Long Game 70: Reforging Arelon

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Ventyl, not sure I understand your reasoning.
You are saying that you are usually chaotic to prompt discussion? and so you think that gears is doing that, so you vote on them? Not sure I understand that reasoning.
I don't see gears being particularly chaotic exept for the Elim claim, which people should just ignore at this point (though I do think that his "Analysis" was particularly unhelpful this game, being more of a summary with added "Stay alive" and "welp, if this is your role you shouldn't die" .
One of my strats is to be chaotic D1 (not exactly to prompt discussion though....) so I can't exactly fault someone else for doing that. I do admit that it is sus though...

Wrote this before you said it was a "joke vote" but idk I'm just not buying that totally yet. Ideally I would have gotten on and also voted for gears but too late now :P. 
 

My reasoning was more along the lines of, “He’s stealing my strategy! There can only be ONE MWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA”

[Ashbringer]

Onwards to real game stuff (@Kynedath - does "game-related posts" for the income include RP posts?).

First of all, I have been poked by Matrim and then... unpoked? For posting RP? Hmm.

Elkanah is once again going full force into asking questions, which I think is good, although there's a certain something he pointed out that irks me, which... I said last time, but this feels... more solid, but also minor. And there's no real motive for Elims to ask questions in-thread. So Village lean here.

Other than that, nothing stands out to me much. Gears being Gears, Ventyl being Ventyl, Elkanah being Elkanah, a few inactives but none that wouldn't be expected (cough Xino cough). There are a few things I spy that could be suspicious if they continue, but for now I'll leave it at that. I'll point them out if they become a pattern, and I'll try to post a more fleshed out analysis tomorrow, but between school, the Reckoners reboot, and possibly playing two games at once I'm not sure how active I can be on weekdays.

 

1 hour ago, Gears said:

[@Ashbringer, you have a talent for prose. Have you ever considered writing a novel? If so, act on these considerations at once. If not, begin considering]

Aww... thanks! I have been considering taking up writing, for a bit, but I tend to not write my ideas down and therefore get trapped in a worldbuilding spiral. It's something I hope I can try over the summers.

Of course, I said that last summer...

[Kynedath]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Onwards to real game stuff (@Kynedath - does "game-related posts" for the income include RP posts?).

I'm counting RP currently, although the intention is an activity incentive so I prefer more.

[+Lotus]

Hi, sorry I forgot about this for some reason.

Anyway, you know what, I’m going to go way outside my comfort zone and tell everyone right off the bat that I’m a adjuntator.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

First of all, I have been poked by Matrim and then... unpoked? For posting RP? Hmm.

As far as I can recall, a poke vote (or at least the kind I use D1) is used only to generate activity. Mine did its job: Tagging you, and then when you showed up the vote served no purpose as I was decently sure you wouldn't just RP and go inactive.

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Elkanah is once again going full force into asking questions, which I think is good, although there's a certain something he pointed out that irks me, which... I said last time, but this feels... more solid, but also minor. And there's no real motive for Elims to ask questions in-thread. So Village lean here.

Hmm, mind telling us what?  Just fine if you'd like to keep that info, though.

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Hi, sorry I forgot about this for some reason.

Anyway, you know what, I’m going to go way outside my comfort zone and tell everyone right off the bat that I’m a adjuntator.

So.... uh... @Gears, @TJ Shade, how do you view the elim!adjudicator now?  

[Gears]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So.... uh... @Gears, @TJ Shade, how do you view the elim!adjudicator now?  

I expected at least one village adjudicator. Perhaps two. However, a village adjudicator is not particularly useful, so it would be no great loss if we were to lynch Lotus for being an adjudicator. If no other possibilities appear by the end of the cycle, we should lynch them. 

---

Kadio laughed. As it turned out, Sunwalker the Unlucky was a judge. "Kill them," he said coldly. "Everything to gain if we do, nothing to lose if we don't."

Edited September 27, 2020 by Gears

[---]

I know what I was thinking earlier, but-

Gears

Yeah that's where I'm going to be at for now

[Ashbringer]

48 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Anyway, you know what, I’m going to go way outside my comfort zone and tell everyone right off the bat that I’m a adjuntator.

... why? One of three roles that give a direct bonus to the Elims upon death, and you claim D1?

 

49 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As far as I can recall, a poke vote (or at least the kind I use D1) is used only to generate activity. Mine did its job: Tagging you, and then when you showed up the vote served no purpose as I was decently sure you wouldn't just RP and go inactive.

... okay... do you have any other reads of note?

 

 Can't really quote over multiple pages but while I don't like Lotus's claim, I don't think it's lynch-worthy unless we really want to take that 50% vote requirement bonus away from the Elims. Or think she's an Elim!Adjudicator. So I'm not really liking Gears' vote here. 

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

 Can't really quote over multiple pages 

I'll start by saying that you can with that plus button by the quote one. I discovered this last game and it was like Why didn't I know this existed before.

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... okay... do you have any other reads of note?

Other than my slight/gut village on Elk and Gears? Not really. I'd say the only person who's done anything I'd consider suspicious is Kings_way, and I'm actually just thinking that's more new-playery than elimy. Thoughts on Lotus below.

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

but while I don't think it's lynch-worthy unless we really want to take that 50% vote requirement bonus away from the Elims. Or think she's an Elim!Adjudicator. So I'm not really liking Gears' vote here. 

I'd agree that lynching Lotus because we're afraid of an elim adjudicator is a bad idea. But if there really are no other options it has some benefits, and there'd always be the analysis of who pushed their lynch and who didn't depending on her flip. But I'd lean on not at the moment. 

Still, claiming that isn't really helpful. @Lotus, what made you claim?

Edited September 27, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[+Lotus]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Still, claiming that isn't really helpful. @Lotus, what made you claim?

To be perfectly honest because I’ve been experimenting with different SE playstyles and I figured it could be fun to see how this one works!

Edited September 27, 2020 by Lotus

[Gears]

22 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

 Can't really quote over multiple pages but while I don't like Lotus's claim, I don't think it's lynch-worthy unless we really want to take that 50% vote requirement bonus away from the Elims. Or think she's an Elim!Adjudicator. So I'm not really liking Gears' vote here. 

I... completely forgot about the adjudicator death penalty because I'm an idiot and a plebe undeserving of life. I'm keeping the vote there until a better option arises though.

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'd agree that lynching Lotus because we're afraid of an elim adjudicator is a bad idea. But if there really are no other options it has some benefits, and there'd always be the analysis of who pushed their lynch and who didn't depending on her flip. But I'd lean on not at the moment. 

It's mostly a placeholder until any suspicions arise. I don't particularly believe Lotus is an elim. I don't not believe they're an elim, but still.

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, Lotus said:

To be perfectly honest because I’ve been experimenting with different SE playstyles and I figured it could be fun to see how this one works!

...That's it? I mean, like, okay...

I probably won't post again today and will be less active tomorrow. I will vote, though.

[Ashbringer]

7 minutes ago, Gears said:

I... completely forgot about the adjudicator death penalty because I'm an idiot and a plebe undeserving of life. I'm keeping the vote there until a better option arises though.

But that’s the thing: the penalty is if the adjudicator’s killed by an attack. If she’s lynched, it doesn’t happen.

That’s why I’m hesitant to vote on you or her. Even if she is Village, lynching her now keeps that penalty out of Elim hands, wheras the only way to protect Lotus D1 is if the Monk does it or an Actor does a suicide swap (or possibly Iadon saving the role, not Lotus). I just don’t know if it’s worth lynching someone who’s probably Village.

[Gears]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

That’s why I’m hesitant to vote on you or her. Even if she is Village, lynching her now keeps that penalty out of Elim hands, wheras the only way to protect Lotus D1 is if the Monk does it or an Actor does a suicide swap (or possibly Iadon saving the role, not Lotus). I just don’t know if it’s worth lynching someone who’s probably Village.

Alas, I am doubly a fool. Option 1: Lynch Lotus, ensuring that we do not take a penalty. Option 2: Ignore Lotus, most likely allowing the elims to kill them. Option 3: Plan a rescue mission involving a martyr Actor or the great King Iadon. Option 3 is better than Option 1 is better than Option 2, but Option 3 is risky and unreliable because 1: Most people are not willing to be martyrs and 2: The King could swap the role with an elim. Option 1 is guaranteed, but we do lose an adjudicator. We definitely should get a lynch to open PMs, so I'll leave my vote on Lotus for now. If a better lynch target comes up, I'll switch off.

[ShrubSeph]

The only person that I'm getting suspicious vibes from is Gears, but everyone's saying that's how he always is, so I'm not sure about that. 

[Gears]

5 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

The only person that I'm getting suspicious vibes from is Gears, but everyone's saying that's how he always is, so I'm not sure about that. 

Could you elaborate on your suspicions? I am well aware of the fact that I claimed elim, but I vow upon something valuable that this strategy has merit and will be beneficial in the end. However, other than that, I don't think I've done anything particularly worthy of note.

[ShrubSeph]

You have displeased the all powerful vibes. 

Not much, you just seemed to be making lots of accusations, and I wanted to post my thoughts.

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Kings_way said:

You have displeased the all powerful vibes. 

Not much, you just seemed to be making lots of accusations, and I wanted to post my thoughts.

Alright. I tend to accuse people rather than trust them because I am well aware of my susceptibility to well-reasoned analysis. However, don't listen to me. You're new. You have to learn to stand without the opinions of others supporting you. Do things because they make sense to you, not because they actually make sense. I believe in your capabilities. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Lotus claiming doesn't seem like an elim strategy, but assuming she is an adjudicator we don't want her to be night killed. Requiring majority vote isn't an insurmountable barrier, but it's definitely inconvenient. I wouldn't blame Gears for wanting to eliminate that possibility, except forgetting that there was a death penalty that only applied to a night kill makes it look like a fear that any adjudicator who claimed would automatically be an elim, which I don't understand. There had been enough discussion of an elim adjudicator that I doubt one would claim.

Having Iadon swap someone else's role with Lotus could work, but the odds aren't incredible. With village Lotus, we have 4-5 players who would automatically fail to be swapped with her, and then Iadon and the Executive Secretary would definitely be worse to lose. That's about half of the non-Lotus players in the game. It's still worth it to try as only one of those possibilities makes us worse off than before.

Well, the Elantrians were done for as a major power, Serenken thought as they read the reports of the Fjorden saboteurs. They never would have allowed King Iadon to have come to power and then potentially lose it if they'd been around. Rooting out the Fjordish priest's minions and giving Iadon a chance to prove whether he deserved to be in charge would be accomplished without their interference. These Fjordish could easily be worse than the Jeskeri. She couldn't imagine someone could actually believe they, or anyone, would live to see a day when every single person on the planet belonged to a country bowing to a Derethi ruler, but decades of instruction (or a few sacks full of gold) were fine replacements for common sense. They'd also heard rumours of a Dakhor monk, one who perhaps thought the unification of humanity and the rebirth of Jaddeth could be achieved atop the shattered corpses of every single person not equally devoted to the cause. If such an individual had infiltrated Kae, such an appetite for murder eventually would be noticed and potentially stopped by those who preferred dominion over destruction. Whatever the case, this was her chance to help establish Arelon as a truly independent nation for once, and no amount of infiltrators would be an obstacle for long.

[Elkanah]

Wow, things happened. Give me a bit to catch back up. Loving this activity though!

[---]

7 hours ago, Gears said:

I expected at least one village adjudicator. Perhaps two. However, a village adjudicator is not particularly useful, so it would be no great loss if we were to lynch Lotus for being an adjudicator. If no other possibilities appear by the end of the cycle, we should lynch them. 

So I mean, you saying this before you apparently remembered that if Lotus is attacked (and telling the truth) doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, I can see it making sense on way, but that way still doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

5 hours ago, Lotus said:

To be perfectly honest because I’ve been experimenting with different SE playstyles and I figured it could be fun to see how this one works!

I do see this as more of an Elim move than a Vil move, but that's because I was under the Impression that if the Adjudicator was voted out then the penalty would also happen, as we would be less likely to kill them if that were true. I guess that doesn't really hold up, and i get Lotus saying that she's trying different things, but it still seems like an elim move to me.

3 hours ago, Elkanah said:

Wow, things happened. Give me a bit to catch back up. Loving this activity though!

This sounds like you were going to read over and then respond, but you never responded?

[Gears]

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lotus claiming doesn't seem like an elim strategy, but assuming she is an adjudicator we don't want her to be night killed. Requiring majority vote isn't an insurmountable barrier, but it's definitely inconvenient. I wouldn't blame Gears for wanting to eliminate that possibility, except forgetting that there was a death penalty that only applied to a night kill makes it look like a fear that any adjudicator who claimed would automatically be an elim, which I don't understand. There had been enough discussion of an elim adjudicator that I doubt one would claim.

I saw no other options for a lynch, considering we have no other suspicions at the moment. If that changes, I might switch off, though given the penalties, perhaps I won't. While I don't think Lotus is an elim, the claim is the best lead we have thus far. Odds are they aren't an elim, but we get PMs, don't get a penalty [which is retroactive reasoning, but no less convincing, hopefully], and might catch an elim Adjudicator. If we assume that an elim Adjudicator exists, then Lotus has a 1/3 [or 1/2, depending on the distribution] chance of being the elim [this probably is affected by the claim, but I don't know enough about people to predict that], which is at least marginally better than the 1/5-1/4 chance of a random person being an elim. As stated, I will switch off if any more pressing suspicions arise.

[Mat]

10 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lotus claiming doesn't seem like an elim strategy, but assuming she is an adjudicator we don't want her to be night killed.

If we dare to stray into IKYK territory, it's possible elim!Lotus saw the discussion on an elim adjudicator and claimed, thinking there's no way they're gonna think an elim adjudicator claimed after that. But that's pretty specific. I think that's what Gears and maybe Illwei are leaning more towards, which makes Illwei's current vote on Gears interesting as I think they are agreeing on Gears' vote on Lotus. I'm not sure how I view that, I'm probably more on the less aggressive side of Gears' thinking, if there are no other good options, yes we should have a unified lynch and yes, lynching an adjudicator would have some benefits to it. But I'll keep my vote for now

@TJ Shade, any thoughts on the current situation? You posted some earlier in the turn and have now vanished. Sorry if you had said you were gonna be less active this game or this turn specifically and I forgot.

[Elkanah]

Here is the dreaded multiquote 

17 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

*nods* So, I often never vote. Hated Poke Votes. I'm attempting to turn that around this game, see? I'm going to vote every cycle this time. Just cause I never vote most of the time. I don't see Voting as an Elim thing, and Poke Voting both gets people talking, and helps get rid of people who don't talk. I'll admit, Gears, come on? Causing chaos doesn't help the Villagers. But you're claiming Elim, which means you want chaos. so it might be better to just get rid of you anyways. But I'm getting off Track. Not trying to skate by, just trying to get @xinoehp512 to post. M'kay?

I actually really appreciate that. It gives me a lot more to work off of and your vote is a valuable asset in both providing to me and obtaining information for yourself. I didn't think that your poke of Xino was suspicious. Quite the opposite. I just don't want that to be the only thing you do. That's what I meant by skating by. By all means keep your vote on Xino. I'll probably join you to see if extra pressure gets him here. What do you think of the other things going on in the thread? Your comment on Gears' playstyle is a great example. What are your thoughts on Lotus' claim? 

I honestly put you as slightly sus to get you to post again and it worked. That didn't even take a full vote. I'm hoping you'll spur others to post in the same way. You don't even have to change your vote from Xino to point something out that someone will have to respond to, so I understand how you felt about poke votes. I like them because they give my accusations a little more umph, but they shouldn't be necessary.

17 hours ago, Illwei said:

Sorry, drove across the state and back yesterday, was very tired, completely forgot I was in a game... anyways-

---

Okay basically I think that ignoring the fact that there is a spy is the best route. As far as I see, the Village still wins if the spy is alive, so the only reason we would need to try and weed out the spy is if they're doing a really good job at protecting the Elims, which they'd apparently have to figure them out better than the village to do, so TBH not really worried.

I disagree that the Spy should be actively protected. I don't think they should be actively attacked, as that just benefits the Elims, and the Village can still win with the Spy alive. It's not like the Korathi Cultist was, as the Cultist needed everyone gone, and also knew the identities of the Elims. The Spy would need to save up 100 Deo to buy a murder contract, so I also don't think that worrying about them actively killing is worth anything.

Ventyl, not sure I understand your reasoning.
You are saying that you are usually chaotic to prompt discussion? and so you think that gears is doing that, so you vote on them? Not sure I understand that reasoning.
I don't see gears being particularly chaotic exept for the Elim claim, which people should just ignore at this point (though I do think that his "Analysis" was particularly unhelpful this game, being more of a summary with added "Stay alive" and "welp, if this is your role you shouldn't die" .
One of my strats is to be chaotic D1 (not exactly to prompt discussion though....) so I can't exactly fault someone else for doing that. I do admit that it is sus though...

Wrote this before you said it was a "joke vote" but idk I'm just not buying that totally yet. Ideally I would have gotten on and also voted for gears but too late now :P. 

I think that 3 Elims makes more sense to me, as with 4 elims it would be 4/9 not 4/10 and 4/9 with luck on the elims side could end really early. I guess I have to think about the fact that that Spy needs to disappear first, so...actually, nevermind. 4 Elims makes sense now...as the Elims would need to get rid of 6 people, with one being the Spy that they have to figure out....and the Vil has to figure out 4...no I still think 3 Elims makes more sense to me. there isn't really an align scan and the elims technically could buy more kills...idk...

I still think 3 Elims makes more sense to me... 

---

NULL
  - Mist: Hope you did well on the SAT. I'm more of an ACT person
  - Ashbringer
  - Silber
  - Lotus

NULL/-
  - Gears: Their Inital Analysis seems more like a summary to me
  - Matrim: Null with a pinch of bad gut read in there
  - King: Seemingly contributing to discussion, but nothing to say. New player, so understandable.
  - Venture: maybe it's just because I see being seen as vaguely sus as good for yourself if you're village, and responding to a read based off of one post seems pointless. 
  - TJ Shade: idk bad gut read
  - Xino: In the one game I was in with Xino where they were village they posted and in the 2 other games where they were Elim they only talked in the Elim doc
  - Ventyl: (Null/--) Bad vibes

NULL/+
  - Vapor: put out some sort of reads, woot
  - Elkanah (Null/++) Being helpful

I'll probably remember more that I wanted to say but in the hour I was catching up definitely forgot
 

Gosh! that's an exodus. Sorry for hounding you so much, but thank you for this post!

Ignoring the spy makes the most sense to me as well.

Are you trying to pocket me?  Again?

Thank you for your reads! Illwei

16 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Elkanah is once again going full force into asking questions, which I think is good, although there's a certain something he pointed out that irks me, which... I said last time, but this feels... more solid, but also minor. And there's no real motive for Elims to ask questions in-thread. So Village lean here.

Other than that, nothing stands out to me much. Gears being Gears, Ventyl being Ventyl, Elkanah being Elkanah, a few inactives but none that wouldn't be expected (cough Xino cough). There are a few things I spy that could be suspicious if they continue, but for now I'll leave it at that. I'll point them out if they become a pattern, and I'll try to post a more fleshed out analysis tomorrow, but between school, the Reckoners reboot, and possibly playing two games at once I'm not sure how active I can be on weekdays.

I am very interested to see how we end up on different sides this game. Our first game together I threw you under the bus as an elim. Last game I took too long to trust you. Maybe this game it'll be the other way around. Or maybe it was nothing. We'll have to see.

16 hours ago, Lotus said:

Anyway, you know what, I’m going to go way outside my comfort zone and tell everyone right off the bat that I’m a adjuntator.

This is interesting and fun and I like it very much!

14 hours ago, Lotus said:

To be perfectly honest because I’ve been experimenting with different SE playstyles and I figured it could be fun to see how this one works!

Thank you for trying something new. It'll be interesting to see how this works out for you! Please let us know in the aftermath what you thought about the experience and whether you think it's worth trying again. I did a very similar thing in my first game. Right down to misspelling the role. Except, I lied. I honestly don't believe that you are an adjudicator and I don't want to vote for you.

I'll admit that it is a little selfish on my part in that I really like PMs. If we lynch someone with over half of the voters on the same person, we open PMs. If you are killed tonight and are an adjudicator, it will be difficult to have a proper lynch next cycle. If we fail to kill with the lynch, I get my open PMs.

So by all means, I am interested to see how your ploy works out.

15 hours ago, Gears said:

I expected at least one village adjudicator. Perhaps two. However, a village adjudicator is not particularly useful, so it would be no great loss if we were to lynch Lotus for being an adjudicator. If no other possibilities appear by the end of the cycle, we should lynch them. 

---

Kadio laughed. As it turned out, Sunwalker the Unlucky was a judge. "Kill them," he said coldly. "Everything to gain if we do, nothing to lose if we don't."

14 hours ago, Gears said:

I... completely forgot about the adjudicator death penalty because I'm an idiot and a plebe undeserving of life. I'm keeping the vote there until a better option arises though.

It's mostly a placeholder until any suspicions arise. I don't particularly believe Lotus is an elim. I don't not believe they're an elim, but still.

13 hours ago, Gears said:

Alas, I am doubly a fool. Option 1: Lynch Lotus, ensuring that we do not take a penalty. Option 2: Ignore Lotus, most likely allowing the elims to kill them. Option 3: Plan a rescue mission involving a martyr Actor or the great King Iadon. Option 3 is better than Option 1 is better than Option 2, but Option 3 is risky and unreliable because 1: Most people are not willing to be martyrs and 2: The King could swap the role with an elim. Option 1 is guaranteed, but we do lose an adjudicator. We definitely should get a lynch to open PMs, so I'll leave my vote on Lotus for now. If a better lynch target comes up, I'll switch off.

Interesting. I was assuming that Option 1 was your favorite and the whole reason for your vote. After all, your character said Everything to gain, Nothing to lose. The adjudicator isn't a huge role for us as it generally benefits the village to get their lynch. The only exception in my mind is if it opens a new avenue of information (like opening PMs). Normally, a no lynch benefit the elims marginally more than the village. The village doesn't lose a member, but they also give up info. But we're not really giving up info in the long run by allowing the elims to kill Lotus for two reasons. 1) it doesn't actually have to cost us the lynch. I have no doubt we will reach the 50% of voters this turn and it is far from impossible next turn. 2) If we are worried about not getting a lynch for a turn, Lotus is capable of making that happen more than once by actively blocking our lynch target. Once they have unlocked unimited PMs, adjudicators are more of a liability to the village than than a help as a role.

Sorry for the block of text.

TL;DR

I like the idea of ignoring Lotus for now. If they die, we might get unlimited PMs. If they live an adjudicator isn't that big of a problem to deal with as long as they let us know who they are protecting and murders are available if they don't.

15 hours ago, Illwei said:

I know what I was thinking earlier, but-

Gears

Yeah that's where I'm going to be at for now

Was this for his rash vote for Lotus? What do you think of the analysis he and I have provided since?

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... why? One of three roles that give a direct bonus to the Elims upon death, and you claim D1?

 

 Can't really quote over multiple pages but while I don't like Lotus's claim, I don't think it's lynch-worthy unless we really want to take that 50% vote requirement bonus away from the Elims. Or think she's an Elim!Adjudicator. So I'm not really liking Gears' vote here. 

As I say above. That bonus isn't really that strong. We can still pretty consistently reach that benchmark especially if some people don't vote at all... if we want to. I am all for getting PMs.

Just did 

14 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'll start by saying that you can with that plus button by the quote one. I discovered this last game and it was like Why didn't I know this existed before.

Other than my slight/gut village on Elk and Gears? Not really. I'd say the only person who's done anything I'd consider suspicious is Kings_way, and I'm actually just thinking that's more new-playery than elimy. Thoughts on Lotus below.

I'd agree that lynching Lotus because we're afraid of an elim adjudicator is a bad idea. But if there really are no other options it has some benefits, and there'd always be the analysis of who pushed their lynch and who didn't depending on her flip. But I'd lean on not at the moment. 

Still, claiming that isn't really helpful. @Lotus, what made you claim?

I'll present one Xinoehp now has two votes. I hope he gets on in the next eight hours, but we'll see. @xinoehp512

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

But that’s the thing: the penalty is if the adjudicator’s killed by an attack. If she’s lynched, it doesn’t happen.

That’s why I’m hesitant to vote on you or her. Even if she is Village, lynching her now keeps that penalty out of Elim hands, wheras the only way to protect Lotus D1 is if the Monk does it or an Actor does a suicide swap (or possibly Iadon saving the role, not Lotus). I just don’t know if it’s worth lynching someone who’s probably Village.

I'd respond to this one as well, but I'm repeating myself at this point.

Would that really be a bad thing?

13 hours ago, Kings_way said:

The only person that I'm getting suspicious vibes from is Gears, but everyone's saying that's how he always is, so I'm not sure about that. 

Yeah, he started playing this way about three games ago. It's an aight strategy. he usually dies early for it though.

12 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lotus claiming doesn't seem like an elim strategy, but assuming she is an adjudicator we don't want her to be night killed. Requiring majority vote isn't an insurmountable barrier, but it's definitely inconvenient. I wouldn't blame Gears for wanting to eliminate that possibility, except forgetting that there was a death penalty that only applied to a night kill makes it look like a fear that any adjudicator who claimed would automatically be an elim, which I don't understand. There had been enough discussion of an elim adjudicator that I doubt one would claim.

Having Iadon swap someone else's role with Lotus could work, but the odds aren't incredible. With village Lotus, we have 4-5 players who would automatically fail to be swapped with her, and then Iadon and the Executive Secretary would definitely be worse to lose. That's about half of the non-Lotus players in the game. It's still worth it to try as only one of those possibilities makes us worse off than before.

So it sounds like you would be okay with a Lotus lynch? You left that option out and I wonder if that was on purpose. You doubt Lotus is an elim, but lynching them is far less inconvenient than trying to swap her role and you make it sound like it might be less inconvenient than getting a fifty percent lynch next cycle. I just don't know why you didn't go that far. Clearly I'm not bothered if we get a lynch next cycle or not, but if you think it's overly inconvenient, why not vote for Lotus this cycle?

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

So I mean, you saying this before you apparently remembered that if Lotus is attacked (and telling the truth) doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, I can see it making sense on way, but that way still doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I do see this as more of an Elim move than a Vil move, but that's because I was under the Impression that if the Adjudicator was voted out then the penalty would also happen, as we would be less likely to kill them if that were true. I guess that doesn't really hold up, and i get Lotus saying that she's trying different things, but it still seems like an elim move to me.

This sounds like you were going to read over and then respond, but you never responded?

Ooh this is spicy. wait, which is the elim move? Gears voting for Lotus or Lotus claiming to try to get us to not lynch them? Or you voting for gears?  

But you also misremembered the rules, so Gears is clear?

Yeah sorry. I got here eventually.

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Two more posts and I'm late for a thing. Don't let me not bring up more things. I will be back in a couple hours

4 hours ago, Gears said:

I saw no other options for a lynch, considering we have no other suspicions at the moment. If that changes, I might switch off, though given the penalties, perhaps I won't. While I don't think Lotus is an elim, the claim is the best lead we have thus far. Odds are they aren't an elim, but we get PMs, don't get a penalty [which is retroactive reasoning, but no less convincing, hopefully], and might catch an elim Adjudicator. If we assume that an elim Adjudicator exists, then Lotus has a 1/3 [or 1/2, depending on the distribution] chance of being the elim [this probably is affected by the claim, but I don't know enough about people to predict that], which is at least marginally better than the 1/5-1/4 chance of a random person being an elim. As stated, I will switch off if any more pressing suspicions arise.

 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If we dare to stray into IKYK territory, it's possible elim!Lotus saw the discussion on an elim adjudicator and claimed, thinking there's no way they're gonna think an elim adjudicator claimed after that. But that's pretty specific. I think that's what Gears and maybe Illwei are leaning more towards, which makes Illwei's current vote on Gears interesting as I think they are agreeing on Gears' vote on Lotus. I'm not sure how I view that, I'm probably more on the less aggressive side of Gears' thinking, if there are no other good options, yes we should have a unified lynch and yes, lynching an adjudicator would have some benefits to it. But I'll keep my vote for now

@TJ Shade, any thoughts on the current situation? You posted some earlier in the turn and have now vanished. Sorry if you had said you were gonna be less active this game or this turn specifically and I forgot.

 

[xinoehp512]

Here I am, caught up on events...! sort of. 
Here's the vote as I count it:
Xino (2) Venture, Elk
Lotus (1) Gears
Gears (2) Illwei, Xino

I don't have an abundance of time, so here are some quick thoughts. I don't think that Lotus is evil- a claim gains her nothing if she's an eliminator. (Elims generally have the goal of drawing attention away from themselves, in fact.) Losing minority lynch would be a nuisance, but not enough of one to lynch her for it.

I have a slight elim read of Gears for his attack on Lotus, and nothing better to go off of yet. @Gears