+Whysper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said: Assume they accidentally targeted TLR. Now here's where my point is: if they target someone who isn't another elim, and they don't receive a message that they've been RBd, and that person survives, then they know that person must be TLR. Since they *also* know that that person has already aligned, they have to assume that that person aligned village because it has been pointed out multiple times that TLR only benefits from aligning elim if the elims are clearly winning, and it was *way* too early for TLR to tell yet. So what do they do? They target another kill at Reading, to eliminate TLR (who wouldn't be useful to them but extremely useful to us) and probably close PMs. Now, notice that they *didn't* do that. That means there is no way that Reading is TLR. But with the way PMs have just been causing confusion, and how leaving Reading alive allows people to wonder, they may have left them alive to cause even more confusion. Okay, but even so and assuming he's not TLR, Reading is then likely Villager, so why kill him?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said: Elims don’t know if TLR aligned with them, right? It doesn't matter. They would take the chance, since they lose nothing if they kill elim-TLR except the occasional extra vote, but if they kill village-TLR they get rid of the village's only alignment scanner, and they get rid of the village's PMs. 5 minutes ago, Whysper said: But with the way PMs have just been causing confusion, and how leaving Reading alive allows people to wonder, they may have left them alive to cause even more confusion. Okay, but even so and assuming he's not TLR, Reading is then likely Villager, so why kill him?? Because lynching Reading either kills an elim, or gives us the identity of one (since if Reading isn't an elim then Gears must be). Edit: And allow me to point out that if we lynch Reading and he's TLR, it probably means that *I'm* an elim, so that also gives you info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Whysper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Quinn0928 said: Because lynching Reading either kills an elim, or gives us the identity of one (since if Reading isn't an elim then Gears must be). The WGG is so unlikely that you are going to just end up killing a Villager. Again the Elims would have had to guess that RB shows up as a save when it usually doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Whysper said: The WGG is so unlikely that you are going to just end up killing a Villager. Again the Elims would have had to guess that RB shows up as a save when it usually doesn't. You're missing the point, Whysper. I'm not suggesting that we lynch Reading because he's necessarily an elim. I'm suggesting that we lynch him because if he *isn't* an elim, it'll tell us who is. Basically, we need more information and this is a way to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Whysper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said: You're missing the point, Whysper. I'm not suggesting that we lynch Reading because he's necessarily an elim. I'm suggesting that we lynch him because if he *isn't* an elim, it'll tell us who is. And that's Gears? But if it is like 90% or higher chance that Reading is Villager, then why not just kill Gears instead if you are certain that he would be Elim if Reading is Villager? The way I see it, it's like 90% chance Reading is Villager, 5% chance he's TLR and Elims let him live, and 5% chance Elims guessed on RBs showing up as saves and then did the WGG. And actually I think that last one for WGG is even lower than 5% chance. So if you are saying that we should lynch Gears if Reading is Villager, then it's almost certain we are going to end up doing that anyway, so why ML a Villager in the process? Anyway, even though I would have liked to give Gears a chance since I think we are missing something about the whole RB thing, I would prefer going directly for him instead of ML'ing Reading along the way. Going to place my vote since I need to head to bed now and can't be here for EoD. Gears Edited November 19, 2020 by Whysper vote 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Whysper said: So if you are saying that we should lynch Gears if Reading is Villager, then it's almost certain we are going to end up doing that anyway, so why ML a Villager in the process? Because if we kill Gears and he's elim, that doesn't actually tell us anything about Reading. Reading could be a villager, but it doesn't rule out that possibility that he was an elim who was WGGd by someone else other than Gears. And I'm actually inclined to think that WGG is more likely than you seem to think it is. If you're a spiked elim, and the village lynches you, then you're immediately in trouble. Since you survived, and since lynches can't be RBd 'cause how would that work, you must be either elim or TLR. You can get away with claiming TLR for maybe one round, but when the elims don't immediately kill you, enough of the village will likely assume you're spiked or elim-aligned that you'll get lynched and die. However, if you pull a WGG first turn, when no one expects it, then you essentially buy yourself permanent immunity. I mean, if we'd ended up lynching Reading first turn and he'd survived, he have been lynched last cycle or this cycle. As it is, he's already survived mostly without suspicion, so unless we choose to lynch him this turn, the plan has payed off pretty well, wouldn't you say? That doesn't mean I'm firmly convinced that the elims actually did that, but it could work out better for them than everyone's really been thinking. Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghanderflaffle Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Quinn Why are you fighting this hard to kill off Reading? I feel it is more likely for them to be the target of elims than an elim themselves. Also, this is pulling attention away from Danex and Fadran, which could be you trying to protect them as a fellow elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Ghanderflaffle said: Quinn Why are you fighting this hard to kill off Reading? I feel it is more likely for them to be the target of elims than an elim themselves. Also, this is pulling attention away from Danex and Fadran, which could be you trying to protect them as a fellow elim. Keeping in mind that I was the first person who *voted* for Fadran? I have nothing in particular for or against Danex, and I'm certainly not trying to protect them. Also I would argue that focusing on Danex and Fadran is distracting from lynches that could actually give us information. Those two are just shots in the dark, and we have no concrete evidence that something sus is actually going on with them. With Reading, though, we very very much do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Whysper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said: If you're a spiked villager, and the village lynches you, then you're immediately in trouble. Since you survived, and since lynches can't be RBd 'cause how would that work, you must be either elim or TLR. You can get away with claiming TLR for maybe one round, but when the elims don't immediately kill you, enough of the village will likely assume you're spiked or elim-aligned that you'll get lynched and die. Villagers can't be Spiked. That's faction specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Whysper said: Villagers can't be Spiked. That's faction specific. Oh, wow. I swear I can type you guys! Edit: I fixed it. It now says what it was supposed to, "spiked elim" Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Whysper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said: Oh, wow. I swear I can type you guys! Ahh, okay. I see, that was just a typo. Anyway, I still don't think it likely the Elims would even think of doing a WGG since there's no way to directly protect in this game. Again, they would have had to think about asking the host if RBing results in the same exact message as a TLR or spiked save. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said: Okay, I'm going to propose something. We all lynch Reading. Here's why: - We can be reasonably certain that Reading is not TLR. And aside from that, in the only case where he *is* TLR (his killer was RBd), he still has two lives. So we won't kill TLR in that case anyway. If we try to lynch Reading and he survives, again, we will know an elim was RBd because you can't RB a lynch so Reading must still have had two lives. So that means Gears is elim, or that someone else RBd and isn't saying anything (at that point, RBers, you really *would* want to say something). - If Reading is village, we can be almost certain that Gears is an elim, because Reading must have survived due to an RB. - If Reading is elim, that means that Gears is village and that it was a WGG. This is the lynch that will give us the most information; no matter what, we will peg an elim. I suggested this last cycle, for the same reason... but Whysper makes good points. I would much prefer to lynch Gears directly to remove the risk of mislynching a villager or a village-aligned TLR. I’m not particularly good with PM’s, but I don’t want to lose them either. However, considering Quinn’s insistence on lynching Reading, it’s giving me a stronger villager read on them. I simply don’t think an elim would want to put themselves out there, like they are doing now. I’m still hesitant to remove my vote from Danex, though. I don’t like the idea of letting the person who started this whole PM fiasco, which has done more bad than good in my opinion, live through this cycle. I don’t like how much they’ve stayed under the radar, even with three votes on them, there is little discussion about how suspicious their actions have been. If we lynch Danex here, I’ll be all for lynching Reading or Gears next cycle. If I don’t die that is... Edited November 19, 2020 by Ventyl grammar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ventyl said: I’m still hesitant to remove my vote from Danex, though. I don’t like the idea of letting the person who started this whole PM fiasco, which has done more bad than good in my opinion, live through this cycle. I don’t like how much they’ve stayed under the radar, even with three votes on them, there is little discussion about how suspicious their actions have been. If we lynch Danex here, I’ll be all for lynching Reading or Gears next cycle. If I don’t die that is... Ventyl, I get what you're saying about Danex, but the thing is, Danex could easily have meant well and just not thought it through or realized how chaotic it could get. And before you say that several people pointed that out, if the RBer (or the elim pretending to be the RBer) saw the first post, at that point it wasn't up to Danex what that person did. I would guess that the moment Danex posted about it, it was out of their hands, regardless what anyone else said, regardless of whether Danex is elim or not. So, that means that, like I said, Danex is a shot in the dark. Reading is not. Reading may be village, and if he is I apologize for the mislynch, but we will get solid information from his death either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 @Shard of Reading unfortunately hasn't been online in 20 hours... Gaaaaaah this really is a weird game. Apparently what comes from confusion is just more confusion. Danex, Gears, and Reading will all give a lot of information on their death, on various different people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Danex, Gears, and Reading will all give a lot of information on their death, on various different people. Who will Danex give us info on? And I still contend that Reading will give us more certain info than Gears. So unless someone can give me a good, hard solid reason why we shouldn't vote Reading rather than Gears, which I have yet to see, I can't imagine why any of you would have any objection to lynching Reading. Edit: After all, what do any of us have to lose? Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 The game Danex was a big pusher of making the PM web complicated. And his opponent in that debate (Books) is now dead. Danex has been active enough people can gather things from his death, if not much on Gears specifically. Reading also has a much bigger drawback if we’re wrong about him and he’s a village TLR. But I think he’s a better lynch than Danex. So, Shard of Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: The game XD fair enough... I'm trying to avoid that, so hopefully I'm not utterly, irrevocably wrong about the situation. Edit: Also I won't be on from 1 to like 1:45ish... (that is to say, from 15 minutes from now until an hour from now). I have a college interview, so... Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Quinn's reasoning is sound. It hinges on one key point: Reading is not and can't be TLR. Reasoning: If Reading is TLR, then the elim kill was not roleblocked (and if they are TLR and the elim kill was roleblocked, then they still have an extra life so the lynch is fine). The elims would know that they had not been roleblocked, so they would immediately know that Reading was TLR. It is strictly advantageous for the elims to kill TLR. If TLR is elim-aligned, they are useless at best and a dead weight at worst. If TLR is village-aligned, they are a potent tool that provides alignment scans and greatly helps the village. There is no downside to killing TLR, but doing so provides every benefit. If Reading is TLR and was elim-killed, they would be dead. Since Reading is not TLR, they are either a Spiked elim or a villager saved by the roleblock. Their alignment has implications for my alignment. However, the converse is not true. If I am a villager, they can still be a villager. If I am an elim, they can still be an elim. Therefore, we should lynch Reading for the most information. You are welcome to disagree and pursue a different lynch, but logic dictates that this is the optimal path, as I cannot see what information a Danex will offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 ... but if Reading can't be TLR... then the kill was roleblocked... and you were roleblocked... but... Oh, I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: ... but if Reading can't be TLR... then the kill was roleblocked... and you were roleblocked... but... Oh, I give up. Basically, either Gears is a very clever elim who figures the best way to deflect suspicion now is going with a plan that could definitively prove his alignment, or Gears is a villager and hopes lynching Reading will prove that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condensation Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Okay, I'm going to make a decision. I think lynching Reading will give us good information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 There is one hour remaining in the cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: There is one hour remaining in the cycle. Can I get a vote count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Danex: Sart, Ventyl, Fadran Gears: Somebody, TJ, Whysper Fadran: Reading, Kings Reading: Quinn, Ash, Gears, Connie Quinn: Ghander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Somebody from Scadrial Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Now that I've seen the situations I'm taking my vote off Gears he is village in too many of the situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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