Why roshar should attack Scadrial soon and therefore they probably will

[Valigus]

Ok so the wax and Wayne series takes place after the timeskip right?

at the end of Banda of mourning a “faceless immortal” with “softly glowing red eyes” appears that works with the set

which to me sounds like possibly one of the mavset-im especially with its apparent disregard for its own life whcih seems even beyond a kandra, and that normal kandra lack glowing eyes.

It also seems like taravangian as odium will be taking a great deal of interest in the wider cosmere and wants dalinar as his champion to affect it.

on top of this the set is 110% odiums style they seem very similar to the diagram in a lot of ways.

additionally Scadrial is a very easy target for odium like very very easy. Because the difference in caliber between troops and generals and everything is so vast it’s not even funny.

Why it’s an easy target-
1. have no supply lines: you can’t cut them off, you can’t starve them, you can’t do anything to this, Scadrial needs to transport food and materials vast distances and if the rosharans seize the trains game over.

this advantage is worth more than any other

2. Radiants: the power level between a radiant and nearly any thing Scadrial can deploy is nearly insurmountable. Only a twin born could hope to match one of the more advanced radiants and depending on who was the twin born and who was the radiant since its possibles fifth ideal radiant with enough skill potentially szeth or kaladin at the fifth ideal would be able to beat a full born who wasn’t particularly adept with their powers or was overconfident.

additionally radiants are far more useful to an army then metalborn, the ability to fly with allows them to scout better, their ability to make instant fortifications using soul casting and stonewards or willshapers, the ability to heal people and fool the enemy with illusions are all insanely useful powers and we haven’t even seen what dustbringers can do but based on what we know they are probably just straight up tanks as in shardplate plus massive destruction=literal tank

3. experience: the troops on roshar are probably the most experienced, disciplined  mortal troops we have seen in the entire cosmere. They have advanced tactics, troops who are disciplined enough to face down the what they believe are demons and not retreat.

4. shardbearers- the greatest warrior in scadriels known history has the feats equivalent of a skilled shardbearer 

5. generals- Scadrial has no generals in fact I’d doubt it even has proper tactics detailed anywhere at least in the areas we know well because there hasn’t been a war in 300 years and nobody knows how to fight one. 

6. aluminum- we know that soulcasters can create aluminum which means that they have the easiest acess to aluminum out of any world we have seen.

Another important thing that provides another very good reason to attack Scadrial before anywhere else

1. the advantage in terms of commanders and experience disciplined troops will not last long, if they get a good taste of war they could with their tech become a legitimate threat to roshar so it’s prudent to take them out as early as possible.

2. guns: while many people will argue that guns are a reason Scadrial is dangerous and a tougher target then I may be making it out to be, you are only kinda right, because here’s the thing guns are exactly why roshar should attack Scadrial. 

guns are essentially the only advantage Scadrial has in terms of the military against other cosmere worlds especially roshar. 
metalborn are simply not numerous or dangerous enough to be a reliable source of military might rn and on top of that largely their powers are fairly useless unless deployed on a truly massive scale are nowhere near as helpful as the powers of radiants on the battlefield.

So guns, if roshar attacks Scadrial and honestly they wouldn’t even need to invade they would just have to get to the planet kidnap some gunsmiths, engineers, scientists etc and grab a few crates of guns maybe a train car full and suddenly the pure insanity begins, if they managed to get ranette or aluminum guns they would be unstoppable.

Imagine a group of edgedancer and a bondsmith working around the clock to soulcast perfect high quality aluminum gun components and suddenly the whole rosharan army is armed to the teeth and now there is 0 advantage to Scadrial and roshar is free to role over the cosmere.

 

Basically- Scadrial is a very easy target for roshar rn but won’t remain so for long on top of maybe wanting to deal with the ghost bloods if they manage to get access to guns they will be the most dangerous army in the cosmere by far. If they even say idk kidnapped metalborn and bred them or used hemalurgy and had acess to three magic systems it would be insane.

also the set is very similar to the diagram which makes me think taravangian may be responsible.

[Kingsdaughter613]

The problem is that Radiants can’t leave Roshar. So that eliminates them as a potential threat for now.

[teknopathetic]

11 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

The problem is that Radiants can’t leave Roshar. So that eliminates them as a potential threat for now.

They can't leave right now. There is evidence that this issue will be solved. I can't give spoilers, but Brandon's latest reading from a First of the Sun sequel sheds some light on this issue. 

[Kingsdaughter613]

6 minutes ago, teknopathetic said:

They can't leave right now. There is evidence that this issue will be solved. I can't give spoilers, but Brandon's latest reading from a First of the Sun sequel sheds some light on this issue. 

Yes. Of course solving that problem would also solve Thaidakar’s, which has not been solved by BoM. It likely also wouldn’t free the Bondsmiths.

For everyone else, you’d need to convince the Spren to play along. And you’d still have to deal with Kelsier being Fullborn and his ability to give other people those abilities. It takes time to get an army together; he could probably arrange a fairly decent defense during that time by reclaiming his Southern throne. And he’d also have the GBs running sabotage with Raysium knives and anti-light the entire time.

[Frustration]

7 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Yes. Of course solving that problem would also solve Thaidakar’s, which has not been solved by BoM. It likely also wouldn’t free the Bondsmiths.

For everyone else, you’d need to convince the Spren to play along. And you’d still have to deal with Kelsier being Fullborn and his ability to give other people those abilities. It takes time to get an army together; he could probably arrange a fairly decent defense during that time by reclaiming his Southern throne. And he’d also have the GBs running sabotage with Raysium knives and anti-light the entire time.

But if Kelsier get's involved Hoid will aid Roshar, not for any loyalty, just to spite the Lord of Scars

[Kingsdaughter613]

9 minutes ago, Frustration said:

But if Kelsier get's involved Hoid will aid Roshar, not for any loyalty, just to spite the Lord of Scars

I assumed Hoid was doing this anyway, because Jasnah. Hoid likes Saze though, and he REALLY wants instant noodles. If Roshar conquers Scadrial he’s unlikely to get those...

[Frustration]

19 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

I assumed Hoid was doing this anyway, because Jasnah. Hoid likes Saze though, and he REALLY wants instant noodles. If Roshar conquers Scadrial he’s unlikely to get those...

I don't know, advancing food production and storage as part of the war effort could be a secondary bonus.

[Kingsdaughter613]

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I don't know, advancing food production and storage as part of the war effort could be a secondary bonus.

Ah, but pasta typically requires ingredients unfamiliar to most Rosharans. They won’t have the know how to make them.

[Frustration]

Just now, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Ah, but pasta typically requires ingredients unfamiliar to most Rosharans. They won’t have the know how to make them.

Scandrial could definatly use a boost to, quick meals makes for a faster army.

[Kingsdaughter613]

Just now, Frustration said:

Scandrial could definatly use a boost to, quick meals makes for a faster army.

Ah, but that requires a Scadrial that can fight back instead of being swiftly crushed.

[Frustration]

Just now, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Ah, but that requires a Scadrial that can fight back instead of being swiftly crushed.

....

I don't have a counter for that.

[StanLemon]

I find it very unlikely that Roshar is going to attack Scadrial, at least any time soon. Roshar is too heavily divided and I find it unlikely that Taravangian is going to "win" enough to bring war to other planets in the near future. Also I think you might underestimate Scadrial's defensive potential. One of Kelsier's goals is the protection of Scadrial from Cosmere threats and he's had three centuries to plan and build defenses. Through Southern Scadrial he's effectively got access to nukes which would allow him to completely destroy Rosharan forces as they make their way towards Roshar. Radiant's wouldn't have a good source of Investiture, one (or two with Ishar's Blade) Bondsmith's able to open up a Perpendicularity aren't likely going to be enough to supply the Stormlight needs of an entire army and the Bondsmiths would be a prime target for someone as powerful as Kelsier to kill asap. If they are moving their armies through the Cognitive Realm they won't have access to any of their Shards while in the Cognitive. And finally, Scadrial just plain has better firepower than Roshar, a full Shardbearer might be able to kill dozens in minutes but Scadrial has the technology to kill hundreds if not thousands in minutes not counting the Southern bombs.

1 hour ago, teknopathetic said:

They can't leave right now. There is evidence that this issue will be solved. I can't give spoilers, but Brandon's latest reading from a First of the Sun sequel sheds some light on this issue. 

This also takes place centuries into the future so it's not likely to happen before Scadrians have ways to defend themselves

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

But if Kelsier get's involved Hoid will aid Roshar, not for any loyalty, just to spite the Lord of Scars

Hoid also likes Scadrial, the most he's likely to involve himself is to go against Kelsier but I find it unlikely he would wholesale go against Scadrial. In fact he would probably have disdain towards the idea of Roshar attacking Scadrial

 

[LewsTherinTelescope]

2 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Through Southern Scadrial he's effectively got access to nukes which would allow him to completely destroy Rosharan forces as they make their way towards Roshar.

Two things: one, ettmetal isn't nuclear:

Quote

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

He said ettmetal is chemically reactive, not nuclear.

The longer answer makes it sound like Harmonium isn't a Lerasium/Atium alloy, but a whole new metal. He described it as "super-cesium," and that its volatility was based on electrons, not on protons or neutrons.

"It is not unstable, it is reactive. So it's like a "super-cesium". It reacts so violently..."

Footnote: Unspecified question by Pagerunner.
Arcanum Unbounded Hoboken signing (Dec. 3, 2016)

In fact, the epilogue of Bands of Mourning says:

Quote

It had proven ineffective, barely more explosive than dynamite, when they needed something that could end cities.

Two, Roshar is capable of mass-producing nukes via Soulcasting, so they win the big explosion fight if it comes to that.

[StanLemon]

5 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Two things: one, ettmetal isn't nuclear:

In fact, the epilogue of Bands of Mourning says:

No, but the bomb in BoM was estimated as having a yield strong enough to destroy Elendel. That's why I say effectively have nukes.

Quote

Two, Roshar is capable of mass-producing nukes via Soulcasting, so they win the big explosion fight if it comes to that.

Roshar lacks the scientific knowledge to do this so this point is meaningless. They aren't likely to develop complex atomic theory in the timeframe between book 5 and Era 2

Edited January 28, 2021 by StanLemon

[Frustration]

1 minute ago, StanLemon said:

Roshar lacks the scientific knowledge to do this so this point is meaningless. They aren't likely to develop complex atomic theory in the timeframe between book 5 and Era 2

well, they're about 2 minuets away from discovering Anti-matter.

[StanLemon]

Just now, Frustration said:

well, they're about 2 minuets away from discovering Anti-matter.

Not really, they have no knowledge of quantum theory beyond Investiture. They have no reason to believe the knowledge of Light will translate over to the physics of matter.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

Just now, StanLemon said:

Roshar lacks the scientific knowledge to do this to this point is meaningless. They aren't likely to develop complex atomic theory in the timeframe between book 5 and Era 2

Not on their own, but if Taravangian is attacking Scadrial, he's got a lot more knowledge than they do due to his Ascension, and can probably point them towards it.

1 minute ago, StanLemon said:

No, but the bomb in BoM was estimated as having a yield strong enough to destroy Elendel. That's why I say effectively have nukes.

1. Wouldn't be surprised if Suit was bluffing, considering what he says in the epilogue about it being less powerful than expected.
2. They still need a way to deliver it without getting wrecked.
3. We have no idea how accessible large amounts of ettmetal actually would be.

[Frustration]

Just now, StanLemon said:

Not really, they have no knowledge of quantum theory beyond Investiture. They have no reason to believe the knowledge of Light will translate over to the physics of matter.

they don't need quantum theory, all they need is someone to say

hey, this anti-light destroys this light,

so, what id we made anitiron or what not,

1 soulcast later, and they have the power to destroy cities

[LewsTherinTelescope]

1 minute ago, StanLemon said:

Not really, they have no knowledge of quantum theory beyond Investiture. They have no reason to believe the knowledge of Light will translate over to the physics of matter.

Actually... (RoW 65)

Quote

“Matter has its opposite: negative axi that destroy positive axi when combined. This is known, and confirmed by the Shards Odium and Honor. So some have thought … is there a negative to light? An anti-light? I had discarded this idea. After all, I assumed that if there was an opposite to Stormlight, it would be Voidlight.”

Confirmed knowledge of antimatter is what led to theorizing about anti-Light in the first place. Though that doesn't mean they're anywhere near accomplishing creating it.

[StanLemon]

3 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Not on their own, but if Taravangian is attacking Scadrial, he's got a lot more knowledge than they do due to his Ascension, and can probably point them towards it.

Which would require Taravangian to win and Roshar to be united. Which again is unlikely

Quote

1. Wouldn't be surprised if Suit was bluffing, considering what he says in the epilogue about it being less powerful than expected.

He was talking about the Set's attempt at recreating the bomb

Quote

1. They still need a way to deliver it without getting wrecked.

Kelsier being a fullborn could effectively walk in there in the Cognitive tear his way through any enemies, get to the Bondsmiths, murder them, set off the bomb, and tap steel to run away before it explodes

Quote

1. We have no idea how accessible large amounts of ettmetal actually would be.

It's accessible enough that Southern Scadrial utilizes it heavily for their technology

4 minutes ago, Frustration said:

they don't need quantum theory, all they need is someone to say

hey, this anti-light destroys this light,

so, what id we made anitiron or what not,

1 soulcast later, and they have the power to destroy cities

 

5 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Actually... (RoW 65)

Confirmed knowledge of antimatter is what led to theorizing about anti-Light in the first place. Though that doesn't mean they're anywhere near accomplishing creating it.

Them beings simply able to Soulcast it is a stretch, otherwise there is no reason that Fused wouldn't have absolutely destroyed the Radiants with it. Jasnah in WoK shows that if they don't have sufficient knowledge of something they can't Soulcast it correctly so they would have to understand the nature of matter and antimatter to do so. Here is a snippit from a larger WoB on how hard it would to Soulcast weapons grade Uranium and Plutonium. If it isn't one of the 10 Essences you can't just make it by thinking about it

Brandon Sanderson

This is useful information for me, but my gut says that Rosharans couldn't get this working with their current tech level. That said, the REAL issue (as you mentioned in your original question) is knowledge, not feasibility. They'd have to know how to make the right kind of Uranium or Plutonium--and would need to be able to get this across to a soulcaster in a way that works, then THEY would need to get this across to spren. Cross that hurdle, and I suppose it's not at all implausible to imagine Alethi during Dalinar's era with nukes. I suspect the right kind of fabrial could make a trigger device to match ring and bullet at the right time. Depends on how quickly it needs to be going, though.

[StanLemon]

I just want to point out, the bases of this thread hinges on Taravangian completely winning in book 5. And not only that, effectively having the entirety of Roshar follow him after that victory. That's a stretch of plausibility especially when there would be so many forces working against him

[LewsTherinTelescope]

7 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Kelsier being a fullborn could effectively walk in there in the Cognitive tear his way through any enemies, get to the Bondsmiths, murder them, set off the bomb, and tap steel to run away before it explodes

I mean, he'd have to carry a pretty massive bomb there.

7 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Which would require Taravangian to win and Roshar to be united. Which again is unlikely

Agreed. I was responding to a specific point only.

8 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

It's accessible enough that Southern Scadrial utilizes it heavily for their technology

We don't know how many massive ships they have, do we? Could be relatively rare still.

8 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Them beings simply able to Soulcast it is a stretch, otherwise there is no reason that Fused wouldn't have absolutely destroyed the Radiants with it. Jasnah in WoK shows that if they don't have sufficient knowledge of something they can't Soulcast it correctly so they would have to understand the nature of matter and antimatter to do so.

Agreed. Was just saying that they are aware of its existence, even if they have no way to get it most likely.

[StanLemon]

Just now, LewsTherinTelescope said:

I mean, he'd have to carry a pretty massive bomb there.

Well...he does have effectively infinite strength...

Just now, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Agreed. I was responding to a specific point only.

We don't know how many massive ships they have, do we? Could be relatively rare still.

Agreed. Was just saying that they are aware of its existence, even if they have no way to get it most likely.

Yeah, those are good points. Honestly I had completely forgotten bit about antimatter being referenced

[LewsTherinTelescope]

1 minute ago, StanLemon said:

Well...he does have effectively infinite strength...

I assume he's still limited by how much he can hold before it just falls over, even if he's theoretically got the strength.

Also, Feruchemical pewter grows your muscles physically, right? I could see it causing problems if you tap past a certain point.

[Frustration]

@StanLemon Ten Essences, so like metal, or iron, or anti-iron.

Seems pretty stright forward.