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I think it’s pretty obviously Gears. We haven’t seen any evidence of a 3rd Roleblocker, and that’s the only possible way Gears is village. 

IF YOU ROLEBLOCKED SOMEONE THE CYCLE THAT READING SURVIVED, PLEASE TELL. 

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12 hours ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I’ve been suspicious of Quinn for a while now, so I’m going to go with my gut on this one.

Well, I can't argue against a gut-read since there's nothing substantive about it to argue against. I suppose if I asked what I've done that was sus you'd list basically the same things that Vapor and Jester have, so I guess I won't ask...

But I will say that I'm sort of suspicious of anyone at this point who targets someone other than Gears and completely ignores the rather strong reasoning that says we should vote Gears out. 

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I really don't get the voting for Quinn. She's the reason we even know about Gears in the place, and she's a roleblocker. The other TLR claim to Quinn is enough for me to believe Ash was telling the truth to me about being contacted by TLR. And the elims would have definitely killed Gears off last cycle itself in a double tap ( @Matrim's Dice, please confirm if it's possible. If someone with an extra life is lynched and targeted with a kill in the same cycle, they lose both their lives?) to finish off our PMs. Gears

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Sun be praised, I have a lot to catch up on.

Sorry for my absence, everyone. My internet has been giving my fiance and I severe problems lately, and two more of my uncles are unfortunately not in good health because of the pandemic. Life seems to be normalizing for the moment, however, so I'm going to work on reading through everything I missed. 

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1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

@Matrim's Dice, please confirm if it's possible.

A double tab with the lynch and the kill would kill a Spiked or TLR in one cycle. The lynch would use up their extra life, and the kill would finish them off.

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8 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Well, I can't argue against a gut-read since there's nothing substantive about it to argue against. I suppose if I asked what I've done that was sus you'd list basically the same things that Vapor and Jester have, so I guess I won't ask...

But I will say that I'm sort of suspicious of anyone at this point who targets someone other than Gears and completely ignores the rather strong reasoning that says we should vote Gears out. 

Fine. Gears. You'll be my target next cycle.

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21 hours ago, Danex said:

I think it’s pretty obviously Gears. We haven’t seen any evidence of a 3rd Roleblocker, and that’s the only possible way Gears is village. 

IF YOU ROLEBLOCKED SOMEONE THE CYCLE THAT READING SURVIVED, PLEASE TELL. 

You can trust me! Or if you trust someone else more, tell them. But no one who’s claimed to me has died from either the lynch or the kill(although I think that’s about to change, since Gears claimed to all of us).

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On 11/22/2020 at 8:20 AM, Quinn0928 said:

Jester, currently we have 4 or 5 elims, and one TLR. That means that of our 16 players, the ratio of village-elim-TLR is either 10-5-1 or 11-4-1. To be on the safe side, we should assume it's 5 (remember, in QF48 the elims won primarily because the village assumed there were only 4 of us--let's not make that mistake this time). The elims will kill a villager this turn, and if we lynch in inactive player they're likely to also be village. So then the ratio will be 8-5-1. After that, if they avoid being lynched another turn, it will be 6-5-1 and they'll be at lylo. If we lynch one of them that turn, it will be 7-4-1, and they'll be within one turn of lylo.

My point is, depending on the number of elims we just can't necessarily afford to take risks, which is what we would be doing if we lynched anyone other than Gears without very solid reasoning--and I think it's reasonable to say that PM reasons no longer count (I know that I've cited them a couple of times in explaining my certainty that Gears is elim, but there are also plenty of non-PM reasons that we should lynch him and that he is likely to be an elim).

Ahh. Good point. I forgot about TLR. I’m still sus of you, but my main reason for that is your association with Gears, so I’ll vote him this round.

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Point taken Quinn but if Gears turns village you're lynched next cycle.

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Just now, Ghanderflaffle said:

Point taken Quinn but if Gears turns village you're lynched next cycle.

I mean...why? If gears flips village, the only additional info we have is that there’s a third RBer who’s staying quiet. 

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Just now, Danex said:

I mean...why? If gears flips village, the only additional info we have is that there’s a third RBer who’s staying quiet. 

Because Quinn is someone I’ve been suspicious of since C2, mostly a gut read.

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Just now, Ghanderflaffle said:

Because Quinn is someone I’ve been suspicious of since C2, mostly a gut read.

Why do so many people (Jester, Ghander, Vapor, etc.) gut-read me as bad....

Also I'd like to point out that at this point it's probably not the best idea to lynch people on gut-reads alone (and I don't just mean me, I mean anyone) because you can easily be wrong that way...

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16 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

Because Quinn is someone I’ve been suspicious of since C2, mostly a gut read.

Same. I missed C4 somehow, but C2 and 3 Quinn was acting weird about PMs and such. 

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Just now, Bearer of all agonies said:

Same. I missed C4 somehow, but C2 and 3 Quinn was acting weird about PMs and such. 

Well it is sort of hard to balance six or seven PMs and try to act on the information you gain from them without giving away anything that other people don't want widely known. 

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3 hours ago, Danex said:

I mean...why? If gears flips village, the only additional info we have is that there’s a third RBer who’s staying quiet. 

Unless Quinn was lying about RBing Gears, but yeah. I trust Quinn and I don't think she'd lie about this.

2 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Well it is sort of hard to balance six or seven PMs and try to act on the information you gain from them without giving away anything that other people don't want widely known. 

Oh my gosh, it's so true. I've had such a hard time in previous games. Not that I've had many previous games.

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13 hours ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

Point taken Quinn but if Gears turns village you're lynched next cycle.

Uhhh so I just reread this and you do realize that Gears can't turn up village, right? He survived last lynch, and since lynches can't be RBd (I mean, how would that work anyway?) he must be either a Spiked elim or TLR (and ik he isn't TLR for a couple of reasons--a different TLR has claimed to me, and it also just doesn't make logical sense for him to be TLR).

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13 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Why do so many people (Jester, Ghander, Vapor, etc.) gut-read me as bad....

Also I'd like to point out that at this point it's probably not the best idea to lynch people on gut-reads alone (and I don't just mean me, I mean anyone) because you can easily be wrong that way...

It's not a gut read.

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26 minutes ago, Vapor said:

It's not a gut read.

I wrote that post in response to you saying you suspected me, and I quote, "mostly on a gut-read." So that's why I said what I did. If you have other reasons to suspect me, you might want to share them, since I doubt you're going to convince anyone to lynch me on just a gut-read.

Edited by Quinn0928
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14 hours ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

Because Quinn is someone I’ve been suspicious of since C2, mostly a gut read.

You were quoting Ghander.

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1 minute ago, Vapor said:

You were quoting Ghander.

Oh, shoot, I'm sorry! I misread the name. In that case, I should clarify: I directed that post specifically at Ghander, who didn't cite any specific reasons at all. However, looking back at what you've said this cycle, I don't actually see you cite any specific reasons for voting me, just that you originally didn't want to vote Gears because you were worried that he was TLR. So, if it isn't just a gut-read, then why are you sus of me?

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A reads list, to make the most of the time before my end.

Village:

TJ. I scanned them, so it's a certainty.

Quinn: They've been very helpful in keeping me alive for this long, and I think an elim would have killed me the day I claimed TLR.

Noted but no read:

Danex: They proposed the chain. I'm actually leaning towards village for this, for some reason

Vapor: They seem to suspect Quinn for no reason. I don't like it. 

Ghander: Same as Vapor. 

Somebody: They've been a bit bandwagony this whole game.

Everyone else is just floating under my radar, because I am bad at reading people. Be a bit more active, yeah? I know RoW came out, but it's been a week. 

Edited by Gears
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I reread the entire thing. I don't fully accept that Quinn's village, and she would make a good information lynch, but a lot of my reads depend on Gears.

Quinn: Mainly depends on Gears. Null.

Somebody: I agree with Gears that he has been kinda bandwagony. But that might be just his playstyle.

Fadran: New. Don't want to lynch.

Gears: The lynch target. If village, lynch Quinn. If elim, Quinn's more likely to be village. Trusts Quinn...

Danex: Started chain on Gears. If Gears village, slight elim. If Gears elim, village.

Ghander: He has more of a gut read on Quinn, but... I don't know.

TJ: Gears seems to trust him. But is gears an RBer?

Sart: Mainly inactive. Can't say.

Jester: Mainly inactive.

Aman: Mainly inactive.

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20 minutes ago, Gears said:

A reads list, to make the most of the time before my end.

Village:

TJ. I scanned them, so it's a certainty.

Quinn: They've been very helpful in keeping me alive for this long, and I think an elim would have killed me the day I claimed TLR.

Noted but no read:

Danex: They proposed the chain. I'm actually leaning towards village for this, for some reason

Vapor: They seem to suspect Quinn for no reason. I don't like it. 

Ghander: Same as Vapor. 

Somebody: They've been a bit bandwagony this whole game.

Everyone else is just floating under my radar, because I am bad at reading people. Be a bit more active, yeah? I know RoW came out, but it's been a week. 

Okay, look. I would like to point something out. In the (likely) event that Gears flips elim, I don't want anyone to take Gears' read on me and TJ as proof that we're elims too, and here's why:

If Gears is an elim, he knows that we will find that out next turn. He knows that we, the village, will then instantly reevaluate everything he's said. Any elim who knows they're going to die would have to be incredibly stupid to tell us to trust their fellow elims. In fact, an elim who knows they're going to die would try to put as much distance between them and their fellow elims as possible, so that they aren't implicated. 

Of course, if Gears flips TLR then feel free to interpret his reads however you'd like.

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27 minutes ago, Gears said:

A reads list, to make the most of the time before my end.

Village:

TJ. I scanned them, so it's a certainty.

Quinn: They've been very helpful in keeping me alive for this long, and I think an elim would have killed me the day I claimed TLR.

Noted but no read:

Danex: They proposed the chain. I'm actually leaning towards village for this, for some reason

Vapor: They seem to suspect Quinn for no reason. I don't like it. 

Ghander: Same as Vapor. 

Somebody: They've been a bit bandwagony this whole game.

Everyone else is just floating under my radar, because I am bad at reading people. Be a bit more active, yeah? I know RoW came out, but it's been a week. 

 

8 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I reread the entire thing. I don't fully accept that Quinn's village, and she would make a good information lynch, but a lot of my reads depend on Gears.

Quinn: Mainly depends on Gears. Null.

Somebody: I agree with Gears that he has been kinda bandwagony. But that might be just his playstyle.

Fadran: New. Don't want to lynch.

Gears: The lynch target. If village, lynch Quinn. If elim, Quinn's more likely to be village. Trusts Quinn...

Danex: Started chain on Gears. If Gears village, slight elim. If Gears elim, village.

Ghander: He has more of a gut read on Quinn, but... I don't know.

TJ: Gears seems to trust him. But is gears an RBer?

Sart: Mainly inactive. Can't say.

Jester: Mainly inactive.

Aman: Mainly inactive.

 

*ahem* Apparently I´m so under the radar of Gears and Vapor, I don´t even get counted when Vapor lists the inactive people! :P Y´know, even though I have a PM with both of them.

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Just now, Condensation said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

*ahem* Apparently I´m so under the radar of Gears and Vapor, I don´t even get counted when Vapor lists the inactive people! :P Y´know, even though I have a PM with both of them.

Ohhh wow I hadn't even realized they left you out... even though I also have a PM with you...

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