Mid-Range Game 46: A Broken Imperium

[Condensation]

I have a problem. I keep forgetting to follow these. *sigh*

[Ashbringer]

Books is an interesting kill... although most of my attempts to understand Elim kills end in failure.

But, this makes things complicated. Was Turtle just going rogue? Was someone influencing him? Do we still think Elim!Gears was Roleblocked, or that Reading is TLR or an Elim? Too many questions.

[danex]

Hmm. So what motive would Village!Turtle have for not revealing who sent that Quinn message...

I can’t think of any feasible reason. Unless Turtle was very very certain that person was Village? And so they didn’t reveal that persons Identity for fear they’d be Lynched? But why would this anonymous person send that message to Turtle if they were Village? 

I am not sure what conclusion to draw from this...

Maybe we go back to Fadran? It really seems like they are just new, but I don’t think it’s logical to justify all possible inconsistencies by just saying that he’s new. Maybe he was lying about Turtle? Why would Village Turtle try to pocket Fadran like that anyway?

[+Whysper]

21 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

This is great. I'm not going to analyze the votes because I don't have time, but I will say that there are likely a large percent of the elim team on the turtle bandwagon. Also, I think we should go for gears now. (Reasoning? I got none. It's a gut feeling)

Actually it's more likely that most Elims are NOT on the wagon since they would already know it will result in a ML. Perhaps 1 or 2 jumped on anyway just for show. But I think most would avoid it.

[Quintessential]

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Maybe we go back to Fadran? It really seems like they are just new, but I don’t think it’s logical to justify all possible inconsistencies by just saying that he’s new. Maybe he was lying about Turtle? Why would Village Turtle try to pocket Fadran like that anyway?

Fadran wasn't lying about turtle; she admitted to me in our PM that she was the one who convinced Fadran to go PM Gears about me. (and Gears can confirm, as he has before, that she did in fact send him a message as well.) 

I don't know what this means for any of the other players, unfortunately... elim!turtle would have given us a lot of information, but I guess we probably should have realized that village!turtle would not. It's just that she was acting so suspicious that we all assumed she must be an elim (well, all of us except the elims, who we assume were all too happy to bandwagon). 

The fact that turtle was village doesn't necessarily mean that Gears is, or that he isn't, unfortunately. We could lynch him next I suppose, since if he is elim we can be relatively sure that he was actually roleblocked and that Reading is just village. Lynching Reading is tricky because if Reading is TLR, I suspect he aligned with the village (for PM reasons), and lynching village-aligned TLR will get PMs closed permanently, which cuts off our source of info. 

Despite the logic that says we should vote out Gears, though, I don't really *want* to. I gut-read him at this point as village... I just can't think of anyone else who's suspicious and could give us as much information as he could. So with that in mind, I'm starting off the voting with Gears though that is in no way set in stone and I hate to do it. 

Meanwhile, if someone else *did* RB, *please* PM someone you trust or try to figure out how to make the information public without exposing yourself. I wouldn't suggest doing another PM chain, since that had enough problems and its critics were right, there are too many ways for the elims to manipulate it. 

 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Hmm. So what motive would Village!Turtle have for not revealing who sent that Quinn message...

I can’t think of any feasible reason. Unless Turtle was very very certain that person was Village? And so they didn’t reveal that persons Identity for fear they’d be Lynched? But why would this anonymous person send that message to Turtle if they were Village? 

I was under the impression that turtle made up that message? That was what she originally said when pressed. She said she hadn't trusted Gears (due to the PM chain) so she'd wanted to mislead him.

Edit: Oh wait you mean the second time nvm ignore me

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

I agree with a Gears lynch but I honestly think it's possible Reading is TLR/Spiked I think Reading needs to claim in PMs. Also, sorry Turtle changing the PM chain was about the worst thing that you could have done.

[Shard of Reading]

Soo... Gears

My logic is as follows: Some how the message Quinn message got back to turtle right? Also the message was sent only to Gears. So, that means somehow someone found out about that message and sent it back to Turtle. Why? I don't know, but I do know, that the only reason that Gears would have to share the Quinn info was if Gears was telling his teammates. So that means Gears likely told the elim team, and they began to circulate it again. I know this isn't very well thought out but it's the best I've got.

If you got a Quinn was roleblocked message, the PLEASE tell us who sent it to you.

Edit: This was one of the largest consensuses I've ever seen in a voting cycle.

Edit 2: I was ninja'd but if you were wondering my role, I'm a normal vanilla obligator.

Edited November 17, 2020 by Shard of Reading

[ShrubSeph]

14 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

if you were wondering my role, I'm a normal vanilla obligator.

Off course, there is no way to confirm this, as TLR would show up the same way to a scan. (since their role is alignment specific)

Edited November 17, 2020 by Kings_way

[Shard of Reading]

Just now, Kings_way said:

Off course, there is no way to confirm this, as TLR would show up the same way. (since their role is alignment specific)

That is true, but you're going to have to trust me on this.

[danex]

I think I’m slowly becoming more sure that SoR is TLR. Village aligned or Elim aligned, I don’t know. Could be either. Could be neither. But I think that Reading is either TLR or maybe a WGG. I don’t think they survived because of an Elim being RBed. 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Shard of Reading said:

That is true, but you're going to have to trust me on this.

We could always, you know, kill you. But on a serious note Fadran is slightly nooby too nooby for Elim I think

[Quintessential]

Gah I can't believe I'm doing this, it directly contradicts what I *just* said.... I'm sorry if this seems sus, I promise there is a very very good PM reason that I can't say, but Gears Fadran

[ShrubSeph]

20 minutes ago, Danex said:

Could be neither.

Actually, TLR aligned last cycle (it was in the previous writeup, pg. 16 of the main thread(16!))

[danex]

2 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

Actually, TLR aligned last cycle (it was in the previous writeup, pg. 16 of the main thread(16!))

Yeah. I meant that SoR could be neither. As in, he might not be TLR. 

[Sart]

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Hmm. So what motive would Village!Turtle have for not revealing who sent that Quinn message...

I can’t think of any feasible reason. Unless Turtle was very very certain that person was Village? And so they didn’t reveal that persons Identity for fear they’d be Lynched? But why would this anonymous person send that message to Turtle if they were Village? 

I am not sure what conclusion to draw from this...

Maybe we go back to Fadran? It really seems like they are just new, but I don’t think it’s logical to justify all possible inconsistencies by just saying that he’s new. Maybe he was lying about Turtle? Why would Village Turtle try to pocket Fadran like that anyway?

There's a simple explanation for this. Danex is lying about Turtle receiving a Quinn message. Nowhere in Turtle's posts does he claim that he PM'd Danex saying that the Quinn PM had gone around to him. Here's what I think happened.

• Danex starts the (probably fake) PM chain saying Gears was roleblocked.
• The Gears chain completely takes off, flooding the PMs of Gears and Turtle.
• Turtle, convinced that Gears is evil, plots to trick him.
• Turtle sends fake information to Gears that Quinn was roleblocked instead.
• Not seeing any reaction from Gears, Turtle ropes Fadrian into the plan.
• Fadrian PMs Gears that Quinn was also roleblocked.
• The thread discusses the potential Gears roleblock, and a train forms.
• Not trusting Turtle, Gears does not spread the misinformation.
• Danex lies about Turtle being surprised at the Quinn chain going around, even though no such thing happened.
• Fadrian mixes up Turtle and Ghander, causing even more confusion.
• The lynch turns on Turtle, who by this point is completely confused.
• The confusion is cleared up regarding Fadrian, and Turtle's name is mud.
• Turtle is lynched.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

8 minutes ago, Sart said:

There's a simple explanation for this. Danex is lying about Turtle receiving a Quinn message. Nowhere in Turtle's posts does he claim that he PM'd Danex saying that the Quinn PM had gone around to him. Here's what I think happened.

• Danex starts the (probably fake) PM chain saying Gears was roleblocked.
• The Gears chain completely takes off, flooding the PMs of Gears and Turtle.
• Turtle, convinced that Gears is evil, plots to trick him.
• Turtle sends fake information to Gears that Quinn was roleblocked instead.
• Not seeing any reaction from Gears, Turtle ropes Fadrian into the plan.
• Fadrian PMs Gears that Quinn was also roleblocked.
• The thread discusses the potential Gears roleblock, and a train forms.
• Not trusting Turtle, Gears does not spread the misinformation.
• Danex lies about Turtle being surprised at the Quinn chain going around, even though no such thing happened.
• Fadrian mixes up Turtle and Ghander, causing even more confusion.
• The lynch turns on Turtle, who by this point is completely confused.
• The confusion is cleared up regarding Fadrian, and Turtle's name is mud.
• Turtle is lynched.

Small problem if Danex was Elim I would be dead, as he knows my role

[danex]

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

There's a simple explanation for this.

A simple explanation, and a simple rebuttal. Why didn’t Turtle call me out for lying about something as huge as that? Because I wasn’t lying. Turtle never claimed that I was lying in the Thread, and I’d be willing to bet that Turtle never claimed that I was lying in any PMs. Because I wasn’t. 

It would have to be an incredibly elaborate lie too. The whole bit about there being 2 PMs, about me trying to track down the Quinn chain to see if there was any possible way that Turtle could have received that message. Way too elaborate for Village!Turtle to not call me out. Turtle even said: 

Quote

I don't really have much to say.

So yeah, simple rebuttal. 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

2 minutes ago, Danex said:

A simple explanation, and a simple rebuttal. Why didn’t Turtle call me out for lying about something as huge as that? Because I wasn’t lying. Turtle never claimed that I was lying in the Thread, and I’d be willing to bet that Turtle never claimed that I was lying in any PMs. Because I wasn’t. 

It would have to be an incredibly elaborate lie too. The whole bit about there being 2 PMs, about me trying to track down the Quinn chain to see if there was any possible way that Turtle could have received that message. Way too elaborate for Village!Turtle to not call me out. Turtle even said: 

So yeah, simple rebuttal. 

And if you were an Elim I would be dead

[danex]

5 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

And if you were an Elim I would be dead

That too. 

[Quintessential]

13 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

And if you were an Elim I would be dead

Why would knowing your role make the elims instantly want to kill you, Somebody? I don't think Danex is elim, because they're right--turtle would have pointed out in the main thread or at least in PMs if they were lying. But I can't imagine that the elims would want to kill anyone who trusted them enough to tell them what their role was (or at least not specifically *because* you told them your role). What I gleaned from my four cycles as an elim last round is that you don't want to kill someone you've pocketed unless it serves a much greater purpose, and you know you've pocketed someone if they roleclaim to you.

Edit: also you're aware that saying something like that on the thread could very well convince the elims it's worth targeting you even if they *don't* know what your role is, right?

Edited November 18, 2020 by Quinn0928

[+Whysper]

4 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Meanwhile, if someone else *did* RB, *please* PM someone you trust or try to figure out how to make the information public without exposing yourself. I wouldn't suggest doing another PM chain, since that had enough problems and its critics were right, there are too many ways for the elims to manipulate it.

I was just thinking that perhaps we should all vote on someone we deem most likely Villager and then ask RBers to claim to them and give their RB info. Some new people might be very worried about judging who to trust, so doing this as a group might help. Also, we'll know for sure who the RB spokeperson is, and if something happens to the RBers soon afterwards, we have someone we can scrutinize as likely Elim. If the Elims want to play some kind of trickery and wait a few cycles before killing RBers so the RB spokesperson doesn't look as suspicious, that's actually just as well because then the RBers live longer and help out more.

 

[Condensation]

Just now, Whysper said:

I was just thinking that perhaps we should all vote on someone we deem most likely Villager and then ask RBers to claim to them and give their RB info. Some new people might be very worried about judging who to trust, so doing this as a group might help. Also, we'll know for sure who the RB spokeperson is, and if something happens to the RBers soon afterwards, we have someone we can scrutinize as likely Elim. If the Elims want to play some kind of trickery and wait a few cycles before killing RBers so the RB spokesperson doesn't look as suspicious, that's actually just as well because then the RBers live longer and help out more.

 

That does sound like a pretty good idea, but do we really have a good handle on who's an elim and who's not at this point?

[+Whysper]

2 minutes ago, Condensation said:

That does sound like a pretty good idea, but do we really have a good handle on who's an elim and who's not at this point?

Well, often we have lots of suspicions on Elims but aren't confident. But people often more likely have a couple strong Villager reads. So just need to know who people think is a strong Village read and then see if we have a consensus.

[Condensation]

I... actually don't have many reads right now. Maybe I should have read the first cycle. Or at least more than I did.

[|TJ|]

5 hours ago, Danex said:

I think I’m slowly becoming more sure that SoR is TLR. Village aligned or Elim aligned, I don’t know. Could be either. Could be neither. But I think that Reading is either TLR or maybe a WGG. I don’t think they survived because of an Elim being RBed. 

This post sounds very hedgy. I actually think Reading is village (or village aligned TLR) since Reading is now pursuing a lynch on Gears, and if Reading was indeed WGG'd elim, he knows Gears lynch and Gears flipping village would only implicate him. 

We still haven't heard from the presumed other roleblocker. I believe they would have told it to someone they trusted by now because if they die to an elim kill, they take the info with them. 

As I said last cycle, Gears being role-blocked (as an elim) is more likely than Reading WGG or the presence of another roleblocker for the reasons stated above. 

Edited November 18, 2020 by TJ Shade