Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon

[Guest Breaker]

He’s a rat. 

[Quintessential]

I... jeez I'm discovering that I don't like QFs very much. This is actually exhausting. The exe was solidly for Dannex when I left to eat lunch five minutes before the end of the cycle and then when I got back suddenly it was for Ash. Or, rather, it was tied between Dannex and Ash. This is... disturbing to me, given this is the second time this has happened. Following along with this game is exhausting, both because of the large amount of posts (which are partly my fault, I know) but mainly, for me, apparently nothing happens during the first 23 hours and 55 minutes of the cycle actually matters. I just... y'know, I actually try with my posts analyzing votes and vote-manips and what people are saying but it's getting harder and harder to convince myself it's worth it when no matter how much evidence or how strong a case I can find against someone, in the last five minutes of the cycle the vote unexpectedly shifts to someone else on whom we have nothing. I mean, I know QFs are supposed to be more fun and chaotic but I'm finding this pattern really frustrating.

I'm... gonna put my thoughts on Dannex here, since I feel like if there isn't enough evidence to exe him now there never will be, and then I think I'm gonna go offline for a while.

- he is one of two confirmed Brown Ajahs in this game, and we assume the elims have at least one. 

- both cycles, whenever it's looked like he might end up exed, a countertrain on someone with virtually no evidence against them has miraculously sprung up in literally minutes, which is just... astonishing even on its own.

- after C1, two votes had been removed from Dannex, and after C2 one vote was.

- there are also all kinds of things in terms of reads that people have pointed out at various times: possible scumslips, risky plans, agressiveness... idk whether those are AI, and I thought they were vil-indicative for him if anything at the beginning of this game, but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that.

None of this in and of itself is enough to exe Dannex, but when you take it all together it shows a clear pattern. Just... please, think about it for a second instead of voting off of slight gut reads again. I'm... yeah, I'm gonna take a break from this for a little while. I'll probably be back before the end of the cycle, but...

[James Brafin]

17 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

I... jeez I'm discovering that I don't like QFs very much. This is actually exhausting. The exe was solidly for Dannex when I left to eat lunch five minutes before the end of the cycle and then when I got back suddenly it was for Ash. Or, rather, it was tied between Dannex and Ash. This is... disturbing to me, given this is the second time this has happened. Following along with this game is exhausting, both because of the large amount of posts (which are partly my fault, I know) but mainly, for me, apparently nothing happens during the first 23 hours and 55 minutes of the cycle actually matters. I just... y'know, I actually try with my posts analyzing votes and vote-manips and what people are saying but it's getting harder and harder to convince myself it's worth it when no matter how much evidence or how strong a case I can find against someone, in the last five minutes of the cycle the vote unexpectedly shifts to someone else on whom we have nothing. I mean, I know QFs are supposed to be more fun and chaotic but I'm finding this pattern really frustrating.

I'm... gonna put my thoughts on Dannex here, since I feel like if there isn't enough evidence to exe him now there never will be, and then I think I'm gonna go offline for a while.

- he is one of two confirmed Brown Ajahs in this game, and we assume the elims have at least one. 

- both cycles, whenever it's looked like he might end up exed, a countertrain on someone with virtually no evidence against them has miraculously sprung up in literally minutes, which is just... astonishing even on its own.

- after C1, two votes had been removed from Dannex, and after C2 one vote was.

- there are also all kinds of things in terms of reads that people have pointed out at various times: possible scumslips, risky plans, agressiveness... idk whether those are AI, and I thought they were vil-indicative for him if anything at the beginning of this game, but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that.

None of this in and of itself is enough to exe Dannex, but when you take it all together it shows a clear pattern. Just... please, think about it for a second instead of voting off of slight gut reads again. I'm... yeah, I'm gonna take a break from this for a little while. I'll probably be back before the end of the cycle, but...

Adding onto this, It has occurred to me that every time Dannex has scan, it's been a pretty useless scan for town. There were loads of better scans last night than I, and there were loads of better scans D1 than Liranil.

I don't want to vote yet, I'm still unsure if Dannex is town or not, but that's something else to take into consideration.

[Guest Breaker]

As penance for switching off Dannex, which I personally stand by, if for no other reason than gut -- sorry, James -- I will yield my vote for the round to Gears, and will vote for whomever they request, since they've been pushing Dannex. Teamwork makes the dream work. 

[danex]

20 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

both cycles, whenever it's looked like he might end up exed, a countertrain on someone with virtually no evidence against them has miraculously sprung up in literally minutes, which is just... astonishing even on its own.

This is honestly suspicious, I’d probably vote myself for this, but I don’t think any of the other points hold water. Especially this one:

22 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

there are also all kinds of things in terms of reads that people have pointed out at various times: possible scumslips, risky plans, agressiveness...

I have never Elim-slipped, risky plans are NAI (also it wasn’t even ‘risky’), and ‘aggressiveness’ is basically subjective.

But yeah, voting me for the weird survival push alone makes sense. I can’t even offer an explanation for why it keeps happening because I’m not really sure. I’ve never started any of those myself.

[Gears]

Look, Danex is going to eat up discussion until we get rid of him one way or another. The Liranil vote is still a point against them, the vote manip is a snag, and the Xs we've had thus far have been votes on people for no reason whatsoever. We are stuck here, and this can only be solved by X-ing Danex. Kai, thank you for your loyalty on this day. Thus far, we've used logic and reasoning to trap Danex, and people have saved them over and over. For the village to progress, we must strike them down. 

[Guest Breaker]

Dannex.
Apologies, but I find Gears’ argument compelling, even with my reservations, and I must show solidarity with my Warder. 

Edited January 16, 2021 by Breaker
bolding vote

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Gears said:

Look, Danex is going to eat up discussion until we get rid of him one way or another. The Liranil vote is still a point against them, the vote manip is a snag, and the Xs we've had thus far have been votes on people for no reason whatsoever. We are stuck here, and this can only be solved by X-ing Danex. Kai, thank you for your loyalty on this day. Thus far, we've used logic and reasoning to trap Danex, and people have saved them over and over. For the village to progress, we must strike them down. 

But I don’t wanna...

Dannex

Sigh. Striker starting the Ash wagon when he wasn’t in real danger is just too much of a red flag. Maybe this way we can avoid a 20 pg cycle :/

[James Brafin]

Everyone slow down, I'm trying to parse the setup! We 100% don't want to be hasty about this

[Guest Breaker]

While we slow down, we should throw a party for me, Gears, Lotus, and Burnt, since we're publically bonded. Cool kids only. 

[James Brafin]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

That's what I assumed, which is why I was fine with you running with that, in hopes that the Elims might think that too, and want to kill me. :P.

EDIT:

Has this turned into a guessing competition? While I do love being the center of attention, I think that that's not so useful rn :P.

EDIT EDIT:

Guys, I'm pretty sure that @TJ Shade is the Grey Ajah, and that he removed the vote on Danex just so that my action on Ash wouldn't go through >:(

Wait wait wait
Why would you vote on Ash, and then take an action on ash?

[---]

Striker first pass through: just his posts.

Spoiler

Post 1:

Spoiler

On 1/14/2021 at 4:29 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Guys. You have no idea how much not fun it was to try and get caught up on all of this.

I didn't even really have a chance to guess at the size of the elim team like I normally do on D1. I'm gonna do it anyway. With 19 players, I'd bet there's no less than 4, and 5 is probably pushing the number of elims as well. 

Also, I don't really have much of a read on anyone yet, though it is a bit odd how fast the votes have all been flying around.

- Guesses the Elim team numbers (rounds down? He's assuming 4, but we've already agreed on probably 5.)
 - Shades all the players with jumpy votes (I guess I could go back through and find them :P)

Post 2:

Spoiler

On 1/14/2021 at 8:12 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Honestly same.

I think the gist of it is that everyone was suspecting Dannex for a bit? And now only some of us suspect him and now others of us suspect Connie? I'm not really sure where I stand, because I think Dannex could just be a very defensive player, so the defensiveness could just be that. But I also know that I get really defensive as an elim myself. And I don't even know why some of us suspect Connie. It's been going a bit too fast for me to make sense of that.

And James seems to be a very aggressive player, in my opinion, but that seems to be because of the background he has in other types of mafia games. We're a lot more chill when we play here, focusing more on having fun.

Context: Burnt asks for a tldr, having just popped up.

The vote was on Connie/Danex I think at this point. Definitely Shades Danex more than connie, low low low key defense on connie? who knows.

Mentions James, doesn't give a read.

Post 4:

Spoiler

 

On 1/15/2021 at 7:38 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, don’t have much time to make a post right now, but here’s a quick one.

I’m going to vote on Liranil. I like ties (though I know many people don’t and I assume this tie will be broken soon) because it gives us a lot of information. Who do people want dying when it comes down to the wire like this? Who are the elims willing to show themselves saving, assuming they have vote manipulation? I love the information that comes about when we create ties. Plus the chaos of ties is always fun.

As for why I’m voting Liranil, I also think that their voting pattern has been a bit odd, and I don’t know how I feel about their reasoning for why they’ve voted the way they have. I’m not sure how I feel about Dannex. I’m leaning more village than elim, but we’ll see. Also, I actually kind of read Reading as village. I, for one, didn’t notice the logical error in Reading’s post that Mat pointed out. And I think elims are more likely to notice those kinds of things before they post. Because elims tend to overthink everything before they post or vote or whatever.

 - Village on reading
 - Still incredibly Hedgy on Danex.
 - Makes a tie between Danex and Liranil. (NAI. If Danex was an Elim then Tie at least kills Liranil too. If Danex is Village then two village down.)

 

Post 5:

Spoiler

On 1/15/2021 at 7:53 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Well...I’m certainly glad I couldn’t pull myself away from the thread for very long. Liranil. I don’t know if I necessarily completely believe you, but it would be very unfortunate to lose you this soon in the game.

This is unfortunate though because now I’m the one that broke the tie I loved so much.

And now I’m not sure who to vote for. I’m still leaning village on Dannex. Anyone willing to vote Ash? Their vote on Dannex just felt off to me.

 - Didn't realize that they voted on Ash last turn.
 - Village read on Danex

Post 7:

Spoiler

On 1/15/2021 at 8:05 AM, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, I don’t want to exe you and I don’t want to exe Dannex. Who else am I supposed to vote for? Someone who’s not one of you two.

 - Still village on Danex, Danex still in the lead

Post 9:

Spoiler

On 1/15/2021 at 9:31 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Why are we even suspecting Lotus? I think I’m gonna vote for Dannex instead of Ash. That at least makes more sense to me. The brown claim is a bit odd, at this point.

Lotus gains traction, vote on Danex.

Post 10:

Spoiler

On 1/15/2021 at 9:52 AM, StrikerEZ said:

@TJ Shade Can we get another vote count? This is insane, hard to keep track of things. 

I really don’t understand this sudden shift to Lotus. Where is it even coming from?

More shade on Lotus voters

DAY 2:

Post 1:

Spoiler

On 1/15/2021 at 0:28 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Well, that was...interesting. I'm on break right now (work is really slow today, so my manager said to come back in a couple hours), but I'm about to take a nap before I go back to work. Anyway, Connie is an...interesting kill choice for the elims, assuming that Liranil really did kill Reading. I also didn't even realize that the Warders' ability protects people from being exe'd, so I don't blame Lotus for not saying anything. In the future though, if someone's going to get exed and their a Warder, it might be helpful to let the thread know, so we can decide if we want to waste an exe on that.

 - Backs up lotus living
 - Starts the concern on Connie's death.

Post 2:

Spoiler

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Guys, the last time I was keeping up with the thread as it was happening was when we were on page 3. I had a really busy day yesterday, and slept in a bit this morning. I literally just got caught up with the thread. Why am I under suspicion?

Current suspicions: James (feels like he was pushing too hard for a reason to get Dannex killed), Mat (they’ve contributed, but not a whole lot, helped start both of these random counterwagons), Illwei (they’ve also been apart of these random counterwagons). I don’t really suspect Dannex, but I’d rather not die myself. I’d also prefer to not get either member of the Burnt/Lotus bond killed, because of Burnt is actually a brown like Dannex, that’s really useful.

EDIT: Well, in the time I typed this up, people stopped voting for me. 

 - Still keeps a village read on Danex.
 - Suspicion on James based on Danex vote
 - Suspicion on Mat for CW
 - Suspicion on Illeri for CW
 - Doesn't want Burnt/Lotus to die

Post 3:

Spoiler

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I know, that change happened in the time from when I started that post and when I finally posted it.

Are we really trying to kill Dannex again? I hardly understand why we did that last time (even if it didn’t work), and this cycle has made me feel even more certain he’s village.

Again, doesn't wanna kill Danex. this is getting boring :/

Post 4:

Spoiler

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

What does this even mean?

Right now? One of Illwei, James, or Mat. I was a little suspicious of Ash back before I got really busy this cycle too. That one post where they’re trying to figure out who could’ve attacked Connie felt like they were just looking for something to do without helping too much. 

EDIT: @TJ Shade can we get a vote count?

wants to kill:
 - Illwei
 - James
 - Mat

Parrots my suspicion of ash but this sentence is irrelevant bc striker's ded ;-;

so...my...conclusion here disappeared. 

Uh..

Basically, I think lotus looks suspicious from this. I don't understand the end there. I'm trying to think.

In Day 1, Strike kept a wishy-washy village read on Danex all day. He tried to start up a CW multiple times, but once Lotus was the counterwagon, he suddenly was perfectly fine voting on Danex I...I really have no clue why this is.

Lotus is an Elim, Danex is Village
 - Striker Spent time trying to find a CW to avoid killing danex (pocketing danex)
 - They only have one/two warders, and want to keep them alive to protect their to have a second life in E/lo situations.
 - Striker then wanted to vote on someone else who wasn't lotus once something happened.

Lotus is village, Danex is an Elim
 - Striker didn't want to be on a village CW, for fear of suspicion
 - uh

I got a bit sidetracked sorry. Yeah. I had an original conclusion that made sense but I've been sitting here for an hour trying to remake this post :))))). so.

Overall he's been defensive of Lotus, Lotus/Burnt.

He was trying to start a CW on Danex both days, but...idk.

Coming out of this with sus on Lotus, but I think Danex/Lotus is V/E one way or another, and if Lotus flips E then I'm suspicious of Burnt.

Oh look Quinn posted. I had much better answers but they miraculously dissappeared so here you get this

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

- he is one of two confirmed Brown Ajahs in this game, and we assume the elims have at least one. 

If we assume the Elims have a brown Ajah, do we assume they value it? This point alone means nothing, and can also be applied to Burnt/Lotus.

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

- both cycles, whenever it's looked like he might end up exed, a countertrain on someone with virtually no evidence against them has miraculously sprung up in literally minutes, which is just... astonishing even on its own.

Lotus? I started it. What was the D2 wagon? that's right. I tried to start a CW on Striker. Did no one feel the resistance on that one? it was Just me and Mat. Looking for people on danex who shaded the Striker vote even though I had given reasoning the previous day. Please don't ask me to find it ;-;. I don't know if I can ;-;.

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

- after C1, two votes had been removed from Dannex, and after C2 one vote was.

So are you saying that the first day it was an Elim and a village? and then D2 it was just the Elim?

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

- there are also all kinds of things in terms of reads that people have pointed out at various times: possible scumslips, risky plans, agressiveness... idk whether those are AI, and I thought they were vil-indicative for him if anything at the beginning of this game, but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that.

1: Scumslips - there has been a total of one (1) scumslip, which was a complete misunderstanding, and has since been cleared up.

2: Risky plans - I really am done saying this, but Villagers are more likely to take risks than Elims. this isn't just his meta. You're of course going to sometimes find the Elims that like being in the spotlight or whatnot, but in general, they're not going to want to put themselves in the spotlight, imo.

3: Aggressiveness - so I'd say that Aggressiveness in general isn't AI, but the Aggressiveness in Danex feels much more of a villager pushing their agenda, not worrying about it because they know that their agenda benefits village. The aggressiveness of an Elim I think would be more aggressive in general tone, to try and fake...whatever about a villager. feelings? not right. confusion? trying to fake hide the lack of confusion within aggression? I don't know what I'm talking about now I think I've gone a bit off on a tangent.

"but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that."

confbias? maybe just a little?

---

"So you want to kill danex" should be the name of this show here.

You all assume that Danex is an Elim, and so won't talk about other options. It seems you've all locked on your votes. So I'm going to ask, in the interest of discussion: what are the next steps? How does Danex tie into the Elim team, and who are his teammates?

Spoiler

 

C1:

Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

C2:

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

Elim team?
 - Striker: White Ajah
 - Danex: Brown Ajah
 - ???: Grey Ajah
 - ???: Warder?
 - ???: Warder?

If anyone has anything else they'd like to discuss, please. but let's please not throw all the votes on danex and then not talk about it after his flip. if you all are going to assume that he's Elim, then let's look at that for a bit or something. Or let's look at what happens if he flips vil. Or lets look at Lotus/Striker, Connie/Striker. or, me? look at me. idc. :P.

but please, don't just place votes and then go basically silent about actual discussion until 5 minutes before rollover. :P.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei

[James Brafin]

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Striker first pass through: just his posts.

  Reveal hidden contents

Post 1:

  Reveal hidden contents

- Guesses the Elim team numbers (rounds down? He's assuming 4, but we've already agreed on probably 5.)
 - Shades all the players with jumpy votes (I guess I could go back through and find them :P)

Post 2:

  Reveal hidden contents

Context: Burnt asks for a tldr, having just popped up.

The vote was on Connie/Danex I think at this point. Definitely Shades Danex more than connie, low low low key defense on connie? who knows.

Mentions James, doesn't give a read.

Post 4:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 - Village on reading
 - Still incredibly Hedgy on Danex.
 - Makes a tie between Danex and Liranil. (NAI. If Danex was an Elim then Tie at least kills Liranil too. If Danex is Village then two village down.)

 

Post 5:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Didn't realize that they voted on Ash last turn.
 - Village read on Danex

Post 7:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Still village on Danex, Danex still in the lead

Post 9:

  Reveal hidden contents

Lotus gains traction, vote on Danex.

Post 10:

  Reveal hidden contents

More shade on Lotus voters

DAY 2:

Post 1:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Backs up lotus living
 - Starts the concern on Connie's death.

Post 2:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Still keeps a village read on Danex.
 - Suspicion on James based on Danex vote
 - Suspicion on Mat for CW
 - Suspicion on Illeri for CW
 - Doesn't want Burnt/Lotus to die

Post 3:

  Reveal hidden contents

Again, doesn't wanna kill Danex. this is getting boring :/

Post 4:

  Reveal hidden contents

wants to kill:
 - Illwei
 - James
 - Mat

Parrots my suspicion of ash but this sentence is irrelevant bc striker's ded ;-;

so...my...conclusion here disappeared. 

Uh..

Basically, I think lotus looks suspicious from this. I don't understand the end there. I'm trying to think.

In Day 1, Strike kept a wishy-washy village read on Danex all day. He tried to start up a CW multiple times, but once Lotus was the counterwagon, he suddenly was perfectly fine voting on Danex I...I really have no clue why this is.

Lotus is an Elim, Danex is Village
 - Striker Spent time trying to find a CW to avoid killing danex (pocketing danex)
 - They only have one/two warders, and want to keep them alive to protect their to have a second life in E/lo situations.
 - Striker then wanted to vote on someone else who wasn't lotus once something happened.

Lotus is village, Danex is an Elim
 - Striker didn't want to be on a village CW, for fear of suspicion
 - uh

I got a bit sidetracked sorry. Yeah. I had an original conclusion that made sense but I've been sitting here for an hour trying to remake this post :))))). so.

Overall he's been defensive of Lotus, Lotus/Burnt.

He was trying to start a CW on Danex both days, but...idk.

Coming out of this with sus on Lotus, but I think Danex/Lotus is V/E one way or another, and if Lotus flips E then I'm suspicious of Burnt.

Oh look Quinn posted. I had much better answers but they miraculously dissappeared so here you get this

If we assume the Elims have a brown Ajah, do we assume they value it? This point alone means nothing, and can also be applied to Burnt/Lotus.

Lotus? I started it. What was the D2 wagon? that's right. I tried to start a CW on Striker. Did no one feel the resistance on that one? it was Just me and Mat. Looking for people on danex who shaded the Striker vote even though I had given reasoning the previous day. Please don't ask me to find it ;-;. I don't know if I can ;-;.

So are you saying that the first day it was an Elim and a village? and then D2 it was just the Elim?

1: Scumslips - there has been a total of one (1) scumslip, which was a complete misunderstanding, and has since been cleared up.

2: Risky plans - I really am done saying this, but Villagers are more likely to take risks than Elims. this isn't just his meta. You're of course going to sometimes find the Elims that like being in the spotlight or whatnot, but in general, they're not going to want to put themselves in the spotlight, imo.

3: Aggressiveness - so I'd say that Aggressiveness in general isn't AI, but the Aggressiveness in Danex feels much more of a villager pushing their agenda, not worrying about it because they know that their agenda benefits village. The aggressiveness of an Elim I think would be more aggressive in general tone, to try and fake...whatever about a villager. feelings? not right. confusion? trying to fake hide the lack of confusion within aggression? I don't know what I'm talking about now I think I've gone a bit off on a tangent.

"but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that."

confbias? maybe just a little?

---

"So you want to kill danex" should be the name of this show here.

You all assume that Danex is an Elim, and so won't talk about other options. It seems you've all locked on your votes. So I'm going to ask, in the interest of discussion: what are the next steps? How does Danex tie into the Elim team, and who are his teammates?

  Reveal hidden contents

 

C1:

Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

C2:

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

Elim team?
 - Striker: White Ajah
 - Danex: Brown Ajah
 - ???: Grey Ajah
 - ???: Warder?
 - ???: Warder?

If anyone has anything else they'd like to discuss, please. but let's please not throw all the votes on danex and then not talk about it after his flip. if you all are going to assume that he's Elim, then let's look at that for a bit or something. Or let's look at what happens if he flips vil. Or lets look at Lotus/Striker, Connie/Striker. or, me? look at me. idc. :P.

but please, don't just place votes and then go basically silent about actual discussion until 5 minutes before rollover. :P.

So, Illwei, these are all fine reasons why Dannex are not Elim.
What reasons do you have for Dannex being town?
(Also, if you'd answer my above post that would be great)

Edited January 16, 2021 by James Brafin

[Guest Breaker]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Striker first pass through: just his posts.

  Reveal hidden contents

Post 1:

  Reveal hidden contents

- Guesses the Elim team numbers (rounds down? He's assuming 4, but we've already agreed on probably 5.)
 - Shades all the players with jumpy votes (I guess I could go back through and find them :P)

Post 2:

  Reveal hidden contents

Context: Burnt asks for a tldr, having just popped up.

The vote was on Connie/Danex I think at this point. Definitely Shades Danex more than connie, low low low key defense on connie? who knows.

Mentions James, doesn't give a read.

Post 4:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 - Village on reading
 - Still incredibly Hedgy on Danex.
 - Makes a tie between Danex and Liranil. (NAI. If Danex was an Elim then Tie at least kills Liranil too. If Danex is Village then two village down.)

 

Post 5:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Didn't realize that they voted on Ash last turn.
 - Village read on Danex

Post 7:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Still village on Danex, Danex still in the lead

Post 9:

  Reveal hidden contents

Lotus gains traction, vote on Danex.

Post 10:

  Reveal hidden contents

More shade on Lotus voters

DAY 2:

Post 1:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Backs up lotus living
 - Starts the concern on Connie's death.

Post 2:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Still keeps a village read on Danex.
 - Suspicion on James based on Danex vote
 - Suspicion on Mat for CW
 - Suspicion on Illeri for CW
 - Doesn't want Burnt/Lotus to die

Post 3:

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Again, doesn't wanna kill Danex. this is getting boring :/

Post 4:

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wants to kill:
 - Illwei
 - James
 - Mat

Parrots my suspicion of ash but this sentence is irrelevant bc striker's ded ;-;

so...my...conclusion here disappeared. 

Uh..

Basically, I think lotus looks suspicious from this. I don't understand the end there. I'm trying to think.

In Day 1, Strike kept a wishy-washy village read on Danex all day. He tried to start up a CW multiple times, but once Lotus was the counterwagon, he suddenly was perfectly fine voting on Danex I...I really have no clue why this is.

Lotus is an Elim, Danex is Village
 - Striker Spent time trying to find a CW to avoid killing danex (pocketing danex)
 - They only have one/two warders, and want to keep them alive to protect their to have a second life in E/lo situations.
 - Striker then wanted to vote on someone else who wasn't lotus once something happened.

Lotus is village, Danex is an Elim
 - Striker didn't want to be on a village CW, for fear of suspicion
 - uh

I got a bit sidetracked sorry. Yeah. I had an original conclusion that made sense but I've been sitting here for an hour trying to remake this post :))))). so.

Overall he's been defensive of Lotus, Lotus/Burnt.

He was trying to start a CW on Danex both days, but...idk.

Coming out of this with sus on Lotus, but I think Danex/Lotus is V/E one way or another, and if Lotus flips E then I'm suspicious of Burnt.

If we assume the Elims have a brown Ajah, do we assume they value it? This point alone means nothing, and can also be applied to Burnt/Lotus.

How would the Elims not value a Brown? It can find Aes Sedai for them, which are priority targets, not to mention it can find Greens, Yellows, Greys, and Blues, which are obstacles to their victory. Greens are super powerful, to the point they already killed ours. Yellows are also super useful for protecting public villagers/Greens/etc, Greys stop them from winning the game with a majority, and Blues can FIND THE KILLER, which I did last night. A Brown is super critical for an Elim team. Nobody else in play would be as powerful, at this stage of the game, than a Brown Eliminator. 

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

So, Illwei, these are all fine reasons why Dannex are not Elim.
What reasons do you have for Dannex being town?

What's the difference :P.

---

And am I the king of flopping votes? Listening to other people (perhaps to too great of lengths)? Sheeping Illwei this game?

All yeses. And honestly, I'm looking for any reason not to exe Dannex because I still read him as village. The Striker thing is weird... but not overpowering. Dannex, Lotus. 

Still willing to exe Quinn though.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

56 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Why would you vote on Ash, and then take an action on ash?

Oh right, yeah.

because I'm an idiot who never looked at the Order of Operations -_-.

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

How would the Elims not value a Brown? It can find Aes Sedai for them, which are priority targets, not to mention it can find Greens, Yellows, Greys, and Blues, which are obstacles to their victory. Greens are super powerful, to the point they already killed ours. Yellows are also super useful for protecting public villagers/Greens/etc, Greys stop them from winning the game with a majority, and Blues can FIND THE KILLER, which I did last night. A Brown is super critical for an Elim team. Nobody else in play would be as powerful, at this stage of the game, than a Brown Eliminator. 

My point was, we now know that Lotus claimed to be bonded with a brown, and that Striker tried to make sure Lotus wasn't the one to get killed.

[Guest Breaker]

Just now, Illwei said:

My point was, we now know that Lotus claimed to be bonded with a brown, and that Striker tried to make sure Lotus wasn't the one to get killed.

Oh! That's interesting. 

[---]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And am I the king of flopping votes? Listening to other people (perhaps to too great of lengths)? Sheeping Illwei this game?

:///

Mat this isn't like you tho

EDIT:

You were willing to vote striker with me so-
that won't hold much weight near the end though

Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei

[Guest Breaker]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And am I the king of flopping votes?

Wait, no, that's me. Give me back my crown, Mat. 

[James Brafin]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What's the difference :P.

---

And am I the king of flopping votes? Listening to other people (perhaps to too great of lengths)? Sheeping Illwei this game?

All yeses. And honestly, I'm looking for any reason not to exe Dannex because I still read him as village. The Striker thing is weird... but not overpowering. Dannex, Lotus. 

Still willing to exe Quinn though.

It's subtle, I'll grant you that. But all Illwei has done so far, at least from what I can recall, is give us reason after reason that Dannex isn't elim; i.e. just discrediting any sort of evidence brought against Dannex.
They haven't, on the other hand, provided any reason to us to think that Dannex is town; Illwei hasn't provided any sort of reasoning that we should believe that Dannex should be town, rather than Elim.

Edit... To be fair, you haven't really, either, at least not in my memory. Would you like to share?

Edited January 16, 2021 by James Brafin

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

It's subtle, I'll grant you that. But all Illwei has done so far, at least from what I can recall, is give us reason after reason that Dannex isn't elim; i.e. just discrediting any sort of evidence brought against Dannex.
They haven't, on the other hand, provided any reason to us to think that Dannex is town; Illwei hasn't provided any sort of reasoning that we should believe that Dannex should be town, rather than Elim.

Edit... To be fair, you haven't really, either, at least not in my memory. Would you like to share?

But what is the difference there? If there are a bunch of reasons why someone isn't evil the only other option is that they're good.

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Mat this isn't like you tho

Oh I'm aware

I think part of it is that we reach the same conclusions but you do it faster :P.

[James Brafin]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But what is the difference there? If there are a bunch of reasons why someone isn't evil the only other option is that they're good.

Oh I'm aware

I think part of it is that we reach the same conclusions but you do it faster :P.

You haven't given us a bunch of reasons for why he's not Elim though, you've just discredited ours, which is fallacious. You're right in that Not elim = town, but evidence for not elim =/= evidence for town. You need to provide some sort of reason that Dannex might be town. You and Illwei keep telling us you read him as village -- but I don't think either of you have ever given us a single reason why.

Edit:
Another thought: If y'all are so sure he's town, you in particular are awfully ready and eager to just sheep town and shrek him. One minute the striker thing was "too much a red flag," the next it's "not overwhelming." So which is it? 

Edited January 16, 2021 by James Brafin

[danex]

3 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

You haven't given us a bunch of reasons for why he's not Elim though, you've just discredited ours, which is fallacious. You're right in that Not elim = town, but evidence for not elim =/= evidence for town. You need to provide some sort of reason that Dannex might be town. You and Illwei keep telling us you read him as village -- but I don't think either of you have ever given us a single reason why.

Burden of proof logical fallacy. You’re making the claim that I’m Elim, burden of proof falls on you.

Also, Burnt. Because I doubt there’s another Brown, and I know I’m village, and I doubt both Browns are vil.

[---]

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think part of it is that we reach the same conclusions but you do it faster :P.

Can't keep up with my god-tier reads B).

10 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

You and Illwei keep telling us you read him as village -- but I don't think either of you have ever given us a single reason why.

Okaay. I am definitely not about to look back through all my posts for my reasoning. I have said it. I even said it in that post that you quoted when you said "there's nothing here" which makes me think you didn't read it.

 - He's pushing his opinions, even though they're controversial and what started all of this. something I don't see Elim!Danex doing, being self aware enough to know he has controversial opinions, and always gets attacked for them.

 - EoD2 he was A-Okay with being tied with striker. just read through that. that would have guaranteed at least one Elim death if they were both Elims.

Other things but they're all small. but what isn't? What do you want me to be able to say: I can see his Role PM?

But I have given reasons, and I've given them over and over again.

10 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

you've just discredited ours, which is fallacious

Since when did this become "ours", James? In last EoD you were against killing Danex too. you're making no sense here whatsoever.

5 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Burden of proof logical fallacy. You’re making the claim that I’m Elim, burden of proof falls on you.

I-

Well, okay.

Yes and no

In this case, you (in the general, but right now @james apparently), with the rest of 'em, are mistakenly attacking Danex. there's not much else we can do, except counter those points.

I countered your points. you can't turn around and then say "no u". You're making the argument and I showed you why I think you're wrong. come up with new points instead of throwing the same ones back at me.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei

[Guest Breaker]

5 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Also, Burnt. Because I doubt there’s another Brown, and I know I’m village, and I doubt both Browns are vil.

Sorry, Dannex. I can’t let you do that.