Anniversary Game 7/Anonymous Game 9: From Embers, A Flame

[Amethyst Scorpion]

ɪ'ᴍ ꜱᴀᴛɪꜱꜰɪᴇᴅ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴛʜᴇ ʀᴇᴀꜱᴏɴɪɴɢ ꜰᴏʀ ᴀ ᴠᴏᴛᴇ ᴏɴ ʀʜɪɴᴏ.

[Quartz Zebra]

45 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

Can you Elaborate on...

All of this?

So you're voting Rhino, but you think that Azure also fits, but fits better? 

Can you also explain what you find suspicious of Axolotl? because I personally found their D1 play to be pretty townie. 
--
unprompted vote count:

Rhino (5): Violet Axolotl, Charcoal Hyena, Azure Mouse, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebre
Fuschia Ostrich (1): Opal Lion, 

I'm voting Rhino because Rhino is going to die. I was mostly pointing out that elim!Mouse is a possibility, since regardless of alignment, Mouse is helping their team with their actions.

I started paying attention to Axolotl because they voted on Croc, and I think at least one of the votes on Croc is elim. But I didn't make note of what I found off, so consider it just a gut read for now.

[Coral Swan]

That's a lot of votes for Rhino already. I will probably switch to a secondary vote in case Rhino gets Mercy'd assuming the margin for Rhino is sufficiently high. So far we have one vote on Ostrich.

Taupe Gecko (2): Sapphire Elephant, Violet Axolotl
Violet Axolotl (1): Azure Mouse
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Taupe Gecko
Chartreuse Penguin (1): Opal Lion
Charcoal Hyena (1): Saffron Iguana
Coral Swan(1): Oxblood Beagle
Sapphire Elephant(1): Quartz Zebra
Cream Tuatara(1): Azure Mouse

This is what the vote count looked like at the time Ostrich brought up Beagle. Since Gecko was on FotS at the time, this is a multi-way (some of these people may have been on FotS or Braize) tie for the lead. There was also someone who shifted a vote from Gecko to Beagle with a decent chance of that being elim-motivated. An elim Ostrich at this point would likely be more focused on getting rid of any village competition for Autonomy's identity than saving Gecko, though getting a solid side removal couldn't have hurt. The not wanting to vote thing is strange. Have we seen evidence of Autonomy favoring a side? They apparently voted for Albatross instead of Gecko last day turn, but there was no way that would affect the results.

[Opal Lion]

13 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

An elim Ostrich at this point would likely be more focused on getting rid of any village competition for Autonomy's identity than saving Gecko, though getting a solid side removal couldn't have hurt.

yeah I have no clue what this means here

[Coral Swan]

28 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

yeah I have no clue what this means here

Gecko wasn't really at risk at the time and there were plenty of other people with a vote, so if Ostrich is evil the point of going for Beagle is more likely to have been about getting rid of villagers who might be able to figure out who Autonomy was so as to avoid Autonomy siding with the village than saving Gecko.

[Violet Axolotl]

23 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Gecko wasn't really at risk at the time and there were plenty of other people with a vote, so if Ostrich is evil the point of going for Beagle is more likely to have been about getting rid of villagers who might be able to figure out who Autonomy was so as to avoid Autonomy siding with the village than saving Gecko.

Didn't Beagle also say they had a 'powerful role'? That might have been more motivation for OC!Ostrich to create that counter wagon, though I don't recall the timing exactly.

And I've always disliked trains that pick up speed quickly... Someone could have at least said something else. 

[Coral Swan]

22 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Didn't Beagle also say they had a 'powerful role'? That might have been more motivation for OC!Ostrich to create that counter wagon, though I don't recall the timing exactly.

And I've always disliked trains that pick up speed quickly... Someone could have at least said something else. 

Taupe Gecko (5): Violet Axolotl, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana, Charcoal Hyena, Coral Swan
Oxblood Beagle (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Azure Mouse, Taupe Gecko, Plum Rhinoceros
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Opal Lion
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Sapphire Elephant (1): Quartz Zebra
Opal Lion (1): Melon Dingo

This was the vote count right before Beagle claimed a powerful role and nobody else voted for Beagle after this, with Beagle, Lion, and Dragonfly subsequently adding votes to Gecko. There weren't really any trains besides the Gecko/Beagle conflict except for the brief time Lion was accused of searching for Cultivation.

[Violet Axolotl]

1 minute ago, Coral Swan said:

This was the vote count right before Beagle claimed a powerful role and nobody else voted for Beagle after this, with Beagle, Lion, and Dragonfly subsequently adding votes to Gecko. There weren't really any trains besides the Gecko/Beagle conflict except for the brief time Lion was accused of searching for Cultivation.

Never mind, then. 

*cough*     *cough*

....

*cough*

NO

Edited January 10, 2021 by Violet Axolotl

[Saffron Iguana]

3 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

I started paying attention to Axolotl because they voted on Croc, and I think at least one of the votes on Croc is elim. But I didn't make note of what I found off, so consider it just a gut read for now.

It's possible an Elim voted Croc and didn't want to switch off, lest they look suspicious, but I find it more likely that they tried to save their teammate from a D1 vote and there are no elims who voted for Croc. 

That said, I believe I now know the alignment of everyone who voted for Kangaroo and Octopus, so D1 vote leads besides have been exhausted, unless anyone is inclined to believe Mint Heron was killed for voting Octopus and not for being Prudence. 

I'd still like to know why they chose Penguin as their night kill victim. If only I could invent a way to speak to the dead! Perhaps our resident Returned could provide some pointers on that...

We lack a good way of blocking Mercy's vote. They'll likely protect Rhino regardless of their alignment because they know we'll mob them tomorrow if we do not succeed today. I believe the best way forward is for us to narrow the field of who we need to roleblock or kill. I suggest that anyone who is a Shard tells a trusted villager which one they are. Then our investiture scanners analyze the remaining pool to find who is Mercy and Odium. The most trustworthy person in my estimation is Kangaroo, so I have told them my Shard's power. I suggest others do the same so they can validate you are not an OC. And if you're a non Shard, that would be valuable information too because it narrows down the suspect pool of who may be the OC Shards. Right now, based on what is known, that pool stands at nine people. But if people who are known as Shards but have yet to say which one offer up confirmation of their AC nature, we can narrow that down to six. 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Journal of Solemnheart, Day Seven Post-Illumination, Taldain

Well, this is what happens when I fail to follow the initial reports, I suppose.

As briefly mentioned, I have not been around as much as of late. I had been working on developing a post summary - I use the term "summary" lightly, as it is in my nature to... ramble given the chance. That proved... draining, along with some unrelated troubles. That being said, I do not have much to say in my own defense, as I have few abilities worth taking.

But I do have some... questions.

3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

Information from the Ruin of Shadesmar, pertaining to the Shadesmar Eight and Sir Brockett [OOC: Violet Axolotl] clearly stated that the only possible killers of Odium that night could have been Sir Brockett, himself, and the strange worldhopper known as Solemnheart [OOC: Plum Rhinoceros.] Sir Brockett had claimed to have been invested in by the Shard Preservation; moreover, a representative of Preservation had stood up to confirm this by accusing Sir Brockett of the attempted kill that night. Tenth himself had made no secret of the fact he was not a Shard, and another had provided him a scan on Solemmheart that had identified Solemnheart as also not being a Shard. [OOC: Investiture scan on Rhino shows Rhino is not a Shard either. I am not a Shard and thus must be included in the set of roleblocked non-Shards.]

First, they had to establish the pool of likely suspects. It was known that Odium's power could only be channeled through those who were not Shards. Furthermore, as there was no kill - not even anyone defending themselves that night - the killer had to have been stopped, somehow. Put those facts together and the only ones who could have made the kill were those who had been stopped, and who were not Shards. That left himself, Sir Brockett, and Solemnheart. [OOC: A brief rehash of the facts. There was no mention of a kill attempt and a protection in the write-up, meaning that neither Odium* nor the N2 investee were able to make the kill. This is consistent with several possibilities - a roleblock, them failing to put in the order, or in the case of Odium, there being no one in the Rosharan system C2. I won't dwell on Odium first - that for later. For now, I just want to note we've established that the only potential investees are myself, Axolotl, and Rhino, because the Odite faction kill is actually, in this game, an Investment power, meaning there must be a legitimate investee for there to be a kill.]

It is likely too much to ask who you say scanned me, but I will ask whether it was Chartreuse Penguin or a living player.

Also, would that mean that you know, for a fact, that all six other players in Shadesmar were Shards? Because that seems statistically unlikely even for it to exist, much less for you to know their identities.

6 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

Second, of all the likely suspects, Tenth found his gaze returning again and again to Solemnheart. First, it was apparent to him that those of Odium had in fact known that Aurora [OOC: Taupe Gecko] had been protected by the Shard Mercy and had striven both to offer a suitable alternative. Enoras [OOC: Coral Swan] had theorised that Odium's champions had attempted to get Endowment executed in order to prevent Mercy's intervention from being known; Tenth thought that likely, and suspected as well that Odium's champions had been attempting to ensure there was a second viable candidate, should Mercy's powers be necessary to save Aurora. And indeed, so it had turned out. Solemnheart had been the fourth on Endowment, after Aurora had voted to execute Endowment to save herself. [OOC: Pretty sure there needed to be Elims on the Beagle train - I think Swan is right that Mercy's stay of execution was their trump card. They tried to ensure there was another wagon beating the Gecko train but that even if it didn't, there would be a misexe thanks to Mercy. Looking at who's there - Ostrich, me, Rhino, and Gecko. Rhino piled on fourth onto the train, and last.]

He distrusted the immediacy with which Solemnheart had also jumped on Niru Drash's [OOC: Melon Dingo] suspicion of Remy, the then-claimed holder of the Shattered Shard, Prudence. It was reasonable to be wary of a sudden claimant who had also requested for Cultivation to personally contact them (how, Tenth wasn't sure), yet at the same time, Tenth wondered. For surely Prudence, in connecting all, would be a threat, though perhaps not the most significant one. This, of course, assumed that Remy was on the level, and yet Tenth supposed he was. He had kept his vote on Siena Ashao early on, after all. [OOC: Crocodile D1 vote - early voter, stayed on Crocodile.] Solemnheart, too, seemed to continue to paint doubt, even while asserting that Prudence was better off unShattered. [OOC: I'm not hellbent on this one but I do find it odd. Perhaps a bit of gut, but I think what bothers me is the mixed messages - it's very lukewarm. 'Oh this is suss. But oh, repair Prudence I guess.']

On the point of my vote on Opal Lion, all I knew about Prudence before Opal claimed in thread was that they were, according to Ivory Dragonfly, considering claiming in thread but that they found it "intimidating" to claim publicly. Then Opal claimed in thread, after asking and seemingly continuing to ask for Cultivation's identity.

At the time, I believed Cultivation's ability was Night only, and so I worried that if Cultivation missed or protects split off due targeting a fake claim then Prudence could be lost forever, and after essentially swapping strategies Opal's claim rubbed me the wrong way. I feared they could be fake claiming for that reason, or could be a Champion Prudence still looking for Cultivation.

After no counter-claims were made and Ivory confirmed that Opal was the original claim, I needed to discount the first option. But not the second. I thought Opal was a plausible Champion, one that had happened to receive the splintered Prudence. And yes, I still believe that having a full Prudence in Champion hands is better than a Splintered one. A Full Prudence has to try and act normal with their distribution of PMs, while a Splintered one physically cannot do that; as well, it is much more difficult for a full Shard to disappear entirely. In short there are more ways to judge if a Prudence is good or bad when they can create PMs.

I moved my vote to Oxblood mainly because they were searching for Autonomy, and doing so... without much reasoning, even after posting. I will admit that I saw their explanatory post, but did not post after nor change my vote, because while I agree that Autonomy is the neutral more likely to side with the Champions, their reasoning on how to earn their support seemed... suffice it to say that I did not believe making Valor target a neutral three turns in a row is in the best interests of the Children of Adonalsium. They also did not reveal they had a role the Champions would be "unlikely to start with" until that post, and I did not really know what to make of that.

 

I doubt this will change anything. I will see what I can do in the meantime.

-Solemnheart

[Sapphire Elephant]

"aight aight aight, prolly common knowledge by now if anyones trackin movements of everyone, im mistah A, dis sorry excuse of a vessel for a shard, if you will. im revealin now becosh big o is free an kill anyone. coa and ocs im jusht hoppin planets, inveshtin and votin via my ashpect, no threat to ya. leave me alone. im autonomy afta all. huh perhapsh solitude woulda been a better shard name. also claimin becosh sorta shure elims know mistah a issa me. becosh in d2 i wash on fots twas - me, king tut, lizzy boy, stripesy. i hopped ta scadrial next, but no one elsh joined or left fots so in d3 twas - king tut, lizzy boy, stripesy and tantr (issa my ashpect which i created in d2). so issa obviosh to anyone on fots that i be auto. an since gecko was there and gecko be oc, oc moshtly know i be auto as well. figured might ash well let coa know. equal footin an all that."

"someone queschund me allegiance becosh i added extra vote on albatroaz. issa becosh i had already added extra vote on gecko in d2. did not want to add extra vote again on gecko in d3 cosh it dont sherve my wincon. my extra votesh are only for my wincon thas all. i hafta target 2 ocs and 2 coa to complete one of my wincon. extra vote is sholely for that. makes no sense for me to vote gecko again in d3. bashically - d2: gecko; d3: albatroaz"

"alsho alshoo meshage to ruin pleaaasse por favor dont deshtroy taldain, fots, scadrial. i been inveshted in them. also me currently in nalthis, so dont deshtroy that too. if youre already on one of these planers and think a cycle is washted if ya don't deshtroy it, i have a plan! jusht attack it once! then if/when i win/die you can revisit the planet, attack it again and deshtroy hmm? okay? thanks! :)" 

[Azure Mouse]

[OOC: @Sapphire Elephant: Roleclaim unclear - please confirm if claiming Autonomy or Alcohol thx.

So, @Plum Rhinoceros- as I said, that's the whole point of me preparing that handy evidence table. Because if I hadn't, then there'd be no breadcrumbs for the Village to follow on my inevitable flip. So, just to recap again:

Odium Investee & Odium Candidates

Spoiler

Shadesmar Eight+	Non-Shard	Basis	Connections	Certainty
Amethyst Scorpion	NO	Scan, Claim, Offer, Investment (x3)	Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly	MODERATE*
Azure Mouse	YES	Investee (x4)	Turquoise Gorilla, Opal Lion, Amethyst Scorpion	STRONG
Charcoal Hyena	NO	Claim	Turquoise Gorilla, Saffron Iguana	STRONG
Ivory Dragonfly	NO	Scan, Claim, Investment, Investee	Azure Mouse, Amethyst Scorpion, Opal Lion	MODERATE
Melon Dingo	NO	Claim, Mechanics	NONE	STRONG
Plum Rhinoceros	YES	Scan (x2)	Ivory Dragonfly, Violet Axolotl	MODERATE
Saffron Iguana	NO	Claim	Sage Kangaroo, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion	MODERATE*
Turquoise Gorilla	NO	Claim, Investment	Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly	STRONG
Violet Axolotl	YES	Investee (x4)	Onyx Flamingo, Azure Mouse	STRONG

To recap: Odium investee candidates in purple, Odium candidates in orange highlights. Connections indicates who a player is connected to, who you need to check and ask, "Can these folks be Elims together" because they're either getting pocketed or misinformed or are fellow Elims. Certainty is my personal assessment of the strength of the evidence, which is captured as well under 'Basis.'

So on a slight tangent but that's relevant to your question about how certain I am of the claims:

Here's my problem. I don't actually know how to make sense of the lack of a N2 Odium Shardic kill because Odium being redirected or targeting a non-Shard or a Shard not in the Rosharan system would have been written up as an attack-protect. Odium was very likely role-blocked. And yet I'm fairly certain of the information from Shadesmar, to the point I was like "ohgod y'all gotta be crapping me" when I realised I'd been laser-focused on the Investee but not on Odium.

I am most certain of Dingo, Hyena, and Gorilla. For them to be Odium or non-Shards, something will have gone very wrong. IMO Dingo has the strongest claim because the rules of the game pretty much entail that Dingo must be a Shard. There is very strong situational evidence for Gorilla and Hyena to be Shards as well. I know the exact Shards they claim to be, but I'm not outing them to the thread. That much should be their choice.

I am fairly certain of Scorpion and Dragonfly and Iguana - less so than Dingo, Hyena, and Gorilla, admittedly - but if push came to shove, I'd look there for my Odium candidates, possibly you if you claim the Investiture Scanner was lying about you. 

I am not as disturbed by the number of Shards on Shadesmar. For one, Dingo and Dragonfly complained previously about the difficulty of finding a non-Shard. For another, by that point, we're easily looking at 16-15 Shards to 9 non-Shards: first, your chances of encountering a Shard are higher, and second, as non-Shards have charge-limited items or minor roles, it's more logical we'd consider picking up more items or abilities to improve what we can do. And especially when C1 Prudence had been very restrictive about PMs, it's hardly surprising that the roles that would value PMs more highly tend to be Shards (safeclaiming, or finding a trused investee, etcetera), and would want to go to Shadesmar. If it wasn't for my need to get in contact with Elephant or Axolotl after yelling at each other in thread previously, I'd have just hopped to Roshar or Nalthis outright. So I don't really see why the logic of self-selection would be considered so odd.

Failure Points:

Spoiler

Sure, let's take a step back and look at the major assumptions in my argument thus far. Or what I will refer to as failure points - places where the argument could break down if something turns out to be false.

Failure Point #1: The Elim Team Didn't Kill

Spoiler

 

Team Odium simply didn't put in a kill to screw with us. No need for complicated explanations. Except - how likely is that? To me, something must be gained from this. Elim teams that have lost one member and are on the way to losing another through Gecko Delenda Est trains (N2 mood had swung against Gecko), don't just do unexpected things for the sake of being unexpected. What is the expected strategic advantage in refusing to put in either the Odium kill or the investee kill?

We could say that maybe the Elim team didn't expect Gecko to be under that level of suspicion. And yet, they clearly did, because Gecko was flagged as suspicious N1 and Mercy knew enough to apply exe protection to Gecko. They clearly anticipated some kind of need for a delaying action, even if they also clearly hoped it wouldn't come to that.

What advantage then? For instance, the Elim Team must've considered pinning the blame on someone like Ostrich, who was cohabitating a planet with Beagle and Autonomy then. But Autonomy has clearly utilised his ability to vote once on Gecko, so that would not be a very effective way to go. Backstabbing an uninvolved neutral would also not be good for their credibility. And Ruin was very close-mouthed about their play: [Ruin, can you confirm if anyone knew you were planning to destroy Shadesmar? In a PM if not in thread.] - meaning that this would require Elim knowledge of a roleblock. Otherwise we'd be barking up the wrong tree.

Another question is how this Elim team's risk appetite is. I feel as though we can state they have a moderate risk-appetite but dislike bussing: they were willing to expose Gecko for a 50% chance of saving Crocodile, but not to get more obvious/blatant than that. We have the phenomenon of the D2 Beagle train, which showed they intended to hide Mercy's involvement for as long as possible, or at least to cost us a player who'd claimed to be a powerful role. We have the Mercy protection, all to save Gecko, which did have the side-effect of painting Gecko as someone who had to be executed. They're clearly not into fighting hopeless fights either, which is why the D3 Gecko removal went uncontested. The point is that I guess it wouldn't be out of their profile to refuse to kill, but what purpose would it serve?

Or maybe Odium forgot to put in a kill or didn't show up all cycle. I guess theoretically possible, but who would that be then? Chameleon? Vulture? It doesn't really matter if it's a semi-active because a lot of them are currently either due to be filter-killed or replaced by a pinch-hitter so IMO better to focus on what we have rn.

A corollary of this failure point is that Odium might not have killed because there was no one in the Rosharan system N2. I don't know how likely that is, and I think we really need information on this point. Some of the likely movement gaps are @Pearl Chameleon and @Indigo Weasel and @Scarlet Octopus.

 

Failure Point #2: There Is A Hidden Roleblock or Redirect We're Not Told Of

Spoiler

 

Okay. Logically possible, I agree, but given how much we've been dwelling on everyone who got roleblocked on N2, anyone who did a hidden roleblock and didn't report in almost certainly has to be Elim given that they're keeping knowledge that could lead to a misexe. On the other hand, any Village who put in a roleblock would probably be pretty excited their efforts seem to have led to results. So why aren't we hearing anything?

Abesence of evidence is not evidence of absence but I think the best inference to draw from this ongoing silence is that hidden roleblocks are unlikely. Same logic for a hidden redirect.

 

Failure Point #3: Someone in the Shadesmar Eight+ Is Lying

Spoiler

Sure ain't me though.

More seriously, this is precisely the point of my drop table, for the Village to work on given knowledge of my flip, since I left it as a 'what if I got NKed N3' contingency plan. I'll explain more in the next section. In short, the evidence table compiles the types of evidence we have for each person's Shardic status, and who is connected or implicated if this person is lying. From a pathwalking perspective, we can say: "For X to be an Elim, at least two of X, Y, Z have to be Elims together." And then we can assess that possibility based on the probability of the preconditions "At least two of X, Y, Z have to be Elims together," obtaining.

 

Odium's Investee: Curious and Curiouser:

Spoiler

In my view, we are left with myself, Axolotl, and Rhino as the main candidates - logically-speaking, once we assume that the only way the kills could have been missing is because of a roleblock (cf. Failure Points #1 and #2.) As I mentioned at the very beginning of the post, in my eyes, the evidence for Dingo's Shardic status is unimpeachable, and therefore gold standard. I just don't see a single failure point in that logic. The situational evidence for Gorilla's and Hyena's Shardic statuses is a tad weaker, but in general, I would evaluate it as being on that level. The short of it is they have no reason to behave the way they do if they are not the Shards they claimed to be, and one of them invested in me N1 and has been behaving consistently thus far.

I think the evidence for Axolotl being a non-Shard is fairly strong, as it is for me, given we have claimed to have been successfully invested in. Too, this makes sense of Flamingo's accusations of Axolotl on Preservation's behalf. 

Rhino, as I've indicated, the main evidence for you being a non-Shard is an Investiture scan which declared you had High Investiture, meaning you cannot be a Shard. Investiture scans pick up on the highest Investiture level of the target, so if you were a Shard, we'd see Deific Investiture instead. I haven't exactly been reticent about who scanned you either, as it's been implied. However, you have also been action-scanned last night, which indicated you were using an investiture action. So the question to me, is - what action were you using? If it wasn't the kill, what was it, then? 

Yes, again, the scanners could've been redirected - if so, anyone who redirected a C3 scan should really say something, whether in thread or by PM to a contact who can declare it for you, or you could be leading to a misexe!

I'll cover your questions about certainty on the others in my other section, which concerns which of the Shards might be Odium.

Hatoful Mr Splinter-Me-Timbers: Where Are You?

Spoiler

As I've mentioned, if push comes to shove, and I'm required to postulate Odium was also roleblocked N2, then the shortlist of Shards I'd argue could possibly be Odium are Iguana, Dragonfly, and Scorpion. And ironically enough, you, if you claim you are a Shard and the Investiture Scan was mistaken.

Iguana's Shardic status hinges on at least one of Dingo/Kangaroo being of Odium, and potentially, Opal Lion and one false investee claim. Minimally, we'd need to claim there is at least two Elims in that set, one of whom is Iguana, and one of whom is a target scanner or the Shard itself. Possibly more. Kangaroo and Dingo seem more or less Village, so I don't see this being super viable unless you have an Elim read on Lion. 

Dragonfly's Shardic status hinges on a distinctive scan result, a second action scan (Shardic), and is supported by a claim, myself, Opal Lion, and Amethyst Scorpion. Minimally, for Dragonfly to be a different Shard or a non-Shard is not impossible but requires minimally that Dragonfly and Opal Lion be Elim teammates, or at least, that there be a redirect on the Elim team plus knowledge of the identity of the actual Shard Dragonfly claims to be, if not for that Shard to be on the Elim team. That's...a busy team. But not impossible either.

Scorpion's Shardic status hinges on a claim, an action scan (investiture action, D2), and an investment, and is supported by myself and Scorpion; Dragonfly did present some information that backed up Scorpion's claim as well, so I guess either Scorpion would have to have been peddling the same lie, or is telling the truth. The D2 scan is not a smoking gun of Shardic status since it is consistent with an investee, so if another Shard invested in Scorpion C1, you might kinda want to tell someone, again, though IDK if it'd be really telling since the GM message always tells a Shard their investment in another Shard was successful. Scorpion did invest in me last night though, and it checks out, so for Scorpion to be deceitful, Scorpion would need to be on the team with that Shard, and another scanner.

Given the number of moving parts, I'm not really sold on any of those options, which is why I'm genuinely wondering about whether people were or were not in RS N2 with regard to the missing Odium kill. Can't put in a kill order if ain't nobody kayana enough to camp out there, kolo?

On the Ostrich issue: I'm divided, but I had wondered in retrospect (N2) if the Beagle issue was meant to push a train to try to save Gecko, as nothing else appeared to be gaining traction. The problem is this would make the Beagle train a heavily Elim-dominated train (I'm sure some would contend entirely Elim dominated, in which case if I ever die this game, enjoy the flip!  ) and that seems a bit overt to me. But this is a team that got Gecko to try to save Crocodile, and having to work purely off actions here, I don't put utter trust in my profiling of the Elim team, either. It will be of necessity reactive and I'll have to adjust it over time. But this synchs up well to me with what Coral Swan is saying: that Team Odium probably tested various trains to try to see what would stick, and what might get enough buy-in to defeat the Gecko train, or at least cement a solid alternative. Especially with Gecko coming in onto that train as well. (@Plum Rhinoceros, I'm curious; since you were fourth, why even join a train Gecko was on? At the point I first piled the vote, Beagle hadn't responded, and by the time I got back (as I said in thread), it was really late, Gecko was solidly on the way to an execution, and I dislike last minute votes on principle unless necessary so I didn't see a reason to swap trains like that.)

Anyway - for the moment, Rhino, Ostrich for reasons. I will finalise hours before rollover tomorrow, preferably, if you all don't do last minute info dump stuff.

Finally: In short, if you prefer me executed today to clear up the air and to be very sure I'm not deceiving you, go ahead. I don't really care, though I dispassionately think it is useless and irrational, as I am reporting the information I have collected - and that I have often been told despite wanting to play this game at a chill, RPful, quiet level  Moreover, my sources have not contested their presentation as being connected to the mentioned individuals, which in my view, demonstrates that I'm not incorrect in my characterisation. You're (general you) better off interrogating the people who are deeply intertwined with specific pieces of evidence in favour of Shardic/non-Shardic status, but hey, you all do you all. I've been told I'm very distracting >> ]

Edited to add: I'd take anyone on Ashyn to be hardcleared (well, soft if you think the Elims have a kill item/role) as Odium and softcleared as killers since they were roleblocked.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Azure Mouse

[Sapphire Elephant]

 "jkjkjk that was a varrryyyy intuitive and fullly thought out comprehenshive crystal clear analysish of da shadeshmar eight, good work, varry well done indeed. i definitely readd the entirety of it front and back multiple times"  

22 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

[OOC: @Sapphire Elephant: Roleclaim unclear - please confirm if claiming Autonomy or Alcohol thx.

"an whatchya mean one or the other? why not both? cosh it ish both. call me mistah aa. definitely not alcoholics anonymous. lmao imagine dat, me needin aa meetings. not a chance. im talkin autonomously alcoholic "

Edited January 10, 2021 by Sapphire Elephant

[Azure Mouse]

10 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

"an whatchya mean one or the other? why not both? cosh it ish both. call me mistah aa. definitely not alcoholics anonymous. lmao imagine dat, me needin aa meetings. not a chance. im talkin autonomously alcoholic "

Spoiler

 

[Sapphire Elephant]

"that be or truth table? im tellin and! ahhh dont make me think. head hurt. truth table be tellin lies"

[Azure Mouse]

1 minute ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

"that be or truth table? im tellin and! ahhh dont make me think. head hurt. truth table be tellin lies"

Spoiler

 

[Sapphire Elephant]

"and that, my dear frens, issa beautiful fallacy. that truth cannot lie. why not? why cannot truth lie? because from truths pershpective, it's tellin the truth, so shure cant blame truth itself. what truth believes to be true might not be true for us. were seein it from our pershpective, truth's truth can be lies for us! indeed. we musht not blindly believe truth as truth can be false for us! either that or im absolutely plashtered an ramblin like a madman. go figure"

[Azure Mouse]

3 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

"and that, my dear frens, issa beautiful fallacy. that truth cannot lie. why not? why cannot truth lie? because from truths pershpective, it's tellin the truth, so shure cant blame truth itself. what truth believes to be true might not be true for us. were seein it from our pershpective, truth's truth can be lies for us! indeed. we musht not blindly believe truth as truth can be false for us! either that or im absolutely plashtered an ramblin like a madman. go figure"

[OOC: Analytically, that's straightforwardly false. And also, only if you take truth to be agent-perspective truth  I can see why that's an appealing view for Alcoholics Autonomous but for instance, people who subscribe to the correspondence theory of truth as I do can apply it to agent-perspective correspondence but also agent-independent correspondence  Sweet.]

Edited January 10, 2021 by Azure Mouse

[Sapphire Elephant]

" nah nah nah every aspect of the universe is an agent. anythin and everythin. ya give enough attention ta it - boom, issa agent. i shud know, im autonomous. i know every aspect, and it wishes ta be an agent unto itself. wisdom? issa agent. wantsa do its own shtuff on taldain. goes my da name of rezarach. annoyance? yellin at people on fots as tantr. arrogance? well we all know trell from scadrial dont we? and so and so forth. jealousy? agent itself. anger? check. brevity? yup. beauty. greed. intelligence. humor an every abstract concept ya can think of, is an agent. and hens jushht like all these and maaaany more, truth is an agent too. if we pay enough attenshun ta it, truth becomes our mashter. itll rule over us...until it shtarts feedin us lies! lies that truth believes to be true! like a villain who believes his deeds are benevolent and noble, while he does the exact opposite of his intenshun. THAT, my dear fren rat, is the truth"

Edited January 10, 2021 by Sapphire Elephant

[Azure Mouse]

2 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

" nah nah nah every aspect of the universe is an agent. anythin and everythin. ya give enough attention ta it - boom, issa agent. i shud know, im autonomous. i know every aspect, and it wishes ta be an agent unto itself. wisdom? issa agent. wantsa do its own shtuff on taldain. goes my da name of rezarach. annoyance? yellin at people on fots as tantr. arrogance? well we all know trell from scadrial dont we? and so and so forth. jealousy? agent itself. anger? check. brevity? yup. beauty. greed. intelligence. humor an every abstract concept ya can think of, is an agent. and hens jushht like all these and maaaany more, truth is an agent too. if we pay enough attenshun ta it, truth becomes our mashter. itll rule over us...until it shtarts feedin us lies! lies that truth believes to be true! like a villain who believes his deeds are benevolent and noble, while he does the exact opposite of his intenshun. THAT, my dear fren rat, is the truth"

[OOC: Your agents are beautiful, as are you, but you should consider doing a degree in philosophy at the University in Silverlight and get a new aspect for it. Learn about life, the Cosmere, and everything.

Oh wait.

Someone destroyed it ]

[Sapphire Elephant]

"yeah. they ruined my plans. huh i seem ta have garnered quite a bit of attenshun. ill go back an sleep in da corner. yous continue ta discuss the game. my intenshun washnt ta derail your discusshun. buuuut notta lotta discusshun wash going on in da fursht place so"

[Azure Mouse]

22 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

"yeah. they ruined my plans. huh i seem ta have garnered quite a bit of attenshun. ill go back an sleep in da corner. yous continue ta discuss the game. my intenshun washnt ta derail your discusshun. buuuut notta lotta discusshun wash going on in da fursht place so"

Tenth of the Dusk was pretty sure he was going to regret this. But it was raining on Roshar, and it was cold, and lonely in the crevasse though a little less lonely now this day. And he wasn't going anywhere near the Alethi warcamps until the highstorm's fury was expended, the Father permitting.

If the Father permitted. The Father is merciful, his trainer had said, the first time they set foot on Patji's sand. If you screw up, you will die swiftly.

He wondered if Kaddar was going to kill him. But there was only the hunt, and then the next bounty. The life of an itinerant, with enough variance to add splashes of colour. Yesterday Shadesmar, today Roshar.

"Got any of that alcohol to share, then?" Tenth asked, and hoped he wasn't going to regret this too much. Chase the damp away, at least. He may as well join Al in getting some rest before the cold grey light of mourning faded to the afternoon sun.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Azure Mouse

[Melon Dingo]

Spoiler

3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

[OOC: @Sapphire Elephant: Roleclaim unclear - please confirm if claiming Autonomy or Alcohol thx.

So, @Plum Rhinoceros- as I said, that's the whole point of me preparing that handy evidence table. Because if I hadn't, then there'd be no breadcrumbs for the Village to follow on my inevitable flip. So, just to recap again:

Odium Investee & Odium Candidates

  Reveal hidden contents

Shadesmar Eight+	Non-Shard	Basis	Connections	Certainty
Amethyst Scorpion	NO	Scan, Claim, Offer, Investment (x3)	Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly	MODERATE*
Azure Mouse	YES	Investee (x4)	Turquoise Gorilla, Opal Lion, Amethyst Scorpion	STRONG
Charcoal Hyena	NO	Claim	Turquoise Gorilla, Saffron Iguana	STRONG
Ivory Dragonfly	NO	Scan, Claim, Investment, Investee	Azure Mouse, Amethyst Scorpion, Opal Lion	MODERATE
Melon Dingo	NO	Claim, Mechanics	NONE	STRONG
Plum Rhinoceros	YES	Scan (x2)	Ivory Dragonfly, Violet Axolotl	MODERATE
Saffron Iguana	NO	Claim	Sage Kangaroo, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion	MODERATE*
Turquoise Gorilla	NO	Claim, Investment	Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly	STRONG
Violet Axolotl	YES	Investee (x4)	Onyx Flamingo, Azure Mouse	STRONG

To recap: Odium investee candidates in purple, Odium candidates in orange highlights. Connections indicates who a player is connected to, who you need to check and ask, "Can these folks be Elims together" because they're either getting pocketed or misinformed or are fellow Elims. Certainty is my personal assessment of the strength of the evidence, which is captured as well under 'Basis.'

So on a slight tangent but that's relevant to your question about how certain I am of the claims:

Here's my problem. I don't actually know how to make sense of the lack of a N2 Odium Shardic kill because Odium being redirected or targeting a non-Shard or a Shard not in the Rosharan system would have been written up as an attack-protect. Odium was very likely role-blocked. And yet I'm fairly certain of the information from Shadesmar, to the point I was like "ohgod y'all gotta be crapping me" when I realised I'd been laser-focused on the Investee but not on Odium.

I am most certain of Dingo, Hyena, and Gorilla. For them to be Odium or non-Shards, something will have gone very wrong. IMO Dingo has the strongest claim because the rules of the game pretty much entail that Dingo must be a Shard. There is very strong situational evidence for Gorilla and Hyena to be Shards as well. I know the exact Shards they claim to be, but I'm not outing them to the thread. That much should be their choice.

I am fairly certain of Scorpion and Dragonfly and Iguana - less so than Dingo, Hyena, and Gorilla, admittedly - but if push came to shove, I'd look there for my Odium candidates, possibly you if you claim the Investiture Scanner was lying about you. 

I am not as disturbed by the number of Shards on Shadesmar. For one, Dingo and Dragonfly complained previously about the difficulty of finding a non-Shard. For another, by that point, we're easily looking at 16-15 Shards to 9 non-Shards: first, your chances of encountering a Shard are higher, and second, as non-Shards have charge-limited items or minor roles, it's more logical we'd consider picking up more items or abilities to improve what we can do. And especially when C1 Prudence had been very restrictive about PMs, it's hardly surprising that the roles that would value PMs more highly tend to be Shards (safeclaiming, or finding a trused investee, etcetera), and would want to go to Shadesmar. If it wasn't for my need to get in contact with Elephant or Axolotl after yelling at each other in thread previously, I'd have just hopped to Roshar or Nalthis outright. So I don't really see why the logic of self-selection would be considered so odd.

Failure Points:

  Hide contents

Sure, let's take a step back and look at the major assumptions in my argument thus far. Or what I will refer to as failure points - places where the argument could break down if something turns out to be false.

Failure Point #1: The Elim Team Didn't Kill

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Team Odium simply didn't put in a kill to screw with us. No need for complicated explanations. Except - how likely is that? To me, something must be gained from this. Elim teams that have lost one member and are on the way to losing another through Gecko Delenda Est trains (N2 mood had swung against Gecko), don't just do unexpected things for the sake of being unexpected. What is the expected strategic advantage in refusing to put in either the Odium kill or the investee kill?

We could say that maybe the Elim team didn't expect Gecko to be under that level of suspicion. And yet, they clearly did, because Gecko was flagged as suspicious N1 and Mercy knew enough to apply exe protection to Gecko. They clearly anticipated some kind of need for a delaying action, even if they also clearly hoped it wouldn't come to that.

What advantage then? For instance, the Elim Team must've considered pinning the blame on someone like Ostrich, who was cohabitating a planet with Beagle and Autonomy then. But Autonomy has clearly utilised his ability to vote once on Gecko, so that would not be a very effective way to go. Backstabbing an uninvolved neutral would also not be good for their credibility. And Ruin was very close-mouthed about their play: [Ruin, can you confirm if anyone knew you were planning to destroy Shadesmar? In a PM if not in thread.] - meaning that this would require Elim knowledge of a roleblock. Otherwise we'd be barking up the wrong tree.

Another question is how this Elim team's risk appetite is. I feel as though we can state they have a moderate risk-appetite but dislike bussing: they were willing to expose Gecko for a 50% chance of saving Crocodile, but not to get more obvious/blatant than that. We have the phenomenon of the D2 Beagle train, which showed they intended to hide Mercy's involvement for as long as possible, or at least to cost us a player who'd claimed to be a powerful role. We have the Mercy protection, all to save Gecko, which did have the side-effect of painting Gecko as someone who had to be executed. They're clearly not into fighting hopeless fights either, which is why the D3 Gecko removal went uncontested. The point is that I guess it wouldn't be out of their profile to refuse to kill, but what purpose would it serve?

Or maybe Odium forgot to put in a kill or didn't show up all cycle. I guess theoretically possible, but who would that be then? Chameleon? Vulture? It doesn't really matter if it's a semi-active because a lot of them are currently either due to be filter-killed or replaced by a pinch-hitter so IMO better to focus on what we have rn.

A corollary of this failure point is that Odium might not have killed because there was no one in the Rosharan system N2. I don't know how likely that is, and I think we really need information on this point. Some of the likely movement gaps are @Pearl Chameleon and @Indigo Weasel and @Scarlet Octopus.

 

Failure Point #2: There Is A Hidden Roleblock or Redirect We're Not Told Of

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Okay. Logically possible, I agree, but given how much we've been dwelling on everyone who got roleblocked on N2, anyone who did a hidden roleblock and didn't report in almost certainly has to be Elim given that they're keeping knowledge that could lead to a misexe. On the other hand, any Village who put in a roleblock would probably be pretty excited their efforts seem to have led to results. So why aren't we hearing anything?

Abesence of evidence is not evidence of absence but I think the best inference to draw from this ongoing silence is that hidden roleblocks are unlikely. Same logic for a hidden redirect.

 

Failure Point #3: Someone in the Shadesmar Eight+ Is Lying

  Reveal hidden contents

Sure ain't me though.

More seriously, this is precisely the point of my drop table, for the Village to work on given knowledge of my flip, since I left it as a 'what if I got NKed N3' contingency plan. I'll explain more in the next section. In short, the evidence table compiles the types of evidence we have for each person's Shardic status, and who is connected or implicated if this person is lying. From a pathwalking perspective, we can say: "For X to be an Elim, at least two of X, Y, Z have to be Elims together." And then we can assess that possibility based on the probability of the preconditions "At least two of X, Y, Z have to be Elims together," obtaining.

 

Odium's Investee: Curious and Curiouser:

  Reveal hidden contents

In my view, we are left with myself, Axolotl, and Rhino as the main candidates - logically-speaking, once we assume that the only way the kills could have been missing is because of a roleblock (cf. Failure Points #1 and #2.) As I mentioned at the very beginning of the post, in my eyes, the evidence for Dingo's Shardic status is unimpeachable, and therefore gold standard. I just don't see a single failure point in that logic. The situational evidence for Gorilla's and Hyena's Shardic statuses is a tad weaker, but in general, I would evaluate it as being on that level. The short of it is they have no reason to behave the way they do if they are not the Shards they claimed to be, and one of them invested in me N1 and has been behaving consistently thus far.

I think the evidence for Axolotl being a non-Shard is fairly strong, as it is for me, given we have claimed to have been successfully invested in. Too, this makes sense of Flamingo's accusations of Axolotl on Preservation's behalf. 

Rhino, as I've indicated, the main evidence for you being a non-Shard is an Investiture scan which declared you had High Investiture, meaning you cannot be a Shard. Investiture scans pick up on the highest Investiture level of the target, so if you were a Shard, we'd see Deific Investiture instead. I haven't exactly been reticent about who scanned you either, as it's been implied. However, you have also been action-scanned last night, which indicated you were using an investiture action. So the question to me, is - what action were you using? If it wasn't the kill, what was it, then? 

Yes, again, the scanners could've been redirected - if so, anyone who redirected a C3 scan should really say something, whether in thread or by PM to a contact who can declare it for you, or you could be leading to a misexe!

I'll cover your questions about certainty on the others in my other section, which concerns which of the Shards might be Odium.

Hatoful Mr Splinter-Me-Timbers: Where Are You?

  Reveal hidden contents

As I've mentioned, if push comes to shove, and I'm required to postulate Odium was also roleblocked N2, then the shortlist of Shards I'd argue could possibly be Odium are Iguana, Dragonfly, and Scorpion. And ironically enough, you, if you claim you are a Shard and the Investiture Scan was mistaken.

Iguana's Shardic status hinges on at least one of Dingo/Kangaroo being of Odium, and potentially, Opal Lion and one false investee claim. Minimally, we'd need to claim there is at least two Elims in that set, one of whom is Iguana, and one of whom is a target scanner or the Shard itself. Possibly more. Kangaroo and Dingo seem more or less Village, so I don't see this being super viable unless you have an Elim read on Lion. 

Dragonfly's Shardic status hinges on a distinctive scan result, a second action scan (Shardic), and is supported by a claim, myself, Opal Lion, and Amethyst Scorpion. Minimally, for Dragonfly to be a different Shard or a non-Shard is not impossible but requires minimally that Dragonfly and Opal Lion be Elim teammates, or at least, that there be a redirect on the Elim team plus knowledge of the identity of the actual Shard Dragonfly claims to be, if not for that Shard to be on the Elim team. That's...a busy team. But not impossible either.

Scorpion's Shardic status hinges on a claim, an action scan (investiture action, D2), and an investment, and is supported by myself and Scorpion; Dragonfly did present some information that backed up Scorpion's claim as well, so I guess either Scorpion would have to have been peddling the same lie, or is telling the truth. The D2 scan is not a smoking gun of Shardic status since it is consistent with an investee, so if another Shard invested in Scorpion C1, you might kinda want to tell someone, again, though IDK if it'd be really telling since the GM message always tells a Shard their investment in another Shard was successful. Scorpion did invest in me last night though, and it checks out, so for Scorpion to be deceitful, Scorpion would need to be on the team with that Shard, and another scanner.

Given the number of moving parts, I'm not really sold on any of those options, which is why I'm genuinely wondering about whether people were or were not in RS N2 with regard to the missing Odium kill. Can't put in a kill order if ain't nobody kayana enough to camp out there, kolo?

On the Ostrich issue: I'm divided, but I had wondered in retrospect (N2) if the Beagle issue was meant to push a train to try to save Gecko, as nothing else appeared to be gaining traction. The problem is this would make the Beagle train a heavily Elim-dominated train (I'm sure some would contend entirely Elim dominated, in which case if I ever die this game, enjoy the flip!  ) and that seems a bit overt to me. But this is a team that got Gecko to try to save Crocodile, and having to work purely off actions here, I don't put utter trust in my profiling of the Elim team, either. It will be of necessity reactive and I'll have to adjust it over time. But this synchs up well to me with what Coral Swan is saying: that Team Odium probably tested various trains to try to see what would stick, and what might get enough buy-in to defeat the Gecko train, or at least cement a solid alternative. Especially with Gecko coming in onto that train as well. (@Plum Rhinoceros, I'm curious; since you were fourth, why even join a train Gecko was on? At the point I first piled the vote, Beagle hadn't responded, and by the time I got back (as I said in thread), it was really late, Gecko was solidly on the way to an execution, and I dislike last minute votes on principle unless necessary so I didn't see a reason to swap trains like that.)

Anyway - for the moment, Rhino, Ostrich for reasons. I will finalise hours before rollover tomorrow, preferably, if you all don't do last minute info dump stuff.

Finally: In short, if you prefer me executed today to clear up the air and to be very sure I'm not deceiving you, go ahead. I don't really care, though I dispassionately think it is useless and irrational, as I am reporting the information I have collected - and that I have often been told despite wanting to play this game at a chill, RPful, quiet level  Moreover, my sources have not contested their presentation as being connected to the mentioned individuals, which in my view, demonstrates that I'm not incorrect in my characterisation. You're (general you) better off interrogating the people who are deeply intertwined with specific pieces of evidence in favour of Shardic/non-Shardic status, but hey, you all do you all. I've been told I'm very distracting >> ]

Edited to add: I'd take anyone on Ashyn to be hardcleared (well, soft if you think the Elims have a kill item/role) as Odium and softcleared as killers since they were roleblocked.

 

I like this. I trust you, though your vote on Ostrich leaves some things to be desired. I would like to know your thoughts behind it. If not in thread right now, in PMs? 

However, I do disagree with you about one of Kangaroo/Iguana being an elim. Knowing their roles, I find it extremely hard to believe they would be OC, if only for balance reasons. I find it even more unlikely that’d I’d be on the same elim team as them, because I’m sure everyone has figured out that I’m Ruin at this point. I was the only player, besides Ivory Dragonfly, to be on Shadesmar for the first two cycles. Also, my RP characters name (Niru Drash) is an anagram for the “Shard Ruin.”

Oh also, the only players that were with me on Ashyn last cycle were, Onyx Flamingo and Pearl Chameleon. Me and Flamingo were the only ones to talk, and by that I mean two lines of text. Don’t know what that means, but you’re welcome. 

 

[Violet Axolotl]

3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

A corollary of this failure point is that Odium might not have killed because there was no one in the Rosharan system N2. I don't know how likely that is, and I think we really need information on this point. Some of the likely movement gaps are @Pearl Chameleon and @Indigo Weasel and @Scarlet Octopus.

I can confirm that Chameleon and Weasel were not in the Rosharan system N2.

@Scarlet Octopus, where were you N2?

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

22 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Fuschia Ostrich

So I'm generally not a fan of anything Ostrich has said? not like- hey! I don't think it's bad! no, just a lot of it doesn't sit right with me. 

The biggest thing I don't feel good about is them Starting the counter train on Beagle and what came after that. They placed their vote on Beagle at a time when the main, talked about target, had been gecko. 

Then, throughout the day, they repeatedly say that they don't want to say what planet they're on, as they don't want the OCs to be able to figure out who Autonomy is, which, in this case doesn't quite make that much sense? as if Beagle was of Odium, it hurts no one to tell the whole thread what planet you're on. 

I mean, their whole reasoning was "if this is odious, we don't want it, and if it's not odious, then it's okay i guess but still not good" and they basically gave reasoning that would still....leave them okay? if Beagle flipped Village, which they did, and then Ostrich said:

Which if this is good reasoning, we might have as well just killed you :P. trying to get rid of the only other person who could know Autonomy's identity at the time? :P. 

They also weirdly mentioned that they weren't going to vote at all which I of course don't want to get into that discussion but Them not wanting to vote D1 or 2 is ????????

"That's all fair. I haven't given this whole situation nearly the focus it deserves, but in my defense, I have the attention span of a child. Voting for Beagle was a mistake, I should have talked to them and Rezzie in Taldain first and figured out what to do.

And I'm neven sure who to vote. I'll definetely vote for Rhino today, since the evidence seems pretty dang strong. Which is sad, I liked him. I actually thought he was Big A for a while. I'll try to vote every day from now on, and post more."

10 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

"aight aight aight, prolly common knowledge by now if anyones trackin movements of everyone, im mistah A, dis sorry excuse of a vessel for a shard, if you will. im revealin now becosh big o is free an kill anyone. coa and ocs im jusht hoppin planets, inveshtin and votin via my ashpect, no threat to ya. leave me alone. im autonomy afta all. huh perhapsh solitude woulda been a better shard name. also claimin becosh sorta shure elims know mistah a issa me. becosh in d2 i wash on fots twas - me, king tut, lizzy boy, stripesy. i hopped ta scadrial next, but no one elsh joined or left fots so in d3 twas - king tut, lizzy boy, stripesy and tantr (issa my ashpect which i created in d2). so issa obviosh to anyone on fots that i be auto. an since gecko was there and gecko be oc, oc moshtly know i be auto as well. figured might ash well let coa know. equal footin an all that."

"Hi Rezzie!"

3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

On the Ostrich issue: I'm divided, but I had wondered in retrospect (N2) if the Beagle issue was meant to push a train to try to save Gecko, as nothing else appeared to be gaining traction. The problem is this would make the Beagle train a heavily Elim-dominated train (I'm sure some would contend entirely Elim dominated, in which case if I ever die this game, enjoy the flip!  ) and that seems a bit overt to me. But this is a team that got Gecko to try to save Crocodile, and having to work purely off actions here, I don't put utter trust in my profiling of the Elim team, either. It will be of necessity reactive and I'll have to adjust it over time. But this synchs up well to me with what Coral Swan is saying: that Team Odium probably tested various trains to try to see what would stick, and what might get enough buy-in to defeat the Gecko train, or at least cement a solid alternative. Especially with Gecko coming in onto that train as well. (@Plum Rhinoceros, I'm curious; since you were fourth, why even join a train Gecko was on? At the point I first piled the vote, Beagle hadn't responded, and by the time I got back (as I said in thread), it was really late, Gecko was solidly on the way to an execution, and I dislike last minute votes on principle unless necessary so I didn't see a reason to swap trains like that.)

Anyway - for the moment, Rhino, Ostrich for reasons. I will finalise hours before rollover tomorrow, preferably, if you all don't do last minute info dump stuff.

"I am now the backup Execution target if Rhino is shown Mercy. That might be for the best, as it will prove my villageness and Rhino's evilness. Sorry again for not having anything more helpful to contribute."