Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[+Whysper]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Quinn has been dying a lot recently. Striker too. I was hit early in the last two MRs. And so on. Maybe they just said let's be nice and switch it up.

Ahhh yes, maybe that's all it is. Them being nice. I remember playing a game where Gears was killed N1 and people just thinking how mean that was since he'd been killed a lot in recent times before that.  

[Random Bystander]

9 minutes ago, Archer said:

I made the list with everyone but myself in it, then switched out the NK with my own name. Otherwise, everyone kind of got paired up with people who have similar playstyles or engagement levels, hoping that like can read like. 

Randby tends to play a low profile game. Normally I wouldn't crusade against that too much, but just for some contraversy... in the MR game they were elim in, they basically said in the elim doc, I'll avoid attention by not voting or saying too much. That's strategy worked. What's the difference between your behaviour in the MR and in this game, @Random Bystander? 

To clarify, I am surprised TUO was targeted. It's unusual for this website for someone with their profile to be hit early. They are alive in the ongoing MR, so maybe that's the reason? It wasn't a fear kill anyway, so we can guess there's an experienced Elim in the group calming things down. 

Edit: TUO you're a fun player to have around, please don't think I'm devaluing your contributions. 

Quinn has been dying a lot recently. Striker too. I was hit early in the last two MRs. And so on. Maybe they just said let's be nice and switch it up. 

*sighs* I'll be more active after tomorrow. My internet is having issues, and someone will be in to fix it tomorrow. Besides, look at all the other games I've been in. I'm generally not the most active person...

[Quivil]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Tani what do you think about Quinn?

Currently slight village read... I think she's acting the same way she did in LG74 and MR49(yes this game is still going but she dead in it)

---------------------------------------------

1 hour ago, Flyingbooks said:

They've mostly been RPing and hasn't contributed much, but that isn't uncommon for a new player. I'm reading them as slight village because elim!FMN might have been advised by their teammates to keep a lower profile or use their newness more. I'm definitely opposed to exeing them.

Lucky FMN. She has a brother in SE to ask all her questions to.

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Tani said:

Lucky FMN. She has a brother in SE to ask all her questions to.

Can confirm  Don't worry, though, I'm being properly impartial.

[Quivil]

@forget me not Which nicknames did you choose?

[+Whysper]

Oh, I just realized. There wasn't a 2nd NK for the Assassin. I wonder if they forgot to submit their action.

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Striker what do you think about Whysper?

I think they've been reasonable so far, but like...the sort of reasonableness where I could see an elim being in her position. Like...saying things that make sense and staying somewhat at the edge of the game almost? I think that's a good way to describe it. They could also be village, but I'm leaning slight elim. Not enough for me to want to vote them today, just something I'm going to keep in mind as the game goes on.

1 hour ago, Whysper said:

I'm leaning him Villager. Though I'm still confused about what he was doing with the insistence on tying the votes earlier then later going against that himself. I think he argued that it made more sense earlier in the day and not later, but I still don't get that. But as far as alignment, I really don't think the Elims would even try doing anything like suggesting to tie the vote, so this comes off as a Villager suggestion that's just confusing.  

Step 1: Suggest tying the vote as an elim player.
Step 2: Pocket Whysper because she thinks that an elim wouldn't do that.
Step 3: ???
Step 4: Profit.

Seriously though, I don't understand why you think an elim wouldn't suggest tying the vote? 

1 hour ago, Whysper said:

Hmm yeah, I don't think TUO really even talked much, so not sure why they bothered killing them. I thought Elims usually kept around the null slots as potential MLs for later. But you might be right about it simply being to keep from revealing anything with another kill.

I mean, I think the general trend lately, at least from what I've seen, has been to kill players that will give low info on who the elims might be or kill players who are a threat to the elim team (because of their role or whatever other reasoning the elims might have for thinking they're a threat). And occasionally killing players who are so collectively read as village that there's no chance of them getting exed anyway. For what it's worth, this feels a bit of like...a way to talk about your thoughts on why the kill might've been made while actually knowing why the kill was made.

Also, Araris. Everything with his vote on Illwei and the timing of that vote just felt off to me. I'd like to see what his alignment is before we see anyone else's. If he's an elim, then I'd say we take a look at Dannex again. I will say that I do think Dannex is an okay exe target for today, I'd just prefer Araris over Dannex. If Araris is an elim, then Dannex very well could be an elim, and then Ash would probably be one. 

Also also, before anyone calls me out on this: I know this post talks more about Whysper than it does Araris. I was always planning on voting for him, I just felt the need to comment on some things related to Whysper first. 

Also also also, I recommend that the Highprinces vote for Democracy! next. I asked Mat about it, and if they vote for that N2, then the marketplace N3 will have the half price items, which will be after everyone's got the extra 2 spheres from the natural Highstorm.

1 minute ago, Whysper said:

Oh, I just realized. There wasn't a 2nd NK for the Assassin. I wonder if they forgot to submit their action.

Glad I hadn't posted this yet. The assassin gets one NK per game. They're probably waiting to use it at the right moment, which is fair, for a one shot NK.

[+Whysper]

I'm finishing up brunch now. I'll try to get back later today to reply to that longer post. Couple areas I have something to say about.

[Gears]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Gears what do you think about Araris?

I dislike the notion of a black-box plan obscuring reasoning for actions, and the vote at the end was a bit concerning. I would be amenable to their death, but not strongly. They do not seem especially different from what I have seen from them in the past. Danex remains stabworthy. I should do analysis, but I just got back from a mathematics competition [I won!], and I'm tired. 

Concerning the Order kill: I can see two motivations. 1. Low-info kill/trying to murder people who wouldn't be X-ed. 2. Murdering highprinces. I find the former more likely than the latter because I do not think that Order has a particlarly unique manner of speaking that would be easily discernable than the latter. Unless Order claimed in the highprince doc. That is indeed a possibility that I shall not discount. Would any daring highprinces like to tell us if this is so and how many highprinces there are?

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

In answer to your actual question, he seems normal to me. High-effort play, but that's normal for him. I'm reading him slight village right now I think but tbh I never have any idea how to read Gears.

Considering that I've been floating by in a low-effort mindset, I shall consider this a compliment. 

51 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, Araris. Everything with his vote on Illwei and the timing of that vote just felt off to me. I'd like to see what his alignment is before we see anyone else's. If he's an elim, then I'd say we take a look at Dannex again. I will say that I do think Dannex is an okay exe target for today, I'd just prefer Araris over Dannex. If Araris is an elim, then Dannex very well could be an elim, and then Ash would probably be one. 

I swear I wrote my post before you posted. I just had to leave in the middle. This agreement is coincidence and not intentional. It concerns me.

[StrikerEZ]

2 minutes ago, Gears said:

I swear I wrote my post before you posted. I just had to leave in the middle. This agreement is coincidence and not intentional. It concerns me.

Why's it concern you?

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Araris what do you think about Tani?

Pretty solid village right now. I think it's an unnecessary risk for an elim to oppose a D1 grinch. I could be wrong here, but Tani is not a priority target for sure.

I'd also like to say that I've done a complete about face and think Archer is most definitely village as well. I can't for the life of me find what he said that changed my mind, but it made Night!Me think that he isn't elim (found it. the question about money). The question thing this cycle seems a little contrived, but it is a good way to spark discussion, which is ultimately helpful to us.

35 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also also, before anyone calls me out on this: I know this post talks more about Whysper than it does Araris. I was always planning on voting for him, I just felt the need to comment on some things related to Whysper first. 

This bring to mind a certain LG where a certain foolish person wrote a post about TUO and then voted on you . But I was village that game, so maybe village!Striker thinks like village!Araris.

I stand by my vote on Illwei last cycle, which while apparently misguided, was still a D1 vote, and as it turns out I'm glad I didn't stay on Archer. It was also part of the Plan(TM), and thus was determined prior to the start of the game, so it follows that the vote cannot be AI to begin with.

Respond to comments in thread. Check. Proceed to next step of plan.

The elim kill does seems to show that elims are happy with the thread's status. That suggests to me that we should broaden the POE, and I'm thinking of Gears, Ash, and TJ right now. TJ gave elim reads on Dannex and Books (while voting for Randby). Gears casually defended me. Nothing much from Ash at all (for ILR reasons, it seems). These players all seem to fit with the kill profile while also lying a bit lower than they otherwise might. My vote is on TJ for now, but I'd like to hear from all of the above three players.

I got ninja'd by Gears while writing this, but that doesn't change much. Nothing in his post that changes my mind, the whole thing is rather non-commmital (congrats on the math contest though! IRL me approves ).

Next step, wait.

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'd also like to say that I've done a complete about face and think Archer is most definitely village as well. I can't for the life of me find what he said that changed my mind, but it made Night!Me think that he isn't elim (found it. the question about money). The question thing this cycle seems a little contrived, but it is a good way to spark discussion, which is ultimately helpful to us.

I will say that I agree with this basically. I don't know if it was the question about money that did it for me, but N1!Archer felt a lot more like a villager to me than he did D1. And I agree that the questions was a good idea. Getting discussion going, no matter how it happens, is beneficial for the village. 

36 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This bring to mind a certain LG where a certain foolish person wrote a post about TUO and then voted on you . But I was village that game, so maybe village!Striker thinks like village!Araris.

That's kind of why I made that disclaimer, because I remembered what happened to you in LG73.

[+Whysper]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think they've been reasonable so far, but like...the sort of reasonableness where I could see an elim being in her position. Like...saying things that make sense and staying somewhat at the edge of the game almost? I think that's a good way to describe it. They could also be village, but I'm leaning slight elim. Not enough for me to want to vote them today, just something I'm going to keep in mind as the game goes on.

Okay, this has got to be one of the most insidious forms of shade I've seen. Usually when I've seen people shade, it's for a more specific action or thing that's been said. Like where Dannex was saying the misunderstandings could be Elim handiwork. However, Striker's comment is basically crafted in a way to discredit anything I say for the rest of the game. It's like, if I say anything that sounds reasonable, then I'm just an Elim staying on the edge of reasonableness (that reminds me of that Tom Cruise movie Edge of Oblivion or something like that ). Then of course if I were to say anything unreasonable, then people aren't going to take much stock in it anyway. So basically don't listen to anything from me. Oh, there might be some perfect Goldilocks level of reasonableness or interactions that Striker would say is just right for me to have. But then with this kind of game, people are always leaning towards suspicions.

It reminds me of a game I played where I was tunneled the whole game through. I had been discussing thoughts with someone and expressed something about keeping an open mind. And I think I said something about keeping an eye out for deep wolf possibilities because that had happened in the game I played right before that. Well, one player in the town core just railed on me for that. She was saying that I was pushing an agenda for seeking a deep wolf. And that my open-mindedness was somehow anti-town behavior and I'm trying to get people to not listen to the town core. Oh man, it was ridiculous.  

So yeah, not liking what Striker is trying to do here. And if it was just this, then maybe I could just see it as a Villager with crazy expectations like in that other game I played. But then there's the chain of executions that he's trying to set up in the same post.

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, Araris. Everything with his vote on Illwei and the timing of that vote just felt off to me. I'd like to see what his alignment is before we see anyone else's. If he's an elim, then I'd say we take a look at Dannex again. I will say that I do think Dannex is an okay exe target for today, I'd just prefer Araris over Dannex. If Araris is an elim, then Dannex very well could be an elim, and then Ash would probably be one.

So he's got a chain going here: Araris => Dannex => Ash

So like he wants to focus on Araris today. Says that if Araris is Elim, then Dannex probably is also. Yet he hedges by saying he thinks Dannex is an okay exe today, which means that even if Araris is Villager, he'd still keep Dannex in the PoE and probably go after him next day. Then what's up with saying that if Dannex is Elim, then Ash would probably be one, too? I think everyone has been agreeing that Ash's tie vote on Dannex makes him likely Villager. With the degree based on whether Dannex is Elim or not. So like if Dannex is Elim, then Ash is most certainly not Elim.

BTW, not saying that I've cleared Dannex from the PoE. I had voted him yesterday and do still consider him within the PoE. I'm just pointing out this chain Striker has going. Dannex could very well still be Elim within this and Striker is just pre-bussing him. Preparing to get some nice Villager cred. Then maybe use this to try getting us to exe Ash next.

Anyway, going to drop my vote on Striker for now. He's gone to looking worse than Dannex.

StrikerEZ

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Seriously though, I don't understand why you think an elim wouldn't suggest tying the vote?

Oh, scanned back through Striker's post to see if I missed anything. Saw this and probably should go ahead and reply to this also. In general, I feel Elims avoid getting too involved in the votes because people tend to look closely at them after-the-fact. So something like suggesting to tie the vote seems to draw unnecessary attention for no purpose. So that was my original thinking. But yeah, I guess an Elim could still do this to look like a Villager. An Elim that's comfortable enough might do anything like this. So I guess you've talked me into discounting this as Villager AI for you.  

[StrikerEZ]

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Okay, this has got to be one of the most insidious forms of shade I've seen. Usually when I've seen people shade, it's for a more specific action or thing that's been said. Like where Dannex was saying the misunderstandings could be Elim handiwork. However, Striker's comment is basically crafted in a way to discredit anything I say for the rest of the game. It's like, if I say anything that sounds reasonable, then I'm just an Elim staying on the edge of reasonableness (that reminds me of that Tom Cruise movie Edge of Oblivion or something like that ). Then of course if I were to say anything unreasonable, then people aren't going to take much stock in it anyway. So basically don't listen to anything from me. Oh, there might be some perfect Goldilocks level of reasonableness or interactions that Striker would say is just right for me to have. But then with this kind of game, people are always leaning towards suspicions.

It reminds me of a game I played where I was tunneled the whole game through. I had been discussing thoughts with someone and expressed something about keeping an open mind. And I think I said something about keeping an eye out for deep wolf possibilities because that had happened in the game I played right before that. Well, one player in the town core just railed on me for that. She was saying that I was pushing an agenda for seeking a deep wolf. And that my open-mindedness was somehow anti-town behavior and I'm trying to get people to not listen to the town core. Oh man, it was ridiculous.  

So yeah, not liking what Striker is trying to do here. And if it was just this, then maybe I could just see it as a Villager with crazy expectations like in that other game I played. But then there's the chain of executions that he's trying to set up in the same post.

I mean...tbh, I wasn't trying to shade you at all, really. I was struggling to remember what you'd done in the game up to that point, and what I could remember was you saying mostly reasonable things (though not what those things actually were), and mostly staying out of the spotlight. Which I was just saying was like, a good place to be as an elim. And my read on you was more because I wanted to give some sort of read. I did say it was just slight elim, and also said you could just be a villager making good points. And the elim read was meant to be more of a thing where, if we go further into the game and don't have many leads, I'd be down for taking a closer look at you. I'm not trying to stop you from making reasonable points or being unable to change up how you're playing at a later point in the game. Hecc, I've changed up how I've played a lot in just the few days that this game's been going. I was all for a tie, then I was voting Dannex, then I decided to tie it again at the last minute. 

I do want to apologize if it felt like I was shading you a whole bunch. I'm sorry.

8 minutes ago, Whysper said:

So he's got a chain going here: Araris => Dannex => Ash

So like he wants to focus on Araris today. Says that if Araris is Elim, then Dannex probably is also. Yet he hedges by saying he thinks Dannex is an okay exe today, which means that even if Araris is Villager, he'd still keep Dannex in the PoE and probably go after him next day. Then what's up with saying that if Dannex is Elim, then Ash would probably be one, too? I think everyone has been agreeing that Ash's tie vote on Dannex makes him likely Villager. With the degree based on whether Dannex is Elim or not. So like if Dannex is Elim, then Ash is most certainly not Elim.

BTW, not saying that I've cleared Dannex from the PoE. I had voted him yesterday and do still consider him within the PoE. I'm just pointing out this chain Striker has going. Dannex could very well still be Elim within this and Striker is just pre-bussing him. Preparing to get some nice Villager cred. Then maybe use this to try getting us to exe Ash next.

Anyway, going to drop my vote on Striker for now. He's gone to looking worse than Dannex.

StrikerEZ

Well...first off, I think you've either misunderstood that part of my post or I was just unclear. First off, I'm not actually trying to set up exes on Araris, then Dannex, then Ash. I'm saying that I have a village read on Ash right now, and elim reads for Araris and Dannex. And if Dannex flips village, then my village read for Ash diminishes a bit because then he could be an elim who was just voting for a player to die to cause chaos. If either of Araris or Dannex flips village today, I will advocate for keeping the other alive, at least for now. If Dannex flips village, I'm not going to advocate for exing Ash. Just because I think elim!Dannex could mean village!Ash doesn't mean I think village!Dannex for sure means elim!Ash. If that makes sense. As of right now, I don't want to exe Ash at all because I think he's more likely village than not. If any of this doesn't make sense, just let me know and I'll try to clarify it again.

13 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Oh, scanned back through Striker's post to see if I missed anything. Saw this and probably should go ahead and reply to this also. In general, I feel Elims avoid getting too involved in the votes because people tend to look closely at them after-the-fact. So something like suggesting to tie the vote seems to draw unnecessary attention for no purpose. So that was my original thinking. But yeah, I guess an Elim could still do this to look like a Villager. An Elim that's comfortable enough might do anything like this. So I guess you've talked me into discounting this as Villager AI for you.  

...task failed successfully?

[+Whysper]

6 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean...tbh, I wasn't trying to shade you at all, really. I was struggling to remember what you'd done in the game up to that point, and what I could remember was you saying mostly reasonable things (though not what those things actually were), and mostly staying out of the spotlight. Which I was just saying was like, a good place to be as an elim. And my read on you was more because I wanted to give some sort of read. I did say it was just slight elim, and also said you could just be a villager making good points. And the elim read was meant to be more of a thing where, if we go further into the game and don't have many leads, I'd be down for taking a closer look at you. I'm not trying to stop you from making reasonable points or being unable to change up how you're playing at a later point in the game. Hecc, I've changed up how I've played a lot in just the few days that this game's been going. I was all for a tie, then I was voting Dannex, then I decided to tie it again at the last minute. 

I do want to apologize if it felt like I was shading you a whole bunch. I'm sorry.

Hmm okay, perhaps I got a bit too sensitive on this. Your apology makes me feed bad about how I took it.  It's just that I've had stuff like this happen before and know I need to react to it before tunneling starts to occur. It's frustrating to have to deal with that the whole game through and pretty much have no way to counteract it because everything I say anymore just gets twisted to fit the initial impression that was put forth.

6 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well...first off, I think you've either misunderstood that part of my post or I was just unclear. First off, I'm not actually trying to set up exes on Araris, then Dannex, then Ash. I'm saying that I have a village read on Ash right now, and elim reads for Araris and Dannex. And if Dannex flips village, then my village read for Ash diminishes a bit because then he could be an elim who was just voting for a player to die to cause chaos. If either of Araris or Dannex flips village today, I will advocate for keeping the other alive, at least for now. If Dannex flips village, I'm not going to advocate for exing Ash. Just because I think elim!Dannex could mean village!Ash doesn't mean I think village!Dannex for sure means elim!Ash. If that makes sense. As of right now, I don't want to exe Ash at all because I think he's more likely village than not. If any of this doesn't make sense, just let me know and I'll try to clarify it again.

How are Araris and Dannex connected for their alignment? Was it just by the vote?

I'm not sure that I understand the part where you talk about what happens if Dannex flip Village. You were kind of suggesting that an Elim might vote to break a V/V tie. I guess that's possible, but I don't really see how that's anywhere more likely to consider instead of just a Villager breaking a tie. Basically Dannex being Villager is NAI for Ash. I suppose you are saying the same thing in your own way. But it just feels weird for you to somewhat emphasize the Elim possibility instead of simply saying that the Village read on Ash isn't as strong.

[Quintessential]

11 hours ago, Whysper said:

Oh, I just realized. There wasn't a 2nd NK for the Assassin. I wonder if they forgot to submit their action.

Assassin kill is one-time, not every cycle like in the LG, so I doubt they intended to submit a kill last Night.

Other things:

The TUO kill: my own personal thing to add to this is that if Araris is elim, I could definitely see him suggesting low-info, low-activity kills  but that in and of itself isn't a reason to kill Araris, so eh. Not very useful.

 

Having stepped back and thought about it a bit, the situation with Araris/Dannex/Ash/Elan (I know no one's talking about Elan but I thought her vote was just as weird as Araris's so I'm including her too) is a bit more complex than you guys are making it seem. If we exe Dannex and he flips elim, then obviously that makes things look bad for Araris and Elan, and good for Ash. 

 

If Dannex flips village, that's NAI on Ash, as we've already said. But, uh... it doesn't... make Araris and Elan... look good either? I'm not entirely sure why people seem to think it does. If Dannex is vil, then it was a v/v tie and I could totally see elims voting one way or another to look like they care which person dies (as a villager might but an elim would not). (Edit: so basically Dannex flipping village says nothing about the others)

 

Similarly, if we exe Araris first and he flips elim, that implicates Dannex, but if we exe Araris and he flips vil, that doesn't actually say anything about Dannex at all. Vil!Araris being more sus of Illwei than of Dannex doesn't mean that Dannex isn't elim. Araris being village has no bearing on anyone else's alignment actually. Same goes for Elan: if Elan's elim, I'd be more sus of Dannex, but if she's vil then... that doesn't tell us anything about Dannex at all (or about Ash, or about Araris).

 

Also, a note on someone else: Striker. I could see elim!Striker voting on elim!Dannex and then switching last-minute with the knowledge that a vote would be manipped off of Dannex, thus saving him. I'm not sure what the purpose of doing something like that would be, but just looking at votes, Striker's vote did actually save Dannex. Striker's not by any means my primary suspect if Dannex flips elim, but I'm keeping that in mind.

 

Also, Dannex (Araris) because based on the above, it makes more sense to exe Dannex first I think. Nobody's vil flip will give us info on anyone else, but Dannex's elim flip will give info on multiple people, whereas Araris flipping elim only gives info on Dannex.

Edited March 28, 2021 by Quintessential

[Archer]

-Starting with Quinn’s vote late in C1, she made it Illwei (4), Dannex (4), Archer (2), Randby (1). Tani made an odd post that seemed to sheep Araris, then quick-edit change their mind, and gave the general impression of being somewhat rushed. Dannex seized on that and voted for Tani.

What’s the elim play here? Starting a CW on Tani in the last half-hour is too blatant for the elims to pull off without taking serious heat later. Were they bussing Dannex already? Because Dannex’s vote does nothing I can see to keep them alive, which is the primary goal of an elim. It would have made more sense to vote for Illwei in self-preservation. 

But it was then a tie, so perhaps they were trusting their trusty vote-manipulating teammate. Suddenly, Striker switches, bringing Dannex into the lead! If they’re e-e, that decreases the effectiveness of the vote manipulation plan. Why not just vote for Illwei?

Flyingbooks check in to, in my mind, prove they aren’t e-e with Dannex because they declined to vote. And here comes Ashbringer with another vote on Dannex! If he’s their teammate, they must be bussing. It would be better to manip off Striker’s vote and take the chances in a tie than to go for a bus this early in the game. If they didn’t have manipulation, vote Illwei to make a tie. Or just don’t vote and quietly cut your loses. I can see Striker and Ashbringer being individual elims just causing chaos, but they’re drawing unnecessary attention to themselves in the process. Why cast a deciding vote for someone you know is village and may flip at rollover?

And then Striker ties it at the end. If he made the tie to save Dannex, why’d he vote them in the first place to put them in danger? If he’s just a crazy elim, why is he so publicly contradicting himself about his stance on ties? It’s such a risky, convoluted play for so little gain.

So from the voting shenanigans, I rule out there being any connection between Striker, Dannex, and Ashbringer. I also have a village read on all three of them. If they are elims, they have a strange game-plan. I made the cut-off as after Quinn’s vote, but since Illwei flipped village, you could make the argument that Quinn were trying to defend them with their vote on Dannex. But I think it was a v/v tie situation, so elims wouldn’t care.

A lot of my Striker reads so far have been something to the effect of ‘an elim wouldn’t be careless enough to hedge like that or contradict themselves’. Maybe I just have too high an opinion of them

-Re: TUO kill. Gears made me think of this, so I checked whether they crumbed being Dalinar or Elhokar. As far as I can tell, they didn’t give any indication that they had a special role like that.

-It’s my opinion that at least one elim always votes in C1. Removing people I’ve village read, the suspect list therefore becomes Forge, Araris, Elandera, TJ Shade, Whysper, Quinn. I agree with Araris that I don’t think we’ve pushed the right people with our votes yet, so a new target is in order. TJ’s poke on Reading seemed helpful, so I’m not ready to vote for them. They’re running a game, so I don’t think I’d get much from them anyway in terms of response. I think I’ll tap Elandera, for having a very middle vote on a wagon that killed a villager. I don’t really remember them saying any red flags, but I’m low on suspects. Apologies for the weak reasoning. I am diversifying the field and seeing what happens. Speaking of which, unsolicited VC:

Dannex (2): Elandera, Quinn

Araris: Striker

TJ: Araris

Striker: Whysper

Elandera: Archer

[Quintessential]

Wait who's Forge?

[Archer]

Forge is my steampunk nickname for Forget Me Not 

Also, new thought about TUO. Maybe the elims just wanted to avoid hitting someone the bodyguard would protect...

[Quintessential]

19 minutes ago, Archer said:

Forge is my steampunk nickname for Forget Me Not 

Oohhh that makes sense  also I think I will use that now too (it certainly sounds better than Menot)

[+Whysper]

3 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Also, a note on someone else: Striker. I could see elim!Striker voting on elim!Dannex and then switching last-minute with the knowledge that a vote would be manipped off of Dannex, thus saving him. I'm not sure what the purpose of doing something like that would be, but just looking at votes, Striker's vote did actually save Dannex. Striker's not by any means my primary suspect if Dannex flips elim, but I'm keeping that in mind.

 

Also, Dannex (Araris) because based on the above, it makes more sense to exe Dannex first I think. Nobody's vil flip will give us info on anyone else, but Dannex's elim flip will give info on multiple people, whereas Araris flipping elim only gives info on Dannex.

Dannex (Striker)

Hmm, I think you are probably right that Dannex's flip will give the most info regarding everyone else surrounding that vote. I may have jumped too quickly on voting Striker just because I thought he was intentionally shading me. It's still a possibility that he's Elim and that he was indeed doing so, but from his response to me since I could see him as Villager. I think I need to get some distance from the situation and come back later to judge things better.

[danex]

Gotta love being info killed

theres literally no possible defense for that

i will say that y’all are putting way too much stock into this, it was D1, and as you yourselves said, D1 votes usually don’t mean anything. 

[StrikerEZ]

5 hours ago, Whysper said:

Hmm okay, perhaps I got a bit too sensitive on this. Your apology makes me feed bad about how I took it.  It's just that I've had stuff like this happen before and know I need to react to it before tunneling starts to occur. It's frustrating to have to deal with that the whole game through and pretty much have no way to counteract it because everything I say anymore just gets twisted to fit the initial impression that was put forth.

You don't need to feel sorry about how you took it. I'm glad you brought up how it made you feel, so I could apologize and clarify things.

5 hours ago, Whysper said:

How are Araris and Dannex connected for their alignment? Was it just by the vote?

I mean, yeah, basically. He voted for Illwei at a time when Dannex's exe was rising up and stuff, so if Dannex or Araris flip elim, there's a connection there.

5 hours ago, Whysper said:

I'm not sure that I understand the part where you talk about what happens if Dannex flip Village. You were kind of suggesting that an Elim might vote to break a V/V tie. I guess that's possible, but I don't really see how that's anywhere more likely to consider instead of just a Villager breaking a tie. Basically Dannex being Villager is NAI for Ash. I suppose you are saying the same thing in your own way. But it just feels weird for you to somewhat emphasize the Elim possibility instead of simply saying that the Village read on Ash isn't as strong.

I mean, I was just trying to say that my read on Ash is somewhat dependent upon the idea that Dannex is an elim. If Dannex is an elim, then Ash's vote on him right at the end seems really villager-y to me. If Dannex isn't an elim, then Ash's vote on Dannex is NAI. That's basically what I was trying to say.

4 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Having stepped back and thought about it a bit, the situation with Araris/Dannex/Ash/Elan (I know no one's talking about Elan but I thought her vote was just as weird as Araris's so I'm including her too) is a bit more complex than you guys are making it seem. If we exe Dannex and he flips elim, then obviously that makes things look bad for Araris and Elan, and good for Ash. 

 

If Dannex flips village, that's NAI on Ash, as we've already said. But, uh... it doesn't... make Araris and Elan... look good either? I'm not entirely sure why people seem to think it does. If Dannex is vil, then it was a v/v tie and I could totally see elims voting one way or another to look like they care which person dies (as a villager might but an elim would not). (Edit: so basically Dannex flipping village says nothing about the others)

So, I haven't been trying to say that Dannex flipping village clears Araris and Elan. I'm just saying that him flipping village makes them look better than they look right now, not that they can't still be elims anyway. If that makes sense.

4 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Similarly, if we exe Araris first and he flips elim, that implicates Dannex, but if we exe Araris and he flips vil, that doesn't actually say anything about Dannex at all. Vil!Araris being more sus of Illwei than of Dannex doesn't mean that Dannex isn't elim. Araris being village has no bearing on anyone else's alignment actually. Same goes for Elan: if Elan's elim, I'd be more sus of Dannex, but if she's vil then... that doesn't tell us anything about Dannex at all (or about Ash, or about Araris).

 

Also, a note on someone else: Striker. I could see elim!Striker voting on elim!Dannex and then switching last-minute with the knowledge that a vote would be manipped off of Dannex, thus saving him. I'm not sure what the purpose of doing something like that would be, but just looking at votes, Striker's vote did actually save Dannex. Striker's not by any means my primary suspect if Dannex flips elim, but I'm keeping that in mind.

 

Also, Dannex (Araris) because based on the above, it makes more sense to exe Dannex first I think. Nobody's vil flip will give us info on anyone else, but Dannex's elim flip will give info on multiple people, whereas Araris flipping elim only gives info on Dannex.

So, first off, Dannex (Araris), because I think this sums up a lot of why Dannex is a better exe option. At the same time, I am a bit concerned about the Dannex exe because...most of the reasoning has to do with what others have said about him, not much about what he's done himself, if that makes sense? I also just think that he'll probably eat up discussion no matter what happens with him (hmm...sounds familiar ), and his flip can tell us a lot about other people. So I guess I'm conflicted because I don't have much of a read on him, just want to know what his alignment is because of how others have interacted with him. And Dannex just posted...hmm...I can't tell if that's something an elim would say or not. I know being info killed never feels nice (LG73 anyone? ), but like...info kills are best done at the start of the game rather than near the end of the game.

@Dannex Do you have any defense for yourself besides "It was just D1 anyway"? Like, just because it was D1 doesn't mean we can't still gain information from it.

[Archer]

Late in D1, when it was a 4-4 tie, why didn't elim!Dannex vote Illwei to make it 4-5 to give themselves some breathing room? They voted Tani, which I don't think make sense for an elim to do. 

[StrikerEZ]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Late in D1, when it was a 4-4 tie, why didn't elim!Dannex vote Illwei to make it 4-5 to give themselves some breathing room? They voted Tani, which I don't think make sense for an elim to do. 

Maybe they knew that there would be vote manip? Didn't want to be seen going just for self defense? I'm not sure what his vote on Tani could mean. That throws a wrench in things....