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12 minutes ago, Breaker said:

There is nothing that would make me vote for you this round, treasured Illwei. Yours is a presence I treasure. 

:ShallanBlush:  :3

--

@Matrim's Dice You never told me what you thought of Archer ;-;

Edited by Illwei
I pressed "enter". and it. posted. .... ?????
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Guest Breaker
2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

That would be the implication of referring to her as "treasured Illwei", yeah XD

I
I'm multitasking a lot, don't be mean :((((((((
 

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18 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Yes, but ask yourself, Gears: Why would it look suspicious, if we don't actually know what Lotus' alignment is? It can't cause suspicion for a mis-X unless Dannex is indeed town.

I also disagree. He says very clearly, "The other was from an Elim trying to make me look sus for a mis-X." He does indeed assume that this is as such, without any reason to do so.

Because it proves that people have a vested interest in saving Danex. We didn't trust Danex that much. And that second line is referring to the mis-X of Danex this cycle, id est the elims are framing Danex so that we will X Danex this cycle. At least, that's my interpretation. 

22 minutes ago, Breaker said:

I'd like to formally announce the candidacy of "Shrek" as a replacement word for "lynch." I've been using it that way, mostly as a joke, but, now, I have discovered that it annoys Gears, who hasn't seen the movie, so I think we should all use it. Thus, the discussion now surrounds a hypothetical "mis-Shrekking" of Lotus.

No. No, Kai. Bad Kai. If you continue on your course of action. Roko may just have to leave Kanaira to die. I'm sorry, but it must be done. Your sins can never be cleansed. Don't use references for things I haven't consumed yet. 

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

that does assume that Lotus is a mishrek, but...

Illwei, Weill, Weighted Illness, Coming of the Second Plague, Perpetual Bane of My Existence, don't give merit to Kai's games. 

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1 minute ago, Gears said:

Illwei, Weill, Weighted Illness, Coming of the Second Plague, Perpetual Bane of My Existence, don't give merit to Kai's games. 

Hey hey hey don't diss my discount pocketing techniques. they work!

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1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Sure sureee :P.

What's your current read on Archer? :P.

Their post seems very well thought-out and villageryish, though as you said effort doesn't equal good all the time. The fact he didn't really be there C1 is a bit odd, but I think I'd put him at slight village.

1 hour ago, James Brafin said:

Well, I was going to start parsing but I stopped here.
Why are we all of a sudden assuming Lotus was a mislynch? They did not flip and show alignment; they can 100% still be an Elim. There's no reason to assume Elim was trying to make you look like you were sus for a mislynch.

...That is a good point. 

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Er... I have a question for the people who are debating whether Dannex was framed. Why would the elims try to frame him for this cycle's exe when he was already a target for the exe last cycle? Like, why would they remove him from harm's way one cycle if their overall intent was for him to be exed? The elims almost certainly didn't know that the village vote-manipper was going to remove a vote from Dannex, so if they wanted Dannex to be exed they would have just left well enough alone. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, amirite? I actually can't believe I didn't notice this earlier because this is the kind of thing I usually look for with vote-manips. Assuming that one of the vote-manips on Dannex was elim (which might not be the case but probably is), that means Dannex is elim too, right? 

Edited by Quinn0928
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4 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Er... I have a question for the people who are debating whether Dannex was framed. Why would the elims try to frame him for this cycle's exe when he was already a target for the exe last cycle? Like, why would they remove him from harm's way one cycle if their overall intent was for him to be exed? The elims almost certainly didn't know that the village vote-manipper was going to remove a vote from Dannex, so if they wanted Dannex to be exed they would have just left well enough alone. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, amirite? I actually can't believe I didn't notice this earlier because this is the kind of thing I usually look for with vote-manips. Assuming that one of the vote-manips on Dannex was elim (which might not be the case but probably is), that means Dannex is elim too, right? 

Oh, I suspect Danex. I was simply disputing Jam's interpretation of that response. I have stated that if any vote manipers are elims, then Danex is almost certainly an elim. However, Jam seemed to see a slip where I found none, and I wanted to ensure that I was interpreting correctly.

On that matter, Danex. I've suspected them for a while now, and enough discussion has happened that I feel reasonably certain about it. 

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I forgot to follow the thread I’m an actual genius.

Condensation, Dannex. The points about the misexe slip possibility and vote manip are good enough to make me doubt my gut on this one.

Edit:

Wait no I've confused myself

32 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Why would the elims try to frame him for this cycle's exe when he was already a target for the exe last cycle?

That's why they'd frame him. So that we'd see the manip and vote him out. Dannex

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Oh c’mon not this again.

For the whole “omg he slipped he said he was framed” or whatever:

I’ve been guessing that we have 2 Greys since the very beginning. Since before the game even started. I’ve always assumed that one was vil and one was Elim. This was my exact thought process:

Oh, there are 2 vote removes on me. Huh. Wonder where they came from.

Well, some people were defending me, so if one of them was a grey, that makes sense.

but what about the other one? 

well, I doubt both Greys are village, so the other must be an Elim. 

but why would an Elim vote manip me if I was about to die?

Well, I guess they wanted to make me look like an Elim so they could have an easy mishang this cycle. 

Yeah, I guess that makes sense. 

So that’s what I said. I very much do not understand how that is any kind of ‘slip’ or alignment indicative at all. 

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3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Uhhh my point is we were already voting him out? If they wanted us to do that, all they had to do was sit back and watch, as far as they knew. 

Maybe the Elims weren’t on during rollover chaos, maybe the action was put in back when I had a few votes but not enough to die, maybe both Greys are just village, there are so many other possibilities to explain this.

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Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

Not Voting (5): Gears, Reading, Order, Burnt, Kings Way

First note is that Archer is still on a vanity wagon, and Quinn is...idk?? Gears was a later vote, but it's still her deciding to not engage with the main vote wagons, as there wasn't a real chance of a last minute swing to Gears.

Here I get really tinfoil-y: What if lotus was a WGG? think on it...or maybe not. at least, not too much :P I've been told that I can get a bit addicted to the tinfoil at times...

But in response to @Quinn0928 : D1 subjects aren't really looked at after D1 (see, Aman in MR46). I'm not saying it's likely, but it is still possible that, having a vote manip each turn, they chose to use it in the best way that would get more people killed. Lotus dies today, is village, and then the Village turns back on Danex for being saved.

Watching the whole thread pile back on Danex isn't a great feeling :P.

Kiiiinda just wanting to sheep james on whatever he comes up with but I figure that it would really be more productive if more than one person did stuff so i'll be back...eveeeentually. :P. probably the next time someone posts. but I can't promise it'll be anything productive then, just- I'll be back eventually with thoughts.

First thing is that Ash was the first one to mention the vote manip and possibility of a WGG.

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3 minutes ago, Breaker said:

We might want to focus our effort on finding out if the Greys are Village. It would change the tie policy a little bit. 

I'm not sure if it would. I mean, if it was two Black Ajah greys, that could be either an attempt to get a mis-x or it could be that they were trying to save Dannex. If one is elim, one village, that doesn't tell us anything either, because its quite possible one village-grey decided to help Dannex out while a elim was also trying to get them lynched. If it were two village greys, then I guess we could probably think that Dannex is most likely village.

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12 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Maybe the Elims weren’t on during rollover chaos, maybe the action was put in back when I had a few votes but not enough to die, maybe both Greys are just village, there are so many other possibilities to explain this.

Before the rollover chaos you were already the primary target, Dannex. Also, the whole "framing" idea only works if it's a situation where elim!you looked like you needed saving, and could be saved. Removing a vote from you when you had a few votes but not enough to die doesn't really... make sense unless you're elim and your elim teammate wanted to make sure you weren't voted off in the worst case. 

It is possible that both Grays are village, I suppose--or that there are more than two Grays. But at that point we start to enter into the territory of the tinfoil, and I'm not really convinced, since the elims typically have at least one vote-manip and the broad agreement so far is that that's the case here. Also, you were a pretty strong supporter of that idea of the distribution yourself, iirc--even after the vote-manips showed up. So I find the sudden shift in opinion a bit odd.

Edit:

Quote

I'm not sure if it would. I mean, if it was two Black Ajah greys, that could be either an attempt to get a mis-x or it could be that they were trying to save Dannex. If one is elim, one village, that doesn't tell us anything either, because its quite possible one village-grey decided to help Dannex out while a elim was also trying to get them lynched. If it were two village greys, then I guess we could probably think that Dannex is most likely village.

@Lotus There are... a lot of flaws with that logic. If it was two Black Ajah Greys, which seems unlikely, then they probably wouldn't both take votes off of Dannex. One of them would, and the other would either change a null vote to voting you (or whoever was tied with Dannex) or just not use the ability at all. Both removing is just... kind of really, blaringly obvious : P 

If, as we've been assuming, one is elim and one is village, that still tells us quite a bit because neither one would have been aware of the actions of the other. The fact that a villager would want to save Dannex isn't super surprising, since there were some people who argued against exeing him. What's interesting is that an elim removed a vote from Dannex while unaware that someone else was doing the same. Elims don't just randomly toss out vote-manips--they know everyone's alignment, so if an elim removed a vote from Dannex then they did it for a reason.

If the two Grays were village, that tells us exactly nothing about Dannex. The only thing it tells us is that there were two villagers with both the will and the means to try to save Dannex, which could be equally true of elim!Dannex and village!Dannex.

Quote

First note is that Archer is still on a vanity wagon, and Quinn is...idk?? Gears was a later vote, but it's still her deciding to not engage with the main vote wagons, as there wasn't a real chance of a last minute swing to Gears.

@Illwei Correct, that's exactly what I was doing. Earlier in that post I state the reasons for which I didn't think the two current candidates, Connie and Dannex, were elim (because back then, Dannex was tied or nearly tied with Connie). The Lotus train emerged rather suddenly towards the end of the cycle--I don't think I was actually on when the majority of the votes on her were placed because I was in a class for the last 45 minutes of C1. And honestly, even if I had been on I don't think I'd have voted for either of them--the votes at the last minute were so chaotic that in trying to break a tie I could easily have ended up causing one instead. 

Now, I have more to base my opinion of Dannex on than just what I've seen of him in past games, which is fine for D1 but after that it's best to just focus on the game at hand, as I believe a couple of people already said.

Edited by Quinn0928
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1 minute ago, Lotus said:

If it were two village greys, then I guess we could probably think that Dannex is most likely village.

I mean, all that would mean is that 2 people think I’m village. Not really proof. 
 

Either way, I don’t think this one vote removal is enough for a vote this cycle, there are so many possibilities where it means nothing, and only one where it means I’m Elim.

It seems like most people believe that I’m Brown, but they think that doesn’t exclude me from being Elim. I’d say it does, Brown in the hands of an Elim would be so OP. They would know exactly who to kill to have the maximum impact. Especially when you consider that the current game-making meta is leaning towards Village Benefitting rulesets, I very much doubt that TJ would give an Elim a Brown. (Unless TJ is a huge troll, which is a possibility.)

6 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

So I find the sudden shift in opinion a bit odd.

I do still think there is one vil and one Elim, I was just saying that’s it’s a possibility. 

And finally, there’s one big flaw in your reasoning, I was the one that pointed out that my second vote removal could be from an Elim. Why would I do that if I was an Elim myself???

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Guest Breaker

Tbh I'm more sus of Dannex this cycle than I was during the last, but still not enough to cast a vote yet. Unless Gears asks. 

13 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I'm not sure if it would. I mean, if it was two Black Ajah greys, that could be either an attempt to get a mis-x or it could be that they were trying to save Dannex. If one is elim, one village, that doesn't tell us anything either, because its quite possible one village-grey decided to help Dannex out while a elim was also trying to get them lynched. If it were two village greys, then I guess we could probably think that Dannex is most likely village.

I was about to say, hoping to get something workable as a strategy, that, if Dannex were to die and be seen as Village, then the two Greys would likely be Village. Then I remembered that's a misunderstanding of statistical reasoning. Darn it, Bayes.

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15 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

If the two Grays were village, that tells us exactly nothing about Dannex. The only thing it tells us is that there were two villagers with both the will and the means to try to save Dannex, which could be equally true of elim!Dannex and village!Dannex.

I believe lotus' point was that no matter the alignment of the greys, they wouldn't reflect on Danex's alignment.

You still haven't responded to the part that I tagged you in, Quinn :P.

EDIT:

4 minutes ago, Dannex said:

And finally, there’s one big flaw in your reasoning, I was the one that pointed out that my second vote removal could be from an Elim. Why would I do that if I was an Elim myself???

You were also the person who said they did it to cast suspicion on you. Trying to tell us that you're the innocent one and it was to frame you, not save you.

Honestly something I also haven't seen a lot is vote manip to frame someone. idk, just a thought. someone should start doing that again :P.

Edited by Illwei
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Guest Breaker

I have no read on Lotus. Are we still considering Shrekking Lotus over gut? Shrek would approve, so I'm OK with that, but it's not persuasive to me. I suppose it's irrelevant if it's a Vigilante, though. I *did* ask for a target for Liranil.

Oooohhhh, Loooootuuuuuussssss! It's time for you to offer a better use of our Green Ajah! Your literal life may depend upon it!

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1 minute ago, Breaker said:

I have no read on Lotus. Are we still considering Shrekking Lotus over gut? Shrek would approve, so I'm OK with that, but it's not persuasive to me. I suppose it's irrelevant if it's a Vigilante, though. I *did* ask for a target for Liranil.

For me it's mostly because they should have died. I just- it's not a great plan, but I don't have a great plan right now :P.

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Just now, Illwei said:

For me it's mostly because they should have died. I just- it's not a great plan, but I don't have a great plan right now :P.

I guess I'd kinda feel the same if I suss'd them last time, esp if I didn't know Warders had two lives against any death type. It *feels* like they got vote-manip'd out of death, even if that's not what happened. Plus, it's a target. And we need one. If we sit here, we die slowly. 

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