Contest of Champions Predictions [RoW Spoilers]

[Isillor]

On 11/29/2020 at 0:55 PM, Bridge Boy said:

I stil cannot fathom why Dalinar and to a greater extent Jasnah thought it would be a good idea to agree to a contest of champions. 
 

Odium’s forces are at the height of their powers. The have been unchanged for millennia and have zero potential to progress or change what they are doing. 
 

Where as Dalinar is a novice with his bondsmith abilities. He only has two radiants above the 3rd ideal. They just bonded the sibling and the Human advancement of Fabrial technology is light years ahead of what the enemy is capable of producing themselves.
 

The Radiants are not far away from a point of progression where they would easily dominate this conflict/war. This “Contest of Champions” looks to be the only possible way odium could win; yet they agree to it anyway. It baffles me. 

Odium's forces are far from the height of their power. For starters, the average Singer has a maximum of 1 year of military training vs the lifetime soldiers that the humans are employing. Given enough time Odium will have a properly functioning military not just generals. The other huge factor is war form, the average singer is naturally stronger, so strong they can leap chasms that require a Bridge that takes a minimum of 25 people to carry it for humans. They also come pre armored, in other words, once training sets in and they are not massively out skilled the singers are going to kick some serious ass. 

While the Radiants are scaling and swearing higher ideals the Fused are not as weak as you make them out to be. For starters, they are not all on Roshar yet. At the end of RoW and in the middle we see new and much more powerful Fused and Regals show up. El is shown to be an incredibly dangerous enemy.

While their science is more advanced Raboniel is able to take most of what they have and with the way Fabriels have been described it's not that hard to make them. The understanding of what bits need to be stuck where is the hard part, once you have that down all you need is some gemstones and some metal. Their constructions so far are fairly simple and rudimentary the most complex being the airship but even that isn't that complex when you get right down to it.

[Jon]

So I think a lot of us having been considering that the contest will be the climax of book five, but I'm beginning to wonder if that will actually be the case. Given that there are only 10 days until the contest, and there is a lot left to tie up that would take longer than that, I think it may be a real possibility that the contest takes place in the first or second act of the book, and the rest of the book deals with the fallout. 

[Lupis]

So many possible loopholes. The wording says they have to send a champion on the 10th hour of the 10th day to Urithiru, however it doesn't actually specify they have to meet then. One of them could take the long road.

Also, as this is the cosmere, what does "to the death" even mean? They didn't clarify.

If I were Dalinar I'd be seriously considering naming Nightblood as my champion, asking if it wanted to destroy some evil, and chucking it into the dueling arena for Odium's champion to deal with...

[Dreamwa1ker]

On 11/24/2020 at 3:44 PM, Tisc W Slabmuz said:

Or pick a champion who cannot be killed in the traditional sense.

Out there one: Mr T already has relied on Nightblood before, what if he chose Nightblood itself as a champion? It seems to be sapient enough to accept and he could tell it that it well get to destroy evil. And I'm not really sure how Nightblood could be killed/destroyed.

It also could fit in that Rayse didn't seem to fully grasp or be very aware of the potential of Nightblood in the way Taravangian was, hence how he was caught off-guard by it. But Taravangian clearly knows more.

[dionysus]

Rayse acknowledges that shards have to abide by the intent of their agreements, and can't use legal chicanery to circumvent them. So I doubt options like picking unkillable champions will happen, or more likely you think they are unkillable but the nature of being a "champion" will not be so simple. I suspect the twist instead will be that Dalinar winning will not be the victory everyone thinks it is, or that Dalinar losing will truly leave them with no options.

I think a nice reveal happened in the blurbs at the beginning of the chapters, chapter 34. "Since we are all essentially infinite, he needs no more power." I believe that merging shards does not grant one more power, but it unshackles the vessel from some of the restrictions imposed on him by his shard's intent. Except in a certain someone's case, where the opposite natures of the intents shackle him even more.

I think this might relate to the duel of champions and its aftermath in that I think we have enough evidence to conclude that shards have infinite power but also massive restrictions on how they can use it (some seem to date all the way back to the original shattering). I have seen evidence of 3 limitations imposed on shards: 1. they cannot do things directly against the shardic intent, 2. there appears to be binding agreements that bind all shards, despite changes in vessel, that date to the original shattering (ie t they can only directly impact people who place themselves by their own choices into their power or opposed to their power.), and 3. they are bound by agreements they make after the shattering.

 

What if the aftermath of the duel is that some of these restrictions fall away, for both Honor's side and Odium's side. In essence it is the conclusion of pacts made in the past. Now obviously, Dalinar and Odium will have to abide by what they agreed would happen for the winner and loser. But remember Dalinar is not working with full knowledge of what the old pact even had in it. I suspect Dalinar's lack of knowledge of the terms of the original pact will have huge implications.

Edited December 11, 2020 by dionysus

[Xerun]

Ok. Out there theory time. 
 

Mraize says Gavilar was trying to become immortal. Gavilar yells Szeth “you can tell Thaidakar he’s too late” implying he had succeeded. We know Gavilar was attempting to move things to Braize and had antivoidlight. 
 

what if he moved his cognitive self to Braize and the loophole is the champion doesn’t need to be alive. Book 5 contest of champions

 

Dalinar V Gavilar

[Master Silver]

As terrifying as Taravangian is, the Blackthorn would be more terrifying. But that would completely undo Oathbringer (the book). The Stormfather had talked of the Everstorm as his opposite, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I wonder if the Everstorm can have a bondsmith, or if Dalinar falls, does he bond or merge the two storms? If Ishar regains his sanity for a little bit, I don't think it would be a stretch for Dalinar to bond Oathbringer (the sword) and his old set of plate (which I imagine as Windrunner plate). And perhaps that would give him access to 4 surges instead of two. The two from being a bondsmith, and two from the next closest orders, being Stonewards and Windrunners. 

I know if it is a straight up duel against a man, fused or Regal or Radiant Dalinar will win. But knowing Taravangian it could be a game of chess. 

[RIP Sureblood]

On 11/30/2020 at 10:51 PM, Seloun said:

Option 2:

Odium is not incapable of breaking his word; it just has costs that Rayse!Odium is not willing to pay/risk. Taravangian, on the other hand, has zero compunctions about sacrificing himself to accomplish his goals; indeed, that is practically the essence of his character. So I think we need to look beyond the contract to see what Taravangian could potentially do by breaking the contract, but in a way that results in him achieving his goal anyway.

Also about what you said about Travagain being willing to risk it, would it even be a risk for him? Odium is worried about Cultivation killing him, but Cultivation is the one who gave Travagain his power, so would she kill him if given the chance?

 

On 12/3/2020 at 0:53 AM, Gderu said:

The most obvious clause to be exploited is about both champions arriving unhindered and unharmed. If Odium can get Dalinar's goaded enough, they might kill Odium's champion, and thus make Odium free. It honestly sounds very easy to do so.

 

You know, now that I think about it I'm pretty sure there's nothing in the contract about the champion not attacking the other side, right? So imagine Odium's champion tries to attack Gavinor or some random kid or something, Kaladin physically cannot let that happen

 

On 12/3/2020 at 0:53 AM, Gderu said:

The most obvious clause to be exploited is about both champions arriving unhindered and unharmed. If Odium can get Dalinar's goaded enough, they might kill Odium's champion, and thus make Odium free. It honestly sounds very easy to do so.

 

You know, now that I think about it I'm pretty sure there's nothing in the contract about the champion not attacking the other side, right? So imagine Odium's champion tries to attack Gavinor or some random kid or something, Kaladin physically cannot let that happen

 

On 12/5/2020 at 0:57 AM, Gderu said:

I seriously don't think that would count as willing. He has to be willing to fight for Odium against Dalinar.

Willing doesn't necessarily mean understanding

[teknopathetic]

I am starting to think Shallan will be Honour's champion. The contest is not just about fighting but about something else. Shallan has been forged through the fire, and there is that whole "drowned man vs man who never swam" speech. Plus we add that too "one of them might save us" from the back cover of TWoka....

Shallan, with two spren, steps up. 

[BenduLuke]

15 hours ago, teknopathetic said:

I am starting to think Shallan will be Honour's champion. The contest is not just about fighting but about something else. Shallan has been forged through the fire, and there is that whole "drowned man vs man who never swam" speech. Plus we add that too "one of them might save us" from the back cover of TWoka....

Shallan, with two spren, steps up. 

 

16 hours ago, RIP Sureblood said:

Willing doesn't necessarily mean understanding

 

On 12/12/2020 at 8:57 AM, Master Silver said:

As terrifying as Taravangian is, the Blackthorn would be more terrifying. But that would completely undo Oathbringer (the book). The Stormfather had talked of the Everstorm as his opposite, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I wonder if the Everstorm can have a bondsmith, or if Dalinar falls, does he bond or merge the two storms? If Ishar regains his sanity for a little bit, I don't think it would be a stretch for Dalinar to bond Oathbringer (the sword) and his old set of plate (which I imagine as Windrunner plate). And perhaps that would give him access to 4 surges instead of two. The two from being a bondsmith, and two from the next closest orders, being Stonewards and Windrunners. 

I know if it is a straight up duel against a man, fused or Regal or Radiant Dalinar will win. But knowing Taravangian it could be a game of chess. 

 

On 12/11/2020 at 10:30 AM, dionysus said:

Rayse acknowledges that shards have to abide by the intent of their agreements, and can't use legal chicanery to circumvent them. So I doubt options like picking unkillable champions will happen, or more likely you think they are unkillable but the nature of being a "champion" will not be so simple. I suspect the twist instead will be that Dalinar winning will not be the victory everyone thinks it is, or that Dalinar losing will truly leave them with no options.

I think a nice reveal happened in the blurbs at the beginning of the chapters, chapter 34. "Since we are all essentially infinite, he needs no more power." I believe that merging shards does not grant one more power, but it unshackles the vessel from some of the restrictions imposed on him by his shard's intent. Except in a certain someone's case, where the opposite natures of the intents shackle him even more.

I think this might relate to the duel of champions and its aftermath in that I think we have enough evidence to conclude that shards have infinite power but also massive restrictions on how they can use it (some seem to date all the way back to the original shattering). I have seen evidence of 3 limitations imposed on shards: 1. they cannot do things directly against the shardic intent, 2. there appears to be binding agreements that bind all shards, despite changes in vessel, that date to the original shattering (ie t they can only directly impact people who place themselves by their own choices into their power or opposed to their power.), and 3. they are bound by agreements they make after the shattering.

 

What if the aftermath of the duel is that some of these restrictions fall away, for both Honor's side and Odium's side. In essence it is the conclusion of pacts made in the past. Now obviously, Dalinar and Odium will have to abide by what they agreed would happen for the winner and loser. But remember Dalinar is not working with full knowledge of what the old pact even had in it. I suspect Dalinar's lack of knowledge of the terms of the original pact will have huge implications.

I think perhaps you are all thinking to small. All three win a kind of victory but not one they expect unless that is what Cultivation has been planning all along.

Dalinar becomes Honor either during or as a result of the contest then he Odium, and Cultivation combine forces with Harmony to challenge Trell and straiten out the cosmere as a whole. Passion restrained by Honor and empowered by Cultivation allied with balance to form a coalition that has the potential to counter the corrupting effects of power evident in bearers of the shards throughout the Cosmere.

Dalinar becomes the General voluntarily that Odium wanted but not in the way he expected as a slave but instead as a partner. Harmony will be added as a partner in either 2nd gen Roshar or 3rd gen Scadrial.

[LuckyJim]

Is there anything stopping Taravangian from fighting as his own champion, similar to how Dalinar is planning to fight on his own behalf?

I know Rayse was really into getting a champion, but would Taravangian do the same?

[Master Silver]

Another thought is, Odium can make the contest the war. @BenduLuke gave me the idea when talking abotu scale. The contest has no preset scale, as if it needs to be a duel. So just say the contest is to conquer Roshar, or better yet, to conquer Kohlinar (fused get defenders advantage lol). 

[BenduLuke]

7 minutes ago, Master Silver said:

Another thought is, Odium can make the contest the war. @BenduLuke gave me the idea when talking abotu scale. The contest has no preset scale, as if it needs to be a duel. So just say the contest is to conquer Roshar, or better yet, to conquer Kohlinar (fused get defenders advantage lol). 

So you are saying the Champions are leaders of forces.

That could still lead to Dahlinar becoming Honor and the three forming a coalition to correct the rest of the cosmere gathering allies against shards like Trell in stormlight era 2.

Then all 3 win and lose at the same time after all Dahlinar and Terevangian are friends and Cultivation is involved with both.

[+Bzhydack]

On 10.12.2020 at 5:08 PM, Jon said:

So I think a lot of us having been considering that the contest will be the climax of book five, but I'm beginning to wonder if that will actually be the case. Given that there are only 10 days until the contest, and there is a lot left to tie up that would take longer than that, I think it may be a real possibility that the contest takes place in the first or second act of the book, and the rest of the book deals with the fallout. 

I had the same thought. I think contest will START the 5th book, and Dalinar would win it... only to discover it doesnt really matter, because Ishar was influenced by Odium to the point he starts some sheninganings with his unchained powers. Ishar thinks he saved Shin from Unmade, but probably he is under controll of one of them. Tod will be chained to the contract, but Ishar would work for him and will free him.

On 10.12.2020 at 9:40 PM, Lupis said:

So many possible loopholes. The wording says they have to send a champion on the 10th hour of the 10th day to Urithiru, however it doesn't actually specify they have to meet then. One of them could take the long road.

Also, as this is the cosmere, what does "to the death" even mean? They didn't clarify.

If I were Dalinar I'd be seriously considering naming Nightblood as my champion, asking if it wanted to destroy some evil, and chucking it into the dueling arena for Odium's champion to deal with...

Nightblood is wild card. It can literaly destoy anything, so even if Dalinar would fight against something immortal, its enough he will be wielding Nightblood and immortality doesnt matter anymore.

[Banazir864]

I was thinking the same thing as OP: T-Odium will deliberately tie, thus freeing himself from the contract that was part of his predecessor's failed gambit.  How I'm thinking it will happen is that Odium's champion will get Dalinar cornered, with no way to avoid the killing blow, only to declare the match a draw.  This would also be suspenseful, since it looks like Dalinar is going to lose, when in reality T-Odium has bigger concerns.

[Kaladin Is a Hero]

I don't know this contest is a mystery. All the suggestions I have seen so far are good and possible. But I feel like in the end the contest is going to turn out kind of like the scene with Taravangian ascending in this book. It will be unexpected, not the direction we were all expecting, but somehow the clues will all add up to make perfect sense. 

 

Personally, I am a huge fan of the theory that @Xerun presented that Dalinar will fight Gavilar-as a cognitive shadow or something. Man, that would be dope, and it would make so much sense and expain why we have been seeing a different perspective of the night of his "death," in every book of the SA first half. With every book, we have dug deeper into Gavilars secret doings and I think that is very purposeful on Brandon's part. He would not keep revisiting Gavilar and his plans if they/he did not mean something significant for the present story. 

We'll see...

[Sara Stormblessed]

 

So there I was revisiting "The Dog and The Dragon" as one does, and I was ruminating on Wit saying, "I have violated our agreement which exposes me to his direct action." Just as I was casually thinking, "It's a good thing Odium didn't catch them in that bubble," my brain broke.  Odium stole Wit's memories, and Wit has been EVERYWHERE. His trying to hide in plain sight at the end of Oathbringer suggests that this isn't his first time breaking his agreement with Odium, and I suspect he has made a habit of violating his agreements with all the Shards in his meddling. Now, Odium likely has access to many or all of those little secrets. So what if:

1. Odium uses this breach of contract to force Wit to be his champion, but Wit is still held to whatever agreement prevents him from harming people. Then Dalinar:
   1. Refuse to kill Wit = Tie
   2. Kills Wit and the whole Cosmere loses an important ally = Cosmere-wide chaos
      • Figuring out all the things Wit had done to protect people becomes a new plotline, similar to the plotlines in Mistborn 2 & 3. His secretive nature becomes a real kick in the pants here.
2. Odium uses this to kill Wit directly, and all the other Shards are so pissed that they break their contracts to attack Odium = Cosmere-wide chaos
   • It's unlikely that they love Wit as much as we do, but maybe they'll find some fault in Odium's action that sends them over the edge. 
3. Something about Wit's violation of his agreement with Odium opens up an opportunity for T-Odium to weasel out of other contracts, such as the contest of champions or the Rosharan system.

Also note that Wit said something like, "I have never died when killed," to Jasnah, which could have been foreshadowing that his ability to die will come up eventually.

 

Unrelated reactions to other posts:

On 12/3/2020 at 1:01 AM, Solant said:

I think Dalinar has 10 days to figure out how to piece Honor back together

You mean Dalinar will take all the splinters of Honor and "unite them"??? That's a great catch! I hope you're right, regardless of who takes Honor's place.

On 12/29/2020 at 11:27 PM, Kaladin Is a Hero said:

Personally, I am a huge fan of the theory that @Xerun presented that Dalinar will fight Gavilar-as a cognitive shadow or something.

Based on Brandon's note at the end of Secret History, I find it doubtful that he will play the cognitive shadow card again. It is possible, but he definitely said he wants to limit his resurrection of characters.

On 11/28/2020 at 1:17 PM, DiePie said:

 Todd can do whatever the frik he wants, 

You all are killing it at the nicknames. Todd is my favorite so far. Stormdad and Mr. T are close seconds. Are you guys also pronouncing Todium as TOADium and imagining Mr. T as an actual toad in gentleman's clothes?

Edited January 3, 2021 by Sara Stormblessed

[Kitch]

There was a WoB saying that Todd(I like this one too) didn't steal the memories, but destroyed them. 

 

I'm a fan though if T using Wit as his champion. That puts the contest in basically a never-ending loop. Wit can't be killed and Wit can't kill. That keeps the contest going until one of them does.....Dalinar of old age so T wins. 

 

Though I don't see this happening. The contract says that the champion must be willing.  Either way though, I expect the overall contest to end in either a draw, or not end at all. 

 

[Sara Stormblessed]

13 hours ago, Kitch said:

There was a WoB saying that Todd(I like this one too) didn't steal the memories, but destroyed them. 

Can you direct me to these WoB? I must investigate this! 

[AquaRegia]

2 hours ago, Sara Stormblessed said:

Can you direct me to these WoB? I must investigate this! 

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/452-youtube-livestream-23/#e14523

[Orlion Blight]

12 hours ago, AquaRegia said:

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/452-youtube-livestream-23/#e14523

Well, that's just a good stream of questions!

[Vissy]

In terms of Cultivation and Taravangian/Odium... I don't think Taravangian wants to try to bite the hand that feeds him. Odium, the Shard, is -wounded- already. Cultivation could absolutely leave Odium shattered or completely paralyzed if Taravangian tried to kill her. So I don't think it's just as simple as Taravangian just being able to manipulate a Shard like it was no problem. I think Cultivation clearly has the upper hand in their current relationship and has ideas and plans that Taravangian can only guess at.

[+Child of Hodor]

1 hour ago, Vissy said:

In terms of Cultivation and Taravangian/Odium... I don't think Taravangian wants to try to bite the hand that feeds him. Odium, the Shard, is -wounded- already. Cultivation could absolutely leave Odium shattered or completely paralyzed if Taravangian tried to kill her. So I don't think it's just as simple as Taravangian just being able to manipulate a Shard like it was no problem. I think Cultivation clearly has the upper hand in their current relationship and has ideas and plans that Taravangian can only guess at.

I think Rayse, the vessel was wounded. The power is OK. The wounds the Stormfather talks about in OB Ch. 38 were to the vessel which made it harder for Rayse to hold on to the power. 

Quote

"He saw that his predecessor had been sliding toward oblivion for a long, long time. Weakened by his battles in the past, then deeply wounded by Honor, this being had been enslaved by the power. Failing to claim Dalinar then losing the tower and Stormblessed, had left the being frail. Vulnerable.

But the power was anything but frail. It was the power of life and death, of creation and destruction. The power of gods."

  - Taravangian's thoughts after Ascending in RoW Ch. 112

But, to your point, Odium is not in a great position, the power is bound by the predecessor's agreements including one that trapped it for thousands of years. Whatever investiture it put in the Fused, the Unmade or other people/places in physical or cognitive realms it can't use for other purposes right away. 

I also agree that Cultivation has some tricks up her sleeve / contingencies for new Odium and has the upper hand. Whether it will work out or not who knows. 

Predictions: Champion Switcharoo Shenanigans and Shards Merging

I am into the idea of Dalinar doing something similar to what Ishar tried to do to Dalinar when Ishar tried to take the Stormfather's bond and Dalinar's status as the person Odium made the contest of champions agreement with. Dalinar will use bondsmith powers to  mess with who is the champion of who by taking their status and giving it to someone else. This would get him around the "baby champion" problem.  Btw I think Kaladin's baby brother fits the suckling babe death rattle better. It's still someone Dalinar knows and would make Kaladin dread his past repeating. 

Dalinar could do the reverse of what Rayse tried at the end of OB, make Taravangian Honor's champion. The power of Odium is bound by the agreement Rayse made with Taravangian to spare anyone born in Kharbranth. In order for Odium to win Taravangian has to die. 

As for the end state of the world going into the big 10-15 year break: I like the idea of Odium either merging with one of the other two shards or, get torn in half and it's remnants getting absorbed by Cultivation and Honor (Dalinar).  

Rayse says Dalinar was not supposed to "Ascend"  (OB Ch. 122). This means Dalinar at least temporarily can be the holder of the remnants of a Shard. Why can't a shard vessel like Koravellium Avasat Ascend to hold a piece of Odium? Dalinar was deeply connected to Odium his whole life "Child of Odium" per the Nightwatcher in OB. In that same chapter Cultivation takes a piece of Dalinar. She says it will be useful to have a piece of him. This could give her enough Connection to Odium to hold part of Odium. 

If the piece of Dalinar she took isn't enough Connection to Odium, her lover was murdered. She's had thousands of years to be in her feelings about it. She has probably felt strong emotions like hatred for a looong time. 

I feel like a shard combination will happen before the break because I think we'll see multiple radiants hit their final Oath in book 5 and while we haven't explored all surgebinding has to offer we'll have seen a lot of it and almost no voidbinding. What the Fused are doing isn't voidbinding, only Renarin (and now Rlain) has some, I guess, but we don't understand it at all. I know Renarin is a back 5 character, but I feel like voidbinding needs to rise in importance to the plot in order for Brandon to give us new wrinkles on the magic. 

Cultivation and or Honor merging with Odium would force the issue, making whatever the heck voidbinding is more plot relevant in the back half. 

Sja-Anat "enlightening" one Truthwatcher spren a year isn't going to cut it. I think it's more an indication of where things are going. It's also possible that Sja Anat can mess with Radiant spren now because Cultivation wants it and is allowing it. Only the heavily Cultivation-tilted Truthwatcher spren have been "enlightened" of the Radiant spren. Sja-Anat spren were instrumental in what happened with Renarin/Taravangian/Nightblood/Rayse which was very much a Cultivation plot. Sja-Anat probably isn't aware of Cultivation's influence, that would risk giving the game away to Rayse. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Child of Hodor

[Requiem17]

On 12/30/2020 at 1:27 AM, Kaladin Is a Hero said:

 It will be unexpected, not the direction we were all expecting, but somehow the clues will all add up to make perfect sense. 

Personally, I am a huge fan of the theory that @Xerun presented... With every book, we have dug deeper into Gavilars secret doings and I think that is very purposeful on Brandon's part.

I'm enjoying how much of a mystery this is and how terrifying Teravodium is. Taravangian as Odium terrifies me more than any Shard ever has. Of the theories I've seen Gavilar has my vote too. I can't imagine who else would be a better character growth moment for Dalinar, besides the foreshadowing people have quoted from the books. 

My one issue is I don't know if I can believe that Gavilar would win. 

But that would align with y'all's "tie" plan, or some other Taravodium plan, and he is just using the Champion as a feint the entire time. 

The only thing I disagree with is a tie would allow Taravodium to be free of the Rosharan system. I can see back five Taravangian getting free, but not front five. 

My mind is going in circles and everything seems possible though. Great setup by Brandon.

[SecondPlace]

What bothered me the most is that it appears as if cultivation meant for Taravangian to replace Rayse, this seems like a shot in the foot to me unless she still has something else planned. I don't think that we have seen the last of her plans.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Truthless16