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19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

You were also the person who said they did it to cast suspicion on you. Trying to tell us that you're the innocent one and it was to frame you, not save you.

Well that’s obviously the conclusion I would come to. Because I’m village! I’m frankly just as confused about it as the rest of you, the ‘maybe they’re trying to frame me?’ was the only reason I could think of to explain it. 
And the crazy thing is, if that is what the Elims are doing, I foiled their plan, I figured it out. But it’s still working.

 

EDIT:

WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT

I figured it out. The solution lies in the mechanics of the Grey Ajah. They don’t remove a vote from a person, they remove a person’s vote. 

Look at the end of last cycle! Votes were flying around like crazy! People changing votes left and right. The Greys have no control on who their target votes, and votes were changing like crazy all the way up to the end of the cycle. One even happened 30 seconds after the cycle technically ended. 

Boom. Solution. Remove your votes please. :P:D
 

Edit 2: Is that actually how Greys work? This is what the rules say:

Quote
  • Grey Ajah: You are a brilliant negotiator, and dedicated to politics and diplomacy. You thrive in conflict resolution, and your diplomatic skills are second to none. You can use your skills and cancel one vote (or change one null vote) per turn.

The “cancel one vote” makes it seem to me like they target a vote and then that vote is canceled, but I guess technically it could be either way.

@TJ Shade

Edited by Dannex
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23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

You still haven't responded to the part that I tagged you in, Quinn :P.

Sorry! My parents called me to eat dinner and I couldn't finish writing the post. I wanted to get the part that I'd written posted so the Shard wouldn't eat it : P 

Uhhh only I'm not quite sure what you mean by the bit you tagged me about... could you... maybe restate? I have a headache from a calc-based physics quiz so my current comprehension level is probably not fantastic

20 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Look at the end of last cycle! Votes were flying around like crazy! People changing votes left and right. The Greys have no control on who their target votes, and votes were changing like crazy all the way up to the end of the cycle. One even happened 30 seconds after the cycle technically ended. 

Hmmm. That... okay that's actually a fair point... which I'm realizing I mentioned at the beginning of the cycle. I... forgot about that somehow. So... two people tried to save people--either Dannex or Lotus, probably, though it could also be Liranil or Connie if the person submitted the vote-manip and then immediately went inactive for the rest of the cycle. And... well that makes the argument for Dannex a lot... weaker... *glances back at the rapid tunneling I just did* :rolleyes: sorry? oof. I swear I started this cycle out thinking you were at least solf-cleared... I blame the physics homework!

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And now it's time for your favorite extra-cosmere game show: Who! Killed! Connie!!!!!

Or tried to.

Or, technically, who decided to try to.

You get the point.

 

I'm gonna go on a limb and say it wasn't Reading. Besides that we have the general player list.

Matrim, Gears, Ashbringer, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil, Striker, Unknown Order, James Brafin, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks, Devotary, Connie, Kings Way

Nobody's been truly inactive at the start of the game, so I can't exclude people that way. Some people have been inactive ish, but they have been on to check the thread so I can't discount that they may be following along and checking the thread.

Matrim, Gears, Ashbringer, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil, Striker, Unknown Order, James Brafin, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks, Devotary, Connie, Kings Way

Seems familiar...

This is going to be a little less empirical than my MR47 just because Connie doesn't have the same... uh... reputation that Araris has. That and they're still alive to yell at me. But Connie is usually a talkative person, but hasn't been so talkative this game.

Kings Way hasn't been on for 5 hours, and from what I remember in LG70 they weren't very active about putting forward kill suggestions even when they were more active. Burnt hasn't been on in 3 hours, but seeing as as of now that would leave her signing off the thread with 30 minutes to go, that doesn't tell us much. I'll also take off Connie for now, because while I am slightly suspicious of a WGG I don't think it would be Connie's own idea alone.

Matrim, Gears, Ashbringer, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil, Striker, Unknown Order, James Brafin, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks, Devotary,

I'll take off The Unknown Order as well, because they're new. (James, you're too good at this to get off on new-player-syndrome alone :P)

Matrim, Gears, Ashbringer, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil, Striker, James Brafin, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks, Devotary,

Liranil claimed Green Ajah and their chosen target died. I think this is believable. Whether they have no Warders or not, I'm not sure. I'm not knocking out Dannex here, because Brown Ajah seems more possible to be on an Elim team and it's also possible that Elim!Dannex knows Village!Liranil is unlikely to lie about their own role.

Matrim, Gears, Ashbringer, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Striker, James Brafin, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks, Devotary,

That's as far as I can get without looking at Connie specifically, and is probably where I would be comfortable voting because it's also as far as I can get off... purely non-gut instincts. Connie is a newer player than Araris is, and I don't think she's died early all that often. She also tends to post a lot (and a lot of it being more fluff-y than not), but hasn't so much this game that I can see. She tends to be more on the PM-y side as well, claiming fairly easily and building trust with people. She also hasn't been an Elim from what I can remember, or at least isn't an experienced one.

So I feel like I can do a little more with instinct.

I feel like Flyingbooks and Striker would be unlikely to pick any D1 Elim kill for activity and past habits/reputations. Although I feel better on Books than Striker for that.

Matrim, Gears, Ashbringer, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, James Brafin, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary,

I also feel that James Brafin and Archer, while perfectly capable of picking kill candidates, wouldn't pick Connie. In addition, they'd likely both have such decisions "vetted" by another player. (As would a kill decision by Breaker, but I could more see Elim!Breaker killing Connie, especially considering the PM with Gears.) I'll also remove Ashbringer/myself here because, well, for one thing I'm not an Elim (surprise!) and for another I... don't know why I would kill Connie.

That leaves us with:

Matrim, Gears, Breaker, Quinn0928, Lotus, Burnt, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary,

I think this is a more reasonable group.

Quinn, Lotus, and Illwei all sort of have the same methods as Connie, where they do a lot of fluff-posts along with a lot of PMing. I could see any of them trying to limit that niche. More Quinn/Illwei than Lotus.

Devotary I could see connecting that a normally-talkative (and fairly good rally-er) player is trying to build up to speed and decide to kill them.

Burnt I feel could fit in either the above catagories, but was also less active, so it evens out.

Gears and Breaker... there's not really a question that they have some communications. This is odd for Gears, although him trying to be chaotic is acceptable. I could also see Gears just killing Connie as a player who knows them really well.

Matrim voted for Connie before the Liranil-Lotus-Dannex trio popped up and recently voted again. Plus they more fit the profile. I don't know if anyone has ever bussed a WGG before, but I would not put it past Mat to be the first.

Dannex... I have no idea. But I can't really discount you in any way.

 

I'm going to start by voting on Illwei. @Illwei, why did you vote on Lotus? You were the first to do so and quite a train hopped up behind you, but you didn't seem to have much of a reason? And why do you want Liranil to kill them now?

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I probably missed something, because I'm trying to get caught up. :unsure:

47 minutes ago, Dannex said:

WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT

I figured it out. The solution lies in the mechanics of the Grey Ajah. They don’t remove a vote from a person, they remove a person’s vote. 

Look at the end of last cycle! Votes were flying around like crazy! People changing votes left and right. The Greys have no control on who their target votes, and votes were changing like crazy all the way up to the end of the cycle. One even happened 30 seconds after the cycle technically ended. 

Boom. Solution. Remove your votes please. :P:D

I'm not sure if that's how it works in this game, but that's how it worked in MR47. The rules are a little unclear, they just say they can "cancel one vote."

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

At this point I'm willing to vote out danex to get this confusion over with.

I still don't like how fast everyone is to hop on.

Kill Danex, Liranil kills Lotus.

I'm not super confident about knocking out the two people under suspicion last time... Although we know they're more likely to actually die/lose their Warder protection.

57 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I like this part.

Remaining yellows, protect Liranil. Thanks.

:D I mean if there are multiple, staggered protects would be nice... but that would be difficult to arrange without PMs. 

25 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Sorry! My parents called me to eat dinner and I couldn't finish writing the post. I wanted to get the part that I'd written posted so the Shard wouldn't eat it : P 

Uhhh only I'm not quite sure what you mean by the bit you tagged me about... could you... maybe restate? I have a headache from a calc-based physics quiz so my current comprehension level is probably not fantastic

Hmmm. That... okay that's actually a fair point... which I'm realizing I mentioned at the beginning of the cycle. I... forgot about that somehow. So... two people tried to save people--either Dannex or Lotus, probably, though it could also be Liranil or Connie if the person submitted the vote-manip and then immediately went inactive for the rest of the cycle. And... well that makes the argument for Dannex a lot... weaker... *glances back at the rapid tunneling I just did* :rolleyes: sorry? oof. I swear I started this cycle out thinking you were at least solf-cleared... I blame the physics homework!

Physics'll do that to ya. XD

My brain is trying to catch up cuz there's so much. Overall, I like Ash's post, and I agree with their lowering-down list, at least up to the part where they leaned more on gut. I'm naturally inclined to be suspicious of everyone, but my top elim reads atm are James, a little of Dannex, and I'm still unsure about Gears. 

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Two of Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation had their vote removed.

Ash:
 - 14 hours in places a vote on Danex

Breaker: (smh Breaker why do I have to spoil this /s)

Spoiler

 - 13 Hours remaining: votes James
 - 12 Hours remaining: votes Books
 - 11 Hours ramaining: votes Liranil
 - 2 Hours remaining: votes Reading

 - 1 Hours remaining: votes Liranil
 - 10 minutes remaining: votes Danex

Lotus:
 - 10 Minutes remaining: Votes Danex

Liranil:

Spoiler

 - 20 Hours remaining: Votes Gears
 - 13 Hours remaining: Votes Danex
 - 30 minutes remaining: Votes Lotus
 - ... er, what?? there's a danex vote somewhere idk

Bonus:

Spoiler
8 hours ago, Liranil said:

You're way too sus of me, James, for trying to prevent a tie.

???????????

Striker:
 - 3 Hours remaining: Votes Liranil
 - 2 Hours remaining: Votes Ash
 - 30 minutes remaining: Votes Danex

Condensation:
 - okay I really couldn't find this but imma just assume it's in the beginning of the cycle somewhere.

So basically what's my conclusion here? absolutely nothing, this is pure iioa because I am a helptul villager hehe.
There doesn't seem to be a point where two of our people were sitting on the same person that wasn't Danex. Oh course, if we assume one of each alignment then ofc they don't have to be. Honestly if I was the village vote manip I think I would have been on breaker :P. too unpredictable :P.


Sooooooo that took me way longer than i expected for some reason. I mean, still not that long, but definitely longer than I expected.

@Liranil @The Unknown Order You are the two with Elim reads on James. Can you explain these to me? something that doesn't rely on gut/tone/vibes? (though I will say that of those three, vibes definitely has more weight :P. ...no...that's....not the saying... ://// Holds? more weight?
(Also anyone else with Elim reads on James please let me know why please yes)


1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm going to start by voting on Illwei. @Illwei, why did you vote on Lotus? You were the first to do so and quite a train hopped up behind you, but you didn't seem to have much of a reason? And why do you want Liranil to kill them now?

:3 Whenever I see my name in red I get those butterflies in my stomach or whatnot ya know :wub:

Uh, idk. bc I don't want Danex to die? I don't think Danex should die?

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

all sort of have the same methods as Connie, where they do a lot of fluff-posts along with a lot of PMing. I could see any of them trying to limit that niche. More Quinn/Illwei than Lotus.

I'd also...disagree. That I have the same methods as Connie? I didn't realize that that's what you see :P. I also only see this applying to be a reasonable kill in a PM game, which...this isn't :P. And not to mention, in a PM game I wouldn't try to kill off the people who would more likely spill any and all secrets that they know :P. Which, Quinn definitely is one of those :P.
Personally, I also see Quinn and Connie as new players who haven't really played a game without PMs (- MR47) and so perhaps I would leave them alive, thinking they wouldn't perform as well for a bit. And in a game without PMs, there's no need at all to limit the PMers. :P.

You also inclue lotus in this category? Lotus is usually a minimal poster, which, yes, most of it is usually RP (which I kiiiinda see a tad differently than pure fluff/game fluff/chaos okay there's a whole bunch of different groups that you could group things in-) but I've never known Lotus as an Avid PMer? @Lotus Just correct me if I'm wrong here. I know I personally haven't ever tried to talk to you really in PMs, so maybe I just don't see this.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I feel like Flyingbooks and Striker would be unlikely to pick any D1 Elim kill for activity and past habits/reputations. Although I feel better on Books than Striker for that.

The fact that you feel better about Books than Striker here is strange to me. Books definitely knows Connie better, so if the killer was killing Connie based on their past games (which, tell me what they would be killing Connie for there? In her past games she's been almost killed every time and then the village kinda gives up on that), then Books would definitely fit that better than Striker.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Gears and Breaker... there's not really a question that they have some communications. This is odd for Gears, although him trying to be chaotic is acceptable. I could also see Gears just killing Connie as a player who knows them really well.

Does Connie know Gears really well? if this is the main point here: why wouldn't Gears kill anyone else? You'd know him better. Mat would know him better. I would know him better. I see no reason for this to be a reason he kills Connie?

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Matrim voted for Connie before the Liranil-Lotus-Dannex trio popped up and recently voted again. [1] Plus they more fit the profile. [2] I don't know if anyone has ever bussed a WGG before, but I would not put it past Mat to be the first.

[1] The profile of...what? I didn't see you identify one in the first place? The profile of someone who would kill connie? cool! what is that? Someone who didn't want a less-talkative Connie in the game? Someone who was looking for a safe kill? Someone who wanted to get rid of the people they knew?

[2] You go assuming it's a WGG, or trying to tell us that it is again. so your reasoning for Mat relies on Connie also being an Elim?

So, honestly? Ash. I see him trying to pull reasoning out of thin air when he has none, because he's the one who submitted the kill B) your welcome, game solved.

Edited by Illwei
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1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Uh, idk. bc I don't want Danex to die? I don't think Danex should die?

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

But why Lotus of all people. There were people who already had votes on them at that point. You chose to vote for Lotus.

Why?

I'll respond to the rest later

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4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Lotus Just correct me if I'm wrong here. I know I personally haven't ever tried to talk to you really in PMs, so maybe I just don't see this.

Nope you are correct. I have had a few pretty pm heavy games, but I wouldnt concider myself a “avid PMer”

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Guest Breaker
1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

...In addition, they'd likely both have such decisions "vetted" by another player. (As would a kill decision by Breaker, but I could more see Elim!Breaker killing Connie, especially considering the PM with Gears.)

...

Gears and Breaker... there's not really a question that they have some communications. This is odd for Gears, although him trying to be chaotic is acceptable. I could also see Gears just killing Connie as a player who knows them really well.

Oh, Gears and Connie have a history? I'll be asking about this one. :))

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7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

And not to mention, in a PM game I wouldn't try to kill off the people who would more likely spill any and all secrets that they know :P. Which, Quinn definitely is one of those :P.

Well first of all this isn't a PM game and second of all heeeyyyyy just because it's true doesn't mean you can just say things like that! I'm hurt :( 

Also Ash how dare you call me a fluff-poster! she says in a fluff-post

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1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

But why Lotus of all people. There were people who already had votes on them at that point. You chose to vote for Lotus.

Why?

I'll respond to the rest later

We know lotus is a warder right? Do we know who they’re bonded to? Maybe it’s Illwei, and he started a push because he knew lotus would survive.

Probably not, but it’s an explanation.

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2 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Probably not, but it’s an explanation.

I already told you all that my warder slipped yesterday :P. and fell down the stairs
No one wants to go a-huntin' through the D1 pages to find it? :P.

3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

[1] Well first of all this isn't a PM game and second of all [2] heeeyyyyy just because it's true doesn't mean you can just say things like that! I'm hurt :( 

[1] Yeah, that was kinda my point, which is why Ash's logic don't make no sense. :P.

[2] ;-; I'm sowwy <3 <3 <3 do u still love me? ;-;

Edited by Illwei
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1 minute ago, Dannex said:

We know lotus is a warder right? Do we know who they’re bonded to? Maybe it’s Illwei, and he started a push because he knew lotus would survive.

Probably not, but it’s an explanation.

I am not bonded to Illwei.

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2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

No one wants to go a-huntin' through the D1 pages to find it? :P.

Hmmm no there were only, what, 19 pages of D1 material? I don't think any of us really feel like reading back through for that one specific thing.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

[2] ;-; I'm sowwy <3 <3 <3 do u still love me? ;-;

....alright fine yes I still love you ^_^

Edited by Quinn0928
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Guest Breaker
11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

 

Breaker: (smh Breaker why do I have to spoil this /s)

  Reveal hidden contents

 - 13 Hours remaining: votes James
 - 12 Hours remaining: votes Books
 - 11 Hours ramaining: votes Liranil
 - 2 Hours remaining: votes Reading

 - 1 Hours remaining: votes Liranil
 - 10 minutes remaining: votes Danex

 

Because I like joke votes and prefer to pad the winner near the end of the Cycle to thwart Elim vote manip! If I'd been more conscious of the vote count, I'd have changed again at the last minute to vote Lotus! Down with the Grey Ajah! >>:))

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32 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But why Lotus of all people. There were people who already had votes on them at that point. You chose to vote for Lotus.

A large pile of gut. Pretty much that's it.

Also I want to follow Illwei onto Ash but I've just followed Illwei around this whole game and I'm working on not being so easy to sway because that is definitely something I should work on :P.

Anyway, have some reads! Woo!

  • Dannex: A perhaps controversial Village. I don't see him sticking with the ideas and plans he had the way he did otherwise. MR47 he was definitely flying under the radar as much as he could, and I don't see that here at all.
  • Illwei: Our reads are nearly identical and I don't know what to think about that. Null.
  • Lotus: Gut Slight Elim, don't ask for reasoning because there isn't any.
  • James: Can any of the people reading him evil tell me why they think so? Null.
  • Condensation: A pinch of gut, a bit of the vote on Dannex, a bit of 'her being attacked makes zero sense to me unless WGG'. Mild Elim.
  • Gears/Breaker: Gut Slight Village. Might also be that I don't see them coordinating something like this as elims, that seems rather on the nose. But it's also Gears, sooooo
  • Ash: I don't know what to think about this. Null
  • Quinn: I'd have to check her village games, but I recall Quinn... taking the charge, coming up with ideas, etc more in her elim game, and I see her doing the same now. I kinda read the flip-flopping Dannex votes as trying to do it villagery on purpose, but that thought could have naturally evolved from the former. Slight Elim.

I'll do other people later, maybe. Also, to mix things up, Quinn0928. Voting Connie was mostly ignored. Let's see what happens here.

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Okay, because after an hour of waiting Illwei posted and now everyone has things to say, let's see what I can do.

For one thing, Matrim, Dannex, and Gears are in their own groups because I can't find any reason to say they wouldn't want to kill Connie. For example, I don't think Striker would swing at Connie besides random chance, largely because I don't think they've ever played with Connie before (???) and they're more experienced. Matrim and Gears I think would at least consider killing Connie more.

51 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'd also...disagree. That I have the same methods as Connie? I didn't realize that that's what you see :P. I also only see this applying to be a reasonable kill in a PM game, which...this isn't :P. And not to mention, in a PM game I wouldn't try to kill off the people who would more likely spill any and all secrets that they know :P. Which, Quinn definitely is one of those :P.
Personally, I also see Quinn and Connie as new players who haven't really played a game without PMs (- MR47) and so perhaps I would leave them alive, thinking they wouldn't perform as well for a bit. And in a game without PMs, there's no need at all to limit the PMers. :P.

You also inclue lotus in this category? Lotus is usually a minimal poster, which, yes, most of it is usually RP (which I kiiiinda see a tad differently than pure fluff/game fluff/chaos okay there's a whole bunch of different groups that you could group things in-) but I've never known Lotus as an Avid PMer? @Lotus Just correct me if I'm wrong here. I know I personally haven't ever tried to talk to you really in PMs, so maybe I just don't see this.

Again, I'm not really sure why you would decide to kill Connie. The point is I think it's quite plausible you would, for one reason or another, and I can't discount it for any reason. And I think you and Quinn are similar enough in playstyle that you could follow the same reasons. Lotus, to some degree, as well.

(And remember, I don't know PMs... I know Lotus isn't as active as Illwei/Quinn but I still feel like she's more similar to you than, say, Matrim.)

51 minutes ago, Illwei said:

The fact that you feel better about Books than Striker here is strange to me. Books definitely knows Connie better, so if the killer was killing Connie based on their past games (which, tell me what they would be killing Connie for there? In her past games she's been almost killed every time and then the village kinda gives up on that), then Books would definitely fit that better than Striker.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Because I've been Elim with Books before. Granted, that was their first game, but they definitely didn't do too much with the Elim kill that I can remember. And from seeing them play I don't think most of that's changed.

Striker my only real feeling about is that I'm 99% sure they didn't actually RNG me to become the Kandra after Araris died in LG66

51 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Does Connie know Gears really well? if this is the main point here: why wouldn't Gears kill anyone else? You'd know him better. Mat would know him better. I would know him better. I see no reason for this to be a reason he kills Connie?

Gears has been playing mostly regularly for a while, as has Connie. So while I don't know how well the two get along, I can guaruntee that Gears knows Connie better than, say, Striker (and vice versa, Connie knows Gears better than Striker). And again, it's less that Gears would kill Connie over anyone else, ever, than Gears would consider killing Connie given the present scenario.

51 minutes ago, Illwei said:

[1] The profile of...what? I didn't see you identify one in the first place? The profile of someone who would kill connie? cool! what is that? Someone who didn't want a less-talkative Connie in the game? Someone who was looking for a safe kill? Someone who wanted to get rid of the people they knew?

[2] You go assuming it's a WGG, or trying to tell us that it is again. so your reasoning for Mat relies on Connie also being an Elim?

So, honestly? Ash. I see him trying to pull reasoning out of thin air when he has none, because he's the one who submitted the kill B) your welcome, game solved.

Edited 7 minu

Profile of "I don't have a reason, gut based or logic based, why this person wouldn't kill Connie D1". For Mat, I do not. Perhaps for someone more Lawful, voting on Connie would discount it, but for Mat? Yeah... Mat is definitely on the Chaotic spectrum... it doesn't depend on Connie being a WGG but I'm more trying to say I could see Mat voting on and WGGing a person D1. Edit: And, Mat insists he thinks it's a WGG. Which could mean a few different things.

Also, this is much harder for Connie than Araris. Araris had a reputation for getting fear-killed, a reputation a lot of the newer players didn't know about. Connie doesn't have that. 

 

And you still haven't answered my question on why you voted Lotus.

(I've been ninja'd 4 times writing this, so hopefully nothing goes wrong)

 

Edit: Hey! Illwei! You wanted opinions? I have opinions! :P

Edited by Ashbringer
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