • TJ Shade - Ash, 1/2 Striker, 1/2 Araris
  • Connie - Ash, 1/2 Striker, 1/2 Araris
  • Elandera - Striker, Quinn
  • Forge - Elandera
  • Araris - Quinn
  • Gneornin - Ash

Connie, Gneorndin, and TJ didn't respond that I can see.

... speaking of which. Can anyone with more time than me find anything that separates TJ and Connie? I swear every time they've been brought up the past two cycles it's been together, and the main differential that I thought I found was just wrong.

Well the only non-confirmed person who responded to Ash's survey was Araris, unfortunately : P 

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  On 4/6/2021 at 9:29 PM, Quintessential said:

Hey how come Araris only gave me as an answer? >> 

Striker and I agreed except for each other... both Araris and Striker have argued for TJ's death at one point or another, could be distancing or not, who knows... TJ is sus of both of them, according to this. TJ and Connie have the exact same reads... Elan had said she was sus of me and Striker (great : P), and Tani's only suspicion was Ash... who also appeared as a suspicion for TJ and Connie. Forge listed Elan as her only suspicion even though she was voting Araris for most of the cycle. 

K so I was hoping I'd think of something substantive to add to this but I didn't. : P

Uh... you're reading it backwards. Bold is who got 'voted' on, list is who voted for them.

(Also Araris and Striker listed four which is why they got split in half because otherwise it breaks things.)

Nothing.

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It could work. Depends on one thing though: @Matrim's Dice, how do the Slips interact with Dalinar's ability to move a vote?

I feel like I'd rather depend on Dalinar being able to move a vote than on everyone buying Slips (Slipped Notes? Why is my brain calling them that?)

Sidesteps my brilliant genius plan with "Dalinar" :P

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  • [A] Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
  • (B) Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
  • [C] One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
  • [D] 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

I would say I think C is most likely, then D, then A, then B. But I feel like the real team is something different... 

I don't think Forge is an Elim, though... she doesn't have ties to much. I'd be hesitant exe TJ or Connie here, because they seem to be the "wild cards" where either or both could be Elims and they're just too untied to tell without more info. That and besides TJ's spurt in activity I still haven't seen anything to tell the two apart. And I don't think Araris is Elim based on that D3 organization, unless Books is as well, so no real sense in voting out Araris now... That leaves Striker, Quinn, and Books. 

And blast it I don't have time. I don't want to vote out Quinn, not with them outing themselves as a Roleblocker (especially as a Roleblocker). So I'm good with these two... just... which one is it.

E!Books implies E!Araris. E!Striker implies V!Quinn to me, but I'd have to look more carefully (inverse applies to V!Striker and E!Quinn). And I think E!Striker could imply E!TJ as well - the early vote from Striker on TJ is ringing alarm bells for me. The thing is, I don't think E!Books can tell us much more.

So... Striker. 

On the Elandera exe... I'm intrigued by the fact Elandera moved her vote to TJ only for then a push on Striker to generate, which Elandera said she may join but never did. I don't know what that means, though, because it didn't involve any input from either of those two (aside from their early votes on Elandera) and there was no third vote for Elandera to tie it.

  Hide contents

  • E!Striker <-> E!TJ, V!Quinn
  • E!Quinn <-> V!Striker
  • E!Books <-> E!Araris
  • Might fill this up more later

This post is actually what prompted me to do this ISO in the first place lol. Ash's teams in order of likelihood:

  • One of Striker/Quinn, TJ, Connie
  • Two of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, one of Ash/Forge
  • Araris, Books, one of TJ/Connie
  • Quinn, Striker, one of TJ/Connie

Only one includes Araris, though that's because Araris only included one with him in it in the first place. Ash, unlike me, did not add his own additional team guesses lol. Anyway, his "most likely" team guess includes TJ and Connie as two of the three members, which makes me think it's... unlikely? that they're both elim. There are other reasons for that too (TJ tried to get a train started on Connie at one point, and truthfully stated that he was leaving and wouldn't be back on to see it to completion--aka, to do damage control). I'm fairly comfortable saying TJ and Connie are not e/e. 

In this post, Ash ties TJ and Connie together as "one or both or neither could be elims" basically. Again, I doubt both of them are, but I could easily see it being one of them? idk. Then he narrows it down further, dismissing Araris by pointing out that D3 doesn't make sense with e!Araris unless Books is also elim, and me because of the RBer claim. That leaves him with Striker and Books, and he votes Striker. Which makes me worry about Books : P

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On 4/7/2021 at 4:03 PM, Quintessential said:

@Ashbringer what's making you conclude that Striker and I aren't e/e? That's the wrong phrasing of that question but I couldn't think of a better way to put it. What I mean is, Araris seems to think that Striker and I are e/e, so what are you seeing that he's not, or how are you interpreting things differently?

I feel like it's just a gut feeling... you and Striker (and Araris, for that matter) have been having a bit of a wallpost battle to put it mildly, and I just... don't think that's something that you would fabricate. Not to this level.

That and it would have taken one more turnover vote for the exe on Elandera to flip over to tie with Striker (assuming Elandera would have self-presed if another person voted). Which if there's only one Elim not named Quinn or Striker, seems like quite a gambit.

I could be convinced to move to TJ if someone can differentiate TJ from voting Connie.

Mmm okay maybe not. Idk how much of a risktaker e!Ash is, is the problem xD would he vote on e!TJ and figure that a train probably wouldn't build up last-minute? I don't know.

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What just... nevermind. 

I still feel like Striker's the right call for now. But if TJ's gone that puts us in more of a tight spot...

Nothing.

There are a couple of posts from last Day but they also have basically nothing in them.

So, in summary, Ash's interactions with each other currently living non-me person:

Araris: voted Whysper at Araris's request in C3, when he could have voted Araris instead and saved Whysper. Read Araris village in C4, said that he didn't want to exe any of me/Striker/Araris (and Araris is the only one not confirmed village in there), and says he definitely won't vote on Araris multiple times in both C4 and C5.

TJ: Points out that TJ and Whysper were awfully quick to take sides in the C1 Highprince debate, village-read on TJ C2, votes with Whysper and TJ on Books for a while C3 (would be kinda weird for 3/4 of the team to be the only people voting on someone? idk), more serious "suspicion" of TJ in C4 (listing him in his top 3 suspicions and stuff like that) but doesn't vote TJ in spite of that, says that he'd be okay with exeing TJ, ties TJ and Connie together repeatedly as a kind of... excuse to exe neither of them?, later says he would vote TJ if someone could distinguish him from Connie somehow (I promptly gave a couple of rather large differences, which... he didn't respond to).

Connie: listed Connie in top 3 suspicions C4, then backed off a bit and focused more on Striker and TJ, continues to focus more on TJ than Connie... yeah that's basically it.

Books: Kind-of defends Books from Whysper in C2 or C3 (I don't remember which : P), votes Books at a time when it gives Araris the opportunity to save himself by voting Books, hedged on a Books read by saying he wanted to do more analysis on them, later said he doesn't want to exe Books (or Araris, or Forge, coincidentally(?) the same three people who voted with Ash on both Whysper and Striker), uses a kind of process of elimination to narrow down the people he would vote on to Striker and Books (who happened to be the two with the most votes at the time) and then votes Striker, which broke a tie betwen Striker and Books.

Forge: calls her genuine, doesn't want to vote her, doesn't think she's elim because she doesn't have ties to much (though of course she doesn't because she doesn't talk much >>)

Based on that, the teams I could see are:

Whysper/Ash/Araris/Books

  • Problems: Well, actually, tbh I can't think of any serious problems with this team as an option. It would explain why none of the Whysper voters have been NK'd yet--because the only villager voting her is the newbie--and it would explain why Ash bussed Whysper instead of voting Araris and saving Whysper, and it would explain why Araris shifted the vote to Whysper instead of voting off Books, and so on. The one thing, I guess, is why did Ash, Whysper, and Araris all vote Books at various points in time, but since their only reason for doing so, really, was "inactivity", they might have seen it as an easy distancing vote ig.

Whysper/Ash/Books/Connie

  • Problems: Why didn't Ash vote Araris instead of Whysper in C3? Why did he steer the conversation away from the Triple Threat if all of us were village?

Whysper/Ash/Books/Forge

  • Problems: Again, why didn't Ash (and Forge) vote Araris instead of Whysper in C3? Why did he steer the conversation away from the Triple Threat if all of us were village? Why was he so non-committal about TJ and Connie when both were village? 

Whysper/Ash/Araris/TJ

  • Problems: Why did Araris shift the vote onto Whysper C3 instead of voting Books? Why hasn't Books been NKd yet? Why did Ash sus TJ more than Connie?

And of course, this leaves me wanting to block one of [Araris, Books, Connie, Forge, TJ], which is exactly where I was before : P the only thing I can really say is that Connie, TJ, and Forge all seem like less likely candidates to me, and that Connie and TJ don't seem like they're elims together. 

Yeah I just don't know... there's more analysis that I could do, but it feels like no matter what I keep coming back to Araris/Books. Only now I'm confused because Araris keeps hinting that he's Dalinar, and Books doesn't necessarily make sense with Ash and Whysper. But all the other teams just don't fit right with the votes from C3.

But on the other hand, Araris has been off all game--things like assuming the alignments of people we have no reason to assume about, saying he's glad he voted a confirmed villager instead of someone who hadn't flipped yet and who (from a village POV) could have been elim, voting active players C1, and so on. Hence my bad gut read of him. And Araris makes most sense with Books, whom he and Ash have both conveniently been defending and who for some reason wasn't NKd after getting Whysper voted off >>. This is probably some amount of conf-bias talking, but at the same time, how many coincidences have to line up before I'm justified in paying attention to them?

*rubs eyes* anyway I'm tired and don't really want to keep thinking about this anymore, so I'm blocking Books. Because A. they're in more of my teams-most-likely than Araris and make sense as elim even if Araris isn't one, B. I've expressed more suspicion of Araris than of Books so IKYK amirite? and C. RNGesus decreed it :P 

A note from me of several hours later (I wrote this this morning): I'm less certain about my decision now, but I'm sticking with it. If I'm wrong, we still have a chance... maybe... yeah idk. If Araris is actually village we might, or if everyone else suddenly decides to be active? Anyway, this is the best I could do on my own. Hopefully it was enough.

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Mat

Mat

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Day Seven: Get Door'd

Two in a row. You Highprinces sure hate being told what not to do.

-The Wise Words of Philico, 1173.7.5.7

Lady Lumi Tominel was on a roll. She had caught Faleast’s attack on the back end of her door the night before, and walked more confidently than ever. She flaunted her badge as enforcer and protector of political meetings openly now, knowing it would make all of Sadeas’ followers think once, twice, and then a third time about attacking her.

A short fellow, one she didn’t recognize, walked up to her. “Lumi!” he said, gesturing to the door. “Quite impressive!”

She drew herself up to her full height. “Indeed, good sir. You have good taste in doors.”

The man chuckled. “As long as I don’t have to take a closer look at it, I’ll be fine.”

Lumi smiled, and they stood in silence for some time. The Night was getting boring; nothing was happening. She began to nod off, then jerk back up fully alert. She couldn’t fall asleep, Alethkar was counting on her, especially tonight!

She kept telling herself this, to no avail. Her head drooped further every time. The man next to her made no comment of this, almost like he was…

Waiting for something.

This thought came to Lumi a second too late into her most recent drowsy slip. The next thing she knew she was on the ground, head pounding. Something hard had rammed it, hard and flat.

Her door clattered to the ground next to her.

The man chuckled above her. “Get Door’d, Lumi. See you on the other side.”

All went dark.

Quintessential was smacked by her own door! She was a Doorman!

An Anarchy Event has been triggered! Today's execution must have at least 50% of the votes to succeed- with 5 players, the vote minimum is 3.

The Political Vengeance Event is still in effect! Never mind the fact that it's technically impossible to tie/kill two players today anyway!

  • There will be a majority execution today, with a vote minimum of 3 votes. Tied votes will kill both parties involved.
  • PMs are, as always, closed unless through actions.
  • The marketplace is closed.
  • @Flyingbooks was absent during the Night turn, this is your official activity warning (TM)

The Day has begun, and will end in ~48 hours on Tuesday, April 13th at 5pm PST.

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. Gears - Roko the Basilisk - Dalinar's Coalition
  2. Random Bystander/@Condensation
  3. Ashbringer - Faleast - Doorman
  4. @Flyingbooks
  5. Dannex - Spokesperson
  6. Quintessential - Lady Lumi Tominel - Doorman
  7. The Unknown Order - Obliteration - Highprince Vamah
  8. @Araris Valerian - Ruthar
  9. @forget me not - Cara
  10. Gneorndin/Tani - Reva - Spanreed Operator
  11. Archer - Filico - Highprince Thanadal
  12. StrikerEZ - King Elhokar
  13. Elandera - Highprince Bethab
  14. Illwei - Highprince Aladar
  15. Whysper - Sadeas' Influenced
  16. @TJ Shade

 

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Araris Valerian

Araris Valerian

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Okay, so other than myself, we have Forge, Connie, Books, and TJ. I'm pretty sure Forge is Dalinar (must be myself, Books, or Forge, isn't me, and Books didn't claim to survive), and since it is (again) GryLo, I figure there isn't much harm in putting that out there. So I need to judge the 3 possible remaining teams:

1. Connie/TJ
2. Connie/Books
3. Books/TJ

I've argued quite ferociously that Books is village this game, but I'm way less sure now. The main things I can think about TJ are that he didn't want to grinch Books or Striker last cycle, and he thought that Ash would be the most likely to be elim on the C3 Whysper vote. But The votes on Elandera during C4 were TJ, Ash, Striker, and Books. I sort of doubt that 3 elims would vote together like that, which makes me not like team option 3. I know I've gotten myself into trouble by assuming things about where elims will and won't vote this game, but I'm at least pushed in that direction. If Books/TJ are not e/e, then Connie must be elim. And I'd probably lean towards Connie/Books over Connie/TJ at this point. In part because of basically everything Striker and Whysper brought up in favor of killing Books (although I need to see if the flip on Ash changes any of that), and in part because of TJ's comment I mentioned above.

I'll have to see if I have the energy to actually go back and do rereads of things sometime tomorrow or Tuesday.

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|TJ|

|TJ|

Posted
Posted

Huh, I actually thought Araris was Dalinar - and was suspecting FMN/Connie team. The main point for Books if the Whysper pushed on them quite a bit early in D2, and for this, knowing Whysper's elim meta is important. Point against Connie is why would she vote Araris if Ash/ their team had already decided to bus Whysper? Counter point to that is Ash is was forced by the previous cycle's illegal vote and push by Araris. Also, RandBy voted on Araris before Araris @'ed people asking them to shift so Connie is the best option here. Just realised if the 2 elims refrain from voting and the 3rd villager is inactive, we don't have an elimination this cycle, so third villager should be voting to prevent that.

Another way to find then would be the doc. Only 3 HPs have died, meaning all of us remaining have to be Highprinces. If we all reveal the number/color we are, that may lead somewhere. I'm yellow, H9, also playing as Sebarial :P. Working out the time of death and disappearances of the colors from the doc, I've got this. Doubt anything will come of it, but I'm very eager to know who the inactive HP6 is.

H1 - Living Active
H2 - Living Active
H3 - The Unknown Order
H4 - Illwei
H5 - Archer
H6 - Living Inactive
H7 - Elandera
H8 - Living Active
H9 - TJ

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Condensation

Condensation

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20 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, so other than myself, we have Forge, Connie, Books, and TJ. I'm pretty sure Forge is Dalinar (must be myself, Books, or Forge, isn't me, and Books didn't claim to survive), and since it is (again) GryLo, I figure there isn't much harm in putting that out there. So I need to judge the 3 possible remaining teams:

1. Connie/TJ
2. Connie/Books
3. Books/TJ

I've argued quite ferociously that Books is village this game, but I'm way less sure now. The main things I can think about TJ are that he didn't want to grinch Books or Striker last cycle, and he thought that Ash would be the most likely to be elim on the C3 Whysper vote. But The votes on Elandera during C4 were TJ, Ash, Striker, and Books. I sort of doubt that 3 elims would vote together like that, which makes me not like team option 3. I know I've gotten myself into trouble by assuming things about where elims will and won't vote this game, but I'm at least pushed in that direction. If Books/TJ are not e/e, then Connie must be elim. And I'd probably lean towards Connie/Books over Connie/TJ at this point. In part because of basically everything Striker and Whysper brought up in favor of killing Books (although I need to see if the flip on Ash changes any of that), and in part because of TJ's comment I mentioned above.

I'll have to see if I have the energy to actually go back and do rereads of things sometime tomorrow or Tuesday.

Well, I have to consider the other possibilities.

  1. Connie/TJ (I don't think so. It's me, after all.)
  2. Connie/Books (I mean... same as above. I know my own role, after all.)
  3. Books/TJ (Not sure right now.)
  4. Books/Araris (This... is actually looking kind of likely. There was vote manip from Araris to Whysper, which seems really confusing to me, at least at first.)
  5. TJ/Araris (This one seems less likely than the one above. Otherwise, why wouldn't the vote manip be toward Books? But this is all rather confusing to me.)
  6. Araris/Connie (Implausible, like I said earlier.)

And I don't think Forge is an elim.

So right now, I think Araris is the most likely. I'm going to look through the past and see if I can see anything else or something going in a different direction

Also, what even happened on D2?

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Huh, I actually thought Araris was Dalinar - and was suspecting FMN/Connie team. The main point for Books if the Whysper pushed on them quite a bit early in D2, and for this, knowing Whysper's elim meta is important. Point against Connie is why would she vote Araris if Ash/ their team had already decided to bus Whysper? Counter point to that is Ash is was forced by the previous cycle's illegal vote and push by Araris. Also, RandBy voted on Araris before Araris @'ed people asking them to shift so Connie is the best option here. Just realised if the 2 elims refrain from voting and the 3rd villager is inactive, we don't have an elimination this cycle, so third villager should be voting to prevent that.

Another way to find then would be the doc. Only 3 HPs have died, meaning all of us remaining have to be Highprinces. If we all reveal the number/color we are, that may lead somewhere. I'm yellow, H9, also playing as Sebarial :P. Working out the time of death and disappearances of the colors from the doc, I've got this. Doubt anything will come of it, but I'm very eager to know who the inactive HP6 is.

H1 - Living Active
H2 - Living Active
H3 - The Unknown Order
H4 - Illwei
H5 - Archer
H6 - Living Inactive
H7 - Elandera
H8 - Living Active
H9 - TJ

Yeah, sorry. I've been inactive 'cause I had a hard time figuring it out - although I could have asked Mat. I was just busy.

Okay. I don't know Random's thinking, but I think we're pretty similar? So at that point, I wouldn't have voted. But... okay. So. I looked through the day you're talking about, and... wow. No, I don't think I would have made that vote. But sometimes when you're rushed and busy, you just choose the train that makes the most sense to you. I know I've done that.

5 hours ago, forget me not said:

Cara took a deep breath. This wasn't over yet. They still had a chance. Dalinar still trusted her to find out who the remaining traitors were. And Cara planned to do so.

I am Hp 2, the pink one. 

I also think that the elim team might be Connie/Books.

Is there... reasoning? What convinced you?

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Flyingbooks

Flyingbooks

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Posted

I'm highprince 8.

Before this cycle, I was pretty strongly leaning towards a TJ/Connie team, but what Araris has said feels a little off to me this cycle. I guess maybe it's that he's confidently excluding exactly 1 other person from his exe pool and so it feels a bit like he's trying to control the exe and protect his teammate? Now I need to decide whether he's still trustworthy enough or not.

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|TJ|

|TJ|

Posted
Posted

How would me-Connie team make sense? I've been pushing to kill them from a while? When asked for an alternative between Striker and you, I went for Connie. Striker was village, and if you are village (and you would assume so), why would I not vote on one on of you and on a supposed teammate Connie, especially knowing Striker and Quinn might shift to them? This only makes me more suspicious of you. 

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forget me not

forget me not

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Condensation said:

Is there... reasoning? What convinced you?

These are some of the points that I agree with:

On 4/11/2021 at 7:28 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, so other than myself, we have Forge, Connie, Books, and TJ. I'm pretty sure Forge is Dalinar (must be myself, Books, or Forge, isn't me, and Books didn't claim to survive), and since it is (again) GryLo, I figure there isn't much harm in putting that out there. So I need to judge the 3 possible remaining teams:

1. Connie/TJ
2. Connie/Books
3. Books/TJ

I've argued quite ferociously that Books is village this game, but I'm way less sure now. The main things I can think about TJ are that he didn't want to grinch Books or Striker last cycle, and he thought that Ash would be the most likely to be elim on the C3 Whysper vote. But The votes on Elandera during C4 were TJ, Ash, Striker, and Books. I sort of doubt that 3 elims would vote together like that, which makes me not like team option 3. I know I've gotten myself into trouble by assuming things about where elims will and won't vote this game, but I'm at least pushed in that direction. If Books/TJ are not e/e, then Connie must be elim. And I'd probably lean towards Connie/Books over Connie/TJ at this point. In part because of basically everything Striker and Whysper brought up in favor of killing Books (although I need to see if the flip on Ash changes any of that), and in part because of TJ's comment I mentioned above..

 

On 4/12/2021 at 9:33 AM, TJ Shade said:

 Also, RandBy voted on Araris before Araris @'ed people asking them to shift so Connie is the best option here. Just realised if the 2 elims refrain from voting and the 3rd villager is inactive, we don't have an elimination this cycle, so third villager should be voting to prevent that.

 

So this:

14 hours ago, Condensation said:

There was vote manip from Araris to Whysper, which seems really confusing to me, at least at first

I (Dalinar) did that to get out Whysper who was an elim.

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Mat

Mat

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Night Seven: Betrayed

Writeup to come (probably), busy again, sorry again :P 

Condensation was killed! She was Highprince Sebarial!

Vote Count:

  • Condensation (3): Araris Valerian, TJ Shade, forget me not

The Night has begun and will end in 24ish hours on Wednesday, April 14th at 5pm PST. I will not be online then, I have a track meet, but after 5 I won't accept any actions and the thread will be closed even if I'm not there to do it. I'll get the next thread up as soon as I can but don't expect a fast rollover. Probably a couple of hours :P.

  • Get your actions in!
  • PMs are still closed unless through actions.
  • The marketplace is open!

Marketplace:

Spoiler
  • Knife - 12 spheres
  • Contract of Peace - 5 spheres
  • Legal Document - 6 spheres
  • Slipped Note - 3 spheres
  • Armor - 7 spheres
  • Spy - 6 spheres

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. Gears - Roko the Basilisk - Dalinar's Coalition
  2. Random Bystander/Condensation - Highprince Sebarial
  3. Ashbringer - Faleast - Doorman
  4. @Flyingbooks
  5. Dannex - Spokesperson
  6. Quintessential - Lady Lumi Tominel - Doorman
  7. The Unknown Order - Obliteration - Highprince Vamah
  8. @Araris Valerian - Ruthar
  9. @forget me not - Cara
  10. Gneorndin/Tani - Reva - Spanreed Operator
  11. Archer - Filico - Highprince Thanadal
  12. StrikerEZ - King Elhokar
  13. Elandera - Highprince Bethab
  14. Illwei - Highprince Aladar
  15. Whysper - Sadeas' Influenced
  16. @TJ Shade

 

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|TJ|

|TJ|

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Nooooooo, I'm supposed to be Sebarial! :P.

Anyway, I've argued why a Connie/me team makes no sense in the last cycle. Also note that Books did not vote on Connie probably in the hopes on someone switching in the end and also so as to not village clear anyone because anyone Connie/Books would be voting for would be perceived as village after Connie flipped evil.

And yeah, to make it clear for the other two villagers, it's good that I die in this cycle. And I'm pretty sure Araris bought an Armor last night as well, and Forge already claimed to have bought an Armor so it's good that I'll be the choice by default. To make it even more certain, I recruited the Spy last night so I'll be using it to target Books. I ask the other two villagers to either target me with a Spy or target Books and I'm sure at least one of you would have bought one in earlier cycles so we don't have any confusions if Books decides to false-scan frame me in case I'm not killed or someone else if I am.

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