Gears Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 That Camp Supply is most definitely the work of several Maps. Net change: +5 Chalk, +6 Acid, +6 Bribes, +8 Crabs, +1 Map, +4 Rainbow Chalk, +1 Gun, -1 Book of Warding [Random Bystander took that, by the way], +1 Book of Vigor, +2 Books of Silencing. At least 3, probably more, Maps. I don't know what Ash had, but still. This is a lot. But we need more. So much more. Let us drown under the weight of poor decisions as we tear each other apart for the bountiful harvest. Let the chalk crumble to dust as we scrabble at the barren earth in search of treasure for the hoard. The Dragon that is the Camp roars in triumph as the Maps lead it to yet more items, yet more gleaming gold. The hunger that is the dragons' lot burns with a feverish madness, setting the mind on a singular goal: More. It hungers. It starves. It wants with a bitter ache that will never be fulfilled. Let longing claw the heart. Let fervor burn the soul. The Dragon wants. The Dragon needs. And so it takes. Ashbringer is an... interesting kill. Was it because they were relatively trusted while not having claimed a Line of Forbiddance? Then why didn't they kill me, a scanner of actions? As far as I can tell, the few distinguishing factors are Kas's trust and their Revocation+, and lots of people had Revocation+. Ah, ninja'd by Archer. They were rumored to have the Shadowblaze? I suppose that explains it. @Lanterns, what was Defense at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 Camp defense was at 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 (edited) [OOC: Well, it's done so now I can say it - I used the Clock, which added 3 to the Camp's Defense. Defense was 4 - so yes, Ash was a Rithmatist and had the Shadowblaze, so unfortunately the NK hasn't been as informative as it could be. No idea if it was taken before he died, or no. TBH, I strongly suspect Ash was already suspected to have the Shadowblaze - Devo mentioned it in our PM. If that's the case, the Forgotten probably knew killing the guy with the Shadowblaze and stealing it would mean we don't get the benefit of knowing Ash's alignment on top of the NK removing someone else. Anyway, I'm busy this morning due to an overwhelming caseload, so I'll be back later. If Defense is 4, no one Warded last night. Map users at least could be helpful because we know their actions are accounted for, such as Ash's. @Map Users, which of you are claiming the use of Maps last night? Edit: Burnt best thread ninja ] Edited February 16, 2021 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: Well, it's done so now I can say it - I used the Clock, which added 3 to the Camp's Defense. Defense was 4 - so yes, Ash was a Rithmatist and had the Shadowblaze, so unfortunately the NK hasn't been as informative as it could be. No idea if it was taken before he died, or no. TBH, I strongly suspect Ash was already suspected to have the Shadowblaze - Devo mentioned it in our PM. If that's the case, the Forgotten probably knew killing the guy with the Shadowblaze and stealing it would mean we don't get the benefit of knowing Ash's alignment on top of the NK removing someone else. Anyway, I'm busy this morning due to an overwhelming caseload, so I'll be back later. If Defense is 4, no one Warded last night. Map users at least could be helpful because we know their actions are accounted for, such as Ash's. @Map Users, which of you are claiming the use of Maps last night? Edit: Burnt best thread ninja ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mist Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 I used my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 I used my Map. I’d like to think I’m the one that found all those Crabs (which I propose we split among the survivors). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mist Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm wondering if the claimant of the Shadowblaze was village or elim. At first I was slightly sus of it being an elim, but now I'm realizing it could probably just as easily be a villager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, Archer said: On a less important "on topic" note, rumor has it Ashbringer had the Shadowblaze, so it was either stolen, which would have required someone to know he had it, or its gone now. Flyingbooks received my specialization lesson. [OOC: I can confirm the only two Ash claimed to have claimed to were me and Archer. But given that Ash had a Revocation+ specialisation and an expressed desire for the Shadowblaze, pretty sure it wasn't that difficult to figure out he might've tried for it.] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’m going to vote on Devotary for now. I’ll try and elaborate later, but she is my greatest suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 ...Carzinization at its finest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 37 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I’m going to vote on Devotary for now. I’ll try and elaborate later, but she is my greatest suspect. Dangit Araris, you ruined the crustacean zerg rush plan. Now I have to vote for Lotus and be content with the one crab I'll get today as a souvenir. On that note, if you're for some absurd reason not going for crabs, might I suggest claiming the action in thread? The elims likely won't waste chalk cancelling a grab with so many goodies about. So we should ensure only five people go for rainbow chalk while everyone else gets regular chalk (or a consolation crab). It's gonna be posted anyway. If you're going for the gun, call it out, but be warned that the exe target may also grab it and kill you with them. Then tonight I recommend we either have a scanning, suspect blocking, or self protecting party to prevent the NK. We can afford to start heavily using chalk. And I'll be very sad if I die and lose my crab(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 Waiit-wow I didn't notice that we have 5 rainbow chalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 [OOC: Still clearing a massive caseload today. In light of that, for the moment - Burnt.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted February 16, 2021 Report Share Posted February 16, 2021 I guess I'll go for the gun. I think my death would clear some things up for a few people, and it would only happen if we grinched an elim, which puts the village in a pretty good spot anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Mist @Random Bystander @Devotary of Spontaneity @Lotus @Flyingbooks @Burnt Spaghetti @Gears Y'all have anything to say? We are over halfway through the cycle, and things are pretty dead here. There are 7 of you, so more of you are village than elim, and right now it would be rather trivial for the elims to control the vote. I'm strongly of the opinion that with this few players left we need everyone to be voting every cycle, otherwise we can't get any information and the last few elims can hide until GriLo. In the interests of prompting some discussion, I'll move my vote from Devotary to Burnt, at least until I hear from more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 (edited) [OOC: H'okay. Sorry for the time taken - I'm still working on redoing my analysis by throwing out every assumption I've made, and I've got a high caseload this week so I will need more time. But here's something to try to stimulate discussion: 1. Was the Shadowblaze stolen? 2. What do we think the Evil team strategy/profile is? 3. What does the picture of actions last night tell us? To look at this, I think we have to go back to the known actions. Judging from our items bonzana, I'd guess at least 2-3 maps were used. The write-up certainly hints that more than one map was used, too. Here are our known map actions: Spoiler Night Two - Alv Uses A Map +4 Pieces of Chalk, +2 Spring-Powered Crabs, +1 Map, +1 Lantern (likely from Quinn), +1 Ornate Clock, +1 Book of Silencing Night Three - Randby Uses A Map +1 Pieces of Chalk (possibly from Illwei), +2 Buckets of Acid, +2 Bribes, +1 Spring-Powered Crab, +1 Map, +1 Gun, +1 Book of Vigor Night Four - TJ and Ash Both Use Maps +7 Pieces of Chalk, +3 Buckets of Acid, +1 Bribe, +3 Spring-Powered Crabs, +2 Maps, +1 Lantern (likely from TJ), +1 Gun, + 1 Shadowblaze, +1 Book of Warding, +1 Book of Revocation Night Six - Multiple Maps Are Used +5 Pieces of Chalk, +6 Buckets of Acid, +6 Bribes, + 8 Spring-Powered Crabs, +1 Map, +1 Lantern, +4 Pieces of Rainbow Chalk, +1 Gun, +1 Book of Vigor, +2 Books of Silencing Ash did not have chalk, and could not have dropped the lantern or the Books. Weak assumption: We currently have Map claims from Araris, and Mist, and I think Ash claimed in a PM he would be going to use the Map - the write-up certainly suggests he did. (Oh, look at my desperation, making sense from a write-up...) Here's the thing. We also know Archer didn't use his Map - this is because he was teaching Books a specialisation ( @Flyingbooks, you able to verify if you did get one?) So this gives us a maximum of three Maps used - based off the general picture of the item supply, it doesn't look like anyone else claimed a Map unless someone started out with one. So let's look at the item distribution patterns - notice that each time on the past three Nights (Two to Four), when a Map was used, a Specialisation Book spawns, along with a rare item. On Night Four, when two maps were used, we get two Books and two rare items. Night Six is not exactly weird: we have one Lantern spawning, Rainbow Chalk (+3, but Sart could roll differently for quantity), a Gun, and three Books. I think the safest read is that this corroborates Araris's, Mist's, and Ash's claims to have used Maps. Which isn't so helpful as Ash is dead, but this tells us that neither Araris nor Mist could have put in the Night Kill. I was using the Clock, and Gears was using Making+ on Randby, who had claimed the Book of Warding. This gives us a narrow pool of players who could logically have put in the Night Kill: namely <Devo, Burnt, Books, Lotus.> Of this group, I would say I have a slight trust of Books, which leaves me with Lotus, Devo, and Burnt in the main suspect pool. Let's take a slight aside. Could Ash have been Revoked? (Since the Map was used, we know he couldn't have been hit by Vigor or Vigor+, unless someone else was using a Map within the Devo - Burnt - Books - Lotus pool, which would imply they started with one. Given TUO's reluctance to use a map though, I find it strange that they might have, if Evil. Well, if Ash was Revoked, it clearly wasn't with vanilla Revocation, or it'd be in the camp supplies again. If Ash was hit with Revocation+, it would have to also come from our pool of Night Kill players, meaning <Devo, Burnt, Books, Lotus.> But our only known players with Revocation+ (emphasis on known) are Ash (dead), and Randby (whom Gears attests to as having collected the Book of Warding.) [ @Sart - Say Gears uses Making+ and is hit by Vigor+ - would he still see Randby taking the Book of Warding? And would the Book of Warding still be there the next day?] Though I've asked Sart about a paranoid scenario, I stress this isn't much better, as the pool of known players with Vigor+ include Books, myself, and Randby. I ascribe low probability to that, though we'll know tonight for sure. I suspect that Ash simply died with the Shadowblaze. What is Team Evil's strategy at the moment? God, I wish I knew. Either they're Warding to gain Village cred, which would give us the <Araris, Burnt, Randby> pool, or they're hiding among the semi-vocals, which would give us the <Devo, Lotus, Mist, Books> pool. Burnt and Randby, I'd argue, exist in both pools. If they're Warding for Village cred, I feel like the only way to explain Team Evil's strategy is to say they're focusing on outnumbering/parity with the Village and then using that tactic to gain control of the Defense and take it down. If they're hiding among the semi-vocals, we'd be looking for semi-engaged peripherals - in that regard, Mist and Books appear more favourable in my eyes. I already have previously mentioned my light Village read on Books, and my current (defeasible) sense of Mist is that Mist hasn't even been trying to ingratiate herself with the Village, and this complete indifference is not something I'd expect from an Evil player, though it has to be said Mist seems to be switching that up of late. I semi-disagree with Archer's D3 grinch read because my sense is that Lotus's Devo vote would never have triggered a counter-train anyway, whereas I'm surprised Araris didn't bus Connie, as is a known tendency for Evil Araris. (Village Araris on the other hand, has been known to stick to his guns and ignore existing trains on an Evil player - see LG68.) But I really, badly need to finish my analysis and relook everything at this point. Which I will do, it's just been busy. I'll say upfront that my vote on Burnt is honestly a mix of gut, a desire to create a three-way tie to see what happens and who wants to move the tie, and nothing in particular shifts me in one way or another. I had a very negative reaction when Burnt suddenly PMed me D4 to ask why Striker was still alive and that she didn't like that in the middle of the TUO train. At that time, TJ felt Burnt was trying to get back into the game. My gut felt as though she was trying to trigger my known paranoia or distrust, and the timing was interesting. I told her that if TUO flipped Evil, I might be more gung-ho on Striker, but I was going to see how it went. Chronologically, this was a bit before Reading's post here - about 2-3 hours. But by this point, I feel as though it's clear TUO had decided to get bussed as he just asked for a vote count, rather than making much of an attempt at defense. In fact, honestly, it was really perfunctory. But most of the early voters - except Araris - have already died and been confirmed as Village, so I guess if anything, this could point back at Araris too. I don't like Lotus's non-commitment to votes, which is (to me), a vibe I'm getting off her posts. But then she's been semi-disengaged as well in general so I don't know if that's an Evil thing or just a 'this game isn't clicking' thing. And I feel as though Devotary's actions, while helpful, aren't really clear-cut Village either. I get the thing about Araris's actions being Village, but even a deepwolf has to bite at some point. There's a point past which continuously helping the Village out in terms of actions just makes you a Villager because the strategic pay-off isn't there. I feel as though Araris has hit that for me - anything in my head that says 'but-' is generally Urbain paranoia and also the knowledge that everyone keeps talking about Araris's kayana-Evil rep. I guess we'll see later on if I've overwritten wise paranoia or if I've learned to stop letting the trauma of Wyrm and the teachings of Gamma get in the way of what I need to do. Ultimately, I think the issue for me is if we go back to the knowledge that one of Randby and Burnt has Warding+: why aren't players with Warding+ Warding? Why did it take so long, for the game to reach crunch point? Will any of the other known players with Warding+ who I'm not currently outing (but you know who you are) Ward tonight, if WC strength hits 4? That's a place where I stop and ask because it doesn't really feel right to me, but I haven't had the time to dig into why it doesn't feel right, and as I said, I'm currently redoing my analysis. As it stands, I think I am a little happier to go for Burnt, maybe, but this could easily shift. I'm okay with the Devo-Lotus-Burnt triad, but I need to really have the time to do my re-evaluations properly or risk tunneling. And yeah, we need more people discussing, in a nutshell. Some questions: Mist, why didn't you use your Map earlier? Lotus, Randby, Devo, Burnt, y u no Ward earlier? Araris, why Devotary? Archer, just why Books, did you get the specialisation? Gears, why do you Village read Burnt? I need to get back to my work. I intend to commit to finishing analysis and finalising a vote before rollover.] Edited February 17, 2021 by Kasimir missed a bracket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 Why meeeee I'm not the one killing you guys I swear! I'm nice! I've only ever done like one thing other than item grabbing ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: Why meeeee I'm not the one killing you guys I swear! I'm nice! I've only ever done like one thing other than item grabbing ever! [OOC: That's what you said the last time before you killed my Lover You people really give a guy trust issues, you know.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mist Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Mist, why didn't you use your Map earlier? I didn't have a map earlier? I tried to grab one once, but I failed Reads coming. I think. But sleep is good and I need to do it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mist said: I didn't have a map earlier? I tried to grab one once, but I failed [OOC: Oof, my bad - it was italicised on my chart, which is the notation for a claim and I missed it. But thank you for the catch!] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: That's what you said the last time before you killed my Lover You people really give a guy trust issues, you know.] To be fair I hadn't done anything The body I inhabited, maybe #pinchhitterlife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, Kasimir said: This gives us a narrow pool of players who could logically have put in the Night Kill: namely <Devo, Burnt, Books, Lotus.> Of this group, I would say I have a slight trust of Books, which leaves me with Lotus, Devo, and Burnt in the main suspect pool. Let's take a slight aside. Could Ash have been Revoked? (Since the Map was used, we know he couldn't have been hit by Vigor or Vigor+, unless someone else was using a Map within the Devo - Burnt - Books - Lotus pool, which would imply they started with one. But our only known players with Revocation+ (emphasis on known) are Ash (dead), and Randby (whom Gears attests to as having collected the Book of Warding.) Say Gears uses Making+ and is hit by Vigor+ - would he still see Randby taking the Book of Warding? And would the Book of Warding still be there the next day?] God, I wish I knew. Either they're Warding to gain Village cred, which would give us the <Araris, Burnt, Randby> pool, or they're hiding among the semi-vocals, which would give us the <Devo, Lotus, Mist, Books> pool. Burnt and Randby, I'd argue, exist in both pools. If they're Warding for Village cred, I feel like the only way to explain Team Evil's strategy is to say they're focusing on outnumbering/parity with the Village and then using that tactic to gain control of the Defense and take it down. If they're hiding among the semi-vocals, we'd be looking for semi-engaged peripherals - in that regard, Mist and Books appear more favourable in my eyes. I don't like Lotus's non-commitment to votes, which is (to me), a vibe I'm getting off her posts. But then she's been semi-disengaged as well in general so I don't know if that's an Evil thing or just a 'this game isn't clicking' thing. And I feel as though Devotary's actions, while helpful, aren't really clear-cut Village either. I get the thing about Araris's actions being Village, but even a deepwolf has to bite at some point. There's a point past which continuously helping the Village out in terms of actions just makes you a Villager because the strategic pay-off isn't there. Lotus, Randby, Devo, Burnt, y u no Ward earlier? I did not start with a map. I'd assume a making+ that got blocked by vigor+ would just report the target took no action, and that wouldn't have stopped Randby from taking the book. I don't think 'Warding for village cred' and 'semi-vocal' are mutually exclusive pools, or that all the elims have to be in one pool (although activity is correlated with my higher trusts). Nothing about one strategy precludes the other. I know that in LG 57 Sart called the game when the elims outnumbered the village on the assumption that if the elims controlled the exe it wouldn't be possible for the village to maintain a defense. I'd assume there would also be a point where the elims could win this game without ever overrunning the camp. So four people in the night kill pool unless Gears is evil, which shall be dismissed unless the other three are all villagers. My read of Lotus is pretty much the same from last cycle except that with Reading being village the fact that Lotus was a countertrain to Connie D3 isn't village indicative. I don't remember a lot about Books other than the Shadowblaze thing, and for Books and Burnt both the early votes without much indication of independent reasoning. I'll get to those later so I can actually post this. I was saving my chalk for when it would be really necessary, and then chalkling strength just never reached dangerous levels. And then I blew all my chalk in a single cycle and have had to resupply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: I don't think 'Warding for village cred' and 'semi-vocal' are mutually exclusive pools, or that all the elims have to be in one pool (although activity is correlated with my higher trusts). Nothing about one strategy precludes the other. [OOC: I've generally been using it as an inclusive 'or', yeah. I note when the suspect pools overlap, as they do in Burnt and Randby, as I think that's definitely a possibility to track. Another question I've been asking myself as I redo the analysis: what has Team Evil been doing with their actions? I was relooking at the Connie D3 shrek, and it struck me that I'm not sure Connie was bused so much as the grinch was allowed through. Let's relook at Sart's count: Quote Condensation (6): Archer, StrikerEZ, Illwei, TJ Shade, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir Archer is a claimed Non-Rithmatist, which makes him confirmed Village if the claim is true. (Let's just give it probability .95 to be safe.) I was first vote on Connie and TUO so I guess I have a decent likelihood of being Village >> To reflect the fact we don't have word of GM, I'll italicise these. This makes Devo the last and latest voter on Connie, which isn't unusual for Devo, but this is a train with a significant number of Villagers on it, regardless of Devo's alignment. We know TUO didn't participate in the vote. So where were the Evil players? I ask about what they've been doing with their actions because it strikes me we haven't heard anything about LoVs or LoSes, and unlike us, the Forgotten have little reason to hoard chalk. Are they playing the item hoarding game? The next closest trains: Quote Gears (2): Araris Valerian, STINK Illwei (1): Ventyl Lotus (1): Shard of Reading This seems to point to me that Connie wasn't really strongly bused so much as the Forgotten just sat back and allowed it to happen. (But why? Perhaps one of them was on near the end - it seems to me that before Striker and Devotary, they might have had a chance to draw it to parity with Gears by using LoSes. But we haven't seen any sign, so what have they been doing with their actions?) Compare I suppose to the TUO cycle: Quote The Unknown Order (8): Gears, Ashbringer, Flyingbooks, Araris Valerian, Shard of Reading, TJ Shade, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir Gears (3): The Unknown Order, StrikerEZ, Mist Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Lotus Ventyl (1): Archer StrikerEZ (1): Ventyl Does anyone remember if Evil Devo enjoys busing? Normally, I'd say Devo voting on two Evil players looks pretty good, but Devo's tendency to vote late blunts that, since that could just be a late bus due to the conclusion being foregone by that point. There's technically a Ventyl vote on TUO which I think was missed, since I don't see another way the vote could've gone to Striker. Anyway, I'm still doing link analysis, though I've got a whole lotta nuttin' at the moment. In the meanwhile, please forgive me y'all because I think we're at the point where this needs to be in the open. I feel as though the numbers ain't great, especially given the activity state. This is, in a sense, my Hail Mary pass. Action Claims Drop: Be warned: Heavy images. I asked and got permission to screenshot my spreadsheet. I just did it because why not, and I needed the practice for GMing. Apologies :/ Spoiler Hope you all can make more sense of it than me right now. Edited to add: This sheet misses that Randby went for the Book of Warding, according to Gears. Sorry.] Edited February 17, 2021 by Kasimir 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: @Mist @Random Bystander @Devotary of Spontaneity @Lotus @Flyingbooks @Burnt Spaghetti @Gears Y'all have anything to say? We are over halfway through the cycle, and things are pretty dead here. There are 7 of you, so more of you are village than elim, and right now it would be rather trivial for the elims to control the vote. I'm strongly of the opinion that with this few players left we need everyone to be voting every cycle, otherwise we can't get any information and the last few elims can hide until GriLo. I would be amenable to X-ing Lotus because of 1. instinctive distrust, 2. strange voting patterns. I will note that Lotus is always fairly disengaged, but I just have a negative gut opinion of them for reasons I don't know. I'll probably do an iso of the three Kas mentioned [Lotus, Bubbles, Devotary] at some point in the future since school has been canceled. 10 hours ago, Kasimir said: Gears, why do you Village read Burnt? I genuinely don't recall doing this, but that could just be my terrible memory. As of now, she's a comfortable null with vague confusion. I remember nothing of what they've done and don't really remember what she's said. I would not be opposed to their X. However, I have an instinctive distrust of Lotus that is absent for Bubbles. [Future Gears here, just realised I switched pronouns for the same person in the same paragraph. Is that weird?] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Bystander Posted February 17, 2021 Report Share Posted February 17, 2021 59 minutes ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: I've generally been using it as an inclusive 'or', yeah. I note when the suspect pools overlap, as they do in Burnt and Randby, as I think that's definitely a possibility to track. Another question I've been asking myself as I redo the analysis: what has Team Evil been doing with their actions? I was relooking at the Connie D3 shrek, and it struck me that I'm not sure Connie was bused so much as the grinch was allowed through. Let's relook at Sart's count: Archer is a claimed Non-Rithmatist, which makes him confirmed Village if the claim is true. (Let's just give it probability .95 to be safe.) I was first vote on Connie and TUO so I guess I have a decent likelihood of being Village >> To reflect the fact we don't have word of GM, I'll italicise these. This makes Devo the last and latest voter on Connie, which isn't unusual for Devo, but this is a train with a significant number of Villagers on it, regardless of Devo's alignment. We know TUO didn't participate in the vote. So where were the Evil players? I ask about what they've been doing with their actions because it strikes me we haven't heard anything about LoVs or LoSes, and unlike us, the Forgotten have little reason to hoard chalk. Are they playing the item hoarding game? The next closest trains: This seems to point to me that Connie wasn't really strongly bused so much as the Forgotten just sat back and allowed it to happen. (But why? Perhaps one of them was on near the end - it seems to me that before Striker and Devotary, they might have had a chance to draw it to parity with Gears by using LoSes. But we haven't seen any sign, so what have they been doing with their actions?) Compare I suppose to the TUO cycle: Does anyone remember if Evil Devo enjoys busing? Normally, I'd say Devo voting on two Evil players looks pretty good, but Devo's tendency to vote late blunts that, since that could just be a late bus due to the conclusion being foregone by that point. There's technically a Ventyl vote on TUO which I think was missed, since I don't see another way the vote could've gone to Striker. Anyway, I'm still doing link analysis, though I've got a whole lotta nuttin' at the moment. In the meanwhile, please forgive me y'all because I think we're at the point where this needs to be in the open. I feel as though the numbers ain't great, especially given the activity state. This is, in a sense, my Hail Mary pass. Action Claims Drop: Be warned: Heavy images. I asked and got permission to screenshot my spreadsheet. I just did it because why not, and I needed the practice for GMing. Apologies :/ Reveal hidden contents Hope you all can make more sense of it than me right now. Edited to add: This sheet misses that Randby went for the Book of Warding, according to Gears. Sorry.] Just for future reference, I was able to get the book as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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