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45 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I-

Can someone tell me I'm not going insane? are people purposefully misunderstanding me? did I misunderstand you?

After voting on Lotus I thought that there was a possibility that leaving Lotus alive would help the Elims run a train on Lotus because of this? 

Someone who hasn't posted yet please read through my posts and tell me they make sense.

Your ideas make sense (or I mostly agree with what Mist said). The order your presenting them in doesn’t, at least to me. 

We’ve already talked over and around and back again on the two Lotus votes. For the “Theory” post, I feel like that should have been at least slightly mentioned in your original explanation post. Because posting it in response to me feels like you repeating what I said in my post instead of a qualification to your own analysis...

The “Rhetorical Question” was just me confused on why you quoted that specific part of my post. I understood what you meant... I think.

Reads to come probably in a few hours - I’m going to be busy for quite a while.

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8 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Those stab votes huh?

Well, TJ may have been inactive at that point. And I think Ventyl was just trying to make a point because his vote came after Gears had quite a few votes (although predicting Ventyl is ... not one of my strong suits, to say the least).

I’m completely misunderstanding this, aren’t I. I just thought it was odd how so many people took Lotus’ side and went after Gears instead.

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Everything always happened when Sunwalker was around. He didn’t know much, but it seemed like he always got into a mess like this or another. Still, his salt shipments were going well, so he was happy about that at least. 

____
I’d be amenable to voting Illwei. Or really almost anyone. I can give some reads later, I just have some big emotional things going on right now.

Edit: Sorry if I missed this, but anyone have a link to the PM rules?

 

 

Edited by Lotus
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6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Everything always happened when Sunwalker was around. He didn’t know much, but it seemed like he always got into a mess like this or another. Still, his salt shipments were going well, so he was happy about that at least. 

____
I’d be amenable to voting Illwei. Or really almost anyone. I can give some reads later, I just have some big emotional things going on right now.

Edit: Sorry if I missed this, but anyone have a link to the PM rules?

 

 

Here's the rules doc. The PM rules are in there. 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/150fs2KG51FvodSrMMINii77X4rRELScHID30ZEOU8gw/edit

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Finally finished all of my things and caught up with the thread! So, here we go...

17 hours ago, Illwei said:

I can't tell if I should mark you sus for the conclusions I keep seeing you jump to, or if you are just giving me a sus vibe because maybe you're trying harder to mistrust me because of last game. 
I really have no clue how you took what I said to mean that I thought Lotus is an Elim. Maybe the vote? I'm voting lotus for reasons last turn.

Initially I was confused about your first post, Illwei, but that has sense been cleared up, at least in my mind. But I was interested in the part I bolded, as I had sorta forgot what your reasons were. So I went back to check that D1 post you did.

Quote

Lotus:
Since she said that she's experimenting and this is out of her comfort zone, I can't really assume that she's telling the truth. I have no clue what she is actually trying. I guess in the long run I should completely ignore this like Gear's Elim claim.
(1) She could be a Village Adjudicator, claiming her role to get protection (I mean, pretty sure she didn't claim so she would die...) because no one wants Adjudicator to be NK'd...well, the village doesn't. The Elims probably do. (though if I were an Elim I wouldn't want a dead adjudicator this early) and Idk about the monk. No, the monk definitely wants the Adjudicator dead, huh.
(2) She could be a Elim Adjudicator, both thinking what Matrim mentioned - why would an Elim Adjudicator actually claim after so much speculation, and, I mean, the same thing that ...Vil!Adjudicator!Lotus was thinking: People would want to protect her
(3) She could be an Elim, not Adjudicator, thinking that claiming adjudicator might get her to redirect protection

Basically I should read Lotus' claim as NAI, but it feels more like something an Elim would do - To try and get protection.

What I see there is that you came to the conclusion of nothing: Two equally feasible ideas (elim!LotusAdjud claiming for protection/alibi and vil!LotusAdjud claiming for protection) and you leaning more on the elim side of things, but when you vote on Lotus:

Quote

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

Gears
Lotus

...That doesn't make much sense and doesn't have anything to do with what you had previously said, iirc. Then you eventually retract:

Quote

I was thinking that that would make as much sense as Lotus claiming Adjudicator and being Village. I don't see Lotus making a new choice without a team to either back her up or to fall back on.

Which I would say that elim!AdjudicatorLotus' teammates would not let her claim. First off, it was right after we were discussing elim adjudicators as a possibility and that we were scared of them and would like to be rid of them if they do in fact exist. Moments later Lotus claims and Gears immediately jumps on her for that specific reason. Secondly, an elim adjudicator is a very powerful role and if I were elim!adjudicatorLotus' teammate, I would definitely want to keep that as quiet as possible. So I just don't see that being how it works out, at all. I'm decently sure Lotus is village.

But then that brings up the question of why she's still alive. There are basically three options, all I believe which have been mentioned before:

  1. Devotary used her actor ability on Lotus (which makes sense visually but not a whole lot of sense considering Lotus was the expected kill target, though I guess it's possible Devotary sacrificed herself for the belief of Lotus' survival...)
  2. The elims are setting up a possible mislynch later (I think is was Ash who said this?)
  3. The elims viewed Lotus as a far to obvious kill target.

Anyway, I kinda went off on a tangent there, so back to Illwei's retraction:

Quote

Lazy wasn't the word I was looking for really. I was looking for: Keeping his vote on Lotus there would give him reason to be all by his lonesome in the vote because no one else would really want to vote lotus at that point. Him taking his vote off of Lotus later makes that point meaningless.
But it's not an Adjudicator death trigger, It's just a general Majority vote trigger, no?

So Gears is kind of my top suspicion, but I don't want to vote on him. If necessary for PMs I will change, but I'm not sure otherwise.

Lotus

 The first paragraph is talking about Gears. What I don't see there is a reason to retract from Lotus, or even an explanation for voting on her in the first place.

Illwei ends the day with, I believe, is a fairly NAI or Null reading on Lotus.

Flash forward to this cycle:

Remember Illwei voted Lotus for reasons from last cycle. Which as I already discovered... don't really exist :P. Anyway, on to more explaining by Illwei:

17 hours ago, Illwei said:

It seems most likely to me that:
Devotary, not trusting that Iadon would swap the roles, swapped places with Lotus:
  - if Lotus was village then that would be a good choice for village on a whole
  - if Lotus was Elim then either it wouldn't matter or it would get an Elim killed.
If this is true then I think the best choice is to vote Lotus, because I wouldn't want Devotary to die for nothing. 

I mean, I could see something where maybe Devotary decided to try and open a PM, or get extra income, and got targeted? I mean personally if I was an Elim then I wouldn't have killed them because they haven't played a game in a bit. Of course, there was that thing with MR42 and Orlok 

If I was an Elim and Lotus was village, then I would definitely target Lotus N1, as I don't see any drawbacks. No one has access to a protect, so either you hit the adjudicator, or you hit a villager. Small chance that Lotus is actually an Actor, and was baiting, but a small chance of hitting the Elim team probably. For all we know right now, Lotus could actually be an actor and swapped places with Devotary who also just so happened to be an actor. 

The other option is that we let Lotus go, continue and try to find the Elim team, and hope that we do fine. I don't really like that option though.

I get the possibility that Lotus wasn't NK'd because she's an elim herself, but... I see so many other more likely options than just that. I also think it's odd you're pushing this so hard after a fairly NAI end read at the conclusion of D1. It seems like you would have considered that more before immediately jumping on with a vote. 

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

Er, I'm saying that Lotus is a good kill target because either:

  • Devotary used their ability on Lotus and Lotus was targeted for the NK
    • Lotus isn't an Elim because it was an attempted NK, and the Elims are actively trying to Kill Lotus, which means that if she is the Adjudicator it would be better to Vote her out
    • This whole point is irrelevant now that we know her role was swapped.
  • Devo was Nk'd (or swapped with someone who was, because IDK who would kill Devotary as they haven't played a game recently. maybe that gives us hints as to whodunit), 
    • Lotus is more likely Elim because she wasn't targeted by the Kill. the assumption was that Iadon might be able to swap roles before Lotus was killed, there was no assumption imo that Lotus would survive
    • There's also the..er...option? that the Elims ruled out Lotus for some Meta reason, but I have no clue what that would be and why it would be stronger than not attacking Devotary.

So with reason 1 there is no assumption that Lotus is an Elim, but the assumption that if she actually is the Adjudicator then we should vote her out rather than have her be NK'd. 

Honestly targeting Lotus would have been not only an option with no Downsides, but the best option. You'd either hit (1) The Adjudicator, (2) An Actor, or (3) Lotus, not the Adjudicator. 

Basically saying the same thing that was already said.

One more thing: Here's a specific part of the above post:

Quote

This whole point is irrelevant now that we know her role was swapped.

See, the problem that I'm having here is that you know and acknowledge that one of your major points for voting Lotus (getting the adjudicator out of the way before the elims do) is entirely useless now, and still don't retract your vote. And still haven't. Even then, your two points about voting Lotus are contradictory: One suggests Vil!Lotus, and one suggests Elim!Lotus. The first which has been proven invalid now, the second which I fundamentally disagree with.

On top of that, you've been a lot more confusing this game than I remember you being ever before. So I'll join Venture in voting Illwei. After reflection I really don't think Lotus is elim.

 

TL;DR: Illwei said that they were voting Lotus for 'reasons expressed last cycle', which I found there to be none. Then, the two reasons they gave this cycle not only are half incorrect, but contradict each other entirely. I don't think Lotus is an elim because I see no situation in which her teammates would let her claim.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...That doesn't make much sense and doesn't have anything to do with what you had previously said, iirc. Then you eventually retract:

Yeah, I guess I just need to be more clear with things. life is busy and I make connections in my mind that I just assume everyone else does too, and then I post the start and end. 

Gears had been reading more Monk than Elim to me, so I took my vote off him, as to me he was either the Monk, who I don't really care about right now but would keep an eye on just in case, or a villager. Gears gave good reasoning for voting Lotus off on Day 1, and all of a sudden everyone was voting him, starting with a few people who voted him and kept it for claiming Elim. So I changed to Lotus. What didn't make sense to me is Gears changing off of Lotus when he had basically presented every counter, and still kept his vote on. I then took my vote off because I didn't like that right after I put my vote on Lotus Gears switched back.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Which I would say that elim!AdjudicatorLotus' teammates would not let her claim.

Uh, I mean, from my experience you can't make your teammates do anything, and if they want to try a new strat then it kinda might end badly for the team but it's up to them in the end.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I also think it's odd you're pushing this so hard after a fairly NAI end read at the conclusion of D1

I mean, I'm not pushing it hard. It's just that I've had to restate the same Idea about twelve different ways so that people understood me :P.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The first which has been proven invalid now, the second which I fundamentally disagree with

Yes, the first was proven invalid.

let me take you through my thinking today:

   - *reads the Thread*
   - Why has no one pointed out that Devotary didn't trust the Iadon switch? maybe they swapped with Lotus?
   - Lotus is probably still Adjudicator then, and we should vote them out so the vote thing doesn't happen
   - Okay, Lotus claimed to be role swapped. well, that might be something to get them out of being daykilled if they were Elim
   - Wait, then why did Devotary die?
   - Oh, Elk has someone who claims to back Lotus up, so claiming means nothing now
   - Really, why did Devotary die?
   - Okay so Devotary couldn't have swapped with Lotus, so I guess I'll take my vote off. 
   - Wait if why wasn't Lotus killed?
   - Lotus is more likely Elim because why would they be left alive when it could be a kill on an Actor or Adjudicator, so my vote is back on.
   - Wait, if Lotus was Elim then why would they claim to be role swapped because they had a freebie to explain why they weren't killed
   - Lotus could be a potential set up for the daykill if people are thinking like I am
   - Oh right, no one thinks the same things I do, apparently.

As for the second, I fundamentally disagree with your vote on me, but that doesn't mean I'm going to vote you for that (right now :P) as I'm much more suspicious of Lotus for voting without reasons and Venture who started it. (Maybe I just accidentally set up a good alternative target in myself by accident...) I have provided my reasoning for why I thought Lotus was more likely Elim (many more times then should have been necessary)

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

On top of that, you've been a lot more confusing this game than I remember you being ever before

So you think I'm trying a new Elim strat, maybe one that the Elim team might disapprove of? If you look back on my games I act much more suspiciously (er, apparently?) in my village games. (I mean, only one Elim game to compare them to, and I honestly have zero Idea how people read me as village during that because the only thing I did differently was....withhold information? and my thoughts?)

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But then that brings up the question of why she's still alive. There are basically three options, all I believe which have been mentioned before:

  1. Devotary used her actor ability on Lotus (which makes sense visually but not a whole lot of sense considering Lotus was the expected kill target, though I guess it's possible Devotary sacrificed herself for the belief of Lotus' survival...)
  2. The elims are setting up a possible mislynch later (I think is was Ash who said this?)
  3. The elims viewed Lotus as a far to obvious kill target.

Aaaand this. I understand that you fundamentally disagree with everything saying that Lotus is an Elim, but point #1 is pointless and you're missing #4, which is that Lotus is on the Elim team. You can't ignore options just because you want to.
 

Edited by Illwei
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To sum it up: everyone is confused about Illwei, so they decided to kill him. 

Illwei thinks Lotus is an elim, which explains why they weren't NK'd. Ash thinks Lotus wasn't NK'd because it would be too predictable.

And Oreo is mad at Taeon for being called arthritic, and is telling them to go lock themselves in old Elantris instead of interfering with his business. He's also confused about why he was RP'd differently.

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*frustrated scream*

I had the longest reads post ever, and the Shard ate it, so here is a summary because I don't have the energy to retype it.

Analysis of people with a bunch of null reads and village reads because I don't have many suspicions, Trust on Mist and Elkanah

Analysis of posts

Pointing out that we want group PMs, right?

Noticing that we have 3 people being voted on

Posting now so that it isn't eaten, more later.

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6 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

everyone is confused about Illwei, so they decided to kill him

I would hope no one has decided yet, as Lotus hasn't given reasoning and Venture voted before I explained what was apparently a confusing vote. 

and because we have 24 hours yet to go

Edited by Illwei
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Ok, Illwei, that helps me understand your thinking a bit better. Thanks for the step-by-step outline...

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So you think I'm trying a new Elim strat, maybe one that the Elim team might disapprove of? If you look back on my games I act much more suspiciously (er, apparently?) in my village games. (I mean, only one Elim game to compare them to, and I honestly have zero Idea how people read me as village during that because the only thing I did differently was....withhold information? and my thoughts?)

No, I was thinking it was more of just a natural elim tendency bleeding through more than anything else :P. Not a strategy. But it is true that isn't what you've done in the past, I guess. I'm not certain what I was thinking with that. It was probably me having written all of that and just... finding something else to put that I found was weird. Maybe I'm tunneling, but with only one post about you, I hope not.

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Uh, I mean, from my experience you can't make your teammates do anything, and if they want to try a new strat then it kinda might end badly for the team but it's up to them in the end.

Well, if all of my teammates told me not to do something, I wouldn't do it. And if one of my teammates wanted to claim adjudicator if they were an adjudicator, in that situation, I definitely would not want them to do it.

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Aaaand this. I understand that you fundamentally disagree with everything saying that Lotus is an Elim, but point #1 is pointless and you're missing #4, which is that Lotus is on the Elim team. You can't ignore options just because you want to.

I didn't leave out #4 because I wanted to or because I was being sneaky or weird or anything, I left it out because the three options there were the reasons why village!Lotus was still alive. Lotus being an elim doesn't make that list because it is not possible if Lotus is village :P Option 1 is very unlikely, but it is possible, so I included it.

(And I realized I didn't clarify that in the original post, so I apologize.)

6 minutes ago, Kings_way said:

To sum it up: everyone is confused about Illwei, so they decided to kill him. 

Uh... no :P. Maybe that's part of it but like did you not read my whole post?

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1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No, I was thinking it was more of just a natural elim tendency bleeding through more than anything else :P. Not a strategy. But it is true that isn't what you've done in the past, I guess. I'm not certain what I was thinking with that. It was probably me having written all of that and just... finding something else to put that I found was weird. Maybe I'm tunneling, but with only one post about you, I hope not.

Man, this is what I get for just being sooooo good at being an Elim B)and throwing all my teammates undet the bus practically D1 

No one is ever going to trust me again...

but anyways-

Lotus
Venture

I'll post some more in a while, and might actually change my vote by then, but I don't like the feeling I'm getting of venture and his actions. Maybe I'll join Elk in voting Xino, since I agree with him about that.

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... as soon as I commit to staying out of Illwei and Lotus and stop asking questions, someone else takes up the standard. Of course.

I'll do more complicated reads tomorrow and probably a Faleast post (because I need to get off the Shard and do my homework), but in short:

Since nobody contested the Iadon swap, I think Lotus is Village, or at least NAI save for claiming easily. It's possible theirs some weirdness with Lotus not getting swapped, but that would incriminate another so I doubt it.

I'm honestly reading Illwei as somewhat Elim. Partly because of the confusion, partly due to the tell I found last LG. But on that vein... I think I'm honestly too biased at this point to be a good judge of Illwei's alignment. It's certainly not the same as last LG. So I'm going to recuse myself from this one, at least for a round or two. Illwei did a good job explaining himself with reasoning that makes logical sense even if I don't really agree, the tell showing up again only (well, mainly) on Illwei kinda suggests it might just be an Illwei thing over an Elim thing, and I don't like building reads off of text and mysterious tells anyway. I like provable details, which are sorely lacking D2.

So I'm staying out of this today, and am open to other options. I'd be fine with a contribution crusade on Xino, within reason.

Actually, let's go back to basics. Silber, @Lord_Silberfarben, you have been poked. Do you have any thoughts on the Gears-Lotus-Illwei interactions or on any alternatives? (@xinoehp512, consider yourself poked with this question as well. My vote doesn't tend to stay on Silber long.)

 

Lastly for the night:

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

So you think I'm trying a new Elim strat, maybe one that the Elim team might disapprove of? If you look back on my games I act much more suspiciously (er, apparently?) in my village games. (I mean, only one Elim game to compare them to, and I honestly have zero Idea how people read me as village during that because the only thing I did differently was....withhold information? and my thoughts?)

*Cough*

:P

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9 hours ago, Illwei said:

I'll post some more in a while, and might actually change my vote by then, but I don't like the feeling I'm getting of venture and his actions. Maybe I'll join Elk in voting Xino, since I agree with him about that.

Just a gut read? That's it?

Also, Lots of people here. Lots of voted. I'm going for the Illewi lynch, you guys can do what you wish. I only think that there have been too many contradictions, misunderstandings or not. Plus Elk has at least partially vouched for Lotus. So um....yeah.

Votes:
Venture (1): Illwei
Xino: (1): Elk
Illewi (2): Venture, Lotus
Silber (1): Ash

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5 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Also, Lots of people here. Lots of voted. I'm going for the Illewi lynch, you guys can do what you wish. I only think that there have been too many contradictions, misunderstandings or not. Plus Elk has at least partially vouched for Lotus. So um....yeah.

Mostly it's for today, and your vote on Gears yesterday. It didn't even have reasonings, it was just because he Claimed Elim.

On 9/29/2020 at 10:01 AM, Butt Ad Venture said:

Ah Geez. Devotionary, whyyyy. Just lost a great player, to a horrific muder. 

So. Lotus admits to having their roles swapped around. Thank you Mr Iadon. Thank you. Unless Lotus was lying. Then we need to harm them in a lynch or something. But I think that I'm willing to accept their story. And it's unlikely that we need to lynch them to prevent the Elims from sabotaging the lynch.

By the way, I am currently Suspicionless. Disappointing. But I can do the current vote count, and then put a vote on.....hmmm. Illewi I agree that is it most likely that Lotus was attacked, and that's how Devo died. But that doesn't place suspicion or blame upon Lotus. I doubt an Elim would target themselves, and Devo, as their full name suggests, is a person of action. Defending Lotus was the best choice for the village........wait. Waitwaitwait. Lotus could not be both defended by Devo and have their role swapped by Iadon. So either Lotus is lying, or Devo was directly targeted. So.......maybe we do kill Lotus?

This post - Where you vote on me for...thinking lotus is suspicious for not dying...

And then you flip flop and are uncertain and end with wait maybe killing lotus isn't the worst thing. But instead you keep your vote on me for arriving at that conclusion as well.

And you also include "Ah Geez. Devotionary. whyyyy..." which is just something I find unnecessary since it's not in your RP.

23 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

*blinks* Well that's strange. I guess Devo could just be a random kill, and...it seems like that's possible..but if it isn't.... Hmm, that means that someone would have to target Lotus with a kill, and Devo with the alignment change. I find that...unlikely? So yeah, it just makes so much more sense to say that Devo was just killed, and didn't defend Lotus. Which then makes it so that your mystery person claim, combined with Lotus claiming that their role changes, are all the more likely to be telling the truth. Which leaves me suspicionless, once again. 

I understand. But you're claiming that an eliminator would target another member of the Elims in order to kill Devotionary. If Devo died defending Lotus, why would that make Lotus guilty?

I understand, but that also means that the Elims are going after their own Adjudicator. Right? I think that's what you're saying is happening.

All of a sudden you're suspicionless again, but still voting on me? though it seems that your suspicions revolved around lotus before?

5 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Also, Lots of people here. Lots of voted. I'm going for the Illewi lynch, you guys can do what you wish. I only think that there have been too many contradictions, misunderstandings or not. Plus Elk has at least partially vouched for Lotus. So um....yeah.

I'm just-

I'm getting so frustrated this game that maybe you guys should just kill me off. 

 

5 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Venture (1): Illwei
Xino: (1): Elk
Illewi (2): Venture, Lotus
Silber (1): Ash

You're missing Matrim

 

To clarify everything:
 -  I never pushed lotus, only voted them
 - I am surrently suspicious of Matrim, Venture, Xino, and King for gears votes yesterday
 - I am also wary of everyone who made me explain myself twenty times over, as that's all the conversation has been about today because of that.

EDIT: idk if edits tag people, but @Elkanah @TJ Shade you guys haven't really said anything today. ?

Edited by Illwei
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Sorry for being absent guys. I went through the threads since the last time I posted (back in D1) and I'm quoting the posts which I felt suspicious. 

Quote

NULL
  - Mist: Hope you did well on the SAT. I'm more of an ACT person
  - Ashbringer
  
- Silber
  
Lotus

NULL/-
  - Gears: Their Inital Analysis seems more like a summary to me
  - Matrim: Null with a pinch of bad gut read in there
  - King: Seemingly contributing to discussion, but nothing to say. New player, so understandable.
  - Venture: maybe it's just because I see being seen as vaguely sus as good for yourself if you're village, and responding to a read based off of one post seems pointless. 
  - TJ Shade: idk bad gut read
  - Xino: In the one game I was in with Xino where they were village they posted and in the 2 other games where they were Elim they only talked in the Elim doc
  - Ventyl: (Null/--) Bad vibes

NULL/+
  - Vapor: put out some sort of reads, woot
  - Elkanah (Null/++) Being helpful

I'll probably remember more that I wanted to say but in the hour I was catching up definitely forgot

@Illwei: Gears posts a lots of summary-analysis posts and has posted in the past, not sure why you would read it as elim. Bunch of elim gut reads and bad vibes. Whenever the read lists are very vague, I feel something is off because it feels like making a post to act helpful. But some leniency in suspicion because it was quite early in the game.

Quote

So, reads. Mild suspicion on Gears for claim, Lotus vote, and summarizing but not analyzing posts. Slight village on Lotus for claim. Slight suspicion on TJ for post quoted above.

@Mist: Why mild suspicion on claim? He's done it previously as villager and told he'd do it every game before hand. I'd expect everyone else to read it as NAI. Again, with summarizing. He's been doing it in all his previous games, all which he's been village. Suspicion on me because I apparently told not to share suspicion, whereas I clearly said be cautious in sharing suspicion during the night cycles, and if you must, do so at the very end of the cycle. 

Quote

So... I’m not sure. I’ll probably vote towards the majority of the cycle for the PMs (like I’ll use them...), but I’m torn on this one. I’m reading Gears the most suspicious, but Lotus isn’t that far behind and Illwei’s vote swap is also bugging me. So I’ll keep out of this one.

@Ashbringer: Feels a bit like hedging, but Ashbringer's post since then are not suspicious. 

On 9/28/2020 at 7:51 AM, Kynedath said:
  • Gears (8): Xino, Venture, Matrim’s Dice, Vapor, Mist, Kings Way, Ashbringer, Devotary

Out of the 8 votes, Xino, Venture, Vapor, Mist, and King's Way (please tell me if I'm wrong, I might have added an extra name) voted because of Gears's elim claim, which is a very easy reason you could get away with.

17 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Finally finished all of my things and caught up with the thread! So, here we go...

Initially I was confused about your first post, Illwei, but that has sense been cleared up, at least in my mind. But I was interested in the part I bolded, as I had sorta forgot what your reasons were. So I went back to check that D1 post you did.

What I see there is that you came to the conclusion of nothing: Two equally feasible ideas (elim!LotusAdjud claiming for protection/alibi and vil!LotusAdjud claiming for protection) and you leaning more on the elim side of things, but when you vote on Lotus:

...That doesn't make much sense and doesn't have anything to do with what you had previously said, iirc. Then you eventually retract:

Which I would say that elim!AdjudicatorLotus' teammates would not let her claim. First off, it was right after we were discussing elim adjudicators as a possibility and that we were scared of them and would like to be rid of them if they do in fact exist. Moments later Lotus claims and Gears immediately jumps on her for that specific reason. Secondly, an elim adjudicator is a very powerful role and if I were elim!adjudicatorLotus' teammate, I would definitely want to keep that as quiet as possible. So I just don't see that being how it works out, at all. I'm decently sure Lotus is village.

But then that brings up the question of why she's still alive. There are basically three options, all I believe which have been mentioned before:

  1. Devotary used her actor ability on Lotus (which makes sense visually but not a whole lot of sense considering Lotus was the expected kill target, though I guess it's possible Devotary sacrificed herself for the belief of Lotus' survival...)
  2. The elims are setting up a possible mislynch later (I think is was Ash who said this?)
  3. The elims viewed Lotus as a far to obvious kill target.

Anyway, I kinda went off on a tangent there, so back to Illwei's retraction:

 The first paragraph is talking about Gears. What I don't see there is a reason to retract from Lotus, or even an explanation for voting on her in the first place.

Illwei ends the day with, I believe, is a fairly NAI or Null reading on Lotus.

Flash forward to this cycle:

Remember Illwei voted Lotus for reasons from last cycle. Which as I already discovered... don't really exist :P. Anyway, on to more explaining by Illwei:

I get the possibility that Lotus wasn't NK'd because she's an elim herself, but... I see so many other more likely options than just that. I also think it's odd you're pushing this so hard after a fairly NAI end read at the conclusion of D1. It seems like you would have considered that more before immediately jumping on with a vote. 

Basically saying the same thing that was already said.

One more thing: Here's a specific part of the above post:

See, the problem that I'm having here is that you know and acknowledge that one of your major points for voting Lotus (getting the adjudicator out of the way before the elims do) is entirely useless now, and still don't retract your vote. And still haven't. Even then, your two points about voting Lotus are contradictory: One suggests Vil!Lotus, and one suggests Elim!Lotus. The first which has been proven invalid now, the second which I fundamentally disagree with.

On top of that, you've been a lot more confusing this game than I remember you being ever before. So I'll join Venture in voting Illwei. After reflection I really don't think Lotus is elim.

 

TL;DR: Illwei said that they were voting Lotus for 'reasons expressed last cycle', which I found there to be none. Then, the two reasons they gave this cycle not only are half incorrect, but contradict each other entirely. I don't think Lotus is an elim because I see no situation in which her teammates would let her claim.

After reading Illwei's posts this cycle, and before reaching Matrim's post, my thought process was exactly the same. This post perfectly tells everything I wanted to tell. 

Now since then Illwei has explained the reason of votes in previous cycles my suspicion has decreased a bit, but why explain now after bring suspected? They had the opportunity multiple times when different players expressed confusion over their vote. I'm confused over them, in my mind they've been too suspicious to be an elim. Either a villager trying to trap some elims (like Venture perhaps) or Spy. I also agree with them about Venture being suspicious which decreases my suspicion on Illwei. 

My 2 cents on the Devotary death: I feel Devotary is a very careful player, and I really do not think she would have swapped with Lotus as she knew Lotus could possibly be the target of the elim kill. 

Elim pool: Venture (Vote + Venture's post this cycle), Xinoehp (Vote), Mist(Vote + suspicion in this post), King's Way (vote + post mentioned in D1) and Lotus. Out of these, I feel strongly about Mist

A bit about Lotus as well. @Illwei, why do you think claim to be role swapped in not elim indicative? It makes perfect sense, if she's no longer an Adjudicator, we no longer have reason to lynch her, and she can give the reason that the elims no longer want to kill her as the reason for staying alive.

Think that's about it. Will try to come around the rollover time and see if the votes are close. 

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7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

A bit about Lotus as well. @Illwei, why do you think claim to be role swapped in not elim indicative? It makes perfect sense, if she's no longer an Adjudicator, we no longer have reason to lynch her, and she can give the reason that the elims no longer want to kill her as the reason for staying alive.

I mean, yeah, that was my first thought, but then I was thinking that if that were the case she would have said it right away, not only after she was prompted. as well as I also see downsides to Elim!Lotus claiming that (as explained before) but also now that I think about it, I guess it wouldn't be worth it for Elim!Lotus to say anything unless she was prompted, because anything would draw attention to her.

But basically I guess it's because Elk seconded so as far as we know, it did happen. so an event that just happened to lotus isn't telling of her alignment. Iadon could have swapped Elim!Lotus or Village!Lotus. if Elk flips Elim though I'll be a tad more sus though.

Edited by Illwei
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1 hour ago, Illwei said:

 - I am currently suspicious of Matrim, Venture, Xino, and King for gears votes yesterday

IIRC my vote on Gears was the third one, before it became a train.

11 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

My 2 cents on the Devotary death: I feel Devotary is a very careful player, and I really do not think she would have swapped with Lotus as she knew Lotus could possibly be the target of the elim kill. 

So do you think Lotus is/was an actor as well, or that the elims targeted Devotary outright? 

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2 hours ago, Illwei said:

EDIT: idk if edits tag people, but @Elkanah @TJ Shade you guys haven't really said anything today. ?

It worked ^_^. Yeah sorry. Allow me to repent

 

Day 2 Reads

Elkanah - Seconds Lotus' claim the adjudicator has been moved. Been Eerily quiet this turn. Votes Xino for the same reasons as last cycle. Definitely village

Matrim - Does post by post analysis of Illwei. Stab votes Illwei. His posts sound honest to me and I am reading him as slightly village. Unfortunately, I always have and I'm worried that's my own bias. He does open the potential for a Matrim - Lotus elim team.

Kings Way - Still feels off to me. It's probably because this is the first game that I have played with them... but I was perturbed by some of their posts day one and day two has done little to change that. Slightly elim

Ventyl - So, what are your thoughts now that someone has claimed they received the adjudicator role? Do you still intend to lynch Lotus? I'm pinging you about your vote. @Ventyl Your first post felt weird in a similar way to some of your posts from Day one, but that really ins't enough to go after you. Very Slightly elim.

Illwei - Has explained himself enough times that I'm not going to do it again. I get the feeling that they are a villager who is running out of patience. Gears had a similar feeling last cycle. Of course I've made this mistake before, but I think you're fine. Very slight village

Ashbringer - I'm not getting anything from this cycle so far. You went after Illwei for a bit, but it seems like you are not voting for him. It's weird because I always think you're bad, but I'm not getting that this time. It's probably nothing, but I thought I'd note it in case it turns into something. I guess what bugs me is it feels like you're playing safe... which there is nothing wrong with that. I'm kind of playing safe as well because I'd like to be around to solve the game. It's just notable. Very slightly village

Lotus - I repeat the call by Ashbringer for someone to refute the claim. I'd love to know if my source is lying. The silence so far could mean a couple of things. a) Lotus was successfully switched to the person I am talking with. b) Lotus and my contact are both elims. c) the actual new adjudicator is waiting to reveal via PM to someone to avoid being lynched or night killed for claiming adjudicator in thread. slight village

Venture - Stab votes Illwei. Feels honest even though I disagree. very slight village

Vapor - The shard is so mean! I'm excited for the more later. Null

Mist - I am likewise excited for your reads list. I would agree that Devotary was a reputation kill... unless tags are fair game information. If they are, then "shenanigans" tells me Devotary was not in fact the target. Null

TJ Shade - Ninja's like a pro. Votes Mist... which is interesting. Gives likely elim pool as Venture, Xino, Mist, Kings Way, and Lotus. I can get behind two of those with maybes on the other two. Xino and Kings Way are top suspicions for me with Venture and Mist as maybe. I don't know why elim Lotus claims when she did. Null

 

Yet to Post Today

@xinoehp512

@Lord_Silberfarben

 

And an unsolicited vote count in case I become too trustworthy

Lotus (1): Illwei, Ventyl

Xinoehp (1): Elkanah

Illwei (3): Venture, Matrim, Lotus

Venture (1): Illwei

Silberfarben (1): Ashbringer

Mist (1): TJ Shade

 

Looks like sociallites might get unlocked. I'm happy to talk :D

Edited by Elkanah
Edited for color
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5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

And an unsolicited vote count in case I become too trustworthy

Ah, perfect. :P.

EDIT: While it's lovely that we might unlock group PMs, may I suggest two people per vote target, as to not allow the monk to gain their ability?

Edited by Illwei
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6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Ah, perfect. :P.

EDIT: While it's lovely that we might unlock group PMs, may I suggest two people per vote target, as to not allow the monk to gain their ability?

I'll do you one better. What if no one votes and everyone can do all the PMs? JK, what you're saying makes sense. I might move to Silberfarben, but Ashbringer might move to Xino and it would be awkward if we missed each other. Also, allowing for an extra role block or body guard doesn't really concern me. I mean, if I get roleblocked over it I guess that kind of sucks, but no one is going to have enough for a seer contract this turn and the rest of the abilities except the exec sec aren't especially important. Further, the monk is as likely to block the elim kill as the exec's ability scan and if we catch a role blocker or bodyguard - presto we found the monk. Yeah, I've talked myself out of switching. At least until I find someone more suspicious or Xino makes himself less suspicious.

Unless of course this is your way of trying to create a hammer whereby you save yourself. Hmmm well played :) 

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42 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

 

Ventyl - So, what are your thoughts now that someone has claimed they received the adjudicator role? Do you still intend to lynch Lotus? I'm pinging you about your vote. @Ventyl Your first post felt weird in a similar way to some of your posts from Day one, but that really ins't enough to go after you. Very Slightly elim.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And an unsolicited vote count in case I become too trustworthy

Lotus (1): Illwei, Ventyl

Xinoehp (1): Elkanah

Illwei (3): Venture, Matrim, Lotus

Venture (1): Illwei

Silberfarben (1): Ashbringer

Mist (1): TJ Shade

 

Looks like sociallites might get unlocked. I'm happy to talk :D

At this point, I’m still suspicious of Lotus. As you’re contact could be lying about being an Adjudicator, and Lotus could’ve lied about being one in the first place. The latter gives me giant elim buzzer noises, as I think lying about your role is usually an elim move. Besides that, I think you should consider that there may be an elim!Lotus + elim!You’re secret contact, whom you won’t give us their name, team. That might just be my paranoia talking, but I think it’s something worth considering Elk.

I might just leave my vote on Lotus, considering I still do want them dead as I feel like they’ve been getting a lot less attention than they deserve for what they’ve done in thread. They’ve also hardly contributed much to the game as a whole, which is always an elim sign for me. But the main reason I’ll keep it on her now is so we can get some group PMs. If you have anymore questions about my vote, I did make a long post earlier this turn, so it might answer some things! 

Are you a Socialite by any chance, Elkanah??

 

Edited by Ventyl
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22 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I might move to Silberfarben, but Ashbringer might move to Xino and it would be awkward if we missed each other.

Well, from what I know about Silber's activity his time zone is probably asleep right now, so I doubt I'll get a reaction from him. He also hasn't been on in a day, where Xino was last on an hour ago...

So...

Silber (this feels familiar), Xinoehp? @xinoehp512, any thoughts?

(Crosses fingers that Elkanah doesn't ninja me with a retraction)

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9 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

At this point, I’m still suspicious of Lotus. As you’re contact could be lying about being an Adjudicator, and Lotus could’ve lied about being one in the first place. The latter gives me giant elim buzzer noises, as I think lying about your role is usually an elim move. Besides that, I think you should consider that there may be an elim!Lotus + elim!You’re secret contact, whom you won’t give us their name, team. That might just be my paranoia talking, but I think it’s something worth considering Elk.

I might just leave my vote on Lotus, considering I still do want them dead as I feel like they’ve been getting a lot less attention than they deserve for what they’ve done in thread. They’ve also hardly contributed much to the game as a whole, which is always an elim sign for me. But the main reason I’ll keep it on her now is so we can get some group PMs. If you have anymore questions about my vote, I did make a long post earlier this turn, so it might answer some things! 

 

That's a solid point. I even brought it up here

50 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Lotus - I repeat the call by Ashbringer for someone to refute the claim. I'd love to know if my source is lying. The silence so far could mean a couple of things. a) Lotus was successfully switched to the person I am talking with. b) Lotus and my contact are both elims. c) the actual new adjudicator is waiting to reveal via PM to someone to avoid being lynched or night killed for claiming adjudicator in thread

I maintain that I doubt an elim adjudicator would have claimed where Lotus did... that could mean it's working. I don't mean to completely shut down the idea that Lotus is an elim, but I am willing to wait for a little more information (maybe more PMs) before coming to the conclusion that Lotus and an elim are tying themselves together so tightly.

Ninja'd by Ashbringer

Haha that was a close one XD XD XD

No I'd like more info from Xino at least and he is my highest suspicion, so my vote is staying there for now.

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