Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[---]

Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

Also, to the thread, why are people voting on Illwei?

From what i've gathered its my unhelpful edits? or my very helpful white text

also maybe few people that took your role claim suggestion and decided i was an elim trying to role claim

[+Lotus]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

because I am attempting to pm less to lower my chances of catching something, even if canonically the diseases give superpowers.

I found this part absolutely hilarious for some reason. 

[Straw]

3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Also, to the thread, why are people voting on Illwei?

I don't know about the others, but I'm voting on him due to his edits being confusing. I'll go reread his posts right now, and see if I want to keep my vote or retract it.

[|TJ|]

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So, in the interest of village to know a little bit more information (and for the players not to assume I'm rudely ignoring your messages), here's a little something about my role. I do have a disease that has a penalty. It has sealed my lips and blocked my ears. I am unable to start a PM or reply to the PMs I have received. It might be related to the history that Straw told, and I do not know if the condition is temporary or permanent. 

So, @The Young Pyromancer, there. I'm willing to trade the information, just not with you in PMs, but with the rest of the village as well  You may send information back in return here in thread or as a PM.

So, apparently @The Young Pyromancerhas not seen this and has sent me another PM expecting me to reply, seemingly not knowing that I have a disease. 

Pyro, I can't reply to you. Please read the above quoted post. I have a disease, which is funny because you seem to have decreased PMing because you think you can get infected by PMing, but you chose one person to PM who is in fact infected xD 

Edited August 4, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Ashbringer]

Okay, here's what I have for reads and things:

• Matrim - first post. Reads TJ weird, but feels like that's more TJ's style than his alignment. Seemed to think Mist didn't know the tale of Faleast the Kandra when Mist was the only one I claimed Kandra to in LG66 ().
• Silberfarben - had a plan to have fake alignment scan results, so that a real alignment scanner could post their results in a herd and we can look back at them when they die and their role becomes confirmed. While it has some merit, I feel like alignment scanners are rare enough that they can just claim, we lynch the accused Elim, and if they were wrong we lynch (or vigilante, if we have that somewhere) the accuser. I can't tell what the intent behind it is, but I'm more inclined to push for activity as Silber successfully hid as a mostly-inactive Elim/"Elim" for two consecutive games. So consider this a stab vote.
• Striker - repeated what Lotus and I said about not revealing roles, which to me feels a little off.
• Pyro - voted on Striker for the above^, first vote, for "wanting to conceal information". I have yet to recieve a PM from Pyro, which is kinda interesting considering he PM'd TJ, but NAI. Called out TJ for rule-bending, came to a truce.
• TJ - tried to get Illwei to tell him the official Village name, which was a little rule-bendy.
• Araris - one post, voting on me, so prepare for some bias. He wrote a summary post on what he thought of Silber's strategy, saying it would be too tedious to figure out and lets Elims find real scanners. He then voted on me for wondering why people shouldn't fake claim. (Plus, he said he wrote a post 2 hours before he posted it at 10:21 PM, but he was responding to one of my posts from 8:44 PM, which is less than 2 hours! Therefore he must be lying and an Elim!... /s (although possibly worth investigating).)
• Illwei - said in a reason for edit that they "don't want to post too many times," which could be noteworthy but is NAI. Editing posts immediately after posting is a little suspicious, but I tend to read Illwei as... what's a good word. Nervous? Panicked? "Flustered" is the word my brain wants to choose, but I don't think its right, and I still can't tell if it's supposed to mean anything. NAI
• Lotus - page 3 Lotus posted an analysis post where she seemed to read everyone Null, or hedged her reads in some way. I doubt an Elim would do this, but I don't think Lotus has been an Elim yet, and I don't like it. But she's contributing a good amount now, so... ironically, Null.

 

Mild Elim: Silber,
Very Mild Elim: Araris, Striker,
Null: Pyro, Illwei (for now), Lotus
Very Mild Village: TJ, Matrim

Have to cut this short - I'm going golfing soon. Will be back in time for Rollover.

[Straw]

Looking back at Illwei's posts, I can't really see anything that swings them either way for me. The one thing that I do find suspicious is their list of reads, which feels inflated. As in, they say a lot more than they need to. For example, they said this for Lahilt: "I have no reasoning to think they're elim..." and this for me: "straw scares me". I don't really see why they'd include either of those comments, since they weren't aiming to say their read on every player. There's also a lot of hedging in there, which seems odd.

[---]

3 hours ago, Straw said:

"I have no reasoning to think they're elim..."

I have no reasoning to think that they're elim but I feel like they're elim 

@Straw Also thanks for still voting on me ig when you say that most of what I say is NAI :P.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Illwei
there's only two posts infront of me

[The_God_King]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm pretty sure TGK's just PAFO'ing everything. I have a background, and he PAFO'd if it's supposed to be a RP tool or a hint to something else. Seeing that other people have them makes me think it does have some game impact. So I wouldn't recommend sharing what it your background happens to be.

As for actual analysis, there hasn't been that much analysis so far. And I'm fresh off of two games of completely awful reads, so I'm hesitant to make a read on someone when there's not a lot of game-related conversation to go off of (discounting TJ's rule-bending).

But seeing as I'm tied for the most votes with Kasimir, who's second vote from himself... I should probably try 

My next post will be analysis.

While I do favor the PAFO, I can answer some questions. Every player is aware of what actions they can take and I will clarify as much as possible. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

So to the person who PMed me, I am not responding because I am attempting to pm less to lower my chances of catching something, even if canonically the diseases give superpowers. I think the whole thing was that they give powers, but they disrupt the thing that makes the cities float? Idk.

I feel like the GMs would have mentioned PMs being open without having to be asked if they were the main mechanic for spreading diseases. There definitely could be a specific disease that spreads through PMs, but that would probably have to be an active choice by the infected rather than a disease that easily reaches everyone. The cities float because of people with a disease that grants levitation abilities. That disease isn't fatal, so probably not all if any of the diseases in this game are fatal.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

While it has some merit, I feel like alignment scanners are rare enough that they can just claim, we lynch the accused Elim, and if they were wrong we lynch (or vigilante, if we have that somewhere) the accuser.

While villager for elim is a good trade, alignment scanner for elim isn't one that's preferable to make. Ideally a scanner would claim to a confirmed villager in PMs, but at the time Silber posted that, we didn't know that was an option(though TJ and Matrim presumably had some idea). 

[The_God_King]

Just a reminder, Day 1 closes at 8 PM MDT  (Approximately 3 hours from now) and Night 1 will pick up around 9 PM MDT

Edited August 4, 2020 by The_God_King

[+Lotus]

I should vote... I just really don’t know.

[---]

So I think I'm going to put a vote on Ashbringer for self preservation, as the other option is Kasimir...and his second vote is...his...so...

I don't have any reason that I can see for voting Ash though so Idk.

I'm kind of suspicious of Pyro and Mist

Edited August 4, 2020 by Illwei

[+Lotus]

Could someone get a vote count? I don’t have the patience right now.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

Could someone get a vote count? I don’t have the patience right now.

• Illwei (3): TJ Shade, Frozen Mint, Straw  
• Ashbringer (3): Araris Valerian, Matrim’s Dice, Illwei
• Kasimir (2): Vapor, Kasimir 
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Lahilt 
• Mist (1): Sart 
• Lord_Silberfarben (1): Ashbringer 
• StrikerEZ (1): The Young Pyromancer

@Lotus I believe this is correct.

[+Lotus]

@Matrim's DiceThanks a million. 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Lotus

[---]

Okay no wait I'm sorry I'm switching to Mist

Ashbringer
Mist

Edited August 4, 2020 by Illwei
voting based on my actual suspicions is scary

[Mat]

Illwei... you do know that when you edit you can add it straight to original post and not just the bottom, right  

[Straw]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei... you do know that when you edit you can add it straight to original post and not just the bottom, right  

Wait, is that what Illwei's been doing? If that's the case, he can just mark the edit with EDIT in front of it in the post.

[---]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei... you do know that when you edit you can add it straight to original post and not just the bottom, right  

No, No, I do know that...

EDIT: so I really kinda don't want to die? so if not really anyone else votes in the next hour I might move my vote back to ash. sorry for so many vote changes

Edited August 5, 2020 by Illwei

[Straw]

So, what's the case on Ash? I haven't really seen anything suspicious from him.

[---]

From what I see Matrim thought it was suspicious that Ash posted a lot of RP but no analysis? 
Araris seemed to do one of their stab votes in the beginning. that one seems to be because Ash said fake claims wouldn't be good?? I think?

was going to tag them but idk if that's polite

 

P.S. I swear my opinions on Pyro and Mist have nothing to do with QF46, though another reason I don't trust Pyro is he is chaotic.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

I posted analysis...

@The_God_King, can we get a vote count?

[Straw]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I posted analysis...

@The_God_King, can we get a vote count?

I think this is right:

• Illwei (3): TJ Shade, Frozen Mint, Straw  
• Ashbringer (2): Araris Valerian, Matrim’s Dice
• Mist (2): Sart, Illwei
• Kasimir (2): Vapor, Kasimir 
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Lahilt 
• Lord_Silberfarben (1): Ashbringer 
• StrikerEZ (1): The Young Pyromancer

[The_God_King]

5 minutes ago, Straw said:

I think this is right:

• Illwei (3): TJ Shade, Frozen Mint, Straw  
• Ashbringer (2): Araris Valerian, Matrim’s Dice
• Mist (2): Sart, Illwei
• Kasimir (2): Vapor, Kasimir 
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Lahilt 
• Lord_Silberfarben (1): Ashbringer 
• StrikerEZ (1): The Young Pyromancer

Thanks, I appreciate you taking the time. That looks correct and it matches what I have @Ashbringer

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, I'm not a fan of the votes on Illwei, because they are entirely for metagame reasons (well, not necessarily all of them, but Straw's was probably prompted by the other votes). I think that's in poor form and also makes the lynch rather useless. So I'm going to switch from Ash to Mist. Alvron, I summon thee! Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide!