Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, I have finally finished going through the thread. I didn't have a whole lot of new thoughts on D3/N3 stuff. It's all in the spoiler box below:

Spoiler

Books’ talk about Anarchy feels a bit odd, but they did end up voting out Whysper, so I’ll give it a pass for now

Tani sure wanted to emphasize how Good™ she was at the start of the game...not sure what to think of it.

e!TJ possibly trying to get villagers to avoid getting contracts so the elims can feel free to kill whoever they want?

Thanks Quinn for reminding me that contracts don’t prevent elim kills; doesn’t mean that I trust you.

I completely forgot that Araris claimed Ruthar super early…@Araris Valerian you still standing by that claim? If so, wanna tell the other highprinces to vote for Democracy? We could really use some more items in our hands.

Whysper said elims would probably just go along with whatever’s happening in the highprince doc...I will assume that they’re actually not doing that.

Randby (now Connie) talking about how the vote manip seems useless unless you’re on the elim team...a bit signal-y? Like...being like “hey, this is a bad thing for the village and elims only want it” to try and get more of the vote manip items in the hands of the elims than in the hands of the village if the villagers aren’t going for it. If this is the case, would make me wonder why we didn’t see any vote manip to try and save Whysper. Perhaps the elim(s) with the items just weren’t online.

Books trying to call out Araris for the Highprince thing with Ruthar just feels...odd...but Books voted for Whysper in that last minute push on her. So idk

e!Quinn wanting to know if Elhokar was in the highprince doc would certainly be something she’d want to know. Don’t know why she wouldn’t just ask this in the doc in this case, but maybe no one else was around at the time? Maybe she felt like asking it in the thread for village points. Elims are less likely to ask questions in thread because they have the doc.

And so begins Quinn’s comments about people not being too sus of me to start things off. Perhaps an attempt to get people to be sus of me like normal?

Quinn talked about people needing to vote since it was halfway through, yet didn’t vote because she didn’t know who to vote for. I think it’s harder for elims to decide who to vote for, especially on D1, because they already know everything and have to figure out what can be seen as suspicious from someone they know is village. Just another little odd thing to keep in mind about Quinn.

Ah, she voted on Archer after I said that voting is always a good thing. Probably felt like she needed to vote with me calling her out on that. Interesting she followed my vote….

When Illwei voted on Whysper D1, Quinn pretty quickly asked for the reasoning…

Elandera’s first vote wasn’t on Archer (probably didn’t want to join a train that already had 3 votes while four players each had 1 vote), and of the 4 players, 1 was an elim, 1 was a villager, and she voted on one of the two we don’t know the alignment of. Not sure what to make of it.

Quinn going sus on Illwei for the “look at me I’m so town” does feel a bit odd in hindsight.

Tani voting Dannex despite not having a whole lot of suspicions on him does feel odd, Dannex…

Quinn assuming my read on Books because we were agreeing about a bunch of other stuff feels like putting reads in my mouth…

Sounds like Whysper might’ve been outvoted by her team in terms of what kind of players they’re going to kill. Either that or they were just trying to distance from the kill

Hmm...Quinn was interested in what Archer thinks of Randby...I’ll keep that in mind when we get one of their flips. Though, to be fair, it was because Archer had done that thing where he was asking everyone questions.

Whysper went really really hard on me being an elim D2 because of my (pretty soft) elim read of her at one point. I’m biased here, obviously, but I feel like there’s gotta be a pretty good explanation for why Whysper would go so hard on me if I were her teammate. 

The amount of times Whysper was concerned about me connecting Araris and Dannex does seem a bit odd...but I think Araris’s recent push for her death and the campaigning for votes on her in thread makes me think Araris isn’t on her team. 

Quinn started defending Whysper when she got two votes. Using the vote analysis stuff again to show that Whysper couldn’t have been defending anyone when she voted on Dannex (Archer was in the lead D1 when Whysper voted on Dannex). And also just Quinn was generally defending Whysper for a bit, right after Whysper first gained a couple votes on D2. 

Hmm Tani voted on Whysper, making her one vote behind Archer...maybe Tani isn’t an elim like I’ve been starting to suspect? They did seem to walk back how certain they were of the vote when asked about it, but didn’t move it for a bit.

Of course as soon as I said that, I scrolled down a little bit and saw that she moved her vote to Dannex…

Still not sure what to make of TJ’s post where he votes on Elandera. I’m suspicious of her, but also TJ voting on neither of the primary exe candidates at the time is a bit odd.

Hmm, TJ said they would rather kill Dannex than Whysper...I’ll keep that in mind if Quinn, Tani, and Elandera don’t pan out for us...though I really hope at least one of them does.

TJ votes Dannex instead of Whysper...not sure what to think of that.

Books votes on Whysper after the Dannex spokesperson claim. Was a relatively safe vote at the time, but I’m still gonna give them village cred for it. 

Araris didn’t want to change to Whysper to avoid a Dannex exe. Still leaning village on him, but...if Quinn flips village despite all this, I’m going to scream look back at Araris again because of this.

Okay, Gonna go ahead and give Tani and Books village points for voting on Whysper when they did in D2. Their votes could’ve swung the vote all the way to a death for Whysper. Plus Whysper was trying to shade the people voting on them as if it was an elim team coming on to save their teammate.

And I’ve officially hit Ash’s attempt at voting for Whysper. Still think this was just a poorly timed attempt at a list minute vote for Whysper, and not some big mastermind move to gain village cred while not actually voting for a teammate.

Tani advocating for killing Whysper at the start of N2...either Tani is just going full chaos demon or she’s actually village. 

Quinn village reading TJ even though he hadn’t really done much by then. Also saying she didn’t think Whysper was super elimmy in this same post.

Whysper’s two top elim reads were Tani and Books at one point. Either that was some serious distancing, or they’re probably village

Crackpot theory: Elandera’s joke about thinking she’s an elim at this point wasn’t just a joke.

Anyway, preliminary thoughts after having done all that: village reads on Tani, Books, Araris, and Ash. Elim reads on Quinn and Elandera. Big ? reads on everyone else. 

44 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

 (Striker) Quinn

I'm not coming back to remove that. I'm tired of arguing with the people I suspect over whether I should suspect them or not, and I'm tired of putting tons of effort into these kinds of analyses and being misexed for them, and I'm tired of this thread being just me and Striker and Araris, and I'm done with this.

And while we're at it, I'm the village roleblocker. I blocked Araris N1 and Striker N3, so if either of you submitted actions those turns, and by some miracle are actually village, then there's your proof of my role at least. N2 I blocked Archer.  

I didn't do anything N3. 

And I'm sorry if you felt like I'm attacking you or something. For what it's worth, I've got a lot of comments on why I think you're an elim in that spoiler box, if you want to look at them. My suspicion of you isn't so much for the Araris thing, more for what I was seeing as I was reading through the thread. Though the recent Araris stuff is like...the cherry on top of the cake. Though the cake could be a lie, if my analysis is off, and in that case I'm sorry.

Anyway, I've spent...way too many hours on this and my brain hurts. I'm going to vibe for the rest of the night. Here's a VC:

Elandera (1): TJ
Striker (1): Elandera
Araris (1): Forge
Quinn (3): Araris, Striker, Quinn

Again, I'd request that everyone vote on who they think is suspicious and get their thoughts in the thread. It can't just be two or three players battling it out in the thread. That doesn't get us anywhere.

[Condensation]

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'm working on going through the thread and making comments as I read, but it's slow going, so I figured I may as well post this before the shard eats it.  In the meantime: @Ashbringer @Condensation @Gneorndin @Flyingbooks you guys have any thoughts on who to kill? We have about half of the cycle left, but it never hurts to get your thoughts and votes out early. 

I'm not entirely sure. I haven't really seen anything - I'm bad at huge walls of text  - but I'm always willing to listen to people making their cases against others.

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I completely forgot that Araris claimed Ruthar super early…@Araris Valerian you still standing by that claim? If so, wanna tell the other highprinces to vote for Democracy? We could really use some more items in our hands.

I did claim rather early. Before the game started, in fact .

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

I did claim rather early. Before the game started, in fact .

I noticed you reminded us of that but forgot to go take that point out of my notes. You wanna confirm if you're actually a highprince or not now?

Please don't actually we don't need the elims narrowing down who Elhokar might be, especially this close to ExLo (which is D6 if we don't hit any elims, and that's if the elims don't win at parity).

@Condensation (can't quote you for some reason). You could look at the spoiler box in my last post for my reasoning behind voting Quinn.

[Condensation]

Wow. That was interesting to read, to say the least. @Quintessential, do you have a rebuttal to any of those points-which-weren't-really-points?

Striker, it would help if you could organize your thoughts. We've got that now, so I know where it all came from, but you could organise it in a bulleted list of sorts? "I'm suspicious of Quinn because A, B, and C."

[Quintessential]

10 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Wow. That was interesting to read, to say the least. @Quintessential, do you have a rebuttal to any of those points-which-weren't-really-points?

Tried to, couldn't. Apparently I have managed, just by doing what felt right in the moment, to screw up in every possible way and get caught in a trap I accidentally laid for myself. You might as well just vote me off at this point. I know I would, looking at what Striker's pointed out.

[Araris Valerian]

@Quintessential, I would like to say that regardless of your alignment, I do appreciate the effort you have put into this game, and can say at least for myself that the game is more fun (albeit a bit tense last cycle ) with your contributions. 

[Ashbringer]

Grrr. I'm going to be busy tomorrow and was not expecting my test to take up literally until the last 10 minutes. So here I am. 

Let's try this. Can everyone list their top three off-the-top-of-your-head suspicions? That ended up working fairly well in the LG (well, besides being two cycles too late). I personally would say Connie, TJ Shade, Gneorndin/Tani. Connie for the weirdly timed vote - even if it was before the Whysper jump, it seemed weird for RandBy being so inactive. TJ and Gneo more of just gut / not contributing as much. TJ usually jumps in when he can if there's not someone else pushing activity, and Tani feels... not just less active, but more laid back, I guess.

... half of this applies to me as well. I know. And it's irritating me. But all I can really do is take what time I've got.

I think Araris is good, Elandera is good until further notice, Books needs more vote analysis, and FMN seems at least genuine.

Quinn and Striker I can't tell - but I will say that we're finding, again, that not pressuring people to be active leads to them not being active, and that just leads to the active people being the only ones to accuse each other.

So, Gneorndin. I'm not sure which timezone you're in but tomorrow is another day, and I want to hear more from you. And committing to something now will hopefully help me to stay committed.

Ash out.

[Elandera]

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Can everyone list their top three off-the-top-of-your-head suspicions?

Striker, maybe Quinn (only if Striker isn't), Forge

[StrikerEZ]

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Can everyone list their top three off-the-top-of-your-head suspicions?

I’d say Quinn, Elandera, and maybe TJ Shade/Connie.

[Quintessential]

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

And I'm sorry if you felt like I'm attacking you or something.

I mean. That is what you're doing. But that's kinda the point of the game. So... it's fine? Or that part of it is fine, anyway. I wasn't frustrated that I was being attacked, so much as that the only people posting were the ones attacking me, so the game had gone from being a thread of 10 players trying to find elims to being me vs. two people who want me dead. Which isn't very fun, for reasons that are probably self-evident.

So, kind of what Ash said about inactivity ig. 

As for what you said in the spoiler box, now that I've actually read it carefully, I have some issues with it--namely, that it's confbias-y. It seems like you started off with the assumption that I was elim and then looked for things to prove it, rather than looking at my posts and using them to decide whether I was elim or not. So... my thoughts below.

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

e!Quinn wanting to know if Elhokar was in the highprince doc would certainly be something she’d want to know. Don’t know why she wouldn’t just ask this in the doc in this case, but maybe no one else was around at the time? Maybe she felt like asking it in the thread for village points. Elims are less likely to ask questions in thread because they have the doc.

Being a village roleblocker, I don't have a doc to ask in. Also, you literally say in here that elims are less likely to ask questions in the thread, and then conclude that I'm elimmy because I asked a question in the thread. How does that make sense?

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

And so begins Quinn’s comments about people not being too sus of me to start things off. Perhaps an attempt to get people to be sus of me like normal?

Or perhaps, v!me, having recently played LG74 (where your track-record of being seen as suspicious was heavily emphasized), noticed that this time, nobody was sus of you, and decided to point it out. 

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn talked about people needing to vote since it was halfway through, yet didn’t vote because she didn’t know who to vote for. I think it’s harder for elims to decide who to vote for, especially on D1, because they already know everything and have to figure out what can be seen as suspicious from someone they know is village. Just another little odd thing to keep in mind about Quinn.

Yeah that was hypocritical of me, but the reason behind it (which I believe I said then?) was that I knew who I wanted to vote but felt bad voting him because he'd been misexed early in the other game.

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Ah, she voted on Archer after I said that voting is always a good thing. Probably felt like she needed to vote with me calling her out on that. Interesting she followed my vote….

I needed something of a push. Like I said, I felt bad about Archer being misexed C2 of MR49, so I wasn't sure I was comfortable voting him. At which point you said it was probably fine and not a big deal, so I decided to do it. 

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

When Illwei voted on Whysper D1, Quinn pretty quickly asked for the reasoning…

To get a bead on Illwei, not to defend Whysper. my thought process may or may not have been that if she blew it out of proportion, she was probably elim.

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn going sus on Illwei for the “look at me I’m so town” does feel a bit odd in hindsight.

lol it wasn't just that, though--it was the sort of... fatalism? The assumption that she was gonna die when she wasn't even in the lead wow I'm just realizing that was something of a self-fulfilling prophecy oof and then she self-pres voted on someone else who... also wasn't in the lead. Instead of voting on Archer. Who I was voting on and suspected.

Also I love how you call me out for this but say nothing about Araris following it up by saying "I agree completely and I'm voting Illwei too". This seems very much like you're deliberately focusing on specific people and ignoring specific other people. Even if you're not suspicious of Araris anymore, you still should be applying the same standards to him as to me, because for all you know he's elim and I'm village. Well, unless you're elim, in which case you would know >>

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn assuming my read on Books because we were agreeing about a bunch of other stuff feels like putting reads in my mouth…

*blink* wait what? I have no recollection of doing that. Could you link to that post?

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hmm...Quinn was interested in what Archer thinks of Randby...I’ll keep that in mind when we get one of their flips. Though, to be fair, it was because Archer had done that thing where he was asking everyone questions.

er... yeah. I was asking because Archer wanted everyone to answer the questions he was asking, but he didn't answer the question he'd directed at himself.

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn started defending Whysper when she got two votes. Using the vote analysis stuff again to show that Whysper couldn’t have been defending anyone when she voted on Dannex (Archer was in the lead D1 when Whysper voted on Dannex). And also just Quinn was generally defending Whysper for a bit, right after Whysper first gained a couple votes on D2. 

I mean... I'd been reading Whysper village right up until she flipped elim, so yeah, I would imagine I defended her at times. Only... I can't find much of anything? Like, there's me advocating that Dannex die instead of Whysper, which I think is what you're referring to when you say I started defending her once she got two votes, but A. that had nothing to do with Whysper, I was worried (like Araris) that Dannex was elim and that even if he wasn't, he would eat up discussion in future cycles, and B. you attacked Dannex over Whysper too, so if that's what you mean, then it's rather hypocritical of you. I did explain why I didn't think that Whysper's vote on Dannex was inherently sus in and of itself--and I still don't think it was. People vote on new people for very little in D1 all the time, and sometimes those votes build into trains. Since the next few people to vote on Dannex were villagers (and we knew that, or I knew it anyway--I was one of them), I wasn't about to conclude that the train built up because she was elim. Therefore, the vote was NAI for her. I saw no reason to vote her for it. That was all.

Also, I was on for the end of D3 (from before Whysper had any votes until the end) and didn't feel any particular need to step in, though there were a couple of times where voting Books would have saved her. I mean, I'm gonna assume you won't believe me on that, but... can I put in blue text that I was on during that EoD?

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn village reading TJ even though he hadn’t really done much by then. Also saying she didn’t think Whysper was super elimmy in this same post.

Well of course TJ hadn't done much by then, he was GMing another game. But what he had done was high-effort and seemed like village him, so I said, truthfully, that I thought he was village. Not sure whether I still think that though. And yeah, I had a village read on Whysper, like I already said.

@Ashbringer I guess... I honestly don't know about this one. I guess Araris, Striker, and Elan, but I'm starting to doubt on Araris, and if Araris isn't elim then that makes me doubt on Striker, while if Striker is elim then that makes me doubt on Elandera somewhat. And I also feel like I should be including TJ in there somewhere. so yeah, idk. 

[StrikerEZ]

Quinn. I’m tired of this back and forth that’s going nowhere and I probably did go through the thread with some confirmation bias on Quinn. I probably won’t be on very much for the rest of the cycle. We’re getting ready for Easter lunch soon and then after that I have to drive back to campus. So, to make sure I’ve actually got a vote by the end: Elandera.

[Araris Valerian]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Can everyone list their top three off-the-top-of-your-head suspicions?

So I'm pretty sure that one or both of Striker/Quinn is elim. But I'm also a little worried that I'm counter-tunneling or something. And killing both Striker and Quinn seems likely to kill off the thread as well. @Quintessential, if you assume that I'm village, and that I just goofed and/or played suboptimally earlier in this game, then who would your top 3 suspicions be?

I guess since both Striker and Quinn see Elandera as elim then I probably don't want to vote for her. I think TJ and Connie are my two highest suspicions after Striker/Quinn. I'm not too sure that elim!TJ would have followed elim!Whysper onto Books. So that brings me back to Connie again, and whether to vote out an active player or a new pinch-hitter. Although, TJ has already voted Elandera and both Striker and Quinn seem headed in that direction as well. I guess I'm not going to change my vote, but I think I'd be happy voting off any of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie. I hope that at least 2 of those 4 players are elims.

[Quintessential]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Quintessential, if you assume that I'm village, and that I just goofed and/or played suboptimally earlier in this game, then who would your top 3 suspicions be?

I guess Striker, Elan, and TJ. I don't think there's a reason to suspect Connie, and I'm pretty sure Ash, Tani, Forge, and Books are all village based on interactions with Whysper. So if I'm not considering you, that leaves the three of them : P

[Araris Valerian]

19 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I guess Striker, Elan, and TJ. I don't think there's a reason to suspect Connie, and I'm pretty sure Ash, Tani, Forge, and Books are all village based on interactions with Whysper. So if I'm not considering you, that leaves the three of them : P

So if Striker is one of your top suspicions, does that change your opinion about Elandera? You and Striker both seem to suspect both each other and Elandera. TJ, another of your suspicions, is also voting on Elandera. If we assume that the elims aren't trying to bus this cycle (somewhat reasonable, given that they just lost a member), and assume that at least one of you/Striker/TJ is elim, then that suggests to me that Elandera is likely village.

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So if Striker is one of your top suspicions, does that change your opinion about Elandera? You and Striker both seem to suspect both each other and Elandera. TJ, another of your suspicions, is also voting on Elandera. If we assume that the elims aren't trying to bus this cycle (somewhat reasonable, given that they just lost a member), and assume that at least one of you/Striker/TJ is elim, then that suggests to me that Elandera is likely village.

Well, the top suspicion list isn't necessarily "I think these three people are elim together" so much as "I think these three people are the three individuals most likely to be elim." I don't think that TJ, Elan, and Striker make sense as the team--which is why I original said you, Elan, and Striker, with one of Elan or Striker potentially replaced by TJ. But yeah, that about Elandera makes sense, though if you die and flip elim I will now immediately want to exe her  

The problem for me is I'm kinda... hamstringed. Because my two most genuine, or at least longest-running, suspicions (you and Striker) have made it clear that if I attack either of you, you'll work together to get me exed. Or at least, that's how it seems. So I'm stuck pursuing half-formed suspicions on TJ and Elan (of which I'm more suspicious of Elan, which then directly contradicts the point you just made and I just agreed with), suspicions that I have in part in relation to either Striker or you. Also, I'm now starting to doubt my suspicion on you in the first place, just because of how you've acted this cycle--and I have no idea whether to trust that or my original read of you. You don't feel like LG74!Araris at all, for one thing. 

On the other hand, I am more suspicious of Striker now than I was before. That spoiler-box thing seemed rly selective and conf-biasy... except that it was selective in that it left you out, mostly, and it was more in response to me attacking you than anything, which then makes me think you and Striker are teammates, which directly contradicts with the read I'm getting from you.

So uh. Yeah. That's where my thought process is right now. Great place to be just 5 hours before EoD...

[|TJ|]

Checked back the timing of Elandera's vote on Books, and it's interesting to note that Books changed their vote from Araris to Whysper at the exact same time, so Elandera would not have had that info before she voted. So rolling back to before Books vote, it was 4-3-2 (Araris-Whysper-Books). If her intention was to save Whysper, she could have voted for Araris but perhaps she thought that would be suspicious. I don't know man, I'm confused. 4-3-3 is still not exactly in danger? Maybe elim teammate Araris? I don't see this. I'm keeping my vote though as I'm too tired to think of anything else and that vote was sus especially given it was prior to Books votes knowledge.  I was reading Quinn as village but I dislike self-votes as I see them as a way to AtE, so I'm not sure anymore. Village reading Araris. I also have to look more closely at the Whysper-Striker interaction.

Edit: I'm traveling and have lost signal. I've hit send but I have no idea when the post will actually be sent. 

[Quintessential]

13 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I was reading Quinn as village but I dislike self-votes as I see them as a way to AtE, so I'm not sure anymore. Village reading Araris. I also have to look more closely at the Whysper-Striker interaction.

*cough* you know Araris self-voted earlier in the game, right?

I mean yeah, it was meant to be an AtE... but like... elims aren't the only ones who get frustrated : P

Edit: also I actually was thinking Elan/Araris were e/e originally, for the weird D1 illwei-vote thing... which Araris and Striker have informed me is not a good reason for me to vote them because it's a D1 thing. Gahhh I still can't shake the suspicion that the team is Araris/Striker/Elan. Sorry guys. Probably tunneling but I keep coming back to it for some reason. idk.

Edit: why does everyone look down on reasoning from D1, anyway? During D1, villagers know basically nothing and very few have formed strong opinions, which means that elims stand out more and have to act harder to appear village than they do later on. Also, very few people think that what they say D1 will matter all that much (the little things, I mean; obviously people will come back to where your final vote was) so they let their guard down a bit more. In retrospect, they often become obvious (like, now that we know Dannex/Illwei/Archer was v/v/v, for example, which could tell us something about those who voted that cycle that are yet living).

Edited April 4, 2021 by Quintessential

[Elandera]

25 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

why does everyone look down on reasoning from D1, anyway? During D1, villagers know basically nothing and very few have formed strong opinions, which means that elims stand out more and have to act harder to appear village than they do later on.

Because that lack of information also leads to villagers making more mistakes that look elimy later. D1 is a chance for elims to slip up more because they hold far more information than anyone else, but it doesn't mean that villagers are infallible in their ignorance.

[Quintessential]

20 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Because that lack of information also leads to villagers making more mistakes that look elimy later. D1 is a chance for elims to slip up more because they hold far more information than anyone else, but it doesn't mean that villagers are infallible in their ignorance.

It's not when people make mistakes that you look for--it's when people seem to know more than they should. (not exactly what happened with this D1, no, but... like. as a general thing)

[Elandera]

18 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

It's not when people make mistakes that you look for--it's when people seem to know more than they should. (not exactly what happened with this D1, no, but... like. as a general thing)

Oh, that absolutely should be done. It's how a lot of elims have been caught on D1 over the years. 

When you said D1 reasoning, I thought you meant the reasons people give for certain votes on D1. Since most voters are village (usually), the reasons are vague and half-formed suspicions based on one or two things. However, if someone slips and seems to know more than a villager should, that's a different thing entirely to me.

[Quintessential]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

When you said D1 reasoning, I thought you meant the reasons people give for certain votes on D1. Since most voters are village (usually), the reasons are vague and half-formed suspicions based on one or two things. However, if someone slips and seems to know more than a villager should, that's a different thing entirely to me.

Nah, I meant "reasoning based on things people did during D1" lol

Which like. Araris was complaining that I was using D1 reasoning on him (or maybe it was Striker?). But. Like. the stuff that people do D1 doesn't go away, and everyone's the same alignment now that they were then... eh. 

Oh! I forgot to remove my self-vote, didn't I xD Quinn

[Elandera]

11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Which like. Araris was complaining that I was using D1 reasoning on him (or maybe it was Striker?). But. Like. the stuff that people do D1 doesn't go away, and everyone's the same alignment now that they were then... eh.

Basing reads solely on D1 can be tricky, but it's not necessarily bad if combined with other things. Some people, Striker included, tend to give off elim vibes early in a game no matter what, so I understand them not being keen on reasons based on D1. 

Just because some people disagree doesn't mean you should stop doing it, though. 

[Ashbringer]

Anyone have a vote count?

 

Looking back RandBy's Araris vote was before Araris mentioned switching from Books to Whysper. So that's less condemning that I thought. Still find it a bit weird that that's when RandBy chose to act, but Connie I expect will act differently. I'm looking at TJ/Striker. You too @Gneorndin.

[StrikerEZ]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Anyone have a vote count?

Elandera (2): TJ, Striker
Striker (1): Elandera
Araris (1): Forge
Quinn (1): Araris

Tani/Gneorndin (1): Ash

(On mobile, sorry for funky formatting)

Okay, so, looking back on things, I was totally going into that big read through on the thread with the confirmation bias of Quinn being an elim. I’m really not a fan of AtE (I avoided the thread for awhile because I was frustrated and didn’t want to AtE myself), and find that more often than not elims are the ones that are gonna use the AtE. I’m going to ignore Quinn for now though because I don’t want to deal with that. At least in terms of trying to decide what alignment I think she is. 

As for the Elandera, I think her dying will give us a lot of info we need. Araris has defended her. I’ve staunchly opposed her for most of this game. Quinn’s flip flopped on her. And everyone else has either avoided her or touched on her. Either way, I think her flip will be greatly revealing.