Long Game 70: Reforging Arelon

[Mat]

I guess as far as roles go, that's not too bad to lose? The murder contract costs more, but so does surveillance. I don't know how many people were gonna go for contracts anyway, though...

Why do we think TJ was the kill? I'm going to read his posts again in the morning and see what I can find in there that might be helpful. But for now, night! 

 

[Ashbringer]

So...

Edited October 2, 2020 by Ashbringer
Photo disappeared

[Elkanah]

 

Wow, It's quiet without Illwei or Gears.

15 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

I'm swamped.  My days are quite full, and I'm not as invested in SE as I used to be.

Was going to post a post last turn, but the rollover caught me off guard... unfortunately.

I'll do some quick vote analysis, nothing too spectacular.

A vote on me for meta reasons, which is... fair.  In my defense, I invite you to consider the fact that I missed the past 2-3? games and am somewhat out of practice.

(The fact that you find posting a vote count AI is slightly irritating, but mostly from a meta standpoint.)

I'm not sure I follow Ventyl's reasoning here. He cites his reasoning from last turn, which was all about how we should lynch Lotus to keep the eliminators from triggering the penalty- which, if Lotus was telling the truth, no longer applies. He then moves on to argue that there was a low chance that Lotus was an adjudicator, therefore she was probably lying. This removes any possibility that he actually intended to follow up on his reasoning from last turn. Furthermore, he seems to be basing his vote on Lotus on the assumption that she's lying, despite having practically no evidence that this is in fact the case.

From my perspective, this feels like an elim trying to get a lynch on Lotus, something that would be supported by the apparent lack of a kill on her. People seem to be chalking this up to Ventyl's playstyle, and perhaps I am reading this wrong - I'm not an expert on playstyles, especially since I missed the last few games. But from where I stand, Ventyl looks quite suspicious. 

To be honest, I see nothing particularly alignment indicative in this post. I was confused at first reading Ilwei's post as well.

Well, he wasn't right, but this was solid analysis. Definitely inclined to read Matrim village for this.

A bandwagon vote. Not inherently elim, but doesn't exactly dissuade the possibility.

Another poke/contribution crusade vote on me.

I'm out of time to discuss, maybe I'll look more at Venture tomorrow.

Thank you for your post! I realized I have tunneled on you pretty hard and I'm told I should not lynch you so I'll lay off for now. We've already had two very ill-fated bandwagons and you almost went the same way. If the people defending you turn out to be elims, I'll come back after you. In the mean time I'll respond to our post. :)

Between the contribution crusade and past performance, I thought the vote was fair game, but you're right. I shouldn't harrass you if you are trying to come back after a break. 

Venyl's posts do feel off to me. So does their tunnel on Lotus. What I find weirder is that the last two people to seriously go after Lotus were both promptly lynched. That isn't necessarily indicative of either of them as the elims may want us to think the Lotus protection racket means she is an elim and we have another mislynch, but I'm not sure we want to lynch Ventyl over their vote on Lotus given we've already done that twice.

I also am currently reading Matrim as village. 

Looking into venture is a good idea, but I am encouraged by his willingness to post and vote this game, so I'll wait to vote for him until I have some solid evidence of his guilt.

 

I'll post this now and be back for more later

[Mat]

Well, I'm back and I looked through TJ's posts. There were only three.

The first doesn't help us. That was the one where he warned about an elim adjudicator, which I had forgotten he was the one to do that. 

The second is the most helpful, in my opinion. That was where he put out a reads list. (Still D1) Here are some interesting points I found from that post. 

Quote

Why do you think more no. of elim!Adjudicator depends on no. of Kingpins? Also the Adjudicator replaces an elim theory feels like an attempt to misdirect the village 

Only interesting because he flipped Kingpin. Not sure what to take from this, though.

Summary of his reads for that post: 

Spoiler

 

Village- Devotary (confirmed) Illwei (confirmed), Myself 

Elim- Gears (incorrect), Lotus (vote)

Null- Elk (leaning vil)

 

Here's his Lotus one:

Quote

Lotus - I cannot, for the life in me, fathom why Lotus would claim Adjudicator is she was the villager. I'm trying to imagine myself as one, and I'm looking at the rules. It clearly states that if I get NK'd, then village needs majority vote for a lynch to be successful. Now why would you read that, then decide to claim, when you know that you'd likely be NK'd which is directly detrimental to the village's cause? I'll have you note the Lotus made a previous post earlier in the cycle which was normal. Only after the discussion about the Adjudicator arose, did she claim as one. If she decided to have a different playstyle from before, shouldn't she have claimed earlier? Lotus

Which I had initially disagreed with upon thinking there was no way Lotus' teammates would let her claim... but maybe she did pitch it well, or didn't say anything. Illwei's flip has made me look at how I look at Lotus differently, and my village read on her isn't as strong anymore. More on that later, though. I'll do a read's list tonight, probably.

His third and final post, found here, on D2, is also interesting because it includes an elim pool.

Quote

Elim pool: Venture (Vote + Venture's post this cycle), Xinoehp (Vote), Mist(Vote + suspicion in this post), King's Way (vote + post mentioned in D1) and Lotus. Out of these, I feel strongly about Mist

I'd be willing to take another look at Venture. He's kinda been sliding under my radar this game. Not sure where the Mist vote comes from, tbh, though she's also kinda been slipping under my radar. I can see what he's saying on King, though that could just as easily be new player, and since that D1 post they've made considerably more sense. Lotus, I'll get back on, as I already said. But this one thing, which I reread after Illwei's flip, is partially why my mind is slowly changing about Lotus:

Quote

A bit about Lotus as well. Illwei, why do you think claim to be role swapped in not elim indicative? It makes perfect sense, if she's no longer an Adjudicator, we no longer have reason to lynch her, and she can give the reason that the elims no longer want to kill her as the reason for staying alive.

...Which is actually true. (Note: Elk's contact, though, disputes this slightly, but Iadon switching elim!Lotus adjudicator is just as likely as switching village!Lotus adjudicator. Or the contact may also be an elim)

Elk, a time may come where you might need to share the contact with someone you trust to figure this out. If your contact is indeed an elim, there could be trouble. I don't know how you would, though, as I'm decently sure you would have used your allotted PM already.

Also: @Lord_Silberfarben please exist. Your only post reads "sorry! i am here now!" so I'd like you to do something. 

[Ashbringer]

32 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Thank you for your post! I realized I have tunneled on you pretty hard and I'm told I should not lynch you so I'll lay off for now. We've already had two very ill-fated bandwagons and you almost went the same way. If the people defending you turn out to be elims, I'll come back after you. In the mean time I'll respond to our post.

I’m not sure how I feel about this. 

Xino’s post felt slightly off to me. Mainly due to the timing: about an hour before rollover on a Night turn, which would give the Elims enough time to switch their kill but doesn’t leave time for a lot of Villagers to read through it. He was also viewing the thread for the last 15 minutes before the previous rollover, which... he could have been typing and lost the rollover but I don’t get the feel of that from this post. It feels retroactive.

There’s apparently a PM reason going around that Xino shouldn’t be lynched? Elkanah, is this you talking about what Mist was saying or did you also get a PM? I haven’t recieved anything, which is... unsurprising, considering I’ve been vocal that I don’t really like PMs... but I still don’t like people talking in PMs without me 

Not voting on him now - he’s here, so I can make a judgement on his actions instead of his inaction - but I’m not reading Xino village yet.

[Elkanah]

37 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’m not sure how I feel about this. 

Xino’s post felt slightly off to me. Mainly due to the timing: about an hour before rollover on a Night turn, which would give the Elims enough time to switch their kill but doesn’t leave time for a lot of Villagers to read through it. He was also viewing the thread for the last 15 minutes before the previous rollover, which... he could have been typing and lost the rollover but I don’t get the feel of that from this post. It feels retroactive.

There’s apparently a PM reason going around that Xino shouldn’t be lynched? Elkanah, is this you talking about what Mist was saying or did you also get a PM? I haven’t recieved anything, which is... unsurprising, considering I’ve been vocal that I don’t really like PMs... but I still don’t like people talking in PMs without me 

Not voting on him now - he’s here, so I can make a judgement on his actions instead of his inaction - but I’m not reading Xino village yet.

I may have been put into contact with a socialite (which is delightful), but there are a few people vouching for Xino right now. I told them that if Xino posted I would back off my war path directed at him for a minute. I'm hoping he will become active and he did kind of promise us a follow-up post looking into Venture this turn.

It is interesting that you think the elims would change who they were going to kill based on his post. He shared some suspicion of Venture and Ventyl, but neither of them were especially trusted by anyone else, and at different points in the game I have already said I suspected each of them. I thought the reason we weren't going hard on figuring out lynch targets during night cycles was on the off chance the elim had (or now possibly have) an adjudicator. That's a rabbit hole I'm going to wait a minute to address

Right, so I'm not sure the timing is actually that big of a factor, but I'm okay with being wrong if you can show me what I'm missing.

I concede Xino is on a lot more than he posts. I don't think it's that he leaves a tab open while he's doing other stuff either because he's often on for about fifteen minutes and then gone again.

I don't know what he has claimed, but there is a small coalition in favor of keeping him alive. That's as far as I'm going to go for the moment because I promised to start working on other leads. However, if any of this coalition end up to be elims, I'm right back on that train.

 

 

Here's the rabbit hole:

My contact claims to have received the adjudicator role after night one. This corroborates Lotus' claim that she is no longer an adjuntator. They both could be elims.  I've realized, though, that even if she isn't an elim, the claim to have received the role does not mean my contact isn't an elim. Let's dig a little deeper here. Why would an elim claim to have received the adjudicator role. This took a lot of pressure off of Lotus at a key time so both being elims is still a real possibility. If my contact is an elim and Lotus is village, maybe they were trying to pocket me by giving me information? That seems to be a good way to do it. If my contact is village and Lotus is bad, then my contact wouldn't have known whether Lotus was an elim or not, but they did know the swap was the truth.

Effectively this gives me nothing. I'm looking a little squinty-eyed at Lotus and my contact now, but it really could just be nothing.

 

Edit

Sneaky ninjas

Ed2t

Not a ninja. I just completely missed Matrim's post somehow.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Elkanah

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

It is interesting that you think the elims would change who they were going to kill based on his post. He shared some suspicion of Venture and Ventyl, but neither of them were especially trusted by anyone else, and at different points in the game I have already said I suspected each of them. I thought the reason we weren't going hard on figuring out lynch targets during night cycles was on the off chance the elim had (or now possibly have) an adjudicator. That's a rabbit hole I'm going to wait a minute to address

I didn't really notice anything in there that would drastically affect the kill placement, it's more of the potential for it to happen that bugs me. If the Elims decided they wanted to kill Venture or Ventyl, seeing Xino post being suspicious of them may make them swap in an attempt to lynch them later. I'm not entirely sure why that would be the case, but it's another variable thrown in to mostly quiet nights.

More likely would be they swap to Xino based on it, as it would seemingly fit their kill pattern. But that didn't happen, unless Xino happens to be a third actor.

It just seems... almost flippant? That's not the right word. Like he didn't really consider the risk of posting then, even if it was a low one.

[Mat]

First, this:

4 hours ago, Elkanah said:

Here's the rabbit hole:

My contact claims to have received the adjudicator role after night one. This corroborates Lotus' claim that she is no longer an adjuntator. They both could be elims.  I've realized, though, that even if she isn't an elim, the claim to have received the role does not mean my contact isn't an elim. Let's dig a little deeper here. Why would an elim claim to have received the adjudicator role. This took a lot of pressure off of Lotus at a key time so both being elims is still a real possibility. If my contact is an elim and Lotus is village, maybe they were trying to pocket me by giving me information? That seems to be a good way to do it. If my contact is village and Lotus is bad, then my contact wouldn't have known whether Lotus was an elim or not, but they did know the swap was the truth.

Effectively this gives me nothing. I'm looking a little squinty-eyed at Lotus and my contact now, but it really could just be nothing.

You did say you missed my post, but this is kinda what I was saying (Which reassures me that I didn't think of something unplausible). We don't actually know anything. It clears no one, which is... unfortunate. I'm wondering how much you trust your contact though, read wise. Don't share that to the main thread, though. 

Second, reads, yay!:

• xinoehp512: Agree with Elk that it's good he's here, and agree with Ash that we shouldn't clear him for it. @xinoehp512, anything more to say here? Null...
• Mist: I don't remember exactly what they said, but I remember I thought it was thought out and seemed sincere. Slight village with a dash of please be a bit more active  
• Ashbringer: To me, Ash is kinda the same as Mist, just more active. He has pointed out some things I think are kinda strange to point out, though. Null leaning slight village and maybe a slight 'will investigate later'.
• Matrim's Dice: A bit confused, but sincere. Solid Village
• Elkanah: Arguably the most helpful so far. Seems like his usual village game. Village
• Kings_way: A lot of people have pointed out the seemingly strange view of the monk, which is true. But also King is a new player. But also he's been pretty defensive and quiet lately, and there's only so far 'new player' can go as an excuse. Null leaning slight elim
• Lord_Silberfarben: A frustrating-I-think-mutually-shared-please-for-the-love-show-up-and-do-something-Null! @Lord_Silberfarben!!  
• Vapor: Said they had a huge post that the Shard ate, I believe promised to get back to us... and then disappeared. @Vapor. Null leaning slight elim
• Ventyl: Now, while their vote and timing of said vote on Lotus was strange, Ventyl is strange himself. That's not super excusable, but seeing that I can see where he was coming from and considering that what I thought about Lotus actually isn't confirmed at all, I'd put Ventyl at a Slight village, but that could be subject to change depending on the arguments against him. I haven't read his post in a while.
• Lotus: At this point, with the adjud claim making me think Lotus was village, then realizing that this isn't as concrete as I thought, and rereading Illwei and TJ's points... I'm at a Null crossroads, though my gut tells me to investigate her more. @Lotus, what are your suspicions?
• Butt Ad Venture: I'm thinking I'd probably be fine with a Venture lynch, but I need to go reread his posts. To be determined.

Looking back at that there's a frustrating amount of Null's, at least for my liking. If I had to make an elim team guess, I'd put Vapor, King, Lotus, and Venture in there. 

(Something else interesting I just thought of- the current distribution is probably 6/4/1, or maybe 7/3/1, so we might be seeing some free elim sacrifice deaths here soon if they continue to fail to find the Monk and if we continue to fail to find them ) 

TL;DR:

Village: Myself, Elk

Slight Village: Mist, Ash, Ventyl 

Slight Elim: King, Vapor

Very Slight Elim/Investigate Later: Lotus, Venture

Null: Everyone else

(Plain Old Investigate Later: Xino, Ashbringer)

@Butt Ad Venture analysis post to come. Probably tomorrow.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
Autocorrect strikes again

[Mist]

Reads:

Xino: village for PM reasons
Mist: village for GM PM 
Ashbringer: mild village for analysis
Matrim's Dice: mild village for analysis
Elkanah: mild village for backing up Lotus and PM reasons
Kings_way: slight elim for wanting to remove monk
Lord_Silberfarben: null for typical behavior, which means I'd be perfectly willing to vote him out.
Lotus: null leaning village for claim timing 
Vapor: village for PM reasons
Ventyl: slight elim for continued pushing of Lotus, chaotic play
Butt Ad Venture: null

With surveillance contracts, I'd guess that there are 4 elims.

Here's what I've been doing. Posting now, likely more tonight, if not (and if so), tomorrow. 

[+Lotus]

 

Lotus: Obviously I know I'm the only completely trustworthy person here.

Matrim's Dice: Slight village. Seems to be helpful, posts reads, can't find anything suspicious

Elkanah: Slight Village Seems helpful. Appreciate that they helped back up my claim.

Mist: Null/Slight village. Don't have any reason to be suspicious, seems good.

Vapor: IDK. Haven't seen much of Vapor, or maybe I've just been missing their posts.

Ashbringer: Has been somewhat helpful but also in a very not helpful way.

Lord_Silberfarben: Null. Hellloooo? Anyone out there?

Butt Ad Venture: TBH this is just about his name. I mean, seriously? Butt Ad Venture?

Ventyl: IDK, feel a little sus.

Xino: ? Slight slim but have no real basis

Kings_way: I don't like the way he's been thinking. But it could be just a difference in thoughts.

 

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Butt Ad Venture: TBH this is just about his name. I mean, seriously? Butt Ad Venture?

Two people that I'm suspicious of.

Two people I think might be a team.

And you don't even say anything about him? Really?

[+Lotus]

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And you don't even say anything about him? Really?

*shrug * I don’t know. He hasn’t done anything super suspicious but nothing really to gain my trust. 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

*shrug * I don’t know. He hasn’t done anything super suspicious but nothing really to gain my trust. 

Hmm. 

Well, thanks for posting, cause I was writing a @Butt Ad Venture analysis post. I went through all of his this game and found three of note:

The First: Page 3 of D1

Quote

Ah wonderful. Thank you for posting Xinoehp.

So. Gears seems to be pushing hard for us to kill Lotus. And I have to say, playing with someone who's goal is to cause chaos is not fun. Your motives are suspect, and your helpful additions are equally dangerous. Lotus, if we kill them yay. If we don't that's bad. But because all of this is coming from a known chaos seeker, here's my compromise. King Iaodon swaps Lotus's roles with someone. We don't have to kill a possible village, and we protect an important role. Y'know...if they are the adujator.

I'm leaving a vote on Gears. They claimed Elim. So kill them. What else is there to say?

It's that last line that caught my attention. It had already been clarified that Gears had done this as a villager multiple times, so the claim itself was largely NAI and shouldn't be the only reason for a vote. This line of reasoning- 'they claimed elim so let's kill them, obviously'- would be convenient for the elims to use early on (knowing that Gears is actually village) and get credit for not jumping on the 8 vote swing it became. I might be reaching with this assumption, but it's something I thought of.

Also it might be noteworthy to remind people that Venture poked xino early on. Dunno what significance that has, though. 

The Second: Page 1 of D2, at 10:01 am

Quote

Ah Geez. Devotionary, whyyyy. Just lost a great player, to a horrific muder. 

So. Lotus admits to having their roles swapped around. Thank you Mr Iadon. Thank you. Unless Lotus was lying. Then we need to harm them in a lynch or something. But I think that I'm willing to accept their story. And it's unlikely that we need to lynch them to prevent the Elims from sabotaging the lynch.

By the way, I am currently Suspicionless. Disappointing. But I can do the current vote count, and then put a vote on.....hmmm. Illewi I agree that is it most likely that Lotus was attacked, and that's how Devo died. But that doesn't place suspicion or blame upon Lotus. I doubt an Elim would target themselves, and Devo, as their full name suggests, is a person of action. Defending Lotus was the best choice for the village........wait. Waitwaitwait. Lotus could not be both defended by Devo and have their role swapped by Iadon. So either Lotus is lying, or Devo was directly targeted. So.......maybe we do kill Lotus?

I think someone else has said that the first sentence here could be filler to seem helpful. Then says he's suspicionless but votes Illwei anyway, and takes a firm standpoint in village!Lotus before backing it down, again. 

The Third: Page 1 of D2, 11:28 am

Quote

*blinks* Well that's strange. I guess Devo could just be a random kill, and...it seems like that's possible..but if it isn't.... Hmm, that means that someone would have to target Lotus with a kill, and Devo with the alignment change. I find that...unlikely? So yeah, it just makes so much more sense to say that Devo was just killed, and didn't defend Lotus. Which then makes it so that your mystery person claim, combined with Lotus claiming that their role changes, are all the more likely to be telling the truth. Which leaves me suspicionless, once again. 

I understand. But you're claiming that an eliminator would target another member of the Elims in order to kill Devotionary. If Devo died defending Lotus, why would that make Lotus guilty?

I understand, but that also means that the Elims are going after their own Adjudicator. Right? I think that's what you're saying is happening.

The first paragraph is basically the same thing he already said. I have a decent alarm elim gut coming from there, like he needed another paragraph and just restated the filler things (Nooo Devotary, speculation that doesn't do much, by the way I don't have any suspicions even though I voted). And then he takes another standpoint at village Lotus.

All in all I'd read Venture right now as Gut Elim but he hasn't done much of anything to support actual evidence for village!Venture or elim!Venture. His stance on Lotus is interesting.

I won't be on a lot today, or tomorrow, so this will probably by my last big post of the cycle. I don't think I'll be on for rollover. So, Venture.

*Reads over post again.* *Notices something*

I'll return to that first post now... read this part again:

Quote

But because all of this is coming from a known chaos seeker, here's my compromise. King Iaodon swaps Lotus's roles with someone. We don't have to kill a possible village, and we protect an important role. Y'know...if they are the adujator.

Venture was the one to come up with the Iadon swap idea? If Venture and Lotus are indeed elims together, I don't think Venture would have said this at all. An elim adjudicator is very useful. So, either

1. Venture is village, Lotus is elim, Venture saved the village from elim adjud
2. Venture is elim, Lotus is village, swapped around a role (with a chance of giving it to a teammate) to gain village cred
3. They both are village and it's just that
4. They both are elim and Elk's contact is misinformed/lying/confused

But that's a rabbit hole that I don't particularly want to dive down. But it makes me think that Lotus and Venture probably aren't teammates, but either could be elim. I personally think 2 is the most likely based on my gut reads, but depending on Elk's contact it could be 4.

[+Lotus]

@Matrim's Dice Ok wow that’s really interesting. Taken individually each post seems perhaps a bit odd but fine, but taken as a group it’s suspicious.

Butt Ad Venture

[Mist]

@xinoehp512, @Kings_way, @Lord_Silberfarben, @Ventyl, @Butt Ad Venture

Come say something!

Venture. I agree that he's kind of sus and will provide information.

It's possible elim!Lotus claimed, realized we were going to vote her out, then got a teammate to propose a plan that would keep her from getting voted out. That's not what I think happened, but it could be a possibility. 

Xino, I'm essentially sure it's a bad idea to vote you out. Inactivity isn't helping, though.

Oh, by the way, Vapor doesn't have her phone at the moment. 

On 9/29/2020 at 1:11 PM, Kings_way said:

Illwei, are you saying it doesn't make sense that Lotus wasn't NK'd, so they must be an elim, because either:

• Devo used their actor ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK, meaning lotus lied about their role being changed by Iadon. because Devo's would've been changed instead
• Devo was NK'd and Lotus was role changed by Iadon
• some other situation I didn't think of

It would make more sense for the elims to NK Lotus, so if the second is true then Lotus is probably an elim. 

Possibly trying to push a mislynch on Lotus?

[Ashbringer]

I haven't seen anything to indicate Venture being overly suspicious... the only thing they did was push Illwei, which I was one biased game away from doing myself. And the fact that he scrambles from one position to another within a single post actually makes me read him Village, because he's probably not typing out pre-planned ideas. And I think he was gut-reading Illwei instead of gathering a suspicion from the kill.

The Lotus swap is another reason I trust him - it may give the Elims the chance to get a really useful role for them, but so far whoever got the Adjudicator (from Lotus or not, as an Elim or not) hasn't been using it... I wonder... @Elkanah, is your "contact" Venture? If he is we may have an issue, because if Iadon swapped Lotus and Venture because Venture suggested it... I don't know if that makes sense, but that could be a ploy from a fairly experienced player to snag a good role.

But I'm assuming for now that didn't happen. If so, it's a good move from Iadon and a good suggestion from Venture. So I see no reason to lynch him.

Hmm. @xinoehp512, you said you would make a post on Venture today... well, this cycle ends in 2.5 hours. I'll stay off voting for now but I'll be watching to see if that post comes. I don't like following the whims of an unknown coalition, and I'd rather have a vote today that matters one way or another.

[xinoehp512]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @xinoehp512, you said you would make a post on Venture today... well, this cycle ends in 2.5 hours. I'll stay off voting for now but I'll be watching to see if that post comes. I don't like following the whims of an unknown coalition, and I'd rather have a vote today that matters one way or another.

Oh dear. I should be more careful with what I say...  

I really don't have time to dedicate to a deep think through. I did read over Venture's posts briefly, but unfortunately don't have any direct reads from them. The best I have is that I agree with @Ashbringer's assessment more than @Matrim's Dice. 

I know it's kind of late now, but my best suspicion is still Ventyl. Maybe another lynch candidate will spice things up. I don't know.

 

[Mist]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I haven't seen anything to indicate Venture being overly suspicious... the only thing they did was push Illwei, which I was one biased game away from doing myself. And the fact that he scrambles from one position to another within a single post actually makes me read him Village, because he's probably not typing out pre-planned ideas. And I think he was gut-reading Illwei instead of gathering a suspicion from the kill.

The Lotus swap is another reason I trust him - it may give the Elims the chance to get a really useful role for them, but so far whoever got the Adjudicator (from Lotus or not, as an Elim or not) hasn't been using it... I wonder... @Elkanah, is your "contact" Venture? If he is we may have an issue, because if Iadon swapped Lotus and Venture because Venture suggested it... I don't know if that makes sense, but that could be a ploy from a fairly experienced player to snag a good role.

But I'm assuming for now that didn't happen. If so, it's a good move from Iadon and a good suggestion from Venture. So I see no reason to lynch him.

Hmm. @xinoehp512, you said you would make a post on Venture today... well, this cycle ends in 2.5 hours. I'll stay off voting for now but I'll be watching to see if that post comes. I don't like following the whims of an unknown coalition, and I'd rather have a vote today that matters one way or another.

You have a point. Makes me want a tie, to see what people do. Venture Ventyl Both aren't in my trust reads.

[Ashbringer]

4 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Oh dear. I should be more careful with what I say...  

I really don't have time to dedicate to a deep think through. I did read over Venture's posts briefly, but unfortunately don't have any direct reads from them. The best I have is that I agree with @Ashbringer's assessment more than @Matrim's Dice. 

I know it's kind of late now, but my best suspicion is still Ventyl. Maybe another lynch candidate will spice things up. I don't know.

 

4 minutes ago, Mist said:

You have a point. Makes me want a tie, to see what people do. Venture Ventyl Both aren't in my trust reads.

... this makes me somewhat nervous. I don't really trust Ventyl, but I've said that in every game I've played...

I kind of like making a tie. And I'm staying off the current two until I have time to look harder at Ventyl.

But that Venture post didn't come... so... Xino until Elkanah someone can convince me otherwise. I don't like people piggybacking off my own reasoning, I don't like PM shenanigans, and I don't like delaying analysis and inactivity. So here we go.

 

I'll be back before rollover, but I'm out for a walk for a while.

[ShrubSeph]

A lot of people have been going after me for suggesting killing the monk D1. I would like to clear my name. I noticed a lot of people suggesting we leave the monk alive, but I was slightly disagreed. I was a little unnerved by the Idea of not killing someone who wanted villagers dead, and thought that if we found them, we should lynch them.

Sense then I have seen the advantages of keeping the monk alive, because the elims wouldn't want to kill villagers if it would result in a Monk win, and might hold off on the NK. 

[Mist]

 

On 9/29/2020 at 11:13 AM, Ventyl said:

Okay, it’s time for my post by post analysis of Lotus! I did one of these in LG... I don’t remember the number, but it’s been too long and I need to get back to doing them. Although, I generally find it hard to read people from the content of their post, and not just their vibe, I can do it if I look into it long enough. Anyway, here we go!

Day One:

1) A simple RP post, something about a worldhopper . NAI
2) Claims “adjuntator,” I wonder if this spelling was supposed to be an intentional joke, or an actual misspelling of the role. Either way It does strike me as odd that she claimed the role, after we’d talked about not wanting one to be killed by the elims. This is either an extremely village move, or an elim who’s line of thought was along the lines of; “If I claim this role, they won’t kill me?!” 
3) After being asked why she claimed, says because she wants to try something new, this is going to be NAI. I can’t really fault someone for this, and I also can’t know if it’s true or if it’s just an excuse to avoid suspicion. 
4-6) A back in forth between Lotus and Illwei about the latter moving their vote off of Gears, there isn’t much to read from this, but with how easily Lotus just lets Illwei’s ‘explaination’ satisfy her, the conspiracy theorist in me wants to see a Lotus-Illwei elim team. That’s probably not the case though.
7) Claims they read the rules about adjudicator wrong, seems suspicious, like she’s trying to backpedal her way out of suspicion. This gives me an elim read. However, it could be a genuine misunderstanding, I would know because I did the same thing in LG67.
8) Warns about rollover, NAI.

Night One:

They didn’t make a single post the entire turn... could easily be discussion in the elim doc. Though, it could just as easily be they weren’t able to get on in time. This gives me a bad vibe, they also could’ve been in PMs, so if anyone was in a PM with Lotus I would like to know. 

Day Two:

9) Claims to have been roll swapped, this gives me an immediate elim read. One, this could easily be her lying so that she no longer has to worry about suspicion as an elim adjudicator, and this is what I think it is. The likely hood that they were an adjudicator in the first place is also low, so why they would lie about having the role, and then getting it swapped strikes me as something extremely suspicious. I tend to believe that lying about your role is a pretty elim thing to do. Yes, there are circumstances where doing so as village can be beneficial, but it can cause too much chaos in the village to be helpful. Sure it’ll generate useful discussion, but if you have an important role and end up being killed, because you lied about your role, it’ll be terrible for the village. 

I was about to make this point, but I was ninja’d. This is one of the main reasons I think we lynch Lotus here, I had my reasons last cycle and now I have more. Sorry if some of this is pretty incoherent, I’m in a rambling mood right now. If you have questions about my vote, feel free to ping me about it.

So @Lotus, how do you plea?

 

Probably not on the same team with this. 

20 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

A lot of people have been going after me for suggesting killing the monk D1. I would like to clear my name. I noticed a lot of people suggesting we leave the monk alive, but I was slightly disagreed. I was a little unnerved by the Idea of not killing someone who wanted villagers dead, and thought that if we found them, we should lynch them.

Sense then I have seen the advantages of keeping the monk alive, because the elims wouldn't want to kill villagers if it would result in a Monk win, and might hold off on the NK. 

Opinions on any of this? 

I'm looking. Honestly, the active people I have trust reads on, and everyone else has low content. 

In order

Mist 1
Xino 2
Vapor 2
Elkanah 3
Matrim 3
Ash 3
Lotus 4
Silber 5
Kings_way 5
Ventyl 5
Butt Ad Venture 5

[Elkanah]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I haven't seen anything to indicate Venture being overly suspicious... the only thing they did was push Illwei, which I was one biased game away from doing myself. And the fact that he scrambles from one position to another within a single post actually makes me read him Village, because he's probably not typing out pre-planned ideas. And I think he was gut-reading Illwei instead of gathering a suspicion from the kill.

The Lotus swap is another reason I trust him - it may give the Elims the chance to get a really useful role for them, but so far whoever got the Adjudicator (from Lotus or not, as an Elim or not) hasn't been using it... I wonder... @Elkanah, is your "contact" Venture? If he is we may have an issue, because if Iadon swapped Lotus and Venture because Venture suggested it... I don't know if that makes sense, but that could be a ploy from a fairly experienced player to snag a good role.

But I'm assuming for now that didn't happen. If so, it's a good move from Iadon and a good suggestion from Venture. So I see no reason to lynch him.

Hmm. @xinoehp512, you said you would make a post on Venture today... well, this cycle ends in 2.5 hours. I'll stay off voting for now but I'll be watching to see if that post comes. I don't like following the whims of an unknown coalition, and I'd rather have a vote today that matters one way or another.

I will reveal my contact is not Venture. I will reveal my contact tonight to at least one person tonight either through a PM I already have or via a messenger to make sure it gets through in case I die. Hmm. Actually, if they turn out to be an elim we are hosed... so I will reveal who I revealed to to a third party... or I will just reveal at the end of the night. I'm not getting lynched, so I'll hold on to it for another second. 

So yeah. It's not venture who is claiming to me to have received the adjudicator role. It's interesting that you claim they haven't been using their role. That's quite the assumption. Can you give me a little more info? The most likely lynch target every turn (at least the night before) so far has appeared to be lotus. 

I promised not to vote on Xino, and I'm more or less okay with either lynch. I'll vote Lord Silberfarben. That way I have a vote down and I am covering whether Ashbringer is the monk or not. I mean, It definitely could be me

 

Sorry, the next two cycles will be more busy for me.  I will be working about sixty hours this week, but I promise one good post per day probably later at night. either just before or after rollover time.

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, Elkanah said:

So yeah. It's not venture who is claiming to me to have received the adjudicator role. It's interesting that you claim they haven't been using their role. That's quite the assumption. Can you give me a little more info? The most likely lynch target every turn (at least the night before) so far has appeared to be lotus. 

For some reason I thought that the lynch protectee was Public; it's been that way in the game's I've read through. They may have been if it's not.

[Kynedath]

Cycle is closed, Night 3 will be up shortly.

[Kynedath]

Night 3

Lafay Etteax strode through town confidently. What did he have to fear? He had already died several times and had come back from the dead! It had been a while since he had died, granted, but he still came back! He saw others looking at him, what did he see behind their eyes? Was it awe? Fear?

It's suspicion.

Who was that? Lafay turned about in the street, looking for the source of the bone-chilling voice that resonated through the street. Nobody else was reacting to it, was it all in his head?

Yes.

Lafay stopped in his tracks. The voice said that people were eying him with suspicion, did that mean that he wasn't being sneaky enough? That he wasn't being cunning enough? Lafay brushed the thought out of his head. After all, he had nothing to fear from them. It's not like they could kill him.

You have something to fear from them.

Lafay was getting tired of this voice. Who was it, and what did it want from him?

I am Dominion. I am here to see you off.

Lafay hadn't noticed the crowd gathering behind him, a mob raised by the other merchants. They were here for blood. But Lafay simply wondered what the voice referred to when it said he had something to fear from their suspicion.

The PAIN

Lafay felt a blow land on his back, and sharp pain wrang throughout his body. He was on the ground, and the pain was agonizing. The mob was on him, they wouldn't let up. In that moment, wracked with pain, Lafay felt fear again. He didn't want to die, it hurt!

---

Ventyl was lynched! They were a Fjorden Sympathiser and a Burglar.

Vote Count D3

Ventyl (2): Xinoeph, Mist

Butt Ad Venture (2): Matrim’s Dice, Lotus

Xinoeph (1): Ashbringer

Lord Silberfarben (1): Elkanah

1/3 of the players are now dead. There is now a 2 vote minimum on lynches.

 

The Night cycle will end in ~24 hours, on Sunday the 4th, at 2000 MDT (0200 GMT)

Item Market: 

Spoiler

Item	Price
Noble Insignia	24
Trade rights	24
Embargo	39
Personal Messenger	17

Contract Market:

Spoiler

Contract	Price
Muder	110
Surveillance	72
Bodyguard	61
Identity theft	87

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @xinoehp512 - Enjoys counting
2. Gears - Kadio, the ultra-capitalist Loyal Merchant Trademaster
3. @Mist - Tara Night, is their heart as dark as their last name?
4. @Ashbringer - Faleast, . . . bone collector?
5. @Matrim's Dice - Phialico, rhymes with calico
6. @Elkanah - Lenkai, the anithesis of the player
7. Illwei - Akiia, big fan of onions and probably ogres (layers joke) Loyal Merchant Actor
8. @Kings_way - Oreo, double aon = double cool
9. @Lord_Silberfarben - a man of two words
10. @Lotus - Sunwalker, quote: "horribly unlucky"
11. @Vapor - Taeon, hates most things (lik most 30-something year olds)
12. Ventyl - Lafay Etteax, keeps dying and coming back to life! Fjorden Sympathiser Burglar
13. @Butt Ad Venture - Lawrence Lokennake, Kleptomaniac? or Charlatan?
14. TJ Shade - everyday working-man Loyal Merchant Kingpin
15. Devotary of Spontaneity - Serenken, establishment clause for the win! Loyal Merchant Actor

 

Edited October 4, 2020 by Kynedath