Scadrian vs. Rosharan magic post RoW

[BenduLuke]

On 5/22/2021 at 8:59 PM, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Yes, generally these conversations assume a united planet. Unless you would like us to assume Roshar can:

• Learn and use Hemalurgy to give a Dustbringer or Edgedancer twin-steel + A-chromium to make a horrifyingly effective killing machine with massive stockpiles of metal thanks to Soulcasting. After all, Hemalurgy is open to everyone even more than Surgebinding is, and as long as they keep below 4 spikes, they should be fine.
• Learn how to make and use medallions
• Learn how to make and use Bands of Mourning-esque objects
• Either intercept or win over people involved with ettmetal and use it for either Leecher cubes or (very theoretically, no book backing for this) even Surge cubes
  • Even better: they can combine ettmetal with spren fabrials to form devices such as Leecher-painrial grenades capable of draining and incapacitating Metalborn nearby
• Convince, bribe, or coerce the very very very few Twinborn capable of posing any threat into joining them (there's what, five total of the real dangerous types combined at any given time, maybe?)

Additionally, Scadrial better hope we're assuming united planets, considering:

• The North is on the brink of civil war, and this has not been solved, and in fact is probably worse after Bands considering they think Wax killed Kelesina:

Getting metalborn abilities through Hemalurgy is a slippery slope since it opens the recipient up to manipulation. I am not contesting that the two planet would need to be internally  united, but what is the condition of each once they unite. At this point from my perspective Scadrial will likely resolve any differences peacefully, but Roshar is looking like it is going to have an apocalyptic war with spren dying on both sides because of Navai's discoveries.

You can also expect that both sides will adopt each others tech and weapons and even some of each others magic. Rosharan's probably wont make medallions instead they will steal them and yes they will probably learn to use hemalurgy, but that could create more of a disadvantage. While Scadrians will quickly steal and adopt Rosharan fabrials which will supercharge their own metalborn Realmatics advancement and some will bond some left over Spren. However none of that will likely happen until after a first conflict between them.

Another advantage Scadiral will have is in weapons development and production. Scadrial already has an industrial mass production technology while Roshar is still one off craftsman based with no mass production capability. For now Scadrian tech meshes with Scadrian magic better than Rosharan magic meshes with Rosharan Tech. Scadrial is in a postioin to produce Fabrials than Roshar is in a position to use Hemalurgy or produce Medallions. Also Rosharan magic has an inborn instant kill to fused and radiants in the magic itself that when Scadrians realize it will doom Radiants and Fused because it can kill their spren outright. At the moment their is no equivalent in Metalborn magic.

On 5/22/2021 at 8:59 PM, LewsTherinTelescope said:

• The South is fighting the "Deniers" (which they are worried enough about to seek out the Bands of Mourning to fight)
• The North and South have hardly any relationship of any kind besides initial drafts of hypothetical trade agreements made by a few lone people that neither government has even had a look at yet, much less approved, and certainly not any close military alliance

With the threat of the BoM negotiations will almost certainly succeed and war will be averted. If war does occur Scadrial will be in an even better military position against Roshar due to the newly developed weapons and tactics.

 

On 5/23/2021 at 0:41 AM, therunner said:

No it has not, NoScad is still mostly composed of independent city states

City states that are on the verge of being unified to create a stronger trade alliance to work with the south.

On 5/23/2021 at 0:41 AM, therunner said:

What flack? Flack explodes at set height before hand, and Radiant can change height by 50 meters under two seconds, more than enough to avoid it. And what thousands of bullets? To drop 500 meters (your stated number on effective range of rifle shooting) would take them ~6 seconds, in that time most rifle man could take two shots at best (and since they would have to adjust their aiming by ~45-30 degrees they would most likely fail to take the second shot), and they would need to be less then 250 meters away from intended drop point of Radiant. So unless you have at least 500 riflemen ready inside a circle with radius 250 meters, you will not even squeeze out one thousand shots.

Of course you also assume

1. That there is one Radiant dropping not multiple.
2. That all the bullets and all the shrapnel is aluminum, metal that is expansive enough that nobleman cannot easily make weapons out of it. Because if the bullets and shrapnel are not aluminum, reverse lashing simply makes them hit off target.
3. That Radiant start attack before disabling at least some weapons of Scadrial, be it by soulcasting from CR, or by dropping few 100 kg rocks first from 2-3 km high or by having Thunderclast attack at similar time.

And you accuse others of bias?

For starters I never claimed not to be biased. To claim that you all are not is disingenuous.

Scadrial already has machine guns and timing devices so yes flack and thousands of bullets. Flack does not need to be altitude dependent, it can be contact and timing dependent.

I also don't assume 1 radiant but dozens with no cover dropping into massed fire from cover.

Only windrunners have reverse lashings and they have never been tested against high velocity projectiles so off target may be mm's not feet or yards. In addition reverse lashing needs something physical to draw the projectiles they don't just work in open air and shardshields cannot be lashed.

Radiants would be under fire from the minute they come into range. They wouldn't know to go so high until after the first engagement, nor is it realistic that they would have 100's of kg of Rock 2 to 3 km's high. Even if they could accuracy from that height would be extremely low especially against a scattered force under cover.

It is clear to me that you really don't know what I am assuming.

On 5/23/2021 at 0:41 AM, therunner said:

And Scadrial has practiced no war for three centuries, so they have no tactics or strategy to speak of, and no idea how to use what little weapons they have truly effectively.

Sun Tzu's army also did not have flying siege platforms with swords that cut through anything like butter, and people that can heal severed spines, lost arms, or bullet/arrows to the head.

You are making some very huge assumptions. Switzerland hasn't engaged in war in centuries eight, but they maintain one of the most effective military forces in the world. To assume there are no military forces on Scadrial is beyond Naive.

Floating platforms vs actual airships I'll take air ships. Magic swords vs guns and explosives I'll take the guns. There is a reason why the saying of bringing a knife to a gun fight was created. Magic healing that can be stopped by a simple bullet and if placed correctly lead to instant death is barely an advantage. Then an instant death weapon against Rosharans built right into their own magic should give all of you pause.

I considered addressing your whole rant, but I am disappointing that you didn't really think through your responses. There are no anti-mists as of now so you cannot assume there will be. Odium is trapped regardless. Really I lost patience with the rest of your rant because it seemed as if your own bias and desperation fueled it not your usual rational arguments. You are sounding more like Frustration than yourself. Oh and you can't count on suppressor fields since those must be keyed to the specific kind of investiture and Roshar doesn't know that nor can they easily discover it, but some metalborn can.

Thanks for admitting that the ultimate metalborn will defeat any Radiant or Fused, even though I think you are wrong about that as well. I think it is a toss up who would win and depend on circumstances.

On 5/24/2021 at 6:49 PM, DoctaDajman said:

So this is sort of besides the point as I just need some clarification.  Does plate block it just due to the amount of investiture there?   I know there are substances and pieces of investiture that basically nullify use of the systems like aluminum.  In the alloy of law wax mentioned that if you just mixed aluminum with another metal it would still act like aluminum in as far as making it immune to pushes.  (Hence all the aluminum guns and bullets).   Is there an alloy using aluminum that could withstand a few strikes from a shardblade?   And if there is an alloy that would nullify the edge of a shardblade wouldn't it be fair to say that same alloy could damage shardplate as if it weren't invested at all?   Straight up I haven't even read way of kings yet.  I just love the world building and am asking for clarification vs the rest of this thread.  I am lame and can't help myself looking at spoilers and reading the wikis and forums for topics like this.

1st Duralumin is an alloy of aluminum so might be immune to steel pushes.

As it stands if aluminum is thick enough it can't be cut by even Nightblood. See oathbringer. Brandon has been quoted as saying that any thickness cannot be cut by a shardblade. Most of the fused weapons are also aluminum and never get cut and are capable of killing radiants.

Can aluminum nullify the defensive affect of shardplate. Most on this thread don't think so, but I suspect it might be able to get through because as you pointed out it is never damaged by invested attacks. It does other weird things as well and is not well understood yet so from my perspective any guess about what it might be capable of has worth.

Aluminum does hemalugically take away power. If Wax had shot Miles with aluminum bullets they would likely have killed him if they hit him in the heart or head since it also neutralizes invested healing in at least the region of penetration. And that is where we get the problem. It might not penetrate shardplate because of how soft it is.

Radiants are OP, and like Superman have their form of Kryptonite. Finish the Radiant novels then decided. I am in the vast minority in thinking that metalborn have more than a passing chance in a conflict with Radiants. I think the key to that is compounding not strait allomancy or feruchemy.

Welcome to the shard.

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

Getting metalborn abilities through Hemalurgy is a slippery slope since it opens the recipient up to manipulation. I am not contesting that the two planet would need to be internally  united, but what is the condition of each once they unite. At this point from my perspective Scadrial will likely resolve any differences peacefully, but Roshar is looking like it is going to have an apocalyptic war with spren dying on both sides because of Navai's discoveries.

With the threat of the BoM negotiations will almost certainly succeed and war will be averted.

City states that are on the verge of being unified to create a stronger trade alliance to work with the south.

Peaceful, really? They are on the verge of civil war they aren't going to say, "you know what let's be friends now that there is another group over there" The closest thing to this whould be the greco-persian wars and as soon as the Greeks won they went back to fighting each other.

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

You can also expect that both sides will adopt each others tech and weapons and even some of each others magic. Rosharan's probably wont make medallions instead they will steal them and yes they will probably learn to use hemalurgy, but that could create more of a disadvantage. While Scadrians will quickly steal and adopt Rosharan fabrials which will supercharge their own metalborn Realmatics advancement and some will bond some left over Spren. However none of that will likely happen until after a first conflict between them.

Why are spren allowed to change sides but Scadrians aren't?

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

Another advantage Scadiral will have is in weapons development and production. Scadrial already has an industrial mass production technology while Roshar is still one off craftsman based with no mass production capability. For now Scadrian tech meshes with Scadrian magic better than Rosharan magic meshes with Rosharan Tech. Scadrial is in a postioin to produce Fabrials than Roshar is in a position to use Hemalurgy or produce Medallions. Also Rosharan magic has an inborn instant kill to fused and radiants in the magic itself that when Scadrians realize it will doom Radiants and Fused because it can kill their spren outright. At the moment their is no equivalent in Metalborn magic.

Soulcasting is mass prduction Scadrial could never hope to replicate, and Anti-investiture is more than Roshar only.

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

If war does occur Scadrial will be in an even better military position against Roshar due to the newly developed weapons and tactics.

What newly developed weapons? What tactics?

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

For starters I never claimed not to be biased. To claim that you all are not is disingenuous.

Scadrial already has machine guns and timing devices so yes flack and thousands of bullets. Flack does not need to be altitude dependent, it can be contact and timing dependent.

I also don't assume 1 radiant but dozens with no cover dropping into massed fire from cover.

Only windrunners have reverse lashings and they have never been tested against high velocity projectiles so off target may be mm's not feet or yards. In addition reverse lashing needs something physical to draw the projectiles they don't just work in open air and shardshields cannot be lashed.

Radiants would be under fire from the minute they come into range. They wouldn't know to go so high until after the first engagement, nor is it realistic that they would have 100's of kg of Rock 2 to 3 km's high. Even if they could accuracy from that height would be extremely low especially against a scattered force under cover.

It is clear to me that you really don't know what I am assuming.

Plate gets them through all of that.

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

You are making some very huge assumptions. Switzerland hasn't engaged in war in centuries eight, but they maintain one of the most effective military forces in the world. To assume there are no military forces on Scadrial is beyond Naive.

Switzerland is also surrounded by warlike Nations, the North hasn't seen any conflict amounting to more than gang activity, dropping even moddern police into the battle of Agincourt would not change the outcome, they would die.

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

Floating platforms vs actual airships I'll take air ships. Magic swords vs guns and explosives I'll take the guns. There is a reason why the saying of bringing a knife to a gun fight was created. Magic healing that can be stopped by a simple bullet and if placed correctly lead to instant death is barely an advantage. Then an instant death weapon against Rosharans built right into their own magic should give all of you pause.

It took humans on earth 33 years to go from powered flight to the moon, there are several years between KoW and AoL, either fourth bridge becomes powered flight, (I have already disscused perpetual motion earlier on this thread) or the airships of the south are far less impressive, either way the advantage is gone, and gravtiation orders remove any challange to Rosharan air supperiority.

And Scadrial has no public knowledge of Hemalurgy, and even if they did, landing three to four hits directly on the same spot, that can be protected with ease without getting your soul severed would require protagonist levels of plot armor.

And on top of that anti-investiture is in every system.

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

I considered addressing your whole rant, but I am disappointing that you didn't really think through your responses. There are no anti-mists as of now so you cannot assume there will be. Odium is trapped regardless. Really I lost patience with the rest of your rant because it seemed as if your own bias and desperation fueled it not your usual rational arguments. You are sounding more like Frustration than yourself. Oh and you can't count on suppressor fields since those must be keyed to the specific kind of investiture and Roshar doesn't know that nor can they easily discover it, but some metalborn can.

There are no Nicrocil compounders now and you cannot assume there will be.

There is no Scadrian military armed with guns and you cannot assume there will be.

There are no thug/soulbearers and you cannot assume there will be.

There WILL be Anti-mist, why would they look at this Stormlight like substence, something the pure tones are in and not say, "hey we should make anti-this for our war effort" ?

And Singers are geared towards tones/rhythms something you once again convieniently forgot.

 

I'm making this big so you might actually read it, Ad Hominem will not help you.

https://effectiviology.com/ad-hominem-fallacy/

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

1st Duralumin is an alloy of aluminum so might be immune to steel pushes.

key word there is 'might'

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

As it stands if aluminum is thick enough it can't be cut by even Nightblood. See oathbringer. Brandon has been quoted as saying that any thickness cannot be cut by a shardblade. Most of the fused weapons are also aluminum and never get cut and are capable of killing radiants.

Aluminum only resists shardblades, with sufficent force it will buckle, it isn't a cure all

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

Aluminum does hemalugically take away power. If Wax had shot Miles with aluminum bullets they would likely have killed him if they hit him in the heart or head since it also neutralizes invested healing in at least the region of penetration. And that is where we get the problem. It might not penetrate shardplate because of how soft it is.

aluminum is also increadiblhy exspencive, that's like making bullets out of solid gold, more excpencive actually.

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

Radiants are OP, and like Superman have their form of Kryptonite. Finish the Radiant novels then decided. I am in the vast minority in thinking that metalborn have more than a passing chance in a conflict with Radiants. I think the key to that is compounding not strait allomancy or feruchemy.

No they don't as stated before Brandon HATES Kryptonite type weaknesses, neither aluminum nor anti-light will fix Scadrial's problems

Edited May 26, 2021 by Frustration

[The Technovore]

1 hour ago, BenduLuke said:

I am not contesting that the two planet would need to be internally  united, but what is the condition of each once they unite. At this point from my perspective Scadrial will likely resolve any differences peacefully, but Roshar is looking like it is going to have an apocalyptic war with spren dying on both sides because of Navai's discoveries.

Second sentence is in direct contradiction of the word "united" and your first sentence. The condition of each planet once they unite is that they'll be united.

Between that and the ad hominem attacks, I think you've run out of patience for valid arguments. There is nothing here you're saying that you haven't said before, and that goes for most of everyone's posts here. Most of the suppositions here are unconfirmed, unsupported, and likely won't be confirmed anytime soon. No one can actively disprove the other, try as they like. You clearly read the books differently than everyone else here does. Let's stop the useless arguing and be done.

Edit: Admitting bias in a discussion is not as productive as you think. Bias, by definition, is a colored lens that may obscure facts and objective reality. Admitting that you're biased while refusing to change it, and claiming that you're only biased because everyone else is, does nothing to combat bias, but does a LOT to turn a good argument into a rusting cremshow. If you want Scadrial to be fairly represented, then fairly represent it. The more you reach for ways to make it seem favorable, the more clownish it looks. It's a lot like plastic surgery.

Edited May 26, 2021 by The Technovore

[therunner]

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

I am not contesting that the two planet would need to be internally  united, but what is the condition of each once they unite. At this point from my perspective Scadrial will likely resolve any differences peacefully, but Roshar is looking like it is going to have an apocalyptic war with spren dying on both sides because of Navai's discoveries.

City states that are on the verge of being unified to create a stronger trade alliance to work with the south.

City states that are not on the verge of being united, but instead on the verge of being splintered. You have it completely backwards, Elendel Basin was united in the past, and is becoming increasingly splintered as other large cities dislike the level of political and economical control Elendel has, they are becoming more splintered not less.

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

You can also expect that both sides will adopt each others tech and weapons and even some of each others magic. Rosharan's probably wont make medallions instead they will steal them and yes they will probably learn to use hemalurgy, but that could create more of a disadvantage. While Scadrians will quickly steal and adopt Rosharan fabrials which will supercharge their own metalborn Realmatics advancement and some will bond some left over Spren. However none of that will likely happen until after a first conflict between them.

Rosharan can steal and use medallions, but Scadrians have nothing to use to fuel Rosharan fabrials (they have not stormlight, and no way to harness mists that we know of), so those would be useless to them.

And why are spren seceding, but not some Scadrians?

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Another advantage Scadiral will have is in weapons development and production. Scadrial already has an industrial mass production technology while Roshar is still one off craftsman based with no mass production capability. For now Scadrian tech meshes with Scadrian magic better than Rosharan magic meshes with Rosharan Tech. Scadrial is in a postioin to produce Fabrials than Roshar is in a position to use Hemalurgy or produce Medallions. Also Rosharan magic has an inborn instant kill to fused and radiants in the magic itself that when Scadrians realize it will doom Radiants and Fused because it can kill their spren outright. At the moment their is no equivalent in Metalborn magic.

10-15 years from RoW, we shall see. But Roshar still has soulcasting, which is more flexible process and at the beginning faster than anything Scadrial has (because they need to mine, refine, transport, manufacture, and transport again, but Roshar can skip 4 of those steps).

Scadrial is in worse position to produce their fabrials than Roshar is, Scadrian fabrials require godmetal to work, Rosharan do not. And Scadrial can try to make Rosharan fabrials all they like, without spren around and without stormlight they wont work.

Scadrial has no way to produce anti-light at the moment, and they would first need to get their hands on stormlight/voidlight. And Singers are attuned to hearing Tones and Rhythms.

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Scadrial already has machine guns and timing devices so yes flack and thousands of bullets. Flack does not need to be altitude dependent, it can be contact and timing dependent.

I also don't assume 1 radiant but dozens with no cover dropping into massed fire from cover.

Machine guns that are at best accurate to ~500 meters when properly set up (and firing vertically upwards is not exactly easy), and you would still need dozens of them set up, and again spren shield. And yes flack needs timing, Scadrial has no way to make it contact dependent and timing would be problematic against Radiants with gravitation as they are far faster, maneuverable and smaller than any plane.

They have spren shields (impenetrable), and potentially plate or half-shard armor; the spren shield protect them directly from the front and partially from the sides (with sides being more exposed the lower they are, but they are also much faster at that point). They are far from having no cover.

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Only windrunners have reverse lashings and they have never been tested against high velocity projectiles so off target may be mm's not feet or yards. In addition reverse lashing needs something physical to draw the projectiles they don't just work in open air and shardshields cannot be lashed.

Reverse lashing will actually work well against bullets (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3523 the wob has a typo i think, as full lashing on bullet in flight makes no sense), I already made this argument, if the bullet is affected for ~0.05 second, powerful reverse lashing (like the one that ripped of Pursuers head, which was ~100 *7m/s^2) would give the bullet speed of ~35m/s in that direction, and it would move in that direction by 0.88 meters, enough to make someone miss. The new direction of bullet would be vector sum of original velocity and the one from reverse lashing.

So yeah, Reverse lashing would curve bullet paths by meters or more, and since it imparts velocity, they would move in the new direction. As for physical, either imbue stone and drop it (per Raboniel or Leshwi radiants in past could create homing projectiles, which would require this), or hold large boulder ahead of you as you are dropping and reverse lash it.

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Radiants would be under fire from the minute they come into range. They wouldn't know to go so high until after the first engagement, nor is it realistic that they would have 100's of kg of Rock 2 to 3 km's high. Even if they could accuracy from that height would be extremely low especially against a scattered force under cover.

They could easily go higher than range of Scadrian guns, and if this is first encounter Scadrial definitely does not have aluminum bullets (why would they waste such expansive metal?), so they easily heal.

And it is realistic that each Radiant could have a few hundreds' of kg worth of rock 2 km high, they already routinely lash people 10's of km, so they can do it easily with Stormlight they usually have, every direction is the same for lashing. And for accuracy, again there used to be a way to use Surges to create homing projectiles, not that much accuracy needed (it is probably some application of Reverse Lashing, but it might require some other Radiant). And rock lashed down 10 times would be moving at nearly sonic speed, that would be quite an impact (~80 kg of TNT if my math is right).

So are Scadrians encamped with machine guns and artillery, or are they scattered? Pick one, because hitting scattered force would be much easier for Radiants (fewer opponents with guns to shield from).

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

You are making some very huge assumptions. Switzerland hasn't engaged in war in centuries eight, but they maintain one of the most effective military forces in the world. To assume there are no military forces on Scadrial is beyond Naive.

Do they? And even if they truly are as effective as you are assuming, they had the luxury of seeing and studying conflicts of other, something Scadrial could not do.

And there clearly are no military forces on NoScad at least, the only one building ships with guns (i.e. military equipment) is one nobleman along with Research institute, not military (and every is laughing at him).

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Floating platforms vs actual airships I'll take air ships. Magic swords vs guns and explosives I'll take the guns. There is a reason why the saying of bringing a knife to a gun fight was created. Magic healing that can be stopped by a simple bullet and if placed correctly lead to instant death is barely an advantage. Then an instant death weapon against Rosharans built right into their own magic should give all of you pause.

It took Roshar a year to go from proof-of-concept to a flying platform, and they don't have magic that makes objects lighter (which would simplify engineering). Era 2 is 10-15 years from this point. And Scadrian airships are not that much different, they just have propellers and are built out of metal. And of course Roshar has Radiants, i.e. in plate equivalent of fighter jets.

The healing cannot be stopped by a bullet, but only by aluminum bullet, important distinction. Same for instant death (unless someone remove the bullet of course, then they heal back if done fast enough (~10s of seconds?)).

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

I considered addressing your whole rant, but I am disappointing that you didn't really think through your responses. There are no anti-mists as of now so you cannot assume there will be. Odium is trapped regardless. Really I lost patience with the rest of your rant because it seemed as if your own bias and desperation fueled it not your usual rational arguments. You are sounding more like Frustration than yourself. Oh and you can't count on suppressor fields since those must be keyed to the specific kind of investiture and Roshar doesn't know that nor can they easily discover it, but some metalborn can.

Ad hominem will get you nowhere.

There are mists (gaseous investiture, like Stormlight) hence there could be anti-mists, not so difficult extrapolation (and far more realistic then your assumptions on A- and F-aluminum).

Odium can be freed if needed, so I am not sure why he would be trapped regardless? Why could Dalinar not free him, it is within his power, and when going to war why not?

I already addressed how they could key suppresor field (kidnapping and torture of A-pewter mistings, and F-gold ferrings, or field experiments) but I guess you did not bother read it. So they could get them up and running quite fast I think.

And really what parts of my post were quote ' rant because it seemed as if your own bias and desperation fueled it '?

1. The part were I pointed out that each side in Rosharan war is larger then even united Scadrial?
2. The part were I pointed out that Thunderclasts can appear anywhere, they just need to dig (or have stone soulcast for them)?
3. The part were I asked why does Scadrial have reinforced aluminum boxes the size of Thunderclasts in every camp (and how can they move them)?
4. The part were I pointed out Coalition could get Odium to join them by releasing him under the condition that he join the war?
5. The part were I pointed out that there are 300 windrunners, and Teft swore an 4th oath sooner than Kal?
6. The part were I pointed out that 3rd Oath Windrunner can kill Mistborn in open battle (per Brandon and at that point we have only seen 3rd oath windrunner, https://wob.coppermind.net/events/4/#e1432), and asked you which metalborn is stronger than mistborn, if they can kill Radiants?
7. The part were I pointed out that since Bondsmiths manipulate Connection, the can use that to remove Connection between user and metalmind?
8. The part were I pointed out that nothing about A-aluminum or F-aluminum suggests they can pick and choose what to keep and what to remove, and that since Hemalurgy relies on stapling things onto soul, it would get removed wholesale?

Which of these is the 'biased and desperate rant'? I just want to know for future reference, so that I can avoid being perceived like that.

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Thanks for admitting that the ultimate metalborn will defeat any Radiant or Fused, even though I think you are wrong about that as well. I think it is a toss up who would win and depend on circumstances.

I think I said this like 30 pages back already, and you will find that everyone agrees that if there is anything like Kryptonian in Cosmere, it is Fullborn.

And for curiosity, how would Radiant/Fused beat Fullborn (outside of those two scenarios I outlined)? Because honestly, I don't understand how you can on one hand say that many metalborn (some not even compounders) could beat Radiant, but then turn around and claim that Radiant vs Fullborn is toss up, because Fullborn is far stronger than any other metalborn.

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

1st Duralumin is an alloy of aluminum so might be immune to steel pushes.

It isn't, Vin pushes/pulls on it in WoA I think. Only some alloys of aluminum are immune to steel pushes.

Quote

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

As it stands if aluminum is thick enough it can't be cut by even Nightblood. See oathbringer. Brandon has been quoted as saying that any thickness cannot be cut by a shardblade. Most of the fused weapons are also aluminum and never get cut and are capable of killing radiants.

Actually, Brandon never said that any thickness cannot be cut, in fact it is still point of contention (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/115/#e1442). It definitely stops the magical cutting part, but it might get cut if it is thin enough (I mean aluminum foil does not have that much strength).

10 hours ago, BenduLuke said:

Aluminum does hemalugically take away power. If Wax had shot Miles with aluminum bullets they would likely have killed him if they hit him in the heart or head since it also neutralizes invested healing in at least the region of penetration. And that is where we get the problem. It might not penetrate shardplate because of how soft it is.

Hemalurgy require knowledge and Intent, and Wax had neither.

Edited May 27, 2021 by therunner
speling

[Gisaku75]

This is an example of how Navani's ships would not be a major threat to Scadrial's army. As Wax flees in the flying ship, he is worried that the Set is equipped with artillery precisely because he is afraid of being shot down. At best they could be useful as transports for the radiant. Even so, they would require an enormous amount of Stromlight to be concealed. But once identified, it could be easily torn apart.

And this is why even indestructible shields are useless against a modern army. All the speculations that are made are based on the misconception that Radiants can easily go into close combat with Scadrial's forces. Because that's what a medieval army does. But a modern army is based on ranged combat and not massing troops in one visible spot. Scadrial has a longer firing range and an ability to spot targets at much greater distances. By the time a Windrunner spots a firing post, two others have already targeted it.

[therunner]

1 hour ago, Gisaku75 said:

This is an example of how Navani's ships would not be a major threat to Scadrial's army. As Wax flees in the flying ship, he is worried that the Set is equipped with artillery precisely because he is afraid of being shot down. At best they could be useful as transports for the radiant. Even so, they would require an enormous amount of Stromlight to be concealed. But once identified, it could be easily torn apart.

And this is why even indestructible shields are useless against a modern army. All the speculations that are made are based on the misconception that Radiants can easily go into close combat with Scadrial's forces. Because that's what a medieval army does. But a modern army is based on ranged combat and not massing troops in one visible spot. Scadrial has a longer firing range and an ability to spot targets at much greater distances. By the time a Windrunner spots a firing post, two others have already targeted it.

The Bridge Four is very different from Zepellin, so long as fabrials are undamaged, it remains in the air. But I do agree that it would not be very useful, other than as transport (at least the way it is build now).

So per the second video the main issue of the shield is that it is far too heavy, which is non-issue with spren-shield, which would be no more heavy than the spren blade. The second issue is that the use had no hand free for fighting, which again is not issue if the goal of shield is to just protect user to close distance before changing the shield into spren. The third issue is still present, but since Radiant with gravitation can easily move at ~30 meters per second, they are not that easy to hit from the side.

Windrunners lashings can have longer firing ranges (it is just a question of infusing enough stormlight), and can easily fly outside of range of guns (as was discussed on the last page), between entering range of Scadrian guns and landing in the middle of them would be about ~6 seconds to hit them and since they would be in the air, the flanks are not that exposed. And they could lash stones to soften up Scadrian positions first.

[Frustration]

On fourth bridge being inferior to Scadrian Airships, I have a workable design that makes them much faster and more maneuverable.

First contruct a number of perpetual motion machines, i.e. conjoined Fabrial with different sized gems held inside the highstorm.

Add a gem to connect to the aircraft you wish to build.

Then inside the ship rig up a missive version of the gauntlet Kaladin used.

And you have yourself a plane more maneuverable than a modern fighter jet.

[therunner]

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

On fourth bridge being inferior to Scadrian Airships, I have a workable design that makes them much faster and more maneuverable.

First contruct a number of perpetual motion machines, i.e. conjoined Fabrial with different sized gems held inside the highstorm.

Add a gem to connect to the aircraft you wish to build.

Then inside the ship rig up a missive version of the gauntlet Kaladin used.

And you have yourself a plane more maneuverable than a modern fighter jet.

How would you anchor the gems to the highstorm? It moves across the continent very fast.

[Frustration]

Just now, therunner said:

How would you anchor the gems to the highstorm? It moves across the continent very fast.

Honestly I'd be more worried about it moving fater than the Highstorm, with both gems connected to the same device it would increase in speed the whole time.

You would need perfectly porportioned gems but I think it would work, admittedly we don't get enough information for me to be able to calculate if it would work.

Or alternativly, set up the drop platforms Kal uses inside a ship with different sized gems inside it, use the drop to start moving and carefully controll the excelleration.

Either way you have a far faster airship than So.Scadrial has.

[The Technovore]

6 hours ago, Gisaku75 said:

This is an example of how Navani's ships would not be a major threat to Scadrial's army. As Wax flees in the flying ship, he is worried that the Set is equipped with artillery precisely because he is afraid of being shot down. At best they could be useful as transports for the radiant. Even so, they would require an enormous amount of Stromlight to be concealed. But once identified, it could be easily torn apart.

And this is why even indestructible shields are useless against a modern army. All the speculations that are made are based on the misconception that Radiants can easily go into close combat with Scadrial's forces. Because that's what a medieval army does. But a modern army is based on ranged combat and not massing troops in one visible spot. Scadrial has a longer firing range and an ability to spot targets at much greater distances. By the time a Windrunner spots a firing post, two others have already targeted it.

Fair, but we're not talking about Era 3 with a "Modern Army" we're talking about Era 2. Era 2 is pre-WWI tech mixed with the Wild West. (which era ended in 1920). WWI was a war of hard-learned lessons. It was a war where people moved from "big armies running at each other" to more tactical strategies because finally their tech made conventional warfare untenable. The supposition that Radiant's can't easily get into close combat against Era 2 Scadrial that hasn't had a war in 300 years which--isn't even going to do as well as the French did in early WWI--is a misconception. It's also inaccurate to say that Radiant-favoring arguments have been reliant on them getting into close combat. We've already demonstrated Windrunners and Skybreakers would be amazing living artillery at range, and Elsecallers are already onscreen soulcasting at range. Heck--if SA 5 features a Dustbringer or Skybreaker using Division at range, this conversation is over for Scadrians because all the steel compounders Scadrial can spike together aren't doing jack against a Skybreaker with Plate and Blade incinerating people both at a touch and from half-a-mile in the air. 

 

Thing is, Roshar's layman soldier is stuck in the middle ages, but the Radiants are already fighting in the modern age. They lack guns, but Windrunners possess the super maneuverability of fighter jets (probably more agile then them tbh), and the potential for artillery power that we rely on nuclear fission to generate. Era 2 """flak""" (bullets) isn't going to do jack *squat* against a modern jet because a modern jet can practically fly circles around those installations.

S v R would be a WWI experience for both armies. Let's be SUPER DUPER GENEROUS and say that Scadrial gets a nice standing army of fully-trained and armed riflemen up. They even have horseless carriages (lol) designed to hold their officers and transport goods. And hey! They reverse engineered the Set's artillery and with Kelsier's knowledge of hemalurgy and a ton of rotary guns they've got a really good shot at conquering Roshar. Unified Scadrial is looking awesome! I mean sure they don't know the first thing about running a war, seeing at this is their first one, but I mean hey the Survivor's here and he's totally good at detailed logistics and organization and totally didn't have that one incident where he tried to set up a rebellion and it got completely wiped out. They'll be fine! First war in 300 years is sure to be an unqualified success!

Then, they find some incredible plot device that lets them get to Roshar and set up in the Frostlands (the part of Roshar's Cognitive that's closest to Scadrial's Cognitive). Alethi army meets them. They absolutely slaughter those fools. Look at them, lining up with their spears like cavemen, then dying in a firestorm of lead and gunpowder. Excellent! Victory is nigh at hand! They have big guns, plenty of canned goods to feed the army, they're establishing a supply chain, and those riflemen make those spearmen look like nothing. A wonderful first day. On to Kholinar!

Then, overnight, someone came in and soulcasted all the food to sludge, half the ammo to sludge, all the artillery to sludge. Oops! Turns out the Lightweavers got in and absolutely rekted the place. Where were the Seekers? They should've been able to detect the illusions. Turns out they didn't know what they were detecting until they got too close and ended up with a Sprenblade through their neck.

Then, the next day, the Windrunners and Dustbringers show up, with an army of stormform singers.

The riflemen set up in their lines and lay down fire, mowing away the incoming singers. But, they're now hungry, low on ammo, and without artillery. Then their metal-adorned front lines start getting fried by lightning. Never fear, the compounders should be able to make short work of the singers! (any they do, because of course they would.)
Then a 100kg stone slams into the camp at near-sonic speeds and wipes out a whole company. Then, more start dropping. Instead of a nice offensive against savages like the Scadrians expected, it's chaos and smoke and blood. Then the fully plated Windrunners drop from the sky and summon their blades, dueling metalborn and mowing down riflemen. Dustbringers bring wholesale destruction and cataclysm (see: The Kalak prologue in WoK). Here and there some Radiants drop, but the offensive rapidly finds themselves not out-gunned, yet still completely overwhelmed because for every dead Radiant you have some 300-2k dead troops just from the bombardment. 

Forget the fact that their blades are cleaving through metalborn left and right because Coinshots only give Windrunners a nice challenge and the Pewterarms don't have enough aluminum armor to save them. Forget that those Leecher cubes are nice and all but when the stormform crash through the front lines that's not to save you from frying. Forget that Scadrians are not as battle-hardened as Rosharans or the Alethi (who they'd have to deal with first because geography.) and their officers would be soft-skinned nobleman while the Rosharan officers are actual rusting soldiers that know how to keep their men in line. No. Just the bombardment and sabotage would break them in Week 1.

The first day of war, neither planet would know what to expect. The first battle would be a bloodbath. Would be a tragedy. And ultimately, if Roshar had the home advantage, Roshar would hold its ground just fine.

Scadrial comes again. This time they've used hemalurgy to its full extent. If anyone knows how to make hemalurgy non-lethal, it would be the SoScads, and Kelsier would wrangle that knowledge into NorScad's hands. Every Ferring is a Compounder. Every Misting has their complimentary power. Tin and Pewter. Iron and Steel. Chromium and Nicrosil. They have ettmetal weapons for explosive power and for Leecher grenades. They have anti-Radiant tactics. They're giving their metalborn aluminum weapons and armor, and the koloss they've recruited have some lovely sledgehammers for cracking open Radiants that get too close. They now know better than to line up nicely so the Windrunners can drop rocks on them. Roshar then is going to start sweating a little.

Roshar would learn its own lessons, and fast. The war would evolve into attrition, espionage, guerilla tactics, and assassination and political intrigue. The casualties for the first few months would be catastrophic for both sides. Ultimately what wins the war is knowledge and R&D. Unified Roshar has the advantage of ALL the knowledge of the Ancient Fused, the genius of Navani and her army of scholars, and all the stormlight they could possibly want as they set about to discovering Surge Fabrials and making their Airships way better. To be fair, Scadrial has its fair share of geniuses, and a unified front for them is also going to mean impressive strides in weapons and magi-tech. 

Scadrial has the advantage in engineering and earth tech, but Roshar has the edge on Realmatic knowledge *already*, 5+ years before AoL. I hold that Roshar and it magic users would hold just fine. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by The Technovore
Edit: turns out the zeppelin was not post-WWI :|

[Bigmikey357]

43 minutes ago, The Technovore said:

Fair, but we're not talking about Era 3 with a "Modern Army" we're talking about Era 2. Era 2 is pre-WWI tech mixed with the Wild West. (which era ended in 1920). WWI was a war of hard-learned lessons. It was a war where people moved from "big armies running at each other" to more tactical strategies because finally their tech made conventional warfare untenable. The supposition that Radiant's can't easily get into close combat against Era 2 Scadrial that hasn't had a war in 300 years which--isn't even going to do as well as the French did in early WWI--is a misconception. It's also inaccurate to say that Radiant-favoring arguments have been reliant on them getting into close combat. We've already demonstrated Windrunners and Skybreakers would be amazing living artillery at range, and Elsecallers are already onscreen soulcasting at range. Heck--if SA 5 features a Dustbringer or Skybreaker using Division at range, this conversation is over for Scadrians because all the steel compounders Scadrial can spike together aren't doing jack against a Skybreaker with Plate and Blade incinerating people both at a touch and from half-a-mile in the air. 

 

Thing is, Roshar's layman soldier is stuck in the middle ages, but the Radiants are already fighting in the modern age. They lack guns, but Windrunners possess the super maneuverability of fighter jets (probably more agile then them tbh), and the potential for artillery power that we rely on nuclear fission to generate. Era 2 """flak""" (bullets) isn't going to do jack *squat* against a modern jet because a modern jet can practically fly circles around those installations.

S v R would be a WWI experience for both armies. Let's be SUPER DUPER GENEROUS and say that Scadrial gets a nice standing army of fully-trained and armed riflemen up. They even have horseless carriages (lol) designed to hold their officers and transport goods. And hey! They reverse engineered the Set's artillery and with Kelsier's knowledge of hemalurgy and a ton of rotary guns they've got a really good shot at conquering Roshar. Unified Scadrial is looking awesome! I mean sure they don't know the first thing about running a war, seeing at this is their first one, but I mean hey the Survivor's here and he's totally good at detailed logistics and organization and totally didn't have that one incident where he tried to set up a rebellion and it got completely wiped out. They'll be fine! First war in 300 years is sure to be an unqualified success!

Then, they find some incredible plot device that lets them get to Roshar and set up in the Frostlands (the part of Roshar's Cognitive that's closest to Scadrial's Cognitive). Alethi army meets them. They absolutely slaughter those fools. Look at them, lining up with their spears like cavemen, then dying in a firestorm of lead and gunpowder. Excellent! Victory is nigh at hand! They have big guns, plenty of canned goods to feed the army, they're establishing a supply chain, and those riflemen make those spearmen look like nothing. A wonderful first day. On to Kholinar!

Then, overnight, someone came in and soulcasted all the food to sludge, half the ammo to sludge, all the artillery to sludge. Oops! Turns out the Lightweavers got in and absolutely rekted the place. Where were the Seekers? They should've been able to detect the illusions. Turns out they didn't know what they were detecting until they got too close and ended up with a Sprenblade through their neck.

Then, the next day, the Windrunners and Dustbringers show up, with an army of stormform singers.

The riflemen set up in their lines and lay down fire, mowing away the incoming singers. But, they're now hungry, low on ammo, and without artillery. Then their metal-adorned front lines start getting fried by lightning. Never fear, the compounders should be able to make short work of the singers! (any they do, because of course they would.)
Then a 100kg stone slams into the camp at near-sonic speeds and wipes out a whole company. Then, more start dropping. Instead of a nice offensive against savages like the Scadrians expected, it's chaos and smoke and blood. Then the fully plated Windrunners drop from the sky and summon their blades, dueling metalborn and mowing down riflemen. Dustbringers bring wholesale destruction and cataclysm (see: The Kalak prologue in WoK). Here and there some Radiants drop, but the offensive rapidly finds themselves not out-gunned, yet still completely overwhelmed because for every dead Radiant you have some 300-2k dead troops just from the bombardment. 

Forget the fact that their blades are cleaving through metalborn left and right because Coinshots only give Windrunners a nice challenge and the Pewterarms don't have enough aluminum armor to save them. Forget that those Leecher cubes are nice and all but when the stormform crash through the front lines that's not to save you from frying. Forget that Scadrians are not as battle-hardened as Rosharans or the Alethi (who they'd have to deal with first because geography.) and their officers would be soft-skinned nobleman while the Rosharan officers are actual rusting soldiers that know how to keep their men in line. No. Just the bombardment and sabotage would break them in Week 1.

The first day of war, neither planet would know what to expect. The first battle would be a bloodbath. Would be a tragedy. And ultimately, if Roshar had the home advantage, Roshar would hold its ground just fine.

Scadrial comes again. This time they've used hemalurgy to its full extent. If anyone knows how to make hemalurgy non-lethal, it would be the SoScads, and Kelsier would wrangle that knowledge into NorScad's hands. Every Ferring is a Compounder. Every Misting has their complimentary power. Tin and Pewter. Iron and Steel. Chromium and Nicrosil. They have ettmetal weapons for explosive power and for Leecher grenades. They have anti-Radiant tactics. They're giving their metalborn aluminum weapons and armor, and the koloss they've recruited have some lovely sledgehammers for cracking open Radiants that get too close. They now know better than to line up nicely so the Windrunners can drop rocks on them. Roshar then is going to start sweating a little.

Roshar would learn its own lessons, and fast. The war would evolve into attrition, espionage, guerilla tactics, and assassination and political intrigue. The casualties for the first few months would be catastrophic for both sides. Ultimately what wins the war is knowledge and R&D. Unified Roshar has the advantage of ALL the knowledge of the Ancient Fused, the genius of Navani and her army of scholars, and all the stormlight they could possibly want as they set about to discovering Surge Fabrials and making their Airships way better. To be fair, Scadrial has its fair share of geniuses, and a unified front for them is also going to mean impressive strides in weapons and magi-tech. 

Scadrial has the advantage in engineering and earth tech, but Roshar has the edge on Realmatic knowledge *already*, 5+ years before AoL. I hold that Roshar and it magic users would hold just fine. 

I can't give this enough thumbs up. How do you think it looks if Scadrial had the home field advantage? 

[STAG]

I’m pretty sure scadrial wins automatically for one reason. Chromium compounding.

[Halyo_Alex]

4 minutes ago, STAG said:

I’m pretty sure scadrial wins automatically for one reason. Chromium compounding.

Allow me to debunk this with one reason: Enlightened Truthwatchers.

[Frustration]

41 minutes ago, STAG said:

I’m pretty sure scadrial wins automatically for one reason. Chromium compounding.

That's a non-issue

1. There is MAYBE one chromium Compounder
2. Even if there was knowing what needs to be done and being able to do it are very different things.

[STAG]

Fair, in reality, if we’re talking both sides have their normal access to recourses needed for Allomancy/surgebinding I think the fact that radiants can easily take many bullets, while most allomancers/feruchemists cannot is a major factor. Do we include heralds in this fight?

Edited May 27, 2021 by STAG

[Frustration]

35 minutes ago, STAG said:

Fair, in reality, if we’re talking both sides have their normal access to recourses needed for Allomancy/surgebinding I think the fact that radiants can easily take many bullets, while most allomancers/feruchemists cannot is a major factor. Do we include heralds in this fight?

haven't since page about page six but you can bring them back if you really want

[STAG]

Also, if scadrial gets koloss I think Roshar gets chasmfiends.

Edited May 27, 2021 by STAG

[Frustration]

Just now, STAG said:

Also, if scadrial gets koloss I think Roshar gets chasmfiend.

Greatshells have not been considered, good point

[STAG]

Maybe this is something that is widely known, but can mistborn push and pull shard metals?

[Frustration]

Just now, STAG said:

Maybe this is something that is widely known, but can mistborn push and pull shard metals?

No, they can not.

Edited May 27, 2021 by Frustration

[DoctaDajman]

18 hours ago, Frustration said:

No, they can not.

This would also apply to any mental allomancy?   Doesn't shard plate totally protect from a push and pull of emotions as well?   And how does shardplate react to connection manipulation?  If it protects from one should it also protect from the other?   Is shardplate like wearing an aluminum lined hat?  Would aluminum protect a wearer from an attack of connection?   (From the bondsmith points made earlier in the discussion.)   

From all of this thread it just seems like its less surgebinding vs allomantic arts and simply shardplate and blades >>> all else.  There certainly doesn't seem to be much rock paper scissors when shardplate is involved.  

[Frustration]

47 minutes ago, DoctaDajman said:

This would also apply to any mental allomancy?   Doesn't shard plate totally protect from a push and pull of emotions as well?   And how does shardplate react to connection manipulation?  If it protects from one should it also protect from the other?   Is shardplate like wearing an aluminum lined hat?  Would aluminum protect a wearer from an attack of connection?   (From the bondsmith points made earlier in the discussion.)   

From all of this thread it just seems like its less surgebinding vs allomantic arts and simply shardplate and blades >>> all else.  There certainly doesn't seem to be much rock paper scissors when shardplate is involved.  

Shardplate would block emotional allomancy, whether it would block connection attacks remains to be seen, in order to form a connection a Bondsmith needs contact so aluminum is a moot point there.

[The Technovore]

(EDIT: Since @Bigmikey357 asked what I think of a Rosharan offensive...)
Okay, this should be fun. The tl;dr of this thing is that Roshar is going to have a much more difficult time invading Scadrial than Scadrial will invading Roshar.

 

Here's some assumptions:

1. Harmony isn't going to be snapping 16% of the population.

2. United Scadrial (Let's say The Survivor returned in his glory right after BoM just like his church said he would, and helped unite the continents.) Southern Scadrial... we don't know much about, except they have very advanced metalborn tech and they have five different nations. I don't think its too much of a stretch to assume that SoScad has about triple the population of NorScad, making Scadrial's total Pop about 60 million versus 15 million of just NorScad.

3. United Roshar. Somehow, someway, an incredible amount of plot happened and Odium quit dividing the peoples of Roshar and now the Singers (and Fused) and humans (and Radiants and Heralds) are living happily together and have been for the ~7-10 years that passed in between RoW's ending and BoM's ending.

 

Now, since I gave Scadrial the "gimme" of a fully-fledged standing army, and still do, I'm going to give Rosharans the "gimme" of the discovery of gunpowder, basic gunsmithing, and crossbows. This shouldn't be too implausible since a United Roshar would have a whole 7+ years to share developments and secrets and engineer new things together.

This brings the Rosharan forces from the Medieval Age to the Napoleonic Age, with simplistic muskets and colorful uniforms, mixed with the simple line-up-and-march "tactics" that they'd be used to. I'm also giving them the "gimme" of being able to transport stormlight easily off-world.

 

Now, how well does a Rosharan army do attacking Scadrial?

Spoiler

Not great, to be honest. To be fair, they don't need to deal with costly supply lines, since the spren had plenty of large perfect gems that make wonderful batteries for Soulcasters and Fabrials. So, they line up in the Rosharan Cognitive below the Frostlands, near Thaylenah, and head into Scadrial. We'll handwave how they venture through the mists to get to Harmony's perpendicularity, but somehow with their investiture they're able to do it. Maybe they craft a bunch of boats on the spot to float over the mists idk. 

They make it to Harmony's Perp, which I think (I may be wrong) is in NorScad, south of New Seran (there is a broadsheet in SoS that mentions a clear blue pool of water where an adventure so a Southern Scadrian. Obviously, it could be nothing, but that's where I'm sticking the Rosharan assault right now.) And appear in the Southern Roughs. They march for New Seran, but as soon as they leave the mountains they run against the Scadrian army. 

Now, the Scadrian army has better guns. Semi-automatic revolvers and rifles, gatling guns, better bullets that don't rely on musket and shot, etc. Would they have better tactics than the Rosharans? I'm tempted to say no, because blowhard noble officers that know nothing about actual combat. The Scadrians would make some blunders. At the worst, they'd be using napoleonic tactics too. But, their guns are better, far more accurate, and reload faster and easier. The Rosharans are outgunned. 

Without even considering magic users, a Rosharan musketeer army would get team-wiped by a Scadrian rifleman division with a couple gatlings. All the metalborn just make things worse with their super-soldier steel compounders, their super-tactician zinc compounders (which at the least would make sure Scadrial learns quickly from early mistakes, and at best completely revamp Scadrian tactics), and their super-medic gold compounders filling up gold medallions.

 

Now, let's bring up some magic questions that can't easily be answered by what we know.

Can the Rosharans bring their Radiants, and Singers?

Can they bring their Fused and Thunderclasts?

Can they open up Perpendicularities with Bondsmiths, or if not, with Ishar's Honorblade?

 

Let's consider three potential combinations. They will be listed as such: (No/No/No) (Yes/No/No) (Yes/Yes/No) (Yes/Yes/No)

(No/No/No)

Spoiler

Result: Overwhelming Scadrian Victory. The Rosharans straight up will not be able to hold ground against the superior firepower of the Scadrians. Their musketeers will be target practice for both the enemy repeating rifles and the hordes of koloss that flank them and tear through their ranks causing chaos. 

They'd be pushed all the way back to the mountains, then back to the perpendicularity, then back to Roshar where the Scadrians would be dealing with my last hypothetical. Heaven help them if Kelsier and Marsh themselves enter the fight. Heaven help them if the Bands of Mourning come into the fight.

 

 

(Yes/No/No)

Spoiler

Result: Hard-Fought Scadrian Victory

Good News: You have Surgebinders with plate and blade. Bad News: Fueling them is difficult.

The supplies of Stormlight coming from Roshar take weeks, and the Windrunners would eat it all up in a day if the officers let them. The Surges change the game significantly for the Rosharans, even with their Radiants on limited resources. A few Dustbringers and Skybreakers, and Elsecallers can cause serious artillery trouble for the Scadrian forces, and if the Scadrian's blunder on tactics for their first few battles, the Rosharans would even be able to see victory!

But the Rosharans wouldn't win a single battle without Radiant help, and every Radiant that dies further weakens them. They can try threatening the cities with some Skybreaker/Dustbringer bombardment. They can try assassinations with Lightweavers but there's a lot of Seekers and Kandra that could out them. 

The bad news is all the things they can't do. They can't send Gravitation Radiants to strike at Elendel at long-distance. In fact, they can't commit Radiants to the front lines at all. Healing takes up too much Stormlight, so they'd be purely staying behind, using Surges as support powers while the musketeers try to hold ground. They wouldn't even be using Regrowth for the soldiers, except very limitedly. Singers would augment the musketeer forces well, but ultimately a warform is going to take a bullet just as well as a koloss would. (Hint: Not well.) 

Eventually, Scadrial would learn from early mistakes, learn how to counter the Radiants. All it would take would be a couple supply-line sabotages to starve them of stormlight and finish them off, and again, heaven help them if Ironeyes or the Bands of Mourning enter the chat.

 

(Yes/Yes/No)

Spoiler

Result: Toss-up/Hard-Fought Rosharan Victory

Okay, Fused and Thunderclasts, now we're talking!

Bad News: Just as limited on Voidlight as we are on Stormlight.

Fused are game-changing, since they can throw themselves into battle using their Surge, and respawn on death--although it does take a while to Return. Thunderclasts are even more game changing, as the Rosharans finally have a resource they can wantonly throw at enemy lines to cause incredible destruction without worrying about resources expended. Heck, the Thunderclasts alone might be what wins them the war. They can shatter enemy lines and scatter forces, giving the Rosharan infantry the morale advantage while the Scadrian riflemen are fleeing. They'd force the Scadrians to bring out heavy artillery to deal with the 'Clasts, but Radiants and Fused can sabotage those. They'd be forcing the Scadrians on the retreat, and possibly forcing a surrender by threatening their major cities with 'Clasts and Dustbringers.

But, the Scadrians are crafty, and they have a lot of Metalborn powers. I'd see them losing New Seran, fighting desperately to keep them out of the Basin, and generally being panicked until Kelsier and the top minds of SoScad, NorScad, and the Ghostbloods find a way to make and harness Anti-Voidlight. They're good at heists, so they should be able to acquire some stolen Voidlight spheres. Someone on Scadrial with Zinc compounding is going to be smart enough to work out Anti-Voidlight, likely again with help from the Ghostblood's Realmatic knowledge, and then Hemalurgy can craft metalborn capable enough to actually properly kill the 'Clastspren with it. This is why I say it's a toss-up, because really Scadrial's best asset is Kelsier and his crew of Ghostbloods and their wealth of realmatic knowledge (even if they do have a lot of things incorrect), otherwise the threat of their civilian populations being devastated might just force a surrender.

 

Sidenote:

I should address the metalborn at this point, because I've been neglecting their role in all this. The thing is, metalborn are pretty powerful. Wax and Co. shouldn't be taken as an example, as they've got Protagonist Power that is off the charts, but if you look at the metalborn in the background of the story--they are pretty capable against folks. But when there's 20k+ metalborn and 5m+ people with guns, suddenly each metalborn becomes less of a deciding factor on a massive battlefield. No one Misting or Ferring is a one-man army, not like the Mistborn and Fullborn were. Hemalurgy and medallions can make some great super-soldiers, especially compounders, but even steelrunenrs are going to catch a bullet or a Shardblade at some point and then they're done. They do make a difference, but I argue its less of a difference on their home turf than on Roshar.

Here's what I mean. An army of Scadrians with metalborn on Roshar is a problem, and the Radiants are going to have to actually deal with those metalborn because they're invaders. On Scadrial, however, Radiants are going to be avoiding fighting them. It's much more effective to ignore the metalborn entirely, and then rain destruction on a bunch of normal soldiers or a city, compared to risking death by dueling with a steel or gold compounder or a Chromium/Pewter twinborn with ettmetal and aluminum weapons. The metalborn would be definitely looking to fight the Radiants, however, so the Radiants would likely group up where they can support and defend each other, and generally try to avoid or ignore enemy magic users, unless they're Kel or Marsh or a wielder of the BoM that can't be ignored.

 

(Yes/Yes/Yes)

Spoiler

Rosharan Curbstomp.

Here's the thing. When Radiants don't need to worry about resources, they don't need to worry about much at all. Roshar doesn't even need an infantry force, except to occupy captured land. The Rosharans are showing up in a fleet of fabrial airships, with SF's Bondsmith on one, and Ishar's Honorblade's wielder on another, and basically every Surgebinder they have as the crew. They're flying straight up to New Seran and absolutely torching every Scadrian army that gets in their way. They drop to the ground and air, and cause environmental havoc with Tension, Cohesion, Division, Transformation, Gravitation, and a whole lot of explosive Soulcast gunpowder (because if they have gunpowder, then the Radiants can learn to Soulcast it, and lots of it.) They demand surrender from New Seran. New Seran refuses. They torch the place. They move on to every city in NorScad, and by the time they reach Doriel NorScad surrenders.

Why? Couldn't they find a way to kill the Radiants? Couldn't they make anti-light like in the last hypothetical? What about the three near-fullborn Scadrial has with Kel, Marsh, and the BoM wielder?

Well, sure, they could put up a fight. They could probably even take some real casualties, killing Radiants and downing their airships. But why would they? Every time they refuse surrender, Roshar nukes a city. Every Radiant they kill results in a Thunderclast popping up in the Basin (or in SoScad). Every army they throw at them dies horrifically. Even if Ironeyes himself showed up in a storm of Atium, compounding, and Allomancy, he's going to be fighting an actual army of Radiants; an army that's immediately going to tell him that if he doesn't stop, he can say goodbye to the entire city of Elendel because the Skybreakers are already on their way over. This is assuming they don't just have a series of Elsecallers and Willshapers that can just pull the entire Radiant army into the Cognitive to avoid the problem entirely. If Transporation is capable of that, then they're even more unstoppable. 

Team Radiant loses like 1k members, and Scadrial loses millions. They force NorScad to surrender, then turn their sights to SoScad. 

It will become incredibly obvious that every moment they refuse to surrender is only going to drag out their punishment. Even if Shardbearers can't hold ground, they can make the prospect of taking that ground seem really unattractive. Roshar wins. EZ clap. 

 

There are your hypotheticals. Obviously it's super generous to even give Roshar (Yes/No/No), and (Yes/Yes/Yes) is only happening under specific circumstances and isn't likely at all. Most likely, the Rosharan offensive is getting curbstomped even faster than Scadrial's offensive would. Which is probably why S v R is only going to happen in Era 4 instead of Era 2 in the canon works, lol. The home field advantage is just insane when Radiants are confined to only one of the two planets. (It's a little funny though, the home-field advantage Roshar has is the Radiants, and the home-field advantage Scadrial has is "Roshar doesn't have their Radiants" lolll)

Also, to be fair to Scadrial, they have two fullborn that can leave the planet. If they unleashed those two (and a bunch of hemalurgic super-compounders that have no qualms about needing a linchpin to stay alive), they could do a very similar thing to Roshar and definitely give the Scadrian offensive a real edge. They'd likely be vulnerable to connection shenanigans, but it's a bit of a moot point if they just... don't go where the Bondsmiths are and cause havoc everywhere else. Even a fullborn might struggle against a Thunderclast, but again, when in doubt, run away and go ravage another town. Scadrial might be able to force a surrender that way, but I wouldn't give it huge odds just because the sheer amount of Radiants and the tons of metal a fullborn would need means that they could eventually find a way to kill/capture their enemies. 

Fullborn are to Roshar as Thunderclasts are to Scadrial, imo. Rusting powerful and terrifying, but few enough that finding their weakness or brute-forcing their death essentially removes them from the board (a lot like a Queen in chess.)

Edited May 28, 2021 by The Technovore

[Bejarden]

8 minutes ago, The Technovore said:

Fullborn are to Roshar as Thunderclasts are to Scadrial, imo. Rusting powerful and terrifying, but few enough that finding their weakness or brute-forcing their death essentially removes them from the board (a lot like a Queen in chess.

I disagree with this

A Fullborn is much more powerful since they could have an equal weight and strength and heal and go very very fast. 
And if he would steal the Edgedancer Honorblade (Abrasion) Game over

They just have a long reload time

Renarin basically one on ones a Thunderclastk in OB if I’m remembering correctly 

The Queen reference makes sense

[Frustration]

20 minutes ago, Bejardin1250 said:

I disagree with this

A Fullborn is much more powerful since they could have an equal weight and strength and heal and go very very fast. 
And if he would steal the Edgedancer Honorblade (Abrasion) Game over

They just have a long reload time

Renarin basically one on ones a Thunderclastk in OB if I’m remembering correctly 

The Queen reference makes sense

Finding one of the weapons that's been kept secret for over 4,500 years would be difficult.

Renarin is helped by Adolin and another Shardbearer, all of whom could cut stone like butter.

@The Technovore great analisis.