Mid-Range Game 44: Obligations

[Elandera]

44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well the cycle is only half over, and currently you're tied, not out way ahead. So I wouldn't say that at all.

Not quite tied. Stink voted on him as well, so he's one ahead.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

In my opinion chaotic players make it harder for the rest of the village- it just causes confusion. The only thing it might serve is I guess you having fun (that's kinda a good point though) and setting it up so that people might write it off as just your playstyle in further games when you really are an Elim.

I slightly distrust Elandera right now, but that's just because I have a general distrust of people who post vote counts unprompted.

The above is partly why I post vote counts occasionally. Most of it though is for myself, especially when there are several votes on different people. Like I nearly put a vote on Elkanah for voting on himself, until I realized that would actually put him tied with Gears and a joke like that isn't worth a lynch IMO. Also, thought this was an QF this morning, so I thought we were running out of time.

Also, there's lots of reasons to be chaotic. Sleep deprivation being mine this game. Woo! Others, it's just how they play, like Stink or Alvron. I think the issue most people have with Gears is not the humor behind the claims (though the village claim itself is usually off-putting). It's the super defensiveness that started basically as soon as one vote was placed. That tends to be a new elim tell, especially with newer players. They panic a little when one vote is placed because they think it might start a bandwagon. I know I did it my first elim game. Got lynched D1 as a result. It was terrible.

57 minutes ago, Gears said:

My death is now guaranteed.

Not quite so guaranteed, but probable. D1 lynches are flimsy, and there is more reason here than most first lynches. But as I said, at least for me, the claim is less of an issue than the extreme defensiveness so early in the turn.

[Mat]

Just now, Elandera said:

Not quite tied. Stink voted on him as well, so he's one ahead.

Ah, I missed Vapor's vote. Indeed.

[Araris Valerian]

3 hours ago, Gears said:

Getting lynched as an elim will make it more difficult for the village since statistically, when an elim is caught D1, it's harder for the village.

I think this depends. If this was always true, elims would probably just get themselves deliberately lynched D1. I’d guess that accidentally lynching an elim is what can hurt the village. And by that I mean that the D1 lynch is usually pretty random.

3 hours ago, Gears said:

All of the outcomes are good for me, not necessarily the village.

While I encourage you to try out different playstyles, I’d also caution you that this is a team game, and it’s important to strike a balance between having fun and working to assist your team. 

[+Sorana]

13 hours ago, Gears said:

All of the outcomes are good for me, not necessarily the village.

Actually, I feel as if most of the outcomes are actually bad for the village. Like right now, you definitely dominated this cycles discussion, which if you are a villager leads to a lot of attention to your posts, and therefore makes it easier for an elim to hide in between.

Additionally I interpreted your post in a way, that you try to establish this kind of claiming as a part of playstyle. In that case you end up with two "free" posts each first cycle. You are already known for your analys and then you have the "joke claiming" as a second one. It offers you a way to post twice the first day, without giving off any indication regarding your alignment, which in the end is bad for the village again.

Anyway I'm not convinced your joke/ ploy is worth lynching you for, not without something else to go off, although your defensivness does trip me off a little (as mentioned in my previous post).

I dislike the way Joe and Vapor jumped on the Gears train a little, and given the fact that voting Vapor will result in a tie, resulting in no information at all, I'll place my vote on Joe @A Joe in the Bush for the moment.

[Elandera]

14 minutes ago, Sorana said:

I dislike the way Joe and Vapor jumped on the Gears train a little, and given the fact that voting Vapor will result in a tie, resulting in no information at all, I'll place my vote on Joe @A Joe in the Bush for the moment.

I understand you're a little suspicious of Gears, but at this point, your vote is very, very non-committal. If you're suspicious of Vapor for jumping on the Gears train, why is that not worth a vote to tie it up? Yes, ties won't be useful at the end of a turn, but there's time for someone to make a decision and break that tie. That might be more telling in the end for other players. Right now, it seems as if you're trying to distance yourself from Vapor without fully throwing them under the bus.

[+Sorana]

20 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I understand you're a little suspicious of Gears, but at this point, your vote is very, very non-committal. If you're suspicious of Vapor for jumping on the Gears train, why is that not worth a vote to tie it up? Yes, ties won't be useful at the end of a turn, but there's time for someone to make a decision and break that tie. That might be more telling in the end for other players. Right now, it seems as if you're trying to distance yourself from Vapor without fully throwing them under the bus.

Actually I counted the votes and realized that it was only me left resulting in a tie leading to no information at all. And that was exactly what I was trying to avoid, because no lynch and no information is worse than a misslynch. I can easily have missed someone, but I dislike to create a situation that, given the few hours left and many asleep can easily lead to a lost cycle.

But then, it's my first game here, so I'll heed your advice and go with the I'm a tad more suspicious off. Vapor. Joe.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Sorana
found a type

[---]

I mean, people can still change their vote after they've voted. Example A:

I mean, there's no way I'm going to convince everyone to lynch Matrim in the next ...? hours? (not that I'm overly attached to killing him.) :P.
So... Gears :). 

[xinoehp512]

Votes:

Elkanah (2) - Araris, Elkanah
Gears (4) - Sart, Joe, Vapor, Illwei
Vapor (4) - Matrim, Elandera, Gears, Sorana

It seems there is a tie, which seems unfavorable. In the interest of ensuring a lynch, Gears. Between the two candidates up for vote, they give me the more elim gut vibe.

---

Borzen Oeszno awoke in the middle of a forest and immediately knew he was asleep.

He could tell he was asleep because of the trees, which were colored vividly in... well, every color except blue. It was certainly a striking sight. Stories had told him that was the way the world had been before the Lord Ruler, when the land had still been alive.

(Personally, he wondered what the trees had against blue.)

That was sub-optimal. Today was his first day in the Steel Ministry; it was no time to be sleepwalking. Much as he liked being in the forest, he needed to have all of his attention focused on the task at hand.

(Although, really- why blue?)

He reached for his forearms, where his bracers usually were. To his surprise, they were absent. That was very odd. That had never happened before. They couldn't have been removed from his person- he'd surely have woken up if they had.

(I mean, some of the leaves were purple. It wasn't like nature was incapable of rendering that end of the spectrum.)

He checked his pack. No bracers. This was quite concerning. Without the bracers, he had no idea how he was supposed to wake himself up. Eventually the bracers would fill up and snap him out of it, sure, but that could take days. In the meantime, he'd be stuck viewing the world through his brain's strange dream-like interpretation.

(Maybe it had all been used up on the sky.)

Oh, well. Hopefully it wouldn't be a problem.

[Mat]

24 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

It seems there is a tie, which seems unfavorable. In the interest of ensuring a lynch, Gears. Between the two candidates up for vote, they give me the more elim gut vibe.

Not a tie:

Spoiler

 

Elkanah (2): Araris Valerian, Elkanah 

Gears (5): Sart, A Joe in the Bush, Vapor, STINK, Illwei 

Vapor (4): Matrim’s Dice, Elandera, Gears, Sorana 

 

 

And with your vote:

Spoiler

 

Elkanah (2): Araris Valerian, Elkanah 

Gears (6): Sart, A Joe in the Bush, Vapor, STINK, Illwei, Xino 

Vapor (4): Matrim’s Dice, Elandera, Gears, Sorana 

 

 

Anyway, I think I've expressed how I dislike the Gears train. That sort of thing seems fairly NAI to me- and he has explained the whole claiming-elim thing before. Though it is true that it's not very helpful to anyone.

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Elkanah]

All right, since @Elkanah posted, I'll remove my vote for now. Elkanah, I'm still watching you.

I don't think Gears' claim is especially egregious. I do understand the play and I have a friend IRL who favors the strategy. The downside is he had to be lynched night one a couple dozen times before it worked once and he was able to claim elim as an elim and won the game off his personal meta. Even still I have friends who will attempt to lynch him night one to stop the claims. 

It is a very long term strategy, but if you're committed to it, I don't have a problem with it. 

Now to actual game talk. I find nothing gears had said to be AI. I'll vote vapor but if there ends up being a tie I'm willing to retract. Gears scared me with his analysis in the quick fix and if we're on the same team, I would prefer to keep him around.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Elkanah
Color

[Araris Valerian]

40 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I don't think Gears' claim is especially egregious. I do understand the play and I have a friend IRL who favors the strategy. The downside is he had to be lynched night one a couple dozen times before it worked once and he was able to claim elim as an elim and won the game off his personal meta. Even still I have friends who will attempt to lynch him night one to stop the claims. 

The problem is that it is a ploy, and everyone who voted on him fell for it. If we find elim claims annoying (and I sort of do), then the best thing is to just ignore them. 

I am not a fan of lynching either Gears or Vapor right now, and it doesn’t seem like Elkanah is getting any votes. I suppose I’ll vote on Vapor, although I know it causes a tie. I’m sort of okay with that because I don’t like these wagons, but I guess if I had to pick I’d prefer a lynch on Vapor over Gears.

[Straw]

The cycle is over!

[Straw]

You were supposed to root out the Skaa, but that didn't end up happening. You all got in a big fight and nothing happened. Someone did suddenly die, so maybe that'll give you something to discuss.

---

Elandera has died! They were a Steel Ministry Thug!
Vote Count:
Gears (6): A Joe in the Bush, Illwei, Sart, STINK, Vapor, xinoehp512
Vapor (6): Araris Valerian, Elandera, Elkanah, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sorana
GM Notes:
-The cycle will end on August 19th, at 1:00 PM EST.
Player List:

 

1. @A Joe in the Bush
2. @Araris Valerian
3. Elandera Steel Ministry Thug
4. @Elkanah
5. @Gears
6. @Illwei
7. @Lord_Silberfarben
8. @Matrim's Dice
9. @STINK
10. @Sart
11. @Sorana
12. @Vapor
13. @xinoehp512

Edited August 17, 2020 by Straw

[xinoehp512]

This is unfortunate.

I do not have a surplus of time, but I will start the voting with Araris. I don't like how they caused a tie- Araris has always been a staunch supporter of a day one lynch, and this seems very out of character.

[---]

I was about to vote Araris as well but now that someone else has I think I'll let it sit for a bit.

EDIT: I don't think either of the two candidates from last cycle were that great though, so I can understand not wanting to kill people based off of that I guess?

Edited August 17, 2020 by Illwei

[Elkanah]

Oof. I got the time zones wrong. I was getting on right now to make sure there wasn't a tie. Sorry everyone.

[Mat]

Am I the only one who feels like that cycle went really fast?

Things worth mentioning about Elan:

• They were suspicious of Vapor and not suspicious of Gears
• Illwei slightly suspected them
• They should've used their action

Also, as Xino just mentioned, Araris made the lynch tie. Which is different than usual. Agreed on Illwei about the slight suspicion there, and letting it sit.

[---]

Just now, Elkanah said:

Oof. I got the time zones wrong. I was getting on right now to make sure there wasn't a tie. Sorry everyone.

Me too, for some reason I thought rollover was an hour later...

[Gears]

This is quite possibly the worst outcome. We are in the same state as last cycle except we are down a player. An analysis of every post made last cycle [since there weren't that many, thankfully]

1 Araris: Stabs Elkanah 

2 Gears: Laments village status. Analyses roles.

3 Matrim: Exists.

4 Araris: Banter

5 Sart: Asks about gaining metal. Votes Gears for lamenting village.

6 Straw: Answers the peasants

7 Matrim: Claims vanilla [suboptimal]

8 Gears: Claims elim

9 Elandera: Exists

10 Araris: Claims, even vanillas, are not helpful

11 Matrim: Didn't realise. Reclaims Coinshot [probably joke]. Pokes Vapor

12 Joe: Follows Sart in voting Gears [repeating reasoning]

13 Gears: Reclaims elim 

14 Joe: Revotes Gears

15 Gears: Eulogy

16 Joe: Wasn't double voting

17 Vapor: Exists, votes Gears [no reasoning]

18 Gears: Further nonsensical ramblings.

19 Matrim: Was going to remove poke but doesn't like lack of reasoning.

20 Araris: Thinks Gears is wrong

21 Gears: Joking

22 Illwei: Thinks Gears is being too risky for an elim. Votes Matrim for vanilla claim. 

23 Matrim: Was stupid for claiming, even if slightly miffed

24 Silber: Exists

25 Araris: Doesn't understand joke

26 Elkanah: Self-votes [joke?]

27 Joe: Notes people who haven't posted

28 Sorana: Exists

29 Gears: Reasoning

30 Sorana: Shut up, Gears

31 Elandera: Votes Vapor for bandwagoning

32 Matrim: Agrees with Sorana, Gears NAI

33 Gears: Votes Vapor for shoddy reasoning

34 STINK: Votes Gears for weird reasoning and feeding a dead horse

35 Gears: Clarifies assumption. Fatalistic opinions

36 Matrim: Thinks vote tied

37 Illwei: Chaos = bad

38 Elandera: Gears lynch because of defensiveness

39 Matrim: Missed Vapor's vote

40 Araris: Playstyle ~. Help team?

41 Sorana: Doesn't like Gears's attempted playstyle. Votes Joe

42 Elandera: Sorana's vote non-commital

43 Sorana: Follows Elandera's advice, retracts Joe, votes Vapor [no reasoning]

44 Illwei: No traction on Matrim lynch, so retracts Matrim, votes Gears [no reasoning]

45 xino: Votes Gears to avoid tie and gut. [no/little reasoning]

46 Matrim: Wasn't a tie, doesn't like the Gears lynch. 

47 Elkanah: Retracts Elkanah, votes Vapor because they like Gears

48 Araris: Votes Vapor and ties the lynch [differs from standard]

Given that I claimed elim, I understand that people would be less forthcoming with reasoning, but Vapor and Illwei voted on Gears with no reasoning and Joe and xino voted on Gears with repeated/gut reasoning. Sorana voted Vapor with no reasoning [other than mentioning that they seemed slightly more suspicious than Gears] and Elkanah voted Vapor because they wanted to keep Gears around. Araris's vote is particularly significant because it is a deviation from Araris's established playstyle of wanting a D1 lynch. However, I do not see why Araris would do this. If I'm a villager, they have no stake in the lynch. If I'm an elim, they would take suspicion when I die. If this is an attempt at pocketing, it is heavy-handed. As such, I do not think Araris is an elim. 

[---]

Ah yes, my reasoning. sorry- I actually did write it, but then didn't post it for...I- I don't know why. I was planning on making another post but then I forgot that Rollover was at 10 and not 11 for me. 

I put it in a quote because I can

Quote

I think the votes on Vapor are more concerning to me than the votes on Gears. Matrim - Poke vote it seems (unless he has subscibed to Araris' er...stabby... ways), Elandera and Sorana who voted because of the "bandwagony" part of the vote, which I mean seems to me fine especially on D1 when we basically know nothing and Gears was acting sorta suspicious...and Gears who...wait I don't see the post where gears votes hold on - okay they're also here because of vapor's bandwagon vote...okay...

so...
yeah I don't think Vapor should die for voting on gears when gears was acting suspicious, and IMO it's better to lynch a chaotic player than not with no other reasoning there. that's basically it. 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by Illwei

[Gears]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

yeah I don't think Vapor should die for voting on gears when gears was acting suspicious, and IMO it's better to lynch a chaotic player than not with no other reasoning there. that's basically it. 

This explains why you were commenting on chaotic playstyles. I thank you for explaining your reasoning. It seems understandable. However, given that you did not post this earlier, this could be an excuse written after the fact to explain your vote. I do not suspect you as of yet, but you have been noted. 

[Mat]

Hmm. I'm not liking the feeling I'm getting from Illwei right now.

As I've said before, they slightly suspected Elandera, and myself, with little reasoning. Then this post:

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think the votes on Vapor are more concerning to me than the votes on Gears. Matrim - Poke vote it seems (unless he has subscibed to Araris' er...stabby... ways), Elandera and Sorana who voted because of the "bandwagony" part of the vote, which I mean seems to me fine especially on D1 when we basically know nothing and Gears was acting sorta suspicious...and Gears who...wait I don't see the post where gears votes hold on - okay they're also here because of vapor's bandwagon vote...okay...

so...
yeah I don't think Vapor should die for voting on gears when gears was acting suspicious, and IMO it's better to lynch a chaotic player than not with no other reasoning there. that's basically it.

Where they say they think the votes on Vapor are more concerning, and then going on to confirm that they are a poke vote (which turned into a half-reasoned vote), bandwagon votes that 'seem fine', and a self preservation vote, which are basically the same as the votes on Gears. The votes on Gears include: A half-reasoned vote, a lot of bandwagon votes, and a self preservation vote.

So the reasonings and votes for those two are nearly identical, and Gears's train picked up more speed than Vapor's, which I find more concerning.

So, Illwei, consider yourself suspected, for those reasons, plus a bit of gut feeling in there as well.

[Araris Valerian]

To be honest, I didn't expect the lynch to end in a tie. There were still around 90 minutes left in the cycle when I posted, and I thought at least Elkanah was going to retract if there was a tie. I also was pretty against the Gears lynch, which is probably what would have happened had someone broken the tie. Not because I necessarily think Gears is village, but because Gears had explicitly mentioned doing this exact thing in a previous game. Since his claim is totally unrelated to anything going on in this game, lynching him gives us rather little information, especially if he flips village.

I will also say that I'm more in favor of D1 lynch discussion with explicit threat of death, rather than someone actually dying. Usually the distinction is irrelevant, but it does mean I'm comfortable with no lynch given that I don't like the options available.

I'm going to vote on Elkanah. You voted on Vapor (bringing the vote closer to a tie), but then said you would probably retract if the vote became a tie (which would require either an extra vote on Vapor or a retraction from Gears). So you can't really have wanted to lynch Vapor, since anyone bringing Vapor closer to getting lynched would have led to you retracting.

[Gears]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to vote on Elkanah. You voted on Vapor (bringing the vote closer to a tie), but then said you would probably retract if the vote became a tie (which would require either an extra vote on Vapor or a retraction from Gears). So you can't really have wanted to lynch Vapor, since anyone bringing Vapor closer to getting lynched would have led to you retracting.

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Oof. I got the time zones wrong. I was getting on right now to make sure there wasn't a tie. Sorry everyone.

Could have been an excuse, could have been genuine error. I'm leaning towards genuine error, but I will admit that we don't really have much to go off of.

[---]

52 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm. I'm not liking the feeling I'm getting from Illwei right now.

As I've said before, they slightly suspected Elandera, and myself, with little reasoning. Then this post:

Where they say they think the votes on Vapor are more concerning, and then going on to confirm that they are a poke vote (which turned into a half-reasoned vote), bandwagon votes that 'seem fine', and a self preservation vote, which are basically the same as the votes on Gears. The votes on Gears include: A half-reasoned vote, a lot of bandwagon votes, and a self preservation vote.

So the reasonings and votes for those two are nearly identical, and Gears's train picked up more speed than Vapor's, which I find more concerning.

So, Illwei, consider yourself suspected, for those reasons, plus a bit of gut feeling in there as well.

What I saw was a bunch of people bandwagon...ing? on Vapor because Vapor band...wagon...ed? on Gears. Seeing people bandwagon on someone for bandwagoning is what made me trust that less. 

Also yes sorry I don't believe in lynching chaotic players for the sake of it, but if its a decision between two people i don't know enough about then Chaoticism is a ...er...deciding....factor? I'm having trouble with words.

I didn't really want to lynch either Gears or Vapor but I did want to lynch someone.