Long Game 70: Reforging Arelon

[---]

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

wow. Devotary was not at all who I thought they were going to attack. Who would have been worried about Devotary? I'm not saying there isn't good reason to be afraid of Devotary. They are very good at this game. I'm just guessing that would be the reason to target them. I'm not sure Kings Way would know Devotary's track record, so I don't think it was their idea. Time to go back and analyze anyone Devotary went after.

I would like to point out that no one pointed out that Devotary was a believer of Village!Adjudicator!Lotus, and was also a believer that Iadon probably wouldn't swap the roles. 

Lotus

Edited September 29, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

3 hours ago, Kynedath said:

The murderer ran away, taking the oddly shapped, bloody knife with them. Serenken slumped to the ground and screamed for help, trying to hold his intestines in his body. Shortly he was unconscious, and very soon after that, he was dead.

... I take it I probably don't need to put a darkness warning for AraRaash posts in the future 

Hmm. Losing an Actor this early isn't good, but there's some we can work out from this. Either Devotary was targeted by the kill directly, or she used her Actor ability on the person who was targeted. My guess is that would be Lotus, but who knows.

I don't know Devotary's playstyle that well, but from what I can see she's not the type to take unnecessary risks. Swapping with Lotus would be a... fairly obvious risk. Losing the possible Adjucator and suffering the penalty (which is not as bad as we once thought) seems better than losing an Actor N1. Although I suppose that would ultimately be up to Devotary.

 

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

I would like to point out that no one pointed out that Devotary was a believer of Village!Adjudicator!Lotus, and was also a believer that Iadon probably wouldn't swap the roles. 

Lotus

... so because Devotary thought Lotus was innocent, and now she's dead probably due to a redirect, that means Lotus is evil?

That's an IKYK that has a good chance of not even existing.

Hmm. @Lotus, if you don't mind answering, did Iadon swap your role? Not what to, just did he?

 

I'll try to make a read post tomorrow, but I need sleep.

[---]

43 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... so because Devotary thought Lotus was innocent, and now she's dead probably due to a redirect, that means Lotus is evil?

I can't tell if I should mark you sus for the conclusions I keep seeing you jump to, or if you are just giving me a sus vibe because maybe you're trying harder to mistrust me because of last game. 
I really have no clue how you took what I said to mean that I thought Lotus is an Elim. Maybe the vote? I'm voting lotus for reasons last turn.
What's the fun if you guys hide your white text so plainly obviously?
It seems most likely to me that:
Devotary, not trusting that Iadon would swap the roles, swapped places with Lotus:
  - if Lotus was village then that would be a good choice for village on a whole
  - if Lotus was Elim then either it wouldn't matter or it would get an Elim killed.
If this is true then I think the best choice is to vote Lotus, because I wouldn't want Devotary to die for nothing. 

I mean, I could see something where maybe Devotary decided to try and open a PM, or get extra income, and got targeted? I mean personally if I was an Elim then I wouldn't have killed them because they haven't played a game in a bit. Of course, there was that thing with MR42 and Orlok 

If I was an Elim and Lotus was village, then I would definitely target Lotus N1, as I don't see any drawbacks. No one has access to a protect, so either you hit the adjudicator, or you hit a villager. Small chance that Lotus is actually an Actor, and was baiting, but a small chance of hitting the Elim team probably. For all we know right now, Lotus could actually be an actor and swapped places with Devotary who also just so happened to be an actor. 

The other option is that we let Lotus go, continue and try to find the Elim team, and hope that we do fine. I don't really like that option though.

[+Lotus]

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @Lotus, if you don't mind answering, did Iadon swap your role? Not what to, just did he?

 

Yes. I am no longer a adjuntator

[ShrubSeph]

Oreo glanced around, nervous. Everyone seemed more on edge today, and Oreo couldn't blame them. Serenken's body had been found a few streets away from where they were  meeting today, and they still had no idea who had done it. He walked over to another merchant. "It's no wonder that someone here wants to sell us out to Fjordell. Look at us! Already squabbling about who to kill. Pathetic." Still, if they could survive this, they could build a country to rival Fjordell, although they would probably never reach the level of old Elantris.

anyone want to RP with Oreo? Warning: he will probably insult you.

I don't have much to say about the Muder and actor role swap mess. 

do we know if there is anyone with no role?

[Ashbringer]

6 hours ago, Illwei said:

I can't tell if I should mark you sus for the conclusions I keep seeing you jump to, or if you are just giving me a sus vibe because maybe you're trying harder to mistrust me because of last game. 
I really have no clue how you took what I said to mean that I thought Lotus is an Elim. Maybe the vote? I'm voting lotus for reasons last turn.

I don’t think I understand. You make a statment concerning Lotus, then vote Lotus with no further comment, and those two things are completely unrelated? And I’m suspicious for thinking they are?

I don’t really know how what you said would connect to Elim!Lotus, as it’s an IKYK and a half. But if you put them together, I will assume they’re meant to go  together within your reasoning and I will try to deconstruct the thought process that would connect them. What I posted was my result, which doesn’t look... logical. If they really are unrelated then that makes some sense, but you made it look like it was justification for the vote.

I probably am tunneling on you from last game, but that doesn’t discount that I can’t get a read at all on your intentions... among other things. And that makes me suspicious.

32 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Yes. I am no longer a adjuntator

Okay then... that changes things. I’m not sure how but it does.

[Mat]

6 hours ago, Illwei said:

I can't tell if I should mark you sus for the conclusions I keep seeing you jump to, or if you are just giving me a sus vibe because maybe you're trying harder to mistrust me because of last game. 
I really have no clue how you took what I said to mean that I thought Lotus is an Elim. Maybe the vote? I'm voting lotus for reasons last turn.

 

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I don’t think I understand. You make a statment concerning Lotus, then vote Lotus with no further comment, and those two things are completely unrelated? And I’m suspicious for thinking they are?

Illwei expressed suspicion of Lotus last turn, and that's why they're voting on her. Though I have to admit I thought that the statement and the vote were connected as well.

[Elkanah]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Okay then... that changes things. I’m not sure how but it does.

As I see it, what changed was it no longer helps us to lynch village Lotus.

Last turn lynching village Lotus "helped" us by avoiding a lynch restriction (that didn't end up happening).

Lynching elim Lotus clearly helps us because lynching elim anyone is how we win. 

Given that lynching village Lotus is pretty irrelevant (although there is a neat rabbit hole. I would claim to have had my role switched whether it was or not). We have lost a lot of the reason to lynch them. I doubt the lynch takes off for that reason. 

 

I am sticking with my vote on Xinoehp for a minute, although he would have been a good target for an elim Adjudicator.

My vote is from an analysis of his past elim games where he tends to be less active than his village games, and his relative trying to seem active without being alignment indicative in Day 1.

[+Ed Venture]

"Hello and good day to all of you!" Lawrence shouts, "Nick Knacks and trinkets, Art and oddities! All sold for a bargain here, at my fine establishment." Spinning around to grab a covered display case Lawrence rips it off with a shout, "This is a fine bracelet, made by an old ruler of Elantris for his wife, who was murdered the next night!" He holds it up letting the not-so-fine metal loops catch the light. "See how fine it is? See the beauty of Elantris?" Lawrence smiles broadly, "Well buy the beauty of Elantris from me, and take it home today!"

---

Ah Geez. Devotionary, whyyyy. Just lost a great player, to a horrific muder. 

So. Lotus admits to having their roles swapped around. Thank you Mr Iadon. Thank you. Unless Lotus was lying. Then we need to harm them in a lynch or something. But I think that I'm willing to accept their story. And it's unlikely that we need to lynch them to prevent the Elims from sabotaging the lynch.

By the way, I am currently Suspicionless. Disappointing. But I can do the current vote count, and then put a vote on.....hmmm. Illewi I agree that is it most likely that Lotus was attacked, and that's how Devo died. But that doesn't place suspicion or blame upon Lotus. I doubt an Elim would target themselves, and Devo, as their full name suggests, is a person of action. Defending Lotus was the best choice for the village........wait. Waitwaitwait. Lotus could not be both defended by Devo and have their role swapped by Iadon. So either Lotus is lying, or Devo was directly targeted. So.......maybe we do kill Lotus?

Votes:
Lotus (1): Illwei
Zino: (1): Elk
Illewi (1): Venture

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Okay, it’s time for my post by post analysis of Lotus! I did one of these in LG... I don’t remember the number, but it’s been too long and I need to get back to doing them. Although, I generally find it hard to read people from the content of their post, and not just their vibe, I can do it if I look into it long enough. Anyway, here we go!

Day One:

1) A simple RP post, something about a worldhopper . NAI
2) Claims “adjuntator,” I wonder if this spelling was supposed to be an intentional joke, or an actual misspelling of the role. Either way It does strike me as odd that she claimed the role, after we’d talked about not wanting one to be killed by the elims. This is either an extremely village move, or an elim who’s line of thought was along the lines of; “If I claim this role, they won’t kill me?!” 
3) After being asked why she claimed, says because she wants to try something new, this is going to be NAI. I can’t really fault someone for this, and I also can’t know if it’s true or if it’s just an excuse to avoid suspicion. 
4-6) A back in forth between Lotus and Illwei about the latter moving their vote off of Gears, there isn’t much to read from this, but with how easily Lotus just lets Illwei’s ‘explaination’ satisfy her, the conspiracy theorist in me wants to see a Lotus-Illwei elim team. That’s probably not the case though.
7) Claims they read the rules about adjudicator wrong, seems suspicious, like she’s trying to backpedal her way out of suspicion. This gives me an elim read. However, it could be a genuine misunderstanding, I would know because I did the same thing in LG67.
8) Warns about rollover, NAI.

Night One:

They didn’t make a single post the entire turn... could easily be discussion in the elim doc. Though, it could just as easily be they weren’t able to get on in time. This gives me a bad vibe, they also could’ve been in PMs, so if anyone was in a PM with Lotus I would like to know. 

Day Two:

9) Claims to have been roll swapped, this gives me an immediate elim read. One, this could easily be her lying so that she no longer has to worry about suspicion as an elim adjudicator, and this is what I think it is. The likely hood that they were an adjudicator in the first place is also low, so why they would lie about having the role, and then getting it swapped strikes me as something extremely suspicious. I tend to believe that lying about your role is a pretty elim thing to do. Yes, there are circumstances where doing so as village can be beneficial, but it can cause too much chaos in the village to be helpful. Sure it’ll generate useful discussion, but if you have an important role and end up being killed, because you lied about your role, it’ll be terrible for the village. 

40 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Lotus could not be both defended by Devo and have their role swapped by Iadon. So either Lotus is lying, or Devo was directly targeted. So.......maybe we do kill Lotus?

I was about to make this point, but I was ninja’d. This is one of the main reasons I think we lynch Lotus here, I had my reasons last cycle and now I have more. Sorry if some of this is pretty incoherent, I’m in a rambling mood right now. If you have questions about my vote, feel free to ping me about it.

So @Lotus, how do you plea?

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Ventyl
formatting

[Elkanah]

Soo, here is something you may find interesting. I have a PM with someone who is claiming either to be Iadon and switched Lotus' role or to have received the adjudicator role and told me what Lotus' new role is. I'm keeping it intentionally vague. It is still possible this person is an elim trying to cover for Lotus, but I am considering starting a PM with Lotus to see if the stories match up. Either way, I have a second witness that a switch took place.

[Vapor]

4 hours ago, Kings_way said:

Oreo glanced around, nervous. Everyone seemed more on edge today, and Oreo couldn't blame them. Serenken's body had been found a few streets away from where they were  meeting today, and they still had no idea who had done it. He walked over to another merchant. "It's no wonder that someone here wants to sell us out to Fjordell. Look at us! Already squabbling about who to kill. Pathetic." Still, if they could survive this, they could build a country to rival Fjordell, although they would probably never reach the level of old Elantris.

anyone want to RP with Oreo? Warning: he will probably insult you.

I don't have much to say about the Muder and actor role swap mess. 

do we know if there is anyone with no role?

I will RP with you. She'll insult you back.

Taeon pushed through the crowd, frowning. She bumped into a man talking to a merchant and looked up at him. "Hey, watch where you're standing," she said.

[---]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I don’t really know how what you said would connect to Elim!Lotus, as it’s an IKYK and a half. But if you put them together, I will assume they’re meant to go  together within your reasoning and I will try to deconstruct the thought process that would connect them. What I posted was my result, which doesn’t look... logical. If they really are unrelated then that makes some sense, but you made it look like it was justification for the vote.

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei expressed suspicion of Lotus last turn, and that's why they're voting on her. Though I have to admit I thought that the statement and the vote were connected as well.

I- someone tell me they understood my other post. My vote was unrelated to Lotus being suspicious. It was because if Devotary had swapped places with Lotus, then that means Lotus was attacked, which means the Elims are actively trying to kill the Adjudicator, which means we need to get there first. 

So, Matrim, the post was the reasoning for it, just not reasoning for a Elim!Lotus

But then Lotus posted this:

4 hours ago, Lotus said:

Yes. I am no longer a adjuntator

If I was Elim!Lotus, I would have not claimed that, as I could have hidden the fact that I didn't die behind Devotary's maybe swap. But also, why didn't the Elims kill Lotus? Personally Elim!Illwei would prefer a Village Adjudicator gone later rather than sooner, but gone rather than not. Not getting rid of Lotus D1 means that they probably wouldn't have another chance to. 

I would also like to mention that neither times did Lotus actually Claim "Adjudicator". Not sure If that's relevant

1 hour ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

I agree that is it most likely that Lotus was attacked, and that's how Devo died. But that doesn't place suspicion or blame upon Lotus.

This whole post doesn't give me good vibes.

1 hour ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

By the way, I am currently Suspicionless. Disappointing. But I can do the current vote count, and then put a vote on.....hmmm. Illewi I agree that is it most likely that Lotus was attacked, and that's how Devo died. But that doesn't place suspicion or blame upon Lotus. I doubt an Elim would target themselves, and Devo, as their full name suggests, is a person of action. Defending Lotus was the best choice for the village........wait. Waitwaitwait. Lotus could not be both defended by Devo and have their role swapped by Iadon. So either Lotus is lying, or Devo was directly targeted. So.......maybe we do kill Lotus?

Okay this brings me up to three. Can someone please tell me that they understood my post? Yes, Venture, That is why I was voting Lotus. because if Devotary defended them then The Elims are going after the Adjudicator.

36 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Soo, here is something you may find interesting. I have a PM with someone who is claiming either to be Iadon and switched Lotus' role or to have received the adjudicator role and told me what Lotus' new role is. I'm keeping it intentionally vague. It is still possible this person is an elim trying to cover for Lotus, but I am considering starting a PM with Lotus to see if the stories match up. Either way, I have a second witness that a switch took place.

So I mean this could be either Elim!WhoeverElkanahIsTalkingToInHisPMsThatHeDoesn'tWantToSayWhoItIsForSecurityReasons or Elim!Elkanah trying to...idk because I don't see this as a logical need to cover up move because if I was...Elim!Lotus.... You know, I don't know a lot about lotus. I don't know if maybe Elim!Lotus looked at the thread and went "Oh shoot! I need to say something!" because that definitely could have happened, because I don't know why an Elim!Lotus would claim to have been role swapped if she wanted to appear village.

So a summary of my thoughts because I apparently don't make things clear enough :P. :

  - Village!Lotus should have been NK'd
  - Elim!Lotus shouldn't have claimed role swap.

of course, it seems that Lotus was role swapped, so I guess it could be Elim!Lotus just not wanting to be caught in a lie.

But basically I'm keeping my vote on Lotus because there should have been no downsides in trying to NK her.

[+Ed Venture]

45 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Soo, here is something you may find interesting. I have a PM with someone who is claiming either to be Iadon and switched Lotus' role or to have received the adjudicator role and told me what Lotus' new role is. I'm keeping it intentionally vague. It is still possible this person is an elim trying to cover for Lotus, but I am considering starting a PM with Lotus to see if the stories match up. Either way, I have a second witness that a switch took place.

*blinks* Well that's strange. I guess Devo could just be a random kill, and...it seems like that's possible..but if it isn't.... Hmm, that means that someone would have to target Lotus with a kill, and Devo with the alignment change. I find that...unlikely? So yeah, it just makes so much more sense to say that Devo was just killed, and didn't defend Lotus. Which then makes it so that your mystery person claim, combined with Lotus claiming that their role changes, are all the more likely to be telling the truth. Which leaves me suspicionless, once again. 

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This whole post doesn't give me good vibes.

I understand. But you're claiming that an eliminator would target another member of the Elims in order to kill Devotionary. If Devo died defending Lotus, why would that make Lotus guilty?

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Okay this brings me up to three. Can someone please tell me that they understood my post? Yes, Venture, That is why I was voting Lotus. because if Devotary defended them then The Elims are going after the Adjudicator.

I understand, but that also means that the Elims are going after their own Adjudicator. Right? I think that's what you're saying is happening.

[---]

5 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

*blinks* Well that's strange. I guess Devo could just be a random kill, and...it seems like that's possible..but if it isn't.... Hmm, that means that someone would have to target Lotus with a kill, and Devo with the alignment change. I find that...unlikely? So yeah, it just makes so much more sense to say that Devo was just killed, and didn't defend Lotus. Which then makes it so that your mystery person claim, combined with Lotus claiming that their role changes, are all the more likely to be telling the truth. Which leaves me suspicionless, once again. 

I understand. But you're claiming that an eliminator would target another member of the Elims in order to kill Devotionary. If Devo died defending Lotus, why would that make Lotus guilty?

I understand, but that also means that the Elims are going after their own Adjudicator. Right? I think that's what you're saying is happening.

At first I had my vote on Lotus because it was likely they were still a Village Adjudicator

Now I have my vote on them because Elim!Illwei sees no reason not to try to NK lotus.

[ShrubSeph]

Illwei, are you saying it doesn't make sense that Lotus wasn't NK'd, so they must be an elim, because either:

• Devo used their actor ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK, meaning lotus lied about their role being changed by Iadon. because Devo's would've been changed instead
• Devo was NK'd and Lotus was role changed by Iadon
• some other situation I didn't think of

It would make more sense for the elims to NK Lotus, so if the second is true then Lotus is probably an elim. 

also, does elim![player] just mean the hypothetical situation where that player is an elim?

1 hour ago, Vapor said:

I will RP with you. She'll insult you back.

Taeon pushed through the crowd, frowning. She bumped into a man talking to a merchant and looked up at him. "Hey, watch where you're standing," she said.

"watch where your walking." Oreo replied gruffly. Honestly, young people were always rushing around as if they had somewhere important to be. "let me guess," he asked. "you running off to bother someone important? Get to it, then. I've got important business arrangements to do." He'd had to reschedule most of his appointments. No one seemed to want a late night meeting after what had happened to Serenken. The idiot shouldn't have been walking alone so late at night. His poor judgement had severely inconvenienced Oreo.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Kings_way

[Mat]

30 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

also, does elim![player] just mean the hypothetical situation where that player is an elim?

1 hour ago, Vapor said:

Indeed it does.

So even with online school I'm a lot more swamped than I thought I would be, so I can't really be on in the next 4-5 hours. I'll be back tonight with an analysis and probably vote. Thanks!

[Vapor]

26 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

Illwei, are you saying it doesn't make sense that Lotus wasn't NK'd, so they must be an elim, because either:

• Devo used their actor ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK, meaning lotus lied about their role being changed by Iadon. because Devo's would've been changed instead
• Devo was NK'd and Lotus was role changed by Iadon
• some other situation I didn't think of

It would make more sense for the elims to NK Lotus, so if the second is true then Lotus is probably an elim. 

also, does elim![player] just mean the hypothetical situation where that player is an elim?

"watch where your walking." Oreo replied gruffly. Honestly, young people were always rushing around as if they had somewhere important to be. "let me guess," he asked. "you running off to bother someone important? Get to it, then. I've got important business arrangements to do." He'd had to reschedule most of his appointments. No one seemed to want a late night meeting after what had happened to Serenken. The idiot shouldn't have been walking alone so late at night. His poor judgement had severely inconvenienced Oreo.

Taeon straightened up. "Well," she said sassily. "I am going to talk to someone important. Not bother. And they requested that I come there. So if you could move out of the way, if that isn't too hard for your old, arthritic bones, that would be great."

[---]

52 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

Illwei, are you saying it doesn't make sense that Lotus wasn't NK'd, so they must be an elim, because either:

• Devo used their actor ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK, meaning lotus lied about their role being changed by Iadon. because Devo's would've been changed instead
• Devo was NK'd and Lotus was role changed by Iadon
• some other situation I didn't think of

It would make more sense for the elims to NK Lotus, so if the second is true then Lotus is probably an elim

Er, I'm saying that Lotus is a good kill target because either:

• Devotary used their ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK
  • Lotus isn't an Elim because it was an attempted NK, and the Elims are actively trying to Kill Lotus, which means that if she is the Adjudicator it would be better to Vote her out
  • This whole point is irrelevant now that we know her role was swapped.
• Devo was Nk'd (or swapped with someone who was, because IDK who would kill Devotary as they haven't played a game recently. maybe that gives us hints as to whodunit), 
  • Lotus is more likely Elim because she wasn't targeted by the Kill. the assumption was that Iadon might be able to swap roles before Lotus was killed, there was no assumption imo that Lotus would survive
  • There's also the..er...option? that the Elims ruled out Lotus for some Meta reason, but I have no clue what that would be and why it would be stronger than not attacking Devotary.

So with reason 1 there is no assumption that Lotus is an Elim, but the assumption that if she actually is the Adjudicator then we should vote her out rather than have her be NK'd. 

Honestly targeting Lotus would have been not only an option with no Downsides, but the best option. You'd either hit (1) The Adjudicator, (2) An Actor, or (3) Lotus, not the Adjudicator. 

[Ashbringer]

I've been ninja'd... a lot. Sort of. So here's my general thoughts:

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Soo, here is something you may find interesting. I have a PM with someone who is claiming either to be Iadon and switched Lotus' role or to have received the adjudicator role and told me what Lotus' new role is. I'm keeping it intentionally vague. It is still possible this person is an elim trying to cover for Lotus, but I am considering starting a PM with Lotus to see if the stories match up. Either way, I have a second witness that a switch took place.

Okay. For now I think we can safely say that Devotary wasn't targeting Lotus. If she was, then Iadon's swap wouldn't be able to go through. In turn, that would say that the Elims didn't try to kill Lotus.

Hmm. Perhaps a test: is there anyone else who claims to have had their role swapped, or more specifically have had their role swapped where the other individual couldn't be Lotus?

If Lotus is sticking with Adjudicator being swapped away, then anyone else who got a different role could prove that didn't happen. Although that leans towards Elim!Lotus, which would mean that if Devotary protected Lotus then the Elims would have had to tried to kill one of their own... and failed... but Devotary could have protected anyone. 

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Er, I'm saying that Lotus is a good kill target because either:

• Devotary used their ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK
  • Lotus isn't an Elim because it was an attempted NK, and the Elims are actively trying to Kill Lotus, which means that if she is the Adjudicator it would be better to Vote her out
  • This whole point is irrelevant now that we know her role was swapped.
• Devo was Nk'd (or swapped with someone who was, because IDK who would kill Devotary as they haven't played a game recently. maybe that gives us hints as to whodunit), 
  • Lotus is more likely Elim because she wasn't targeted by the Kill. the assumption was that Iadon might be able to swap roles before Lotus was killed, there was no assumption imo that Lotus would survive
  • There's also the..er...option? that the Elims ruled out Lotus for some Meta reason, but I have no clue what that would be and why it would be stronger than not attacking Devotary.

So with reason 1 there is no assumption that Lotus is an Elim, but the assumption that if she actually is the Adjudicator then we should vote her out rather than have her be NK'd. 

Honestly targeting Lotus would have been not only an option with no Downsides, but the best option. You'd either hit (1) The Adjudicator, (2) An Actor, or (3) Lotus, not the Adjudicator. 

I think I understand your voting logic now, but I didn't understand it before. Next time probably just add something in front of the vote signaling to where you're getting it from if you're referring to another post.

 

But there's a bit of a problem with this logic: that "some Meta reason". Just looking at the rulesets, the best course of action for the Elims likely would have been to try and kill Lotus, get that vote penalty, and call it a day. The problem is, it's very obvious it's a good play. The Elims know it, the Villagers know it, and after the debate in D1 I'd say nobody has an excuse not to know the risks. And that turns and makes it not so great of a move. (This continues assuming Village!Lotus.)

1) Being predictable is dangerous for Elims. In many games there's more of a chance of protection; here it's not so easy especially in the first few rounds, but there's still a lingering idea of not killing the person most likely to be protected / Lookout-ed (ie Teamwork in LG69) / redirected. (The same applies to Villagers - the more predictable we act, the more the Elims can work around us. 2) Continuing on that vein of predictability, Iadon swapping Lotus was nearly ordered by the Village. And while killing a role swapped Lotus isn't a "loss", it's also not really any better or worse than killing a random, especially since there are other targets for Elims to be killing. And it leads into the last part: 3) Setting up a mislynch. Lotus isn't dead; why? Her being an Elim would certainly explain it, but it's not the only explanation.

This is, of course, almost the definition of I-Know-You-Know, so don't take this as a full-on accusation (... yet ). There's a lot of other things that could happen, like Iadon interacting with Devotary's Actor ability weird, possibly two Actors, and an Elim or even a believing Iadon covering for an unswapped Lotus. Or she could be an Elim.

Speaking of which, does anyone else find it weird how votes never really stuck to Lotus D1? Just TJ's and Ventyl's (well, and Gears's).

...

I don't think my vote will go on either Illwei or Lotus. I'm weirded out by both, but between Illwei bias from LG69 and relative certainty that Lotus isn't the Adjudicator anymore I don't know if either deserve my suspicion. Depends on responses I guess.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

3) Setting up a mislynch. Lotus isn't dead; why?

This was a theory of mine, but I was going to wait and see if anyone joined me in voting Lotus besides Ventyl before saying anything.

[Mist]

I think the elims chose to reputation kill Devotary. There was a generally known plan to have Iadon switch Lotus's role. If they had killed Lotus, they might have ended up killing an Adjudicator, or someone else with no benefit, whereas killing Devotary removes a dangerous villager. It's also possible that Devotary switched with someone other than Lotus. In addition, Lotus's role was successfully switched, as corroborated by Lotus and Elkanah. 

The elims could be prioritizing hunting for the spy, which Lotus likely was not.

I think gaining group PMs will be beneficial and not difficult to achieve, especially as only at least one vote on four people is needed. 

Reads list to come. 

[Ashbringer]

38 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This was a theory of mine, but I was going to wait and see if anyone joined me in voting Lotus besides Ventyl before saying anything.

...?

That was a rhetorical question.

[---]

37 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

...?

That was a rhetorical question.

I-

Can someone tell me I'm not going insane? are people purposefully misunderstanding me? did I misunderstand you?

After voting on Lotus I thought that there was a possibility that leaving Lotus alive would help the Elims run a train on Lotus because of this? 

Someone who hasn't posted yet please read through my posts and tell me they make sense.

[Mist]

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

I would like to point out that no one pointed out that Devotary was a believer of Village!Adjudicator!Lotus, and was also a believer that Iadon probably wouldn't swap the roles. 

Lotus

At first, I thought these two were connected, which was confusing. You've explained since then. 

The next makes sense, although there's some points I don't agree with. It explains your first post this cycle. 

There is the positive to killing Devotary that they're removing a dangerous villager. 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

This was a theory of mine, but I was going to wait and see if anyone joined me in voting Lotus besides Ventyl before saying anything.

This makes sense and is probably part of why the elims didn't NK Lotus.

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I-

Can someone tell me I'm not going insane? are people purposefully misunderstanding me? did I misunderstand you?

After voting on Lotus I thought that there was a possibility that leaving Lotus alive would help the Elims run a train on Lotus because of this? 

Someone who hasn't posted yet please read through my posts and tell me they make sense.

I have posted, but here.

Essentially, your first post was confusing, but you explained it. The rest of your posts make sense, although I don't agree with parts.