Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: soooooooooo Tinfoil is okay to use once you have nowhere else to go. We still have places to go, so tinfoiling Danex into an Elim does no good rn. if we get down to like 3 people, and we think they're all village for one reason or another, that's when it's okay to start tinfoiling, imo :P. Thank you, sensei edit: requesting vote count, oh, wonderful Master of Games Edited January 17, 2021 by Breaker Vote count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) Okay, so, I'm back after calling my parents to destress and just a few things: Quinn, because I'm pretty sure she(?) has been pushing a narrative for a while now, and has now had to re-evaluate because it just got hammahed. There's other people, but we'll get there I swear to all heck I know that interaction with the votes with Striker makes no sense; I promise it will soon. I also think Archer is more sus than you think, as he seems to be intentionally distancing himself from everyone, which is very Elim-motivated. I may need to just reevaluate them tho Dannex I swear to the Cosmere I've thought you were Town for a while, that's not why I'm pushing this line of inquiry. This is something I've said multiple times. Chill, aight? Speaking of, @Matrim's Dice, I'd still like you to explain why you think/thought Dannex is town, ideally without using Illwei's arguments. Imma gonna finish food and lurk, if I see anything I want to address I'll pipe up. Ping if you need something. Edited January 17, 2021 by James Brafin Politeness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: hammahed. Explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: Explain We've locked Dannex into Town now; Quinn can no longer push a narrative of Dannex being Elim. Also, while I've got you, can you target her tonight if we don't kill her? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Okay, so, I'm back after calling my parents to destress and just a few things: Quinn, because I'm pretty sure she(?) has been pushing a narrative for a while now, and has now had to re-evaluate because it just got hammahed. There's other people, but we'll get there I swear to all heck I know that interaction with the votes with Striker makes no sense; I promise it will soon. I also think Archer is more sus than you think, as he seems to be intentionally distancing himself from everyone, which is very Elim-motivated. I may need to just reevaluate them tho Dannex I swear to the Cosmere I've thought you were Town for a while, that's not why I'm pushing this line of inquiry. This is something I've said multiple times. Chill, aight? Speaking of, @Matrim's Dice, I'm still waiting on your reasoning for why Dannex is town (and parroting Illwei is not enough). Imma gonna finish food and lurk, if I see anything I want to address I'll pipe up. Ping if you need something. Aight but seriously, I forgot Archer was alive; I got them confused with Ashbringer. James, you can't swear to the cosmere; you haven't even started The Way of Kings. Also, on a strictly interpersonal note, and I don't mean to be harshly critical, but that line feels a bit rude to Matrim, like they're doing something wrong and owe you recompense. still fwend doe edit: Just now, James Brafin said: We've locked Dannex into Town now; Quinn can no longer push a narrative of Dannex being Elim. Also, while I've got you, can you target her tonight if we don't kill her? Thanks. No, explain that word you used. It hurt my brain. And will do, friend! Edited January 17, 2021 by Breaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Breaker said: Aight but seriously, I forgot Archer was alive; I got them confused with Ashbringer. James, you can't swear to the cosmere; you haven't even started The Way of Kings. Also, on a strictly interpersonal note, and I don't mean to be harshly critical, but that line feels a bit rude to Matrim, like they're doing something wrong and owe you recompense. still fwend doe While I do think they are doing something wrong, they owe me nothing so I have changed my post to be less aggressive. Thank you for pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: Quinn, because I'm pretty sure she(?) has been pushing a narrative for a while now, and has now had to re-evaluate because it just got hammahed. There's other people, but we'll get there Yes, I'm a she. As for the rest, I've been "pushing a narrative", or rather a theory, that made sense to me. Given the voting patterns and the pattern of vote-manips around Dannex, I was pretty sure he was elim. But yeah, that theory just got "hammahed" as you so eloquently put it. What would you have me do, continue to maintain that Dannex is elim and must have been starting a train on Striker to clear up the suspicion on himself? I mean, if that's what it was then it worked, but I don't find that likely tbh. Especially since Dannex and I were elims last game, and he argued quite strongly against all of the busses that I suggested and carried out. It seems like a very unlikely strategy for him to spearhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said: Yes, I'm a she. As for the rest, I've been "pushing a narrative", or rather a theory, that made sense to me. Given the voting patterns and the pattern of vote-manips around Dannex, I was pretty sure he was elim. But yeah, that theory just got "hammahed" as you so eloquently put it. What would you have me do, continue to maintain that Dannex is elim and must have been starting a train on Striker to clear up the suspicion on himself? I mean, if that's what it was then it worked, but I don't find that likely tbh. Especially since Dannex and I were elims last game, and he argued quite strongly against all of the busses that I suggested and carried out. It seems like a very unlikely strategy for him to spearhead. I was getting ready to bring it up right as you changed that vote. The main problem I have is that you've been pushing a narrative that I don't think actually lines up with the game -- you're telling a story instead of providing evidence. I don't know about here, but on my home planet that's considered really suspicious. (For clarification, that was a joke as mafiascum and this place are worlds apart. Ha ha me.) Edited January 17, 2021 by James Brafin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: my home planet Shhhhh don't let them know where you're from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, Illwei said: Maybe more likely than the rest of these guys and i need to make this title longer so it'll fit: Quinn, JAMES??????, order Seeeee I've been saying Quinn is sus :P. I'm still on Lotus, but would switch to Quinn and have said that before. 4 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Speaking of, @Matrim's Dice, I'm still waiting on your reasoning for why Dannex is town (and parroting Illwei is not enough). Has been very devoted to his reasonings instead of cooling it off slowly like an elim would Has been significantly more active than his elim game Has no teammatey-like connection with Striker, the opposite in fact (the thing about being fine with tying it with Striker) Something else Also, what's wrong with me agreeing with Illwei's assessment of things? I'm not super great at coherently making analysis posts. I play by gut (and hopefully logic) and when I see reasoning I agree with, I agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Breaker said: Illwei. You’ve put a lot of thought into this, and we need Shrek targets. I’m requesting the professional opinion of Illwei, Inc. I am definitely waiting for people to actually...respond. to. anything I've said. It feels like I'm trying to carry the conversation, and no one is trying. Start messing around and people chime in all over the place, but try to asking about what they actually think about the game, and they don't know what they think. Theoretically...according to that, Quinn does appear to be a good target. I really need other opinions though because I'm almost always wrong on Quinn, even though I am judging her for different reasons. This also only takes into account interactions with Striker and nothing else about their play. Connie, Kings_way, Lotus, Books, Devotary, Gears, Quinn, Order, James, Burnt, Archer. This is ...a lot of people still. @Kings_way is an inactive, I'd like to wait and see if they end up posting more. I trust Breaker for now, and that means that I'll leave Gears alone for now. @Condensation hasn't said much, so I'd like to give her time to try and contribute. @Order is a newer player, and apparently wasn't really able to post this last turn? I'd like to see if they have any thoughts on anything happening rn? I still mostly trust Books, TBH. I have no other reasons than their eta though, so if @Flyingbooks42 would come be a bit more active then that could help me get a better read on them? I still think that James is town. Maybe I'm somehow ...town? tunneling? idk. They had bad interactions with Striker in my opinion, but that's only one part of their play, and...those types of reads are more than not kiiiiinda not reliable :P. That leaves me with thinking we should kill in the pool of: Lotus, Devotary, Quinn, Burnt, Archer. Can someone. Please. Help. Me. :P. I don't wanna be doing PoE so early when It's probably wrong like this :P. but here I am EDIT: so now yall talk lmao. bad computer. Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: Seeeee I've been saying Quinn is sus :P. I'm still on Lotus, but would switch to Quinn and have said that before. Has been very devoted to his reasonings instead of cooling it off slowly like an elim would Has been significantly more active than his elim game Has no teammatey-like connection with Striker, the opposite in fact (the thing about being fine with tying it with Striker) Something else Also, what's wrong with me agreeing with Illwei's assessment of things? I'm not super great at coherently making analysis posts. I play by gut (and hopefully logic) and when I see reasoning I agree with, I agree with it. Okay, we're here. I was checking for white-knighting. You've been giving me those vibes for a while, and I wanted to double-check that you weren't just piggybacking off of Illwei. Problem is, these are all things I think Illwei said, but I don't remember. I need to go reread her posts I guess *cries* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: Problem is, these are all things I think Illwei said, but I don't remember. I need to go reread her posts I guess *cries* They are. 1 & 2 I think we both came up with independently, 3 is one Illwei pointed out alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Quinn, because I'm pretty sure she(?) has been pushing a narrative for a while now, and has now had to re-evaluate because it just got hammahed. There's other people, but we'll get there I swear to all heck I know that interaction with the votes with Striker makes no sense; I promise it will soon. I also think Archer is more sus than you think, as he seems to be intentionally distancing himself from everyone, which is very Elim-motivated. I may need to just reevaluate them th I feel both of these reads. 13 minutes ago, Breaker said: James, you can't swear to the cosmere; you haven't even started The Way of Kings. :0 2 minutes ago, James Brafin said: I need to go reread her posts I guess *cries* *checks post count* ;-; can i help u find any things? Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Gears says that they still believe the case against Dannex, despite the critical claim they'd be willing to tie with with Striker, is the strongest case, since everyone else mostly has gut, if anything. He basically said there wasn't any other case at all. I'd quote, but I can't. \ There's a critical vote for Liranil that Dannex made that Gears finds sus, and they believe that a Black Ajah Grey is a likely tool Dannex was relying on in order to escape the tie. I'm listening to Near's theme from Death Note right now, so I'm gonna liken that to when Light had himself imprisoned as a gambit. Earns a lot of credibility, but you had a hole card waiting to bail you out. Gears, I hope this is all acceptable phrasing for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: I was getting ready to bring it up right as you changed that vote. The main problem I have is that you've been pushing a narrative that I don't think actually lines up with the game -- you're telling a story instead of providing evidence. I don't know about here, but on my home planet that's considered really suspicious. Oh! I actually haven't changed my vote yet, thank you for reminding me. Dannex. I'd argue with the rest of that but since I haven't been "telling a story" and I'm not sure what you see in my posts that makes you think I have, I don't know how to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Well, it seems like, against all odds, I’m solidly village to a bunch of people. I mean, I think I still have like 3 votes on me, but whatever. So does that mean y’all think Burnt is Elim? Or do you think we have 2 village brown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Illwei said: I feel both of these reads. :0 *checks post count* ;-; can i help u find any things? Oh please that would be great. Can you find where you've said similar things to what Dice just mentioned? These two: Has been very devoted to his reasonings instead of cooling it off slowly like an elim would Has been significantly more active than his elim game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Dannex said: Well, it seems like, against all odds, I’m solidly village to a bunch of people. I mean, I think I still have like 3 votes on me, but whatever. So does that mean y’all think Burnt is Elim? Or do you think we have 2 village brown? We've all posted some thoughts (er, if by we I mean me and then some james ig? and some ...greaker? brears?...) what's your opinion rn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Village brown, and I'm pretty sure the Elim have 2 Wardens to compensate. In fact, I'd hedge my bets on Elims being White, Grey, Warder, Warder, Red/Yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Dannex said: Well, it seems like, against all odds, I’m solidly village to a bunch of people. I mean, I think I still have like 3 votes on me, but whatever. So does that mean y’all think Burnt is Elim? Or do you think we have 2 village brown? Appeal to Consequences is a logical fallacy, but I'm using it. If we have only 1 Brown, and you're Village, then Burnt is a liar, and probably Evil. Since I don't want to live in that world, either you must be Elim, or we have two Browns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Illwei said: Can someone. Please. Help. Me. :P. Mat's PoE! Cycle Three! Rhyming, Wheee! Ahem. Lotus, Quinn, Burnt Lotus: Has connections with Striker, ie Striker had been defending Dannex all game. Lotus becomes the counterwagon, and Striker is suddenly fine with killing Dannex. Additionally a gut read, possibly stemming from their hesitance. Quinn: Flopping on/off Dannex in a way that reads to me as an elim trying to do it villagery. I can't explain it any other way, but the flopping feels deliberate. I thought they seemed more mayory than her village games, though I don't think anyone else did. Add that too the the Striker connections, and... Burnt: Is there really two village Browns? I'm not convinced. What I do think is possible is that we found our e/e Bond pair, though with some people arguing that two v!Browns might be possible I'm not sure. Condensation: Still gut from C1, and I'm still suspicious of WGG, though admittedly not as much anymore. Her original Dannex vote pinged off to me and she has hence dissolved into the background. I took off Archer and Devotary because a gut read on the former and a lack of content on the latter. (And added Connie) I'll be gone for... 1.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Illwei said: ...greaker? brears?...) what's your opinion rn? Consider me your mortal foe. I'd vote to Shrek you on the spot if it wouldn't violate my oaths. But, for the record, Greaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 hours ago, Quinn0928 said: I... jeez I'm discovering that I don't like QFs very much. This is actually exhausting. The exe was solidly for Dannex when I left to eat lunch five minutes before the end of the cycle and then when I got back suddenly it was for Ash. Or, rather, it was tied between Dannex and Ash. This is... disturbing to me, given this is the second time this has happened. Following along with this game is exhausting, both because of the large amount of posts (which are partly my fault, I know) but mainly, for me, apparently nothing happens during the first 23 hours and 55 minutes of the cycle actually matters. I just... y'know, I actually try with my posts analyzing votes and vote-manips and what people are saying but it's getting harder and harder to convince myself it's worth it when no matter how much evidence or how strong a case I can find against someone, in the last five minutes of the cycle the vote unexpectedly shifts to someone else on whom we have nothing. I mean, I know QFs are supposed to be more fun and chaotic but I'm finding this pattern really frustrating. I'm... gonna put my thoughts on Dannex here, since I feel like if there isn't enough evidence to exe him now there never will be, and then I think I'm gonna go offline for a while. - he is one of two confirmed Brown Ajahs in this game, and we assume the elims have at least one. - both cycles, whenever it's looked like he might end up exed, a countertrain on someone with virtually no evidence against them has miraculously sprung up in literally minutes, which is just... astonishing even on its own. - after C1, two votes had been removed from Dannex, and after C2 one vote was. - there are also all kinds of things in terms of reads that people have pointed out at various times: possible scumslips, risky plans, agressiveness... idk whether those are AI, and I thought they were vil-indicative for him if anything at the beginning of this game, but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that. None of this in and of itself is enough to exe Dannex, but when you take it all together it shows a clear pattern. Just... please, think about it for a second instead of voting off of slight gut reads again. I'm... yeah, I'm gonna take a break from this for a little while. I'll probably be back before the end of the cycle, but... This is the most blatant post, and I'll explain some of the (numerous) issues with it: The countertrain that built up in the first round actually had some backing. Lotus's low posting and extremely suspicious behavior had some people concerned that they were low-activity Elim (like me). And the second wagon frames the whole affair in a particular way, when it's clear that it was Elim led by an Elim who was likely to die anyways. There's just as likely a chance that they are drawing these wagons to try and get us to Shrek Dannex, while they deal with bigger threats like Lil and Burnt. It ignores the fact that Greys have little control over their votes, as has been discussed. All of the things that we have pointed out we have all agreed are uncredible. They aren't good reasons to suspect him of anything, simply because they stem from meta behavior and confusion. You talk about patterns here as well, which is a big red flag. Shrekking on a "pattern" rather than solid evidence is such a bad thing to do. It's framing all this stuff in such a way so that it looks bad, when it's actually not incriminating at all. It's super, super suspicious. I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) @James Brafin I went up to page 30 something in the thread. Might not have caught them all bc I only looked at posts where I mentioned Danex. I'm a Simp These are the posts I found :/ Spoiler On 1/14/2021 at 0:13 PM, Illwei said: Sigh. Aha! wait...I think I have the word for this now! Based. :P. Okay, Here we go. On one hand: danex....always has controversial opinions. Thinking of reading over MR47 because I wasn't paying so much attention to that, but this is...Quite a strange opinion. On the other hand, this is...I mean, Okay please don't claim. I think the closest we would have to a Vanilla is a lone Warder Spoiler On 1/14/2021 at 0:43 PM, Illwei said: Alas ;-; All you'd get from my flip is a Heartbroken Warden ;-;. (...and a 50 page long spec doc. so choose wisely O.o) I don't really think Danex is all that- (wait. there's a second 'n' in their name now????) I don't really think this is Elimm-y for him. I mean ofc ofc you have your opinions but it really just seems NAI to me. Danex always says something controversial, and pushes that. If anything? I'd give him a small village read for that. I would think that (..theoretically. In a perfect village world? :P) Elims would more rather hop along for the ride rather than...row the boat. or. I'm sure there's a saying there somewhere but I should really stop trying to say things because it's just not working out. :/. I also don't see Danex being "pushy" at all @Shard of Reading and I find it a bit opportunistic of you to hop on him like that. :/ . I don't even know if he plans to stay on me, but I asked him what he would do If I claimed village, and he said he's kill me. other than that I've seen him answer the followups. Extra bits at end- my early order + striker reads. in this one (not the one below) Spoiler On 1/14/2021 at 8:51 PM, Illwei said: Danex actually did respond somewhat, so what I'll say is being aggressive is definitely a towny tell right now for me @James Brafin. While Danex may not see his actions as overly aggressive, he is an aggresive person in that he will solidly take a stance- something I didn't see as much in the MR. my comfbias? possibly, but I would imagine that Elim!danex might sit back a bit D1 like he did in the MR. D1 in the MR he had a few opinions but they were all "this is what I've seen to be an Elim tell" or "Hmmm". nothing like the stance he took today. === Order also currently feels like a newer Elim might be. He's also a bit reserved, and not saying much, though I've seen him Lurking a few times. not much for this one really. Striker is mostly a gut read. His posts so far have been him being confused, and he might be trying to coast by on the edges since the main discussion point has been Danex. Speaking of: I think that the main argument today was almost completely V/V (I swear if Spec/Elims are laughing at me- ) and that the Elims are more likely hanging on the edges like Striker is, trying to coast by. I'm not going to think more on this until the next cycle, though. :P. and after I go back through. and actually take notes. Maybe. Maybe not. We'll see. Maybe there's one Elim or so in the middle of it, but I don't think there's more than one. Spoiler 20 hours ago, Illwei said: I will now respond to mat's reads! (even if no one responds to my posts grumble grumble /s :P) Yeah, those are the points I kept bringing up. You could say that he's learned from his recent Elim game, but this feels way too much like village!Danex to me. He always has controversial opinions and sticks with them. the only thing I don't like about him is his fear of death it seems rn. Been a bit but I don't quite remember that. Honestly with no one else really apparently thinking this, I start to wonder about matr- Bonus item i found!: wierd Lotus read Spoiler On 1/15/2021 at 7:02 AM, Lotus said: How in Randland did we get another 5 pages while I was sleepinggg?! Quick thoughts; Quinn and Illwei seem to be pretty helpful and village-y, though that’s a very mild village because it is c1 after all. Don’t really like how danex has been acting but I’m also unsure about the Danex vote, it kinda feels... off maybe, idk. Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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