Long Game 70: Reforging Arelon

[Kynedath]

Cycle is closed! PMs will be sent out shortly.

[Kynedath]

Day 6

Lenkai was being watched. The figure crouched on a rooftop, grinning from ear to ear. They knew that Lenkai had advertised being guarded, and that could very well be true. However this was still an opportunity for Lenkai to die. It had been too long, and their refusal to be killed irked the figure. They would enjoy killing Lenkai. And finally, a pain in heir side would be gone.

The figure dropped down onto the eaves of the house they were standing on. They wondered why Lenkai was always wandering the streets late at night, but the thought quickly passed through their mind, they were too focused on Lenkai, and the relief that would come when he died. The figure almost didn't notice the guard dtachment following Lenkai on the ground. Luckily they heard one of the guards cough. The figure was about to jump off the roof, so the noise made them tense up and the jump too swiftly. The eaves under their feet collapsed, leaving them on the ground facing the sky, with Lenkai on one side and the guards on the other.

The figure leapt to their feet and began dashing away, their cover was blown and they couldn't let anyone see who they were. The guards yelled at one another, and half the guards chased the figure, the rest sprinting towards Lenkai themselves. The figure ran through every alleyway they could remember, trying desperately to lose their pursuers. It was through luck that they got away, they crashed into a pole holding up an awning, making the awning collapse after the figure. It bought them enough time that they could get away.

In the morning they heard that Lenkai had been detained for illicit dealings. They weren't dead, but they were inconvenienced. Maybe they could take solace in that.

---

Elkanah was attacked and survived! Again! Again!

Elkanah was caught using the contract market! They will not be able to vote this cycle.

This cycle will end in ~46 hours, on Monday the 12th, at 2000 MDT (0200 GMT)

Item market:

Spoiler

Item	Price
Noble Insignia	24
Trade rights	24
Embargo	39
Personal Messenger	17

Contract market:

Spoiler

Contract	Price
Muder	110
Surveillance	72
Bodyguard	61
Identity theft	87

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @xinoehp512 - Enjoys counting
2. Gears - Kadio, the ultra-capitalist Loyal Merchant Trademaster
3. Mist - Tara Night, is their heart as dark as their last name? Loyal Merchant Executive Secretary
4. @Ashbringer - Faleast, . . . bone collector?
5. @Matrim's Dice - Phialico, rhymes with calico
6. @Elkanah - Lenkai, the anithesis of the player
7. Illwei - Akiia, big fan of onions and probably ogres (layers joke) Loyal Merchant Actor
8. @Kings_way - Oreo, double aon = double cool
9. Lord Silberfarben - a man of two words Loyal Merchant Socialite
10. @Lotus - Sunwalker, quote: "horribly unlucky"
11. @Vapor - Taeon, hates most things (lik most 30-something year olds)
12. Ventyl - Lafay Etteax, keeps dying and coming back to life! Fjorden Sympathiser Burglar
13. @Butt Ad Venture - Lawrence Lokennake, Kleptomaniac? or Charlatan?
14. TJ Shade - everyday working-man Loyal Merchant Kingpin
15. Devotary of Spontaneity - Serenken, establishment clause for the win! Loyal Merchant Actor

 

[Mat]

Goodness! This has got to be a record or something... Well done Elk!

So lynch wise, what are we thinking? I'm sorta in the same place as last time, unless someone saw something during the night, with either Kings or Vapor on my mind. Vapor less with the creating PM's, but now that can't be proven. In fact, discussion was a bit slow to pick up last time, so I'll just start off with that. Kings_way. Thoughts? Objections? @Kings_way

Edited October 11, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Elkanah]

I object that I can't vote. But at least Ashbringer can vote, so the spy is still at large. Also, thank you for the protection. It looks like I needed it after all.

I would definitely not vote for kingsway even if I could. Likewise I recommend not voting for Vapor or Xino. That leaves Lotus Matrim and venture. Matrim is the guy who votes to lynch people, so we should leave him. My opinion (not vote) is Lotus

[+Lotus]

I’d prefer not to get lynched. Venture and Kings Way are... ok. I’m really suspicious of Martin at the moment though, which is making it hard for me to want to vote for anyone he is willing to.

[Mat]

10 hours ago, Elkanah said:

I object that I can't vote. But at least Ashbringer can vote, so the spy is still at large. Also, thank you for the protection. It looks like I needed it after all.

You say that like you didn’t buy protection. What was your contract, then?

10 hours ago, Elkanah said:

I would definitely not vote for kingsway even if I could. Likewise I recommend not voting for Vapor or Xino. That leaves Lotus Matrim and venture. Matrim is the guy who votes to lynch people, so we should leave him. My opinion (not vote) is Lotus

I think the reason I voted for Kings is because not enough has happened to get me to have any suspicions change since he was slight elim for me two cycles ago. No one (active) has died for awhile and that messes with reads. But I see how it’s unhelpful. We need to be pretty unified today, and for that reason I’ll do Kings_way.

29 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I’d prefer not to get lynched. Venture and Kings Way are... ok. I’m really suspicious of Martin at the moment though, which is making it hard for me to want to vote for anyone he is willing to.

I’d also prefer not to get lynched. I haven’t seen any arguments against me that actually hold up- you haven’t given any in the first place- except for maybe reading Ventyl as slight village but on D2 when there was a lynch as sudden as his even that is just a reach. I don’t really have anything against you but I don’t have anything for you much either. I’m realizing at this point Ventyl’s tunnel on you doesn’t mean as much as I had figured, so you’re sorta neutral.

I think the best argument against my lynch right now is one Elk brought up: I am looking for a lynch. Think about it. Right now, the distribution is most likely 4-3-1, with an off chance of 5-2-1. With the first and most likely option, the Monk needs to lynch a villager to win and the elims need to lynch the monk to not lose. What do we need to do, though, to have even the slightest chance of winning here? Lynch an elim. Not voting puts us in a significantly worse spot in the night cycle. I’m advocating this for that reason- it’s our only chance.

[Elkanah]

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You say that like you didn’t buy protection. What was your contract, then?

1 hour ago, Lotus said:

I’d prefer not to get lynched. Venture and Kings Way are... ok. I’m really suspicious of Martin at the moment though, which is making it hard for me to want to vote for anyone he is willing to.

I am really interested to know why you suspect Matrim. Is there something he's done recently (or not recently), or is it just gut.

I guess he voted for Mist, but there was no way he could have known she was the exec sec. What do you think of Kings Way now that Matrim is no longer voting for him? What about my other suggestion of Venture?

38 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d also prefer not to get lynched. I haven’t seen any arguments against me that actually hold up- you haven’t given any in the first place- except for maybe reading Ventyl as slight village but on D2 when there was a lynch as sudden as his even that is just a reach. I don’t really have anything against you but I don’t have anything for you much either. I’m realizing at this point Ventyl’s tunnel on you doesn’t mean as much as I had figured, so you’re sorta neutral.

I think the best argument against my lynch right now is one Elk brought up: I am looking for a lynch. Think about it. Right now, the distribution is most likely 4-3-1, with an off chance of 5-2-1. With the first and most likely option, the Monk needs to lynch a villager to win and the elims need to lynch the monk to not lose. What do we need to do, though, to have even the slightest chance of winning here? Lynch an elim. Not voting puts us in a significantly worse spot in the night cycle. I’m advocating this for that reason- it’s our only chance.

I'm almost willing to suggest we kill a villager. Ashbringer has been very kind and deserves a win.

Speaking of @Ashbringer, would you be willing to give us some reads that we can think way too hard about trying to guess if they are village or not.

[+Lotus]

5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

1 hour ago, Lotus said:

 

I am really interested to know why you suspect Matrim. Is there something he's done recently (or not recently), or is it just gut.

I guess it’s because, if I were elim!matrim, with a pretty quiet village population, I’d try to gain the village’s trust by being a Lynch leader, all the while trying to Lynch the villagers. 
 

I mean, yes Mats been active and helpful, but has he really been that helpful? Maybe I’m missing something, but it feels like he’s being very helpful without actually being helpful.

And on Venture or Kings way... I’m ok with them. I don’t have very solid reads on either, they’ve been pretty quiet, but Elims have played that strategy before, so It might be worth a shot.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I guess it’s because, if I were elim!matrim, with a pretty quiet village population, I’d try to gain the village’s trust by being a Lynch leader, all the while trying to Lynch the villagers. 

In my earlier post I forgot about something else; I said the elims need to lynch the monk to not lose but what they also can do is bus one of their own.

My point is that an elim does not want to lynch a villager. It makes me think your statement earlier- about not wanting to follow my vote because of your suspicion on me- is faulty because if you truly think I’m an elim for some reason you’d want to follow my vote because it wouldn’t be on a villager. But I’m not, and I hope we don’t hit a villager and end this thing. We gotta find an elim.

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I mean, yes Mats been active and helpful, but has he really been that helpful? Maybe I’m missing something, but it feels like he’s being very helpful without actually being helpful

Who would you say actually has been helpful though? The only elim we’ve gotten was a flurry of last minute switches I wasn’t on to see.

7 minutes ago, Lotus said:

And on Venture or Kings way... I’m ok with them. I don’t have very solid reads on either, they’ve been pretty quiet, but Elims have played that strategy before, so It might be worth a shot.

Do you have a preference between them?

18 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I'm almost willing to suggest we kill a villager. Ashbringer has been very kind and deserves a win.

Haha funny joke

18 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Speaking of @Ashbringer, would you be willing to give us some reads that we can think way too hard about trying to guess if they are village or not.

Since I have no proof that you’re not the monk either I’ll ask the same thing of you.

[Elkanah]

Just now, Lotus said:

I guess it’s because, if I were elim!matrim, with a pretty quiet village population, I’d try to gain the village’s trust by being a Lynch leader, all the while trying to Lynch the villagers. 
 

I mean, yes Mats been active and helpful, but has he really been that helpful? Maybe I’m missing something, but it feels like he’s being very helpful without actually being helpful.

Fair enough. He has led a lynch on at least two villagers. Here's where the rubber meets the road for me. He thinks I'm the spy, and he's not trying to lynch me for it. Clearly the elims want nothing more than my death, and yet he hasn't called for it once. Although, they have probably realized that I know who the adjudicator is and have rightly imagined that I have asked them to prevent me from being lynched, so that line of evidence isn't quite as reliable.

I understand that he is your biggest suspicion (and I have disagreed), but if you are convinced why haven't you voted?

 

@Vapor

@Kings_way

@xinoehp512

@Butt Ad Venture

Who do you think are the elims? do you have any reasons?

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Fair enough. He has led a lynch on at least two villagers.

Name them. I’ve voted on villagers, yes, but I didn’t ‘lead the lynch’ for most of them. The only one that comes to mind is D2 Illwei which we all agreed was a big misunderstanding.

6 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

He thinks I'm the spy, and he's not trying to lynch me for it.

Why would I want to lynch who I think the spy is? You need to stay alive. Or Ash, apparently.

[Elkanah]

36 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In my earlier post I forgot about something else; I said the elims need to lynch the monk to not lose but what they also can do is bus one of their own.

My point is that an elim does not want to lynch a villager. It makes me think your statement earlier- about not wanting to follow my vote because of your suspicion on me- is faulty because if you truly think I’m an elim for some reason you’d want to follow my vote because it wouldn’t be on a villager. But I’m not, and I hope we don’t hit a villager and end this thing. We gotta find an elim.

Who would you say actually has been helpful though? The only elim we’ve gotten was a flurry of last minute switches I wasn’t on to see.

Do you have a preference between them?

Ooh, interesting point. but that means I can't just trust people who don't want to kill Ashbringer or me.

Now I have to think harder about this.

36 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Haha funny joke

Since I have no proof that you’re not the monk either I’ll ask the same thing of you.

Sure

Xinoehp - claimed Iadon to Mist. I believe he has been lying low to escape detection. I'm afraid it didn't work. I'd feel bad about outing you except you are safe because the elims seem to have decided they will exclusively target me until the last syllable of recorded time. Mechanically village

Ashbringer - Is the only one who could have protected me the first night I died. Therefore the only logical candidate for the Monk. He has protected me since and I am happy to be the scapegoat of infinite protection. Village aligned

Matrim's Dice - The only villager left who I believe is actually trying to solve the game. The elims seem content just to wait until I run out of Deo (jokes on them), but Matrim feels genuine in trying to figure out the game. Village

Elkanah - Village Kingpin. need I say more? My dealings may be illicit, but this city wouldn't run half as smoothly without me in it. I have ascended from mere assistant and strategist in LG69 to King of the underworld in LG 70! Village but scary

Kings Way - Has not been on enough to submit kills reliably. It could be that there is only one active elim left, but I don't want to count on it. I honestly thought Silberfarben was an elim and he wasn't. Plus, I think people tend to stay more engaged when they are elims because they have a team supporting and depending on them. Village inactive

Lotus - Was tunneled on by the only known elim. Made a claim day one that an elim is unlikely to make. was in a trusted group with the seer... Elim

Vapor - Claimed (and kinda proved) Socialite. We've already had one village socialite lynched, but that in no way means we couldn't have had two socialites on the same team. Was trusted by the seer. Village

Butt Ad Venture - Should vote more.  Voted and lynched the only elim we've found so far. It wasn't necessary to bus a teammate, and they weren't at lylo. Village

 

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Name them. I’ve voted on villagers, yes, but I didn’t ‘lead the lynch’ for most of them. The only one that comes to mind is D2 Illwei which we all agreed was a big misunderstanding.

Why would I want to lynch who I think the spy is? You need to stay alive. Or Ash, apparently.

We couldn't have lynched Silberfarben without you. And Illwei. That's a couple.

Exactly! You would want to lynch who you thought the spy was if you were an elim. I think you are not an elim because you don't want to lynch who you think is the spy. Of course, as you pointed out, elims could bus other elims at this point so, not everyone who doesn't go after Ash or me is cleared, but those who do are not cleared.

 

EDIT

Shoot, my reads list is unhelpful. Here let me try again...

Edited October 11, 2020 by Elkanah

[+Lotus]

Uh... all of those reads seem completely backwards.

I mean, you give like five reasons to not trust someone and then you say ‘village’

[Elkanah]

Another try at my reads list:

Xinoehp - Is just active enough to follow along in the elim doc and probably the one submitting kills. Laying low to escape detection and doing a pretty decent job. Elim

Ashbringer - Is claiming to be the monk to escape being lynched. Fades pretty well into the background by joking with me. Hasn't really tied himself to any lynch. Elim

Matrim's Dice - lynched Silberfarben and Illwei and claims not to have been on to save Ventyl, but if he had, maybe he could have changed that lynch. Elim

Elkanah - Chaotically unhelpful to the village. Clearly trying to undermine valid lynch efforts by spreading information and misinformation in equal parts. Lynch on sight. Elim

Kings Way - Was suspicious while he was here and that hasn't really changed since he left. Elim

Lotus - Claimed adjuntator day one. Seemingly can't be killed. Every person who ever went after Lotus was summarily lynched. Is she being protected by someone? Elim

Vapor - staying pretty quiet. Was added to the trusted group before it was possible for her to be scanned. Could be a mole? Elim

Butt Ad Venture - Bussed a teammate for village cred. Hasn't really been here, but that might change if we were to actually accuse another of his teammates. Elim

 

12 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Uh... all of those reads seem completely backwards.

I mean, you give like five reasons to not trust someone and then you say ‘village’

Like what? I thought all of those were reasons to trust them?

 

EDIT

Gah I did it again!

Ashbringer should do this. They would be 1000% better at it than I am

Edited October 11, 2020 by Elkanah

[+Lotus]

44 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Like what? I thought all of those were reasons to trust them?

 

...Alright

[Elkanah]

I honestly believe that venture lynching an elim unprovoked is a reason to read him village. Xino claiming Iadon is a reason to read him village until there is a counterclaim. I grant reading you as an elim was a joke in that post because I thought it was obvious that I read you as village there. 

[+Lotus]

5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I grant reading you as an elim was a joke in that post because I thought it was obvious that I read you as village there. 

Ok, that was where I was very confused. 

[Elkanah]

Haha 

Yeah, You had some of the better reasons for trust among all the reads... but maybe that's what you want me to think 

[Mat]

Well, if nothing else, Elk got some upvotes from me...

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Ooh, interesting point. but that means I can't just trust people who don't want to kill Ashbringer or me.

The other thing here is I doubt the elims would openly target you anyway. But I bet you’ve already figured that out.

[Ashbringer]

Hi everyone. I'm going to need a bit to figure out what the storms is going on, then I can post something. But I don't think I can keep this up anymore.

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

We couldn't have lynched Silberfarben without you. And Illwei. That's a couple.

Forgot to comment on this :P. 

So, true, but Ash was the first vote on them and mine was prompted by Lotus, so it isn't really fair to give me all the blame. You said that you genuinely thought he was an elim, after all.

(Also, how's everyone feel about... not having a lynch? Amazing strategy, I know... think about it though. 4-3-1 (probably) if we don't lynch anyone it will stay like that. Then, the elims will probably target Elk again, and he'll probably survive again... and then we have more time to think about things. Or, if he dies and is monk, it's just a normal game and we can start actually solving things instead of worrying we're being manipulated. Of course, if Elk is village we'd lose to the monk, so maybe we should just try to find an elim. Thoughts on this?)

[Ashbringer]

Okay, so here's the problem. There was probably four Elims at the start, as three along with the Monk's existence would be nearly impossible odds. That means the current distribution is 4 Villagers, 3 Elims, 1 Monk.

 

If we lynch a Villager today, the Monk wins outright. If we lynch the Monk today, the Elims win next turn unless a stray roleblock and/or murder turns things around correctly. If we lynch an Elim... there's a ton of variables, like if the Elims decide to keep pecking Elkanah to death or hit a Villager to get it back into close dispersion or if the Monk uses a Murder contract and hopes he lives. That might still be the best course of action, might not. It depends on how confident we are in our night actions. But a mislynch is fatal.

As Matrim so eloquently ninja'd me on, we could also try to not have a lynch... but that has a few problems. That would be very vulnerable to a hammer, but even if the votes played nice, it just gives the Elims another chance to break through Elkanah and (from my non-Monk perspective) put the village at an eternal lylo.

There's also the problem of the adjudicator, who could force a no lynch. I have a... suspicion... of who the adjudicator is, but I have no idea for sure. Only one who does is the Great and Powerful Iadon, who I think we all know who is, and the Adjudicator themself. This is a risk, but I think a worthwhile one: Adjudicator, is there anyone who is immune to the lynch today? Because if we lynch the immune target we essentially give up the day to the night kills, and I highly doubt the Elims can spare the time to kill you now.

 

My advice for a lynch would be Kings Way or Lotus if we want an Elim dead, Elkanah if we want the Monk dead and want to play with roleblocks and knives in the dark, or Xino if we decide that we're done with this new capitalist-monarchy government and want to spread the People's Republic of Elendel off of Scadrian borders. I trust Vapor, Xino, and somewhat Venture; that leaves Mat, Lotus, and Kings, and then Elkanah as Monk.

Other things:

14 hours ago, Elkanah said:

I object that I can't vote. But at least Ashbringer can vote, so the spy is still at large. Also, thank you for the protection. It looks like I needed it after all.

I would definitely not vote for kingsway even if I could. Likewise I recommend not voting for Vapor or Xino. That leaves Lotus Matrim and venture. Matrim is the guy who votes to lynch people, so we should leave him. My opinion (not vote) is Lotus

I'd like to reiterate that Elk is the Monk, not me. For all the good it might do. ELKANAH talk to me here. I only have enough deo for one night... when?

 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Forgot to comment on this :P. 

So, true, but Ash was the first vote on them and mine was prompted by Lotus, so it isn't really fair to give me all the blame. You said that you genuinely thought he was an elim, after all.

I specifically voted on Silber to NOT vote on someone who I thought would be lynched so I could cover for Elk... which you all promptly ignored.

 

I'll leave it at that for now. I'm pretty busy today, will hopefully be less so tomorrow.

[+Lotus]

57 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Xino if we decide that we're done with this new capitalist-monarchy government and want to spread the People's Republic of Elendel off of Scadrian borders

All hail the republic!

[Elkanah]

... So it sounds like we are lynching Kingsway or Vapor?  With 5 hours left neither is defending themself.

The other option is to wait and do this all again next cycle (and maybe the next). I think we should have a vote. If we ignore the spy, we are at a normal lylo and we have enough information to make an informed lynch. Also, without the exec sec, putting it off a cycle will not give us any new information.

We just have another 72 hours of witty banter. Which I'm all for by the way, but it doesn't help us solve the game. The only people benefited by not voting are the elims because it may get to a point where I run out of protection. (Emphasis on may).

I think we decide the game now. That way to stay alive, the elims have to lynch one of their own.

[Elkanah]

Once again... Villagers have no reason here not to lynch. The elims CANNOT afford to lynch a villager. So all villager please vote! If you are voting for a villager, the lynch will do what they can to alter it to either me or an elim. Then you can lynch the elim. Please Vote!

 

Double posting for effect and because is has been almost three hours.