Karger

Thaidakar the Knowledge and Possibilities

97 posts in this topic

A lot of people are talking about Kel being confirmed as Thaidakar.  I admit I find the arguments somewhat compelling although I do see problems with them.  You can find the pro and against arguments I have managed to gather in the spoiler.

Spoiler

Considering the evidence for Kelsier=Thaidakar basically boils down to:

1. Thaidakar is (probably) a cognitive shadow, or at least is in a similar situation to the Heralds

2. He is called "Lord of Scars"

3. Wit slapped him around(he can't usually hurt people)

These are the anti

1.  Mraize says he talks to Kelsier's "avatar"

2. The GB MO is very very different from Kel's

3. Kalak calls Thaidakar, "old Thaidakar". Kelsier's 300 yrs, Kalak is 7000 years.

If I missed any direct evidence please tell me.

However rather then debate on if Kel is or Thaidakar(we have probably all made up our minds by now) or not I think we should instead explore the possibilities.

Things we actually know about him are scarce.  We know Hoid does not like him, that he is CS, that he has been around for a while, that he is an important player on a planet(singular), that he is cosmere aware, and that he can project an avatar.  We also know that he has a problem similar to the Heralds and wants to avoid it.  Finally thanks to this WoB

Quote

Geoffray

Is Thaidakar the leader of the Ghostbloods?

Brandon Sanderson

[Thaidakar] is a leader.

Paris signing (Oct. 22, 2016)

we know he is not the only leader of the GBs.

If Kel is Thaidakar I can only see two real possibilities.  However whichever is right I still do not think Kelseir founded the GBs.  In this situation I think he would instead be a member of the GB "board of directors."  I do not think that he founded the organization.  I really can't see Kel making a new organization without making himself the absolute leader regardless of what has happened to him.  Even if he is insane now we know from the Heralds that the way he operates would not be any different. 

The first is that he has undergone a situation similar to the Heralds and is no longer acting anything like he did when alive.  This would explain a lot about #2 on the list of anti. 

Quote

Questioner

The Heralds seem to be insane in the ways of their Divine Attributes, at least somewhat. Is this because they're Heralds? As Cognitive Shadows, they're subject to people's perception, like how spren are?

Brandon Sanderson

That's a very astute question, and yes, that is influencing them quite a bit. I'm doing something here with the Heralds. Like, I want the Heralds "madnesses," as we call them, to be magical diseases. And the contrast of something like Kaladin's depression, which I'm trying to treat very real-world. I'm trying to treat them as these things that couldn't exist in our world. They're fantastical mental diseases, like we have fantastic physical diseases in Elantris. So I did make them thematic, and I would say part of the reason for that is people's perception of them and their mental state reacting against that. And that should be a theme among all of the Heralds.

San Diego [email protected] 2020 (July 23, 2020)

Basically Kelseir is now more interested in destruction, never laughs, and avoids good people and free thinkers.

The other possibility is that he has gotten worse and is a bit desperate to avoid ending up like the Heralds.  Remember Kelseir is basically a spren at the moment and as we know spren see changing as a kind of death.  It could easily be even be worse for Kel who was made out of Preservation's power rather then one of the Rosharan shards.  Under this desperation Kel might act uncharacteristically because he is, understandably, desperate. 

EDIT.  I am adding a suggested possibility that Kel has gone nativist and maintains his old style while on scadrail but is a douche everywhere else.  I am not sure how this would work but it would explain some actions he has taken.  If someone could develop it further I would appreciate that.

 

If Kel is not Thaidakar then I think we can still agree he is some kind of CS.  That would ,depending on the circumstances, give Hoid the ability to hurt them solving pro arguments one and three.  If they are older as well it would agree with anti argument 3.  They could be from a planet we don't know about yet or possibly somewhere like Nalthis where we have not yet seen full CS(a returned without a body could last a lot longer). 

I would like to see if I am missing anything.  Arguments welcome.

Edited by Karger
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So, I gave a very long explanation for why I’m pretty sure this isn’t a trick in another thread. I’m not repeating it here.

Regarding Kell’s mental state: I think he’s too young a Shadow to be experiencing most of the side effects. And I think, under most circumstances, he wouldn’t be aware of the subtle changes yet.

HOWEVER.

He has TWO different mythologies on opposing sides of Scadrial. I’ve theorized before that elements of her personality become stronger and weaker (Rioted and Soothed?) depending on which side of Scadrial he’s on. These changes are much more obvious to him, and there may be some disorientation when he goes from one side of Scadrial to the other.

He knows he’s running out of time to find a way to stop this, or it will destroy him. So he’s desperate. And his Intent is Survive, which just makes it worse...

 

Not sure why you don’t think the GBs feel like Kell’s team, though. They always did; that’s why I theorized he was leading them. Never expected to be RIGHT though...

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25 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Not sure why you don’t think the GBs feel like Kell’s team, though. They always did; that’s why I theorized he was leading them. Never expected to be RIGHT though...

He is not according to WoB their absolute leader.  Given how hierarchical their structure is if he were their founder I think he would be able to exert more control over them then a leader.

30 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Regarding Kell’s mental state: I think he’s too young a Shadow to be experiencing most of the side effects

Zahel seems to have a few and he is not that much older.

30 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

He has TWO different mythologies on opposing sides of Scadrial. I’ve theorized before that elements of her personality become stronger and weaker (Rioted and Soothed?) depending on which side of Scadrial he’s on. These changes are much more obvious to him, and there may be some disorientation when he goes from one side of Scadrial to the other.

He think these effects are location dependent?

31 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Not sure why you don’t think the GBs feel like Kell’s team, though

I don't want to derail the thread so I will spoiler my answer.  If you wish to continue we can PM.

Spoiler

The main reason that Kel was so successful was because he was willing to trust people.  That is not to say you would not take reasonable precautions to avoid betray but at the same time trusting people who said they were committed allowed him to overthrow the empire.   Kelseir was perfectly willing to let Vin walk off with money and knowledge because he knew that real loyalty was better then simple obedience.  Mraize does not care about real loyalty only commitment and is perfectly willing to blackmail Shallan into doing as she is told.  Kelseir would not approve of this behavior.  He gives his subordinates as much information as possible and trusts them to not just obey but also to go above and beyond in the name of a shared goal.

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14 minutes ago, Karger said:

He is not according to WoB their absolute leader.  Given how hierarchical their structure is if he were their founder I think he would be able to exert more control over them then a leader.

Zahel seems to have a few and he is not that much older.

He think these effects are location dependent?

I don't want to derail the thread so I will spoiler my answer.  If you wish to continue we can PM.

  Hide contents

The main reason that Kel was so successful was because he was willing to trust people.  That is not to say you would not take reasonable precautions to avoid betray but at the same time trusting people who said they were committed allowed him to overthrow the empire.   Kelseir was perfectly willing to let Vin walk off with money and knowledge because he knew that real loyalty was better then simple obedience.  Mraize does not care about real loyalty only commitment and is perfectly willing to blackmail Shallan into doing as she is told.  Kelseir would not approve of this behavior.  He gives his subordinates as much information as possible and trusts them to not just obey but also to go above and beyond in the name of a shared goal.

Zahel is several centuries older than Kell. I believe Warbreaker and MB take place around the same time.

 

I completely agree that Kell does not have full control over the GBs and would be furious with Mraize. But he’s stuck on Scadrial; he has to work through others.

Thaidakar is a leader may mean: 

1) there have been others

2) there are multiple leaders

3) Thaidakar means 'a leader.’

4) There are levels of leaders, with Thaidakar possibly being at the top.

 

Kell would never willingly share leadership. Being stuck on Scadrial may mean he doesn’t have a choice. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see!

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15 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Zahel is several centuries older than Kell. I believe Warbreaker and MB take place around the same time.

Warbreaker takes place after Harmony's ascension.  Kel could be less then 100 years younger depending on how old Vasher was during the Manywar.

15 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

I completely agree that Kell does not have full control over the GBs and would be furious with Mraize. But he’s stuck on Scadrial; he has to work through others.

Exactly.  Because of this he must be at least partially answerable to other GBs.  I personally think he would have been more discriminating if he was starting from the ground with the organization.

15 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

3) Thaidakar means 'a leader.’

I think we can safely rule out this one.  Wit refers to them as a spesific individual.

Edited by Karger
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Just now, Karger said:

Warbreaker takes place after Harmony's ascension.  Kel could be less then 100 years younger depending on how old Vasher was during the Manywar.

Exactly.  Because of this he must be at least partially answerable to other GBs.  I personally think he would have been more discriminating if he was starting from the ground with the organization.

I think we can safely rule out this one.  Wit refers to them as a spesific individual.

Yes, Wit does, but the way Brandon answered was vague enough that it could mean that - AND be a title for a particular Individual.

Because of how he’s bound, Kell could officially be the leader but unofficially partly answerable to the people who act for him. Or the people giving his orders could be misinterpreting them and by the time he learns of it it’s too late.

The Manywar appears to have taken place three centuries before WB. So exactly how much younger Kell is than Vasher is unclear. Thanks for fixing my mistake! Still, Vasher doesn’t seem to have been overwhelmed by his intent yet, and he IS older.

Trying to find the EXACT timeline lead me to this WOB though:

Second question is that I've moved things so that The Way of Kings is around the same time as The Alloy of Law, forced by some behind-the-scenes events. Warbreaker now happens before The Alloy of Law.“

I think we now have an inkling as to those ‘behind the scenes events,’ lol! Apparently Mistborn Era 3 (then 2) was supposed to coincide with SA. This got changed. W&W was supposed to occur before SA. This also got changed. So when and where things took place seems to have gotten a bit scrambled...

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As to the WoB, I want to point out that I think you're reading that wrong. Brandon refused to confirm if Kelsier was even associated with the Ghostbloods, just dropping hints. This should be read as "Kelsier is indeed a leader of something, but not necessarily the Ghostbloods" rather than "Kelsier is one of the leaders of the Ghostbloods". Kelsier could indeed still be just one of a ruling council, but he could also be at the top of the ladder.

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This may also be a main reason Lost Metal hasn’t been written yet. He had to do what he did with RoW first. 
 

I’m sure we will find out more about Kel and the GB in Lost Metal.

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This expedition makes for a gripping yarn. But it makes no sense for the Ghostbloods. Not if you think it through under the stated purposes.

  1. Motivation and equipment (a.k.a. overly robust techniques of motivation)
    Kalak and the purported Kelsier share a goal. They want to make Cognitive Shadows mobile. Kalak looks ready to do things I shall not mention to get somebody to develop such technologies. What is the Ghostbloods first action towards him? Shallan, stab him to death! Even if you have the technology to contact him in that gem, why? It lacks any sense.
  2. Methods (a.k.a. living on a prayer)
    You have a weapon. The only other time such a weapon was used, it did, for the purpose of capture, fail catastrophically. Granted they may not know. Then they still have amerely used, not a tested weapon as far as they know. You have no idea whether your version actually fell into your hands undamaged or if you copied the design, whether you made an error. And then you give it to the hands of an untrained freelancer. If she just conventionally kills Kalak, he will go to Damnation. And if he survives, she will waste an irreplacable asset.
  3. Cost/benefit analysis (a.k.a. pointy haired middle managers)
    You have a weapon containg a god metal. Most likely a substance of which exist at most a few kilogramms in the whole Cosmere. You handle it in an unsecured package without guards to an untrusted trainee, who used to be the assistant of an enemy less than a year ago
  4. Target selection (a.k.a. work by Rube Goldberg)
    You are supposed to be put back into a living body. Like a Fused. You want to experiment with one of the rarest beings in the Cosmere whose body is created by exotic means.

If the Ghostbloods were desperated and needed this to be done now, why is this not in Iyatil's hands? Somebody is trying to trick somebody. I am not sure what is what in that web of lies, but the cover story is flawed beyond repair.
Who wants a Herald dead:

  1. Odium - for obvious reasons
  2. Hoid - as long as Heralds are alive, one of them may die and break, which could set Odium free again, should the current Desolation end
 

What else could they do? There are options.

  • Just wait till he leaves
  • assault the city

All the clues that associate Thaidakar with Kelsier directly come from Hoid. Even the news that he is a Cognitive Shadow is transmitted via Seon. We know that Hoid has been to Sel at least twice and is a Lightweaver.

Edited by Oltux72
editor ate some parts
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Whether Kelsier is Thaidakar I've not fully made up my mind. On whether he is the total leader of the GB if he is Thaidakar, probably yes, although the anti arguments are really good (wish I had upvotes left).

I agree that Thaidakar's apparent mode of behavior for the GB if he is Kelsier are not typical of him (killing random porters, recruiting Shallan the opposite way of how he recruited Vin, etc). To this I have three different explanations to add to the brainstorming.

1. Kelsier has decided he will protect Scadrial and only Scadrial. In Scadrial he keeps to his old morals (sort of) but outside he is even more heartless than in his worst times in Scadrial

2. Kelsier is very far away from the GB in Roshar, he has probably not met most of the members, and is forced to trust that they are people who would align with him personality wise. The consequences of distant leadership is the same as distant relationships. They get jumbled and their ideals may end up differing without the leader or underlings becoming aware at first

3. Mraize is a very small potato in the GB who has been using Shallan to gain more power inside the GB and get access to more rare resources, but for some time now he was in over his head. Surgebinders are so far the most powerful magical beings in the Cosmere that a normal person can easily become (there are exceptions, but in general this is the case). The game Mraize was playing of keeping Shallan like a useful dog was always bound to fail unless he wised up fast, since Shallan was becoming more and more insanely powerful. Even if Shallan had killed Kelek and fully joined the GB, she would have just removed Mraize after learning the rules. As such the GB appear very opposite of Kelsier's modus operandi because we have just seen Mraize who does not represent the average GB at all.

Are any of these explanations correct? Guess we'll have to RAFO :P.

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1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

Motivation

Is still unclear.  They wanted Kelek under their power.  We don't know he and Kel share a goal or that Kel is the only one with a vested interest in his capture.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

Methods (a.k.a. living on a prayer)

The GBs don't know that their weapon won't work.  That knowledge seems exclusive to the Heralds and team Odium.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

You handle it in an unsecured package without guards to an untrusted trainee, who used to be the assistant of an enemy less than a year ago

Mraize was overconfident.  However for this mission to succeed they did not have other options.  We don't know how much Raysium the GBs have or if they have any other uses for it.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

If the Ghostbloods were desperated and needed this to be done now, why is this not in Iyatil's hands? Somebody is trying to trick somebody. I am not sure what is what in that web of lies, but the cover story is flawed beyond repair.

They said they can't enter lasting integrity.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

Just wait till he leaves

Problematic.  He is a Herald.  They are highly unpredictable people.  He could stay there for the next century or disappear without a trace next week.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

assault the city

I don't think the GBs have the numbers for this.  Also might want to prefer making permanent enemies of the Honorspren.  Those guys really keep grudges.  Finally Heralds are really dangerous in open combat.  Mraize was counting on surprise and despair.  No way they have anyone who can take Kelek.

19 minutes ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

Even if Shallan had killed Kelek and fully joined the GB, she would have just removed Mraize after learning the rules

She could theoretically have just been promoted faster then him.

20 minutes ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

1. Kelsier has decided he will protect Scadrial and only Scadrial. In Scadrial he keeps to his old morals (sort of) but outside he is even more heartless than in his worst times in Scadrial

I had not considered this one actually.  It is quite interesting.  Motivation is still questionable.  Kelseir becoming a nativist would explain Thaidikar's actions but how he became like that is still very questionable.  I will add this one and hope someone can develop it more.

21 minutes ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

2. Kelsier is very far away from the GB in Roshar, he has probably not met most of the members, and is forced to trust that they are people who would align with him personality wise. The consequences of distant leadership is the same as distant relationships. They get jumbled and their ideals may end up differing without the leader or underlings becoming aware at first

I personally find this one less compelling.  Iyatil reports to him so he knows who she is.  Given that I think he would know who Mraize is as well. 

23 minutes ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

Mraize is a very small potato in the GB who has been using Shallan to gain more power inside the GB and get access to more rare resources, but for some time now he was in over his head

He seems to have way too much access.  He knew who Ash was, why Amaram was important, was cosmere aware...  It just seems too much for a nobody.

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Honestly, with Keldakar tethered to his home planet, I could see the GB set up in a way that has both an absolute leader, and also several lesser leaders. It's possible Mraize IS the leader of the Rosharan chapter, and he reports to their boss through his babsk (or, apparently, by interacting with his "avatar"). If i may don my tinfoil hat, I'd like to kick in the idea that Iyatil, whose identity seems rather strongly connected to southern Scadrial (even if she didn't grow up there) may have enough connection to Kelsier that he may be able to speak through her using some form of hemalurgy. This would explain the comment about the Avatar without invalidating him as a candidate.

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14 minutes ago, Karger said:

I personally find this one less compelling.  Iyatil reports to him so he knows who she is.  Given that I think he would know who Mraize is as well. 

I'm not saying he wouldn't know who Mraize is or what he is supposed to do, more that he wouldn't know the way Mraize dealt with issues on a day to day. Basically that Kelsier got the yearly reports, and ignored the daily ones. 

21 minutes ago, Karger said:

He seems to have way too much access.  He knew who Ash was, why Amaram was important, was cosmere aware...  It just seems too much for a nobody.

Not a nobody. Much like Leshwi said, she was part of the important Fused leaders, but among the leaders she was at the bottom.

But I hear you, all 3 possible explanations are in their infancy. But what I suspect is that while Shallan and Adolin may have problems with the GB in the near future, they likely won't meet or have problems with Thaidakar for some time. 

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15 hours ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Not sure why you don’t think the GBs feel like Kell’s team, though. They always did; that’s why I theorized he was leading them. Never expected to be RIGHT though...

There are key differences, I feel- but the biggest is that, quite frankly, none of the Ghostbloods feel like good people. Kel chose the crew to take down the Final Empire because they were men of quality and character. He chose them because he could trust them, because they wanted to make things better. The Ghostbloods- well, they don’t seem to possess the same characteristics of the crew.

However, that being said, almost everything we know about the Ghostbloods comes from Shallan’s side- and Shallan really doesn’t like them. It’s possible that in the greater Cosmere, they’re a lot less ‘evil’. Roshar’s politics are really delicate, and so I imagine it’d be a lot easier to seem a villain there.

A good analogy might actually be Hoid. I would be willing to bet on some planets, Hoid is absolutely a hero. On others? Well, the definition of hero gets a little dicier. Might be the same with the Ghostbloods.

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And yet another set of issues

  1. They have figured out how to get Stormlight out of the Rosharan system
  2. They know how to get a Seon off Sel
  3. They are supposed to be from Scadrial. If anybody understands Connection, it will be the people with duraluminium compounders

And you want me to believe that they cannot unchain a Cognitive Shadow?

1 hour ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

1. Kelsier has decided he will protect Scadrial and only Scadrial. In Scadrial he keeps to his old morals (sort of) but outside he is even more heartless than in his worst times in Scadrial

Fair enough. It explains his ruthlessness. But not the inefficiency. And with respect to Shallan they are inefficient.

1 hour ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

3. Mraize is a very small potato in the GB who has been using Shallan to gain more power inside the GB and get access to more rare resources, but for some time now he was in over his head.

  • a seon
  • god metal
  • an innovative fabrial
  • an aviar

If a middle manager can sign off on that, what do they have at the top level? But they cannot free a Cognitive Shadow?

52 minutes ago, Karger said:

The GBs don't know that their weapon won't work.  That knowledge seems exclusive to the Heralds and team Odium.

Neither do they know that it works. Or what it is intended to do in the first place. Did they just assume it would capture instead of kill? If Odium's side told them or they have a mole would they just assume that their peculiar weapon is functional and ready to use? Without training? And did they just believe the Fused, who would be quite happy if another Herald were killed?

So their plan is that they send

  • a seon
  • an irreplacabble weapon
  • an irreplacable potential member
  • with an untested weapon
  • to a place they have problems infiltrating
  • to kill a being with unknown combat abilities
  • and no clear plan for her escaping with the captured entity
  • after an action her companions would deem a heinous, sacrilegeous crime
  • with no training, no alternative routes or options
  • no briefing (sure she'd be stupid enough to ask for a Herald)

If a mid-level operative can order such an operation, they need to work on internal procedures.

52 minutes ago, Karger said:

I don't think the GBs have the numbers for this.

What they must have spent on this would have bought a lot of mercenaries.

52 minutes ago, Karger said:

  Also might want to prefer making permanent enemies of the Honorspren.  Those guys really keep grudges.

As opposed to risking the capture of a member with a Herald-slaying weapon abusing a diplomatic mission committing murder?

Something does not add up.

 

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4 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

And yet another set of issues

  1. They have figured out how to get Stormlight out of the Rosharan system
  2. They know how to get a Seon off Sel
  3. They are supposed to be from Scadrial. If anybody understands Connection, it will be the people with duraluminium compounders

And you want me to believe that they cannot unchain a Cognitive Shadow?

You just got me thinking, have we ever seen an unchained CS? Maybe nobody can do it, and these folks in the GB are just the closest. You note that they got stormlight off of Roshar, so presumably, THAT plan didn't work. They figured out how to get the Seons off Sel, but for whatever reason, the method doesn't seem to have translated to Thaidakar. They know a whole lot about Connection, and they think they've figured out how gemstones work with investiture.

7 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Neither do they know that it works. Or what it is intended to do in the first place. Did they just assume it would capture instead of kill? If Odium's side told them or they have a mole would they just assume that their peculiar weapon is functional and ready to use? Without training? And did they just believe the Fused, who would be quite happy if another Herald were killed?

So their plan is that they send

  • a seon
  • an irreplacabble weapon
  • an irreplacable potential member
  • with an untested weapon
  • to a place they have problems infiltrating
  • to kill a being with unknown combat abilities
  • and no clear plan for her escaping with the captured entity
  • after an action her companions would deem a heinous, sacrilegeous crime
  • with no training, no alternative routes or options
  • no briefing (sure she'd be stupid enough to ask for a Herald)

I think that you've really hit at the core of this plotline with this bit. I would posit that you're right, they DON'T know whether the weapon will capture or kill. THAT is the mission. They aren't sending Shallan on an assassination mission, they're sending her on a product test. I think that this squares with their mission to capture B-A-M. They want to test with shallan if they can put an intact CS in a gem, and they want to test with B-A-M whether carrying that gem to a new planet will kill the being inside. 

 

So they sent

  • A Seon, to allow for instant feedback on the results of the experiment
  • An irreplaceable weapon, or perhaps prototype tool, which they don't know is functional. Three other such weapons that I recall are mentioned in the book, should the test be successful
  • You've got me here. Perhaps the most powerful non-member who wouldn't have important information when inevitably caught? I definitely got "Mraize is gonna kill Shallan" vibes the moment he offered her full membership, which made me feel like it would never really be on the table, but that's just me.  
  • exactly
  • Another good argument for sending Shallan, if she's their only hope to get in
  • or to test the gem as a cs capsule, but the combat abilities I can't account for. True desperation after all their other plots have failed?
  • Maybe they're fine with her being captured, hoping she can hide the Seon and send reports on the health of the herald in the knife?
  • Showing that they see Shallan as expendable in every way, if it gets them closer to their goal, perhaps?
  • At least this chapter of ghostbloods seem like real jerks.
  • REAL jerks.

In conclusion, I think you're entirely right. The plot as presented to us doesn't add up. I did my best to bridge the gaps, but be warned, I cut my teeth over at the ASOIAF boards. Nine years without a book... It's no four thousand years on Braize, but let's just say that none of us are fully sane anymore.

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12 minutes ago, AirsickHighlander said:

You just got me thinking, have we ever seen an unchained CS?

  • Zahel
  • Hoid's boat
  • future Dalinar (no point in turning him into a Fused to send out if he cannot leave)
12 minutes ago, AirsickHighlander said:

Maybe nobody can do it, and these folks in the GB are just the closest. You note that they got stormlight off of Roshar, so presumably, THAT plan didn't work. They figured out how to get the Seons off Sel, but for whatever reason, the method doesn't seem to have translated to Thaidakar.

Here we are entering circular reasoning. We are assuming that he is a CS because he cannot leave and he cannot leave because he is a CS.

Assuming Mraize told the truth. Assuming it actually was mraize at the other end of the seon call.

12 minutes ago, AirsickHighlander said:

I think that you've really hit at the core of this plotline with this bit. I would posit that you're right, they DON'T know whether the weapon will capture or kill. THAT is the mission. They aren't sending Shallan on an assassination mission, they're sending her on a product test.

Then why not stab a Returned or a Fused? This just makes no sense.

Unless of course it must be a Herald. But then why did they not capture Ash when they had baited her? But if it has to be a Herald, Thaidakar's problem is not being a CS, but the equivalent of the oath pact. And then we and Shallan are being misled. Why?

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2 hours ago, AirsickHighlander said:

Honestly, with Keldakar tethered to his home planet, I could see the GB set up in a way that has both an absolute leader, and also several lesser leaders. It's possible Mraize IS the leader of the Rosharan chapter, and he reports to their boss through his babsk (or, apparently, by interacting with his "avatar"). If i may don my tinfoil hat, I'd like to kick in the idea that Iyatil, whose identity seems rather strongly connected to southern Scadrial (even if she didn't grow up there) may have enough connection to Kelsier that he may be able to speak through her using some form of hemalurgy. This would explain the comment about the Avatar without invalidating him as a candidate.

A variant: Kell is speaking through/controlling  a Kandra using his bones. He’d be very Connected to his own skeleton, and he’s a powerful enough Alomancer to control a Kandra.

Edited by Kingsdaughter613
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2 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

A variant: Kell is speaking through/controlling  a Kandra using his bones. He’d be very Connected to his own skeleton, and he’s a powerful enough Alomancer to control a Kandra.

  1. They have Seons
  2. Why tell his people of his problems then?
  3. Why then launch a badly prepared mission for Kalak? This state of affairs may be seen as actually better than going in person.
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9 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:
  • Zahel
  • Hoid's boat
  • future Dalinar (no point in turning him into a Fused to send out if he cannot leave)

Here we are entering circular reasoning. We are assuming that he is a CS because he cannot leave and he cannot leave because he is a CS.

Assuming Mraize told the truth. Assuming it actually was mraize at the other end of the seon call.

Then why not stab a Returned or a Fused? This just makes no sense.

Unless of course it must be a Herald. But then why did they not capture Ash when they had baited her? But if it has to be a Herald, Thaidakar's problem is not being a CS, but the equivalent of the oath pact. And then we and Shallan are being misled. Why?

That is brilliant. The Oathpact.
 

How was Kell initially preserved? By making him part of Ruin’s prison. What is Kell that no other CS we’ve seen has been? A Sliver.

How do the Heralds retain their existence? Through the Oathpact.

Kell doesn’t need to escape Scadrial’s Connection; he needs to figure out how to persist if he interferes with the very Investiture that’s essential to his existence!

3 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:
  1. They have Seons
  2. Why tell his people of his problems then?
  3. Why then launch a badly prepared mission for Kalak? This state of affairs may be seen as actually better than going in person.

I doubt it’s very easy to maintain the Connection over such a distance. I feel he’d need to go fairly close to the border to use this method.

And I doubt Roshar is the only place he’s keeping an eye on.

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44 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Neither do they know that it works. Or what it is intended to do in the first place. Did they just assume it would capture instead of kill? If Odium's side told them or they have a mole would they just assume that their peculiar weapon is functional and ready to use? Without training? And did they just believe the Fused, who would be quite happy if another Herald were killed?

My guess is that they understand the theory behind the weapon but there is something wrong with their underlying understanding so they expect the weapon to work even though we know it won't.

45 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

And you want me to believe that they cannot unchain a Cognitive Shadow?

Even Hoid can't do that yet.  I am also unsure how much progress they have actually made in getting stormligh offworld.  I personally think they have a theory for both CS and stormlight but have not been able to implement their plan yet.

47 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

an irreplacabble weapon

As far as I can tell it is just Raysium with a gemstone at the hilt.  I don't really think that constitutes irreplaceable just valuable.

48 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

and no clear plan for her escaping with the captured entity

They had a plan.  Lightweaving impersonation.

49 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

If a mid-level operative can order such an operation, they need to work on internal procedures.

Firstly we don't know if this is Mraize's plan.  Even if he is a high ranking member I think he would need authorization to preform this mission.

50 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

What they must have spent on this would have bought a lot of mercenaries.

Enough to assault a city?  Also the logistics would be a pain.

51 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

As opposed to risking the capture of a member with a Herald-slaying weapon abusing a diplomatic mission committing murder?

If Shallan fails her actions are much easier to disavow then the necessary money and even paper trail left from ruining an army.

3 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Zahel

Brandon has explained that he is not bound into a system by the nature of Endowment's investiture.

4 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Hoid's boat

Could easily be Scadrian.

4 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

future Dalinar (no point in turning him into a Fused to send out if he cannot leave)

I think Odium can probably get around this if he really wants to.

6 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Unless of course it must be a Herald. But then why did they not capture Ash when they had baited her?

Odium had not killed Jes yet.  They presumably missed their window with her.

7 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Then why not stab a Returned or a Fused? This just makes no sense.

Maybe they in fact did test the weapon on the fused and it worked.  The oathpact is partially defunct so the Herald's immortality does not work the same way anymore but the fused are still the same.

6 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

A variant: Kell is speaking through/controlling  a Kandra using his bones. He’d be very Connected to his own skeleton, and he’s a powerful enough Alomancer to control a Kandra.

That sounds like something Ishar might manage but I have no idea how that would work with the metallic arts.  Maybe a connection savant manipulating things the right way but if he had that kind of ability then he is basically not trapped anyways in most of the ways that matter.

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2 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:
  • Zahel
  • Hoid's boat
  • future Dalinar (no point in turning him into a Fused to send out if he cannot leave)
  • Duh, I'm an idiot >.<, he definitely seems to have cracked it
  • could be a case of that method not working cuz he's not the kind of alive kel wants?
  • also a good point
    4 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

    Here we are entering circular reasoning. We are assuming that he is a CS because he cannot leave and he cannot leave because he is a CS.

    Assuming Mraize told the truth. Assuming it actually was mraize at the other end of the seon call.

    More good points, but I was under the impression that Kel (who i'm assuming is Thaidakar for the moment) found out that he couldn't leave because he's a CS in Secret History. We can also assume that he is a CS because, even if he's not Kel, Hoid claims to have hit him once and seems to be willing to do so again, which as far as we're aware is something he can do only to a CS.

I'm going to run with these assumptions about Mraize simply because I haven't come up with or read anything that convinces me otherwise, but you're right, either of those would potentially  invalidate my theory.

9 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Then why not stab a Returned or a Fused? This just makes no sense.

Unless of course it must be a Herald. But then why did they not capture Ash when they had baited her? But if it has to be a Herald, Thaidakar's problem is not being a CS, but the equivalent of the oath pact. And then we and Shallan are being misled. Why?

This I think is the point that breaks my theory down the most. Maybe there's something specific about a CS living in the cognitive realm? I'd say they definitely want a Herald, because they used to be human, right? They'll want someone as close to Kel's circumstances as possible.

And why not Ash?... Maybe they didn't have the knife yet? Not the strongest defense, but it's something. Maybe they intended to test it with ash, but couldn't get it quick enough.

As to why Shallan (and the reader) is being misled, maybe it's because Mraize suspects she wouldn't risk a herald's life to test a tool to rescue an alien she's never met, so he ropes her in with bits of the intrigue she's addicted to instead.

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1 minute ago, Karger said:

My guess is that they understand the theory behind the weapon but there is something wrong with their underlying understanding so they expect the weapon to work even though we know it won't.

Even Hoid can't do that yet.  I am also unsure how much progress they have actually made in getting stormligh offworld.  I personally think they have a theory for both CS and stormlight but have not been able to implement their plan yet.

As far as I can tell it is just Raysium with a gemstone at the hilt.  I don't really think that constitutes irreplaceable just valuable.

They had a plan.  Lightweaving impersonation.

Firstly we don't know if this is Mraize's plan.  Even if he is a high ranking member I think he would need authorization to preform this mission.

Enough to assault a city?  Also the logistics would be a pain.

If Shallan fails her actions are much easier to disavow then the necessary money and even paper trail left from ruining an army.

Brandon has explained that he is not bound into a system by the nature of Endowment's investiture.

Could easily be Scadrian.

I think Odium can probably get around this if he really wants to.

Odium had not killed Jes yet.  They presumably missed their window with her.

Maybe they in fact did test the weapon on the fused and it worked.  The oathpact is partially defunct so the Herald's immortality does not work the same way anymore but the fused are still the same.

That sounds like something Ishar might manage but I have no idea how that would work with the metallic arts.  Maybe a connection savant manipulating things the right way but if he had that kind of ability then he is basically not trapped anyways in most of the ways that matter.

Alomancers can control Kandra, potentially over some distance. TLR controlled Koloss all the way at the edges of his empire. And Kell has access to Feruchemy, allowing him to manipulate Investiture.

It’s still not him though. He’d be controlling the Kandra, but it isn’t the same as him being there. And I think the Connection would fray over distance and take some effort to maintain.

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This title is too spoiler for my liking....

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1 minute ago, teknopathetic said:

This title is too spoiler for my liking....

Surprisingly not. The Thaidakar is Kelsier theory has been around for a long time and has been in multiple thread titles. It just happens to be a little more accurate than we expected.

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