Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Flyingbooks]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

maybe Flyingbooks (they seem to be hanging on the edge of the game for the most part).

I've been really busy with school lately, so I haven't had much time to focus on the game.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

I not think Gears is an elim, because unless I’ve missed something, they haven’t really done anything to be considered suspicious. All they’ve done is claim elim, which at this point is normal for them.

I’m still wary of Illwei, and would not be against killing them today. I really don’t see any better targets. Whether that’s because I haven’t been paying too much attention to this game lately or not, I don’t know.

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Ventyl said:

I not think Gears is an elim, because unless I’ve missed something, they haven’t really done anything to be considered suspicious. All they’ve done is claim elim, which at this point is normal for them.

I guess part of what I'm saying is that Gears hasn't done much of anything (suspicious or not). I find that suspicious in itself. What about Gears fitting the profile of no N1 kill?

[|TJ|]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

I guess part of what I'm saying is that Gears hasn't done much of anything (suspicious or not). I find that suspicious in itself. What about Gears fitting the profile of no N1 kill?

Why do you believe that there was no N1 kill? Why is that possibility more likely than elims hitting me or Quinn?

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Why do you believe that there was no N1 kill? Why is that possibility more likely than elims hitting me or Quinn?

The lack of a N1 kill is a possibility, one that has strategic viability with this set of rules. So I think it is worth considering when making reads.

[|TJ|]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The lack of a N1 kill is a possibility, one that has strategic viability with this set of rules. So I think it is worth considering when making reads.

The strategy being more or less what Gears mentioned here?

Quote

When you think about it, the lack of a kill makes perfect sense. Killing a Rithmatist does nothing, but X-ing a Rithmatist ups the Strength. As such, the elims would rather watch us kill ourselves in fits of madness and bloodlust. A bit boring, to be sure, but sensible. Less information for the village, and more voices to disrupt the field. A roleblock or protect could be valid, but don't put perfect stock into it. Unlike in other games, there is an actual incentive not to kill people. [Or maybe I'm an elim trying to obfuscate and confuse the roleblocker into not sharing out of fear of getting a villager X-ed [insert reference to MR46 here, Quinn]]

So you believe here, Gears is an elim outing his own plan to appear village?

[StrikerEZ]

@TJ Shade It is something I could completely buy Gears doing. Doesn't mean I think it's a good idea for him to do it, if he's an elim, but it's the type of thing I could see him doing.

[Araris Valerian]

Yeah, that's where I stand right now.

[---]

3 hours ago, Gears said:

The hot potato plan is non-viable for many reasons that have been pointed out by a number of people, but mainly because forcibly taking the Shadowblaze is nonviable, verifying the Shadowblaze is nonviable, and benevolence is nonviable. Do not attempt it if/when the Shadowblaze comes into play.

:/

Passing the shadowblaze is still and option. one that I will probably be doing if I get the Shadowblaze.

2 hours ago, Ventyl said:

Bold Underline mine.

I actually put it into my RP that I used chalk last night. So, I wasn’t withholding information, I just didn’t say it outright.

Man, why you focused on me here? I'm not the first one to say you look suspicious because of that. Ignoring the fact that we didn't see it before, why did you respond to me here in particular?

24 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I’m still wary of Illwei, and would not be against killing them today.

Can i get

some

delicious reasoning

[STINK]

which person up for the vote has more valuable items

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

 

[1] Man, why you focused on me here? I'm not the first one to say you look suspicious because of that. Ignoring the fact that we didn't see it before, why did you respond to me here in particular?

[2] Can i get

some

delicious reasoning

[1] I quoted you only because you were the last person to mention it when I made the post.

[2] I have said my reasoning before. And just like I don’t believe some of reasonings for the contradictions you made, you can not like my reason too.

[|TJ|]

22 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@TJ Shade It is something I could completely buy Gears doing. Doesn't mean I think it's a good idea for him to do it, if he's an elim, but it's the type of thing I could see him doing.

Hmmm, yeah I see him doing that, but I'm still struggling to actually find the advantages of this plan. There are so many villagers. Not killing one because they're saving up a villager to ML, I just don't understand. But yeah, just because I don't get it, we cannot discount that he found it a good idea and went ahead with it. Thing is, inactivity is not something I associate as elim!Gears behavior. And if the said events occurred, I feel Connie could fit the eliminator team profile as well. 

[---]

2 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

[2] I have said my reasoning before. And just like I don’t believe some of reasonings for the contradictions you made, you can not like my reason too.

sjkfd;hajfd

your reasoning was legit

"yea, what Archer said"

and

"i don't like they went after connie like that when she's so obviously the thief"

like

????

EDIT:

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

killing one because they're saving up a villager to ML

I could see this, because there's no one that people really consensus trust on D1

Quinn was pretty much consensus trust D2.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei

[Gears]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess part of what I'm saying is that Gears hasn't done much of anything (suspicious or not). I find that suspicious in itself. What about Gears fitting the profile of no N1 kill?

Concerning my lack of significant contributions: Very true. I've been incredibly disengaged and I have no idea why. This is entirely my fault and I will attempt to work on this. Concerning the profile of no N1 kill: This is false. Elim!Gears would have killed Quinn N1. The no kill strategy is only theoretically advantageous. It only helps if one assumes that everyone has a chance at being X-ed. The benefit: Hypothetical +1 Strength when your potential target gets X-ed. The cost: Losing out on a chance to eliminate a village stronghold. Quinn had a Lantern and a Specialization. They would not be X-ed in the near future because Lantern verification, Specialization, utility superior, etc. Now, hypothesise that perhaps Quinn would have been X-ed. There was a tinfoil theory along those lines after all. Then again, that line depended on Matrim and Illwei also being elim, and they were under more suspicion than Quinn, so Quinn would have been mostly ignored. Now consider the risk of the unknown specialisation. Warding: Give the Camp extra Defense [so killing them would be practically equivalent to letting them be X-ed in the short term], Forbiddance: A protect with superpowers [which is also powerful and incentivises murder], Vigor: Secret roleblocks [the elim wouldn't know if the person had protection or the roleblock, hurts elim!perfect information], Making: Scan actions [basically catch the elims in the act], Silencing: Prevents elim!PM shenanigans [.....significantly less dangerous than the others, but still a risk for elim!PM spiders], Revocation: Thief [Also less of a risk but still dangerous in hypothetical scenarios]. Most of the Specializations are dangerous for the elims. Leaving Quinn alive long enough for them to get X-ed had major detriments. The strategy of no kill is equivalent in benefit to killing people who won't be X-ed and can't do anything to harm the elims. It is viable under this ruleset but inferior to striking down dangerous village individuals. This is why I somewhat think there was a Quinn kill N1, not no kill. I will not discount the possibility of someone not extending the line of reasoning, but I would not have done this. [Have I inadvertently made a case for elim!Gears who NK'ed Quinn N1 and N2? Yes. Do I regret it? That one's a toss-up. I think this point is moot. I also think I rambled a lot because I was writing this during class like an irresponsible buffoon, so if it doesn't make sense, yell at me with words of logic and reasoning.]

[STINK]

22 minutes ago, Gears said:

Have I inadvertently made a case for elim!Gears who NK'ed Quinn N1 and N2? Yes.

Sold, Gears

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

"i don't like they went after connie like that when she's so obviously the thief"

i mean connie is just evil then right

[Condensation]

Right... I'm definitely evil. Lynching me would be a good idea because then I could say "I told you so" for the third time.

[STINK]

well u aint obviously the thief

[Condensation]

Nope, not me.

[---]

10 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Right... I'm definitely evil. Lynching me would be a good idea because then I could say "I told you so" for the third time.

Connie

Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei
so, apparently '[Connie=red] Vote [/connie]' is *not* the correct vote formatting... it's not even...the right *mistake* smh.

[Condensation]

I think you messed something up there, Illwei.

Seriously, though.

[Condensation]

Just now, Tani said:

How do I join this? I want to play tooooooo!

PM me.

Edit: We'd also appreciate it if you'd hide your post.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Condensation

[---]

I'm gonna play what I call ... well, okay I don't have a name for it. "let's see if E!Connie woulda been lying in any of these posts?" or something?

I will start off with: Connie being evasive isn't really thaaaat suspicious to me? if only because if I decided to never lie then I wouldn't ever tell straight truths. but let's see shall we?

Maybe I should call this the Confbias show :P.

Spoiler

Er, not all the posts in here, a lot of them are like, not saying anything specific so idk.

Spoiler

Quote

On 1/29/2021 at 11:30 AM, Illwei said:

Connie

Telling me that you're going to spill all the secrets in my PM with you isn't the best way to make PM friends :P.

That's not what I meant!

I'm willing to share basics. For example, so and so and I are talking about Greek mythology. That's all. And it'd really only be if you're getting suspicion.

 

er, yeah I don't think this is anything idk yeah.

Spoiler

Quote

I didn't really have anything to say. I mean, people don't seem to be fans of fluff... and my suspicions aren't nearly fully developed yet. I've got most all of the rule clarifications I need, and I can chat with people in PMs. So this has become irrelevant, really.

 

 Okay this isn't one, but connie here says that talking in thread is irrelevant? hard disagree, and half-formed suspicions can still be stated to the thread, imo, to see how other people are thinking or something idk.

Spoiler

Ha! obviously wants people to ignore her bc she's Evil!

Spoiler

Soooo i guess this would be depending on if she counts the Elim doc as a PM? or she also might not be very active there either.

Spoiler

This depends on if Elims can find people suspicious :P. I mean, yeah they can :P.

Spoiler

Quote

On 2/2/2021 at 4:28 PM, Illwei said:

???

connie, where did this come from?

Well, it was more of a joke. I was honestly planning to remove it in a little bit, but I'll remove it now. Mat.

I didn't have any reasoning other than "Hey, there's a train on Mat!" and "Mat keeps saying I'm sus!"

I believe it was a joke, I don't know why she's getting pressure on that? I think it was a joke, but just how much she didn't actually seem to care where her vote went is what bothered me :P.

Spoiler

Quote

On 2/2/2021 at 5:18 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Ninja'd by connies vote

1. thanks
2. illwei/connie NOT e/e

You're welcome. The other one was a joke vote, I still think we should keep you around.

Plus your PM's been more active than Illwei's.

On 2/2/2021 at 5:22 PM, Illwei said:

btw kinda bothering me how disconnected connie's been.

Yeah, sorry 'bout that. I've been worrying over auditioning for our school's musical, I decided not to. So I can probably be more active? If I haven't been active, yell at me. Or PM me, I'm really active on PMs. They're where I can go point by point.

"I still think we should keep you around" just sounds incredibly ominous to me :P. Which would be strange for an Elim, because Mat was suspecting her, but that was really only at the end there. She's definitely talked in past games about wanting to Pocket mat as an Elim, iirc :P.

Spoiler

Eek. It's really just about the choice of words here for me. "I do care about the village winning" isn't really what I was saying when I told her she felt disconnected. It just feels like such a strange choice of words to me?

Spoiler

On 2/3/2021 at 7:51 PM, Condensation said:

Quinn!!!

I'm glad we didn't exe Illwei, the thread would've died.

Okay, we need to get the Ornate Clock tonight. The Lantern would be good too.

I'm thinking I'll take a piece of Chalk or a Bribe.

I mean, Mat talks too?

Technically wouldn't be a lie for either alignment.

This is kinda wierd though. I know, I'm not really here to ISO connie for like what she's saying really, but I still think it's weird that she'd emphasize getting the Clock and then go off and try to grab chalk or a bribe.

Spoiler

5 hours ago, Condensation said:

14 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, the crabs are a thing too...and they tell you every single item someone has. It's not like we'd be completely at a loss for information.

*raises hand*

Yes, I have one of those! People thought I wasn't being smart or was the thief or something, but I was just being smart!

I mean, that was definitely my intention when I grabbed the Crab.

This doesn't say anything

Spoiler

On 2/3/2021 at 9:12 PM, Condensation said:

On 2/3/2021 at 9:11 PM, Araris Valerian said:

On 2/3/2021 at 8:17 PM, Condensation said:

That's true. But what about the Lantern? That's important too.

Not really. We have a couple claimed already. I would say the only less important thing in the supply right now is the Bribe.

All right. That does make sense.

Yeah idk this isn't really anything either.

Spoiler

35 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Right... I'm definitely evil. Lynching me would be a good idea because then I could say "I told you so" for the third time.

Sigh. this.

"I'm definitely Evil", "I could say 'I told you so'".

://. There's no emojis here. no " " like in the sarcastic messages. :/ and then she didn't come out and say it was a joke.

Spoiler

30 minutes ago, Condensation said:

32 minutes ago, STINK said:

well u aint obviously the thief

Nope, not me.

Straight up saying she's not the thief, which aparently-  well, nevermind about that :P.

Spoiler

20 minutes ago, Condensation said:

I think you messed something up there, Illwei.

Seriously, though.

I did mess up my formatting :P. you're right :P.

It's really just the last few thing that were like

mmm

and then one other thing when she was being evasive when Mat called her out on something but idk If I picked that up here

so yeah it's just the last few things

[StrikerEZ]

I’m adding Connie to the list of people I’d be willing to shrek. I don’t really have time to think too much about where my vote goes this turn, so you guys have an hour or so to persuade me to vote for either Connie or Gears or Devotary.

[Archer]

Hey Quinn, nice name update!

I feel bad hitting Flyingbooks when they're blue busy, so I'm willing to switch to Connie, even though I think both are elims. Out of Illwei and Connie, Mat's money was on the latter. 

Now here comes the moral dilemma. The rules say no using outside information about a person to judge their gameplay. But Connie has repeatedly stated in games that they don't lie in SE. So I feel okay using that meta to speculate that when they said "I'm definitely evil" they were telling the truth, full stop. Come, join me Striker! Take the low hanging fruit! Connie Flyingbooks 

[Condensation]

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Ha! obviously wants people to ignore her bc she's Evil!

Or, y'know, because every time I get noticed (even in past games) I get sussed. Why not... just not post at all? Silber's got it right, guys.

26 minutes ago, Illwei said:

she didn't actually seem to care where her vote went is what bothered me :P.

I care, but I knew that I'd be on for most of the rest of the cycle. RPs and all. So I would definitely have time to take it off. Like how Quinn votes as a sort of placeholder.

30 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Sigh. this.

"I'm definitely Evil", "I could say 'I told you so'".

://. There's no emojis here. no " " like in the sarcastic messages. :/ and then she didn't come out and say it was a joke.

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

Now here comes the moral dilemma. The rules say no using outside information about a person to judge their gameplay. But Connie has repeatedly stated in games that they don't lie in SE. So I feel okay using that meta to speculate that when they said "I'm definitely evil" they were telling the truth, full stop.

The other ones were jokes. That was sarcasm. And no, I don't count sarcasm as lying.

I keep forgetting that y'all can't see my face. 'Cause I get this weird expression when I'm being sarcastic. It's like... perfectly serious. And I'm not that way regularly. So yes, that was sarcasm, not me saying that I'm an elim.