Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon

[Quintessential]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

...yes, but in every one of those situations...it's still a WGG. Id argue that unless we get a redflip or more info, that isn't a useful path to walk down. but I won't argue since I theorize about useless things all the time. :P.

Yes, I know. I was specifically considering the case in which it was, and then looking at the different possibilities for what that would mean about Connie--since Matrim seemed to assume that Connie must have a Warder if it's a WGG.

I... wasn't gonna call WGGs rare in my post since I haven't played many forum-mafia games and forum-mafia is the only mafia I've played whether they were mechanically possible (edit: also they got brought up disproportionately often in the games I've played oof). But yeah, I'll take you're word for it and add on to what I said that WGGs are not common occurrences! and therefore we shouldn't be voting off Connie just-in-case-it-was-a-WGG. We need more of a reason than that. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Quinn0928

[---]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

I'll take you're word for it

Whoa whoa whoa whoa don't do that! that's a terrible idea!!!!

I just know that in the games I've been in where WGGs were possible, the Elims haven't wasted a kill on that. I especially don't see them wearing down one of their warders.

[Archer]

GM question: can the elims attack one of their own?

Dannex

As Brick slipped into the back of the meeting, he bemoaned the wasted spittle. The assembled individuals, some who he recognized, others who he did not, seemed to be discussing… Shrek? He didn’t know that name, but the evidence pointed to one of their own as being the killer, not some outsider.

“You all need some rocks,” the big man announced to no one in particular. He pulled some pebbles from his pouch and began handing them out somewhat aggressively. “Do not chew them. They must be ground. Twenty-thousand bites at least. These will help you focus on the matter at hand. Need I remind you that two people are dead?”

There was a muffled shout from the far side of the room.

“Make that three.”

***

Housekeeping:

-For the record, I prefer an over-active thread to a dead one, but be careful of making high barriers to participation. Thanks to those who have posted TL;DRs. And to TJ for the regular vote counts. Personal request, if you switch votes a lot, can you please remember to green out your previous ones, or at least indicate it’s a switch? It makes it easier to follow the thread.

Analysis:

-Striker completely ignored my poke vote, which tells me nothing.  

-Gears and Breaker obviously coordinated their role-claims. This could have been done in a two-person Warder-Ajah PM (as they implied), in a three person PM (where there is an extra Warder present, probably whom Breaker suspects of being an elim, but who provides extra protection), or in the elim doc. This is a QF, so otherwise absurd gambits can work, but it risks outing two elims if either of them are killed, so I find that unlikely. They may have switched roles, with Gears being the true Blue and Breaker the true Warder, but that is easily disprovable and would make them suspicious. Therefore, I find it most likely that they are both telling the truth about their roles. One of them may be an elim because they have the confidence to share information that will likely get them targeted, but I find it more likely that they are fishing for Yellow protection and hoping to avoid a Green kill while providing useful information to the village. It’s a bold scheme, which doesn’t read as elimy to me. However, Gears has said it’s a ‘chaotic’ idea, so my best guess is they’re lying about the colour of Ajah Breaker is. Breaker has always been a vote-changer, but it remains a suspicious habit to do it so often.

-“Warders don't start out knowing what kind of Ajah their partner is.” -Devotary of Spontaneity

This incorrect statement is likely a slip, revealing that they are not a Warder or Ajah. If you’d like a vanilla to out themselves, try asking Devotary to. They may also have a power role but not be paired. That seems like the kind of position a Yellow would be put in, or perhaps an elim.  

-“Honestly fluff posting in thread is a pet peeve of mine.” -Illwei

This is not reflective of their behaviour, in my opinion. If I’m being cynical, it could be read as an attempt to seem like a responsible towny. Otherwise, perhaps we disagree on our definitions of ‘fluff’. (Someone pull out Straw’s vote counter and see how many times everyone posted that round. Then make a kangaroo chart out of it while you’re at it.)

-“Quick thoughts; Quinn and Illwei seem to be pretty helpful and village-y, though that’s a very mild village because it is c1 after all. Don’t really like how danex has been acting but I’m also unsure about the Danex vote, it kinda feels... off maybe, idk.” -Lotus

This statement struck me as off because it excluded Matrim and James, who had also been posting similar content. I’d like to know why they trusted Quinn and Illwei and not the other two.

-Danex, did you type your big defence post on mobile? If so, wow. I considered asking a vanilla to come forward too, early in the game, but decided that we could probably assume there were a few without doing that. Dannex had the same thought process as me, which I respect. I find their request NAI.  

According to claims, Liranil is not Dannex’s Warder, nor vice versa. Dannex has no Warder or PM. Dannex is a Brown Ajah. I did notice when they said: “Well I hope the village has another Brown then.” However, I read it differently than James.

-“He slipped as Town!Brown, after an earlier softclaim. Specifically in using "another." (Edit: See my post #302 to see his softclaim. Will get a link shortly, got to go find it. Should be right at the top of page 13 tho)/ Dannex has been crumbig/softclaiming Brown for a while now, and sort of implying that he has outside information. There's IMO a lot of evidence to support his claim/slip whatever you want to call it. Also, this is so causally dropped it both seems more genuine and less considered, which makes me lean slip, not claim.” -James

James was following the thread closely, so I suspected they were excited to get any information from their efforts. It is an understandable reaction. However, I read Dannex’s post as having a more frustrated tone: frustrated to be on the chopping block, and frustrated that they had to reveal as much about their role as they did. I believe they knew exactly what they were posting.

A note on James’ early reads, I suspect the Elim team would have informed him that he could lie low for a bit and avoid being exed. He also seems to be posting independently, not working as part of a team, which would curtail his posts as he works to maintain a group strategy. For these reasons, they seem villagey, if more aggressive than many people are used to. I don’t mind their approach.

-Under pressure, Liranil claimed green. It is widely agreed that there is only one of it. They can prove it by naming their kill in advance or by not having anyone come forward to dispute it. Given its value to the village, James coming out hard against Liranil struck me as odd.

“Okay, the more Liranil posts the more I don't buy this. [red]Liranil. I know it's not popular but I'm pretty convinced this is a fakeclaim to live one more day.” -James

Perhaps it’s culture shock, but this seemed like a bad vote for the village. Props to Illwei for disagreeing with his vote about 4 posts later.

-James may be forgiven, but Dannex then voted Liranil too.

“Ok, I’m back to [red]Liranil. This might seem super suspicious and wishy-washy, but I have reasons. Last time I was only voting for Liranil out of self-preservation. I’ve actually gone over their posts since then, and am genuinely suspicious of them. Their Green Ajah claim is just too convenient, what are the odds we hang the only green in the game on D1?” -Dannex

The worst that could happen is elim!Liranil fake claims to avoid an exing. They use their Warder to shield them from the next exing, then we get them on D3. During that time they would be confirmed elim and we could read from that. Putting them on the chopping block seemed like a waste of a village exe when we could have waited until next time to confirm it. Danex scanning Liranil, who is the easiest role to elsewise prove, was also a bad decision. It would have been better to scan someone less likely to die, and less easily proven.

Reminder, Brown Ajah is not a confirmed village role. Given the events of the last round, I believe it is actually an elim role, with the other three scanners being in the hands of the village. An elim team of Grey Ajah, Warder, Brown Ajah, Vanilla, Vanilla makes sense to me. Maybe with a Red Ajah instead of one of the Vanillas. Dannex could well have scanned someone else and be bluffing about Liranil. I do however buy their story that they are unwardered. Given their power, that makes sense. I would think that Liranil would be unwardered too, so they really should be protected often by the Yellows. The elims will likely target them at the end of D3.  

-Quinn posted a reads list that relied heavily on their experiences with players in previous games. It was cohesive, and a good post for D1, assuming they don’t base their speculation in later days solely on that angle. That said, I disagree with their suspicion of Gears.

-“Now that people are abandoning the [green]Lotus exe, I will switch to [red]Liranil because I'm more suspicious of Liranil than of Danex, plus I think that the information from Danex (if they are really a Brown Ajah) is more helpful for finding elims than the kills from Liranil (If they are really a Green Ajah).” – Flying Books

I don’t like this post at all. It implies their vote placement is sheepy, targets the person claiming the confirmed village role when no one had objected to the claim, and it assumes Brown is a village role.

-“Here's the thing. I'm not a good player. I can't seem to come up with my own opinions, and typically I have to force myself to come up with people I'm suspicious of. Typically that means I follow other people who are better at reading intentions then me. That means it typically seems like I'm bussing, but I'm genuinely trying.” -Shard of Reading

I was going to flag this as suspicious, but now that they’ve flipped village, I’ll leave it at a sad emoji:

-Also on my radar is the fact that Burnt didn’t contribute much in the way of suspicions in any of their posts. My rule of thumb though is there is always at least one active elim, and they’re the easiest to catch, so I’m focussing on them for now.

D2 Results Speculation 

-I agree to there likely being one village and one elim Grey Ajah, but it would have been funny if TJ made them both village. 

-As always, allowing the village to waste an exe is suspicious. Lotus has said they didn’t realize Warder would protect them against exing, so I’ll let it slide this time.

-Condensation makes sense as a night kill, since they weren’t super active or super passive. They were in that nice sweet spot for elims. Waiting on TJ to confirm if being night attacked is AI.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Archer
The Shard messed with my formatting a bit

[Quintessential]

Just now, Illwei said:

Whoa whoa whoa whoa don't do that! that's a terrible idea!!!!

I just know that in the games I've been in where WGGs were possible, the Elims haven't wasted a kill on that. I especially don't see them wearing down one of their warders.

Okay, okay XD "according to what Illwei has said and what I've seen in my own games, I think WGGs in general are not a common occurrence." Happy now?

[|TJ|]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

GM question: can the elims attack one of their own?

Yes.

[Quintessential]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

They use their Warder to shield them from the next exing, then we get them on D3.

Warders have two lives, thus they are passively protected from the exe, but their ability does not protect their Ajah from the exe. 

Edit: Apart from that, I'm reading Archer's post as village. A single long analysis post does not a villager make, but Archer has definitely put a lot of effort into this one and he makes some very good points. Also, yeah, I'm... somewhat doubting my suspicion of Gears in retrospect--it still seems uncharacteristic of him, but tbh it seems uncharacteristic of elim!Gears to claim C1 without being pressured by the exe, not just village!Gears, which I wasn't really considering when I voted him. That being said, I'm now somewhat back to the drawing board since my read of Matrim, while not helped by his insistence on Connie being a WGG, was based on nothing but gut to begin with, so I'm not comfortable voting him. And everyone else who has posted enough for me to have a read on them, I read as village.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Quinn0928

[---]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

(Someone pull out Straw’s vote counter and see how many times everyone posted that round. Then make a kangaroo chart out of it while you’re at it.)

:eyes:

*couch* AAAAaaaaanyways

In response to the previous comment: ;-;. I like fluffposting. I hate reading through it :P. Just came off of a 700 page game, thought this would be a nice...refreshing...QF...xD

Coolio post from Archer. Not sure how to read Lotus' "not knowing", if you know what I mean. On the other hand I'm not so sure if people would have just let go if Lotus claimed Warder. I know that if someone else claims Warder I'm not going to want to switch my vote. it's an easy enough excuse for an Elim to use.

I'm so torn between looking over past cycles and trying to keep up with the thread ;-; Ever time it comes to a stop I leave and it starts back up again :P.

[Mat]

21 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

therefore we shouldn't be voting off Connie just-in-case-it-was-a-WGG. We need more of a reason than that. 

My other reason is that I’ve suspected Connie since early C1 anyway :P. But I think you already said that.

People are insisting Connie as an elim kill target makes sense. Maybe it’s my specific situation, but I still don’t see it.

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Maybe it’s my specific situation

As an Elim? O.o

[Guest Breaker]

Just now, Illwei said:

As an Elim? O.o

*audible gasp*

[---]

17 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

A single long analysis post does not a villager make, but Archer has definitely put a lot of effort into this one and he makes some very good points.

Reminder that Effort != VIllage either

EDIT:

@Archer, what's your read on Matrim? :P.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

As an Elim? O.o

As Matrim’s Dice  I mean when I was active, the specific posts I skimmed, etc.

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As Matrim’s Dice  I mean when I was active, the specific posts I skimmed, etc.

Sure sureee :P.

What's your current read on Archer? :P.

[James Brafin]

2 hours ago, Dannex said:

Geez that was stressful. It seems like things worked out pretty ok. Lotus didn’t even die. Reading died, and he was a yellow, so that’s not great, but all things considered that could have been a lot worse. Connie even survived the Elim kill. So she’s a Sedai with a warder. Or a warder herself I guess.

Liranil is in-fact a Green Ajah. I wasn’t actually expecting that tbh. This might not confirm that I’m brown, since one could use the fact that reading died as proof that Liranil is green, so let’s do this. Who here is most suspicious of me, and hasn’t done anything like a Roleclaim. I’ll scan you this cycle if y’all want more proof.

I think the two vote removes on me were the only two vote manips we have. I’d guess one was from someone who thinks I’m village, and the other was from an Elim trying to make me look sus for a mislynch.

Well, I was going to start parsing but I stopped here.
Why are we all of a sudden assuming Lotus was a mislynch? They did not flip and show alignment; they can 100% still be an Elim. There's no reason to assume Elim was trying to make you look like you were sus for a mislynch.

[Guest Breaker]

10 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Well, I was going to start parsing but I stopped here.
Why are we all of a sudden assuming Lotus was a mislynch? They did not flip and show alignment; they can 100% still be an Elim. There's no reason to assume Elim was trying to make you look like you were sus for a mislynch.

Have to agree. Lotus is a true unknown so far. Gears and I have been treating them as the protest vote of sorts, for people who wanted to save Liranil and Dannex, but that doesn't rule out Lotus being an eliminator. That said, nothing but a pair of gut reads was incriminating towards them, initially. Hence my initial feeling that the round was largely a wash, as far as suspects, since I had ruled out Dannex and Liranil, and we still have basically nothing on Lotus. Gears, however, is more persuaded by Archer than by our initial reasoning, and is considering backing the Dannex execution option again. Hopefully he doesn't mind my mentioning that publicly so soon. Admittedly, we both appreciate having people around doing core analysis, because we're bad at reads. 

[James Brafin]

Just now, Breaker said:

Have to agree. Lotus is a true unknown so far. Gears and I have been treating them as the protest vote of sorts, for people who wanted to save Liranil and Dannex, but that doesn't rule out Lotus being an eliminator. That said, nothing but a pair of gut reads was incriminating towards them, initially. Hence my initial feeling that the round was largely a wash, as far as suspects, since I had ruled out Dannex and Liranil, and we still have basically nothing on Lotus. Gears, however, is more persuaded by Archer than by our initial reasoning, and is considering backing the Dannex execution option again. Hopefully he doesn't mind my mentioning that publicly so soon. Admittedly, we both appreciate having people around doing core analysis, because we're bad at reads. 

You miss the point, Breaker. he has no reason to assume this is a mislynch unless he knows it's a mislynch.
I.E. I think Dannex just Elim-slipped

[---]

Quote

Lotus didn’t even die

2 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

You miss the point, Breaker. he has no reason to assume this is a mislynch unless he knows it's a mislynch.

Is this what you're looking at? hm.

 

[Guest Breaker]

Poor Dannex is getting ganged up on fast twice in a row. 

[James Brafin]

Yes Sir/Ma'am/Nonbinary fam, right on the money.

[Gears]

27 minutes ago, Archer said:

However, Gears has said it’s a ‘chaotic’ idea, so my best guess is they’re lying about the colour of Ajah Breaker is. Breaker has always been a vote-changer, but it remains a suspicious habit to do it so often.

No, we're telling the truth. That's our modus operandi this game. And honestly, accusing an Aes Sedai and her Warder of lying of all things? Scandalous. [This is sarcasm/joking, though we are telling the truth]

37 minutes ago, Archer said:

An elim team of Grey Ajah, Warder, Brown Ajah, Vanilla, Vanilla makes sense to me.

My C1 guess with Kai [Breaker] was Red, White, 2 Warders with a Grey as a possible 5th. If Danex is elim!Brown, then there has to be a Grey, but then maybe not the White. Having 4 with strong roles seems reasonable, especially with 2 Warders. We suspected all outwardly bound Warders and 1 outwardly bound Aes Sedai [So V/E Warder bond].

43 minutes ago, Archer said:

“Ok, I’m back to [red]Liranil. This might seem super suspicious and wishy-washy, but I have reasons. Last time I was only voting for Liranil out of self-preservation. I’ve actually gone over their posts since then, and am genuinely suspicious of them. Their Green Ajah claim is just too convenient, what are the odds we hang the only green in the game on D1?” -Dannex

I agree with you on many points [Devotary slip, Lotus's reads, Jam's misinterpretations], but especially this one. As I pointed out last cycle, Danex is either engaging in a severe logical fallacy or trying to find an excuse to save their own skin by capitalising on a mal-adjusted person's tunnels. While I will hold off from voting so we can incentivise discussion, I do note Danex as a reasonable possibility. Your lovely analysis has somewhat swayed me [and by extension, Kai [Breaker]] into remembering how frail our trust of Danex is. 

As a matter of fact, Kai [Breaker] wanted to "shrek" you [kill you, I don't understand their usage of the word, but oh well] for suspecting Danex, and then I reminded them that we didn't really believe in vil!Danex anyways and it was simply a moderately tolerable assumption. Kai was very much in favour of vil!Liranil and vil!Danex, but I think we should cut Danex from the circle of trust. I think they've come around, since they told me to tell you about this interaction. 

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

I... don't know how likely Connie being WGG is, though.

The reason that Connie!WGG seems so likely is because Condensation was a terrible kill option. They had taken some flak from Matrim, a generally trusted individual, and there are other targets that are generally trusted, like Quinn, or Jam [though they probably wouldn't have attacked a newbie], or Matrim. 

2 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

You miss the point, Breaker. he has no reason to assume this is a mislynch unless he knows it's a mislynch.
I.E. I think Dannex just Elim-slipped

Danex didn't assume it was a mis-X [or, I'd assume so, considering that they never mentioned that term in relation to Lotus, merely themself [also, we're trying to transition away from using the word "lynch" and all of its derivative forms due to the racial connotations. The most common alt is execution thus far, or "exe", or "X"]. Perhaps they still think it privately. ] They assumed there was elim vote manip on themself to frame them and make them look suspicious. Sidenote: I do concur that Lot is not off the table. 

[James Brafin]

Yes, but ask yourself, Gears: Why would it look suspicious, if we don't actually know what Lotus' alignment is? It can't cause suspicion for a mis-X unless Dannex is indeed town.

I also disagree. He says very clearly, "The other was from an Elim trying to make me look sus for a mis-X." He does indeed assume that this is as such, without any reason to do so.

[Guest Breaker]

I'd like to formally announce the candidacy of "Shrek" as a replacement word for "lynch." I've been using it that way, mostly as a joke, but, now, I have discovered that it annoys Gears, who hasn't seen the movie, so I think we should all use it. Thus, the discussion now surrounds a hypothetical "mis-Shrekking" of Lotus.

[---]

21 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Yes Sir/Ma'am/Nonbinary fam, right on the money.

You need some sorta last word there to make it a nice rhyme.

yessir. maam. nonbinary fam. you do be right on the money, clam.
...
Okay maybe not clam, but, ya know?

Hmmmmmm
that does assume that Lotus is a mishrek, but...
Am I really still defending Danex? yeah.
Hm. and Danex was voting on Lotus as well :/

Edited January 15, 2021 by Illwei
updated terminology :P

[Guest Breaker]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

that does assume that Lotus is a mishrek, but...
 

There is nothing that would make me vote for you this round, treasured Illwei. Yours is a presence I treasure. 

[Quintessential]

8 minutes ago, Breaker said:

There is nothing that would make me vote for you this round, treasured Illwei. Yours is a presence I treasure. 

That would be the implication of referring to her as "treasured Illwei", yeah XD