Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Tani has been awfully quiet of late and I remember being suspicious of them.

Edit: Wait @Matrim's Dice, why is the marketplace closed for this cycle too?

Do you have any particular reason to think Tani is connected to Whysper, or is this unrelated?

[Ookla of Colors]

I exist!

Sorry I cant do more today.

I vote for whoever has the most votes at the end of the day so vote manip is easier to avoid.

If its a tie I dont vote. Or my vote is RNGd. Whatever you pick.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Gneorndin said:

I exist!

Sorry I cant do more today.

I vote for whoever has the most votes at the end of the day so vote manip is easier to avoid.

If its a tie I dont vote. Or my vote is RNGd. Whatever you pick.

(Won’t be reflected as anything )

[Quintessential]

Okay! Finally, I have the time and motivation to sit down and do some serious analysis  Er... fair warning, this post is long.

Key:
Confirmed Village
Confirmed Elim
Useful votes (Raw Data section only)

Raw Data (not necessary reading, just for my reference):

Spoiler

D1:

Spoiler

Archer votes Illwei
Quinn votes Tani
Araris votes Archer
Striker votes Archer
Illwei votes TUO
TJ votes Randby/Connie
Quinn unvotes Tani
Books votes Araris
Books unvotes Araris
Quinn votes Archer
Illwei unvotes TUO, votes Whysper
Elan votes Tani
Tani votes Araris
Whysper votes Dannex
Forge votes Illwei
Illwei unvotes Whysper, votes Dannex
Quinn unvotes Archer, votes Illwei
Tani unvotes Araris, votes Dannex
Araris unvotes Archer, votes Illwei
Elan unvotes Tani, votes Illwei
Quinn unvotes Illwei, votes Dannex
Dannex votes Tani
Striker unvotes Archer, votes Dannex
Ash votes Dannex
Striker unvotes Dannex, votes Illwei

D2:

Spoiler

Elan votes Dannex
Quinn votes Araris
Striker votes Araris
Araris votes TJ
Whysper votes Striker
Quinn unvotes Araris, votes Dannex
Archer votes Elan
Whysper unvotes Striker, votes Dannex
Striker unvotes Araris, votes Dannex
Archer unvotes Elan, votes Whysper
Dannex unvotes Whysper
Tani votes Whysper
Tani unvotes Whysper, votes Dannex
TJ votes Elan
TJ unvotes Elan, votes Dannex
Forge votes Dannex
Books votes Whysper
Tani unvotes Dannex, votes Whysper
Ash tries to vote Whysper

D3:

Spoiler

Striker votes Araris
Quinn votes Araris
Araris votes Tani
Whysper votes Books
Tani votes Quinn, unvotes Quinn, votes Striker
Tani unvotes Striker, votes Quinn
Araris unvotes Tani, votes Books
Elan votes TJ
TJ votes Books
Books votes Araris
Araris unvotes Books, votes Araris
Ash votes Books
Araris unvotes Araris, votes Whysper 
Randby/Connie votes Araris
Forge votes Whysper
Ash unvotes Books, votes Whysper
Books unvotes Araris, votes Whysper
Elan unvotes TJ, votes Books

D4 (so far):

Spoiler

Araris votes Randby/Connie
Striker votes Elan
TJ votes Tani
Elan votes Striker

 

Analysis of Useful Votes:

Spoiler

By "useful votes" I mean votes that might have had unstated intentions behind them, or that could be used to discern relationships between players. That is, any vote that was placed by a confirmed villager isn't useful (in this sense), because that person doesn't have information on the other person's alignment. They intended (presumably) what they said they intended when they placed the vote. Similarly, any votes placed by a confirmed elim on a confirmed villager (or another confirmed elim) aren't useful, because we know both alignments already. Obviously the context of such a vote can make it important, but rn I'm just looking at votes in isolation--context will be examined in the next section.

C1 Useful Votes:

Spoiler

[1] Araris votes Archer
[2] Striker votes Archer
[3] TJ votes Randby/Connie
[4] Books votes Araris
[5] Books unvotes Araris
[6] Elan votes Tani
[7] Tani votes Araris
[8] Forge votes Illwei
[9] Tani unvotes Araris, votes Striker
[10] Araris unvotes Archer, votes Illwei
[11] Elan unvotes Tani, votes Illwei
[12] Striker unvotes Archer, votes Dannex
[13] Ash votes Dannex
[14] Striker unvotes Dannex, votes Illwei

Things I notice here (votes by persons of interest, patterns, etc.):

• In two places this cycle ([1, 2] and [10, 14]) Striker follows Araris's vote. Both times, the vote is on a now-confirmed villager.
• In between, Striker had voted Dannex, another now-confirmed villager. Obviously it's possible for someone to be wrong three times in the first cycle, but... I'm actually not sure what the probability of that is  hold on now I'm gonna calculate that... I calculated that the probability of a villager (using RNG to choose their votes) voting three different villagers in C1 of this game is 36% (assuming 4) elims. So... possible but...  then again, I did that (Archer, Illwei, Dannex) so who am I to judge...
• Tani votes for both Araris and Striker this cycle ([7, 9]) and no one else. Interesting to note, since Striker and Araris already have a vaguely tinfoily connection going on there  
• Books voted Araris for a very small thing (claiming Ruthar) and then quickly unvoted [4,5]. Distancing? (I wanted to say signaling and then had to remind myself that this isn't MR49 : P)
• Elan's votes were Tani [6] and Illwei [11]. Elan presumably wasn't following Araris onto Illwei, because iirc they posted at the same time and Elan, in her post, thought there was a tie between Illwei and Dannex. tbh ig this doesn't really say anything about Araris/Elan at all.
• Forge's vote seemed oddly reasonable to me for a new player, but that could easily be because Mat's her brother so I'll consider that NAI.
• Ash's vote on Dannex also NAI; at that point it was a tie between two villagers, so it didn't matter which one he picked, he woulda been wrong.

C2 Useful Votes:

Spoiler

[1] Elan votes Dannex
[2] Striker votes Araris
[3] Araris votes TJ
[4] Whysper votes Striker
[5] Whypser unvotes Striker, votes Dannex
[6] Striker unvotes Araris, votes Dannex
[7] Tani votes Whysper
[8] Tani unvotes Whysper, votes Dannex
[9] TJ votes Elan
[10] TJ unvotes Elan, votes Dannex
[11] Forge votes Dannex
[12] Books votes Whysper
[13] Tani unvotes Dannex, votes Whysper
[14] Ash tries to vote Whysper 

• Araris's only vote this cycle was on TJ [3], which I found odd because TJ was GMing the MR, so of course he wasn't saying anything. Araris has since clarified that he didn't realize TJ was GMing at the time, but it still seemed an odd choice of vote to me... as in, not one that would actually get results? It just reminds me of Illwei spending so much time talking about Pizza in the MR when Pizza was the inactive newbie, while not addressing other less active players who knew what they were doing. Not a perfect parallel, but that's what came to mind
• Striker immediately voted Araris this cycle [2], only to later unvote him (on my reasoning, I believe) and vote Dannex [6]. Tbh I could see that going either way, as an elim distancing from a teammate (or trying to get a suspicious villager exed), or as a villager genuinely voting on a suspicion and then switching to another suspicion. So... NAI?
• More concerning to me is Whysper voting and unvoting Striker in quick succession [4, 5]. That feels a bit like distancing to me, though I don't recall the exact reasoning for either vote, nor do I know what the actual time between those votes was. Still, worth noting I think.
• Tani voted Whysper and then quickly unvoted her [7, 8]. My tinfoil brain shouts at me that this was also distancing. 
• And then TJ votes Elan and then quickly unvotes her [9, 10]. Seriously, people, what is up with you??? You literally can't all be elims, but you keep doing things that make me want to think you are xD
• I have no idea what to make of Forge tbh so I'm just gonna leave [11] alone for now : P
• Books's vote on Whysper [12] is the first sign that Books is probably village. Though, paranoid me is shouting that since Dannex had 7 votes at the time, to Whysper's 2 (3 with Books), an elim could afford to vote Whysper for distancing... but then there's stuff from next cycle as well so I'm just gonna ignore the tinfoil for now
• It's Tani's vote on Whysper [13] that is really AI. the vote was 7-3 before she switched and 6-4 after, which is... a lot smaller of a gap, especially considering that the elims would have known Dannex had no reason to lie about having vote-manip (so really it was 5-4 after, not 6-4.) That is to say, contrary to all of the suspicion on her, Tani is almost certainly village--I mean, unless it turns out she wants to build up a bussing reputation worse than Araris's  
• Well, actually Ash's "vote" [14] is even more informative (assuming he's not an elim who deliberately timed posting that attempted vote just after the cycle had closed, which is, again, tinfoil). His vote would have brought the count from 6-4 (really 5-4 with vote-manip) to 6-5 (really 5-5), which had the potential to save v!Dannex and kill e!Whysper

C3 Useful Votes:

Spoiler

[1] Striker votes Araris
[2] Araris votes Tani
[3] Whysper votes Books
[4] Tani votes Quinn, unvotes Quinn, votes Striker
[5] Tani unvotes Striker, votes Quinn
[6] Araris unvotes Tani, votes Books
[7] Elan votes TJ
[8] TJ votes Books
[9] Books votes Araris
[10] Araris unvotes Books, votes Araris
[11] Ash votes Books
[12] Araris unvotes Araris, votes Whysper
[13] Randby/Connie votes Araris
[14] Forge votes Whysper 
[15] Ash unvotes Books, votes Whysper
[16] Books unvotes Araris, votes Whysper
[17] Elan unvotes TJ, votes Books

• Once again, Striker votes Araris [1]. Consistency is nice anyway?
• Idk what to make of Araris's vote on Tani [2]. I get the suspicion on her, and I suppose at the time we didn't know Whysper was elim so there was no argument against it. Eh. NAI I think. She was an easy target to an extent, but also the kind of easy target that I could see a villager going for.
• Whysper's vote on Books [3] is the second reason to trust Books. 
• [4, 5] are Tani doing her traditional vote-hopping. I am still not quite sure what she was referring to with comparing me to LG74 Maill, though...
• Araris voted Books [6], agreeing with Whysper and adding that we should have a Contribution Crusade. The other people who expressed explicit support for that idea were Striker and Whysper. Gears expressed explicit criticism, and I was going to but got interrupted halfway through writing the post and forgot (the problem with a Contribution Crusade is that it gives elims an excuse to vote on villagers without actually having a reason for it; also, it potentially leads to villagers dying just because they weren't able to be on, which at the point we were at last cycle, we couldn't afford (we would have reached parity after two misexes, at which point the elims could coordinate with impunity and we could do nothing about it, leading to them burning through our numbers to find Elhokar and win)). The fact that Whysper agreed to the Contribution Crusade, as well as the fact that 2/3 of the NKs so far have been inactives, makes me think that the elims are mostly or all active players... which makes me suspicious of active players who agreed to the Contribution Crusade (Striker and Araris).
• Elan's vote on TJ [7] is... idk. Why did people keep voting on TJ, is my question : P
• [12] makes me somewhat rethink my suspicion of Araris, but not really, because Araris was the first vote on Whysper and I could see elim!him figuring that he was going to die, so he might as well distance from a teammate (who he thought wouldn't be in any danger from his vote). It does seem an odd turnaround from agreeing with Whysper and (I think?) vil-reading her to voting her. Also, in his post Araris states that he's most sus of Gears, Striker, and Whysper, but doesn't want to vote Gears because Gears is inactive. Which is... uhhhhh you were literally just advocating for a Contribution Crusade like 1 page ago??? xD I guess what's bothering me about Araris rn is the contradictions, both with his usually meta and with himself within this game.
• [14-16] make me want to trust Forge as well as Ash and Books (who I already think are village). In this case it can't be "safe" distancing because it was in response to Books saying they'd vote Whysper if a couple of others agreed to also (at that time, Books would have been in the lead if they'd switched from Araris to Whysper). Ash and Forge both agreed, and the three of them put Whysper in the lead at the last second. So unless this team is seriously into bussing or something, I'm more or less clearing Ash, Forge, and Books for now. (especially since I was under the impression that most people trusted Whysper, so why would a team bus her and not a member that was under more suspicion?)

C4 Useful Votes:

Spoiler

[1] Araris votes Randby/Connie
[2] Striker votes Elan
[3] TJ votes Tani
[4] Elan votes Striker

• [1] makes sense sort of? But also, at the time Randby/Connie voted, it was a tie between Books and Araris with Whysper having only 2 votes. And I at least had thought that Whysper was village, and was kinda surprised when she got exed. So idk why village!Randby would have wanted to vote her off (since she wasn't one of the two main options, voting her would have caused a 3-way-tie, and she wasn't under too much scrutiny before).
• [2] makes more sense, kind of. But only if you think that Araris is elim too (which Striker says he doesn't anymore?). See, the thing is, when Elandera voted the votes were Araris:Books:Whysper 3:2:4 and she voted Books, making it 3:3:4. Even if the elims had vote-manip (and their vote-manipper was on to see the last-minute switch and counteract it), that would still have made it a tie, which doesn't necessarily save Whysper. If Elan had voted Araris, it would have made it 4:2:4, creating a tie in the even that the elims don't have a vote-manipper and saving Whysper in the event that they do. That is, e!Elan would have been better off voting Araris unless Araris was also elim. Or, I suppose, unless she didn't know what the VC was (which is possible because I'm pretty sure I'm the only person keeping track in real time : P). But still, idk why you would think Elan is elim unless you at least suspect Araris too, and at this point there are more reasons to suspect him than her imo.
• [3] I get but go read my thing about Tani's Whysper vote on D2. Pretty sure she's vil. 
• [4] I get this too xD I'm going to tentatively say that Striker and Elan aren't both elim, but this could also be distancing ig? : P

 

Important conclusions from that section: Tani, Ash, Books, and Forge are all village (Ash and Books I'm essentially certain about, Tani and Forge only slightly less so). Araris and Striker both have interesting connections to Whysper, and each other, which makes me suspicious of both of them. Araris also keeps contradicting his meta. The elim team is probably mostly or entirely composed of more active players.

Analysis of Important VCs:

Spoiler

D1:

Spoiler

Illwei (2): Archer, Forge
Archer (3): Araris, Striker, Quinn
Randby/Connie (1): TJ
Tani (1): Elan
Araris (1): Tani
Dannex (2): Whysper, Illwei
This is the VC when Archer has the most votes. Not actually that noteworthy tbh, but I've already skipped a ton from C1 so I wanted to start here instead of even further on. Except that I don't... actually... have much to say. My general rule about there being elims on a large train doesn't apply anywhere here, because the longest train is three people and that's not enough when there's 16 players. : P

Illwei (5): Archer, Forge, Quinn, Araris, Elan
Archer (1): Striker
Randby/Connie (1): TJ
Dannex (3): Whysper, Illwei, Tani
Here, I can do something. This is the first peak in the number of votes on Illwei. There is probably at least one elim in [Forge, Araris, Elan], and as I've said, I'm pretty sure Forge isn't elim. So... [Araris, Elan]?

Illwei (4): Archer, Forge, Araris, Elan
Connie (1): TJ
Dannex (6): Whysper, Illwei, Tani, Quinn, Striker, Ash
Tani (1): Dannex
This is most votes that Dannex has during this cycle. Of course, since we already know of an elim on Dannex, I can't necessarily draw conclusions here. Would note, though, that of the three un-confirmed Dannex voters, two of them are people I've more or less confirmed village already. If there is another elim on this train, it's probably Striker.

Illwei (5): Archer, Forge, Araris, Elan, Striker
Connie (1): TJ
Dannex (5): Whysper, Illwei, Tani, Quinn, Ash
Tani (1): Dannex
Final VC from D1. At least one of [Forge, Araris, Elan, Striker] is elim. Possibly more than one. Probably not Forge. 

D2:

Spoiler

Actually, D2's interesting because it's basically just trains on Dannex and Whysper growing and growing. The only VC in it that allows me to conclude anything that I haven't already is the final one.

Dannex (6): Elan, Quinn, Whysper, Striker, TJ, Forge
TJ (1): Araris
Whysper (4): Archer, Dannex, Books, Tani
I'm actually guessing that in this case, all four of the people voting on Whysper are village. The first two are confirmed, obviously, and the circumstances under which the last two voted (both this cycle and the next one) suggest that they're vil. Ash's attempted vote does the same. Dannex already has a confirmed elim on him, but given that all but two players voted (or in Ash's case, tried to vote), and given that an elim was at least on the table as an exe candidate, I'd say there's probably at least one more elim voting Dannex. So, [Elan, Striker, TJ, Forge], of which I'd once again rule out Forge. 

D3:

Spoiler

Araris (2): Striker, Quinn
Books (2): Whysper, Araris
Quinn (1): Tani
TJ (1): Elan
At this point, Araris and Books are tied. TJ is about to come along and break that tie... in favor(?) of Books. >> starting to think TJ may be the fourth elim actually. Not just this, but also the late vote on Dannex the previous cycle.

Araris (4): Striker, Quinn, Books, Araris
Books (2): Whysper, TJ
Quinn (1): Tani
TJ (1): Elan
hey look Araris and Striker are voting on the same person again!  In seriousness, though this is technically the first peak of votes on Araris. Actually, I probably shoulda chosen the next VC, not this one : P Ash is about to vote on Books, after which Araris will switch his vote to Whysper. Tbh, it may be confbias but I can't help seeing that as e!Araris thinking he might die and deciding to distance from a teammate that he doesn't think will get voted off (or who, being vanilla, is more expendable than whatever Araris is, so he can afford to take that risk). I can see all sorts of reasons for e!Araris to vote Whysper : P

Araris (4): Striker, Quinn, Books, Randby/Connie
Books (2): Whysper, TJ
Quinn (1): Tani
TJ (1): Elan
Whysper (3): Araris, Forge, Ash
This is the second peak in the votes on Araris. Books is about to switch to voting Whysper, now that it's safe for them to do so (before, Ash was voting Books, so Books removing their vote from Araris would have resulted in a tie between the two of them). Since Araris hasn't flipped yet, this doesn't necessarily mean anything--but I'd actually think that even if he's elim, there might be an elim on him... so... [Striker, Books, Randby/Connie]?

Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Randby/Connie
Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Elan
Quinn (1): Tani
Whysper (4): Araris, Forge, Ash, Books
This is the final VC. If there is an elim on Whysper, it's Araris. I'd also guess that if there is an elim on Araris, it's Striker. Whether there is or not, idk, but if there's not it almost certainly means that TJ and/or Elan are elims. 

 

Conclusions:

I'll make this section short. Basically, I'm currently guessing that the team is Whysper/Araris/Striker/Elan, with maybe one of Striker or Elan being replaced by TJ. And I'll be voting Araris.

More generally, of the ten living players, I know that I'm village and I am pretty confident that Tani, Ash, Books, and Forge are too, which leaves a PoE of Araris, TJ, Striker, Elan, Randby/Connie. And personally, I haven't seen much of anything suspicious from Randby (and nothing at all from Connie, who I assume is still catching up). Beyond that, the fact that Whysper was willing to agree to a Contribution Crusade and the fact that two of the NKs so far were clearly meant to be low-info make me think that the elims are mostly on the more active side--which would definitely rule out Randby/Connie, and probably also TJ.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Quintessential
formatting

[Araris Valerian]

18 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also, in his post Araris states that he's most sus of Gears, Striker, and Whysper, but doesn't want to vote Gears because Gears is inactive. Which is... uhhhhh you were literally just advocating for a Contribution Crusade like 1 page ago???

So the issue here is that Gears was inactive for explicitly stated IRL reasons. There's a difference between killing off players who are just choosing not to participate, and those who are too busy to do so. The first is sensible if you think the elims could be hiding in the quiet, while the second is rather rude. I also think you are ignoring that massive shift in perspective I had on the game following my reread of the previous cycles. 

20 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

makes me somewhat rethink my suspicion of Araris, but not really, because Araris was the first vote on Whysper and I could see elim!him figuring that he was going to die, so he might as well distance from a teammate (who he thought wouldn't be in any danger from his vote).

I think you're ignoring some very important things that happened last cycle, and it's making me a lot more suspicious of you. Not only did I vote Whysper, I actively pursued getting other players to move their votes onto her as well. I'd bet a lot that nobody would have followed me onto Whypser if I hadn't made those further posts.

Directed toward Books:

Quote

If everyone seems likely to be an elim, would you be willing to vote on Whysper instead of me?

Directed toward Ash:

Quote

Yeah, that is a good point, I guess. @Ashbringer, would you consider voting for Whysper instead of Books? I gave a couple of minor reasons why I think Books is village, at least for now.

Forge also voted on Whysper in response to me asking Books to move there:

Quote

  On 4/1/2021 at 7:41 PM, Flyingbooks said:

I would be willing to switch to Whysper if there are enough other willing people so that I would not be exed.

I can vote on Whysper.

You are also ignoring Randby's rather late vote on me last cycle. How is it not suspicious to vote late in a cycle when there has been a sudden swing onto another player that happens to flip elim?

I agree with your initial POE, but after that you seem rather selective about events. At this point you are either an elim deliberately trying to discredit me, or a villager that has spent too much time digging with Striker. Honestly Whysper/Striker/Quinn/Connie-Randby wouldn't surprise me at this point for the elim team.

[Condensation]

16 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Guess we're back to low-info kills then. Gears had literally one mention in my notes doc, and it was his name in the list of players at the beginning : P

Also, hey Connie!  welcome to the game

(fun fact, this is the first time I have ever survived past C3 in a Long Game. I'm so proud of myself! )

Hello there! Congratulations - and I'll need a moment. Or a couple of days - General Conference!

[Ashbringer]

... I forgot to follow the thread. Again. Will be back in the afternoon.

[Quintessential]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

So the issue here is that Gears was inactive for explicitly stated IRL reasons. There's a difference between killing off players who are just choosing not to participate, and those who are too busy to do so. The first is sensible if you think the elims could be hiding in the quiet, while the second is rather rude. I also think you are ignoring that massive shift in perspective I had on the game following my reread of the previous cycles. 

Ah, okay, I missed that in my reread of the cycle.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Not only did I vote Whysper, I actively pursued getting other players to move their votes onto her as well. I'd bet a lot that nobody would have followed me onto Whypser if I hadn't made those further posts.

Given that Whysper was vanilla, I could still see reasons for e!you to vote her, knowing that people who voted her last cycle might do so again. I'll keep it in mind, I suppose, but I still feel there have been many things... off, about you this game, and I can't forget that you have bussed teammates before, much as I would like to ignore that sort of paranoia (it would make this whole process much simpler if I could). Your attacks on Whysper last cycle aren't enough, at the end of the day, to counterbalance my suspicion of you even if I see them as genuine attempts to get her exed.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Forge also voted on Whysper in response to me asking Books to move there:

...well that was in response to Books, but I suppose Books was in response to you so I see why you bring it up. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

You are also ignoring Randby's rather late vote on me last cycle. How is it not suspicious to vote late in a cycle when there has been a sudden swing onto another player that happens to flip elim?

I explained specifically why it wasn't suspicious in my previous post, but I'll reiterate. Randby's vote was placed when the VC was

Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Books
Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Ash
Quinn (1): Tani
TJ (1): Elan
Whysper (1): Araris

That is, when Randby placed her vote, Whysper wasn't in any danger at all. The only person voting for her was one of the people who was under suspicion and tied for most votes. Randby's vote would be suspicious if I thought Books was elim, but since I think Books is basically confirmed vil based on interactions from the past two cycles (and you seem to agree with me) Randby's vote isn't sus at all. It's just a choice between the two main exe targets at the time.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I agree with your initial POE, but after that you seem rather selective about events. At this point you are either an elim deliberately trying to discredit me, or a villager that has spent too much time digging with Striker. Honestly Whysper/Striker/Quinn/Connie-Randby wouldn't surprise me at this point for the elim team.

From my inital PoE, I eliminate myself and two others. I don't really see how that's "rather selective". 

I'm kind of curious: what are you suspicious of with Connie/Randby? Is it just that Randby voted you instead of Books? I mean... it's not like there was really much reasoning on Books in the first place, so I definitely understand why she voted you. 

Also, how do you feel about Elan? You've played with her more than I have--do you have a read on her or anything yet?

Edited April 3, 2021 by Quintessential

[|TJ|]

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Do you have any particular reason to think Tani is connected to Whysper, or is this unrelated?

I have been extremely disconnected with the game, and I'm voting only for tidbits I saw when I glanced the thread. This was because I thought there was a connection between Tani and Quinn, and was paranoid was to why Quinn survived the night despite being read as village, so wanted to if there was Tani - Quinn connection.

Having read Quinn's post (excluding her personal opinions, as in purely recalling the votes) has really helped me recap the events, so thanks for that. However, differing from Quinn, I'm only clearly players based on D2 and not D3, as the flip was waaaay too weird and too coordinate-y (just coordinated? xD) to be all village. So clearing Tani and Books. Tani a bit less because of voting Whysper, unvoting and changing back to Whysper - I have a feeling Tani would be a very bussy elim.

Ashbringer, the problem I have is, Ash has been on point with late votes in my game. So if he really wanted to tie the vote, I feel like we would have gotten in before the rollover. Checking the timestamp via developer tool, he was about 8 seconds late, which is enough to make sure that Mat had posted EoD. Just to clarify, I do not suspect them, but I'm not clearing them either.

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

• And then TJ votes Elan and then quickly unvotes her [9, 10]. Seriously, people, what is up with you??? You literally can't all be elims, but you keep doing things that make me want to think you are xD

 I've already stated that the rollover for me is 5:30am so I won't be on for the last 5 or so hours of the cycle. My voting and unvoting had around 2-3 hours gap. I was more suspicious of Elan but no one followed it up in those hours, so I changed my vote to somewhere it mattered, and someone whom I had suspected in the previous cycle.

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

At this point, Araris and Books are tied. TJ is about to come along and break that tie... in favor(?) of Books. >> starting to think TJ may be the fourth elim actually. Not just this, but also the late vote on Dannex the previous cycle.

Again, since I was out of snyc with what was happening and just glancing through posts to catch up, I was following my previous cycle suspicion on Books. And also "late vote on Dannex"? When I'm pretty sure I went to sleep around 1, meaning 4:30 hrs before rollover?

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

• More concerning to me is Whysper voting and unvoting Striker in quick succession [4, 5]. That feels a bit like distancing to me, though I don't recall the exact reasoning for either vote, nor do I know what the actual time between those votes was. Still, worth noting I think.

This interaction is the one I remember and probably why I think Striker is village, He was the first to state suspicion on Whysper (though granted it was prompted by Archer's "Hey X! What do you think of Y?" and it looked like Whysper voted in retaliation and there was just a back and forth of apologies and okay now that I've completed my thought process I'm getting paranoid of Striker xD But yes, interaction too weird for e/e I think. Bah.

Sorta agree with Araris that Quinn might have been a bit too selective, and if Quinn was a elim, she'd mention the teammates who would fall under suspicion but not explicitly focus on them. I'll join him on RandBy/Connie. Also if Quinn is elim, sorta suspicious on Elandera cause it looks she's mentioned but not overtly focused. Also, she seemed way too confident that Araris was village.

Edit: Wait

11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Books
Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Ash
Quinn (1): Tani
TJ (1): Elan
Whysper (1): Araris

This was the VC when RandBy voted? I remember the vote being a lot later actually, when there were votes on Whysper. I'll just check to make sure, because if it is, my sus on RandBy would be lesser.

Edited April 3, 2021 by TJ Shade

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Dannex (5): Whysper, Illwei, Tani, Quinn, Ash

Did we just get an elim slip from Quinn?

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

But only if you think that Araris is elim too (which Striker says he doesn't anymore?)

At the time you were making this post, I was definitely still thinking Araris was an elim. I'm less sure about that now, but only because I'm starting to think that you're an elim. I can't decide if Araris's counterpoint is v!Araris calling you out for you shading him a bunch and ignoring some pretty important things (which I forgot about after Whysper died) that he did to get Whysper killed, or e!Araris trying to discredit your valid analysis. I think...I think I'm actually leaning elim on you and village on Araris. Which is a surprise, after I've been tunneling on him all game. I just...I don't think Araris would actively try and get a bunch of people to bus his teammate like that. And you trying to shade him for that while missing the important parts of him trying to get others to vote on Whysper feels like a way to direct the already underlying suspicion of Araris into an exe on him.

@Araris Valerian @TJ Shade Would either of you be willing to vote Quinn or Elandera with me? Those are my two elim reads right now. I don't particularly want to vote out a player who just got into the game, and I think getting info on one of those two would help a lot.

[|TJ|]

8 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Araris Valerian @TJ Shade Would either of you be willing to vote Quinn or Elandera with me? Those are my two elim reads right now. I don't particularly want to vote out a player who just got into the game, and I think getting info on one of those two would help a lot.

Yeah I just went back and checked after Quinn's comment on the VC at the time and I thought RandBy's vote was a lot later than it actually was. So I'll join in on Elandera.

[forget me not]

So much was happening all at once. Cara finally felt like she was figuring things out, but it was hard to keep track of everything. Right now though, she was taking a break. She was sitting in the shade of a building, unnoticed, with her favorite book. She was alert of her surroundings, yet giving her undivided attention to the book which rested on her lap. It was such a beautiful day. What could possibly go wrong?

---

Ok. So:

I trust Quinn right now. I think, from what she has said, that she is village. I also think Books is good. They seem village to me.

I don't trust Araris. They are reading elim to me. It's partly gut-read but I also find them sus. I found it weird that their suspicions on Quinn are based on her cheerfulness, and nothing in her posts seemed out of the ordinary to me, but then again, I don't know what "ordinary" looks like. So for now, I guess I'll vote on Araris

Also, why are people ( @StrikerEZ @TJ Shade ) suddenly voting on Elandera? That seems weird to me, but I might have missed something.

(There you go. That was my attempt at analysis.)

Edited April 3, 2021 by forget me not

[Condensation]

Okay. I'm kinda busy... but I'll reread the rules now, when I've got a bit of time.

Oh hey, that wasn't as bad as I thought. Okay.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Condensation

[Araris Valerian]

53 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I explained specifically why it wasn't suspicious in my previous post, but I'll reiterate. Randby's vote was placed when the VC was

Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Books
Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Ash
Quinn (1): Tani
TJ (1): Elan
Whysper (1): Araris

30 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah I just went back and checked after Quinn's comment on the VC at the time and I thought RandBy's vote was a lot later than it actually was/

Valid points, which lessen my suspicion of Randby. For some reason I had though Elandera and Randby voted at similar times, but I guess that is just because people were grouping them together. I still think elim!Randby might have reacted to my vote on Whysper with a vote on me, but it's not worth killing a pinch-hitter yet, I suppose.

 

44 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Araris Valerian @TJ Shade Would either of you be willing to vote Quinn or Elandera with me? Those are my two elim reads right now. I don't particularly want to vote out a player who just got into the game, and I think getting info on one of those two would help a lot.

I'm willing to vote Quinn. Although I think I'll still be pretty suspicious of you regardless of Quinn's flip, due to your strong connection to Whysper. I think we would have to assume that Elandera had an incorrect vote count for it to be likely that she's elim. Otherwise she could just vote one me and have a 50% chance to save Whysper.

[Condensation]

I am no longer Randby! I'm General Conobi - did you see the first thing I said?

I'm assuming - although Mat would have the last word - that you don't have to say Randby/Connie in your votes. Since I am me.

So, is there anything important that happened I should know about? I noticed you killed Whysper. Good job!

[Quintessential]

53 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Did we just get an elim slip from Quinn?

Shoot, they've caught me!

56 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I have been extremely disconnected with the game, and I'm voting only for tidbits I saw when I glanced the thread. This was because I thought there was a connection between Tani and Quinn, and was paranoid was to why Quinn survived the night despite being read as village, so wanted to if there was Tani - Quinn connection.

I'm actually also confused why I've survived this long, except that it seems the elims are NKing inactives whenever they feel they're not being threatened (Archer was likely NKd because he was the strongest voice against Whysper during D2). To be honest, that's part of what makes me think Araris is elim--I can't think who else in this game wouldn't have NKd me by now : P (except for Illwei, who's dead). The grace period for always dying early seems to be three cycles, so...

59 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

However, differing from Quinn, I'm only clearly players based on D2 and not D3, as the flip was waaaay too weird and too coordinate-y (just coordinated? xD) to be all village. So clearing Tani and Books. Tani a bit less because of voting Whysper, unvoting and changing back to Whysper - I have a feeling Tani would be a very bussy elim.

I mean... it was coordinated in-thread, so yeah? Books said "does anyone else think neither of the options are any good, and would they vote Whysper with me?" and Ash and Forge said sure. Somehow I doubt the elim team would link themselves like that, which is why I'm clearing all three of them.

As for Ash, yeah I acknowledge he could have done what you said but I personally think it's unlikely. Because in order for that to be the case, e!Ash would have had to look at the near-tie between a villager and an elim and think "distancing opportunity!" instead of "shoot my teammate might die!" which in my personal experience is not the thought process for most elims. I could see that being something that, say, Maill would do, or someone else who's fond of gambits, but I... don't think that's Ash. I'd find it more believable if you tried to argue that Ash was last-minute bussing his teammate because he wanted to use it for an RP opportunity

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Again, since I was out of snyc with what was happening and just glancing through posts to catch up, I was following my previous cycle suspicion on Books. And also "late vote on Dannex"? When I'm pretty sure I went to sleep around 1, meaning 4:30 hrs before rollover?

Late in terms of when people were vote--you were the second-to-last person on Dannex, I believe? Not sure. Regardless, having stepped back from it a bit I don't think I'd pursue my suspicion of you unless Araris flipped elim and I was out of other ideas.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

This interaction is the one I remember and probably why I think Striker is village, He was the first to state suspicion on Whysper (though granted it was prompted by Archer's "Hey X! What do you think of Y?" and it looked like Whysper voted in retaliation and there was just a back and forth of apologies and okay now that I've completed my thought process I'm getting paranoid of Striker xD But yes, interaction too weird for e/e I think. Bah.

Ohhhh wait wait wait you're right I'd forgotten about that. : P there are some downsides to looking at pure votes on occasion. Hmmm okay less certain about Striker, in that case. Striker/Whysper... hmmm. Maybe doesn't make as much sense as I thought. Striker still feels off... but as with you, I'm obviously not immediately pursuing my suspicion of him either. The truth is I don't have much more than gut on him--which is part of why I have such a bad gut feeling about him... I don't know what to think about Striker. He's very confusing xD

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Sorta agree with Araris that Quinn might have been a bit too selective, and if Quinn was a elim, she'd mention the teammates who would fall under suspicion but not explicitly focus on them. I'll join him on RandBy/Connie. Also if Quinn is elim, sorta suspicious on Elandera cause it looks she's mentioned but not overtly focused. Also, she seemed way too confident that Araris was village.

Yes but if I was village what would I do with people who haven't done much but are vaguely on my radar? (hint: probably I'd mention them but not explicitly focus on them). : P before you state that elim!me would do something, you might try considering scenarios where village!me might do the same thing. 

Elandera I agree with  (the suspicion on her I mean). I just don't have much to say about her because she hasn't said much and this is my... second or third game playing with her, I think, so I don't have much of a bead on her. Also, I notice that Araris never explicitly mentioned her either, which is why I asked whether he had any opinions on her. Which... he didn't really answer >>

42 minutes ago, forget me not said:

Also, why are people ( @StrikerEZ @TJ Shade ) suddenly voting on Elandera? That seems weird to me, but I might have missed something.

Elandera has voted oddly a couple of times (D1 she voted to break a tie when there... wasn't actually a tie; D3, just now, she voted Books without reasoning and at kind of a weird time to be voting Books at all, especially given that we now know Whysper was elim.)

28 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm willing to vote Quinn. Although I think I'll still be pretty suspicious of you regardless of Quinn's flip, due to your strong connection to Whysper. I think we would have to assume that Elandera had an incorrect vote count for it to be likely that she's elim. Otherwise she could just vote one me and have a 50% chance to save Whysper.

Wait is there a strong connection between Whysper and Striker that I'm missing??? *checks my original analysis post* well the only thing I have is that Whysper voted and then quickly unvoted Striker, which TJ has pointed out was done in a way that would be... weird for two elims to fake. I mean, effective, sure, but weird. 

Also, you didn't really answer my question about Elandera. I have all the mechanical arguments about her already, but I was wondering what read you have on her, independent of Whysper's flip or anything else like that. More based on tone or gut or whatnot. 

Striker and Araris, would you mind explaining the reasons behind your elim read of me? I mean... is it just the analysis post that I did, or is there more going back to previous cycles? So far what I've seen is that I missed stuff about context--which, first of all, of course I did because it took me three hours to write that post as it is, and second of all, of course I did because the point of my style of analysis is to consider votes only, without the context. It's not perfect, but personally I find it way too easy for elims to convince me they're village just because they sound reasonable, irrespective of what they actually do (Maill in LG74, Gears in MR46, I could go on but you get the idea). So when I do this kind of analysis, I look at what people do and less at what they say, because otherwise I never get anywhere.

Besides which, seeing how people respond is always informative  

[Elandera]

Vote count for reference:

Connie (0) - Araris, TJ
Elandera (2) - Striker, TJ
Tani (0) - TJ
Striker (1) - Elandera
Araris (2) - Quinn, Forge
Quinn (1) - Araris

I really don't like the exe on Araris, as I've stated multiple times. The one on me makes more sense, but I still don't like it.  

Striker is still my strongest read, but Quinn's a close second. I'll switch later if no one seems inclined to join me on Striker.

Ninja'd by Quinn

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Elandera has voted oddly a couple of times (D1 she voted to break a tie when there... wasn't actually a tie; D3, just now, she voted Books without reasoning and at kind of a weird time to be voting Books at all, especially given that we now know Whysper was elim.)

D1 was to distance from a tie (because vote manip), not to break one. D3 was because I really didn't like the late swing and figured more people would stay on Books. It had nothing to do with the target of the swing, just that there was one on a day where so many people (myself included) had been ambivalent about the exe vote. As shown by the last LG, that kind of setup usually allows elims to control the exe and I was concerned that was what happened.

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Wait is there a strong connection between Whysper and Striker that I'm missing??? *checks my original analysis post* well the only thing I have is that Whysper voted and then quickly unvoted Striker, which TJ has pointed out was done in a way that would be... weird for two elims to fake. I mean, effective, sure, but weird.

It goes beyond just the votes. There is the strange activity there, but also that Striker verbally expressed doubt about the late swing much like I did, but did nothing to act on it. That to me appears to be an elim teammate who doesn't want to act to save their teammate in case it doesn't work but also hoping to get people to hesitate to add more votes or to get them to remove their votes. Granted, it was in the final minute so even creating a tie like he could have would have been a gamble with vote manipulation. Yes, I realize how this sounds coming from me of all people...

[Araris Valerian]

15 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Striker and Araris, would you mind explaining the reasons behind your elim read of me?

My elim read on you and Striker is because you both have pretty strongly pushed my death for most of the game, largely based on a vote I made D1, the least useful of the cycles. You in particular seem very eager to kill off the person that was responsible for the death of an eliminator. Like, I appreciate both you and Striker contributing to the discussion, which is why I initially didn't vote for either of you, but it's getting tiresome having to defend myself from really trivial stuff plus my reputation from past games. You and Striker also have agreed an uncomfortable amount with each other this game, at least prior to this cycle, which again makes me think that one or both of you are elims.

 

18 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also, you didn't really answer my question about Elandera. I have all the mechanical arguments about her already, but I was wondering what read you have on her, independent of Whysper's flip or anything else like that. More based on tone or gut or whatnot. 

I don't think it's useful to consider any information independent of the rest of what we've seen. We should be looking at everything right now in the light of Whysper's flip, since that is the primary concrete bit of evidence we have to go on. I don't think I have a gut read one way or the other on her.

 

21 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Wait is there a strong connection between Whysper and Striker that I'm missing???

It's not really based on votes, although Whysper did vote Striker briefly during D2. It's more that Whysper mentioned Striker multiple times while progressing from an elim read to a village read. Whysper didn't really interact with many players, so Striker sticks out as a result.

[Quintessential]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

My elim read on you and Striker is because you both have pretty strongly pushed my death for most of the game, largely based on a vote I made D1, the least useful of the cycles. You in particular seem very eager to kill off the person that was responsible for the death of an eliminator. Like, I appreciate both you and Striker contributing to the discussion, which is why I initially didn't vote for either of you, but it's getting tiresome having to defend myself from really trivial stuff plus my reputation from past games. You and Striker also have agreed an uncomfortable amount with each other this game, at least prior to this cycle, which again makes me think that one or both of you are elims.

I don't think it's useful to consider any information independent of the rest of what we've seen. We should be looking at everything right now in the light of Whysper's flip, since that is the primary concrete bit of evidence we have to go on. I don't think I have a gut read one way or the other on her.

It's not really based on votes, although Whysper did vote Striker briefly during D2. It's more that Whysper mentioned Striker multiple times while progressing from an elim read to a village read. Whysper didn't really interact with many players, so Striker sticks out as a result.

If elim!me wanted to kill the person responsible for the death of her teammate, specifically because that person was responsible for the death of her teammate, she would just NK them  as it is, obviously it's not your getting Whysper exed that's driving this, since I've voted you both previous cycles, when Whysper was still alive.

As for "trivial stuff", when I caught Illwei originally in MR48 it was because she slipped up in C1, said there might be five elims, and then a page later dismissed the idea when someone else suggested it independently; Bard I caught for only final-voting the main train each cycle and only poke-voting villagers, Ash for a single vote in C2, and Kings for a single post where they said something that made it clear they'd been paying more attention than it had seemed. In LG74 I figured out you were elim because of the timing of your voting and unvoting Ash in C2, and I got Maill purely based on gut in PMs, while I missed Illwei because I ignored the "trivial" connections between you and her (you defended her C1) in favor of the larger, seemingly not-e/e connections between her and Maill. Trivial stuff seems to be what I'm good at--and in the past the people who've told me not to vote based on trivial stuff have turned out to be elims. Which may be incidental, but it's made me wary.

Me and Striker agreeing is weirding me out too, and has been all game (though I haven't said anything because what would I have said? "bad gut on Striker because he keeps saying exactly what I was thinking"? "I think Striker's elim because his posts read super village and I agree with them"? "Striker's pocketing me by reading my mind and saying the things I was going to say"?). Unfortunately, now I don't trust my read on Striker because you seem like you'd be willing to vote him. I don't know what to think about him, basically. 

Regarding Elandera: I'm not asking you because I'd ever actually take your word for what to think about Elandera, I'm asking to get a bead on you. She was the only one of my suspicions (edit: by which I mean my PoE) that you left out of your team guess without actually saying why, so I wanted to get a better idea of what you think of her qualitatively, something that would be harder for an elim to fake, especially about a teammate (which, remember, my current guess says she is one). I am worried that I'm tunneling on a villager, and if I am I want to give you as many chances as possible to convince me of it and convince me to change my vote. On the other hand, if I'm right about you, I want to get as much info and as many connections from you as I can before you die. Make sense?

As for Whysper/Striker, that does make sense... I don't know. I worry that if I switch my vote now I'll regret it (like I have the past couple of times when I backed down under criticism : P), but then I also worry that this time I'm wrong and it would be a good idea to switch my vote. Unfortunately, I don't particularly trust the people who are actually weighing in on the issue, except for Forge, who's new. Which means that anything anyone's said feels like it's slanted to steer me away from actual elims... you see what I mean? 

 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Quintessential

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

I don't know what to think about Striker. He's very confusing xD

I'll take this as a compliment.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Striker and Araris, would you mind explaining the reasons behind your elim read of me? I mean... is it just the analysis post that I did, or is there more going back to previous cycles? So far what I've seen is that I missed stuff about context--which, first of all, of course I did because it took me three hours to write that post as it is, and second of all, of course I did because the point of my style of analysis is to consider votes only, without the context. It's not perfect, but personally I find it way too easy for elims to convince me they're village just because they sound reasonable, irrespective of what they actually do (Maill in LG74, Gears in MR46, I could go on but you get the idea). So when I do this kind of analysis, I look at what people do and less at what they say, because otherwise I never get anywhere.

I'd say that looking at just votes can be pretty informative a lot of the time, yes. However, in this context, Araris's vote has some interesting things in the context around it. Namely in that he was largely encouraging a whole bunch of other players that were around at the time to change their votes to Whysper. There was no reason to try and get other people to vote Whysper with him like that if he was doing the vote on Whysper for simply distancing. Him asking all those people to vote on Whysper with him was an invitation for a bus on Whysper to form because, at least as far as I remember, Whysper wasn't a super viable candidate before Araris even voted. Either Araris was doing some hardcore busing with Whysper (which feels a bit off because I don't think Whysper was online at all at the end there; either Araris just decided to bus her without her consent or there was some weirdness with Whysper telling Araris in the doc that she wanted him to bus her) or Araris is village. And I think your insistence to look at just the votes might be a way to drive an exe on a player that's already had a lot of suspicion throughout the game so far. Plus, with this many players left in the game, and the fact that mostly inactives have been dying to the kill, I could see you being on the elim team. It's certainly not the strongest reasoning, but I feel pretty confident that Araris is village and feel that you are hardcore pushing a narrative against him. Which sets off my alarm bells. Plus, you voted on someone else besides Whysper the turn she died. (Yes, I know I did too; I was worried that the last minute push onto her was being pushed by an elim team trying to save e!Araris or e!Books). 

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Me and Striker agreeing is weirding me out too, and has been all game (though I haven't said anything because what would I have said? "bad gut on Striker because he keeps saying exactly what I was thinking"? "I think Striker's elim because his posts read super village and I agree with them"? "Striker's pocketing me by reading my mind and saying the things I was going to say"?). Unfortunately, now I don't trust my read on Striker because you seem like you'd be willing to vote him. I don't know what to think about him, basically. 

I'm basically just trying to go through and make comments about things I disagree with people on, and sometimes agree with them too. There's really not that much to it. It just happens that we've been mind melding for the early parts of this game, but that's happened less and less as the game goes on. That just makes me think that it was just a thing that was happening and not one of us trying to pocket the other by agreeing with them a bunch. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

It's not really based on votes, although Whysper did vote Striker briefly during D2. It's more that Whysper mentioned Striker multiple times while progressing from an elim read to a village read. Whysper didn't really interact with many players, so Striker sticks out as a result.

I mean...I think that was more because she overreacted whenever I gave my thoughts on her that one point. She was worried about me having a negative read of her for something that she felt would end up with me tunneling on her, so she went hard in on giving me an elim read. And when I didn't double down on my suspicion of her (obviously was a mistake, but oh well), she started to realize that pushing my exe for my read of her that she felt was boxing her in wasn't going to lead to me being exed since I was being reasonable about her response. 

@TJ Shade: would you be willing to compromise and vote out Quinn (Elandera) with me and Araris? I'm starting to think she's really an elim. I've noticed that elims really tend to get defensive when they're under pressure, and I don't know if I'm reading things wrong, but Quinn is starting to feel defensive to me. Plus I think we'll be more likely to get a safe exe train on her over Elandera, who has been more low profile than Quinn has been. 

I'm working on going through the thread and making comments as I read, but it's slow going, so I figured I may as well post this before the shard eats it.  In the meantime: @Ashbringer @Condensation @Gneorndin @Flyingbooks you guys have any thoughts on who to kill? We have about half of the cycle left, but it never hurts to get your thoughts and votes out early. 

Vote Count:

Elandera (1): TJ
Striker (1): Elandera
Araris (2): Quinn, Forge
Quinn (2): Araris, Striker

[Quintessential]

9 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@TJ Shade: would you be willing to compromise and vote out Quinn (Elandera) with me and Araris? I'm starting to think she's really an elim. I've noticed that elims really tend to get defensive when they're under pressure, and I don't know if I'm reading things wrong, but Quinn is starting to feel defensive to me.

Plus I think we'll be more likely to get a safe exe train on her over Elandera, who has been more low profile than Quinn has been. 

To the first part; I think you're reading it wrong. I don't feel defensive, anyway... also as you remarked in the QF49 dead doc, I tend to get defensive/frustrated when I'm village too. Not sure I really like this vote on me tbh, especially with the second part? The point rn isn't to get a "safe" exe train, it's to get an exe train on an elim; also that's... blatantly favoring exeing an active player over an inactive one, which I thought we had said was something we were trying to avoid : P like, I get if you think I'm more sus, but you were voting on Elan before, rather than me... so if you don't really think I'm more sus... voting me just 'cause I've said more seems unfair. 

Also, I'm still a bit confused as to why you are sus of me. Araris has explained his reasons, but they don't really seem like... reasons you would have? I mean, I assume you can't be sus of me for pushing Araris's death, since even this cycle you said you thought he was elim. So what is it?

[StrikerEZ]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

To the first part; I think you're reading it wrong. I don't feel defensive, anyway... also as you remarked in the QF49 dead doc, I tend to get defensive/frustrated when I'm village too. Not sure I really like this vote on me tbh, especially with the second part? The point rn isn't to get a "safe" exe train, it's to get an exe train on an elim; also that's... blatantly favoring exeing an active player over an inactive one, which I thought we had said was something we were trying to avoid : P like, I get if you think I'm more sus, but you were voting on Elan before, rather than me... so if you don't really think I'm more sus... voting me just 'cause I've said more seems unfair. 

My thought process for the activity comments was that people have thoughts on you, while not many people have thoughts on Elandera. And even as a villager, the goal is to get exes to happen. If it means compromising with other people, then I'm all for it. And I'm starting to think you're more sus as I'm rereading the thread (gonna post all of those thoughts at once when I'm done)

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also, I'm still a bit confused as to why you are sus of me. Araris has explained his reasons, but they don't really seem like... reasons you would have? I mean, I assume you can't be sus of me for pushing Araris's death, since even this cycle you said you thought he was elim. So what is it?

It is because you're pushing Araris's death.

I've thought about things since the start of the turn, and I really don't think Araris is an elim, not with the fact that he was explicitly campaigning in the thread for votes on Whysper at the end there, when Whysper wasn't really around (as far as we know, at least) to give her thoughts on a possible bus. Araris seems to be specifically trying to avoid busing teammates who aren't around, and this feels like something he'd explicitly try to avoid. And the fact that you're still pushing on him so hard for this just seems off to me.

[Quintessential]

42 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I've thought about things since the start of the turn, and I really don't think Araris is an elim, not with the fact that he was explicitly campaigning in the thread for votes on Whysper at the end there, when Whysper wasn't really around (as far as we know, at least) to give her thoughts on a possible bus. Araris seems to be specifically trying to avoid busing teammates who aren't around, and this feels like something he'd explicitly try to avoid. And the fact that you're still pushing on him so hard for this just seems off to me.

Alright then, Striker (Araris). I, personally, am not liking how quickly you've gone from thinking Araris was sus, back when nobody agreed but me, to defending him, now that me and Forge are both voting him. Voting me for attacking Araris when you yourself were sus of Araris less than 24 hours ago doesn't make sense. I'm not buying that. I can understand a reversal of opinion, but you can't expect everyone who agreed with you before to have made the same reversal of opinion, and indeed I haven't.

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Alright then, Striker (Araris). I, personally, am not liking how quickly you've gone from thinking Araris was sus, back when nobody agreed but me, to defending him, now that me and Forge are both voting him. Voting me for attacking Araris when you yourself were sus of Araris less than 24 hours ago doesn't make sense. I'm not buying that. I can understand a reversal of opinion, but you can't expect everyone who agreed with you before to have made the same reversal of opinion, and indeed I haven't.

I'm working on the big post that's convincing me more and more that you're an elim, but can't say I'm surprised to see you voting on me now that I'm calling you out

It's not so much that I'm calling you out for not also having the same reversal as I've had on Araris. It's that I'm starting to see you as an elim in my mind, and the fact that you're continuing to push for Araris's exe while some of us are starting to realize that he seems more village than elim (obviously not all of us, but I'm not the only one and I started thinking this because of something someone else said) seems like an attempt to keep suspicion on Araris. He's been seen as suspicious throughout most of the game, and continuing to make him seem suspicious would be beneficial for elim!Quinn.

Anyway, I guess I'm cool with joining the tie group with you, Quinn. 

[Quintessential]

 (Striker) Quinn

I'm not coming back to remove that. I'm tired of arguing with the people I suspect over whether I should suspect them or not, and I'm tired of putting tons of effort into these kinds of analyses and being misexed for them, and I'm tired of this thread being just me and Striker and Araris, and I'm done with this.

And while we're at it, I'm the village roleblocker. I blocked Araris N1 and Striker N3, so if either of you submitted actions those turns, and by some miracle are actually village, then there's your proof of my role at least. N2 I blocked Archer.