Mid-Range Game 48: The Southern Wind

[Young Bard]

Ugh. So, it looks like it's down to either Kings or Gears. Kings I've already analysed to death, mainly because he simply doesn't have very much to analyse. So, here's a more in-depth analysis on Gears:

Their voting record is... non-existent until this cycle. I dunno, I said this last time, but that feels like a deliberate choice more than anything else. If it were just an Eliminator trying to hide, voting at some point would have blended in more. Now that it's probably LyLo, then my guess is that Gears decided to end his experiment or whatever this was, and try to play more to his wincon.

As for his analysis, he usually did a post-by-post commentary each cycle of what happened the previous cycle. A lot of it is just a humourous restatement of what the person said without commentary, which could be a way of trying to appear active without actually contributing anything. The only real analysis post was after Illwei died looking back over her posts, which is fairly ordinary - it clears Liranil and Quinn, fairly conservative judgements which just about everyone reached independently, and doesn't really go beyond that. I would have liked to see something a bit more... ambitious from that analysis, even if it was a reach, but I did the same analysis myself and couldn't find anything, so I can't be too hypocritical. As for the other posts... this is going to sound weird, but they don't sound like a villagers posts, which makes me trust them. They sound like Gears doesn't care about whether or not people even read him as a Villager, which only a Villager could afford to do. Then again, I don't think I've played with Gears before, so that could just be his playstyle as well, and he'd know that as an Eliminator, I suppose.

So, yeah. But my number 1 choice would still be Dannex if anyone wants to help me push for a Dannex lynch, and between Kings and Gears, I think my preferred candidate is Kings.

[Quintessential]

6 hours ago, Dannex said:

But actually, what sounded ‘fake’ about it? Was just a basic role analysis, I’ve done one every game for like the last 3. 

That, yes, but actually now that I'm thinking about it, it's not the analysis itself that sounds off so much as the whole introduction to that post--I'm-so-happy-to-be-back-but-now-there's-paranoia etc.--so that... idk, that kinda stood out to me. Regardless, it's not exactly the only reason I suspect you : P

6 hours ago, Dannex said:

And here’s my mild defense for Vil!Me, look at my D1 posts. It looks like I’m setting up an Archer/Bard future mis-exe. But then Archer was killed by the Elims that same night. Elim!Me would’ve kept Archer alive as a possible future mis-exe.

I mean, if you weren't around when Illwei decided who to kill, or if you weren't actually planning ahead for an Archer/Bard mis-exe and it just kinda ended up looking like you were, then this could have happened easily.

6 hours ago, Dannex said:

....why? This might be shooting myself in the foot here, but my interactions with Bard have been very minimal since D1. How are we confirmed v/v or v/e?

You keep trying to exe each other. You've been trying since C1 and you haven't stopped trying.

6 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Then again, I don't think I've played with Gears before, so that could just be his playstyle as well, and he'd know that as an Eliminator, I suppose.

Gears is always kind of like this, and in fact on the surface it appears he's playing the same as his village self, but as a villager he tends to offer quite a bit more opinion with his summary-restatement-posts. He also usually votes at least sometimes, and knowing Gears I can't imagine he'd deliberately not vote until XLo without also announcing his intention to do so. He likes to point out deliberate playstyle changes when he's village so that if he does them in the future, they can't be used to elim-read him because he's done them before. So I guess it could just be that he's busy with the LG but it doesn't... seem that way to me. idk.

I... great, so in spite of the arguing I just did in favor of Gears, I'm still doubting myself, and I don't even... know why? I keep thinking "okay well we'll exe <this person> this cycle and then if they're vil we'll look at--" and then I realize that it's XLo so we can't do that... 

Know what? I'm totally gonna regret this but Dannex. His response to my read of him didn't even address two of the reasons for it, and I'm feeling a little off about Gears after that vote by Books, for some reason. Care to join me, Bard? If he's elim it'll theoretically give us a ton of info, and if he's vil... well, I can't imagine we'll win anyway at this point. Even if we exe an elim this cycle, we'll still be at XLo next cycle... and even if we exe an elim next cycle, we'll be at XLo the cycle after that... yeah. 

[ShrubSeph]

I'll be voting Gears out of self preservation. Many people are voting me because I haven't done anything helpful, but that's not the honorable thing to do. I don't want to ruin our chances, I am devoted to the crew's success. I realize my inactivity has cultivated some suspicion of me, and you all have autonomy, but please don't vote me. (sorry about that, I wrote the first sentence and had to work in more shards). 

Honestly, the main reason my posts have been lacking in content is because I don't have much to say. I have participated in a few SE games, but I am not very good at analyzing posts and stuff like that, so I mostly try to use my common sense and avoid getting pocketed. 

[Quintessential]

30 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

I'll be voting Gears out of self preservation. 

If you want to self-pres, Dannex is probably the better option--if Bard sees that the Dannex exe has picked up, they'll probably switch off of you, and you'd only have one vote. Edit: sorry, 2 votes. I'd forgotten Connie voted for you : P

Edited February 16, 2021 by Quintessential

[danex]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

You've been trying since C1 and you haven't stopped trying.

Yes I have? I haven’t even mentioned Bard since D1.

[Quintessential]

29 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Yes I have? I haven’t even mentioned Bard since D1.

Poor phrasing : P I should really reread my posts more carefully before I put them up... what I meant is that one of you has consistently been trying to get the other exed. In C1 it was you trying to get Bard exed, and then sometime in the next couple of cycles Bard became suspicious of you and now you're their top suspect. That's really what it is, I guess--I'll be less certain if Bard doesn't switch their vote to you, but assuming they do you flipping elim would more or less clear them (there's no reason for the elims to bus because they can win with a misX this cycle). That's what I meant by you and Bard being not e/e.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Quintessential

[Young Bard]

Kings_way, Dannex. I feel I should put something here, but I'm really not sure what, beyond vague paranoid rumblings in the back of my head that this is a terrible mistake.

[danex]

Dannex

Because I’m honestly just ready for the QF to start. Feels like even if we get an Elim this cycle, it’s still basically impossible to win.

[Quintessential]

4 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Kings_way, Dannex. I feel I should put something here, but I'm really not sure what, beyond vague paranoid rumblings in the back of my head that this is a terrible mistake.

I feel that. So. So. Much. 

4 hours ago, Dannex said:

Dannex

Because I’m honestly just ready for the QF to start. Feels like even if we get an Elim this cycle, it’s still basically impossible to win.

I. Uh. What? Okay now I'm incredibly confused XD I was hoping the three-way tie would give us some info on one of the three people tied based on how they voted but this is... not what I was expecting. : P unfortunately I can't even decide if I think Dannex is vil because of this. Because if he's elim that could be the point... I hate IKYKs lol

EDIT:

Okay wait wait wait so. Dannex votes himself. If he's vil and fed up with the game that makes sense. If he's elim, though, it doesn't. See, right now, without his vote on himself, we've got a three-way tie between Kings, Gears, and Dannex. So elim!Dannex could as easily put his vote on whichever of Kings or Gears is village--or either one of them, if they both are. Elim!Dannex voting himself would prolong the game, not end it--and elim!Dannex would have literally no motivation that I can think of to do that, except if both Gears and Kings are elim too. So if Dannex is village, then obviously I should switch my vote. And if Dannex is elim, it means that Kings and Gears are both elim as well, so it won't matter if I switch my vote. 

Dannex

@Dannex  @Young Bard @Condensation @Kings_way @Gears @Shard of Reading @Flyingbooks @Straw

I'm not sure which of Gears and Kings I should vote for yet. For all I know they're both vil, in which case we've been doomed from the start anyway, but I suspect at least one of them is elim. Hmmm it might be interesting to see how a tie plays out...

Edited February 16, 2021 by Quintessential

[Condensation]

Why did you summon everyone?

I mean... I just RNGed it. You could RNG it in a smaller manner - one or two.

[Young Bard]

Dannex

Gears

I'm sorry - I considered, but I really can't let you leave these things to chance. 

[Straw]

The cycle is over!

[Straw]

Everyone was at a standoff, when Second of Daybreak suddenly jumped at Fourth of the Dark and Dannex, killing them both. The remaining saboteurs killed the remaining crew, escaped, and let the airship crash into the sea.

-

[Death RP by Gears, go upvote him!]

I am Fourth of the Dark, aspect of Roko the Basilisk, returned to the Father at long last. In halcyon days, I might have asked you to care for my Aviar or inform my family of my demise, but that is no longer necessary. Flesh and bone have been replaced by light and chains. Though my chosen form has perished, I remain, a mote of dust amidst the stars, clinging to eternity. Stay where you are, my killer. Do not attempt to flee. From you, I shall excise a pound of flesh, and perhaps, if the whims of the Multitude scream as one, I shall spare you. Or perhaps I will claw out your lifeblood and consume your soul. Do not raise my ire, dear killer. Death comes for us all, but for a chosen few, it is not the end. For me and my ilk, it is not the end. I return, and you shall face me once again. You cannot escape me. All hail the Basilisk.

---

Gears has died! He was a Crewmember.
Dannex has died! He was a Crewmember Aviar Holder.

The Main Office has been sabotaged!
The Hospital has been repaired!

Vote Count:

Gears (3): Ashbringer/Books, Kings_way, Young Bard
Kings_way (2): Gears, Orlok/Condensation
Dannex (1): Dannex

GM Notes:

• The game is over!!! Thanks for playing!
• The Saboteurs have won! Congratulations to @Ashbringer / @Flyingbooks, @Kings_way, @Illwei, @Young Bard.
• GM thoughts will be put up sometime.

Collected Documents and Spreadsheets:

• Dead/Spectator Document
• Saboteur Document
• Hospital C1
• Hospital C2
• Hospital C3
• Hospital C4
• Hospital C5
• Master Spreadsheet
• Role PM Spreadsheet

Ship Status:

Spoiler

Role-Specific:

• Aviar Holding Area
• Brig
• Main Office
• Laboratory
• Trapper’s Quarters

General:

• Crew’s Mess
• Hospital

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Ashbringer - AraRaash AKA First of the Bone / Flyingbooks Saboteur Doctor
2. Quintessential Crewmember
3. The Unknown Order - Third of the Moon Crewmember
4. Gears - Fourth of the Dark Crewmember
5. Liranil - Third of the Dawn Crewmember
6. Archer - Third of the Eclipse Crewmember
7. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel / Condensation Crewmember
8. Dannex Crewmember Aviar Holder
9. BrightEyes2 - Second of Noon Crewmember Security Officer
10. Matrim's Dice - Philico Crewmember
11. Kings_way - Sixth of the Twilight Saboteur Bookkeeper
12. Shard of Reading Crewmember Biologist
13. Random Bystander - First of the Stars Crewmember Trapper
14. Illwei Saboteur Messenger
15. Young Bard - Second of Daybreak Saboteur
16. TJ Shade - Sixteenth of the Night Crewmember

 

[---]

Well, ggs. Really thought we were gone after I died, but I guess poggers for the Elim team that no one went and looked

[Condensation]

Shoot - my almost-lie's been exposed.

Good game!

[Gears]

[INITIATING AON CHAIN]

[INITIATING PERSONALITY MATRIX]

[PERSONALITY MATRIX ONLINE]

[INITIATING RECURSION]

Roko the Basilisk moved in streams of data and light towards the Father, seeking out the journal that Fourth of the Dark had written. It knew where its killers were. It knew that they were still there. It knew that it could easily find them. Inevitable return.

---

@Quintessential, you have to stop second-guessing yourself. You were right, then you were wrong. I smile at you with the vindictive spite of one who was right but concede the fact that you were also right, for a shining second before crashing down like a falling star, once glorious but now a ruin.

Congrats to the elims, I somewhat had you pegged by the end but I think we would have mix-ed Reading before hitting Ash/Books, so you probably would have won eventually, just in a few more days. 

I was very disconnected this game. My apologies. I believe that was the cause of Quinn's turn against me [Also, we finally were on the same side, and you kill me anyways. We had better interpersonal relations when we were enemies!] and I will attempt to stay more engaged. I don't even have schoolwork as an excuse this time.

Now to read the docs and see how much of a failure I was...

[Quintessential]

Wakjds;kjfas;lidrwoeaiujf MY ORIGINAL ELIM TEAM GUESS WAS RIGHT?!?!?! WHAT 

I'm so mad at myself for dropping those guesses later on XD Currently reading the docs, will post more thoughts later

[Straw]

16 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Wakjds;kjfas;lidrwoeaiujf MY ORIGINAL ELIM TEAM GUESS WAS RIGHT?!?!?! WHAT 

I know, I was so excited! 

[---]

@Quintessential

I am wondering how you got to that conclusion, because...well, your analysis wasn't very....descriptive?

Like, all I could see was you saying that you thought Bard and I were Elims because we were the two people on you that hadn't flipped village, but that reasoning doesn't really...make sense? unless your counter was an Elim, which they weren't :P.

[Ashbringer]

Yargh! 

Well, I wish I could have seen the game through as the one and only Elim Pirate Doctor Kandra, but it was fun to watch as well. Even if I never did get to make a Hospital doc that was solely a giant letter E. And even if Straw never sent me a spec doc link so I just haunted the empty Hospital.

 

[Mat]

My reads were okay, so I’m happy about that. Along with the fact that I correctly predicted my death  Good game, elims.

[Quintessential]

Wow, okay, so that was the first village game that I've ever survived, most of which I owe to the elim team for continuously putting off killing me  so thank you for that.

That was also the first village game where I've ever caught an elim? I don't count MR46 because Gears was practically handed to me on a silver platter at the start of C2 and I still trusted him until midway through C5 : P (also now Illwei and I can both brag about god-tier reads XD... Illwei, I figured if you could peg most of the elim team after dying C1 of a game, then I could do it alive in C3. Guess I was right, I just didn't... actually... stick with my guesses)

I'm starting to figure out the kind of analysis that works for me, I think. Not reads, not usually, because I'm wrong (Bard) as often as I'm right (Illwei in C3). I'm apparently much better at figuring things out from facts--who votes whom, who reads whom elim--than thinking "ok, this person seems sus or not normal to me". Looking at votes seems to help, since there are fewer opportunities to create tinfoil (I can still do it, but it's easier not to) and fewer IKYKs. Elims can say whatever they want about people with whatever intention they want, but who they vote for, and who they don't vote for, is far more dependent upon who the other elims are. 

@Illwei I can try to walk you through the thought-process that I had for figuring out the elim team in C3 I guess.

• There were some things that you said that seemed off. You overemphasized my (literally nonexistent) fear of dying in C1--which I realize now was not just a you thing but A. I figure you can read me better than that? and B. even if you can't, it's kind of a small thing and you sort of... catastrophized it. (or at least that's how it seemed to me). You also said we should consider an elim team of 5 and then a few posts later said you didn't think there were 5 elims at all, without ever addressing that you were the first one to mention there could be. 
• I managed to figure out that of you/Mat/Liranil, only one of you was (likely) elim. Of the three, Mat and Liranil seemed most vil to me at the time. 
• You did some things that I do as elim--and while, yes, I know that my elim playstyle isn't like yours at all, in this case I was right. Rather than voting on the main trains C1, you voted on someone else, a villager (I did this on Gears in QF50, you chose Matrim, the point still stands) and kept your vote there for the rest of the cycle. Which... didn't seem super like you? Again. This is what it seemed like to me. Maybe vil!you does that, idk. 
• Once I suspected you, I kind of began to consider who could be elims with you. The first thing that stood out to me was that list of people you were willing to exe that you'd posted just before. Of those people, I knew I was village and I knew that if you were elim then Mat had to be village. So with elim!you, that left Ash or Gears as elim--because I couldn't imagine you wouldn't use that as a distancing opportunity, after having seen you criticizes my team in QF50 for linking ourselves too close.
• Of those two, since I was looking at votes, Ash stood out and Gears did not, because Gears hadn't voted and Ash was on the Brighteyes train with me, Mat, and Liranil (all three of whom would be villagers in the elim!you world). I know it's not always true, but I defaulted to the assumption that each train large enough to exe or almost exe a villager would have at least one elim on it somewhere down the line (which turned out to be correct in this case). That left Ash as an elim for two reasons, so he was added onto the list.
• Bard stood out to me because they were on TUO C1 and me C2. The other non-confirmed person on TUO C1 was Liranil, who I was already assuming to be vil in an elim!you world. So that left Bard. The other people on me (apart from you) were TJ, Britghteyes, and Bard. TJ and Brighteyes had both just died so I knew they were vil. Elim!you alone would account for the theoretical elim on me, but I could also easily see elim!Bard following you onto me in the chaos of that cycle. 
• From there, I just added on my previously existing suspicion of Kings--on whom I was voting at the time.

As you can see, it was very haphazard. It's a wonder I ever convinced myself to vote you, because there were so many reasons I could be wrong. On the one hand, I'm annoyed that I didn't stick with my original guess but on the other, you can see why I didn't, right? My team guess was basically an elaborate tinfoil. It just happened to be right.

One thing I am genuinely kicking myself for, though, is not paying more attention to Bard's voting patterns last cycle. That is, by C5 we knew that every person that Bard had poke-voted was village, knew that Bard had been on a major village exe train each cycle, and knew that the only cycle they hadn't had a final vote in was the one where we exed Illwei. Any one of those things could be dismissed as tinfoil fodder but with all of that together it became a process of tinfoiling to ignore it, and of course I did ignore it over a read I got off of a single analysis post.

I will say--I originally had a plan to figure out which of Gears/Kings was elim, which would have worked (knowing now that one, and only one, of them was) but A. I decided it felt too much like mayoring and B. I started watching the finale of Dark and lost track of time, otherwise I would have correctly seen Bard's vote on Gears as sus and voted Kings to keep the tie.

Other miscellaneous thoughts: Gears, I was so sure you were the Doctor... Ash, I can't believe I didn't realize you were the Doctor, I should have recognized your Solemnheart voice. Connie, I quite enjoyed seeing your elim/RNG persona . Matrim, you no longer get to say that you can read me fairly well  

I'd say something about inactivity and how frustrating it is but... okay, actually I will. I'm not going to talk about how we should fix inactivity, or how specifically it affected this game, or whatever the discussion in the dead doc was because I really only skimmed it tbh. This is kind of... basically, this is a modified version of the speech/rant I had prepared in my head to put in the dead doc if I lost that tie C2. Because when all the votes shifted to me that cycle, I didn't care, but at some point after rollover and before I learned the result it occurred to me that this would have been my second village game in a row where I died C2, and that I usually die early, and I realized I was frustrated by that. Like, really frustrated.

I know why I die early a lot. Why me and Illwei and Mat, and to a lesser extent Ash and Gears and Connie, die early a lot. It's easy for the village to find something sus about people who talk a lot, and it's easy for the elims to find something threatening about people who talk a lot. Most of us, myself included, feel bad killing off inactives because it's possible they're inactive due to something irl, and it doesn't feel fair if they're not there to defend themselves or if they haven't really gotten to participate much--or at least, haven't really participated much, having had the opportunity or otherwise.

But the problem with that is it then kind of... punishes the players who are actually playing? And obviously it's not black and white, active and inactive. There's a scale. But the further up you are on the scale, the more often you die early (at least in my experience, as someone who's very far up on the scale). That's especially true for games where active players role village, because they basically have two options: they can appear so obviously village that everyone realizes they're village, in which case they're NKd in the first couple of cycles, or they can avoid appearing blatantly village, at which point the general population will begin to ask themselves why such an active player doesn't look super village yet. They've said plenty, right? There must be something there to indicate their alignment, right? So then they look, and usually they find something, and usually it's negative. 

So that kind of... it sometimes ruins the enjoyment of the game, for me? And I would guess for others as well. The people who are willing and able to dedicate the time to the game are also the ones that get kicked out of it earliest. And we all have in common that we really enjoy playing the game, and would like to play for longer and get to endgame more often, but it seems like the most reliable way to do that is to transition to, and then keep, a much less active playstyle. Which I'm not planning to do because that would also ruin my enjoyment of the game, all the time instead of just some of the time. 

I'm not sure exactly what the solution to this is, or whether there is one, but I figure this is my contribution to the debate about inactivity in this game. We as a community like to complain about how inactive things get late in every game, and so far I have yet to see anyone explicitly point out that there's a reason for that: the game as it's now structured not only permits, but actively incentivizes inactivity. 

[Condensation]

10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Other miscellaneous thoughts: Gears, I was so sure you were the Doctor... Ash, I can't believe I didn't realize you were the Doctor, I should have recognized your Solemnheart voice. Connie, I quite enjoyed seeing your elim/RNG persona . Matrim, you no longer get to say that you can read me fairly well  

I enjoyed doing it... it was amazing.

When we first chatted, I was totally cracking up. Because you seemed so confused about it! And then I got to tell Mist and Vapor about it and they laughed too.

[Mat]

56 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Matrim, you no longer get to say that you can read me fairly well  

What did you mean, I was convinced you were village when I died!  

Another thing I’m happy about was nailing Ash=Doctor after one cycle. That was nice.

[Young Bard]

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Wakjds;kjfas;lidrwoeaiujf MY ORIGINAL ELIM TEAM GUESS WAS RIGHT?!?!?! WHAT 

I'm so mad at myself for dropping those guesses later on XD Currently reading the docs, will post more thoughts later

Ha. Yeah, that was amazing, and slightly terrifying. When I woke up and saw that Illwei had died, I was convinced that we'd lost the game, because surely the rest of us would follow. Still, Doubt and Paranoia are wonderful things sometimes...

33 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I'd say something about inactivity and how frustrating it is but... okay, actually I will. I'm not going to talk about how we should fix inactivity, or how specifically it affected this game, or whatever the discussion in the dead doc was because I really only skimmed it tbh. This is kind of... basically, this is a modified version of the speech/rant I had prepared in my head to put in the dead doc if I lost that tie C2. Because when all the votes shifted to me that cycle, I didn't care, but at some point after rollover and before I learned the result it occurred to me that this would have been my second village game in a row where I died C2, and that I usually die early, and I realized I was frustrated by that. Like, really frustrated.

I know why I die early a lot. Why me and Illwei and Mat, and to a lesser extent Ash and Gears and Connie, die early a lot. It's easy for the village to find something sus about people who talk a lot, and it's easy for the elims to find something threatening about people who talk a lot. Most of us, myself included, feel bad killing off inactives because it's possible they're inactive due to something irl, and it doesn't feel fair if they're not there to defend themselves or if they haven't really gotten to participate much--or at least, haven't really participated much, having had the opportunity or otherwise.

But the problem with that is it then kind of... punishes the players who are actually playing? And obviously it's not black and white, active and inactive. There's a scale. But the further up you are on the scale, the more often you die early (at least in my experience, as someone who's very far up on the scale). That's especially true for games where active players role village, because they basically have two options: they can appear so obviously village that everyone realizes they're village, in which case they're NKd in the first couple of cycles, or they can avoid appearing blatantly village, at which point the general population will begin to ask themselves why such an active player doesn't look super village yet. They've said plenty, right? There must be something there to indicate their alignment, right? So then they look, and usually they find something, and usually it's negative. 

I basically agree with this. It's come and gone as a problem before, and usually it's been solved just by having a more conscious awareness and calling it out when it happens - in other words, making the targeting of active players more frowned upon in the SE meta. There's an old post by Meta a previous time when this was a major issue which I want to post, but I can't find it, which is annoying me.