Mid-Range Game 45: A Trapper's Tale

[Mat]

57 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm reading this as village because I would think that otherwise questions would be asked in the Elim doc. unless both Reading and Turtle are Elims.

I agree with this read. That's what I thought as well.

That being said, I have a bit of a bad gut read on Reading. Not entirely sure what from, though I think it spurred from Illwei's comment on page one.

[---]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

That being said, I have a bit of a bad gut read on Reading. Not entirely sure what from, though I think it spurred from Illwei's comment on page one.

I mean, it was pretty terrible reasoning on my part, because I don't actually see why someone would do that. I guess his reaction is kinda suspicious to me though.

Not sure what I think of This though:

24 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

That was my thought. (Literally why I asked @turtle that)

Anyways Imma back off because I don't wanna end up tunneling, and since he couldn't think of the Elim distribution I'm going to pretend he's also a new player.

[Shard of Reading]

So these seem to be posts that people find suspicious. I'm going to explain why I'm not elim and then sign off for the day.

3 hours ago, Shard of Reading said:

We win when we kill all of the elims, but I think it would be a good idea to know how many there are. I didn't remember the average percentage and I knew people here would correct me, so I just overestimated because if we underestimated than we would end up killing too few people and I don't mind a little fictional blood on my hands if it means we win.

So, I originally said my prediction of the elim count so I could generate discussion (I guess I achieved my purpose) I guess in hindsight I should not have done it because people who actually knew what they were doing would figure it out more accurately than me. As for overestimating I thought that we would be better served thinking we would have to kill more elim's than we actually would. And as for this post I guess I did not articulate my thoughts on my reasoning very well.

37 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

That was my thought. (Literally why I asked @turtle that)

This was literally me just being egotistical. I thought it was clever of me and I wanted to show off. I just said that so I could get my ego fed and I should not have done that.

[CadCom]

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Let's get this started... @CadCom, you're a returning player, correct? Welcome back! Also, get poked! CadCom

Hi, I'm here. Yes, I'm a returning player. It's been a few months. 

Anyway, skimming the rules, is everyone supposed to have experience? because if so, can I get @Experience to PM me my experience level, or am I supposed to find that somewhere else?

Other than that, I'm going to hold off on major analysis until next cycle. After I've seen stuff actually happen, my analysis powers go up exponentially, so I will choose to wait. I would be happy to answer any questions though, as those are not part of my normal analysis.

[Mat]

30 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Hi, I'm here. Yes, I'm a returning player. It's been a few months. 

Excellent, welcome back! CadCom

31 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Anyway, skimming the rules, is everyone supposed to have experience? because if so, can I get @Experience to PM me my experience level, or am I supposed to find that somewhere else?

Only players with a role that activates traps have an experience level, such as the spy and the healer. Other Aviar don't have the activate traps addition, so you don't have an experience level if you're one of those. (Or don't have a role)

58 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

So these seem to be posts that people find suspicious. I'm going to explain why I'm not elim and then sign off for the day.

So, I originally said my prediction of the elim count so I could generate discussion (I guess I achieved my purpose) I guess in hindsight I should not have done it because people who actually knew what they were doing would figure it out more accurately than me. As for overestimating I thought that we would be better served thinking we would have to kill more elim's than we actually would. And as for this post I guess I did not articulate my thoughts on my reasoning very well.

This was literally me just being egotistical. I thought it was clever of me and I wanted to show off. I just said that so I could get my ego fed and I should not have done that.

Hmmm. I don't know if I'm satisfied with this.

First, never apologize for starting a discussion or sharing your thinking. That's a good thing! And we haven't figured anything out- just educated guesses based off past games. Which you have had less of, so that's easily excusable. Honestly, I can agree that overestimating is better than underestimating- but neither really matters, because when we hit that number we think the elims have, the game will either end, or it won't. That's just how that goes. The over/under debate isn't super useful. 

Second, maybe. Still I don't like the 'should not have done that'. It's fine.

I'll hold off my vote on you, as a new and returning player should get cut some slack. We'll see how my thought process on you evolves, though. 

[The Windrunner Supreme]

This is fun. And crazy.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

This is fun. And crazy.

You aint seen nothing yet. Just wait till someone dies.  

[Straw]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I agree with this read. That's what I thought as well.

That being said, I have a bit of a bad gut read on Reading. Not entirely sure what from, though I think it spurred from Illwei's comment on page one.

I've also had a weird gut feeling from Reading.

We should probably start some vote discussion now. One initial thing I noticed is that a lot of people in this game are new. I'm generally opposed to voting out new players on D1, as I don't have a great handle on how they operate, and because them not being familiar with the game might make me be more suspicious of them. So, removing all the people who haven't played a village vs elims SE game, we get this list:

Quote

Lord_Silberfarben
Ashbringer
Elkanah
Shard of Reading
Gears
Matrim's Dice
Vapor
Straw
Frozen Mint
CadCom
Illwei

I would propose that we vote out one of these people today. I'll put my vote on Shard of Reading for now.

Edited October 3, 2020 by Straw

[---]

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

I've also had a weird gut feeling from Reading.

We should probably start some vote discussion now. One initial thing I noticed is that a lot of people in this game are new. I'm generally opposed to voting out new players on D1, as I don't have a great handle on how they operate, and because them not being familiar with the game might make me be more suspicious of them. So, removing all the people who haven't played a village vs elims SE game, we get this 

Uh, *waves hand awkwardly(

Hi?

I mean, totally fine with you not voting on me, just-

Edited October 3, 2020 by Illwei

[Straw]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Uh, *waves hand awkwardly(

Hi?

I mean, totally fine with you not voting on me, just-

It looks like my screen chopped off the end of the list. I'll fix it.

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, Straw said:

I would propose that we vote out one of these people today. I'll put my vote on Shard of Reading for now.

I agree. Shard of Reading, but I'll see what he says tomorrow.

[The Windrunner Supreme]

30 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Uh, *waves hand awkwardly(

Hi?

I mean, totally fine with you not voting on me, just-

Lucky you

[---]

1 hour ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Lucky you

? What do you mean by this?

I wanted to say more right now but im out and about and on mobile

Edited October 3, 2020 by Illwei

[Ghanderflaffle]

6 hours ago, Shard of Reading said:

What do you mean?

You couldn’t ask me, as a new player, if I knew how to do things.

I say we hold off on lynching someone until we have more information.

[Gears]

13 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I say we hold off on lynching someone until we have more information.

Second of the Dawn thinks we should avoid killing someone until we have information. Fool. Do they not realise that killing people is how we gain information? The Traitors will kill someone ever night, and they kill people who are obviously trappers. This will not offer us much information, so we must gain information of our own by seeing how people react to killing someone. In particular, Traitors, with their foreknowledge of who is good and evil, may react differently than their ignorant counterparts. To take control of our source of knowledge, we must kill. Though Aviar can teach us many things, they risk the lives of their trappers via traps and Traitors, so best not to rely on that source. I hope the new trappers survive long enough to learn these things, though when Patji actively plots your death, that is a little difficult. Most trappers, even traitors, prefer to leave the new ones alive for a little bit. Traitors for their relatively low worth compared to taking out more experienced targets, trappers for the safety of the new generation. Patji has no such qualm, and kills without mercy.

[Mat]

34 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I say we hold off on lynching someone until we have more information.

As Gears just... eloquently... pointed out, the lynch is one of our main sources of information, and is the only one we can control. Analysis based of of noticing who voted who after an alignment flip is one of the best ways to catch elims. 

[---]

1 hour ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

You couldn’t ask me, as a new player, if I knew how to do things.

I say we hold off on lynching someone until we have more information.

Other places ive seen it reffered to as random vote [something or other] where as far as im aware yiu put random votes places to see peoples responses.

- but right now we're kinda needing to vote people to find information in the first place.

Edit: Ninjad by...everyone...? Didn't fully read through gears' posts until mow since they were RPs (or so I thought)

Edited October 3, 2020 by Illwei

[+JesterLavorre]

Well, not much to go on as of yet. I’ll vote when I get up tomorrow morning.

[Ghanderflaffle]

11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As Gears just... eloquently... pointed out, the lynch is one of our main sources of information, and is the only one we can control. Analysis based of of noticing who voted who after an alignment flip is one of the best ways to catch elims. 

I believe our main source of information is actually from our aviars, namely the spy. If we end up killing the spy day one we will lose a pretty important resource.

[Turtle]

12 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I believe our main source of information is actually from our aviars, namely the spy. If we end up killing the spy day one we will lose a pretty important resource.

Though I haven't played before I think this is true. I think we could get the most info by both lynching and spying on people and their aviar.

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, elturT said:

Though I haven't played before I think this is true. I think we could get the most info by both lynching and spying on people and their aviar.

Yes, obviously the aviars are useful and should be used (with caution)... and the lynch is as well. If Ghander doesn't vote that's fine, (more to analyse!) but I think a D1 lynch is typically a good thing.

[Gears]

17 minutes ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

I believe our main source of information is actually from our aviars, namely the spy. If we end up killing the spy day one we will lose a pretty important resource.

3 minutes ago, elturT said:

Though I haven't played before I think this is true. I think we could get the most info by both lynching and spying on people and their aviar.

The new trappers are so inexperienced. Do they truly think that we can trust the "Spy" to tell us the truth? Surely they see the danger in an elim claiming spy, or an elim who claims that the Spy is lying. Surely they see the inability of us plebs to confirm anything? Let us think of the possible scenarios.

1. We don't lynch, someone dies tonight, and the Aviar receive information. Elims easily hide on the first day by not saying much, blending into a backdrop of no discussion since everyone wishes to save their kill for later. We are in the same position, only down a trapper.

2. We lynch, someone dies tonight, the Aviar receive information, and we have trapper-trapper interactions to discuss. We can see who advocates leaving people alive, who piles onto a mild suspicion, who seems to be behaving oddly. 

We receive the same information overnight as we would, but if we lynch on the first day, we learn more. The day one lynch used to be a contentious issue, but now, it is mostly accepted as a matter of course. Aviar can be caught in traps, leaving our information sources gone, but lynching someone ensures public discussion.

[---]

Okay im not going to vote reading, because hes come back after a break and dying n1 isnt that fun.

Im a bit wary of gears (not going to vote on him either as he died n1 the past two games) as him playing through RP is an easy way to cover up potential elim slip-ups, and i havent seen him do it before.

[Shard of Reading]

So, first I want to say a few things.

1. I understand why you guys want to lynch me. I know I've been acting oddly but that is mainly because I suck at putting my thoughts into writing.
2. I think it is quite likely that I might be lynched tonight so I will give you my reads. (Very incomplete list)

Village:

Turtle/elurt- Mainly because of the question. You'll see when I flip village that there is no way that would actually work. (They have a aviar ablity)

Cadcom: Same reason as turtle. They asked a question they could have had answered in the elim doc. (They also don't have an aviar ability)

Neutral/leaning elim:

Windrunner Supreme: Mostly a gut read here. I have no idea why I think this. It could just be they are a new player, or they made a mistake, (Like me) but for some reason they give off elim vibes to me.

Gears: Mainly just his RP posts. This is slightly biased but I don't like his writing style and so I'm looking at his posts slightly jaded. He still seems to give off too much elim feel for me.

Elim:

Straw: Again, I'm biased (I don't like being voted on) but something about the way Straw put his vote on me seemed off. It could just be me being paranoid or he could be an elim. I have no way of knowing, but I figured I'd put my thoughts into a post.

As a postscript, if you guys do decide to lynch me, I will be sad because this is my first real game in awhile, but I will be fine with it because I think it will give you information to use once I flip village. I'm going to keep my vote off straw because it's more of a very vague hunch and I could be wrong. Lastly, if you want to have my explain my read's I'm not going to be able to do it much better than I did here.

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

So, first I want to say a few things.

1. I understand why you guys want to lynch me. I know I've been acting oddly but that is mainly because I suck at putting my thoughts into writing.
2. I think it is quite likely that I might be lynched tonight so I will give you my reads. (Very incomplete list)

Village:

Turtle/elurt- Mainly because of the question. You'll see when I flip village that there is no way that would actually work. (They have a aviar ablity)

Cadcom: Same reason as turtle. They asked a question they could have had answered in the elim doc. (They also don't have an aviar ability)

Neutral/leaning elim:

Windrunner Supreme: Mostly a gut read here. I have no idea why I think this. It could just be they are a new player, or they made a mistake, (Like me) but for some reason they give off elim vibes to me.

Gears: Mainly just his RP posts. This is slightly biased but I don't like his writing style and so I'm looking at his posts slightly jaded. He still seems to give off too much elim feel for me.

Elim:

Straw: Again, I'm biased (I don't like being voted on) but something about the way Straw put his vote on me seemed off. It could just be me being paranoid or he could be an elim. I have no way of knowing, but I figured I'd put my thoughts into a post.

As a postscript, if you guys do decide to lynch me, I will be sad because this is my first real game in awhile, but I will be fine with it because I think it will give you information to use once I flip village. I'm going to keep my vote off straw because it's more of a very vague hunch and I could be wrong. Lastly, if you want to have my explain my read's I'm not going to be able to do it much better than I did here.

You forgot me  

Illwei and you pointed out something that I had forgotten: Your first real game in awhile is this. Shard of Reading, that list was good enough (plus the first game in a while thing) that I'll release you.

@Lord_Silberfarben Lord_Silberfarben, you have been poked. I'm guessing that this would turn into a Contribution Crusade in future cycles when you're not active. So, speak, and this vote will be removed from you.