Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Shard of Reading]

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

Yes, at first I was going to use it. Then when it was said that camp defense was covered, I changed my action to pass it Gears. You’re completely ignoring the fact that I listened when I was told I didn’t need to use the clock. It feels like you’re pushing for a mis-exe that’s essentially already been cleared up

Sorry, I didn't know that you decided to not use it. I must have missed that. Ventyl

Edit: @Lotus Hello kettle, my name is pot.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Shard of Reading

[Gears]

An iso of Araris Valerian. There were definitely replies in the intervening hours since I started this, but I haven't looked at them for fear the Shard eating it. [Future Gears here: It's been 3 hours. If there haven't been ninjas, I'm disappointed in you but pleased. If there have been, I lament my lack of knowledge as to the events.]

Spoiler

D1

Spoiler

Quote

Well, since the last several games I played with Gears involved me strongly arguing that we shouldn't vote him out D1, and this is the Twilight Zone, guess my vote is on Gears  (but actually, he's just as good a D1 kill as anyone right now). I also think that any discussion about whether to actually kill someone should happen far later in the cycle, after we've had a chance to make some folks uncomfortable.

@Alvron, I guess you need to start grabbing Maps.

Defense is weird. I guess we shouldn't settle on a plan yet, since that will make it harder for the elims to optimize a way to stop us.

Twilight Zone game easy excuse for mix? 

Quote

On 1/28/2021 at 10:34 PM, Ashbringer said:

Anyone who wants a book should do what they want and not trust Striker and Books just because there is absolutely no reason not to trust them so far.

In the previous incarnation of this game, elim!me went after the Shadowblaze publicly because it was so strong. I think elims would be decently likely to go after at least one book, so villagers should be fine with going after books, even if another player has said they are doing the same.

Supportive of everyone mobbing the Books. 

Quote

Perhaps we could look to the Gods of Luck and Chance for the camps defense tonight. If everyone takes a 1/4 chance and protects on success, we should get roughly 4 village defense, which seems about right.

I am against the RNG plan. I do not know if that bias is making me see this in a negative light.

Quote

Actually, it turns out that with a 1/5 chance of each villager protecting, there is only a ~10% chance that the camp gets overrun. The average amount of wasted chalk would be 1.54. If we decided to go with this plan, we could flex the probability higher or lower depending on which number people are uncomfortable with. I suppose the question is, is there anyone that wouldn't go along with my plan if the village agreed to it? And is 10% a comfortable margin of failure? My suggestion of 1/4 odds cuts that in half, but increases the amount of wasted chalk on average to 2.31.

Math for amount of wasted chalk:

  Hide contents

sum (17 choose n)(n-2)p^n(1-p)^(17-n) from n=3 to 17, where p is the decimal probability of protection per player

Edit: We could also easily adjust this if some players don't want to do it, but the majority do.

Mathematics always draws me in. Warning: Bias.

Quote

  On 1/29/2021 at 2:33 PM, Gears said:

The problem with the RNG plan is a lack of culpability. There is no reason to actually do anything because there is no blame. We can assign people the goal of taking or using items and have them randomly do it in the day or night to prevent being roleblocked by elims. Alternatively, we can make lots of small groups that each must scrounge up some amount of Defense from their members each cycle. Also, remember to assume that the elims will never use any item to up the Defense and adjust accordingly.

I don't think there is an entire lack of culpability. We can ask who did, in fact, add to the defense the following day. While some elims might lie, villagers wouldn't, and that is another data point that can help us out. The plan is emphasizes protecting the camp over finding elims because (IMO) the risks of letting the camp get overrun are significantly higher than the chance that we learn something useful from a coordinated defense. I also think people should do sort of whatever they want with items, at least for now. We can sort out who all is still able to protect next cycle.

A point against the RNG plan: It doesn't ensure anything. It could be my bias against RNG for our protection, but proposing the RNG plan makes me think worse of Araris.

Quote

Well, if it were allowed by the rules, there would be an argument to be made for no vote today. But it isn't. No vote minimum and ties are random. Somebody is getting killed, so we best do something with it instead of wasting the opportunity.

  On 1/29/2021 at 2:58 PM, STINK said:

you know people say this every game right

^

Good point, good point.

Quote

On 1/29/2021 at 3:02 PM, Flyingbooks said:

Since there's no vote minimum, if nobody votes is the exe chosen completely at random?

For better or for worse, I'm voting, so that's no longer a relevant question.

Alas.

Quote

Hmm. That's different than the original posted rules, which I guess most of us have been referencing.

Discrepancies abound.

Quote

The use the elims have for those items is twofold. First, they can look good by taking them. Second, actual villagers will lose access to those items.

Araris has taken Defense items and used Defense items. Cross-apply argument above...

Quote

  On 1/29/2021 at 11:40 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Araris: He feels like he’s really trying to figure out the best way to handle the protection of the camp, even if I have my concerns about his method. This is very slight right now.

  On 1/29/2021 at 11:22 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Araris: Gut vil. That can't possibly go wrong.

Thread pocket accomplished .

My vote on Gears had decent reasoning when I made it, and I haven’t really seen any reason to move it. Like I’ve said, I’ve spent enough cycles diverting from a D1 Gears kill, and this was a good opportunity to create pressure early. I’m sort of suspicious (of the general population) that nobody has been pushing strongly for any targets (Gears or otherwise).

Edit: Although Matrim has a couple of votes now. That feels a bit better.

Gears reasoning: Opposite of standard action. Hmm...

Quote

  On 1/30/2021 at 2:22 PM, Alvron said:

I hate this.  I hate it, I hate it, I hate it.  

There is a chance at a tied vote and I'm not allowed to make one as that's not my playstyle this game.  

Now, if someone else was to tie it up..... please  

Having already made an offering to the Gods of Luck and Chance this game, I feel like this would be in character for me, but I'm on the wrong side of things, unfortunately.

Fortis Fortuna adiuvat. 

N1

Spoiler

Quote

Hmm, thoughts on the vote later. It seems like the plan for defense is my RNG plan. I think both 1/4 and 1/5 are comfortable numbers to use for this, so each person could probably choose which one they want to personally use, with the lower number if you have an action you’d otherwise prefer to take. Just be sure to honor your result or we could get overrun.

I see @Alvron wants that gun in the supply pronto .

Nothing of substance.

Quote

If we only need one success, then yeah, 1/6 sounds good.

I grow concerned.

Quote

 On 1/31/2021 at 8:53 PM, Lotus said:

Could the Elims have just forgotten to put an action in? 

Possibly. It could be a valid strategy for the elims to just not kill, since they have an alternate win condition.

Concurrence.

D2

Spoiler

Quote

normal!Araris is trying to take control. I sense myself slipping into the shadows with each additional post.

I will say that my PM with Striker gave me village vibes. He was uncomfortable with my RNG scheme, but not in a way that I'd expect an elim to be. But I'm pretty inexperienced at reading people from PMs, so I could be totally off here.

Note the trust of Striker.

Quote

Not feeling well today, so I probably won't contribute much to discussion until tomorrow.

Alas.

Quote

Okay, I think I'm mostly caught up, although I'm not entirely sure why Matrim isn't on the table today. I have a stronger suspicion of him now than I did during D1. If Matrim is elim, then Illwei is pretty suspicious. But there is no reason for elim!Illwei to swing the vote off of village!Mat. However, I think elim!Illwei might have voted on Bystander rather than Danex, since Bystander already had a vote. The hole in this argument is that we generally don't vote out new players D1. So basically, Illwei/Matrim could be e/e, but I'd prefer to vote out Matrim first of the two. And I'd say that Ash might be a stronger connection with Mat than with Illwei. Mat did have a Bucket of Acid, but elim!Mat would probably want to use that ASAP anyways.

Based on some responses to my GoLaC Defense plan, I have slight village reads on Reading, Quinn, Striker (via PM), and Gears. They all expressed discomfort with my plan in some shape or form, which I think an elim would be less likely to do.

As pointed out, Kas and Unknown both drew Lines of Warding, and appear to have been the only two. So that puts them as decent village for me. I also don't think Kas would fit the profile of an elim team that didn't send in a kill

I'm rather suspicious of Archer, who gets my vote for now, due to being a current option. His vote jumped around D1 without contributing a whole lot to things. He took a Bribe, which I'm not entirely sure about, but I can definitely see an elim doing. His post with reasons to vote on Illwei gives me vibes of the QF we were elims together in, which is probably where most of my suspicion comes from.

Ventyl has been rubbing me wrong, but that always happens. Given my village reads on Kas/Unknown, Ventyl is my greatest suspect that went for Chalk, and Chalk is helpful for elims.

I have a slight suspicion on Devotary and Ash, but I think that's gut and only slightly puts them below everyone else.

Rough ordering of players, least to most suspicious:

  Hide contents

Kas
Unknown
Striker
Quinn
Reading
Gears
Anyone not listed (above is village, below is elim)
Devotary
Ash
Ventyl
Archer
Illwei
Matrim

Suspects elim!Matrim [and based on the abrupt swing, I consider it at least mildly justified], trusts Order [they did draw a LoW]. Valid Archer suspicions [I was most suspicious of Archer pre-NR reveal.] Paranoia: EVIL! Logic: Fair.

Quote

 On 2/2/2021 at 11:16 AM, Quinn0928 said:

K, cool! So. Looking at this from an elim perspective, the objective for them is to make sure the Camp is overrun, right? In order to do that, they need to avoid being exed and get as many mix's as possible. Sooo they need to be trusted, right? Obviously a D1 bus wouldn't be the worst idea since it doesn't lower the Hoard Strength, but that's very costly and only works for one person. So... what if they protected the camp N1 and made sure that there was a way to confirm it? The Camp almost certainly wasn't going to be overrun N1 since every villager had chalk and the Strength was so low. So the elims take a Lantern (TJ--or I suppose myself) and then one of them (Kas or TUO) draws a Line. The Lantern user gets a vil read for accurately reporting Defense, and the Line-drawer gets vil cred for Defending, but the elims don't actually lose anything but a Piece of Chalk. Then they can work on taking the other Lanterns (notice there are no more in the Supply and yet no one has claimed to have one) and Chalk and killing any villagers who had Lanterns (TJ or me--either one would explain the blocked kill since we both protected).

Scale of 1-10 how paranoid does that sound?

The only issue I have with this is that it would mean only a single villager rolled to protect, which I find rather unlikely. I do find it interesting that Kas and Unknown were the two players that grabbed Chalk, and also happened to both defend the Camp. I agree with the principle that the elims could have protected the camp to earn trust, which is part of why I retain my suspicion of Matrim.

Paranoia: This definitely happened. Logic: Sound point, ignoring the fact that actually following the plan was practically out of the question. Also, Quinn was right except for the Lantern bit. Also, retains suspicion of Matrim but still auto-trusts Kas and Order...

Quote

Yeah, I'm not going to vote for Archer, even if he's a safe target. He's village (assuming we can confirm the claim), so we don't kill him. That's that. My next choice is Matrim.

The swing away from Matrim was suspicious. Valid.

Quote

 On 2/2/2021 at 6:26 PM, Flyingbooks said:

Can somebody please summarize what's been going on for me?

We wanted to vote out Archer, but he claimed non-Rithmatist, which was confirmed by Devotary (although not proved). So we are looking elsewhere.

Accurate summary.

N2

Spoiler

Quote

I dumped some acid, so we only need 2 lines of Warding.

Paranoia: Elim strat of feeding Defense to gain trust! Logic: Good, good.

Quote

  On 2/2/2021 at 10:08 PM, Illwei said:

I just don't remember anyone arguing strongly for Mat being village. Connie seemed to trust him- she claimed no action.

But there was a significant D1 vote swing off Matrim. I think it's fair to say that those involved in that swing thought Matrim was village.

Good point.

Quote

I suppose it's worth asking, is there anyone that ignored the RNG defense plan N1? Knowing that can give us a better idea of the chances the Kas and/or Unknown are elims.

I daresay everyone ignored the RNG Defense plan...

Quote

  On 2/3/2021 at 1:02 PM, Ashbringer said:

Well, I didn’t have chalk.

That's good to know. And it would make sense that a lot of people grabbed items, even if they were following the plan. Everyone would only defend on a 1/6 chance.

Claiming to not have Chalk is probably bad, since it narrows down who the elims want to roleblock.

First point good, second point seems valid but paranoid

Quote

On 2/3/2021 at 4:17 PM, Kasimir said:

[OOC: I mean, honestly, I've historically never agreed with most of Araris's plans, especially the early ones, so he should probably have smelled a rat when I didn't say anything. I just got smarter about fighting over them while I'm supposed to be relaxed 

Plus, as the last son of House Urbain, I just have a huge distrust of everyone so I wanted at least one person I knew for sure was Warding.] 

Well, in retrospect the plan was pretty terrible, since apparently everyone just did their own thing. I would also object that you agreed to the plan, and a specific probability in the thread. I also had a perfectly good secondary plan, but mine didn't meet enough opposition to make it worth proposing.

And so the RNG plan failed. As expected.

Quote

 On 2/3/2021 at 4:49 PM, Quinn0928 said:

What was it, out of curiosity?

Similar to what the person in contact with Striker is doing. Let people who want to protect just do so, and then either claim in thread to have received a PM from a protecting player (this would be a lie), or PM a somewhat trusted player and ask them to say the same thing. We could get exactly 1 extra defend this way, and if the defenses got disrupted, it would narrow down potential leaks by quite a bit.

A tolerable strategy.

Quote

On 2/3/2021 at 6:25 PM, Mist said:

I think it's possible the Shadowblaze started in play, since people started with Specializations and could have started with items. So be careful

I'm pretty sure this is not the case, since we can account for the camp defense without the existence of the Shadowblaze. If someone had a Shadowblaze, then the claims would not match the actual defense.

I concur.

Quote

On 2/3/2021 at 6:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so...what if I just say who the two people were right as the cycle is ending? Right as the clock hits 8. Elims won't have a chance to change their orders, and I'll have given out the info in case I end up dying.

This seems like a good idea. I think I killed Striker in the last iteration of this game to hide my own lack of a Line of Warding, and this plan removes that option from the elims.

Murder as a silencing method is valid. Share information just in case. Paranoia: Striker/Araris elim team! Logic: Could just be chatter.

D3

Spoiler

Quote

On 2/3/2021 at 10:17 PM, Condensation said:

That's true. But what about the Lantern? That's important too.

Not really. We have a couple claimed already. I would say the only less important thing in the supply right now is the Bribe.

Good point.

Quote

I'm trying to make sense of the votes we've had so far. People that stand out are:

@Lotus, who voted on Archer post-claim

@Shard of Reading, who has only voted once on Lotus, and didn't mention the above (which I would think deserves a mention)

@StrikerEZ, who voted Matrim D1, but then on Illwei D2

@Gears and @The Unknown Order, who haven't yet voted. Gears in particular stands out, since he isn't new

@Burnt Spaghetti, who voted to save Matrim D1 but not D2

I'd be curious to hear people's thoughts on and explanations of these things. My initial impression is that Lotus is probably village, since that would be a major slip for an elim. Similar with Reading, I would think an elim would mention the thing about Lotus.

I'm not sure about Striker. He is on my village reads list, and I trusted him with my LoW last night, but that doesn't mean a whole lot.

I'm actually pretty suspicious of Gears at this point. I'm pretty sure the lack of a N1 kill fits his profile, and the lack of votes isn't helping the village.

Burnt is also sort of suspicious, for similar reasons to Matrim, but she isn't on my village list. I'm not sure she fits the no N1 kill profile (I'm assuming this was intentional), but the inconsistent stance toward Matrim is weird.

New player ordering:

  Hide contents

Lotus
Reading
Kas
Unknown
Striker
Anyone not listed (above is village, below is elim)
Devotary
Ash
Ventyl
Archer
Illwei
Burnt
Gears

Assumption of no N1 kill to predicate Gears suspicion. Establishing lack of Striker trust early on. Paranoia thinks the worst. Bubbles is that suspicious?

Quote

 On 2/4/2021 at 10:02 PM, Illwei said:

Er, what was the slip you're talking about? 

Lotus voted on Archer, a confirmed villager. Basically, I don't think she was paying attention, which I generally read as village.

That is... not what I would gather from that interaction, but valid interpretation.

Quote

I do not have the Warding specialization.

Alright then.

Quote

 On 2/5/2021 at 11:43 AM, Ventyl said:

I not think Gears is an elim, because unless I’ve missed something, they haven’t really done anything to be considered suspicious. All they’ve done is claim elim, which at this point is normal for them.

I guess part of what I'm saying is that Gears hasn't done much of anything (suspicious or not). I find that suspicious in itself. What about Gears fitting the profile of no N1 kill?

I don't usually do anything. I'm dead weight that does shoddy analysis and nothing much of use. And the other point is moot. Hyperfocusing on this one aspect... 

Quote

On 2/5/2021 at 11:47 AM, TJ Shade said:

Why do you believe that there was no N1 kill? Why is that possibility more likely than elims hitting me or Quinn?

The lack of a N1 kill is a possibility, one that has strategic viability with this set of rules. So I think it is worth considering when making reads.

True, but Araris hasn't considered any other possibilities.

Quote

Yeah, that's where I stand right now.

Context: This is about Gears no NK N1. And I resent this accusation! 

N3

Spoiler

Quote

  On 2/5/2021 at 11:41 PM, TJ Shade said:

Right, as the remaining public Lantern holder, I feel like I'll get killed tonight. Add to that, I'm not comfortable with the fact that it doesn't seem like the other two have claimed it to anyone. So I'll be doing my usual IKYKing of the elims. Elims, I may or may not protect myself using Line of Forbiddance tonight. Chalk strength isn't much and you know I've got Chalk. 

I claimed during the day (or at least I confirmed the defense of 6), but nobody seemed to notice.

Later, this is revealed to have never happened. I don't know how to interpret this. I also don't like Araris being the only Lantern holder. 

Quote

On 2/6/2021 at 1:38 AM, Illwei said:

mmmm 22 minutes? :P.

EDIT:

@Araris Valerian

Went through your D3 posts, nothing about how much defence we had at all?

Hmm, you’re right. I guess I typed up the post, but never actually sent it. I have a bad habit of doing that. I can confirm the camp defense was 6 last night.

I don't like this, but I can't find a justification for elim!Araris over vil!Araris.

D4

Spoiler

Quote

  On 2/6/2021 at 8:50 PM, TJ Shade said:

Camp Strength was just 2 by the way. I was one of the guys who drew the Line of Warding and I've got another player claiming to have drawn a Line of Warding. Anyone else who didn't claim to me protected the camp? 

I can vouch for the 2 defense.

No reason to lie in either case.

Quote

On 2/7/2021 at 0:13 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Kasimir I am confused why you’re more suspicious of TUO than Gears.

I sort of agree with Kas here. Gears is suspicious for the reasons you gave, but TUO jumping on Gears feels very opportunistic. While I agree that Gears probably could have reacted better, I also think there is some justification for a strong reaction to your dishonesty (which is noticeable, if not obvious, in retrospect). In fact, I think your reaction to Gears is also a bit opportunistic. I think elim!Gears would have thought out things more. I’ll stick my vote on Striker for now, and think Striker/TUO could be e/e.

Ah yes... This post. Says Gears sus, TUO sus, but vote Striker. This post is the sole justification for all of the bad vibes. 

Quote

On 2/7/2021 at 8:43 AM, STINK said:

Alright so elims if you claim to me and help me get valuable items, I can tell you who the other villagers are for exchange, pretty good right?

I'll claim, so go ahead and send me a list of all the players that aren't elims.

Banter.

Quote

  On 2/7/2021 at 11:14 AM, Kasimir said:

Araris - that post on the Striker-Gears clash is incredibly wishy-washy and appears to be extremely gerrymandered towards voting on Striker, coming from a player who has consistently voted on Gears on every single day (D1, D3, mentioned as suspicion N1 -Edit: Correction, I meant mentioned as suspicion N3, which just makes this look worse in my opinion) Gears showed up as a vote candidate, including against Connie. There's a shift from 'Gears is suspicious' to 'Gears has strong justification' - really? What is it? Because the only way Gears shows up as having strong justification is if and only if Gears thinks Striker is Evil. Lying about the clock is not itself sufficient grounds to deem a player Evil. And for the record, I know two other players who tried for the clock and failed. Unclear to me how the deception would've been obvious. So the bottom line of that post: 'Gears is suspicious, TUO is suspicious, but I'm going to go for Striker, who has done the same thing TUO did in my analysis, and also, Evil Gears should've been more thoughtful.' - Evil Gears does have a reason to: instigating a FFA

My vote on Striker over Gears comes from my strong opinion that elims often prioritize hiding over voting out key villagers. Gears's move doesn't help him hide, and stinks of overeager villager. Striker and TUO made "safer" votes that feel like predatory elims.

On a related note, votes and suspicions in the early game tend to be ill-informed. In particular, my D1 vote on Gears had no justification at all, and we talked about my current mindset, which I think you can agree was somewhat wishy-washy prior to the events of today, which I think carry more weight than the N1 kill profile thing.

Contradicts earlier statement that D1 Gears vote had "decent reasoning". Why not TUO instead of Striker? So many questions. 

Quote

Okay, I agree with basically all of Striker’s reads (barring Ash and maybe Ventyl), which is enough for me to retract my vote for now. I’d rather vote out TUO as things stand. But honestly, I’m sort of comfortable with any of TUO, Striker, or Gears this cycle.

Retracting post-opposition, willingness for all possible candidates.

Quote

  On 2/8/2021 at 9:31 AM, Shard of Reading said:

Now, I think that there is a possibility that the striker/gears stuff is v/v. (That seems the most likely) If it is, then The Unkown Order is elim.

Could you explain why Striker/Gears being v/v necessitates TUO being elim? And why does TUO being village require one of Gears/Striker to be elim?

Valid point. Reading seems a bit... well-informed, shall we say.

N4

Spoiler

Quote

On 2/8/2021 at 9:47 PM, Kasimir said:

but this takes busing to new extremes

They said that when I bussed Szeth in my last elim game .

I'd guess that Gears is actually village at this point, and I'm hoping my initial read on Striker last turn was actually correct.

The problem is Araris's reputation for bussing. All information is through that lens. I am genuinely leaning towards elim!Araris and elim!Striker team at this point, but that predicates on elim!Striker, so this is reinforcing Striker suspicions.

Quote

  On 2/9/2021 at 5:55 PM, Ventyl said:

Bold Mine. 

I’m giving the Clock away. If you block me, then I keep it...? Also, why are you planning on voting me first if Books is your most suspicious and I’m not even listed? Getting mad elim vibes from this. Reads a lot like an elim looking for an easy mis-CM in my opinion.

You realize Archer is the non-Rithmatist, right? Since there has been no Shadowblaze yet, he's village.

Correct.

D5 [I'm so glad I can multiquote this day and wish I could quote a locked thread. However, it doesn't include quotes in the post in the thing, which annoys me.]

Spoiler

On 2/9/2021 at 9:57 PM, Araris Valerian said:

I'm pretty sure Ventyl is village. Every game I pay with him he sets off all my elim radar things, and then he's village. I also get the impression he's not paying tons of attention this game. I can't think of another explanation for trying to throw shade on the only confirmed villager during the Night.

And my vote is going on Striker. My gut reaction to his post against Gears last cycle was that he was elim. His reads list made me back off, but I think since Gears is much more likely to be village at this point, I'm more comfortable with sticking to my gut. I also agree with Kas that TUO would have been more likely to make that vote following a teammate (and if I'm wrong, supsicious!Kas will be after me).

I agree that Ventyl seems village. My instincts are saying bus. I suppose we should just X Striker anyways and then reevaluate in post. 

On 2/9/2021 at 11:01 PM, Araris Valerian said:

 On 2/9/2021 at 10:32 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I just want to say: I think it’s highly likely that I could be the elims’ scapegoat right now.

What do you mean by this? I'm pretty sure Kas and I, and maybe Gears, are the only players that have mentioned any suspicion of you. And I'm pretty sure the only way elim!me would have voted for you early last cycle over TUO is if you were also elim. The TUO bus would have been way too easy to pass up. Kas has seemed quite village to me, especially with the vote on Connie, and I'm leaning village on Gears, despite my earlier concerns, since I doubt TUO would have gone for a bus like that. So I actually think no elims are voting for you, which makes me a bit more comfortable with where things stand.

While I agree, my Paranoia insists on speculating about E/E interactions and bussing. Also, I just think Striker's an elim anyways.

On 2/10/2021 at 0:21 AM, Araris Valerian said:

Oh, yeah. I’ve been taking TJ for granted. We had 1 defense last night.

Alright then.

On 2/10/2021 at 10:00 AM, Araris Valerian said:

Some people are suspicious of Striker, and have given reasons why. Striker has given his refutation of those reasons. And Kas wants the thread to be more than 3 people tunneling on each other.

Good summary.

On 2/10/2021 at 11:08 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I think you’ve held back from being very involved. Playing too safe is suspicious in and of itself, since villagers that are doing their best to find the elims tend to make mistakes and do things that draw suspicion.

Good points about Random Bystander.

21 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The confusion here might be that some of what Sart puts in our PMs is a bit tongue-in-cheek.

Good point.

20 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

There is a difference between an item being given to a thief (i.e., stolen), and given to The Thief (taken by STINK). So I by no means think Sart is fallible .

Good point.

14 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

If I'm bussing, that means Striker's elim, so I'm happy with that. Although, if Striker is elim, I'm going to be somewhat suspicious of everyone who has accused me of bussing so far. Seems like an easy way to frame me given my reputation recently.

It really is, Araris. 

 

Non-post reasons for trusting Araris: I've only ever scanned him to be doing villagery things. +1 Defense, taking Acid. Could be elim trickle-feeding Defense and stockpiling items, could be genuine villager.

Conclusion: Araris is either a villager with that one strange post about Gears, TUO, and Striker, or a bussing elim. Either way, I think Striker is an elim. As an aside, I would like to note that I want a second Lantern so we can ensure Araris's veracity. End result: Uneasy null. That one D4 post obliterates the tentative village read.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Gears
There were always closing brackets...

[Random Bystander]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

An iso of Araris Valerian. There were definitely replies in the intervening hours since I started this, but I haven't looked at them for fear the Shard eating it. [Future Gears here: It's been 3 hours. If there haven't been ninjas, I'm disappointed in you but pleased. If there have been, I lament my lack of knowledge as to the events.]

  Reveal hidden contents

D1

  Reveal hidden contents

Twilight Zone game easy excuse for mix? 

Supportive of everyone mobbing the Books. 

I am against the RNG plan. I do not know if that bias is making me see this in a negative light.

Mathematics always draws me in. Warning: Bias.

A point against the RNG plan: It doesn't ensure anything. It could be my bias against RNG for our protection, but proposing the RNG plan makes me think worse of Araris.

Good point, good point.

Alas.

Discrepancies abound.

Araris has taken Defense items and used Defense items. Cross-apply argument above...

Gears reasoning: Opposite of standard action. Hmm...

Fortis Fortuna adiuvat. 

N1

  Reveal hidden contents

Nothing of substance.

I grow concerned.

Concurrence.

D2

  Reveal hidden contents

Note the trust of Striker.

Alas.

Suspects elim!Matrim [and based on the abrupt swing, I consider it at least mildly justified], trusts Order [they did draw a LoW]. Valid Archer suspicions [I was most suspicious of Archer pre-NR reveal.] Paranoia: EVIL! Logic: Fair.

Paranoia: This definitely happened. Logic: Sound point, ignoring the fact that actually following the plan was practically out of the question. Also, Quinn was right except for the Lantern bit. Also, retains suspicion of Matrim but still auto-trusts Kas and Order...

The swing away from Matrim was suspicious. Valid.

Accurate summary.

N2

  Reveal hidden contents

Paranoia: Elim strat of feeding Defense to gain trust! Logic: Good, good.

Good point.

I daresay everyone ignored the RNG Defense plan...

First point good, second point seems valid but paranoid

And so the RNG plan failed. As expected.

A tolerable strategy.

I concur.

Murder as a silencing method is valid. Share information just in case. Paranoia: Striker/Araris elim team! Logic: Could just be chatter.

D3

  Reveal hidden contents

Good point.

Assumption of no N1 kill to predicate Gears suspicion. Establishing lack of Striker trust early on. Paranoia thinks the worst. Bubbles is that suspicious?

That is... not what I would gather from that interaction, but valid interpretation.

Alright then.

I don't usually do anything. I'm dead weight that does shoddy analysis and nothing much of use. And the other point is moot. Hyperfocusing on this one aspect... 

True, but Araris hasn't considered any other possibilities.

Context: This is about Gears no NK N1. And I resent this accusation! 

N3

  Reveal hidden contents

Later, this is revealed to have never happened. I don't know how to interpret this. I also don't like Araris being the only Lantern holder. 

I don't like this, but I can't find a justification for elim!Araris over vil!Araris.

D4

  Reveal hidden contents

No reason to lie in either case.

Ah yes... This post. Says Gears sus, TUO sus, but vote Striker. This post is the sole justification for all of the bad vibes. 

Banter.

Contradicts earlier statement that D1 Gears vote had "decent reasoning". Why not TUO instead of Striker? So many questions. 

Retracting post-opposition, willingness for all possible candidates.

Valid point. Reading seems a bit... well-informed, shall we say.

N4

  Reveal hidden contents

The problem is Araris's reputation for bussing. All information is through that lens. I am genuinely leaning towards elim!Araris and elim!Striker team at this point, but that predicates on elim!Striker, so this is reinforcing Striker suspicions.

Correct.

D5 [I'm so glad I can multiquote this day and wish I could quote a locked thread. However, it doesn't include quotes in the post in the thing, which annoys me.]

  Reveal hidden contents

I agree that Ventyl seems village. My instincts are saying bus. I suppose we should just X Striker anyways and then reevaluate in post. 

While I agree, my Paranoia insists on speculating about E/E interactions and bussing. Also, I just think Striker's an elim anyways.

Alright then.

Good summary.

Good points about Random Bystander.

Good point.

Good point.

It really is, Araris. 

 

Non-post reasons for trusting Araris: I've only ever scanned him to be doing villagery things. +1 Defense, taking Acid. Could be elim trickle-feeding Defense and stockpiling items, could be genuine villager.

Conclusion: Araris is either a villager with that one strange post about Gears, TUO, and Striker, or a bussing elim. Either way, I think Striker is an elim. As an aside, I would like to note that I want a second Lantern so we can ensure Araris's veracity. End result: Uneasy null. That one D4 post obliterates the tentative village read.

As I must have missed the twilight zone post earlier, I'm doing this now.

You are about to enter another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound, but of the mind. A journey into a wonderous land of imagination.

I had to people. I had to. I'll be back later to (try to) do helpful stuff. 

[Kasimir]

8 minutes ago, Gears said:

I would like to note that I want a second Lantern so we can ensure Araris's veracity.

[OOC: I am, for the moment, in contact with a second Lantern bearer. They do not contradict what Araris has claimed. Did you LoM anyone Night One?]

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

For now, I'm going to vote on Araris. He put himself in a perfect position to control the village multiple times over the course of this game (setting up the defense plan, grabbing a lantern and now every other public lantern holder is dead), plus he's constantly gone back and forth on me and Gears. Granted, that second point basically describes myself, but at least when I write a post making Illwei seem suspicious, I don't at the end of it vote Mat instead.

Um, yeah. I don't see any of this as suspicious, except possibly my vote on you. But again, why would elim!me not have just bussed TUO and been done with it? That would have been the superior play by far (as evidenced by you and Kas's reactions), and would fit with my past record better (even though my being aware of this makes it something of an IKYK).

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

Why are you voting for Araris?

I made this post (which quoted and was directed toward Striker):

Spoiler

 

Quote

I sort of agree with Kas here. Gears is suspicious for the reasons you gave, but TUO jumping on Gears feels very opportunistic. While I agree that Gears probably could have reacted better, I also think there is some justification for a strong reaction to your dishonesty (which is noticeable, if not obvious, in retrospect). In fact, I think your reaction to Gears is also a bit opportunistic. I think elim!Gears would have thought out things more. I’ll stick my vote on Striker for now, and think Striker/TUO could be e/e.

The bold is why I voted Striker. Kas found my change from a consistent suspicion of Gears to voting on Striker over him to be suspicious. I still feel like this post justifies the vote reasonably well, but others disagree.

[+Lotus]

30 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

@Lotus Hello kettle, my name is pot.

I despise kettle corn

[Shard of Reading]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

I despise kettle corn

It's a joke about the pot calling the kettle black.

[+Lotus]

Just now, Shard of Reading said:

It's a joke about the pot calling the kettle black.

oh.

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Um, yeah. I don't see any of this as suspicious, except possibly my vote on you. But again, why would elim!me not have just bussed TUO and been done with it? That would have been the superior play by far (as evidenced by you and Kas's reactions), and would fit with my past record better (even though my being aware of this makes it something of an IKYK).

[OOC: I told Wyrm this, but I'm just gonna say this here for the public record - if you, Striker, and Gears are all Villagers and Team Evil is lurking and smirking while we slit each others' throats, I'm gonna flip a chull >:( ]

Edited February 11, 2021 by Kasimir
justification

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: I am, for the moment, in contact with a second Lantern bearer. They do not contradict what Araris has claimed. Did you LoM anyone Night One?]

Good, good. No. I grabbed Chalk in preparation for the future. I never want to be in a scenario where I'm out of Chalk. Actions are as follows: D1: Took Book. N1: Took Chalk. D2: Tried to take Acid. N2: LoM on Araris, saw him draw LoW. D3: Took Chalk. N3: LoM on Striker, saw them take Clock. D4: Took Chalk. N4: LoM on Araris, saw.them take Acid. 

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: I told Wyrm this, but I'm just gonna say this here for the public record - if you, Striker, and Gears are all Villagers and Team Evil is lurking and smirking while we slit each others' throats, I'm gonna flip a chull >:( ]

My entire suspicion of Araris predicates on Striker being an elim, so it's not implausible.

[Ashbringer]

Oi, Second Lantern Holder, it's great that you're in contact with Kas, but could you maybe get in contact with Archer? You know, the player who's 99% confirmed Village and has an ability that will prove their non-conversion?

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

For now, I'm going to vote on Araris. He put himself in a perfect position to control the village multiple times over the course of this game (setting up the defense plan, grabbing a lantern and now every other public lantern holder is dead), plus he's constantly gone back and forth on me and Gears. Granted, that second point basically describes myself, but at least when I write a post making Illwei seem suspicious, I don't at the end of it vote Mat instead.

Um, yeah. I don't see any of this as suspicious, except possibly my vote on you. But again, why would elim!me not have just bussed TUO and been done with it? That would have been the superior play by far (as evidenced by you and Kas's reactions), and would fit with my past record better (even though my being aware of this makes it something of an IKYK).

Hmmmmmmmm.

I'm honestly not that suspicious of Araris, not enough for a vote right now. Maybe looking back or at Gears' megaposts I may change my mind.

But... am I the only one that gets really nervous whenever someone says "why would Elim!me do X"?

[Flyingbooks]

I'm going to vote on Araris for the reasons that I've said before. Now that other people have also had the same suspicions I know that mine aren't just senseless paranoia.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Gears said:

Good, good. No. I grabbed Chalk in preparation for the future. I never want to be in a scenario where I'm out of Chalk. Actions are as follows: D1: Took Book. N1: Took Chalk. D2: Tried to take Acid. N2: LoM on Araris, saw him draw LoW. D3: Took Chalk. N3: LoM on Striker, saw them take Clock. D4: Took Chalk. N4: LoM on Araris, saw.them take Acid. 

[OOC: Sensible. If you're Village, your LoM+ is pretty good for nailing down actions and inconsistencies, so not being out of chalk makes sense.]

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Um, yeah. I don't see any of this as suspicious, except possibly my vote on you. But again, why would elim!me not have just bussed TUO and been done with it? That would have been the superior play by far (as evidenced by you and Kas's reactions), and would fit with my past record better (even though my being aware of this makes it something of an IKYK).

[OOC: I agree with this, but I also see the game as being divided into two blocs of connections right now. You, Ventyl, Gears and Burnt are connected by suspicions of/targeting Striker, which means that if TUO was clumsily trying to implement a team plan to frame Striker (by sheeping), you come out more suspicious for jumping on the provided opportunity, as compared to first mover Gears. I am also somewhat suspicious of your narrow vote diversity, that being said. And it hasn't escaped me that this does leave you as our sole public Lantern bearer. I haven't played with Evil Araris since LG15b despite busing jokes, so I don't have your meta to draw on, only the tactical picture - who set up the Striker frame, who is pouncing on it. You would have come across better for busing TUO immediately, yes, and this is where I agree with you and think it makes sense. But busing TUO wouldn't necessarily have led to the desired outcome, either - painting Striker with suspicion needed more work than just sheeping, IMO, and your arguments helped to go there beyond just TUO sheeping Striker. At the same time, I suppose the more I think about it, the more I feel like this would make Ventyl come out even more suspicious of the three of you, for jumping on Striker and then immediately backpedalling when challenged and jumping on TUO. But then there's also Burnt, who PMed me during D4 to ask why Striker was still alive, which could've been opportunistic framing as well. I'll need to keep thinking as the Turn isn't over yet. I'd mildly associate Devo with this bloc for leaning towards the non-Evil Araris side of things at the moment.

The second bloc of connections would be Striker, Reading, and potentially, Books - Books is tangential because they fall to the 'Araris suss' side of the divide. Reading is connected by defense/framing of Striker as Village, and there's obviously Striker there. (I don't include myself in my analysis because that kind of messes things up.) 

Not impossible Team Evil is using catspaws or just sitting back and let us go at each other, but the issue is that it's really hard to tell which is going on, and we don't really want to LAFO this, for obvious reasons. But I think given the work Team Evil took to set this up, at least one player in the bloc of seven is Evil, which...yeah, probably not rocket science :/

Logic I think would dictate to just do the Striker train - if Striker's Village, then we need to look at those within the bloc of four who were running with the frame. Of all of them, I lean most Village on Gears, which frankly isn't saying much. Not much to go on for Burnt, still have difficulty deciding on Araris, Ventyl, and Devo.

I'm probably overthinking it at this point.

The issue with doing the Araris train is I feel like it's not as informative, to be frank. Say Araris is Evil. Is this enough for us to conclude about Striker's allegiances, or whether Striker was being set-up? After all, our current grinch is heavily D4-based. I guess, maybe? But Araris's known reputation for busing complicates things - if it was anyone else opportunistically jumping on the Striker train, I guess I wouldn't make this assessment,  And yet my gut doesn't feel like Striker is Evil enough, but my gut could be a Darkfriend. Frailty, thy name is Kasimir. I know you told me so, Wyrm >> I'm doing the thing, don't @ me. And now I'm rambling to a ghost. God, this game is taking its psychological toll on me >>

Sart, I'm sorry for changing my mind so many times  On the bright side, I'm doing what I'm supposed to be doing, at least?]

[Mist]

1. Gears: I think maybe village 
2. Ashbringer
3. Lotus
4. Books
5. Archer: now that the Shadowblaze is here, I'll be hesitant about you. Especially since elim teammates could cover for you for a few turns (honestly probably only 2, maaaaaybe 3) once you're converted. Or we could manage to hide the Shadowblaze in the village and everything will be fine. 
6. Burnt
7. Ventyl: I think they're maybe village
8. Araris: I'm kind of sus of him. Idk. He's good at remaining hidden. And that's part of why.
9. Striker: I'm not sure. I kinda don't want to exe them. 
10. Reading
11. Random
12. Devotary
13. Kas: I think they're good.
14. Mist: hi. 

I'd like to note: if I decide to do analysis, it mentally helps contribute to my inactivity because I feel like I need to do analysis, then don't post because I don't feel like doing analysis, then it continues. 

I want to assume there were 5 elims, but 6 is also possible, especially if the village had more abilities or items to start. 

I hope the elims are not lurking. But I'm kind of concerned they're lurking.

Honestly the other people haven't left much of an impression so far. 

(RNG said Gears again but I think I just won't.)

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Mist said:

 

1. Gears: I think maybe village 
2. Ashbringer
3. Lotus
4. Books
5. Archer: now that the Shadowblaze is here, I'll be hesitant about you. Especially since elim teammates could cover for you for a few turns (honestly probably only 2, maaaaaybe 3) once you're converted. Or we could manage to hide the Shadowblaze in the village and everything will be fine. 
6. Burnt
7. Ventyl: I think they're maybe village
8. Araris: I'm kind of sus of him. Idk. He's good at remaining hidden. And that's part of why.
9. Striker: I'm not sure. I kinda don't want to exe them. 
10. Reading
11. Random
12. Devotary
13. Kas: I think they're good.
14. Mist: hi. 

I'd like to note: if I decide to do analysis, it mentally helps contribute to my inactivity because I feel like I need to do analysis, then don't post because I don't feel like doing analysis, then it continues. 

I want to assume there were 5 elims, but 6 is also possible, especially if the village had more abilities or items to start. 

I hope the elims are not lurking. But I'm kind of concerned they're lurking.

Honestly the other people haven't left much of an impression so far. 

(RNG said Gears again but I think I just won't.)

While you're here, what actions have you been doing?

[Mist]

I've grabbed items every action, except one day I forgot and two times I failed to grab the item I tried to grab. 

I'm not convinced of the benefit of revealing the items I've got.

[Gears]

Everything that has been said today because I'm certain that I missed something.

1. Ash: Shadowblaze
2. Kas: Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum. Gleaming bronze and gunpowder in memory of the fallen ones.
3. Gears: Plots. GET THE SHADOWBLAZE.
4. Kas: Book of Warding significantly less important than implied. [Good point.]
5. Archer: If X elim, may grab gun on way out to kill villager. [Clever] Votes Ventyl and asks about the Clock.
6. Striker: Death?
7. Lotus: Cheers to the Thief
8. Devotary: Roleblock X target [good idea, someone get on that and hit Striker]. Shadowblaze must be verified by Lanterns. Ventyl does not have the Clock. [Good to know.]
9. Ash: Double map! Willing to kill any of Striker, Gears, Ventyl.
10. Kas: Delightful RP with puns ["Wyrmed"] and the cold, bitter ache that comes from knowing that this is the end. 
11. Striker: Questions legitimacy. Votes Ventyl for prior reasons [Clock, general behavior, etc?]. Willing to slaughter Gears, Devotary, or Araris as well.
12. Araris: Thinks vil!Ventyl. Votes Striker for post against Gears.
13. Striker: Scapegoat? Elims killed suspicions, left alive, talkative. Also, sheep villager strategically superior.
14. Araris: Disagrees.
15. Striker: Thinks elims setting up for easy mix.
16. Kas: Ventyl and Striker not elims together, Ventyl hard to read, Books confusing since Order could use their LoW to claim actions but still suspicious [good point, could just not have thought of it? But good to note], noting Ash, Reading, Random as well. Notes that TUO hasn't been trying to implicate for entire game, so why start now? [Another point: The Order vote was made 2 minutes after Striker's. Not enough time to confer about implications and/or get a countermand], no benefit for hanging Order for Striker, vote patterns, conjures suspicion of Condensation, implications about TUO, etc. [Kas is, as always, brilliant. All hail.]
17. Araris: 1 Defense last night. [No reason to lie.]
18. Striker: Argument as follows: Elim should sheep villager in general, not elims [context of accusation makes this counterargument somewhat nullified], tunneling, was busy, didn't mean TUO not suspicious.
19. Kas: Invokes the names of the lost [and apparently, I'm "vocal". That's a new label]. Secondary suspicion of Reading. Thinks Striker X more informative [very true]. Sheeping unlikely since Order [we need to consolidate this nickname. Is it Order or TUO?] hadn't voted.
20. Gears: Votes Striker with a lengthy post as to why. Points: Weaving a malicious narrative, Order vote. 
21. Bubbles: Votes Striker because paranoia is an insidious poison.
22. Ventyl: Clock confusion.
23. Striker: Retracts a nonexistent Gears vote, will always defend a teammate, Gears's points moot.
24. Kas: Tells Ventyl to chat with Sart in PM and get back to us, votes Reading.
25. Random: Incomprehension.
26. Araris: Summary
27. Random: Thanks
28. Kas: TALK. Votes Random.
29. Archer: Ventyl speculation.
30. Random: OK.
31. Striker: Asks Kas to join them on Araris or Reading.
32. Gears: Does not have the Clock. Investigates Striker points, comes up wanting.
33. Random: Why sus?
34. Araris: Only getting involved when suspicion falls.
35. Archer: As above.
36. Random: Ah
37. Kas: Can never read Ventyl. Outlines reasons against Random and Reading.
38. Striker: Scapegoat, conversation drain, etc. Doesn't have good suspicions.
39. Ash: Metaphors... Busy
40. Devotary: Reading thoughts, Ventyl no Clock, Special Revocations are Ash and Ventyl, maybe stolen?
41. Ventyl: Submitted pass, conf PM said thief...
42. Araris: GM has a bit of fun with replies.
43. Archer: OoA, ponderings
44. Araris: Clarifications
45. Ventyl: Capitalization...
46. Ash: Waiting for clarification
47. Books: Vaguely suspicious of Araris
48. Kas: STINK may have stolen, more Lanterns = good
49. Striker: Sart can be "a bit silly"
50. Archer: SACRILEGE. Books has good point.
51. Araris: If bus, Striker = elim, happy with X.
52. Kas: Bus!
53. Ash: Other actions, Books?
54. Kas: Banter
55. Devotary: Had Crab, used.
56. Sart: May or may not have made mistake...
57. Ash: Ventyl?
58. Books: Actions
59. Elandera: Do not share wording of GM PM as confirmation.
60. Archer: Retracts Ventyl, recaps, votes Books for "forgetting actions", probably was submitting elim kills
61. Books: Could have said tried and failed for actions, obviously better lie.
62. Kas: Probably not since TUO could have used as cover. Votes Araris.
63. Striker: Votes Araris for going back and forth on Gears and Striker.
64. Ventyl: Reasoning?
65. Reading: Votes Ventyl for Clock things.
66. Kas: Banter.
67. Ventyl: Issue has been resolved, votes Reading. [Also, Crab is a Night action]
68. Kas: Reasoning is unnecessary.
69. Ventyl: Did you?
70. Ash: Why Gears?
71. Ventyl: Trust [thanks]
72. Kas: Links
73. Ventyl: Reasoning?
74. Kas: None!
75. Lotus: Bread
76. Reading: Retracts Ventyl
77. Gears: Araris iso, concludes that logic is hard.
78. Random: Twilight Zone
79. Kas: Knows of second Lantern.
80. Araris: Doesn't think actions have been suspicious
81. Lotus: Kettles.
82. Reading: Banter.
83. Lotus: Comprehension.
84. Kas: If villagers talking into corners, will engage in unspeakable acts against chulls.
85. Gears: Actions
86. Ash: Finds "why would elim!self do X" inherently suspicious.
87. Books: Votes Araris.
88. Kas: Game divided into two blocs, should look for suspicions based on Striker flip [I think there are elims on both sides of the issue, if only because that's my personal elim philosophy], votes Striker. [Everyone should read Kas's posts and acknowledge their greatness.
89. Mist: Exists, reads, forsakes the Gods of Luck and Chance.
90. Ash: Mist, actions?
91. Mist: Items.

Conclusions: Nothing except the glory of Kasimir. Also, Striker has to die because of information. This vaguely reminds me of the DaneX in QF50. We left them alive and they ate up so much discussion that the village tore itself apart on it. All of our suspicions hinge on Striker. They must die.

I must depart for the time being as schoolwork exists. Do not expect me back for another few hours.

[+Lotus]

Personally I am under the firm belief that everyone else here is actually evil and that I am the only villager left.

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Gears said:

Conclusions: Nothing except the glory of Kasimir. Also, Striker has to die because of information. This vaguely reminds me of the DaneX in QF50. We left them alive and they ate up so much discussion that the village tore itself apart on it. All of our suspicions hinge on Striker. They must die.

Remember what happened with Dannex's exe in that game though? They were village. Just because a player has caused a lot of discussion and is pivotal in people suspicions doesn't mean they're village. If me being a villager makes you suspect others, and you're sure I'll be a villager so you can go after others...why don't we go after other people instead and save us exing a villager?

[Araris Valerian]

Yeah, if we were convinced that Striker was village, there would be no reason to grinch him. But I’m not, and I don’t think others are. If I thought Striker was village, it’s likely that neither of us would be up for grinching.

[+Lotus]

I think I'm going to vote Striker , as a lot of Araris's moves have felt very village-y this game

Also, I will be gone for the two hours leading up to rollover today

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Ventyl said:

Devotary, scan Gears and you’ll see that he has the Clock now.

I only had the one crab, and Gears has specifically denied having the clock. Since it looks like you're claiming that the clock was not in fact stolen from you and that you did give the clock to Gears, there's a discrepancy here. Perhaps @Gears could clarify this.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Oi, Second Lantern Holder, it's great that you're in contact with Kas, but could you maybe get in contact with Archer? You know, the player who's 99% confirmed Village and has an ability that will prove their non-conversion?

Being able to find out whether Archer's been converted wouldn't stop newly elim Archer from killing a lantern holder who claimed to him.

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: I agree with this, but I also see the game as being divided into two blocs of connections right now. You, Ventyl, Gears and Burnt are connected by suspicions of/targeting Striker, which means that if TUO was clumsily trying to implement a team plan to frame Striker (by sheeping), you come out more suspicious for jumping on the provided opportunity, as compared to first mover Gears.

You would have come across better for busing TUO immediately, yes, and this is where I agree with you and think it makes sense. But busing TUO wouldn't necessarily have led to the desired outcome, either - painting Striker with suspicion needed more work than just sheeping, IMO, and your arguments helped to go there beyond just TUO sheeping Striker. At the same time, I suppose the more I think about it, the more I feel like this would make Ventyl come out even more suspicious of the three of you, for jumping on Striker and then immediately backpedalling when challenged and jumping on TUO.

The issue with doing the Araris train is I feel like it's not as informative, to be frank. Say Araris is Evil. Is this enough for us to conclude about Striker's allegiances, or whether Striker was being set-up?

It doesn't really make sense for Order to have been framing Striker given that doing so would only work if Order died and that's not a worthwhile trade. I see this more as Order taking an opportunity to exe Gears, which is the main reason I see Gears as village. It seems too early and obvious for a defensive vote but I don't know what changed such that Order was willing to cast a vote for the first time. D3 Order said they were most suspicious of Striker, though it was a minimal suspicion. Order was quick to jump on Gears D4, but didn't take the opportunity to do so D3 when he was one of the main alternatives to Connie.

If Araris was evil the remaining elims would likely be among those Araris has been vocally suspicious of, but he hasn't really followed his recent elim patterns this game, so that can't be assured. Araris being evil would not be conclusive of Striker's alignment but I don't think elim Araris would have actually wanted to bus an e/e Order/Striker despite suggesting the latter two could be teammates upon initially voting Striker over Order D4.

[Ashbringer]

Eh. Striker. As oddly nervous as Araris makes me I'd rather Striker flip here, and to be honest I've lost track of the votes...

Books, you making a post or just on Sentry mode?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I believe the vote tally looks like this after my vote for Striker.

Striker (6): Araris, Gears, Burnt, Kas, Ash, Devotary
Araris (2): Striker, Books
Reading (1): Ventyl
Books (1): Archer

[StrikerEZ]

I'm about to go back to practicing, but I'll go ahead and ask if any of @Ventyl @Flyingbooks @Burnt Spaghetti @Kasimir or @Ashbringer would want to switch to Araris. I'm fine with dying at this point, so not a big deal if you don't. When I flip village, I suggest taking a look at Araris, Kas, Gears, and Ventyl. I think those are your best bets at finding elims.