Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Gears]

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

(we don’t have a N5 action claim from him to my knowledge)

Took Chalk. 

The facts: Someone submitted a NK. Therefore, someone used an action to do so. 

The players: Gears, Books, Archer, Bubbles, Araris, Ruby, Devotary, Mist.

The scans/claims: Gears [scanned Ruby with LoM+], Books [scanned Devotary with LoM+], Archer [scanned Mist with Crab], Bubbles [grabbed Chalk, scanned by Devotary], Araris [grabbed Chalk], Ruby [used LoW+, scanned by Gears], Devotary [used LoM+ on Bubbles, scanned by Books], Mist [grabbed Acid, scanned by Archer]. 

Things that must be true: Bubbles and Araris must have grabbed Chalk since otherwise we'd see a net increase in Chalk in the Camp Supply. Mist must have grabbed Acid because we have no counterclaim and there is a -1 net change in the Acid count. Therefore, they did not submit the NK.

The tinfoil [assuming people are elims and seeing where that takes us]: Elim!Gears? Teammates needed: None. Problems: Passed Kas the Clock, TUO vote. Elim!Books? Teammates needed: Warding+!Lotus or extra teammate N5 [Gears possible, other actions said, but since I know what I did, I say this outcome is impossible, but then again, I'd say that as an elim]. Problems: Had Shadowblaze, C5 actions very much claimed. Elim!Archer? Teammates needed: Someone else because I can't believe there were only 3 elims pre-conversion, someone to pass that doesn't mess with Defense. Problems: Shadowblaze [Bubbles?] Elim!Bubbles? Teammates needed: Someone to submit the NK. Problems: None that I can think of, except for the necessity of a teammate [that isn't one of the scanning crew, which is somewhat... difficult. Also, Archer lying about Mist on a hunch/all the actions being claimed seems a bit bold]. Elim!Araris? Teammates needed: Somewhat to submit the NK [see Bubbles teammates]. Problems: Went for the Gun! Elim!Ruby? Teammates needed: Someone to submit the NK [see Bubbles teammates]. Problems: Why defend the camp? Elim!Devotary? Teammates needed: Someone to submit the NK [see Bubbles teammates]. Problems: Why scan Bubbles? Elim!Mist? Teammates needed: Someone to submit the NK [see Bubbles teammates]. Problems: Why grab Acid?

Viable lone elims: Gears [mechanically viable, fails when actual actions are accounted for]

People who need teammates: Bubbles, Araris, Devotary, Mist, Ruby, Books, Archer. Bubbles, Araris, Devotary, Ruby, and Mist could not have submitted the NK. As such, these are prospective pairs. 

I'm removing Ruby from the pool of evil because elim!Ruby probably wouldn't LoW+ and Books because the Shadowblaze is a bit persnickety. 

Remaining pool of evil: Bubbles, Araris, Devotary, Mist, Archer. If any of this group is evil, Archer must be evil. 

There is the Books possibility, but then that begs the question: How did Lotus get Warding+? 

Remaining possibilities: Bubbles/Archer, Araris/Archer [actions make nonviable], Devotary/Archer [I mildly trust Devotary for actually scanning Bubbles, but this is tinfoil/aluminium foil hour]. Of these, I think Bubbles/Archer most likely. So... we're settled? X Bubbles? If they flip village, we can investigate elsewhere. 

Please tell me if any of this reasoning is nonsensical.

[Archer]

Yeah, as Araris and Gears have pointed out, I messed up last night. The TL;DR on this post is Burnt and several others could be an elim, but only three people could have submitted the NK. Of them, Gears is the most likely. 

Kas’ Actions (spreadsheet):

Spoiler

 

*starts with chalk, as all Rithmatists do*

 

D1- Get chalk

N1-Line of Warding (uses D1 chalk)

D2- Fails to get acid (no result recorded on spreadsheet, but Supply writeup shows he didn’t)

N2- Line of Warding (uses starting chalk)

D3- Attempts to get chalk but fails

N3- Get chalk

D4- Get chalk

N4- LoF (uses N3 chalk)

D5-Get chalk (he records -1 chalk here, but that’s a typo. Writeup says he got chalk)

N5- LoF (uses D4 chalk)

D6- Get chalk

N6-Uses clock that was passed to him

D7-Got Rainbow chalk

N7-claimed in group PM plans to use regular chalk to LoM Burnt (uses D5 chalk)

During D5 (Feb 10), Kas claimed in our PM to only have one stick of chalk. That confirms he only had one piece of chalk to start with, as at the time, he only had his D4 piece.

 

This shows Kas had his regular D6 chalk and his D7 rainbow chalk on him when he died, as well as a lantern that was passed to him.

The net change in the Camp Supply was -1 bucket of acid, +1 lantern. Burnt, Araris, what type of chalk did you each get? If one of you got Rainbow and the other regular, that checks out. You both must be telling the truth to make the numbers work. Apologies for sussing you.

 

I have not been given the Shadowblaze. I can prove it tomorrow night by teaching someone. But I recognize that my crab scan is probably the least convincing because I just had to lie and say Mist has what they say they have if I’m an elim. Ash was the N6 NK. Kas has them down as having used a map that night, so they could not have passed it. To keep the SB in play, someone would have had to use Revocation+ to steal it, then passed it to me D7 because N7 everyone did known actions. Gears, Random, Flyingbooks, and Devo were listed in the Supply list for D7, so it couldn’t have been them. Burnt threw acid D7. Araris went for the gun D7. Therefore only Mist could have done it. They have never possessed a rainbow chalk and were not taught the Revocation specialization, so in order to pull this off, they must have started with the Revocation specialization. They’ve told me before that they can prove they have a different specialization than Revocation, so depending what it is, that can be cleared up fairly easily if they use it. Coupled with my night school, that should dispel any doubts about me having been converted. @Mist

Random’s LoW+ has not been contested, so let’s assume they are village. So if we take Mist, Araris, and Burnt out of the equation for having grabbed things, that leaves: Gears, Flyingbooks, and Devo.

-Gears claims to have LoM+’d Random. They correctly identified their action.

-Flyingbooks claims to have LOM+’d Devo. They correctly identified their action.

-Devo claims to have LoM+’d Burnt. They correctly identified their action.

Somewhere in this chain, someone lied about scanning and got lucky that no one changed their action. If Devo is an elim, Flyingbooks is covering for them and is also an elim. Flyingbooks could also be a solo elim, or one with Gears. All these possibilities rely on elim!Flyingbooks having had a way to adjust the camp defense up by two when they held the Shadowblaze.

On D6, Kas did a breakdown of how elim!Flyingbooks could have faked it. They anonymized the names of some people, but later posted their full spreadsheet, so we know the two people who drew LoWs were Burnt and Random. Interestingly, I gave Devo Warding specialization on D1, so they could have drawn LoW instead of LoM as they said they did to cover for their teammate. Funnily enough, I think the LoM Devo claimed was on Flyingbooks, so that’s an interesting loop.

Anyway, on N5, Ashbringer took the SB. Their action show they didn’t pass it so it must have been stolen N6 if it didn’t die with them. And that requires Revocation specialization. Gears started with Making, not Revocation. Lotus could have done it, but they grabbed the gun instead of passing it D7, so if they had it, it died with them. Burnt started with Warding. Flyingbooks has Vigor and didn’t learn Revocation until D6. They’d have had to shoot off a basic Revo and hope the 1/6 chance is in their favour that they get upgraded. Random has Revo and Devo claimed to have started with none, so they could be hiding their Revo, so those are the only two unaccounted for on Kas’ list of N6 actions. But on D7, both of them took a Supply item, so they must still have it on their person. In that case, the Camp Defence would be lower. Therefore, the SB died with Ashbringer.

So, did elim!Flyingbooks have Devo cover for them when they had the SB, then let it die with Ashbringer? Or was Flyingbooks village, and has honestly vouched for Devo, which makes Gears the only one who could have submitted the NK? Since we know the SB is out of play, we don’t need to worry about there being three elims (including e!myself) right now. So even if there is a misexe, we’ll be fine. I’ll use the same logic as last night (but on the right person this time hopefully) to support exing Gears. If it’s Gears, they may have a teammate. If it’s not, we know who our two elims are and can wrap this up fairly easily.

Edit: Araris

Edited February 19, 2021 by Archer

[Araris Valerian]

@Archer If you look at the time stamps, Gears posted what Randby did in our group PM prior to the action having been revealed. So Gears would have had to guess correctly who did a LoW. I also think Gears’s actions don’t fit super well with him being elim.

I also feel like the death of Kas suggests that an elim was in our group PM, since he would have been pretty risky to try and kill given his recent LoF actions. That makes me most suspicious of Books. I also think it’s a good point to mention that Books/Devotary is a possible team, with Devotary using a LoM+ and Books sending in the kill.

[Mist]

I've got Silencing+

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Mist said:

I've got Silencing+

You also appear to have used a Map on N6, which is the only time you could have stolen the Shadowblaze. The fact we need to account both for an extra specialization and an extra Map makes me not very suspicious of you converting Archer. I also forgot that Burnt did Acid during D7, and not really anyone else could have, except you. So elim!Archer requires elim!Burnt and elim!Mist and I still don’t think that all adds up. Archer is very probably village. 

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Quote

The net change in the Camp Supply was -1 bucket of acid, +1 lantern. Burnt, Araris, what type of chalk did you each get? If one of you got Rainbow and the other regular, that checks out. You both must be telling the truth to make the numbers work. Apologies for sussing you.

@Archer I grabbed plain chalk

mist , books I agree with Araris

 

---

(appologies on the minimalistic post, I am currently somewhere with an unreliable connection and only a few moments I can jump on, so I do not have the time for long responses rn >> I'll be back in normal civilization few hours after this cycle ends)

[Araris Valerian]

@Gears @Mist @Random Bystander @Archer @Flyingbooks @Devotary of Spontaneity

Just a friendly reminder to vote and take actions before the cycle ends. As I said above, I think Books is most likely an elim, possibly with Devotary as a teammate. Archer I think is mechanically confirmed village, unless the elims started with a piece of Rainbow Chalk or Archer has been helping them along the whole time, both of which I judge extremely unlikely. Burnt, Mist, Randby, and myself can’t have sent in the kill, although we could all be teammates of the person who did. Devotary is likely in the same group.

That leaves Books and Gears, and I think Gears has a fair amount going for himself as village by now.

[Archer]

Thanks for the confirmation, Burnt. +1 on everyone submit your actions. There's still rainbow chalk available, that'd be a good pickup. 

Since Flyingbooks confirmed Devo's scan, if Flyingbooks is evil, Devo is probably evil (taking into account the need to hide the SB difference too), but not necessarily the other way around (Only like 90% chance since Lotus could have had Warding+ or rainbow chalk or something). So the choice is between Flyingbooks and Gears. If Flyingbooks is village, we know Gears is an Elim. They might also have a partner. In that case, we go from 6:2 now to 5:2 at the end of today. 4:2 with the NK. 4:1 when Gears is exed. Then it's 3:1 if they pull off the NK. I would like to think that we could successfully figure out who the remaining person is at that point, if there is one. However, the alternative is hitting Gears today. Assume it's a misexe. We're at 5:2, but we know both Elims. It then goes 4:2, 4:1, we know who to RB, so no NK, then 4:0. 

Having said all that, if Flyingbooks and Devo are Elim buddies, they have two votes, and the ability to silence two votes. So our 6:2 becomes 4:2. Not everyone may vote and weird things can happen if bribes and the like are thrown around, so I'll follow Araris and move over to Gears Books

[Gears]

People who mechanically could not have submitted the kill: Bubbles, Mist, Ruby, Araris. People who have claimed to be unable to submit the kill: Gears [said scan results before results public, elim!Gears either good guesser [though Ruby said they would be] or insider trading], Books [scanned Devotary, elim!Books either good guesser [though Devotary said they would be] or insider trading], Devotary [only elim if Books is], Archer [Guessing here is riskier because Mist didn't claim [unless I'm forgetting], so they would have to actually be right]. 

The possible matchups: Solo!Gears hoping that people are honest [which could work considering that the Trust Circle had revealed this earlier], Gears/Ruby [which I find unlikely for a multitude of reasons, but mostly because Ruby would have no reason to Ward the Camp in that case, could have just said was roleblocked or something and saved the action], Solo!Books hoping that people are honest [which could work considering that the Trust Circle had revealed this earlier, and then there's the Shadowblaze problem], Books/Devotary [viable, though I still don't know how the Shadowblaze worked], possibly anyone/Archer [though I find that unlikely]

I know my alignment, so I can strike out the matchups with me in them [though other people might not], leaving Solo!Books, Books/Devotary, or X/Archer. Books today. If they flip elim, Devotary. If they flip vil, I'll make a lovely case for my alignment [case in point, Clock] while subtly implicating Archer.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

If elim!Ruby took the SB N6, then the only way it could have gotten to Archer is if Gears is also evil. They would have had to provide two defense N7 since both Gears and Ruby took items D7 and it doesn't fit to have two extra defense and pass the SB and submit a kill, so this isn't true. Teaching goes at the end of the night so Books couldn't have stolen it N6. Ventyl's the initial revocation specialist so unless multiple people can start with the same one or someone other than Reading started with rainbow chalk that means nobody could have given the SB to Archer.

I assume that Ruby claimed a LoW to somebody since Kas told me last night that someone was drawing a LoW. I don't know if Gears could have guessed that Ruby was the one who took the Book of Making N6. It looks like Gears claimed the LoM+ on Ruby before the day went up and elim Gears would have had to guess from among Kas, Burnt, me, and Ruby I believe even after getting lucky that a traceable item was taken. Gears/Ruby is mechanically viable though as is good guesser Gears and pretty much anybody except Archer.

The only person I told that I was going to use a LoM+ on Burnt was Kas. Did that information have any way of reaching Books? Any chance that Kas told people that it would be unnecessary to scan Burnt which would have lead to Books being able to guess it was me?

Ultimately we have either Gears/Ruby, guessing Gears/anyone*, Books/me, guessing Books/anyone*, where anyone doesn't include Archer unless we had distribution weirdness.

[Araris Valerian]

25 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The only person I told that I was going to use a LoM+ on Burnt was Kas. Did that information have any way of reaching Books? Any chance that Kas told people that it would be unnecessary to scan Burnt which would have lead to Books being able to guess it was me?

In the group PM (of myself, Gears, Archer, Kas, and Books), Kas told everyone what you were doing. So Books didn't need to use a LoM to know your action. It's basically a guarantee that the PM had an elim in it, which is unfortunate.

[Flyingbooks]

I know that I'm not an elim, so I'll vote Burnt Gears.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

In the group PM (of myself, Gears, Archer, Kas, and Books), Kas told everyone what you were doing. So Books didn't need to use a LoM to know your action. It's basically a guarantee that the PM had an elim in it, which is unfortunate.

If Books didn't need to use a LoM+ to know my action, that does make it more likely that they're an elim, but also opens up the possibility for pretty much anyone to be their elim teammate. I don't think Books could have gotten the SB to Archer but if Books submitted the kill then anyone else's actions could check out while still being evil.

[Mist]

Books

Because I think he's most likely to have submitted the elim kill.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

All right so Gears or Books. I do think Gears has been more village in the past and has a more narrow elim team scope, so I'll vote Books.

[Sart]

That's the end of the day.

[Sart]

After comparing notes, the Camp had everything figured out. The man nicknamed Books was clearly responsible for Duncan's death. He protested arguing that the Servant of the Mad God could have technically done it as well. His pleas fell on deaf ears though. The Camp strung him up, and when white leaked from his eyes, they knew they were on the right track.

Vote Count:
Flyingbooks (6): Gears, Archer, Burnt Spaghetti, Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Mist
Gears (1): Flyingbooks

Flyingbooks was court-martialed. They were a Forgotten.

Items Taken:

Spoiler

• Araris Valerian grabbed a Piece of Chalk
• Burnt Spaghetti grabbed a Bucket of Acid
• Archer grabbed a Spring-Powered Crab
• Devotary of Spontaneity grabbed a Piece of Rainbow Chalk

Camp Supply:

  Hide contents

• 11 Pieces of Chalk
• 8 Buckets of Acid
• 8 Bribes
• 17 Spring-Powered Crabs
• 1 Map
• 2 Lanterns
• 1 Pieces of Rainbow Chalk
• 1 Book of Vigor
• 1 Book of Silencing

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. @Gears : Servant of the Mad God
2. Quinn0928 : Nicole Cooper Rithmatist
3. Ashbringer : Faleast Rithmatist
4. Lotus : Daughter of the Prime forest Forgotten
5. Flyingbooks Forgotten
6. @Archer : Evan Wallace
7. @Burnt Spaghetti : Tia Vuur
8. Ventyl : Shimamura Sakura Rithmatist
9. The Unknown Order : Atreco Tel Forgotten
10. @Araris Valerian : Elysian
11. StrikerEZ : Frederick Kerr Rithmatist
12. Alvron : Blackbane Rithmatist
13. Shard of Reading Rithmatist
14. @Random Bystander
15. Illwei Rithmatist
16. TJ Shade Rithmatist
17. Condensation : Connie Forgotten
18. @Devotary of Spontaneity : Kaniae Moreau
19. Kasimir : Duncan Kerr Rithmatist
20. Matrim's Dice: Joshua Rithmatist
21. STINK : Respected Madman Thief
22. @Mist : Tria Noche
23. Dannex Rithmatist

The Strength of the Wild Chalklings is at 1. This Night will end at 8 PM CST on February 21st.

[Mist]

I threw acid last night.

Edit: day. I can definitely name times correctly 

Edit: meaning last cycle.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Mist

[Araris Valerian]

Well, the downside to Books being elim is his partner could be literally anyone else (except Archer). I'd give a slightly higher weight to Devotary for having Warding+, but other than that, I think we are back to looking at our suspicions. I'll see what I can see about interactions with Books.

[Random Bystander]

Sorry about not posting during the last part. I don't have a lot of time on weekends, and it slipped my mind. 

[Archer]

I honestly thought there was one elim left and it was Gears. Sorry about that.

Flyingbooks held the Shadowblaze and the camp defence registered as normal. Therefore, one person used the Warding specialization to cover for them, two people did so with regular lines, or some acid was thrown that wasn’t reported. I will assume that whoever did it was their elim teammate(s).

Flyingbooks took the SB on Day Five. Using Kas’ handy spreadsheet, we know that everyone who didn’t take a visible action was a villager. Therefore no one threw acid.

For having taken a confirmable action on N5, Araris, Random, Mist, and myself are cleared of having provided the additional defense.  

During the night, the spreadsheet has blanks for Gears, Lotus, Flyingbooks and Burnt. Devo claimed to have done a Line of Making that showed that Flyingbooks took no action, iirc.

Flyingbooks’ death had no effect on the Camp Supply. They were really unlucky with their item grabbing, but since they started with a piece of chalk, they should have had one on them when they died. Additionally, I believe players either start with a specialization or an item. They could have started with a piece of rainbow chalk. They could have also started with the Warding Specialization. They could have used these to adjust the Camp Defence on N5. If that’s the case, Devo is lying and is their partner.

Devo, who has Warding+ could have drawn the line to cover for them, then lied and said they did Making. In that case, Devo is their elim teammate.

It wasn’t known what specialization Lotus had, if any, so they could have had the specialization or rainbow chalk. However, she dropped a crab and three pieces of chalk when she died and is only on record as having taken a single piece of chalk. Add the one they started with and we’ve got a chalk and a crab we don’t know where they came from. That’s a mystery someone is welcome to look into if they have the time. Did a random crab disappear one night or did they start with it? Is there night chalk, probably from N3 or 4 we don’t know who it was taken by? Probably. Anyway, just to account for what they had, they needed to have taken more than they said. To have drawn the line, they needed to have taken a chalk one night and used their N5 action to draw. We don’t know if they had the specialization or not so we have to assume they did. The only way we can disprove it was them is if we can trace all the item movement, which I’m not going to do. Lotus could also not have the specialization and have drawn a line with another elim.

Gears and Burnt both had the chalk to do it. They both have other specializations than Warding, but as I said, could have joined Lotus.

We can not say for sure that Flyingbooks’ elim teammate was a specialist. Flyingbooks was down at least one piece of chalk, so we can't even say for sure that it wasn't them who drew the line (If Devo flips village, it could still be Lotus who did it). All we know is that I can’t provide defense, so I didn't do it. 

[Burnt Spaghetti]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

 

Gears and Burnt both had the chalk to do it. They both have other specializations than Warding, but as I said, could have joined Lotus.

My only specialisation is in warding

[Gears]

Apparently, I failed to grab a Piece of Chalk. Given that there are still 11 Pieces of Chalk, I can only presume I was roleblocked.

The Books iso:

Spoiler

D1

Spoiler

Quote

Lan MinRai’s first time worldhopping had gone horribly wrong before they even managed to get out of Sel’s region of the Cognitive Realm. They had gotten separated from their guide amid the storm of dangerous, uncontrolled power. All of their gear was aluminum-coated, but their supplies would only last so long, and it was so easy to get turned around here. As they trudged through the roiling Investiture, Min came upon a disruption in where it looked like a world could’ve possibly existed if only things had turned out differently. Although they should have probably continued onwards - they’d get to the edge of Sel’s corner of the Cognitive Realm eventually, after all - they set up camp and began to investigate the area. After all, “Could have been”s were at the core of every Forgery, and Forging an entire world would be an incredible achievement. Over the next few days, Min mapped the structure of the anomaly and found that the world which it was connected to did exist, but it seemed to be in an entirely different universe. This would make Forging a connection to it easier in some ways but more difficult in others. By the time the guide who they had hired managed to find them, they had decided to stay and work on their new project. Over the next few years, with deliveries of food and supplies every few weeks, Min worked to create several sets of soulstamps for a planet. The first set would create a small space in the Cognitive Realm where the other world would be part of the Cosmere. The second set would create a bubble around Min connected to MaiPon’s part of the Cognitive Realm so that their Forgeries would continue working.

Min walked through the portal between universes and their senses were immediately assaulted by the smells of a big city. After living in aluminum tents within a deadly storm of investiture for several years, they were unaccustomed to being around so many people at the same time. They walked through the streets, seeing the sights that this world had to offer, until they saw two young Rithmatists. From the very first time they saw Rithmatics in action, Min was fascinated by it. It was so similar to Selish Investitures in some ways, but in other ways it was so different from anything they had ever seen. Min decided that they would figure out how to become a Rithmatist. They spent months looking for any hint of a more certain way to become a Rithmatist than being chosen seemingly at random. When they heard rumors of Shadowblazes - which were apparently supposed to be able to make people into Rithmatists - in Nebrask, Min bought a spot on the next springrail there.

 

(I wrote this before getting my GM PM. If I’m a Rithmatist, Min would have quickly found a Shadowblaze, if I’m an elim, they would’ve made a deal with the Forgotten for a Shadowblaze, and if I’m the thief or non-Rithmatist, they’d still be trying to find one.)

RP

Quote

On 1/28/2021 at 10:12 PM, Ashbringer said:

Flyingbooks42. Striker said he’d be going after you* so nobody else should, and I would like to discover if he is hiding a fellow Forgotten.

What do you mean by "going after me"?

Completely misses the joke

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I PMd Striker since I'm planning to get a book too and I wanted to be able to coordinate.

Continues to miss the joke.

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Anybody who wants a book should probably PM Striker since he's apparently become the book coordinator.

This is indeed true.

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 On 1/28/2021 at 10:34 PM, Ashbringer said:

Anyone who wants a book should do what they want and not trust Striker and Books just because there is absolutely no reason not to trust them so far.

Unless you want a book as badly as I want my Shadowblaze.

Coordinating about who gets which books is helpful because it means that nobody wastes their actions. 

It also means that the elims can coordinate to take all the books, but... well.

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I'm going to vote for Archer. They feel a bit suspicious to me in a group PM that we're both in, which is as good a reason as any on D1.

Hard to read into this it's for PM reasons [snarl]

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Since there's no vote minimum, if nobody votes is the exe chosen completely at random?

Questions are mostly NAI.

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I'll join the vote on Matrim.

edie: Archer

Sheeping for the mis-X.

Conclusion as of D1: Sheeps mis-X's, limited associations.

N1

Spoiler

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  On 1/31/2021 at 0:52 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Also, I’m not sure what happened with Books. I thought they told me they were going for Revocation. Maybe I missed them changing their mind.

Lots of people were going for Revocation so I decided to go for a book with less competition. Any book is useful, even if only to make sure that it's kept out of elim hands.

"Kept out of elim hands" - An elim. Obviously wanted Vigor+, uses coordination as excuse.

Conclusion as of N1: Same as D1.

D2

Spoiler

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Did anybody roleblock someone else?

Probably wasn't the roleblock then.

Quote

I forgot to put in an action because I got used to 2-day nights in the LG. 

So you were the one to submit the kill.

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I'm very busy with homework so I haven't been able to really read the thread. I'll probably catch up with it a bit before rollover

All right then.

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Can somebody please summarize what's been going on for me?

Probably genuine.

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I think I'll vote Matrim as a sacrifice to the gods of luck and chance. I honestly don't really know exactly what's going on, so I might as well create some chaos.

Since both of the X candidates were village, they had no preference.

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Don't break the tie! The gods of luck and chance must be appeased by a sacrifice!

Banter

Conclusion as of D2: A very sheepish voter. A bit out of touch. No connections.

N2

Books did not post during this time.

D3

Spoiler

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 On 2/4/2021 at 11:41 PM, TJ Shade said:

HEY, I just thought of a brilliant idea of using Shadowblaze as an alignment scanner! Every cycle we can pass it to someone who we think is a villager. If the strength of the chalkings doesn't increase more than expected, we can hard-clear them as village! Of course, the aim of this is more to hard-clear villagers than to find elims because then we would have to deliberately give it to suspected people and if they're elims then it's out of our hands, but then Ash (if he's village) or normal revocation can be used to get it back and now we've found an elim. Thoughts? Is it.. game break-y?

It's a good idea in theory, but the elims could theoretically add an extra unreported line of warding if it gets passed to one of them, making it seem like somebody was hard-cleared. It'd cost a chalk but it would definitely be beneficial to the elims to have one of their number be a firm village read. Alternatively, an elim could falsely claim to be using a line of warding if a villager had the shadowblaze so the net defense would be one lower than expected, making a villager seem suspicious at no cost.

Probably just their plan when they get the Shadowblaze.

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  On 2/4/2021 at 11:52 PM, TJ Shade said:

Yes, that's why I'm not focusing on the strength of the camp, which would be susceptible to elim manipulation. I've telling we should focus on the strength of the chalkings which is told to us at the beginning on every Night turn. There is no way to manipulate that other than an ML (which we can keep track of) or Shadowblaze, which in the hands of an elim gives +1 strength to chalkings. 

Ok. Now that I've noticed that we get the strength told to us, I can't see any obvious flaws with the accuracy of the plan.

Probably notes that TJ is wrong and doesn't correct them in an attempt to get some clears.

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  On 2/5/2021 at 10:22 AM, StrikerEZ said:

maybe Flyingbooks (they seem to be hanging on the edge of the game for the most part).

I've been really busy with school lately, so I haven't had much time to focus on the game

Probably genuine

Conclusion as of D3: Modus operandi is sheeping, hanging on by threads, ignoring village mistakes

N3

Books said nothing.

D4

Spoiler

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  On 2/6/2021 at 9:01 PM, Gears said:

Striker you liar. I scanned you with a Line of Making. You grabbed the Ornate Clock. 

The rules just say that the specialized line of making tells you what action the target took, so it might not show whether the action was successful.

Incentivising paranoia?

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I will vote on Order. The reasoning for them being an elim isn't that strong, but I don't think that the clock issue is a valid reason for voting Striker or Gears at all - both of their actions seem reasonable from a village perspective to me.

Last second bus.

Conclusion as of D4: Continues to just sheep.

N4

Said nothing.

D5

Spoiler

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 On 2/9/2021 at 9:17 PM, Ashbringer said:

@Flyingbooks, what have you been doing actionwise?

Last night I forgot to take an action. This is the first game where I've actually had actions, so I'm not used to having to remember to put one in every turn.

 

This might just be my paranoia speaking, but I'm a bit suspicious of Araris. Both of the games that I've had as an elim have been with him. In one of them he did a major bus and in both of them he put his teammates on his sus list.

Think better of Araris.

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On 2/10/2021 at 8:58 PM, Ashbringer said:

What about before last night? Like... all the other turns?

My actions:

D1: took a book of Vigor

N1: forgot to submit an action

D2: Tried to get a bucket of acid. Failed.

N2: Tried to get chalk. Failed.

D3: Tried to get chalk. Failed again.

N3: Drew a line of Warding (yes, I was the other warder)

D4: Tried to get chalk. Succeeded.

N4: Forgot to submit an action.

So they were the one to submit the NKs a lot.

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 On 2/10/2021 at 10:13 PM, Archer said:

Flyingbooks, as far as I can tell, you could have submitted three NK's, every night except N3. And I can't ignore the coincidence that N3 is the night TUO said they forgot to submit an action. 

If I was an elim, do you really think that I would have said that I did actions that (admittedly) make me look suspicious? I could have simply never said that I forgot to take an action during the night and people would have just assumed that I had simply failed to get an item. There are other alternative lies that I could tell (at least one of which would probably make an elim doing them seem more village), but I won't write them here in case I give the elims any ideas. Also, there's simply no motivation for an elim to lie about not doing an action even before they are asked, since that would make them seem more suspicious, while for a villager, it'd be good to be honest about past actions

Of course, we now know that they were just saying this to excuse their suspicious behavior.

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I'm going to vote on Araris for the reasons that I've said before. Now that other people have also had the same suspicions I know that mine aren't just senseless paranoia.

Probably not Araris then.

Conclusion as of D5: Probably not Araris.

N5

Spoiler

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Tonight I'll probably pass the Shadowblaze to somebody else so that the elims can't kill me to get rid of it. 

Lies? Probably.

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Ventyl says that he's planning to take the Shadowblaze from me. Could somebody roleblock him so that I can give it to somebody who I actually trust?

I'm assuming that they're trying to either "get rid of it" or actually pass it to a villager that they can promptly kill [since Giving comes before the Kill in the OoA]

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 On 2/12/2021 at 4:33 PM, Random Bystander said:

I would if I could, but I already used an action today. 

You can always cancel your action and decide to do a different one.

Means nothing.

Conclusion as of N5: I think the pass and kill method is the best method of disposing of the Shadowblaze.

D6

Spoiler

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I was going to give the Shadowblaze away but it seems to have been stolen from me.

Probably genuine. See Ash.

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  On 2/12/2021 at 10:24 PM, Archer said:

And why’d you take it anyway in the first place?

My plan was to keep it circulating among villagers. I know that I'm a villager but I don't know if other people who are trying to get the Shadowblaze are villagers, so since I got it, I can give it to a person who I trust. If people only ever pass the Shadowblaze to people at the top of their trust lists then at some point an elim could possibly get it, but that's less likely and would take more time than an elim getting it randomly from the supply.

 

I will pu a vote on Mist. In addition to what Araris said, doing everything based on RNG makes her actions less easily analyzed and claiming to RNG would allow her to subtly protect teammates if she is an elim because she could always say that she voted on a villager instead of an elim in a close grinch because the dice told her to.

I can't really comment on their plan. The elims keeping the Shadowblaze is an occupational hazard. Of course, they could say "Oh, it was stolen from me" and just pass it off to an elim so everyone will mis-X the Rev+ folks. I don't know if that's what they were planning on doing. 

Conclusion as of D6: Since there was no NK, we can assume that they were tied up with actions. People with unconfirmed/no actions D5: Mist. People with unconfirmed/no actions N5: Gears, Lotus, Books, Devotary, Mist [did the items thing clear her for this? I don't remember if the Chalk adds up]. Either Books didn't plan to pass it off at all and was using a Line to make it add up alongside Lotus, or Devotary used a Line to cover it up. So Books/Devotary or Books/anyone* [Not Archer, Araris, or Bubbles [see D7] because of mechanics, interactions, etc. Not me because I know about me [though you can reconsider]. Devotary is the other option, so not in the anyone* category. Ruby used Warding+, and I don't understand why they'd do that if they were an elim. As such, I think anyone* is Mist. So our two options are Devotary and Mist. I'm leaning towards Devotary because I can't remember if the Chalk count matched with Mist [@Archer did it match Kas's spreadsheet? [Sorry for burying the ping in this iso...]]] 

N6

Books said nothing

D7

Spoiler

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I'm going to vote on Burnt because she's one of the likely elims according to Kas' analysis and I read her as slightly more suspicious than Lotus.

  On 2/16/2021 at 11:07 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Why meeeee I'm not the one killing you guys I swear! I'm nice! I've only ever done like one thing other than item grabbing ever! 

This post especially seems a bit "off" to me.

Trying to save Lotus, so probably vil!Bubbles.

Conclusion as of D7: Villagers based on interaction with Books: Araris, Bubbles.

N7

Books said nothing

D8

Spoiler

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My LOM+ showed that Devotary LOM+ed Burnt.

Necessary actions: A kill. See long paragraph conclusion under D6.

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I will vote for Burnt because the evidence points to her doing the NK.

Books isn't the one to bus until it's a foregone conclusion. I read Bubbles as more village because of this.

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A Burnt and Devotary team seems like it'd be more likely than Araris as the last elim to me at this point, but I agree that if Burnt turns out not to be an elim we should execute Araris tomorrow.

Trying to ensure 2 mixs.

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I know that I'm not an elim, so I'll vote Burnt Gears.

Lies, like poison and gold. I'd like to say that this implies good things about me, but if I was an elim about to die because of a runaway train, I'd probably vote on a fellow elim to give them the cred post-flip. 

Conclusion as of D8: Devotary or Mist, and I'm leaning towards Devotary. I suppose we'll have to see. I'd like to get scans on both of them. Who has Making+? I forget.

Conclusion: Village Bubbles, Araris. Our elims are Devotary or Mist. I ask that you at least read my end-of-turn conclusions, if not the entire iso. 

---

The Servant of the Mad God sat in a room, crafting Chalk out of a new material: Forgotten eyes. The results would be quite interesting, if it actually functioned. Perhaps the fluid would ruin the batch, but hopefully not. Speaking of batches, the one mixed with Duncan Kerr's blood was finished. It had a slight reddish tinge, but it seemed functional. Not especially special or powerful, but a totem of fortune, perhaps. The best of them had fallen, but his Bloodline carried on. His Lines of Blood carried on. All lines that the Servant drew from this point onwards would be of this batch, just for the pun.

[Archer]

12 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

My only specialisation is in warding

My bad. Yes you do. Very sus!

59 minutes ago, Gears said:

Apparently, I failed to grab a Piece of Chalk. Given that there are still 11 Pieces of Chalk, I can only presume I was roleblocked.

Interesting. Random and Flyingbooks have the Vigor specialization, so if they did it, you would have been misled by the GM instead of being told you failed. Araris, Devo, Burnt and myself took from the Supply. Mist claims to have splashed acid. That's everyone's actions accounted for. I'm very confused. Either Gears is lying, someone intentionally downgraded their Vigor line to confuse us, or Mist is lying. Mist's is easily confirmable because they'll need to add to the Defense tonight in order to make it look like they really did splash acid, so if we can get a Making+ scan on them, that'd be great. But I think it's more likely a GM mistake. It seems like a high risk, low reward scheme. 

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Conclusion as of D6: Since there was no NK, we can assume that they were tied up with actions. People with unconfirmed/no actions D5: Mist. People with unconfirmed/no actions N5: Gears, Lotus, Books, Devotary, Mist [did the items thing clear her for this? I don't remember if the Chalk adds up]. Either Books didn't plan to pass it off at all and was using a Line to make it add up alongside Lotus, or Devotary used a Line to cover it up. So Books/Devotary or Books/anyone* [Not Archer, Araris, or Bubbles [see D7] because of mechanics, interactions, etc. Not me because I know about me [though you can reconsider]. Devotary is the other option, so not in the anyone* category. Ruby used Warding+, and I don't understand why they'd do that if they were an elim. As such, I think anyone* is Mist. So our two options are Devotary and Mist. I'm leaning towards Devotary because I can't remember if the Chalk count matched with Mist [@Archer did it match Kas's spreadsheet? [Sorry for burying the ping in this iso...]]] 

Yes yes yes. I had forgotten about the lack of kill. This explains the lack of an NK, they had to take actions to cover. Very good point. 

I agree that having Reading Ward also seems like an odd thing for the elim team to do when they needed extra Warding to cover the SB. 

Mist has as much chalk as they should (2 pieces), so it wasn't them. I believe their claim that they have the Silencing specialization, so they probably didn't start with an extra chalk. I think it's safe to assume they haven't taken any action they haven't reported, so for this, I'd take them off the list. 

It can't have been Books/anyone though because Devo scanned Books and said they did nothing. And Books/Devo is unlikely anyway because Devo would have just done it themselves. 

But here's where I get confused. You have Lotus, Books, and another elim. If any of them have Warding+, they should do it themselves to reduce the risk of being caught. If none of them do, they'll need two people to do it. Why wasn't Flyingbooks one of those people? According to Devo, they took no action. Did they think they would be scanned? In that case, they potentially risked both of their teammates being exposed. Alternatively, they have a specialist. My gut says it's the latter because if there's one thing the elims have done this game, it's play it safe. Grabbing the SB was a bold gambit, but I feel they'd only do it if they had a plan. Devo's action makes sense as part of a plan before it heads off any questions by giving a reason they're short chalk if someone with a crab checks their inventory. Two people claiming no action is pretty risky. But then, Lotus could have it the specialization too and we wouldn't know.  

 

Who's taking the rainbow chalk tonight?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 hours ago, Archer said:

Flyingbooks took the SB on Day Five. Using Kas’ handy spreadsheet, we know that everyone who didn’t take a visible action was a villager. Therefore no one threw acid.

 

During the night, the spreadsheet has blanks for Gears, Lotus, Flyingbooks and Burnt. Devo claimed to have done a Line of Making that showed that Flyingbooks took no action, iirc.

Gears and Burnt both had the chalk to do it. They both have other specializations than Warding, but as I said, could have joined Lotus.

Mist could have used acid D5 if she started with a bucket, since failing to take the SB is an unconfirmable action.

I'm pretty sure Books taking no action N5 means they tried to give the SB to someone but Ash stole it before that could happen.

Burnt claimed a LoW+ for N5 so she couldn't have been the secret extra defense.