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Mid-Range Game 48: The Southern Wind


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10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

No, no, Illwei you're supposed to bus Connie, not me!

haha :P.

I don't like how Quinn changed her attitude? ...not right word. D1 after I pointed it out. felt like what happened in QF50 with breaker.

Her handling of the whole Liranil thing on D1 was weird to me, as she threw out this "Liranil/TUO e/e" thing and then dissappeared, only to reappear later and switch to TUO. I don't like e/e parirings so early if you're willing to be so careless about which one dies. because usually it doesn't just go both ways and there's one who's more likely.

She then does a 180 over night (...there are no nights, so uh idk) and then starts defending Liranil once Liranil actually gets pressured.

I think her wallposts are points in her favor...in part? I don't remember her doing posts like that as Village, but also the points that she made in those posts weren't incredibly villager-y to me.

Her reads list also has only one other Elim on it, and she isn't even voting on them, not even when I already voted on them first :P.  And all of her reads, though assigned an actual read, are incredibly wishy-washy and they all seem to be "buuuuut I can change it real soon if you want me to".

Sigh.

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57 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't like how Quinn changed her attitude? ...not right word. D1 after I pointed it out. felt like what happened in QF50 with breaker.

I genuinely don't remember you pointing it out... I spent the first couple of cycles struggling to stay engaged in this game and I'm not totally sure why. Over the weekend, especially, I was really exhausted for some reason? Anyway that's why the way I'm playing changed at the end of last cycle. 

58 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Her handling of the whole Liranil thing on D1 was weird to me, as she threw out this "Liranil/TUO e/e" thing and then dissappeared, only to reappear later and switch to TUO. I don't like e/e parirings so early if you're willing to be so careless about which one dies. because usually it doesn't just go both ways and there's one who's more likely.

Again, struggling to engage. Wanted to vote someone. etc.

58 minutes ago, Illwei said:

She then does a 180 over night (...there are no nights, so uh idk) and then starts defending Liranil once Liranil actually gets pressured.

My only reason for voting her C1 was how fast TUO responded to the vote on her. Once TUO flipped vil, that connection disappeared, and I'd never had an elim read on Liranil in the first place. So I was back to square 1 null with her. And then I read her posts last cycle and they read village to me. So yeah, I admit that my reason for voting her, and later TUO, in C1 was dumb--but again, I was kinda out of it for C1 : P

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I think her wallposts are points in her favor...in part? I don't remember her doing posts like that as Village, but also the points that she made in those posts weren't incredibly villager-y to me.

I've definitely done wallposts as vil... but I do them as elim too, so they're kinda NAI for me at this point.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Her reads list also has only one other Elim on it, and she isn't even voting on them, not even when I already voted on them first :P.  And all of her reads, though assigned an actual read, are incredibly wishy-washy and they all seem to be "buuuuut I can change it real soon if you want me to".

...well yeah, they were wishy washy. It was C2, in a game where no one had said much of anything. Like, half the people on Liranil's list had less than five posts. How am I supposed to construct concrete reads from that? Also, note that at the time I wrote that I was thinking of it as an in-case-I-die kind of thing. The reasoning I had on Ash was basically that he's acting the way he did in the AG, but the problem there is that he said he would be less active this game, and at any rate his actions in the AG weren't that dissimilar to his village play, so at this point I'm not sure he's even worth following through on.

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5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I've definitely done wallposts as vil... but I do them as elim too, so they're kinda NAI for me at this point.

>> I meant to say Elim there >>

I don't remember you doing wallposts like that as Elim, but your points aren't incredibly villager-y. Sorry, my mind isn't completely here :P.

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Just now, Quintessential said:

QF50. I had a lot of wallposts in QF50. : P

They felt different though, they were more talking less quotes

Legit wondering if all the Elims are just silent rn and we're handling their ML for them >>

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*rubs eyes* okay so I just read back through the past two cycles and this one (sort of) focusing on votes. I don't know how useful my analysis of it actually is but I figure I'll post it here. Please don't yell at me for mostly assuming myself vil : P you can just omit that from my analyses if you want.

Spoiler

First (and really only) major conclusion is that there is no way that more than one of [Liranil, Illwei, Matrim] is elim. Actually, for all of you viewers at home, I'll add myself in there too: there is no way that more than one of [Liranil, Illwei, Matrim, Quinn] is elim. Here's why:

  • Illwei/Matrim are definitely not e/e. No way. They've both been too willing to exe each other this entire time. They keep switching back and forth between voting each other and voting me <_< Mat is currently trying to convince me in our PM that I should switch to voting Illwei with him, which is actually what got me to look into this in the first place.
  • Matrim/Liranil are not e/e. They both voted for each other and argued for each other's exe in C1 and most of C2--and then Liranil did that analysis post in which she listed Matrim as her top sus--and he responded by saying he read her vil? idk, the whole thing was weird but they definitely don't fell e/e.

  • Illwei/Liranil are... well, I'm going to say they're not e/e for now but I guess they could be if they're trying to do some serious distancing? idk. But anyway, same deal here--keeping voting for each other, Illwei sussing me for trusting Liranil, etc. So with those three conclusions, you cannot have more than one of [Matrim, Illwei, Liranil] be elim. Doesn't necessarily mean that any of them are. But still. Not more than one.

  • Adding myself on there because all three of them have been happy to exe me at various points in time. Or, well, definitely Illwei and Matrim--like I said, they keep switching between voting me and voting each other. And, I mean, I was perfectly happy to exe Liranil C1 though no one seems to believe me on that and I'm guessing she would have exed me without complaint C2 if Brighteyes hadn't become an option...

  • Okay, so having looked at that, it might be more useful (and obvious) to the viewers at home that there's no way any of me/Illwei/Mat are e/e together, and Liranil is really just an afterthought.

 

Spoiler

I also looked at poke-votes, because why not, right? (purple = I know they're vil)

Matrim poke-voted Bard.
Archer poke-voted Orlok.
Illwei poke-voted Quinn.
Bard poke-voted Archer.
Bard poke-voted Random.
Illwei poke-voted Reading.
Liranil poke-voted Kings.

Obviously poke-voting is a great way to distance yourself from elim teammates, but at the same time I actually... haven't... seen that happen too often? dunno, but it's not something I see much. So I have tentatively marked:

Matrim/Bard not e/e
Bard/Random not e/e
Illwei/Reading not e/e
Liranil/Kings not e/e

Brighteyes also (kinda) poked Ash in C2 but we know she's vil so no non-e/e pair to draw from that lol

 

Spoiler

I know Illwei already put together a VC analysis kinda thing but whatever (once again, purple = I know they're vil)

C1:
TUO (4): Liranil, Quinn, TJ, Bard
Liranil (2): Matrim, TUO
Matrim (1): Illwei
Orlok/Connie (1): Archer
Bard (1): Dannex

Conclusions from this: well, I'd find it weird that the TUO train would have no elims on it, though not impossible. So at least one of [Liranil, Bard] is elim? Not sure. Matrim's vote on Liranil and Illwei's vote on Matrim are (a very small) part of why I think neither of those pairs are e/e. I do find it somewhat odd--and by odd I mean familiar, and by familiar I mean something-elim!me-has-done-before--that Illwei voted on someone who was never actually an exe candidate, and left her vote there to the end. Mildly assuming that Dannex/Bard are not e/e given Dannex's suspicion of Bard for the whole Archer mixup. Also, did anyone else notice that Archer, who was NKd that cycle, voted on Orlok? Yes, it was just a poke, but Archer never removed it... hmmm mild sus on Connie for this? Nah, probably too tinfoily : P

C2:
Brighteyes (4): Ashbringer, Liranil, Matrim, Quinn
Quinn (4): Brighteyes, Illwei, TJ, Bard

Conclusions: less to look at here. I'd be surprised if at least one of Ash/Liranil/Matrim isn't elim, but again, it could happen. What's more interesting to me is that Illwei and Bard are the only two not-confirmed-villagers on me. And Bard was on TUO as well. Bard has basically just been sheeping the main trains without actually... providing many thoughts? idk, I've literally never played with Bard before so maybe that's normal for them, but it... seems... really odd to me. Also more sus of Illwei based on the votes... but I'm not sure... hmmm

Okay, so people I'm currently suspicious of: Illwei and Young Bard for voting patterns. Kings for the (admittedly kinda small) reason that I'm voting them for. Ash for... idk I still read him null elim XD there's nothing much to go off of... except for A. what I said about him last cycle and this cycle and B. he actually... makes a lot of sense as e/e with Illwei? I mean, he and Illwei have studiously ignored each other up until now--or rather, Ash has been mostly inactive and Illwei has ignored him completely except to call me out for my read on him being wishy washy?--but then Illwei lists him third on her list of people-I'd-be-down-to-exe-today? Before Matrim, whom she's been sussing this entire game? (edit: even though she doesn't want to exe inactives, and Ash basically is one?) I'm kind of confused by that, and I find it hard not to see as distancing.

But y'know what, @Matrim's Dice? I think I'll vote on Illwei after all. Let's see how this goes...

(in case it wasn't clear, I'm currently theorizing/tinfoiling an Illwei/Bard/Ash/Kings elim team. If Illwei flips vil that basically dismantles the Ash part, though I'd still look into Bard and maybe Kings more closely)

Edited by Quintessential
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Illwei: Please don't try to kill me until next cycle pwease
Quinn: >:)

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

but then Illwei lists him third on her list of people-I'd-be-down-to-exe-today? Before Matrim, whom she's been sussing this entire game? I'm kind of confused by that, and I find it hard not to see as distancing.

It's not in order :P. And you might as well then say that I'm e/e with Gears, yet you strangely don't mention him at all?

6 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

What's more interesting to me is that Illwei and Bard are the only two not-confirmed-villagers on me.

Can you explain...why this is interesting to you? Can I say I find it interesting that Ash, Liranil, and Matrim are the only not-confirmed villagers on Brighteyes? yeah but it don't mean nothing more than "they suspected Brighteyes over Quinn". And I didn't think that Brighteyes was an Elim, because all of her posts which you said had nothing in them, actually did have things in them, and they'd apparently been contributing more than RBy...eeeeven if we hadn't realized it at the time of her posts :P.

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

except to call me out for my read on him being wishy washy?

All of your reads were wishy-washy. Ash was your only living Elim read, and you just...go and ignore him this round. That's what I didn't like about that. Because Ash in his Elim games has always been popping up from time to time, and saying something like "man, I'm not very helpful am I?" and that's what he's done in this game so far. And you have him down as a wishy-washy Elim read? and then don't pressure that at all, just let it sit there not meaning anything.

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Just now, Illwei said:

It's not in order :P. And you might as well then say that I'm e/e with Gears, yet you strangely don't mention him at all?

Right, I could, and if you flip elim I'll certainly look into him as well! Thank you for reminding me to write that down :) but my point with emphasizing Ash is that A. I'm currently reading Gears slight vil for some reason (though who knows how trustworthy my reads on Gears are...) and Ash slight elim and B. Ash voted for Brighteyes last cycle, and is the only person to do so whom I think could be elim at this point. I have a hard time seeing either Mat or Liranil as elim right now, and I have a hard time seeing the Brighteyes train as entirely vil.

Also, why didn't you put it in order? That's just... really confusing : P and I assumed it was in order since you put the person you're voting for (me) at the top.

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can you explain...why this is interesting to you? Can I say I find it interesting that Ash, Liranil, and Matrim are the only not-confirmed villagers on Brighteyes? yeah but it don't mean nothing more than "they suspected Brighteyes over Quinn". 

Okay I'm... very very confused by this. You just asked me why I didn't consider the [Ash, Liranil, Matrim] thing more carefully and then immediately gave me reasons why it wouldn't be very useful? I agree, on its own it's not useful, which is why I didn't look at it on its own. 

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

And I didn't think that Brighteyes was an Elim, because all of her posts which you said had nothing in them, actually did have things in them, and they'd apparently been contributing more than RBy...eeeeven if we hadn't realized it at the time of her posts :P.

I didn't say Brighteyes' posts had nothing in them? That wasn't why I was sus of her. I thought a couple of timing things were odd--her asking for a VC out of nowhere and then not saying anything about it or voting, her choosing to vote someone who hadn't been talking a lot immediately after a bunch of us started saying that "hey, maybe none of us are elim!" and so on. 

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

All of your reads were wishy-washy. Ash was your only living Elim read, and you just...go and ignore him this round.

A. I've already explained this, which by the way you didn't respond to at all : P and B. obviously I'm not ignoring him this round. Not anymore, at least. Given that he's said so little I wasn't going to start the round off with a vote on him--I intended to go back and look at him more closely first, which I've now done.

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Because Ash in his Elim games has always been popping up from time to time, and saying something like "man, I'm not very helpful am I?" and that's what he's done in this game so far. And you have him down as a wishy-washy Elim read? and then don't pressure that at all, just let it sit there not meaning anything.

The problem with me just solid elim-reading him from that is that he does that in vil games too. He got exed for it in QF50, in case you've forgotten that. Hence the null elim read originally. Also, if you've found it so sus that he's been popping in and out without saying much, then how come you haven't mentioned it before now? Iirc your post 2 hours ago was the first time you ever even mentioned your suspicion of him, and before that I had the impression that you were vil-reading him, and sussing me in part because I had him down as null elim for what you considered flimsy reasoning? Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but that's what it seemed like to me. 

Also, I know I get called out for assuming other people play elim the way I do--in a similar vein, Illwei, please stop assuming that I play vil the way you do, because I don't. I have far less exposure to forum mafia than you do and this site is far chiller than some of the ones you play on, so I'm still a little new to what I'm supposed to do with reads, or what counts as a wishy-washy read, or at what point I should just make up my mind and vote on someone. 

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Alright, cool...

32 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Please don't yell at me for mostly assuming myself vil : P you can just omit that from my analyses if you want.

If you didn't I'd probably pay less attention to your analysis and just vote on you :P 

33 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

First (and really only) major conclusion is that there is no way that more than one of [Liranil, Illwei, Matrim] is elim. Actually, for all of you viewers at home, I'll add myself in there too: there is no way that more than one of [Liranil, Illwei, Matrim, Quinn] is elim.

This automatically kinda turns me off because I'm looking at a Illwei/Liranil team. But before I judge too harshly I better read what you have to say about that...

34 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Illwei/Matrim are definitely not e/e.

Matrim/Liranil are not e/e.

Yep yep on the same page here. I'm village :P 

36 minutes ago, Quintessential said:
  • Illwei/Liranil are... well, I'm going to say they're not e/e for now but I guess they could be if they're trying to do some serious distancing? idk. But anyway, same deal here--keeping voting for each other, Illwei sussing me for trusting Liranil, etc. So with those three conclusions, you cannot have more than one of [Matrim, Illwei, Liranil] be elim. Doesn't necessarily mean that any of them are. But still. Not more than one.

Here though... reading Illwei's first (second?) post of this cycle I'm not too sure. And considering the votes they had on each other- they didn't stick. Out of you three (for me that's Illwei, Liranil, Quinn) if any two are teammates it's definitely Illwei and Liranil.

38 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Obviously poke-voting is a great way to distance yourself from elim teammates, but at the same time I actually... haven't... seen that happen too often? dunno, but it's not something I see much. So I have tentatively marked:

Hmmmm I kinda hard-disagree with this one. It's interesting to note the parings of the poke votes but I wouldn't say even tentatively that any of those pairings aren't e/e (except the ones with me, of course :P)

40 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

 purple = I know they're vil

Why not green .-.

40 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Conclusions from this: well, I'd find it weird that the TUO train would have no elims on it, though not impossible. So at least one of [Liranil, Bard] is elim? Not sure.

See? Illwei/Liranil! :P 

41 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

hmmm mild sus on Connie for this? Nah, probably too tinfoily : P

Yeah there's no reason to. The elims wouldn't kill someone solely because they poke voted a teammate.

42 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Conclusions: less to look at here. I'd be surprised if at least one of Ash/Liranil/Matrim isn't elim

Liranillllllllllll

42 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Bard has basically just been sheeping the main trains without actually... providing many thoughts? idk, I've literally never played with Bard before so maybe that's normal for them, but it... seems... really odd to me.

Yeah this is the other thing. Like it might not be Liranil and instead be Bard xD Cause he's been basically sheeping/mirroring alll my reads so it could be an attempt to pocket. But I don't think I've played with Bard either, at least not for a very long time. I think he played the Korathi QF? But again, with Illwei and Bard both the two non-confirmed vil on you, would they both be on you if they were teammates?

45 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

(in case it wasn't clear, I'm currently theorizing/tinfoiling an Illwei/Bard/Ash/Kings elim team. If Illwei flips vil that basically dismantles the Ash part, though I'd still look into Bard and maybe Kings more closely)

It seems plausible... but I still don't really think Ash is there... it's a good point about the possible distancing, though.

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1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

Okay I'm... very very confused by this. You just asked me why I didn't consider the [Ash, Liranil, Matrim] thing more carefully and then immediately gave me reasons why it wouldn't be very useful? I agree, on its own it's not useful, which is why I didn't look at it on its own. 

?? but you mentioned it on it's own? what???

"What's more interesting to me is that Illwei and Bard are the only two not-confirmed-villagers on me. And Bard was on TUO as well. Bard has basically just been sheeping the main trains without actually... providing many thoughts? idk, I've literally never played with Bard before so maybe that's normal for them, but it... seems... really odd to me. Also more sus of Illwei based on the votes... but I'm not sure... hmmm"

You don't address why you think it's interesting? you just say it is, because it is. that's...not an answer???

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I didn't say Brighteyes' posts had nothing in them? That wasn't why I was sus of her. I thought a couple of timing things were odd--her asking for a VC out of nowhere and then not saying anything about it or voting, her choosing to vote someone who hadn't been talking a lot immediately after a bunch of us started saying that "hey, maybe none of us are elim!" and so on. 

Really thought it was just TJ saying "hey! maybe none of you are Elims!" but that's also kinda irrelevant to this :P.

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

A. I've already explained this, which by the way you didn't respond to at all : P and B. obviously I'm not ignoring him this round. Not anymore, at least. Given that he's said so little I wasn't going to start the round off with a vote on him--I intended to go back and look at him more closely first, which I've now done.

Where did you address this?

And also then what? I get that most of my votes are for pressure, and that not everyone plays like me, but... ? I guess I can call that a playstyle difference there, but I like starting cycles off with a vote :P.

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

The problem with me just solid elim-reading him from that is that he does that in vil games too. He got exed for it in QF50, in case you've forgotten that. Hence the null elim read originally. Also, if you've found it so sus that he's been popping in and out without saying much, then how come you haven't mentioned it before now? Iirc your post 2 hours ago was the first time you ever even mentioned your suspicion of him, and before that I had the impression that you were vil-reading him, and sussing me in part because I had him down as null elim for what you considered flimsy reasoning? Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but that's what it seemed like to me. 

He didn't get killed for that in QF50??? not at all???

1) the train on him was started by striker, An Elim
2) at least my vote had nothing to do with that? it's that there was v/e between you two because something felt fake, and i misinterpreted that as him. Nothing to do with inactivity/not helping, because he did analysis in that game.

Since when was I vil reading him? I will admit I'd been talking to TJ about game thoughts more than I had in thread because it's easier, so maybe I said somethigng wacky in thread and didn't realize it- but... ?? Suspicions have to start somewhere, so the fact that you're just like "where did this suspicion come from, huh?" is like ??? to me because >..I read the thread, and then was like, Ash kinda suspicious here. And that's where suspicions come from :P.

Yeah I sussed you for having him in your Elim reads, but that was legit like a few hours ago, no? and it was wishy washy reasoning. and. all. your. reads. I'm not the one fixating on the Ash read, you are. all of your reads were flimsy, Ash was just your only Elim read.

With that replies will be few and far between, it being 9pm est now. Honestly maybe killing me will make my life easier but at the same time I'm not gonna gamethrow like that lmao

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3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This automatically kinda turns me off because I'm looking at a Illwei/Liranil team. But before I judge too harshly I better read what you have to say about that...

lol yeah no I looked at it a little more closely and was like hmmm wait that could work. For now I don't think Liranil's elim but I wouldn't be averse to looking back at her later on.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Here though... reading Illwei's first (second?) post of this cycle I'm not too sure. And considering the votes they had on each other- they didn't stick. Out of you three (for me that's Illwei, Liranil, Quinn) if any two are teammates it's definitely Illwei and Liranil.

Well, or me and Liranil : P since I have no way of proving I actually intended to exe her C1... but yeah. That makes sense.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmmmm I kinda hard-disagree with this one. It's interesting to note the parings of the poke votes but I wouldn't say even tentatively that any of those pairings aren't e/e (except the ones with me, of course :P)

I ended up not using that section for any of my final conclusions but I stuck it in there in case someone else found it helpful or something : P

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why not green .-.

Because green's a color that actually means something when used on living players (such as myself). Wasn't sure it would be alright to use it.

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But again, with Illwei and Bard both the two non-confirmed vil on you, would they both be on you if they were teammates?

But would they have realized it would end up that way? They were voting on me, indicating they intended me to die and not Brighteyes (whether as elims or village is still in question obviously). And if they'd chosen TJ as the kill early on in the cycle, then they might not have noticed that he also had a vote on me. Besides, the conclusions of that are dependent on me being vil, which you seem to have forgotten is still technically unknown for everyone but me.

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It seems plausible... but I still don't really think Ash is there... it's a good point about the possible distancing, though.

Yeah, and Gears as well. Though. Idk. I don't see that being a thing tbh XD but it could be.

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3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Besides, the conclusions of that are dependent on me being vil, which you seem to have forgotten is still technically unknown for everyone but me.

I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and directly replying to your reasoning, which omitted you :P But yes.

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