Mid-Range Game 46: A Broken Imperium

[Turtle]

8 hours ago, Condensation said:

No... I'm rather confused. XD

I think she said it was either a monkey with a tie or a monkey with a hat, I completely forget.

Anyways, I think I want to defend Connie. I feel like Fadran isn’t sure what to do and I really don’t find anything he’s saying suspicious, let alone Connie (But I could be totally wrong like I often am). 

[+JesterLavorre]

I’m not going to be able to be super active this cycle, unfortunately. However, I’m going to bed now and should be able to post some analysis when I get up.

[Mat]

7 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Also can I have a vote count @Matrim's Dice @Lotus?

Should be:

Mist/Fadran (1): Illwei

Chasmgoat (1): Mist/Fadran

Amanuensis (1): Ventyl

Note that both of the Mist/Fadran votes were from before Mist was replaced.

[The Happy Obligator]

12 hours ago, Chasmgoat said:

the reason I "jumped on the chain" was that Connie and Fadran seemed to have had a conversation outside this thread and I was wondering where that was. It could have been an elim doc. But, It was apparently just a PM.

(Just to show my reasoning.)

Right, I was just a little bit suspicious that you voted them instead of just asking them about it. I guess that's sort of similar to a poke vote, in that if you vote for someone they're more likely to respond quickly.

Ok, let's try doing that myself because I want to hear from some more people.

@Ghanderflaffle Ghanderflaffle What is your take on Fadran/Condensation? Do they seem elim, or not?

Edit: Anyone want to PM me? I honestly am not sure who to PM, but if anyone would, that would be beneficial to both of us.

Edited November 14, 2020 by The Happy Obligator

[Shard of Reading]

So, I just skimmed the thread, and I'm supposed to be doing homework so I don't have much to say. I'm here and I personally support the day one lynch for reasons that Gears stated. @Channelknight Fadran here's some advice on finding elims: 

(Please note that this is not mine. I copied it from @Arraenae who posted it in the SE meta game discussion.)

Spoiler

Ways to find eliminators: an uncomprehensive list

I sent this in a PM to a new player, and thought that it would be worth reposting in here.

Here are some strategies for finding villagers and eliminators that I've used: comparison to standard player analysis, player-specific analysis, gut reads, connection analysis, and process of elimination. These aren't official names, just ones that I made up to categorize them.

Comparison to standard player is when you're comparing people to how you think the standard villager or eliminator will act. For example, eliminators generally want to keep their teammates alive, so they might vote to lynch a random villager over their teammate. If Player A makes some bad arguments for keeping Player B alive, and later you find out that Player B is an eliminator, Player A could be an eliminator who wanted Player B to live. Another thing is that eliminators want to seem like they're contributing to discussion without actually contributing to discussion, so pay attention to people who are using a lot of words to say very little, especially if they never mention who they are suspicious of and who they trust. Alternatively, look at players who post just enough to remind you that they're alive, but not enough to make their opinions very noticeable. Keep in mind, however, what makes up standard eliminator behavior can change over time. One eliminator activity is called bussing, where they will purposely lynch a teammate to gain trust, because lynch teammates is not considered standard eliminator behavior. Now that bussing has been around for so long, however, it's been accepted as something that some eliminators will do, and is a somewhat expected standard eliminator behavior. Standard villager behavior generally looks like someone who is trying very hard to find eliminators and lynch them. If someone has lynched multiple eliminators, they're almost definitely village. People who talk a lot are more likely to be village, but there are a few players who are very good at talking a lot even when they're eliminators.

Player-specific analysis is like comparison to standard player analysis, except that you compare people to how they've acted in previous games when they were certain alignments. For example, you might know that Player A always posts less often when they're an elim than when they're village. You might also know that Player B always gets lynched early when village, so you might decide to vote for someone else instead of Player B because they're probably village anyways. This can be confounded by players deciding to change their playstyle just because. Easier to do after playing a few games with people in this community.

Gut reads/tone reads are when you look at a player and decide that you don't like how they feel, but you're not sure why. Maybe their posts feel too slimy, or you don't like how they're weaseling around other player's questions. Alternatively, you look at someone and decide you trust them, but again you're not sure why. Gut reads are based off of your subconscious picking up cues that your conscious mind is missing. Some people have very accurate guts, other people don't. However, since gut reads are so difficult to explain, it's harder to convince people to vote along with you, and they're difficult to defend against.

Connection analysis is when you pay no attention to what people say and instead pay attention to what they do. Break everything down into votes, attacks without votes, defenses without votes, and defenses with votes (as in saying someone is village so you vote to lynch someone else). If you know that Player A is an eliminator, and Player B kept stating suspicion of them from very early on the game and voting on them, Player B is likely to be village. However, if Player B only ever half-heartedly stated suspicion of A, and never voted on A, they might be an eliminator trying to do some distancing. Usually eliminators don't care if villagers are up for the lynch, but they do care if their teammates are.

Process of elimination is when you figure out everyone in the game who you trust. Sometimes abbreviated as PoE. Usually the number of eliminators is around 1/5 of the number of players, or the square root of the number of players. Let's say a game had 25 players, and now it's down to 10. You think there are 5 eliminators. You know you are village, and you trust 4 other people, so the ones that are left must be eliminators. Generally a good thing to start doing towards the end of the game when there are fewer players.

These are the strategies that I know about. Other players use other strategies, so this isn't the one and only way to play the game. If you're lost, though, this list might give you some ideas on how to get started. I hope this helps.

Also, to me the Fadran/Connie seems more a coincidence with Fadran being a new player and Connie defending them. Now, for some RP:

Reading rubbed his eyes spikes. They throbbed from behind his large darkened sunglasses but it was a good pain. Soon, very soon there would no longer be inferior men in charge of the wonderful empire. He fingered his deadly murder weapon, the terrible lego in his pocket. Tonight someone would experience it's beautiful agony and they would come to meet there maker. He chuckled quietly to himself.

[The Happy Obligator]

4 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

So, I just skimmed the thread, and I'm supposed to be doing homework so I don't have much to say. I'm here and I personally support the day one lynch for reasons that Gears stated. @Channelknight Fadran here's some advice on finding elims: 

(Please note that this is not mine. I copied it from @Arraenae who posted it in the SE meta game discussion.)

This was actually very helpful for me because this is my first game as well. Most appreciated. I kind of agree with the day one lynch thing, but I don't feel suspicious enough of anyone yet to want to vote for them.

 

[+Whysper]

16 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Oddly enough, I was actually just thinking the same thing... it honestly doesn't seem to make much sense at all for TLR to align themselves with the villagers, because they have no way of proving they're on your side. With the elims, they do. 

How can the TLR prove themselves to the Elims? The Elims aren't notified. The TLR doesn't get access to the doc and doesn't know the Elims.

I think for most people, if they are TLR, they will want to align with the Villagers. It is difficult to play the lone wolf. They won't know the Elims right away and have to wait until they happen to scan one before they can safely communicate with them through PMs. If the TLR aligns with the Villagers, they can be much more useful throughout the game. They just need to scan a couple people they sense they can trust to find a Villager, then start communicating in PMs. Their scans will be useful for finding Elims and they can feed the info to the trusted Villagers. The TLR can help build a town core by letting Villagers know who they can trust.

Now an Elim might try to trick a Villager into thinking they are the TLR, so it might take a few cycles before trust can be developed. But in the long run, I think the TLR has the potential to really make a difference for the Villagers, whereas they can't do much but just hope they survive if they align with the Elims. Remember, the TLR actually has to survive to win with their team.

15 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

On the contrary, we have *every* reason to think about elim strats this early in the game. We want to figure out who they are, and also to survive, and one of the ways of doing that is trying to figure out what their next move is

15 hours ago, Illwei said:

Maybe it's just my playstyle (as I was also theorizing TLR ideas before it started :P.) but saying them out loud right when the game starts doesn't help anything. It might discourage TLR from doing those strats, but (my playstyle) I would much rather stay quiet and see what happens before saying anything

I side more with Quinn's line of thinking that communication is best in all this. We should be discussing Elim strats. It's not like they won't be discussing their strats anyway. Now if you think of something particularly special and something that has a high chance of being overlooked, then yeah, maybe keep something like that to yourself. But otherwise we should discuss potential strats.

13 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I don't think we should vote anyone out on the first day because we have practically no information and statistically we're more likely to lynch a villager than an elim.

13 hours ago, Gears said:

This is a matter of much debate and controversy. The current meta states that a D1 lynch is optimal. The arguments against are what you have stated. The arguments for are as follows: If we do not lynch someone, the elims will kill someone, and we'll be exactly where we were but down a player. In addition, the interactions during the lynch can provide information. I personally think the D1 lynch is good, but I still don't like to participate.

Yes, on the surface it always look bad when we start MLing Villagers. But that's the nature of the game. I think there are usually around 80% Villagers and 20% Elims, give or take a few percentages. So yeah, there's a much higher chance to hit a Villager with each lynch. But each night kill has 100% chance to hit a Villager. Or to express it another way, each lynch has 20% chance to hit an Elim, but each night kill has 0% chance. And with each night kill, Elims tend to take out the players who appear most like Villagers, so this just makes it even harder later to figure out who to lynch. So we need to take those small chances to hit the Elims while our numbers are getting reduced anyway.

12 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

If we don't decide to lynch a player C1, we'll literally be in the same position C2. That is, with no clue like it was the beginning of the game. Sure we can discuss, but when you make it clear that you want to retract your vote, it's easier of the elims to pretend genuine suspicion. C1 lynch forces elims to lynch villagers, so by seeing the reasons each people give to lynch others and by seeing voting patterns, we have some basis for the next cycle. If not, we're just as blank next cycle as we are in this. 

Yes, I like how this is expressed. And the mention of voting patterns is good. It can help later to see where people voted, or which people avoided voting. So if you are a Villager, you should to take a stand on each vote as best as you can. Don't worry that you might hit a Villager. It's going to happen a lot, especially at the beginning. Just make sure to express your reasoning for a vote so that people see your line of thinking.

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Everyone remember to upvote your GM (and co-GM) when applicable. It's hard work running these games, so it's the least they deserve.

How or where is this done? Sounds like a good idea.

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Whysper I see you viewing the thread as well. Any thoughts?

Ahh sorry, I might have been catching up on the thread on my phone while I was out, but didn't get all the way through to this yet. But this long wallpost has my thoughts so far.

 

[Channelknight Fadran]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Should be:

Mist/Fadran (1): Illwei

Chasmgoat (1): Mist/Fadran

Amanuensis (1): Ventyl

Note that both of the Mist/Fadran votes were from before Mist was replaced.

Heckin' heck, uh...

Chasmgoat

Is that the right font color?

[Shard of Reading]

6 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Heckin' heck, uh...

Chasmgoat

Is that the right font color?

Yes, that is the right color.

[Channelknight Fadran]

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

Yes, that is the right color.

Hooray! I have successfully done a thing for the first time in forever.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

2 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Hooray! I have successfully done a thing for the first time in forever.

Actually it's off a shade... Kidding but generally we use green not emerald, because emerald can't be used on Mobile

[Ghanderflaffle]

3 hours ago, The Happy Obligator said:

Right, I was just a little bit suspicious that you voted them instead of just asking them about it. I guess that's sort of similar to a poke vote, in that if you vote for someone they're more likely to respond quickly.

Ok, let's try doing that myself because I want to hear from some more people.

@Ghanderflaffle Ghanderflaffle What is your take on Fadran/Condensation? Do they seem elim, or not?

Edit: Anyone want to PM me? I honestly am not sure who to PM, but if anyone would, that would be beneficial to both of us.

I don’t really see either one as an elim, but if it's either one it's more likely Connie. Fadran just seems like a bewildered newbie (which they currently are ) so I don’t think it's either one at the moment.

[---]

2 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Hooray! I have successfully done a thing for the first time in forever.

31 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Actually it's off a shade... Kidding but generally we use green not emerald, because emerald can't be used on Mobile

Eh, It's fine. you can do the /color green or you can pick a green from the simple colors menu- it's all fine. I know that some GMs like people to bold their votes/retractions though to make it easier to see. 

 

[Turtle]

54 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I don’t really see either one as an elim, but if it's either one it's more likely Connie. Fadran just seems like a bewildered newbie (which they currently are ) so I don’t think it's either one at the moment.

Yeah, Fadran would likely seem more composed or just plain inactive if he were elim because of the elim doc, though my first game I was elim and asked some questions I had already asked in doc in order to be read as village, so I won't put too much trust in him because of that.

 

I won't be here for a while because of Dawnshard. 

Uhhh actually I'm back now because I was half way through Dawnshard when I wrote this so hi. 

Edited November 14, 2020 by eltruT
I wrote hemalurgist instead of elim... I don't know what to say.

[The Happy Obligator]

58 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I don’t really see either one as an elim, but if it's either one it's more likely Connie. Fadran just seems like a bewildered newbie (which they currently are ) so I don’t think it's either one at the moment.

Yeah, thats how I read it as well. Ghanderflaffle

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Hey, if I wanted to vote somebody and to tag them could I do this:  @Somebody from Sel  

Also Somebody

[Quintessential]

Just now, Somebody from Sel said:

Hey, if I wanted to vote somebody and to tag them could I do this:  @Somebody from Sel  

Also Somebody

Are you even allowed to vote for yourself?

[Flyingbooks]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Are you even allowed to vote for yourself?

Yes. Somebody did it on accident in LG71, and it counted as a vote.

[---]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

Are you even allowed to vote for yourself?

Yeah, people do it all the time

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Hey, if I wanted to vote somebody and to tag them could I do this:  @Somebody from Sel  

Also Somebody

I'd much rather you do them separately, next to each other.

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Are you even allowed to vote for yourself?

It does not break any rules.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Are you even allowed to vote for yourself?

I don't know but I'm not taking any chances

[Quintessential]

Just now, Illwei said:

Yeah, people do it all the time

 

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

It does not break any rules.

Wow, okay, good to know ig? lol

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Flyingbooks42 said:

Yes. Somebody did it on accident in LG71, and it counted as a vote.

I wasn't in LG71 you must have me confused with someone else

[Quintessential]

Just now, Somebody from Sel said:

I wasn't in LG71 you must have me confused with someone else

lol

[Flyingbooks]

10 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I wasn't in LG71 you must have me confused with someone else

Let me correct that. Somebody who is not Somebody from Sel did it.

Edited November 14, 2020 by Flyingbooks42