Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[Gears]

I hereby swear off infokills. I have never witnessed an instance of them providing the advertised information. I do understand that Danex was genuinely suspicious for the reasons Whysper and I highlighted D1, but I don't believe any of the votes on Danex were because of things they did. Merely the interaction of votes around them. 

Whysper is not incriminated as a result of this. They were simply the main advocate D1 for genuinely suspicious reasoning and as such the counter to the DanX™. Being wrong is not an elim tell. They aren't cleared, mind you. Simply not more suspicious, in my opinion. I would not be willing to X them next cycle, if only because I can see better options. 

There is an individual I must thank. You know who you are. I offer you a gleaming smile and a handful of copper pennies. They taste like blood in your mouth. You are, as always, the light of my life. Searing, blinding, eternal, ever distant, ever burning, ever constant, the node, the focus, the centre, all hail, a҉̸l̸l ̷͢h̨͡a̷̧i̵̸̶l̸, àl̡̡͠l̷̕͢҉ ̢͟͡h̸̷͜a͠i̵̢̛͘͢l̨͘͘͢. Ink drips from the lips of those who were foolish enough to stare into the sun.

To the highprinces: 1. Democracy! for the money, my thanks in advance. 2. Numbers? [My continued line of questioning may raise some counterquestions. In return, I ask only this: How many keteks have you seen? I thought not.]

Sidenote: I shall be quite busy for the next few days before a lovely long weekend, so be warned. And moderately busy for the next two weeks [as it turns out, winning the mathematics competition qualifies me for the regional competition]. And just generally busy for the next few months because AP exams in about a month and the school is in studying fervor. 

Votes last turn. Final votes italicised. Again, colourblind!Gears™, so correct any mistakes.

• Elandera votes Danex because of the info they might provide upon their flip
• Lumi votes Araris for their Illwei vote
• Striker votes Araris for their Illwei vote.
• Araris votes TJ to broaden the PoE and elim reading people they didn't vote for. [I almost missed this vote. All hail the Glorious and Magnificent Game Master [diversifying the "GMGM" acronym, perhaps I should do "GMGMGM" and simply expand it] for noting it.] [This seems like an easy way to avoid taking a side on the DanX™. Vote on someone, stick with it despite new developments in thread, and you'll seem neither overly murderous nor prescient.]
• Whysper votes Striker for "shading" [seemed innocuous to me, possibly meta disparity?], chain of murder
• Quinn retracts Araris and votes Danex because their elim flip will give more info than elim!Araris
• Archer votes Elandera for lack of better options [I don't prefer votes based on knowingly weak reasoning, but this seems normal]
• Whysper retracts Striker and votes Danex because they agree with the flip info
• Striker retracts Araris and votes Danex for their flip
• Archer retracts Elandera and votes Whysper because they disagree with the DanX™ [I don't see why Archer looks suspicious from this. The DanX™ was founded on the principle of the infokill instead of suspicions. Perhaps we should have murdered Araris instead.]
• Danex votes Whysper for ineffective self-pres.
• Taniel votes Whysper for gut and IKYK [dislike this vote's reasoning, but seems in line with standard Taniel]
• Tani votes Danex because they had thought that the individual at hand could have been Elhokar. [Interesting assumption. tanielSuspicion--;]
• TJ votes Elandera for playing up Illwei's "village reads" [which personally seemed like obvious Jokes™, but could be read either way, I suppose]
• TJ retracts Elandera and votes Danex for their flip.
• Ys votes Danex because they "agree with what has been said". [Noted, but they're new.]
• Tani votes Whysper for a brownie [Joke™?]
• Ash tries and fails to vote Whysper for the tie.

[Ashbringer]

57 minutes ago, Gears said:

There is an individual I must thank. You know who you are. I offer you a gleaming smile and a handful of copper pennies.

... you got a PM with Quinn, didn't you.

[StrikerEZ]

I forgot PMs were happening this game sometimes.

....does the PM person wanna open up one for me? I have no preference for who it's with, I just want a PM.

[Ookla of Colors]

8 hours ago, Gears said:

• Tani votes Danex because they had thought that the individual at hand could have been Elhokar. [Interesting assumption. tanielSuspicion--;]

Actually because I thought he might be originally (so didnt want to vote him) but then got new info relating to how the game works (Dalinar doesnt know Elhokar, Dalinar moves a vote, doesnt removes it) and decided he couldnt be Elhokar. And then there was the vote manip and that was sus. (Until he claimed Spokesperson, then it was less certain that he was elim. Then he offered me a BrownieTM and I had to have one.)

Edited March 30, 2021 by Tani
space reduction

[Quintessential]

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also feel like Quinn has been too... happy? Not sure what I've been getting there, or if it is AI at all, but it's something I've noticed.

*blink* I... you're right xD I have no idea why that is... people seem to trust me or be listening to me somewhat at least so maybe it's that?

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... you got a PM with Quinn, didn't you.

Sadly, no ;-; but that's a good idea! PM people should make a PM for me and Gears  

[Random Bystander]

10 hours ago, Archer said:

Randby said ‘convince me’. Noted. I respect the desire not be wrong, but it devalues the public discourse if nothing that was said over two days was enough to make you lean one way or the other.

Hi. Honestly, it's not that the stuff said wasn't enough, it's that I didn't have time to read all of it. I had skimmed through, but I didn't know how much I had missed, and I just wanted to know the reasons behind why people were voting for the people in the first place.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Random Bystander

[Archer]

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Ummm, yeah, you got me. I think the largest difference between this game and LG74 is how much time I spent/am spending behind the scenes. I definitely agree with everything I said in LG74 about this tpoic, although I would also say that I overstated my opinions because a teammate was on the line, and maybe because it gave me a chance to throw shade on you, a potentially major village threat. I've been a bit more reactive this game, which has made it easier to lose sight of playing strategically past the first cycle. But I guess I owe Illwei an apology, not for killing her, but for being a hypocrite as I did it .

I think Tani might be my greatest suspect at this point. I'm not sure I like the vote on Whysper or the timing of the switch to Dannex.

I also feel like Quinn has been too... happy? Not sure what I've been getting there, or if it is AI at all, but it's something I've noticed.

It makes it sound like they're in an abusive relationship, but I've been attributing Quinn's good mood to them not having to lock horns with Illwei anymore this game. 

Here's the thing about Araris. I've been agreeing with them a lot this game. They wanted to diversify the field of suspects, for example, which I support. They also are acting as they normally do in LGs: cast an early vote, then review their stance near rollover and more often than not, stick to their guns and see what happens, especially if their vote won't change things. What was a red flag for me was them saying Dannex was beyond saving, but that they really didn't support their exe. I feel like they could have done more to defend Dannex, either with verbal arguments, or by voting Whysper. Last minute vote movements are common enough that it wasn't a done deal, in my opinion. 

I also expected them to jump on Elandera with me, but in retrospect, it makes sense that they stayed. I was hoping to start something with them other than TJ, who I'm tentatively village reading, but as TJ hadn't had the chance to respond to Araris' vote, he was smart to keep it in play until TJ posted again. By then I had moved on. 

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, in terms of who I might be looking to exe tomorrow, I think I'd be down to go for any of Araris, Elandera, or Whysper. I still trust Archer, though I worry that his defense of Dannex was a ploy to try and get village cred. But he's being reasonable again in his latest post, so I'm village reading him again. 

eeeeeee. Striker keeps doing this thing where I think he thinks I'm going to sus him, so he lays the groundwork to shade me, then walks it back after I post and don't attack him. I'm not sure if it's suspicious  or not. 

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

what

what are you doing 

Philico is going to have some choice words with you at some point

I'm looking forward to what you put in my inevitable death write-up. 

2 hours ago, Random Bystander said:

Hi. Honestly, it's not that the stuff said wasn't enough, it's that I didn't have time to read all of it. I had skimmed through, but I didn't know how much I had missed, and I just wanted to know the reasons behind why people were voting for the people in the first place.

To clarify, I'm aware you have tech troubles and an on-going MR to deal with too. I mainly made that broadside to see if anyone would pre-emptively defend you for it, as an elim teammate might be tempted to do. 

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

eeeeeee. Striker keeps doing this thing where I think he thinks I'm going to sus him, so he lays the groundwork to shade me, then walks it back after I post and don't attack him. I'm not sure if it's suspicious  or not. 

Uhh, that’s not my intent at all. I’m not even trying to eventually shade you, I’m just getting conflicting reads on you between each post.

Anyway, I’ve been thinking about some things. We will hit ExLo at D5 if we don’t hit any elims by then and there’s no assassin kill by then either. The best course of action, if we hit N4 without any elim deaths, is to activate the 50% vote majority event. That way on D5, even though it’s ExLo, elims have to all vote on the same player to get the win. And if we’re all on at rollover, we might be able to sneak in after they hammer and hammer one of them. It’d be close, but that’s our best bet at winning if we reach ExLo at D5.

[Quintessential]

53 minutes ago, Archer said:

It makes it sound like they're in an abusive relationship, but I've been attributing Quinn's good mood to them not having to lock horns with Illwei anymore this game. 

I tried to start saying it wasn't that and was actually something else, but I couldn't... actually... think of anything else. So uh. You may be right : P

[Araris Valerian]

57 minutes ago, Archer said:

What was a red flag for me was them saying Dannex was beyond saving, but that they really didn't support their exe. I feel like they could have done more to defend Dannex, either with verbal arguments, or by voting Whysper. Last minute vote movements are common enough that it wasn't a done deal, in my opinion. 

I was sort of worried we would end up in a situation like we did with Mailliw like last game, where a bunch of people were fixated on him but never were able to actually pull off a grinch. I think last cycle was basically a disaster, but come the end, killing Dannex was at least a good way to reset everything.

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I was sort of worried we would end up in a situation like we did with Mailliw like last game, where a bunch of people were fixated on him but never were able to actually pull off a grinch. I think last cycle was basically a disaster, but come the end, killing Dannex was at least a good way to reset everything.

100% agree with this. If Dannex had kept surviving I would have become totally paranoid that he was an elim and the people keeping him alive were elims, and all of my reads would probably have been built around that... and I would guess I'm not the only one either : P

[forget me not]

Cara had noticed the way people were starting to look at her. Maybe she hadn't been the best at blending in while investigating. She never thought that while she was trying to figure out who's who, so would others.

Ummmm.....................Yeah, I have absolutely zero idea what I'm doing.

I read what everyone is saying and tbh, half of it might as well be in French.

[Random Bystander]

42 minutes ago, forget me not said:

Cara had noticed the way people were starting to look at her. Maybe she hadn't been the best at blending in while investigating. She never thought that while she was trying to figure out who's who, so would others.

Ummmm.....................Yeah, I have absolutely zero idea what I'm doing.

I read what everyone is saying and tbh, half of it might as well be in French.

Thank you! Another person who is completely lost!

[Archer]

 Alright, I’m bad at staying anonymous, and I’m a prime NK candidate. So here’s the deal with the Hp doc.

When we first received it, there were nine HP slots available. We all claimed one, although two have not been touched. I asked the GMs whether if Illwei had survived, there would have been 10, but didn’t get a straight answer. I’m thinking we should assume there has only ever been nine Hps, not ten as I first thought. That means one regular role is doubled up, or there’s a vanilla player. (Sorry if that’s you.)

We unanimously activated a Highstorm N1. Tonight, we were more divided, but it looks like we’re set to trigger Political Vengeance or Financial Crisis, the latter being the current leader. So if you’re thinking of making a purchase, keep that in mind. Fun fact, prices round UP during the half-price sale, which is sad. 7 sphere armour becomes 4 sphere armour etc.

Also, Striker probably isn't a Hp because I stole his colour and he didn't say anything. 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

So if you’re thinking of making a purchase, keep that in mind.

If Financial Crisis is triggered tonight, no one can purchase anything N3. The Events trigger in between the Night and Day cycles, so they always effect the next time. The thread will always be aware of the effects.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Also, Striker probably isn't a Hp because I stole his colour and he didn't say anything. 

I mean, I would think Striker would be smart enough not to object and to pick a color different from his usual, but if you say so...

[Archer]

Mm. I indeed knew both of those things were known. Just to recap, I exposed my role for the sole purpose of telling you that there might be nine Hps, but there might also be ten. 

I don't regret any decisions I have made in the last half hour at all, no sir 

 

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

I don't regret any decisions I have made in the last half hour at all, no sir 

Very believable  

[StrikerEZ]

@Archer any chance of y’all voting for Democracy! instead? Getting items the turn right after players will have the most money (D3 we get two more spheres) makes the most sense to me, personally.

Edited March 30, 2021 by StrikerEZ
I didn’t change anything. I was gonna add something then decided it wasn’t worth it, and hit save instead of cancel. :P

[Quintessential]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

@Archer any chance of y’all voting for Democracy! instead? Getting items the turn right after players will have the most money (D3 we get two more spheres) makes the most sense to me, personally.

I can support this too--we'll all have at least 5 spheres, which is enough to purchase any one item in the shop if the items are at half price (with the obvious exception of the knife, which nobody would be able to purchase even if we waited for the second Highstorm event before triggering Democracy!)

[StrikerEZ]

So, looking back at things, it might actually be a good idea to go ahead and activate Political Vengeance now. I didn't realize it lasts for 2 whole cycles until I just looked back at the rules. Getting that out of the way now actually makes sense. Because we'll be stuck with ties killing everyone that's been tied for D3 and D4. But we definitely need to do Democracy! next, to get some items in the hands of the village. Which I think is good for us, especially if a bunch of players start dying off soon because ties kill everyone.

[Gears]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

 Alright, I’m bad at staying anonymous, and I’m a prime NK candidate. So here’s the deal with the Hp doc.

When we first received it, there were nine HP slots available. We all claimed one, although two have not been touched. I asked the GMs whether if Illwei had survived, there would have been 10, but didn’t get a straight answer. I’m thinking we should assume there has only ever been nine Hps, not ten as I first thought. That means one regular role is doubled up, or there’s a vanilla player. (Sorry if that’s you.)

We unanimously activated a Highstorm N1. Tonight, we were more divided, but it looks like we’re set to trigger Political Vengeance or Financial Crisis, the latter being the current leader. So if you’re thinking of making a purchase, keep that in mind. Fun fact, prices round UP during the half-price sale, which is sad. 7 sphere armour becomes 4 sphere armour etc.

Also, Striker probably isn't a Hp because I stole his colour and he didn't say anything. 

Archer is dead, an elim, or IKYK paranoia fodder. No armor this early, so if they're attacked, they're dead since they probably aren't Elhokar given the claim. Au revoir, Archer, until we meet again. Contention: If a vanilla dies, then Archer was probably discarded. Vanillas operate at a higher priority than powerful roles.

I would consider nine rather than ten because Mateo told us that there would be <10 highprinces. Plausibly a vanilla as a shield for Elhokar and Sadeas's scan. [To the vanilla, whomever you might be: Fair fortune, for you are to be Elhokar's extra life. They will strike you down as soon as they find you.] 

Highprinces: I recommend Political Vengeance. Murderous ties are distinctly unhelpful in the late-game. Follow the order I proposed.

Trust nothing. No behavior is constant, particularly when anonymity is to be maintained. 

[Quintessential]

22 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

So, looking back at things, it might actually be a good idea to go ahead and activate Political Vengeance now. I didn't realize it lasts for 2 whole cycles until I just looked back at the rules. Getting that out of the way now actually makes sense. Because we'll be stuck with ties killing everyone that's been tied for D3 and D4. But we definitely need to do Democracy! next, to get some items in the hands of the village. Which I think is good for us, especially if a bunch of players start dying off soon because ties kill everyone.

16 minutes ago, Gears said:

Highprinces: I recommend Political Vengeance. Murderous ties are distinctly unhelpful in the late-game. Follow the order I proposed.

Or we could do that  

I'd actually suggest doing Democracy! next Night (N3) in that case, and then moving the Highstorm to the Night after Crisis. Doing Democracy! before the second Highstorm event doesn't change what people will be able to buy during Democracy!, and two more people (realistically both villagers) will be able to purchase items than would be able to if we waited another cycle. That would make the new order:

Highstorm (N1), Vengeance (N2), Democracy! (N3), Crisis (N4), Highstorm (N5), Anarchy (N6)

with the last three potentially being adjusted for specific circumstances.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Quintessential

[StrikerEZ]

@Quintessential I wasn’t advocating for the Highstorm event to be done tonight. Just reminding everyone there’s a natural Highstorm coming up.

[Quintessential]

7 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Quintessential I wasn’t advocating for the Highstorm event to be done tonight. Just reminding everyone there’s a natural Highstorm coming up.

Oh, no, that bit was in response to Gears. His original order was

Highstorm, Vengeance, Highstorm, Democracy!, Crisis, Anarchy.

I'm suggesting we do

Highstorm, Vengeance, Democracy!, Crisis, Highstorm, Anarchy.

instead.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Quintessential