--- Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) Anyways, no clue what the VC is at, but uh, Matrim really thought we could be friends mat but there ya go voting on me smh so here we are :P. 1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said: *crumples up a ball of tinfoil* *throws it at Illwei's head* *Opens mouth* *cronch* Edited February 3, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I disappear for hours, and this happens? Alas, it seems that school is sapping away at my SE efforts, despite my best intentions. [I suppose that's what comes of being a odd double-digit number of interlocking gears]. So Archer has claimed with a plan that is based on flawed assumptions, but I think we can trust this claim, especially given the lack of a counter-claim. The only downside for a non-Rithmatist claiming is that the village will not trust them after a few cycles, given the incentive of the elims to convert them. Then again, it may actually be strictly disadvantageous for the elims to convert the non-Rithmatist since it gets rid of the Shadowblaze [which is better in elim hands] and adds an extra way for the Strength to decrease for some added action economy, especially when the non-Rithmatist is public knowledge. However, waiting to kill them until the elims have converted them seems like a viable strategy, even if it does burn the Shadowblaze. HUMANS: I have no idea why any of these people are getting X-ed. That's mostly my own fault, but I quickly request a summary of the general consensus reasoning and each individual voter's reasoning. Ta in advance. I instinctively distrust Casper [also known as CSP, also known as the Coming of the Second Plague, also known as Weighted Illness, also known as Weill, also known as Illwei], but that's a standard sort of distrust that would be worrying only in the event of its absence. I would genuinely be willing to abstain from the X yet again, since my brain refuses to actually function in any manner that contributes to generating suspicions. [Also, my previous three attempts at resuming post-by-post analysis were eaten by the hungry Shard we call home, which certainly hasn't helped. Perhaps I should spreadsheet it instead of writing it in the Shard editor.] Then again, if anyone is sufficiently convincing, maybe I'll be swayed. Any one person offering a point of view is instinctively distrusted, so beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gears said: I disappear for hours, and this happens? Alas, it seems that school is sapping away at my SE efforts, despite my best intentions. [I suppose that's what comes of being a odd double-digit number of interlocking gears]. So Archer has claimed with a plan that is based on flawed assumptions, but I think we can trust this claim, especially given the lack of a counter-claim. The only downside for a non-Rithmatist claiming is that the village will not trust them after a few cycles, given the incentive of the elims to convert them. Then again, it may actually be strictly disadvantageous for the elims to convert the non-Rithmatist since it gets rid of the Shadowblaze [which is better in elim hands] and adds an extra way for the Strength to decrease for some added action economy, especially when the non-Rithmatist is public knowledge. However, waiting to kill them until the elims have converted them seems like a viable strategy, even if it does burn the Shadowblaze. HUMANS: I have no idea why any of these people are getting X-ed. That's mostly my own fault, but I quickly request a summary of the general consensus reasoning and each individual voter's reasoning. Ta in advance. I instinctively distrust Casper [also known as CSP, also known as the Coming of the Second Plague, also known as Weighted Illness, also known as Weill, also known as Illwei], but that's a standard sort of distrust that would be worrying only in the event of its absence. I would genuinely be willing to abstain from the X yet again, since my brain refuses to actually function in any manner that contributes to generating suspicions. [Also, my previous three attempts at resuming post-by-post analysis were eaten by the hungry Shard we call home, which certainly hasn't helped. Perhaps I should spreadsheet it instead of writing it in the Shard editor.] Then again, if anyone is sufficiently convincing, maybe I'll be swayed. Any one person offering a point of view is instinctively distrusted, so beware. Not lynching anyone would be a good idea, if it was actually possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Illwei said: Info kill bad [OOC: In fact, I'll say more - right now, we're running off the hivemind's claim that the Dannex countertrain was entirely Village-generated, by a PM of Villagers who apparently all decided they'd rather Dannex dead than Mat. Is this true? Frith knows. Knowing whether Mat is Evil could tell us a bit more about what the hell went down D1. It could give us a bit more certainty - compared to everyone's reads, since reads can be wrong - about what the Evil strategy D1 was, about whether it really was an all-Village train or one that involved Evil action (in which case we should look at the mass PM group that evidently decided to go after Dannex), and so on. I don't really have an especial investment on either train, but as your name keeps coming up, I'm not exactly going to be wroth if you get CMed either, as long as Archer doesn't. It'd at least give me more to go on since I do feel that Ash and Striker are overextending, but once again, could be wrong. This is not analysis. I have not been analysing this game. I'm just pointing out that it's really not a priori bad to go for a tie or an informational CM. The real trick is determining when the strategy is appropriate - e.g. anyone trying to do an info-CM at lylo (edited to add: or when there are clearly better Evil-read alternatives - got any to suggest, then?) should be rightfully smacked.] Edited February 3, 2021 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Illwei (5): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim Matrim (4): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Illwei Archer (3): Random Bystander, TJ, STINK, Flyingbooks (1): Mist This should be the current vote count. Archer's not in danger. I don't think it's likely for Illwei and Matrim to both be evil. If Matrim is evil there's a decent chance he actually did have and use a bucket of acid, as compared to near certainty for village Matrim. Elim Illwei would have likely assumed the Dannex train wouldn't take off with village Matrim and Gears. With the latter two E/V voting for the other would be easier, or trying to start a train on Striker who Illwei expressed actual suspicion of. All three of them being evil seems far-fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ahhhhhhh fifteen minutes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: In fact, I'll say more - right now, we're running off the hivemind's claim that the Dannex countertrain was entirely Village-generated, by a PM of Villagers who apparently all decided they'd rather Dannex dead than Mat. Is this true? Frith knows. Knowing whether Mat is Evil could tell us a bit more about what the hell went down D1. It could give us a bit more certainty - compared to everyone's reads, since reads can be wrong - about what the Evil strategy D1 was, about whether it really was an all-Village train or one that involved Evil action (in which case we should look at the mass PM group that evidently decided to go after Dannex), and so on. Er. I mean. That's technically speaking not what happened? Me, Ash, Illwei, Mat, we're all in a group PM together but I for one made my decision to vote Dannex without consulting that PM--except to be aware that Illwei and Ash weren't happy with the Mat exe, which I would have known anyway since they'd already voted Dannex by the time I did : P and then Burnt and Ventyl aren't in that group anyway. Edited February 3, 2021 by Quinn0928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Kasimir said: by a PM of Villagers who apparently all decided they'd rather Dannex dead than Mat. Is this true? Frith knows. Wait what? Was not a PM- *looks in PM* okay well it's kinda wierd how it was legit the same people I put in the PM (meaning Ash, Matrim, and Quinn I believe) but like, there was no PM coordination. I voted Danex, then they were like- well I have no clue what they were like. But there was no coordination through PMs afaik. mmmmm Ventyl/Matrim e/e? hmmmmm I want colors. we have one. i want more reeee Edited February 3, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Illwei said: Wait what? Was not a PM- *looks in PM* okay well it's kinda wierd how it was legit the same people I put in the PM (meaning Ash, Matrim, and Quinn I believe) but like, there was no PM coordination. I voted Danex, then they were like- well I have no clue what they were like. But there was no coordination through PMs afaik. mmmmm Ventyl/Matrim e/e? hmmmmm I want colors. we have one. i want more Bold mine. What makes you think this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Ventyl said: Bold mine. What makes you think this? You voting on Danex last round, you voting on me this. My vil flip would clear mat as far as these theories are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 hours ago, Quinn0928 said: I would agree with you on Ash having a stronger connection to Matrim than Illwei does--although, Ash did say in a group PM with me, Illwei, Matrim, and some others (before Dannex became an option, I mean) that he would prefer to exe Matrim over Gears, but thought both of them were village. If elim!Ash wanted to protect elim!Matrim, he could have just not said that and voted on Gears instead, since Gears was an option earlier than Dannex was. So unless Gears was elim with both of them, which I find rather unlikely, I'm inclined to think that Ash isn't linked that strongly to Matrim either. @Illwei, @Quinn0928 - [OOC: Misreading of this then - my eyebrows and 'what the chull did I just read' levels both shot up after seeing this.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyingbooks Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think I'll vote Matrim as a sacrifice to the gods of luck and chance. I honestly don't really know exactly what's going on, so I might as well create some chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Kasimir said: [OOC: Misreading of this then - my eyebrows and 'what the chull did I just read' levels both shot up after seeing this.] : P yeah I figured that was the post you were referring to. I mean, Mat did kinda ask us not to kill him in that PM which made me feel bad about the whole thing so maybe being in the PM influenced my decision? But it wasn't like it was coordinated :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alvron Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Illwei (5): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim Matrim (4): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Illwei Archer (3): Random Bystander, TJ, STINK, Flyingbooks (1): Mist This should be the current vote count. Nope. Several vote counts have missed that Random moved their vote from Archer to Illwei. 1 hour ago, Random Bystander said: What the heck did I miss?!?! Also, okay..... Archer. And then my second gut vote was Illwei. (I'm sorry) See. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Archer I just really don’t think Mat or Illwei is an Elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Illwei said: You voting on Danex last round, you voting on me this. My vil flip would clear mat as far as these theories are concerned. And that makes me an elim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Lotus said: Archer I just really don’t think Mat or Illwei is an Elim. [OOC: Sigh. I'm gonna regret this. Sorry Alv... Sorry.... Are you counterclaiming then?] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Lotus said: Archer It's like you're trying to get voted out, lotus :P. 1 minute ago, Ventyl said: And that makes me an elim? For someone who was voting on Mat last cycle until Danex gained traction, yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: It's like you're trying to get voted out, lotus :P. What you think I’m not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: It's like you're trying to get voted out, lotus :P. For someone who was voting on Mat last cycle until Danex gained traction, yeah So wait, if I was an elim, why would I have voted Mat in the first place last cycle when it was a very real possibility he would be lynched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alvron Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: Sigh. I'm gonna regret this. Sorry Alv... Sorry.... Are you counterclaiming then?] First Araris starts slipping back into the Shadows and now Laidback!Kas is leaving? @Burnt Spaghetti, stay with me! Don't become the PM Spider again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Alvron said: Nope. Several vote counts have missed that Random moved their vote from Archer to Illwei. You're right, and I also can't count. This should be correct now. Illwei (7): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim, Bystander Matrim (5): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Illwei, Books Archer (3): TJ, STINK, Lotus Flyingbooks (1): Mist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Ventyl said: So wait, if I was an elim, why would I have voted Mat in the first place last cycle when it was a very real possibility he would be lynched? Because your switching made a 2 vote difference- he wouldn't be killed then. You woulda been bussing hi- this is absolutely useless to talk about until his flip, imo. I'll get back to you during the night :P. Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Illwei (7) Well that's pretty poggers. If those on Archer could hop onto mat, then that would be highly appreciated :P. Edited February 3, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Alvron said: First Araris starts slipping back into the Shadows and now Laidback!Kas is leaving? @Burnt Spaghetti, stay with me! Don't become the PM Spider again! [OOC: I'm actually apologising because this is exactly how I got you roleblocked (sent to dig latrines, IIRC) and killed during the Macen the Surgeon fiasco... I'm still sorry Laidback Kas isn't leaving as I'm still refusing to do actual serious analysis...but where's analytical Alv gone?] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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