Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon

[---]

2 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Did... did we all just miss the part where Dannex is Brown? Number 2 is not possible, and number 1 can also be explained by that.

I was under the assumption that Number two meant Liranil + Unknown :P.

[James Brafin]

Just now, Condensation said:

But... this is only Cycle Two. I don't know how the Brown Ajah role works, but I'd assume that they get their answer at the end of the cycle, not in the middle of it.

Is it just weird?

Dannex used his power in C1, which is something all roles can do.

[---]

@Archer Don't know what your schedules like, and there was a looooong first cycle, but do you have any thoughts?

EDIT:

Can we make a pact, to like, start fluffposting in...colors...or something? so when we read back over the thread you know you don't have to read that? :P. Idk if blue would be appliccable 24/7. huh.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Illwei

[Condensation]

I obviously need to both 1) reread some or all of C1, and 2) get some more sleep.

Sorry, my brain doesn't work right when I don't get enough sleep. Excuse me while I go do school, and I'll be back on tomorrow or tonight.

[Guest Breaker]

Now that I've had the time to sit down and read properly at my laptop, thank you to the two Grey Ajahs for keeping Dannex alive. I did not have the right information at the end to shift to Lotus and break the tie. Could've been ugly. 

[|TJ|]

Aight, I'mma head to bed. I don't believe there's been a vote as of now. Happy Hunting. 

[+Lotus]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Aight, I'mma head to bed. I don't believe there's been a vote as of now. Happy Hunting. 

Good night!

[Guest Breaker]

...is it just me, or do we have no leads? It seems all our targets revealed themselves good. 
 

im gonna try to go quiet for a while, wait to see what the experienced players think. Wake me when you’ve got a suspect!

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Breaker said:

...is it just me, or do we have no leads? It seems all our targets revealed themselves good. 

im gonna try to go quiet for a while, wait to see what the experienced players think. Wake me when you’ve got a suspect!

Well, yes and no. We technically have no confirmation that Lotus is good or bad, just that she's a Warder. We know nothing about Burnt, who many of us agreed seemed to be trying to fly under the radar. If we examine vote histories (which unfortunately I don't have the time to do) we might be able to figure something about about the two Gray Ajahs... and since it seems reasonable to accept that both Liranil and Dannex are village--or at least that they are who they say they are, because I wouldn't personally discount the idea of an elim Brown Ajah--we can use Dannex's scans to get more info about roles at least, which much help with mechanical solving in the future. But yeah, there aren't any super clear suspects. Unless @Ashbringer feels like nailing all the elims based solely on activity and who the elim kill was, like he did in MR47  

Edit: well, my reasons for suspecting Gears haven't... technically gone away, but I must admit that they seem much weaker in retrospect than when I wrote out that post. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Quinn0928

[Guest Breaker]

Paws off the Burnt Spaghetti. She is a sweet little PM spider who wouldn't bite us. 

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

But yeah, there aren't any super clear suspects. Unless @Ashbringer feels like nailing all the elims based solely on activity and who the elim kill was, like he did in MR47  

I’ll see what I can do. Connie’s an odd enough kill target that I think it’s worthwhile.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Ashbringer
Ses

[Guest Breaker]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

I’ll see what I can do. Connie’s an odd enough kill target that I think it’s worthwhile.

You're still my prophet, after I latched onto you in my game 1. 

[Quintessential]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’ll see what I can do. Connie’s an odd enough kill target that I think it’s worthwhile.

so basically you write out who you suspect and if the elims immediately shoot you to death then you're probably right, right? that's how that works?

[Ashbringer]

If someone's analysis-killed, generally they are very right or very wrong. So... I guess just continue to keep it in mind based on how accurate they are, because they would likely continue to be as accurate or innaccurate?

I've also been killed just completely at random before, so there's that.

[|TJ|]

Okay just before I go: 

30 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can we make a pact, to like, start fluffposting in...colors...or something? so when we read back over the thread you know you don't have to read that? :P. Idk if blue would be appliccable 24/7. huh.

Blue text is only used to let us only if you have problems playing the game and IRL stuff. So don't use that here. I wouldn't recommend using colors. Perhaps, italicise?

Also, there seems to be some confusion about whole Warder stuff. Warders can protect their Aes Sedai successfully once WITHOUT taking a hit. Only on the next successful block on their Aes Sedai, they'll take the hit. I hope that's clear? Protect successfully means protecting their Aes Sedai while someone is attacking them.

[StrikerEZ]

Well, that was...interesting. I'm on break right now (work is really slow today, so my manager said to come back in a couple hours), but I'm about to take a nap before I go back to work. Anyway, Connie is an...interesting kill choice for the elims, assuming that Liranil really did kill Reading. I also didn't even realize that the Warders' ability protects people from being exe'd, so I don't blame Lotus for not saying anything. In the future though, if someone's going to get exed and their a Warder, it might be helpful to let the thread know, so we can decide if we want to waste an exe on that.

[Mat]

My goodness, people. That was by far the longest QF cycle I've ever seen. It's actually longer than a lot of MR and LG ones as well.

1. Thanks for not killing me

2. Thanks for not killing Dannex or Liranil

3. Reading? I mean, sure... I bet there's probably one more Yellow, btw.

Condensation, I'm betting WGG. Tentatively. It'd mean an elim Warder and they could protect once without taking a hit. Mixing with the light Connie suspicion last cycle and I really don't see any other reason Connie would have been attacked.

Edit: @TJ Shade, if an Aes Sedai (or Warder) dies, is any information regarding their bond revealed?

Edited January 15, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Guest Breaker]

Legitimately, I see WGG and I read WMG, wild mass guessing. Which is confusing in context. But I'll go back in a bit and look at the Connie suspicion, see what I think. 

[|TJ|]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: @TJ Shade, if an Aes Sedai (or Warder) dies, is any information regarding their bond revealed?

No, it's similar to how Setagana's death was shown. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by TJ Shade

[---]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

No, it's similar to how Setagana's death was shown. 

How unfortunate.

I don't think we should kill Connie. In fact, no offence, I think that reasoning is probably the worst reasoning for a kill in this game right now :/ Of course maybe Ash will come up with something in his Night Kill Analysis, but- Eh. I would like to see what he sees though. I'm going to go through and see what I can find, but really? with all these protects flying around and you think that Connie was WGGd?

I have a theory but, it relies on a number of things that don't quite make sense :P. So I am just...gonna let other people talk for a bit before chiming in.

[Quintessential]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Condensation, I'm betting WGG. Tentatively. It'd mean an elim Warder and they could protect once without taking a hit. Mixing with the light Connie suspicion last cycle and I really don't see any other reason Connie would have been attacked.

I mean, there are a couple of other possibilities for how elim!Connie could have survived. If she is an elim Ajah and has a Warder, then regardless of whether that Warder is village she could have convinced them to protect her cycle 1, "just in case." Obviously she could also be a Warder herself, giving her a passive extra life that her teammates decided to exploit. Thirdly, and independently of the first two cases, there could be an elim Yellow Ajah, who protected Connie so that they could WGG her without her losing a life or her Warder losing the ability to protect without getting hit.

I... don't know how likely Connie being WGG is, though. Mostly because in both MR46 and LG72, the general village looked at people surviving an attack and at least brought up the possibility of a WGG--and in one of the games it was pursued extensively. Unless none of the elims have played recently, I'd think they'd probably realize that WGG is a risky scenario, especially with someone that some people already suspected. I don't really buy the logic that because the kill doesn't make sense it must have been a WGG--the elims may have been trying to confuse us, they may have had some extra knowledge of Connie that we don't (if she's bonded to an elim for example), they may have been planning to kill Lotus or Dannex and then had to switch last-minute because it looked like one of them would die to the exe. The attack isn't really AI as pertains to Connie, and I don't think we should treat it as a reason to vote her or trust her until we have more information about the situation.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Quinn0928

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

I... don't know how likely Connie being WGG is, though. Mostly because in both MR46 and LG72, the general village looked at people surviving an attack and at least brought up the possibility of a WGG--and in once of the games it was pursued extensively. Unless none of the elims have played recently, I'd think they'd probably realize that WGG is a risky scenario, especially with someone that some people already suspected. I don't really buy the logic that because the kill doesn't make sense it must have been a WGG--the elims may have been trying to confuse us, they may have had some extra knowledge of Connie that we don't (if she's bonded to an elim for example), they may have been planning to kill Lotus or Dannex and then had to switch last-minute because it looked like one of them would die to the exe. The attack isn't really AI as pertains to Connie, and I don't think we should treat it as a reason to vote her or trust her until we have more information about the situation.

I labeled my vote as tentative for a reason, after all. Though that's kinda tinfoily for my liking. 

[Quintessential]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I labeled my vote as tentative for a reason, after all. Though that's kinda tinfoily for my liking. 

Which part? If you mean the-reasons-that-the-elims-killed-Connie, those were meant as examples, not "these are the only things that could have happened". And... I wouldn't exactly call WGG not tinfoily  that was kinda my point

[---]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

I mean, there are a couple of other possibilities for how elim!Connie could have survived.

...yes, but in every one of those situations...it's still a WGG. Id argue that unless we get a redflip or more info, that isn't a useful path to walk down. but I won't argue since I theorize about useless things all the time. :P.

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

I... don't know how likely Connie being WGG is, though. Mostly because in both MR46 and LG72, the general village looked at people surviving an attack and at least brought up the possibility of a WGG--and in once of the games it was pursued extensively. Unless none of the elims have played recently, I'd think they'd probably realize that WGG is a risky scenario, especially with someone that some people already suspected. I don't really buy the logic that because the kill doesn't make sense it must have been a WGG--the elims may have been trying to confuse us, they may have had some extra knowledge of Connie that we don't (if she's bonded to an elim for example), they may have been planning to kill Lotus or Dannex and then had to switch last-minute because it looked like one of them would die to the exe. The attack isn't really AI as pertains to Connie, and I don't think we should treat it as a reason to vote her or trust her until we have more information about the situation.

So, I'm going to say again: WGGs are...kiiiinda rare. They're ofc more able to try that in this game, but in my experience the people bringing up the possibility of it being a WGG have been the Elims who try to discredit the attacked by doing so.

I agree that we should for now treat the attack as NAI, but not a reason at all to kill connie?

[Guest Breaker]

I would like a suspect, please. I hunger.