1,873 posts in this topic

Thanks TJ Shade, and those who have been so kind as to welcome me.

You will have to forgive me if it takes me some time to catch up on all this. I shall have to skim it, rather than follow my normal approach, but even so there is clearly a lot to get through.

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To be quite frank, this does not entirely abate my suspicions on Danex. Quinn intentionally did not tie it with Danex, implying that such a tie would be disadvantageous for the elims, Danex has been consistently saved by vote manip, and Quinn was a Red, which is strictly worse than the Brown, so they would prefer Quinn dying to Danex dying. However, I will release Danex from my sights for now. [Just for now, though. I'm letting them go for now.] I think at least one of Lotus, Archer, or Danex is an elim, and the tide seems to be towards Lot. Question: If Lot is vil, which of the two will we go for? I want to go for Danex, but I fear I am biased.

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2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Looking at the EoD for C3, Lotus specifically chose Archer over Quinn. If both were evil, Lotus likely would have stuck with Quinn, but she didn't.

That’s actually quite a good point. I’m starting to think I should be putting more thought into the reads game, rather than just impersonal strategies. Thanks, Mat!

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Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Thanks TJ Shade, and those who have been so kind as to welcome me.

You will have to forgive me if it takes me some time to catch up on all this. I shall have to skim it, rather than follow my normal approach, but even so there is clearly a lot to get through.

Don't worry, a lot of it is fluff. It will read pretty fast.
@Dannex, @Burnt Spaghetti, who were your targets last night?

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8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I also wouldn't say locktown. One vote manip off of him, which if you choose to look at it this way: it could be the Elims hoping to make sure that they at least don't tie it between two Elims.

I still think that was vil!you trying to save vil!him :P.

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3 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Don't worry, a lot of it is fluff. It will read pretty fast.
@Dannex, @Burnt Spaghetti, who were your targets last night?

Does anyone want to scan me tonight, or do people believe me that I’m Blue? It might not be the best thing to demonstrate, since I think that makes me the biggest target left on the board, as someone who can find an elim, in optimal circumstances. Greys are critical, as well, though. I’ve got Gears as bodyguard, but that’s still Russian Roulette. 

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Just now, Breaker said:

Does anyone want to scan me tonight, or do people believe me that I’m Blue? It might not be the best thing to demonstrate, since I think that makes me the biggest target left on the board, as someone who can find an elim, in optimal circumstances. Greys are critical, as well, though. I’ve got Gears as bodyguard, but that’s still Russian Roulette. 

I'm pretty confident you're blue, but I'm not convinced Gears isn't an Elim and playing us. Archer I'm still highly suspicious of as well -- based on the flip I'm pretty sure I know his role, but I'm not confident in alignment. I'm also pretty sure that if the Elim have two or three Warders (like I suspect) that Town can have two brown, as those roles essentially act as off switches for the Town roles. I need to talk to Order about some things, I'll be back eventually.

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Just now, James Brafin said:

I'm pretty confident you're blue, but I'm not convinced Gears isn't an Elim and playing us.

Sorry, James; I can’t let you do that. 

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4 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Sorry, James; I can’t let you do that. 

Sorry, Breaker, I can't let you be pocketed like that.

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5 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Archer I'm still highly suspicious of as well -- based on the flip I'm pretty sure I know his role, but I'm not confident in alignment.

How can Quinn's flip make you sure of Archer's role?

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James Brafin 

Round 4 poke vote, because, why not? I’ll remove the sword from your throat, but only once you recognize the grave insult you have dealt us! We are a team! We! Are! Greaker!

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Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

You will have to forgive me if it takes me some time to catch up on all this. I shall have to skim it, rather than follow my normal approach, but even so there is clearly a lot to get through.

Yeah, I apologize for the amount of pages in C1/2. :P.

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

To be quite frank, this does not entirely abate my suspicions on Danex. Quinn intentionally did not tie it with Danex, implying that such a tie would be disadvantageous for the elims, Danex has been consistently saved by vote manip, and Quinn was a Red, which is strictly worse than the Brown, so they would prefer Quinn dying to Danex dying. However, I will release Danex from my sights for now. [Just for now, though. I'm letting them go for now.] I think at least one of Lotus, Archer, or Danex is an elim, and the tide seems to be towards Lot. Question: If Lot is vil, which of the two will we go for? I want to go for Danex, but I fear I am biased.

That is my other point that...well, you said it better :P.

Yeah. Both Striker and Quinn were up against Danex, and Danex didn't vote on Striker nor Quinn.

I think that Lot/Danex can't be E/E.

First day, Lotus was up as the CW for Danex, and Lotus has now claimed to be bonded to a Brown. I don't see a reason for Striker to vote on Danex over Lotus when they're both connected to Brown Ajah. If they were both Elim then the better target would be Lotus, because that wouldn't take out Elim info right away, with their two lives.

It has really taken me like 20 minutes to type this out I don't think my brain is functioning as hoped.

 

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Hey, was anyone bonded to Quinn? Or is that question too on-the-nose for you to claim? :) 

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Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey, was anyone bonded to Quinn? Or is that question too on-the-nose for you to claim? :) 

Ooo! Thanks! I forgot to ask!

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The connections between Lotus and the 2 elims seem too strong to be a coincidence.

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3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yeah, I apologize for the amount of pages in C1/2. :P.

...

First day, Lotus was up as the CW for Danex, and Lotus has now claimed to be bonded to a Brown.

1. Hey! I deserve at least partial credit, as well as Jimothy! Don’t erase me from this thread’s glorious history! 
2. CW?

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Right. Forgot to include this at least:

I want to clear things up, because this doesn't help anything: I'm not the Grey Ajah. I'm a useless white Ajah and TJ has been laughing at me ;-;.

Day 1 I targeted Mat. Not going to say who their Partner is but I''ve been trying to let them know.
Day 2 I targeted Ash, because...I forgot the OOO -_-.
Day 3 I...targeted...Gears...because I'm just a complete idiot.

3 minutes ago, Breaker said:

1. Hey! I deserve at least partial credit, as well as Jimothy! Don’t erase me from this thread’s glorious history! 
2. CW?

Right right right, hold on....lemme see...

Illwei....................... 154
Breaker................... 119
James.....................107
Quinn......................103

All the 100+ posters :P. Yeah, you're almost up there with me :P.

CW, ya know? the....TV...station?...channel?....company?
Counterwagon. I can just say counterwagon it's not a lot harder for me to type out hehe.

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Edit that's completely overwriting a confusing repeat post in which my internet freaked:

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Right. Forgot to include this at least:

I want to clear things up, because this doesn't help anything: I'm not the Grey Ajah. I'm a useless white Ajah and TJ has been laughing at me ;-;.

Man, it was such a great theory! I guess I could soft-clear you cause Striker flipped White.

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Day 1 I targeted Mat. Not going to say who their Partner is but I''ve been trying to let them know.

Ah, that explains a previous comment of yours. We'll get to that, maybe. If it's necessary.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Lotus.

I appreciate a slow cycle, where we know our target, because I’ve got stuff to do tonight and tomorrow morning. I’ll try to keep up, in case we need to switch to someone else, or in case someone wants my help, feedback, or scan for something. 

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VCs for fun. with colors

Spoiler

 

C1:

Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

C2:

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

C3

Quinn0928 (4) : Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (2) : Gears, Breaker, Archer
Archer (2): Lotus, James Brafin

So Danex was on both the Quinn and Lotus Counterwagons, and not on Ash. If Lotus flips Elim then I really do think this looks bad for Danex. If E!Lotus then Danex has been on an Elim each cycle, which could be him trying to not look guilty in voting out villagers.

I haven't gone back and looked at all the votes yet.

*looks at main thread* awwww it was locked ;-; no more multiquoting from there ;-; I really...don't....wanna ISO...Quinn... :/// *looks at post count again* especially without multiquoting ;-;.

 

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14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So Danex was on both the Quinn and Lotus Counterwagons, and not on Ash. If Lotus flips Elim then I really do think this looks bad for Danex. If E!Lotus then Danex has been on an Elim each cycle, which could be him trying to not look guilty in voting out villagers.

Dannex voted for Ash a couple minutes after the cycle ended. E/E Dannex Lotus is because Lotus voted for Archer when Quinn and Dannex were tied for the lead?

You can fake multiquote by putting in a quote box and then c/ping in parts of someone's post.

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21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If Lotus flips Elim then I really do think this looks bad for Danex.

Why? I say the opposite.

  • Striker was fine killing Dannex only when Lotus was up for exe. This shows a direct preference for Lotus over Dannex, which doesn't make much sense if they're both evil considering their roles.
  • In C1, Dannex voted for Lotus, though I think it was self-pres. More notably, both Quinn and Striker did not vote Lotus, and Striker voted Dannex.
  • In C2, both Quinn and Lotus voted Dannex, and Dannex voted for Quinn. I don't see how that level of bussing was necessary at all, so I'm inclined to think it wasn't.
  • In C3, Dannex voted for Quinn, though maybe it was self-pres again, I don't remember. 

Ninja'd by Devotary.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You can fake multiquote by putting in a quote box and then c/ping in parts of someone's post.

Yeaaaaah,

But I mean, it's easy to ctrl+f quinn and then "add quote" all of them and sort through after the fact :P.

--

I also

Just realized

that

I said

"lotus/danex E/E"

and

'lotus/danex never E/E"

in the same post.

....

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why? I say the opposite.

Shushshush yes yes that is. I think that's what I mean. I think I contradicted myself like, 10 times in that post. yes.

 

Edited by Illwei
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I am very lost please help me

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I am
Also lost.

Imma be back in like...a bit. I'll be back in a bit and then do things. Brain no work for me rn.

 

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