Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Ashbringer]

45 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

• To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague. The mistborns in this game are probably more powerful in general this game overall, because (besides Zane for most of the time) they can choose the metals they want to use. Having that choice is a great plus for the village, even if you can't kill anyone. 
• To village scanners: please don't out Vin. The elims will all go after her if she's been outed, and they can be fairly certain she'll die as both teams will probably go for her, double hitting her.

... we should probably make one of our D1 Talking Points TM on what we should do if a Seeker finds a Mistborn, because if a Mistborn's outed there's a 2/3 chance you take out a really powerful Eliminator role and a 1/3 chance that you take out the most powerful and most Village role in the game.

Zane's a bit easier to prove as Zane (both from the random metals and the fact Zane can theoretically use the same metal twice in a row), but because Seekers can't see Atium/Duralumin then Gneordin and Vin are essentially indistinguishable... unless we force the Mistborn to burn their Atium to check action inputs, which Gneordin couldn't pass but Zane could. But then we're in "forcing people to do things isn't fun" territory. I think if Vin used her Duralumin on a Rioting, she could prove herself as Vin, as Zane would need to roll the 1/7 chance to get Zinc, but that wastes a very potent resource and can get messed up by Coinshots.

Any one else have ideas?

[StrikerEZ]

53 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Striker's post reads village to me. I... really don't know what to think about that :P.

43 minutes ago, Illwei said:

obviously he's evil

43 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well with my history

44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But I also don’t want to make assumptions based on meta which I already said I’m gonna try not to rely on especially in this case where I know it likely will be unreliable. But that turns into an IKYK with myself.

So ignoring it is. Playing by reads this game, Striker’s slight village. Until I have a reason to doubt that.

Okay, seriously though, thanks for this. As much fun as it is to joke about the meta with me and my tendency to be read as elim, it does get tiring after awhile. I've died every game since I've returned this last time, besides for the AG, though that doesn't count as no one knew it was me.

24 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... we should probably make one of our D1 Talking Points TM on what we should do if a Seeker finds a Mistborn, because if a Mistborn's outed there's a 2/3 chance you take out a really powerful Eliminator role and a 1/3 chance that you take out the most powerful and most Village role in the game.

Zane's a bit easier to prove as Zane (both from the random metals and the fact Zane can theoretically use the same metal twice in a row), but because Seekers can't see Atium/Duralumin then Gneordin and Vin are essentially indistinguishable... unless we force the Mistborn to burn their Atium to check action inputs, which Gneordin couldn't pass but Zane could. But then we're in "forcing people to do things isn't fun" territory. I think if Vin used her Duralumin on a Rioting, she could prove herself as Vin, as Zane would need to roll the 1/7 chance to get Zinc, but that wastes a very potent resource and can get messed up by Coinshots.

Any one else have ideas?

I mean, personally, I'd rather our seeker, if we have one, avoid outing the mistborn to begin with. They can keep this knowledge handy, for if the player in question starts seeming fishy, but I'd prefer if we avoid the conundrum of possibly killing Vin, or giving the elims the chance to kill Vin altogether. 

That's not what you're really asking about. I think you're asking about what we should do if the seeker does out a mistborn. In that scenario, I say we avoid exing the player. Unless a mistborn has already died, there's too low of a chance, for my tastes, that the outed mistborn is Vin. I don't know what to do long term for an outed mistborn, as the outing is a death sentence. Either the elims go after the mistborn (because it's either Vin or the other elim team's mistborn, which helps them), or they survive and become a discussion black hole that eventually gets them exed, whether or not they're an elim.

[Mat]

59 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Any one else have ideas?

I'm with Striker in that we just leave them be- if a Mistborn is outed I'd say there's a high high high likelihood of them being attacked- one of the two elim factions will either way, likely both if it's Vin. So they're dead if they're outed, and the elims will just do it for us so we don't have to think about it.

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

That's not what you're really asking about. I think you're asking about what we should do if the seeker does out a mistborn. In that scenario, I say we avoid exing the player. Unless a mistborn has already died, there's too low of a chance, for my tastes, that the outed mistborn is Vin. I don't know what to do long term for an outed mistborn, as the outing is a death sentence. Either the elims go after the mistborn (because it's either Vin or the other elim team's mistborn, which helps them), or they survive and become a discussion black hole that eventually gets them exed, whether or not they're an elim.

... too low of a chance that they're Vin? Assuming no Mistborns are down, it's a 1/3 chance, and it's not going to get any higher. Statistically exeing a Mistborn will kill an Elim the majority of the time. So isn't that exactly why we should exe them, or at least consider them much more suspicious?

If a Mistborn's already dead all of this kind of goes out the window. If Zane/Gneordin are gone, it's suddenly much easier for Vin to prove herself through a Mistborn metal/specific metal. If Vin's gone... goodbye Mistborn.

... also, coming right off of the LG I'm a little adverse to trying to predict what the Elims will do 

[|TJ|]

14 hours ago, Gears said:

Does this mean that being X-ed will affect one’s ability to vote in the elim kill?

No, the vote will be considered. 

13 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Note that TJ said the knowledge of an additional member was subject to the number of players. @TJ Shade can you confirm one way or another whether the elims know two other members each or just one?

Just one, they only know their Mistborns. Mistborns know nothing as stated.

Edit: 

VC - 

Quintessential (1): Archer
Liranil (1): Tani
StrikerEZ (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): STINK
STINK (1): Quintessential

Edited March 17, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Quintessential]

Okay--so I did see like the next couple of posts after I voted STINK last night, but... didn't really feel like responding.

Now I do. Archer's response felt off to me, both when I read it last night and when I reread it this morning. I'm not exactly sure what about it... I guess it felt faked? Or forced. Anyway, that's where my vote is going for now  

[PizzaPower55]

man how do i know who to vote

im bored PizzaPower55
jk PizzaPower55

[Shard of Reading]

12 minutes ago, PizzaPower55 said:

im bored PizzaPower55

The mods don't like it if you double post. Just edit it into your previous post.

[|TJ|]

13 minutes ago, PizzaPower55 said:

jk PizzaPower55

Please avoid double posting. If you've got something to say, and no one else has posted, edit stuff you want to say onto the same post. Thank you

Edit: What Reading said :P.

Edited March 17, 2021 by TJ Shade

[PizzaPower55]

Just now, Shard of Reading said:

The mods don't like it if you double post. Just edit it into your previous post.

ok cool

 

[STINK]

Well I was just used as bait so uh

How's everyone else doing

[Quintessential]

Just now, STINK said:

Well I was just used as bait so uh

How's everyone else doing

Not... bait, exactly  I just... wanted to see what would happen if I randomly voted someone

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Okay--so I did see like the next couple of posts after I voted STINK last night, but... didn't really feel like responding.

Now I do. Archer's response felt off to me, both when I read it last night and when I reread it this morning. I'm not exactly sure what about it... I guess it felt faked? Or forced. Anyway, that's where my vote is going for now  

So I asked why you voted Stink and you didn't feel like responding why, and so now you do feel like responding and your response is a vote on Archer?

Though you did just explain it up there I still find that kind of strange. 

[Quintessential]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

So I asked why you voted Stink and you didn't feel like responding why, and so now you do feel like responding and your response is a vote on Archer?

Though you did just explain it up there I still find that kind of strange. 

Vote on Archer wasn't a response to you at all. Actually, I'd forgotten you asked me tbh : P and yeah, like I said to STINK, I voted him to see what would happen, more or less.

[StrikerEZ]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... too low of a chance that they're Vin? Assuming no Mistborns are down, it's a 1/3 chance, and it's not going to get any higher. Statistically exeing a Mistborn will kill an Elim the majority of the time. So isn't that exactly why we should exe them, or at least consider them much more suspicious?

If a Mistborn's already dead all of this kind of goes out the window. If Zane/Gneordin are gone, it's suddenly much easier for Vin to prove herself through a Mistborn metal/specific metal. If Vin's gone... goodbye Mistborn.

... also, coming right off of the LG I'm a little adverse to trying to predict what the Elims will do 

......god I need to pay more attention to what I'm typing.  I meant that the odds are too high that she might be the outed mistborn, if one is outed, in my opinion. Like, I know 1/3 isn't that high, but it's still too high for my tastes.

And yeah, another mistborn being dead before this happens does change things. Once Vin dies, we just exe any outed mistborn.

Yeah, that's fair.

[|TJ|]

Ventyl has requested to withdraw from the game, so don't tag him. I'll try to find a pinch-hitter.

[Archer]

Just as a general note, overnight I rethought the distributions. I'm more willing to believe in four person elim teams now, because I always underestimate the power of scanners. Having 5:5:8 still seems high to me though, as the elims would outnumber the village.  

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I'll add a note on this: I don't think fake-claiming in and of itself is a bad thing. (Kas's LG Aftermath post gives a few good reasons for this, but 1) that's the LG with perfect Seekers and 2) a whole lot of PMs.)

Lurchers and Seekers, for instance, probably should fake a claim if given the chance, because those are really powerful roles even outside of LG/AG rules and thus are much more likely to get Elim killed, especially in this environment where there's two Elim teams. And a Seeker shouldn't out them unless they've got a really good reason to (ie they've burned another metal giving them a 2/3 chance of being Elim, or if they've been protecting Elims / scanning people who later die).

On the other hand, the main point of being a Thug is to not let anyone know you're a Thug so you can soak up an Elim kill or hammer or attempted misexe. Plus outed Thugs tend to have a hard time in games where there are confirmed Elim roles with extra lives, such as Conversion games or this game with the two Elim Mistborn. So fake-claiming as a Thug also is a good strategy.

If someone claims they're a Thug but is actually a visiting role, or claims Smoker but is actually a Coinshot, that's reason enough for suspicion. But fake-claiming as a Lurcher/Seeker/Thug is something that I think is fairly innocuous.

Yeah, if anyone claims Thug unprompted, it's an odd decision. It is either a bluff, trying to stop us from wasting an exe, elim-elim signaling, or an elim trying to save themselves. My problem with fake claims is they are usually about self-preservation. This is actually a good game for self-pres, because of the three team and limited information dynamics present opportunities for elim friendly fire, but I still feel that disinformation hurts the village more than the elims. 

Say two people claim to be Thugs. The real Thugs in the game are going to say that's odd, having four Thugs in the game doesn't seem likely. Say there's two of those guys. They come forward and now we've got four Thugs. If we believe them, that affects exlo calculations, may disguise the fact that there's vanillagers, and we may think the elims have more power roles than they do to compensate for the abnormal distribution, leading to meta mis-exes. And if a villager is mis-exed over the whole affair, it looks bad on whoever lied to cause it. It could be they thought they had a more important role, or it could be they were an elim sowing chaos. 

12 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Variel watched the day's events closely. It seemed that Straff and Cett had decided to come for Luthadel. Well, he couldn't have that happening in his city, now could he?

~

Hello! I'm alive. Today was rough, and I've only just now had time to go through and read the thread. Some thoughts I had, in no particular order:

• Not a fan of telling players how to play the game, whether that's telling them not to lie or to avoid talking about certain subjects that might help the elims. Not only is it perfectly valid to lie as a villager, it can sometimes even be beneficial as well, if the LG is anything to show us. Plus, the elims are already thinking about every way they might figure out who their teammates are. It's not like anything that's put in the thread will be new to them. Sure, if someone does a lot of talking about how the elims might coordinate, you can start side eying them, but I'm not a fan of preemptively telling players to avoid discussing something they might want to.
• To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague. The mistborns in this game are probably more powerful in general this game overall, because (besides Zane for most of the time) they can choose the metals they want to use. Having that choice is a great plus for the village, even if you can't kill anyone. 
• To village scanners: please don't out Vin. The elims will all go after her if she's been outed, and they can be fairly certain she'll die as both teams will probably go for her, double hitting her.
• @Illwei That vote's pretty fair, I'll give you that.

To clarify, everyone is welcome to use their own playstyles and engage how they like. My goal isn't to intimidate people, only to be transparent about how I will react and make people aware of the risks of what they are doing. 

See below about an exception; Vin should claim if a mistborn is outed. 

I can't help but feel that @ ing Illwei is an attempt to get the poke moved off. That's a similar response to what I'd give if I were an elim.

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't really love this reasoning- I mean, if you made good points you can expect people to agree with you. If people don't agree with you D1, chances are that's where their vote is going. So I'm not really sure where this is coming from. Though I'll only flag you for now because the rest of your posts have seemed village to me.

Me: *votes someone for agreeing with me too much*

Mat: *immediately finds something to disagree with me about*  

11 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... we should probably make one of our D1 Talking Points TM on what we should do if a Seeker finds a Mistborn, because if a Mistborn's outed there's a 2/3 chance you take out a really powerful Eliminator role and a 1/3 chance that you take out the most powerful and most Village role in the game.

Zane's a bit easier to prove as Zane (both from the random metals and the fact Zane can theoretically use the same metal twice in a row), but because Seekers can't see Atium/Duralumin then Gneordin and Vin are essentially indistinguishable... unless we force the Mistborn to burn their Atium to check action inputs, which Gneordin couldn't pass but Zane could. But then we're in "forcing people to do things isn't fun" territory. I think if Vin used her Duralumin on a Rioting, she could prove herself as Vin, as Zane would need to roll the 1/7 chance to get Zinc, but that wastes a very potent resource and can get messed up by Coinshots.

Any one else have ideas?

If you scan a Mistborn, you risk outing your own role as well as possibly revealing who Vin is. But in context, the rewards can outweigh the risks. It's going to take a while to kill any Mistborn. They have pewter, atium, and possibly lurcher and coinshot protection and exe-derailing vote manipulation from teammates. MR games don't take that long, especially ones where only villagers dies in the first few rounds. Having one beefy villager at the end of the game is still too few to win; we need bodies to keep the exe under village control. 

Say someone scans a mistborn and announces it to the thread. They will claim to be Vin. At that point, the real Vin can come forward to dispute it, or no one will challenge and we will know they are telling the truth. If they appear to be an elim, we will need to spend two exes taking them down, which is a lot in a 7 or 8 cycle-long game, especially near the end. If they turn out to be Vin, at least we know the identity of an elim. The other elim team might even take them out for us while this is happening. If their claim is undisputed, the real Vin is confirmed good, so we'll need to protect them. I believe they can survive two rounds of elim attacks before falling in the third. IKYK, pewter, atium, and teammates are enough to keep them safe. We're probably in the late stages of the game, or even exlo, at that point, so the future potential of the mistborn is going to have dwindled. 

What you don't want to do is sit on some information and then die with it from one of the three kills going around each cycle. So you'll need to use your best judgement about what to say when, scanners. My advice is to announce any mistborn you find, but it's up to you. Good luck. 

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Okay--so I did see like the next couple of posts after I voted STINK last night, but... didn't really feel like responding.

Now I do. Archer's response felt off to me, both when I read it last night and when I reread it this morning. I'm not exactly sure what about it... I guess it felt faked? Or forced. Anyway, that's where my vote is going for now  

You have decent instincts, Quinn, because it was slightly forced. I don't support exing you, so it was an information vote. At the back of my mind, I'm aware that elim!Quinn is very self-reflexive and wouldn't open themselves up to criticism like you did with an odd play. 

Your vote felt off. Normally you attach an explanation to your votes. I didn't see the point of @ ing Stink, because they are notoriously concise. You weren't going to get an emotional, defensive reply out of them. So what was the point of the poke? My assumption was that you had a lead but were busy and planned to come back later to fully explain. However, I'm trying a new thing where if I see something off (like Gears making a long post but not self-censoring bits that could be helpful to the elims), I call it out and attach a vote to add emphasis. It has the added benefit of making me less predictable. Basically, I'm copying Illwei's style a bit. 

I also find it a bit odd that you agreed with me a lot, so I mentioned it. The goal being to see if you'd defend yourself about that or cut to the heart of the matter. I'm reasonably content with your response.

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Well I was just used as bait so uh

How's everyone else doing

everyone always says heyo it's stinko but no one ever says how is stinko smh

[|TJ|]

Please welcome @Whysper to the game! She'll be replacing Ventyl.

[Mat]

...I would mark Quinn/Archer as possible e/e distancing but I really don't see how that could happen. The only way they both could know they were teammates is if they both rolled each other as the random teammate to learn, and they'd have no way of knowing the other did that.

Archer.

[Quintessential]

24 minutes ago, Archer said:

You have decent instincts, Quinn, because it was slightly forced. I don't support exing you, so it was an information vote. At the back of my mind, I'm aware that elim!Quinn is very self-reflexive and wouldn't open themselves up to criticism like you did with an odd play. 

Your vote felt off. Normally you attach an explanation to your votes. I didn't see the point of @ ing Stink, because they are notoriously concise. You weren't going to get an emotional, defensive reply out of them. So what was the point of the poke? My assumption was that you had a lead but were busy and planned to come back later to fully explain. However, I'm trying a new thing where if I see something off (like Gears making a long post but not self-censoring bits that could be helpful to the elims), I call it out and attach a vote to add emphasis. It has the added benefit of making me less predictable. Basically, I'm copying Illwei's style a bit. 

I also find it a bit odd that you agreed with me a lot, so I mentioned it. The goal being to see if you'd defend yourself about that or cut to the heart of the matter. I'm reasonably content with your response.

XD fair enough, though in actuality you're thinking way harder about this than I did. Nothing was happening, I wanted something to happen, so I voted someone and tagged them. The choice of STINK was purely someone-I-wouldn't-feel-bad-about-voting, I guess? And then I watched what happened.

And yeah, I get the whole trying-something-new thing lol (also, calling out things that feel off to you and attaching a vote is basically what I do as well, so that does make sense to me; would note, though, that if even you think it sounds forced you may wanna rethink it  or at least note that it's partly gut, rather than trying to squeeze reasoning out of a stone)

@Matrim's Dice note that TJ clarified that there are few enough players in the game that the elims only know the identity of their Mistborn. So yeah, two-way e/e distancing just isn't gonna happen this game, at least not this early.

 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

@Matrim's Dice note that TJ clarified that there are few enough players in the game that the elims only know the identity of their Mistborn. So yeah, two-way e/e distancing just isn't gonna happen this game, at least not this early.

Oh I missed that :P. Well, I kinda came to that conclusion already.

[---]

@Whysper Hi!!!!!

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

..I would mark Quinn/Archer as possible e/e distancing

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Just one, they only know their Mistborns. Mistborns know nothing as stated.

Teammates only know the Mistborn. I have some thoughts on this :P.

So they wouldn't be distancing, but they theoretically could be trying to...signal? something? smh 

EDIT:

 

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh I missed that :P. Well, I kinda came to that conclusion already.

????

Edited March 17, 2021 by Illwei
ninja'd

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Teammates only know the Mistborn. I have some thoughts on this :P.

So they wouldn't be distancing, but they theoretically could be trying to...signal? something? smh 

Get double ninja'd :P.

To be clear, that's wasn't the forefront reasoning to my vote.

Edit:

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

????

I missed the clarification yesterday- but came to the conclusion that it likely wasn't distancing anyway.

Edited March 17, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

STINK x Quinn x Archer Elim team number one case solved Illwei's done for the day

EDIT:

The thread is silent as elims tremble in the face of my god-tier reads

Edited March 17, 2021 by Illwei

[STINK]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

everyone always says heyo it's stinko but no one ever says how is stinko smh

awwwww

21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

STINK x Quinn x Archer Elim team number one case solved Illwei's done for the day

EDIT:

The thread is silent as elims tremble in the face of my god-tier reads

gg