Mat Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Straw doesn’t do role madness people. Ever. That I have seen. I noticed an unusually large number of similarities between TUO and Dannex’s analysis and don’t know what to think about it... Also: I am pinged off by Liranil’s post. Hrm. Currently trying to figure out why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I noticed an unusually large number of similarities between TUO and Dannex’s analysis and don’t know what to think about it... ...Great minds think alike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|TJ| Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: I doubt we'll have a messenger elim, unless the have a PM spider on their team. Huh, this makes no sense. What, Straw pulls the distro for the elim team, sees that one of them is usually a PM Spider, and then gives them the messenger role? Something is too specific here. Too TMI-y. The Unknown Order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TJ Shade said: Huh, this makes no sense. What, Straw pulls the distro for the elim team, sees that one of them is usually a PM Spider, and then gives them the messenger role? Something is too specific here. Too TMI-y. The Unknown Order ...I don't really have a response, but I from what people are saying about Straw it feels unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Liranil said: which doesn't seem too bad if the elims don't have a lot of Aviar or more powerful roles. Aviar don't protect from the...*ahem*...grinch, and Trappers hitting Elims is unlikely, with only one shot, so I don't think that Aviars matter here. I also don't think there's a 5 Elim team :P. 18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Also: I am pinged off by Liranil’s post. Hrm. Currently trying to figure out why Could it possibly be this? : 28 minutes ago, Liranil said: I'm not a huge fan of throwing out votes randomly... but I also don't feel the need to tiebreak as much since ties don't kill everyone this round. So... Kinda feels like an attempt to seem more village. 18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I noticed an unusually large number of similarities between TUO and Dannex’s analysis and don’t know what to think about it... I chalk it up to two players who have played Role Madness games :P. Danex was in....MR 46 and LG71...I don't think he had a role in those? idk. Wait. Was Danex a mistborn in LG71? right? idk. so it's...that thing where like, you get a role every game, so you assume that others also have it? not confirmation bias....er...idk. 7 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: ...I don't really have a response, but I from what people are saying about Straw it feels unlikely. ...? thought you just said it was likely ? Straw isn't going to assign roles to specific people (>>) it's gonna be RNG'd, so- ? EDIT: ..is it confirmation bias??? Edited February 7, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|TJ| Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: ...I don't really have a response, but I from what people are saying about Straw it feels unlikely. Yes but you added "unless they have a PM spider on their team" what do you mean? Agreed with Mat, something's off about Liranil's post. 27 minutes ago, Liranil said: I kinda like this reasoning, but I also know how many times I've missed someone's post, especially if it's a shorter one like Archer's. Particularly this ^ 4 minutes ago, Illwei said: I chalk it up to two players who have played Role Madness games :P. Danex was in....MR 46 and LG71 smh smh you be forgetting QF50 :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I noticed an unusually large number of similarities between TUO and Dannex’s analysis and don’t know what to think about it... So have I, and I am mildly suspicious of it. 18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Also: I am pinged off by Liranil’s post. Hrm. Currently trying to figure out why Because they agree with me about Bard and you don’t? Spoiler Bard/Matrim e/e team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TJ Shade said: smh smh you be forgetting QF50 :P. I was trying to think of games that Danex has been vanilla :P. MR46 - idk LG71 - Mistborn maybe? er.... LG72 - Truthless QF50 - Brown Ajah Idk, I don't keep tabs on everybody :ph34r; Yeah i know I could check the stats sheet but see the thing is I just don't want to :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|TJ| Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Illwei said: LG71 - Mistborn maybe? Aman was the solo Mistborn, iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Aman was the solo Mistborn, iirc. Was danex then a mistborn in LG72...no that don't- this conversation is meaningless xD Okay basically my point was as two people who haven't rolled vanilla, that may be why they assume more roles than I think there are. EDIT: 7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Yes but you added "unless they have a PM spider on their team" what do you mean? TUO/Illwei Elim team confirmed Edited February 7, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: I was trying to think of games that Danex has been vanilla :P. MR46 - idk LG71 - Mistborn maybe? er.... LG72 - Truthless QF50 - Brown Ajah Idk, I don't keep tabs on everybody :ph34r; Yeah i know I could check the stats sheet but see the thing is I just don't want to :P. I think I was vanilla in my one Elim game, whatever that was either way I don’t think that matters, that’s not why I think there’s a lot of doctors. I believe we have 3-4 because they have a doc. 1-2 doctors with their own doc doesn’t make a ton of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Dannex said: I think I was vanilla in my one Elim game, whatever that was either way I don’t think that matters, that’s not why I think there’s a lot of doctors. I believe we have 3-4 because they have a doc. 1-2 doctors with their own doc doesn’t make a ton of sense. You've played ToS, two meds are fairly common and essentially do just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, The Unknown Order said: You've played ToS, two meds are fairly common and essentially do just that. Ehhhh, I guess. Having an entire doc feels different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Dannex said: Ehhhh, I guess. Having an entire doc feels different though. Entire doc versus entire chat, it doesn't feel different to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I've been ninjad six times writing this. Gak. My PM buddy is claiming vanilla, and it would be a bad idea to lie about that with the bookkeeper role in the game. Assuming there were vanillas got us in trouble in QF50, but I feel okay thinking there are some in this one. If we're assuming there is an Elim doctor, dying people should do their best to make them slip and reveal their identities. Have fun with that. However, the hospital doc is published publicly afterwards, ya? So the elims might be blindsided by a revelation, but I don't think it's integral to their team to have a doctor. My guess is either 2 village doctors or one village and one Elim. At most there'll be three. I'm guessing a maximum of two trappers. The Elim team will likely have 3 or 4 people. 5 is ridiculous in a parity game, they'd win after three rounds. 25% makes much more sense. My post was small, I can understand it being missed. You with the RP birds, are you claiming Aviar roles? *** Third quite liked the sound of the Three Musketeers, even though he didn't know what a musket was. He also found the man poking around the bar funny. People had spoken highly of him in the snippets of conversation he'd heard. "Ya know, regular people are okay at division. They can chop things into fourths no problem. But to be a real pro you have to be able to chop things into quarters, then quarter those quarters! Sixteenth is apparently really good at it. I've even heard people on the ship call him the quartermaster." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Archer said: but I feel okay thinking there are some in this one. I believe it was confirmed in the rules that there are some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 49 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Huh, this makes no sense. What, Straw pulls the distro for the elim team, sees that one of them is usually a PM Spider, and then gives them the messenger role? Something is too specific here. Too TMI-y. The Unknown Order ...Yeah, but is it a slip, or confusion... 46 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: ...I don't really have a response, but I from what people are saying about Straw it feels unlikely. And then this is just a blatant contradiction. So I have no clue. Uh, side-eyeing TUO now. If a PM spider flips elim look at more closely Quinn maybe Three different people asking if the three different parts of Liranil's post is what tipped me off, each person choosing their own of the three. Nice. Uh. 42 minutes ago, Illwei said: Kinda feels like an attempt to seem more village. I don't think so... of that, it's more that they said "I dont' like throwing out random votes" and then threw out a random vote. 42 minutes ago, Illwei said: ..is it confirmation bias??? I've put off this question long enough what's confirmation bias 37 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Particularly this ^ Yeah see this is the same as before, like 'I like this but I disagree with it' 37 minutes ago, Dannex said: Because they agree with me about Bard and you don’t? Ha maybe I tend to elim-read people I disagree with, especially early on. So maybe that's part of it. But I still don't like your vote :P. 37 minutes ago, Dannex said: Spoiler Bard/Matrim e/e team? Pfft like I'd be that obvious about it 29 minutes ago, Dannex said: either way I don’t think that matters, that’s not why I think there’s a lot of doctors. I believe we have 3-4 because they have a doc. 1-2 doctors with their own doc doesn’t make a ton of sense. ...This doesn't make much sense to me. A doc isn't a reason to have more of the role. Solo docs definitely exist. 28 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: You've played ToS, two meds are fairly common and essentially do just that. Aren't you one of the people advocating for 4 doctors? The small contradictions are adding up... 14 minutes ago, Archer said: If we're assuming there is an Elim doctor, dying people should do their best to make them slip and reveal their identities. Have fun with that. However, the hospital doc is published publicly afterwards, ya? So the elims might be blindsided by a revelation, but I don't think it's integral to their team to have a doctor. My guess is either 2 village doctors or one village and one Elim. At most there'll be three. Wait, is the Hospital anonymous? I was assuming it wasn't... 13 minutes ago, Dannex said: I believe it was confirmed in the rules that there are some. It was confirmed that there can be some, but not necessarily that there are. But given Straw, I'd say there most certainly is. And probably quite a lot of them. *** So, as I stand now: I don't like Quinn (gut), TUO (contradictions), or Liranil (above stuff). I don't really have any solid vil reads yet, which is kinda surprising for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Aren't you one of the people advocating for 4 doctors? The small contradictions are adding up... This was in reply to this: 38 minutes ago, Dannex said: I think I was vanilla in my one Elim game, whatever that was either way I don’t think that matters, that’s not why I think there’s a lot of doctors. I believe we have 3-4 because they have a doc. 1-2 doctors with their own doc doesn’t make a ton of sense. Pointing out that in ToS 1-2 medium (doctors) are fairly common, it wasn't a contradiction, it was me pointing out that they've been in games where that happened. Getting some Matrim sus, I'll @Straw because I'm editing. Edited February 7, 2021 by The Unknown Order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: If a PM spider flips elim look at more closely Quinn maybe Smh legitimately offended that I'm not the first person you think of here ;-; /s 3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I've put off this question long enough what's confirmation bias *googles* > the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories. 5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Solo docs definitely exist. Haha a solo doc in a solo doc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, The Unknown Order said: This was in reply to this: Pointing out that in ToS 1-2 medium (doctors) are fairly common, it wasn't a contradiction, it was me pointing out that they've been in games where that happened. I know it was in reply to that. I was just confused why you'd correct someone's reasoning that you agree with :P. Like, if you think there's four doctors, and Dannex thinks there's four doctors, why say anything that discredits that? Just now, Illwei said: Smh legitimately offended that I'm not the first person you think of here ;-; /s You were but I was voting Quinn at the time You'd already been mentioned 1 minute ago, Illwei said: > the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories. Ah ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: Haha a solo doc in a solo doc XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: Like, if you think there's four doctors, and Dannex thinks there's four doctors, why say anything that discredits that? I don't like this statement? I mean, opinions change? if everyone came into the game with thier set opinions and never changed them, it wouldn't be that fun of a game :P. we're throwing Ideas out and then basically asking people to disprove them. Danex gave some reasoning that TUO didn't agree with, so he countered it. He's not trying to get people to believe him with Faulty evidence. I'm giving town points for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: I don't like this statement? I mean, opinions change? if everyone came into the game with thier set opinions and never changed them, it wouldn't be that fun of a game :P. we're throwing Ideas out and then basically asking people to disprove them. Danex gave some reasoning that TUO didn't agree with, so he countered it. He's not trying to get people to believe him with Faulty evidence. I'm giving town points for that. I don't think TUO is necessarily elim for the countering. I just thought it was interesting that the counter also discredited what they said before. Of my three sort of elim reads TUO is my least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I just thought it was interesting that the counter also discredited what they said before. I mean, I just know that I've definitely done that before. Contradicted myself in arguing with someone else that is? because when someone else presents the same argument as you, I feel like it's easier to poke holes in it than it is to poke holes in a theory you've crafted yourself. EDIT: 29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: You'd already been mentioned I'd been mentioned by me >> Edited February 7, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShrubSeph Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I actually caught up on the thread! I wonder how long that will last... I don't have much on reads, but I'm here and will try to be more active than in previous games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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