Mid-Range Game 48: The Southern Wind

[Quintessential]

Oops I was gonna put a comprehensive reads list at the bottom of that post but forgot  I'll wait until someone posts and then send this:

• Liranil: Village. Liranil's reads post, her affirmation of having taking notes, her explanation of her vote last cycle, and just my general read of her all suggest to me that she's village. 
• TJ Shade: Mild village. This is mostly based on his post looking at the interactions between Matrim, Liranil, and Illwei, but also just a general feel that he's trying to solve. Of course, my tinfoil brain keeps telling me that his suggestion last cycle that there aren't many roles is indicative of TMI, but I'm ignoring that for the moment lol
• Matrim's Dice: Null/mild Village. I can't point to any specific posts or anything, but Matrim feels normal. Yeah. That's basically it. I don't know what elim!Matrim looks like from a village perspective but I don't... think? it's this? lol
• Dannex: Null village. This is mostly based on the fact that Dannex severely overestimated the number of roles in the game. I'd guess that the elims are aware that there aren't that many, and have been aware from the start--I'm thinking two vanilla elims at this point? Or maybe just one if they only have less powerful roles. Anyway, the overestimation could be fabricated but I think it's just indicative of a lack of TMI.
• Illwei: Null village. On the one hand, I have no actual read of Illwei, which maybe should concern me? But on the other hand she seems normal. And yes I know that I listed Matrim as null/mild and not null even though the reason for it is the same but that's just a gut thing I think.
• Young Bard: Null village. This is purely for the C1 messup about Archer. I do think that an elim would try to be more cautious and not miss anything, to avoid drawing attention to themself. But that's quite a small thing.
• Gears: Null. Everyone else who I read as null, I'm not going to list individually, but I will just mention (once again) that I'm pretty sure that Gears is the Doctor. No idea how to read Gears, but maybe someone else here can? Do with that what you will, ig.
• Ashbringer: Null elim. Ash's lack of engagement with the game, except through RP, concerns me somewhat. That is, after all, how he played most/all of the AG, which is the only elim game I've seen him in. On the other hand, though, Ash always focuses a lot more on RP... so maybe this should be null, idk.
• BrightEyes2: Elim. I've already listed the reasons, but here they are: Brighteyes didn't say anything during the first cycle except through RP, until right at the very end where they asked for a VC (and then didn't vote afterwards). This cycle, they seem to be pushing for a focus on me/Illwei/Matrim, and at this point I'm starting to think that none of the three of us is elim. They also ended up voting on Ash, which seems like the kind of thing an elim would do in order to get away with not taking a strong stance on one of the main (village) exe candidates. 

Everyone else is null, having not posted nearly enough (or at least, not recently enough) for me to be able to figure them out.

[Liranil]

12 hours ago, Illwei said:

Unlike Matrim, I'm not a huge fan of the explanation here. The fact that she emphasized "I didn't vote for selfpres" doesn't make that much sense to me, because it feels like she's trying to get the guilt or whatnot off of her for TUOs death. I don't understand how this "pings village" :P.

I get what you're saying here, but I didn't say that I didn't vote for self-pres... double negative. I said that I voted for self-pres, but that there was more to it, too. I don't deny that it was partially self-preservation. Just that I was also a little suspicious of them. 

4 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I can easily see it coming from a villager trying to find something to say or to pump up the conversation, so... yeah.

Yeah, that was pretty much why I did it. I'm getting frustrated by the lack of activity (which has recently gotten a little better but still).

13 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Then why mention it in your elim read of me?

I really should have been more clear with my post, I guess. I went back through C1 and took notes on everyone's actions, and I just included the most notable actions in my post. That one could go either way (elim or suspicious crewmate) so I included it.

3 hours ago, Quintessential said:

I mean... obviously not since you now read some people as village?

Ooo tinfoil opportunity! Archer was an elim--the elims decided to do a C1 WGG, where an elim!SecurityGuard protected Archer while they attacked him. But they also sabotaged the Brig, not realizing that that would block their Guard's action, so Archer died! lol sorry don't listen to me I like tinfoil : P

Well, shaky village, but sure. I like the complicated tinfoil. XD 

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I feel like I'm just gonna come back to her over and over again so it might be best to exe her so my reads can get a fresh start based on her alignment  

I hate to say, but I do understand. Sometimes it just helps to know for sure.

59 minutes ago, Gears said:

There are scant few hours left, and I don't know who to slaughter. Perhaps I will abstain because I have seen no reason to act. 

I shall reevaluate role numbers in view of the fact that there is only the one Doctor. [As an aside, my good friend Quinn has challenged me to a bet, and I must ask the Good Doctor to act in a manner that I never would. Perhaps use strange esoteric "modern slang" or emoticons or other such things. Act in a manner that decidedly proves that you are not I and I am not you. I thank you in advance]

First assumption: All roles are on the ship. Second assumption: The distribution is not absurd. 

Aviar Holder: Perhaps only one, maybe two if it's split between the Crew and the Saboteurs [as an aside, "saboteur" is such a delightful word. Rolls off the tongue like warm honey]. 

Biologist: I think only one, though the faction remains unknown, leaning towards Crew. I doubt there will be two, but it's possible in the event of split faction.

Bookkeeper: One or two for the Crew, maybe 2-1.

Doctor: Confirmed to be one from the Hospital Log. Unknown faction.

Messenger: One or two, at least one Crew.

Security Officer: One, Crew. 

Trapper: One, Crew. 

As a conclusion, 7-10 people likely have roles. I would expect 4 Saboteurs under this expectation with 1 powerful role or 2 weaker ones. Perhaps 4 with Aviar Holder or Bookkeeper. Alternatively, a powerful team of 3. Perhaps all with roles. Some of Aviar Holder, Bookkeeper, Doctor, Messenger?

I lack comprehension of why anyone is voting on anyone else. People who are voting, I request that you inform me as to this fact.

This strikes me as off. You're doing another role analysis (which doesn't really help us figure anything out, since we've already established that a lot of the roles could go either way, elim or village) and not really talking about what's happened? That just seems odd to me. Also, if you're looking for a summary, several people have put their thoughts on this page.

39 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

What comment on Order? Sorry, I've honestly not been paying much attention to the game this cycle (up until now) so I may have missed some things : P

I mean, I believe it's been mentioned before that Straw is a fan of RNG? Or maybe that was in a PM last cycle. Anyway, if the elim team ended up RNGd as entirely people who aren't very talkative, then Straw might not have changed it. Illwei, Matrim, and I always say a lot. Obviously one of us could be elim (or two of us, or all three ) but I don't think it's necessarily a good idea to assume that (and not just because I'm currently on the chopping block XD I'm not willing to vote Matrim or Illwei yet either--they seem fairly normal so far).

This reads elim to meeee... The first part, that is. It basically just... summarizes what all of us already know? it's a very brief overview of the first part of the cycle, with no opinions given. It makes me wonder... idk, if Brighteyes is elim then I'd be less likely to think that any of me, Matrim, or Illwei are elim. It's like they're trying to focus suspicion on us, which (if we're all vil) makes perfect sence for elim!them to do. And yeah, votes in early cycles are generally placed on the most active players because we're the ones with the most material to be analyzed.

Aaanndd there's a vote on someone for absolutely no reason : P not helping with my read of Brighteyes.

In C1, TUO said that they thought there were 3-4 doctors. Dannex said they agreed, because they thought it would be weird to just have 1-2 docs in a doc by themselves. TUO disagreed with that part, saying a single-person doc wasn't unheard of. Matrim sussed TUO for discounting something that supported their own side. That's a pretty condensed summary.

I actually thought everything was RNG? I didn't know that GMs could change stuff. I mostly was thinking that one of the more active people was an elim because of the conflicting opinions everyone had. 

There's a lot in your post, so if there was a comment on my post that you wanted me to answer, just point it out to me again.

Quinn answered a lot of these too while I was writing this, so if it's repeating what she said... sorry! 

Idk. I'm taking my vote off Matrim. I keep getting ninja'd so I'm going to post this and come back with a vote after I get caught up. I may join in on the BrightEyes vote because while I really like their RP, something about it is off to me. 

I have a lot of homework due tonight so I may be keeping an eye out on here, but @ me if you really want me to see something, since I probably will be skimming more.

Edit: @Straw Can we get a vote count?

Edited February 10, 2021 by Liranil

[BrightEyes2]

Noon found First of the Bone swamped. Literally. The drinking water tanks seemed to have nuts loosed and the precious water was squirting out all over the hold. She left him to his work, walking back to the mess to the rest of the crew. 

She didn't like what was being said. Quinn, though the best they had, was not a good suspect.

I retract my poke vote on Ashbringer . I will vote on someone else later if something of import comes up.

I wrote this just after Ashbringer and am just going to post it. I don't have time right now to respond to Quinn's post but I will try before the cycle ends, if I can't, I will respond after turn over if I am not dead.

 

[---]

3 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Idk, if we do eventually find out that the Doctor is elim, I might look more closely at Matrim, who I guess could easily have not realized that the Hospital doc gets published every cycle.

If we go down this reasoning then might as well look at him more because Elim!Doc!Matrim might have been trying to get discussion going to distract from the fact that he was an Elim!Doctor. And then look at Danex for speculating what roles were on the Elim team to distract from the fact that he's on the Elim team with those roles :P.

45 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Right, I'd say I read Dannex as village just because his crazy overestimations of the number of roles suggest that he doesn't have TMI

I...See above reasoning :P. I don't think that's a good enough reason to clear someone- because when you say "crazy overestimations" that implies to me that might imply that you're overestimating to hide something.

49 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Kings_Way doesn't usually post much, in my experience? I know I've been in games with them before but tbh I don't even remember which XD

I think the point here is more like TJ's brighteyes thing? Kings was lurking obviously, and his posts were select responses, so the question is why those particular responses in this case. Brushing someone off because "they don't post much" is a reason we have such a great loss streak xD.

54 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

or all three 

55 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

You think they are e/e or they aren't? double negative = confusion.

>> My brain works. Definitely. Opened a PM to reply to someone this cycle and It had a saved message of complete gibberish.

NOT E/E. I don't think they're e/e. :P.

56 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Idk, I'd think elims would just say "I voted for selfpres" because then it's an understandable, NAI reason that people can't argue about with you.

36 minutes ago, Liranil said:

I said that I voted for self-pres, but that there was more to it, too. I don't deny that it was partially self-preservation. Just that I was also a little suspicious of them. 

Mmmmm I dissagree. imo Elims feel like they need to justify things more. Placing a vote in self-pres but then being like "oh, no. I was also suspicious of them, that's why I voted" makes less sense to me. Especially in Liranil's case when she didn't express that before hand, and voted in self-pres near the end of the cycle.

Liranil, that's it though :P. the fact that you're saying it wasn't just self pres, as if you feel the need to justify it more.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

That too. The village part of that was (to me, at least?) the bit about taking notes. Because idk about you, but I definitely don't take notes on people as elim--I don't have to. I already know everyone's alignment so it's just a matter of figuring out who I want to be right about and who I want to be wrong about, and how to substantiate those things.

I'm definitely different than that as an Elim :P. Yeah, you know everyone's alignment, but you still have to have some sort of trackable progression on your reads? So it's a lot easier to take notes and make reads on people as if I was village rather than come up with things on who I want to push :P. Maybe I play Elim wrong, who knows.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Aaanndd there's a vote on someone for absolutely no reason : P not helping with my read of Brighteyes.

Not for no reason? I didn't read the RP at first, but she's saying that she doesn't know why Ash is being minimally active, and throwing shade on that.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

I was planning to just not self-pres and let this post speak for me once I flip village,

Yo I had to talk to matrim about this already, I don't need to lecture you as well, do I? :P.

44 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

On the one hand, I have no actual read of Illwei, which maybe should concern me? But on the other hand she seems normal. And yes I know that I listed Matrim as null/mild and not null even though the reason for it is the same but that's just a gut thing I think.

;-;. It doesn't feel like I'm trying to solve? ;-;.

42 minutes ago, Liranil said:

I actually thought everything was RNG? I didn't know that GMs could change stuff. I mostly was thinking that one of the more active people was an elim because of the conflicting opinions everyone had. 

I mean, from what I know, GMs sometimes rng multiple distros and then choose one of them, or I think someone was talking in the Discord about RNGing and then allowing themselves one Edit? I really don't like speculating in-game about who you think the GMs would have assigned a specific role/alignment- it's RNG. :P.

45 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Quinn answered a lot of these too while I was writing this, so if it's repeating what she said... sorry! 

hm

Thoughts:

Liranil/Quinn probably not e/e, but-
-Quinn/Liranil feels e/v with how Quinn is sticking up for Liranil so much.
TJ/Quinn not e/e :P.
Mat/Quinn not e/e.

Quinn

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Hi all. Has been a busy and torrid few days. I'll be more likely to be around tomorrow, but if Straw has a pinch hitter lined up, please do replace me.

[Quintessential]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If we go down this reasoning then might as well look at him more because Elim!Doc!Matrim might have been trying to get discussion going to distract from the fact that he was an Elim!Doctor. And then look at Danex for speculating what roles were on the Elim team to distract from the fact that he's on the Elim team with those roles :P.

I don't know for sure that the Doctor is Gears but I'm positive that they're not Matrim. I have never seen Matrim talk as formally as the person in the doc did. And yeah, that about Dannex could be true but that's too tinfoily to actually base a read on. 

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I...See above reasoning :P. I don't think that's a good enough reason to clear someone- because when you say "crazy overestimations" that implies to me that might imply that you're overestimating to hide something.

I'm not clearing Dannex. I currently consider him null village, a read that could easily change. And in case it wasn't obvious, that's not what I mean by "crazy overestimations." 

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think the point here is more like TJ's brighteyes thing? Kings was lurking obviously, and his posts were select responses, so the question is why those particular responses in this case. Brushing someone off because "they don't post much" is a reason we have such a great loss streak xD.

Yeah ik. Not reading them one way or another for the moment.

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Mmmmm I dissagree. imo Elims feel like they need to justify things more. Placing a vote in self-pres but then being like "oh, no. I was also suspicious of them, that's why I voted" makes less sense to me. Especially in Liranil's case when she didn't express that before hand, and voted in self-pres near the end of the cycle.

I mean, idk about everyone else but if I'm vil and I have to vote selfpres, it helps to convince me to do it if I also suspect the person I'd be voting on. Then again, I have chosen not to self-pres before (as village) in cases where I didn't think the other options were elim, so maybe that's just me.

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Not for no reason? I didn't read the RP at first, but she's saying that she doesn't know why Ash is being minimally active, and throwing shade on that.

It was the timing of it that I thought was odd--guess I should have clarified that. Brighteyes only posted that vote on Ash after a couple of people started saying that maybe none of me, you, Matrim are elim, when previously she had said that she thought one of us was.

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yo I had to talk to matrim about this already, I don't need to lecture you as well, do I? :P.

Probably  

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

;-;. It doesn't feel like I'm trying to solve? ;-;.

*rubs eyes* maybe it does? keep in mind that the only part of the game that I've read and analyzed thoroughly is this page and last page. During which you weren't so much analyzing as arguing. Which is normal for you also XD but... yeah. 

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

-Quinn/Liranil feels e/v with how Quinn is sticking up for Liranil so much.

What happens when I flip vil?

[Liranil]

I think Quinn's ahead by a lot in the vote? @Straw? Which I don't like a whole lot. Maybe Quinn has me pocketed but their analysis posts just seem to village to me. BrightEyes has just been seeming off to me so I'll do that for now.

[danex]

I really have no idea for who to vote this cycle. (also I second the motion that we say 'crewmates' and 'imposters', and I vote we say 'eject' for the exe/shrek/vote kill.)

I kinda think we should leave it up to the gods of luck and chance, because it seems like we're just going back and forth. Although that would probably benefit the elims, since there's less of them.

I think the Elim team is probably laying low rn, most of the active people seem relatively village to me. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Dannex

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Quinn

Hey that opens up a spot! Quinn with more thoughts on that down there *gestures to later in this post*

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

[1]I don't know for sure that the Doctor is Gears but I'm positive that they're not Matrim. I have never seen Matrim talk as formally as the person in the doc did. And yeah, that about Dannex could be true but that's too tinfoily to actually base a read on. 

[2]I'm not clearing Dannex. I currently consider him null village, a read that could easily change. And in case it wasn't obvious, that's not what I mean by "crazy overestimations." 

[1] xD I definitely could fake the formality easily but yeah it's not me. I have a guess I'm pretty sure about though

[2] I actually really liked your Dannex thoughts (this sorta in reply to Illwei as well) so I'm down to agree with you there

9 minutes ago, Dannex said:

I kinda think we should leave it up to the gods of luck and chance, because it seems like we're just going back and forth. Although that would probably benefit the elims, since there's less of them.

Yeah let's not do this xD

---

K

So here is my preferred shrekking order today:

BrightEyes, Illwei, Quinn/Liranil

BrightEyes for reasons already said

Illwei for gut -> Which comes from me disagreeing with them a heck of a lot more than usual, them feeling... different to me somehow (hey, I said it was gut :P) and... something else... Honestly would probably be my first choice but no one else is gonna turn that this fast.

[---]

6 minutes ago, Dannex said:

I kinda think we should leave it up to the gods of luck and chance, because it seems like we're just going back and forth. Although that would probably benefit the elims, since there's less of them.

I think this isn't the right thing to do, especially when you just said that you think the people up right now are village :P. I dislike ties a lot in most cases and leaving it up for chance leaves absolutely zero people satisfied with the outcome imo.

[Ashbringer]

Mat, is your original reasoning for wanting to vote Liranil the fact they mentioned the tiebreaker, or is there something else that I'm not seeing? Because I think I'm standing by that that's the initial impression that Liranil got from MR47. And I don't see what else there is.

Quinn: D1 Quinn had a lot of posts without a lot of analysis, mainly reacting to things. That seems like normal!Quinn to me... the massive posts of D2 do seem to be similar to when Elim!Quinn was up for the exe but I'm awful at telling V!Quinn and E!Quinn apart.

Brighteyes: D1, RP and asked for a vote count with no reason. D2 reacted to 1-2 votes, thought that the Elim team was mostly being quiet, and then voted on me for quietness (uh... yeah. Should be talking more, but don't really have much of an opportunity to fix that today). I feel like BrightEyes' vote on me has merit from me being quiet and RPing, but they've... also been quiet and RPing.

 

Blast it I'm out of time... lunch turned that hour into half an hour.  

BrightEyes. I'd rather not have Quinn die when from what I can see her suspicion is mainly from... her stance on Liranil? No not that, something D1 that I don't have time to go and find- aaaaaaaah.

Unless someone has a question of me in the next 5 minutes that's my last post for the cycle.

[---]

I don't like how little resistance this BE grinch has

[Liranil]

Just now, Illwei said:

I don't like how little resistance this BE grinch has

I think we're way off of Bright Eyes and Quinn, because there hasn't been much resistance for either.

[---]

Just now, Liranil said:

I think we're way off of Bright Eyes and Quinn, because there hasn't been much resistance for either.

Last minute vote switch: Activate! :P. :/.

I disagree here though, because Quinn only got to three votes iirc before Brighteyes picked up. It feels more to me like Brighteyes is Counter-Wagon to get off of Quinn.

[Quintessential]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I disagree here though, because Quinn only got to three votes iirc before Brighteyes picked up. It feels more to me like Brighteyes is Counter-Wagon to get off of Quinn.

I mean, that is partially correct. Given that I'm the one who actually started it. 

[Liranil]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Last minute vote switch: Activate! :P. :/.

I disagree here though, because Quinn only got to three votes iirc before Brighteyes picked up. It feels more to me like Brighteyes is Counter-Wagon to get off of Quinn.

It doesn't make much difference, but I think there were four votes on Quinn. I could have counted wrong though. 

Either way, I don't think many other people are going to jump on in the last thirty minutes.

[---]

Just now, Quintessential said:

I mean, that is partially correct. Given that I'm the one who actually started it. 

TJ started it, then left it alone.

So...you started Brighteyes not because you thought they were suspicious, but becauase you didn't want to die? Trying to self pres earlier into the round is what puts us in these thunderdomes that don't lead anywhere. and if Brighteyes is an Elim, why isn't she voting on you?

Add onto my list of thoughts: Brighteyes/Quinn e/e if Brighteyes flips e

[Quintessential]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So...you started Brighteyes not because you thought they were suspicious, but becauase you didn't want to die? Trying to self pres earlier into the round is what puts us in these thunderdomes that don't lead anywhere. and if Brighteyes is an Elim, why isn't she voting on you?

Has she even been on since the train on her picked up? If not, then there's your answer. If so then I have no idea. And no, the vote on Brighteyes wasn't just a selfpres; like I said, I wasn't planning on voting on anyone until I went through and read the last couple of pages of the cycle more carefully. 

[---]

Just now, Quintessential said:

Has she even been on since the train on her picked up? If not, then there's your answer. If so then I have no idea. And no, the vote on Brighteyes wasn't just a selfpres; like I said, I wasn't planning on voting on anyone until I went through and read the last couple of pages of the cycle more carefully. 

She has though, no?

*checks*

She was on for a bit, but she implied in her most recent post that she thought she was going to die.

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

She was on for a bit, but she implied in her most recent post that she thought she was going to die.

When she posted her most recent post, there was only one vote on her. So idk why she would think that.

[Mat]

34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mat, is your original reasoning for wanting to vote Liranil the fact they mentioned the tiebreaker, or is there something else that I'm not seeing? Because I think I'm standing by that that's the initial impression that Liranil got from MR47. And I don't see what else there is.

Find it here- it's a slightly outdated post, but my thoughts on Liranil haven't changed too much. My read is less evil on her now though than that post suggests.

Hmm through this game I went from

1. TUO/Liranil e/e
2. Liranil/Quinn e/e

Now to BrightEyes/Illwei e/e

Don't ask me :P.

@ me if you want anything I should be on until rollover.

[---]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

@ me if you want anything I should be on until rollover.

@Matrim's Dice I want you to switch to Quinn :P.

Also I want you to not keep assigning these e/e reads that really don't make all that much sense if you really think about them :P.

[Straw]

Vote count as requested:

BrightEyes2 (4): Ashbringer, Liranil, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential
Quintessential (3): Illwei, TJ Shade, Young Bard

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Hi all. Has been a busy and torrid few days. I'll be more likely to be around tomorrow, but if Straw has a pinch hitter lined up, please do replace me.

Okay, I currently have Condensation lined up as a replacement.

[Mat]

Just now, Illwei said:

@Matrim's Dice I want you to switch to Quinn :P.

You don't need to quote and @ me

And no. I trust Quinn slightly more than you for some reason.

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Also I want you to not keep assigning these e/e reads that really don't make all that much sense if you really think about them :P.

This is fair. It's largely me just spitballing my thoughts- I don't consider the pairings super viable and they're certainly flexible. I don't really think about them, that's kinda the point :P. It's why they've changed so much.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You don't need to quote and @ me

You said to @ you smh smh :P.

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't really think about them, that's kinda the point :P.

Wonderful wonderful, keep those coming :P.