Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[Ookla of Colors]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

This is a direct contradiction to Archer's statement that no one seems to be defending Dannex. The only people I recall who have stated hesitations are Archer, you, and Dannex (understandably). 

ok. I used to have misgiving about a Dannexe but have now changed my mind and am indifferent.  

[Quintessential]

Just now, Tani said:

ok. I used to have misgiving about a Dannexe but have now changed my mind and am indifferent.  

What was the misgiving? And what changed your mind?

[StrikerEZ]

• Dannex (4): Elandera, Quintessential, Whysper, StrikerEZ
• TJ Shade (1): Araris Valerian
• Whysper (3): Archer, Dannex, Tani

So, we've only got 8 votes so far, out of 14 players, and the turn ends in less then 7 hours. @Gears @Random Bystander @Ashbringer @Flyingbooks @forget me not @TJ Shade Do you guys have any thoughts on the exe options right now? Anyone else you'd want to exe over Dannex or Whysper?

[Ookla of Colors]

Just now, Quintessential said:

What was the misgiving? And what changed your mind?

In all honesty?

I thought he might be Elhokar.

Then Mat said Dalinar didnt know Elhokar (and I went back and saw that Dalinar moves a vote, not removes it) and I realized it couldnt have been Dalinar protecting Elhokar like I thought it coulda been.

However it could still be an IKYK that Im not gonna tell you because then it would pop up much more.

So I think Dannex.

Also @Highprinces weren't yous gonna tell us how many of yous there are?

[Random Bystander]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

• Dannex (4): Elandera, Quintessential, Whysper, StrikerEZ
• TJ Shade (1): Araris Valerian
• Whysper (3): Archer, Dannex, Tani

So, we've only got 8 votes so far, out of 14 players, and the turn ends in less then 7 hours. @Gears @Random Bystander @Ashbringer @Flyingbooks @forget me not @TJ Shade Do you guys have any thoughts on the exe options right now? Anyone else you'd want to exe over Dannex or Whysper?

I don't know. If anyone has good reasons for me to vote for someone, you can try to convince me I guess. I'll listen to logic. I won't listen to gut feelings, though.

[Ashbringer]

... I forgot to follow the thread.

In class right now but I'll post something in an hour or two.

[|TJ|]

Okay so I gave glanced through the posts and caught up.

Some thoughts:

I saw Striker saying ties are good because it forces elim to do something and vote manips can give us info. I disagree with this in the sense that, any info that comes out of the tie vote is not exactly helpful to the village, because then we get locked in discussion of the person who survived and they're gonna hog up the discussion. That sometimes leads to a unanimous one train elimination of the survivor so that cycle doesn't give that much info. Vote manip is always NAI because we always say (and this happens in every single game) "oh they could be elim protecting elim or well it also could be elim framing village" so all it creates it IKYK. Just getting my two cents on the topic out. I'm in fact reading Striker as village.

Agreeing a lot with both Quinn and Striker, to be honest. Felt exactly how Striker felt about Whysper. And agreed with them on Araris and Elandera. 

Araris: When I say I agree with the read on Araris, my initial thoughts were like that. But I started thinking more and that lead to deviation from the reads given by Striker and Quinn. Elim!Araris Stab votes are always always on a villager (if someone recalls different do tell me, I've been trying to remember) and elim!Araris is always content with with his stab votes if someone else votes along with him (look "I stab voted but someone else joined me so I found no reason to change the vote). Analogous to how Araris did not shift off Reading when Illwei was up for elimination in LG74. Did someone ( @Quintessential :P) note the vote count when Araris shifted the vote? If I recall, Archer already had 3 votes, and Illwei had lesser? when he shifted from Araris to Illwei, so I don't know why he would shift there (unless along with a teammate). However, on the other hand, I do remember elim!Araris did change from the initial stab vote on... *checks LG67 sheet* Ventyl (and later Devo) and voted on me to try and save teammate Striker. So there's the other end of the argument as well. But point remains that if Archer had 3 votes at the time of shifting his vote, then I don't see why elim!Araris would shift. @Araris Valerian, what behavior Illwei's did you find similar to LG74? Don't think you answered this. My read on you will probably depend on the answer (and after going back and checking the vote count at the time of switching). If Dannex is evil, possibly evil with Elandera.

Whysper: As I said, found my thoughts exactly similar to Strikers. I did find Whysper's response to him a bit odd (couldn't point it out), but then I just realised Whysper hasn't ever been under suspicion on here, has she? I don't think I ever remember her having to defend herself, so that maybe it. One of the points I'm reading her as village is because of the reasoning she gave for the suspicion on Dannex (shading misunderstandings) is exactly why I gut read Dannex as elim.

Elandera: Other than her vote, I think she definitely played up how Illwei gave village reads. She said along the lines of "it was suspicious that Illwei have too many village reads too quickly" whereas it was only Araris, and Archer?

Archer: Was reading Archer village in the beginning but as I caught up, he felt more and more like QF49 Archer hmmmm.

Book: Probably my strongest elim read. There's something realllly off about them. The best I can explain is that they seem too eager to help about mechanics and rules to appear villagery, but have not actually given an reads and thoughts on players or the situation of the game. (Voting for Elandera because no one seems to be feeling the same about them)

Gears: I remember something tiny nagging me from before when I was caught up with D1 during D1, but I can't find what it was.

Quinn: Village, but sorta feels like how I village read her in MR47 in the beginning before recalibrating my read. Moderate but wary village.

Dannex: He said that he wasn't around for EoD to self pres, but the point remains that he did vote on Tani when it was 4-4, so if he knew he wasn't gonna be on later, why no self pres? My suspicion on Dannex was off a single line that Whysper mentioned. Infokill is necessary because there's zero indication of v!Dannex, but infokill cycles are not so much informative about the voters because everyone argues for an info kill and reasoning for the vote becomes NAI.

RandBy: My vote on RandBy was pure CC. We always manage to vote out very active players early and that's not optimal, so the vote was an activity push. Hence, I tried conversing more after her initial reply, but to no avail. I meant to change it but I zoned out of the game.

Ashbringer: Need to see more. As many argued - v!Dannex is NAI for Ash whereas e!Dannex is strong village for Ash.

FMN: @forget me not, which of your teammate/s asked you to vote for Illwei? xD Okay more seriously, can you explain in some way why Illwei felt off to you?

Striker: Posts seem village as I agree with him on more than one occasion. Action-wise the whole wanting a tie, breaking a tie, wanting a tie again makes sense only in a case where elim!Striker decides to bus teammate Dannex, then changed his mind... But...why would he break a tie to bus? Massive village cred at the cost of a team D1? I don't think so. And again, depending on Dannex flip. 

Tani: I'm not sure. Village cases say an elim would not advocate for no-vote D1 but while that maybe true... I don't know. Unsure.

Rollover is at 5:30 am for me so this might be my last post for the cycle, I may come back in a couple of hours if I'm awake.

Edit: Just saw all the ninjas. I do prefer to vote out Dannex over Whysper because... (I gotta go back and check other's reason) while Whysper did seem odd in that defence post, I don't know think that's enough of an elim indicative and at this point Dannex death gives us more information. I prefer Books and Elandera over the info kill though.

Edited March 29, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Quintessential]

7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Did someone ( @Quintessential :P) note the vote count when Araris shifted the vote?

The VC was 

Illwei (3): Archer, Forge, Quinn
Archer (2): Araris, Striker
Randby (1): TJ
Tani (1): Elan
Dannex (3): Whysper, Illwei, Tani

right before Araris switched to Illwei.

 

[|TJ|]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

The VC was 

Illwei (3): Archer, Forge, Quinn
Archer (2): Araris, Striker
Randby (1): TJ
Tani (1): Elan
Dannex (3): Whysper, Illwei, Tani

right before Araris switched to Illwei.

Hmmmmmyeah that's sus. Gonna wait to see if someone wants to vote for Elan/Books though it doesn't seem like it >>

[StrikerEZ]

I don’t feel enough of anything either way for Book to decide if I wanna go for them, and Elan is just a mild gut read for me, while I feel like there’s a bit more info we could gain from Dannex’s flip either way. Like, elim!Dannex obviously gives elim points to Araris and Elan and village points to Ash. And while village!Dannex doesn’t clear Araris or Elan or implicate Ash, we do know that the line of reasoning we’ve been following is off, so we can look elsewhere for suspicions.

[+Whysper]

17 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Elandera: Other than her vote, I think she definitely played up how Illwei gave village reads. She said along the lines of "it was suspicious that Illwei have too many village reads too quickly" whereas it was only Araris, and Archer?

17 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Book: Probably my strongest elim read. There's something realllly off about them. The best I can explain is that they seem too eager to help about mechanics and rules to appear villagery, but have not actually given an reads and thoughts on players or the situation of the game. (Voting for Elandera because no one seems to be feeling the same about them)

17 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I prefer Books and Elandera over the info kill though.

I was a bit surprised to see Books and Elandera as your top Elim reads. Well, maybe not so much for Elandera since I think one or two others voiced suspicion of her. Books I've kind of had as null because I hadn't seen much from him, but I think I'll need to go back and review his posts in isolation to see if I missed something there.

BTW, I probably won't make it back before EoD. Maybe I'll be able to check the thread quickly but probably won't have a chance to post.

[Araris Valerian]

25 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Araris Valerian, what behavior Illwei's did you find similar to LG74? Don't think you answered this.

It was really just the village read on me, I think. The behavior I'm thinking of is Illwei sort of bludgeoning people with her playstyle D1 to deflect suspicion off herself. I saw the village read on me as somewhat similar; a way to try and pocket me with no justification other than being kinda chaotic. 

I think I'm decently against a Dannex grinch this cycle. I'd vote on Dannex over Archer for sure, but probably not most other options. The point being that I think the kill last night suggests we need to broaden our scope, and focusing Dannex doesn't help with that.

[Quintessential]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

It was really just the village read on me, I think.

You were elim in LG74. I'm pretty sure any interactions you had with Illwei in that game would only be comparable to interactions here if you were both elim here : P

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'd vote on Dannex over Archer for sure, but probably not most other options.

Since when is Archer an alternative to Dannex this cycle?

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The point being that I think the kill last night suggests we need to broaden our scope, and focusing Dannex doesn't help with that.

>> I mean, the kill last night makes me think of either you or Archer (Archer because he specifically brought up that he'd be someone who'd do that, when I actually wouldn't think of him for it at all).

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Quintessential said:

Since when is Archer an alternative to Dannex this cycle?

That probably wasn't helpful to include in the post. I was trying to get across the idea that Dannex isn't really a village read, just not a priority target for me.

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

You were elim in LG74. I'm pretty sure any interactions you had with Illwei in that game would only be comparable to interactions here if you were both elim here : P

While I acknowledge that my reasoning for voting on Illwei was weak, you are misinterpreting me here. I was looking at how Illwei interacted with certain villagers in LG74 and thought I could see a parallel to her interaction with me. Obviously I was wrong (or at least the connection I saw was not AI), but that's what I had D1 and I don't really regret it.

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

>> I mean, the kill last night makes me think of either you or Archer (Archer because he specifically brought up that he'd be someone who'd do that, when I actually wouldn't think of him for it at all).

Yeah, the kill profile here pretty much fits me like a glove. But maybe I just play SE in the most perfectly optimal way and someone else has caught onto my strategy?

[Quintessential]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

That probably wasn't helpful to include in the post. I was trying to get across the idea that Dannex isn't really a village read, just not a priority target for me.

While I acknowledge that my reasoning for voting on Illwei was weak, you are misinterpreting me here. I was looking at how Illwei interacted with certain villagers in LG74 and thought I could see a parallel to her interaction with me. Obviously I was wrong (or at least the connection I saw was not AI), but that's what I had D1 and I don't really regret it.

Ah, okay that makes more sense  (though I will say that Illwei does that as village too)

[Elandera]

34 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Elandera: Other than her vote, I think she definitely played up how Illwei gave village reads. She said along the lines of "it was suspicious that Illwei have too many village reads too quickly" whereas it was only Araris, and Archer?

It could just be my old lady playstyle doesn't mesh well with the seeming new meta, but anyone who expresses adamant trust (village reads) of anyone else D1 will always set off my gut read. I think there was a third village read, but I don't remember who. On top of that, it seemed (to me) not to be the normal "instinct tells me they're probably village" but conveyed as a "they're definitely village." Like Araris, that seems like pocketing to me. Blunt as Mjolnir, but pocketing.

[+Whysper]

2 minutes ago, Elandera said:

It could just be my old lady playstyle doesn't mesh well with the seeming new meta, but anyone who expresses adamant trust (village reads) of anyone else D1 will always set off my gut read. I think there was a third village read, but I don't remember who. On top of that, it seemed (to me) not to be the normal "instinct tells me they're probably village" but conveyed as a "they're definitely village." Like Araris, that seems like pocketing to me. Blunt as Mjolnir, but pocketing.

Oh man, this bothers me too. They do this a lot on my home site, and usually for certain players. There are certain players that get slapped with a Village read almost instantly, like the moment they make their first post. People seem to be confident that they have an accurate meta read of them. But I think it's really just that always giving someone a Village read will be correct around 75% of the time just based on the chance of rolling Villager. So after a few games of doing this, they feel like they've gotten it mostly correct.  

[|TJ|]

Bout to sleep so Dannex

Elandera

[danex]

inb4 I flip village and everyone realizes this was a bad choice for an infokill

my vc has only gone up so guess I’ll say that I am in fact the Village Spokesperson

[forget me not]

So I just skimmed through this, and I might have missed something important..........Hopefully not. 

On 3/27/2021 at 7:26 PM, Tani said:

@forget me not Which nicknames did you choose?

Forge works (:

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

FMN: @forget me not, which of your teammate/s asked you to vote for Illwei? xD Okay more seriously, can you explain in some way why Illwei felt off to you?

I guess that's just how I felt. I haven't ever done this before so I am not really sure what is suspicious and what is not. It was just a guess with the limited Day One info. It was wrong.

I also agree with what has been said about Dannex.

[danex]

6 minutes ago, forget me not said:

I also agree with what has been said about Dannex.

Which parts?

[Ashbringer]

Is it 7 (or 6 from Spokes) votes on Dannex, 3 on Whysper? It's hard to follow vote counts when there's a lot of D1 counts...

 

Since I was asked how I feel about TJ... not much to go off of but that big post feels very TJ-ish. It also feels sort of like Archer... maybe that's just because I'm used to him doing the big posts. So I'll lean Village on him (as much as one can for his post level), because I think I know what TJ feels like and how that was different with Elim!TJ in the Dragons QF.

[+Whysper]

2 hours ago, Dannex said:

my vc has only gone up so guess I’ll say that I am in fact the Village Spokesperson

Ummm wait, are you claiming that you used vote manipulation to move a vote off yourself but didn't vote Illwei directly to self-pres?? Didn't you also say you weren't on at the end of the day? Or did you not use your vote manipulation and all that was done by someone else?

[danex]

33 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Ummm wait, are you claiming that you used vote manipulation to move a vote off yourself but didn't vote Illwei directly to self-pres?? Didn't you also say you weren't on at the end of the day? Or did you not use your vote manipulation and all that was done by someone else?

I used my vote manip early on in the cycle when it seemed like I was getting some votes

and then later I voted for Tani instead of self pres because I knew I was fine and didn’t need to. And I thought Illwei was vil. 

[Quintessential]

42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Is it 7 (or 6 from Spokes) votes on Dannex, 3 on Whysper? It's hard to follow vote counts when there's a lot of D1 counts...

VC (not counting vote manip):

Dannex (7): Elan, Quinn, Whysper, Striker, Tani, TJ, Forge
TJ (1): Araris
Whysper (2): Archer, Dannex