Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[|TJ|]

Sooo, I just realized that page breaks are a thing on Shard. I've been typing underscoreunderscoreunderscoreunderscore... like an idiot till now.  

Okay, so here's the list of people I trust  :

Spoiler

Okay time to be serious. Mild elim reads on the following:

• Illwei - I've already given my reasoning.
• Pyro - For thinking Research Intern was a role-claim. And asking if there is a village. And for PMing me willing to "trade information". Anyone else? 
• Matrim - For telling me I'm being weird seemingly to appear a village because he finds me weird every time I'm weird. Then not giving satisfactory answer as to why I'm being weird. Basically said I was over-aggressive (to which I had already apologised at the point).
• Gears: For this piece of information which is obvious to infer and completely unnecessary to state. Does not help the village in any way. Distraction. 

  13 hours ago, Gears said:

  I was actually thinking about the ramifications of claiming elim to start the game. Decision matrix, axes of what I claim and whether the general populace believes me. I claim village, populace believes me: I am written off as a plebian villager, might get killed by elims. I claim village, populace doesn't believe me: I am put under suspicion and possibly lynched, elims won't kill me. I claim elim, populace believes me: I am lynched, which probably will happen for a few village claims until they realise I am lying then... I claim elim, populacer doesn't believe me: I am written off as a plebian villager and won't get cleared by elims. Conclusion: Nothing much will happen, but mind games are always fun. 

Wary:

• Kas - Pulled the same stunt as he did in the QF(i.e. voting on himself). But why repeat it when you have already given your reasoning in the QF and everyone now knows it was a bait? Surely, after telling them it was a bait, you don't expect people to fall for it do you? Behaving like a villager? 

Village reads on Ashbringer, Straw and Vapor. Others are null. 

So, in the interest of village to know a little bit more information (and for the players not to assume I'm rudely ignoring your messages), here's a little something about my role. I do have a disease that has a penalty. It has sealed my lips and blocked my ears. I am unable to start a PM or reply to the PMs I have received. It might be related to the history that Straw told, and I do not know if the condition is temporary or permanent. 

So, @The Young Pyromancer, there. I'm willing to trade the information, just not with you in PMs, but with the rest of the village as well  You may send information back in return here in thread or as a PM. 
@Kasimir, for the same reason, I cannot converse with you like in last game. Sorry 

50 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I’m hoping that by tomorrow, it’ll already be different from today.

The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.  

Page break! xD

---

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

Two people started over toward Illwei, two fellows named Mint and...Canned? something? Canned eels?

(I'm assuming the canned guy is me? xD)

"Hey, listen here pal! The name's Kondrea. Mytow Kondrea. I don't got time for silly squabbles of yours. Either you wrote it down or you didn't. So you guys lost a few samples. Big deal. Research has been going on here since long before your time. There's something a lot larger in play here. Didn't wanna dip my toe in this mess, but guess I hafta now. They took something very valuable to me. Something I was working that would reveal the secrets of the Cataclysm. So if I doubt you, it very well isn't for stealing some samples that are simply being used by your professors to teach you. Ever wonder why you're being paid so less? Yeah."

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

So, in the interest of village to know a little bit more information (and for the players not to assume I'm rudely ignoring your messages), here's a little something about my role. I do have a disease that has a penalty. It has sealed my lips and blocked my ears. I am unable to start a PM or reply to the PMs I have received. It might be related to the history that Straw told, and I do not know if the condition is temporary or permanent. 

@Kasimir, for the same reason, I cannot converse with you like in last game. Sorry 

He that has eyes to see and ears to hear may convince himself that no mortal can keep a secret. If his lips are silent, he chatters with his fingertips; betrayal oozes out of him at every pore. 

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

• Kas - Pulled the same stunt as he did in the QF(i.e. voting on himself). But why repeat it when you have already given your reasoning in the QF and everyone now knows it was a bait? Surely, after telling them it was a bait, you don't expect people to fall for it do you? Behaving like a villager? 

There is no such thing as magic, just illusion. Things only change when we change them. But you have to do it skillfully, in secret. Then it seems like magic.  

Edited to add:

6 hours ago, Mist said:

I also have a background.

Yes.

He Is Evil	A Satanist?		Led By An Unknown Hand.	We belong to the light.
Illwei?	Vapor??	Gears	TJ Shade	Frozen Mint
	Mist?	Matrim	Silberfarben – Araris?
	Lahilt	Devotary	Straw
		Ash
		Pyro
		Sart

Edited August 4, 2020 by Kasimir

[Gears]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Gears: For this piece of information which is obvious to infer and completely unnecessary to state. Does not help the village in any way. Distraction. 

You are correct. It does not help the village. However it does warn the general populace as to my potential future scheme so I won't have to explain myself in the future and it was an organic way of introducing the idea so that I won't be immediately lynched when I first try it [which would be boring]. It was a selfish thought that was specifically meant to infect people with doubt and paranoia on a later date. I feel like you might be reaching a bit, but you tend to be that way. However, if you are an elim, leaning on your playstyle's tendency to be aggressive to cause mislynches would be an excellent tactic. Noted, but reserving judgement. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

There is no such thing as magic, just illusion. Things only change when we change them. But you have to do it skillfully, in secret. Then it seems like magic.  

Kas, you remain my favorite person in the history of time. I bow to your clever words and superior skills.

[Mat]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Matrim - For telling me I'm being weird seemingly to appear a village because he finds me weird every time I'm weird. Then not giving satisfactory answer as to why I'm being weird. Basically said I was over-aggressive (to which I had already apologized at the point).

I had to check through page 1-2 to find the apology, which I had somehow missed while leafing through the 40+ posts that had gone up while I was asleep yesterday. Thanks for saying this, and I'll try not to be paranoiac on you, and ask that you return the favor.

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So, in the interest of village to know a little bit more information (and for the players not to assume I'm rudely ignoring your messages), here's a little something about my role. I do have a disease that has a penalty. It has sealed my lips and blocked my ears. I am unable to start a PM or reply to the PMs I have received. It might be related to the history that Straw told, and I do not know if the condition is temporary or permanent.

I have this as well- so to the 2 PMs I received last night, sorry  you're wasting your time, unfortunately, and it's probably a good idea to let that out so you don't think I'm ignoring ya'll. This tells us a few things, such as that roles/diseases repeat. It does make me wonder about the backgrounds that everyone seems to have- are mine and TJ's the same, because we have the same role/disease? Is that related at all? Do those repeat as well?

And yeah, really liking Kas's playstyle this game.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[+Lotus]

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So, in the interest of village to know a little bit more information (and for the players not to assume I'm rudely ignoring your messages), here's a little something about my role. I do have a disease that has a penalty. It has sealed my lips and blocked my ears. I am unable to start a PM or reply to the PMs I have received. It might be related to the history that Straw told, and I do not know if the condition is temporary or permanent. 

That is quite interesting. I do not have any sort of disease (yet)

[Gears]

Some miscellaneous theories about diseases:

Diseases will kill you faster depending on the strength of the powers they give. [If this is the case, it will be obvious once people with diseases start dying when the village didn't lynch them. Viable with both conversion or standard game].

The elims choose a person to infect with a disease that they have in their numbers, infectiousness differs with different diseases. [I do not think this is a conversion game as people would not claim diseases if they were AI]

This is not a conversion game but rather a game similar to LG67 but with sick people instead of Radiants so both sides have them and illness is NAI. [Probably the most likely game state I can think of. This would work well with the disease=death theory above as it tempers the benefit of infecting people with a disease.

[|TJ|]

9 minutes ago, Gears said:

You are correct. It does not help the village. However it does warn the general populace as to my potential future scheme so I won't have to explain myself in the future and it was an organic way of introducing the idea so that I won't be immediately lynched when I first try it [which would be boring]. It was a selfish thought that was specifically meant to infect people with doubt and paranoia on a later date. I feel like you might be reaching a bit, but you tend to be that way. However, if you are an elim, leaning on your playstyle's tendency to be aggressive to cause mislynches would be an excellent tactic. Noted, but reserving judgement. 

Umm, how does whatever you stated help you not get lynched? There is no reason for a villager to claim anything. This is because if a villager (or anyone) claims that they are village, others have no reason to believe them (other than observing their actions). And a villager has no reason to claim as an elim unless they have a death wish or for some reason, want to mislead the village. Please, can you explain, a bit more clearly, you thought process behind that post? 
And, I'm really trying to be less aggressive. 

37 minutes ago, Gears said:

Kas, you remain my favorite person in the history of time. I bow to your clever words and superior skills.

Watch Dark on Netflix. 

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And yeah, really liking Kas's playstyle this game.

Watch Dark on Netflix.  (Wait, @Kasimir, do you think the content is appropriate for a 14-year old? xD) 

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I have this as well- so to the 2 PMs I received last night, sorry  you're wasting your time, unfortunately, and it's probably a good idea to let that out so you don't think I'm ignoring ya'll. This tells us a few things, such as that roles/diseases repeat. It does make me wonder about the backgrounds that everyone seems to have- are mine and TJ's the same, because we have the same role/disease? Is that related at all? Do those repeat as well?

And for this I change my opinion on you. I'd imagine the elim mindset would be "Wait, will the village be suspicious that there are two people of the same disease, and suspect that both cannot be villagers, and hence deduce that I'm an elim?" It does lead to IKYK scenario, but I'm keeping an open mind and read you as village right now. 

6 minutes ago, Gears said:

Diseases will kill you faster depending on the strength of the powers they give. [If this is the case, it will be obvious once people with diseases start dying when the village didn't lynch them. Viable with both conversion or standard game].

If this is true, then: 

I have a feeling that backgrounds will lead to some kind of action in the future. 

---

@Kasimir

"Man is a strange creature. All his actions are motivated by desire, his character forged by pain. As much as he may try to suppress that pain, to repress the desire, he cannot free himself from the eternal servitude to his feelings. For as long as the storm rages within him, he cannot find peace. Not in life, not in death. And so he will do what he must, day in, day out. The pain is his vessel, desire his compass. It is all that man is capable of.”

 

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Umm, how does whatever you stated help you not get lynched? There is no reason for a villager to claim anything. This is because if a villager (or anyone) claims that they are village, others have no reason to believe them (other than observing their actions). And a villager has no reason to claim as an elim unless they have a death wish or for some reason, want to mislead the village. Please, can you explain, a bit more clearly, you thought process behind that post? 
And, I'm really trying to be less aggressive. 

Once a playstyle is established, people tend to write off that playstyle as standard. If I make it my playstyle to claim elim every single time, then it will be written off as standard, even if I'm an elim claiming elim. Overall, this has no more benefit than claiming villager every time, but it would be strange and thus humorous [at least to me]. Also, it would have the added benefit of making me look somewhat more suspicious, so the elims would be less likely to kill me. This play probably will not go into action ever, but it is fun to think about.

[Kasimir]

14 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Watch Dark on Netflix. 

Watch Dark on Netflix.  (Wait, @Kasimir, do you think the content is appropriate for a 14-year old? xD) 

[OOC OOC] Sigh. I'm going to unbend just enough from my playstyle rn to say: 17S is a family-friendly forum, IIRC I am not really supposed to advocate non-family friendly things, but Dark is a freaking great show. Uh. Let me put it this way: some sexual content, momentary full chest nudity, warning for suicide, warning for some level of violence/gore/blood, warning if you are sensitive about eyes, warning if you hate physics, warning if you hate philosophy why would you hate philosophy what's wrong with you and warning for uh, Game of Thrones Targaryen type stuff. That should cover everything, I think. But it's my favourite TV show of 2020. Highly recommend

5 minutes ago, Gears said:

Once a playstyle is established, people tend to write off that playstyle as standard. If I make it my playstyle to claim elim every single time, then it will be written off as standard, even if I'm an elim claiming elim. Overall, this has no more benefit than claiming villager every time, but it would be strange and thus humorous [at least to me]. Also, it would have the added benefit of making me look somewhat more suspicious, so the elims would be less likely to kill me. This play probably will not go into action ever, but it is fun to think about.

Since I'm already OOCing-OOCing so hard, just noting Jain did that  It was interesting because the first time he legit got Elim and he did that, everyone else was like "uh huh, sure", but the pinch-hitter who came in absolutely did not buy it. That's how we got Jain in the end. (LG12(?), the one that involved the Fire of Elantris.)

Edit: Oh, warning if - as Bong Joon-ho says, you have issues with the inch-high barrier of subtitles, wenn du kein Deutsch kannst  

Edited August 4, 2020 by Kasimir

[+Lotus]

8 hours ago, Mist said:

Tara rushes over to Lucy. "Oh, no!" Who yanked the fire alarm? Lumen? She started reaching towards the odd metal, then stopped. Safety first. She quickly grabs gloves and an apron. Grabbing a clean waste bin, she very carefully begins to scrape the metal off of the counter. "Are you okay, Lacy? Did any of that spill onto you?" She's not sure what, if anything, is safe to mix with the metal. Perhaps it reacts with water, or sand. It's possible that aluminum is the only safe material here.

“Im fine” Lucy said, sounding surprised. She rubbed her leg where she had fallen.

 

”I have no clue what happened though. One minute it was running the samples fine and the next it started smoking.”

[Mat]

I'm going to the beach with my family soon, and I'll be gone for a few hours, so I thought I'd post some first-impression reads (Most of them gut, as it's D1):

• Gears- Posted a mind game on the benefits of claiming alignment at the start of the game, and assorted comments. Mild village but reserving judgement.
• Ash- Has had some great RP, but hasn't said too much analysis related stuff since disagreeing with Silber on page 1-2. Possibly trying to appear to be contributing to blend in? Very mild elim.
• Pyro- Seems like ordinary Pyro to me. Surprised to have not received a PM from him yet  even if I can't respond. Null, leaning toward village
• Teft- One RP post. Null
• Araris- One post to vote on Ash. One of the most reason-defined votes of the game so far, as most have been pokes. But only one post. Null
• Silber- Theorizes about alignment scanners for no apparent reason. There has been no evidence of any alignment scanners. Weird, but not particularly AI. Null. 
• TJ- After a reexamination of his posts, he seems like normal. Which is to say active, mildly aggressive (but doing better) and acting on minor suspicions- which turns out to be a good thing D1, as most of the actual discussion was generated off him. Mild village.
• Straw- Only a few posts, clarifications. Null
• Mist- Some analysis, more than the majority of the players so far, and seems genuine to me. Mild village.
• Mint- Good RP, another one of the more thought-out votes so far. Null, leaning on mild village.
• Lotus- Similar to Ash in that they haven't really said anything analysis related. @Lotus, any thoughts on the discussion? Very mild elim
• Illwei- Hiding messages in white text, in edits, and overall acting... strange. Though I would say he seems more like LG67, in terms of nervousness. Null, leaning on very mild elim.
• Vapor- Votes on Kas for poke voting? Probably just misunderstands the mechanic. Null. @Vapor any thoughts on the game discussion?
• Kasimir- Like the playstyle, and made a reads chart to contribute. Not sure what to make of the vote on himself, after it was explained in the QF as bait but then done again. Null.
• Sart- RP, but with another decently thought out vote. Very mild village.
• Lahilt- One post, with an unexplained vote on Devotary. Null.
• Devotary- One post, clarification. Interested what she said that Lahilt found suspicious. Null.
• Striker- Has he posted? I don't remember  Null.

So with that, I feel good about putting a tentative vote on Ashbringer, for the reasons given above, at least until he posts more analysis-related stuff.

(@Ashbringer) Reserving further judgment until then.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Gears]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Gears- Posted a mind game on the benefits of claiming alignment at the start of the game, and assorted comments. Mild village but reserving judgement.

Oi! I posted some theories concerning disease, thank you very much. Which one of my theories do you think is true? If disease=death, you will die, so maybe you don't believe that one, but do you think this is a conversion game or standard game, and if it's standard, do you think diseases will function similarly to squiring in LG67 [I understand that you are at the beach right now, but respond when you can].

I believe @The Young Pyromancer must have a disease that prevents them from PMing, lost a bet to someone, or is extremely busy since I have not received a PM from them either. 

[Araris Valerian]

Just popping in to say that I was thinking of moving my vote on Ash to someone with one or more other votes, but seeing as Matrim has followed my vote, I'm going to stick with it, at least for a bit longer. IMO since there's not that much time in the cycle, people should probably switch from mechanic discussion to lynch discussion.

[|TJ|]

13 minutes ago, Gears said:

I believe @The Young Pyromancer must have a disease that prevents them from PMing, lost a bet to someone, or is extremely busy since I have not received a PM from them either. 

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

• Pyro - For thinking Research Intern was a role-claim. And asking if there is a village. And for PMing me willing to "trade information". Anyone else? 

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So, @The Young Pyromancer, there. I'm willing to trade the information, just not with you in PMs, but with the rest of the village as well  You may send information back in return here in thread or as a PM. 

He PMed me. 

[Gears]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

He PMed me. 

Oh. Then I have no idea why Pyro isn't PMing people. That is very strange. 

Other notes: I asked about conversion and got a PAFO. This could mean anything, but I hope it means a no. Otherwise, I don't know why Matrim and TJ are claiming.

[Mat]

44 minutes ago, Gears said:

Oi! I posted some theories concerning disease, thank you very much. Which one of my theories do you think is true? If disease=death, you will die, so maybe you don't believe that one, but do you think this is a conversion game or standard game, and if it's standard, do you think diseases will function similarly to squiring in LG67 [I understand that you are at the beach right now, but respond when you can].

I can see it being a conversion game, but have not seen any evidence for this other than your speculation. It's possible, but impossible to prove before it would be revealed. I think it's more likely to be a mechanic similar to squiring, if at all, though I had just overtly assumed diseases to be personal.

23 minutes ago, Gears said:

Other notes: I asked about conversion and got a PAFO. This could mean anything, but I hope it means a no. Otherwise, I don't know why Matrim and TJ are claiming.

I claimed so the people who PM'd me wouldn't think I was ignoring them and therefore find that suspicious, and I think TJ did the same.  

[---]

So I guess I'll share some of my notes, since I've actually tried to take real notes in this game that aren't hundreds of sticky notes on my computer and desk.

Gears - says some things that aren't really relevant but idk doesn't seem completely evil, just haven't really seen posts like that in my other game with him
Ashbringer - Why do people suspect them? they've seemed to have only posted RPs so far. ooooh
Pyro - I don't like the whole "thinking I claimed" thing but it could just be pyro being pyro idk
Matrim - very slightly mild elim until proven otherwise for reasons I can't quite express.
TJ Shade - I'm going to trust...ish TJ based off of the whole Research intern thing. 
Straw - straw scares me
Frozen Mint - I also trust Mint
Mist - very slightly mild elim until proven otherwise for reasons I can't quite express. 
Illwei - said some unusual things in the beginning but after their latest post I trust them more
Kasimir - I trust 
Lahilt - I have no reasoning to think they're elim...

--

16 minutes ago, Gears said:

Oh. Then I have no idea why Pyro isn't PMing people. That is very strange. 

I mean, there isn't a rule in the Pyro SE handbook that says he must PM all of the people. 

52 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Though I would say he seems more like LG67, in terms of nervousness

I think it's interesting at all that people can read nervousness from LG67 as I think I posted a full 10 times but maybe that's part of it who knows. Well, I guess matrim knows...

[+Lotus]

I feel like I’m noticing a pattern with some of the posts but I’m struggling to put it all together.

[Ashbringer]

I'm pretty sure TGK's just PAFO'ing everything. I have a background, and he PAFO'd if it's supposed to be a RP tool or a hint to something else. Seeing that other people have them makes me think it does have some game impact. So I wouldn't recommend sharing what it your background happens to be.

As for actual analysis, there hasn't been that much analysis so far. And I'm fresh off of two games of completely awful reads, so I'm hesitant to make a read on someone when there's not a lot of game-related conversation to go off of (discounting TJ's rule-bending).

But seeing as I'm tied for the most votes with Kasimir, who's second vote from himself... I should probably try 

My next post will be analysis.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But seeing as I'm tied for the most votes with Kasimir, who's second vote from himself... I should probably try 

Did Mint or TJ remove their vote from me? aren't I still at 2 votes?

Edited August 4, 2020 by Illwei
look a new page

[Straw]

Sorry for not being in the thread as much as usual. I am keeping up with it though, and will try to offer more comments in the future.

Quick question for @Illwei: What's up with all the edits and stuff with your posts? I'm not sure how much you're changing, but I'm positive that you had a post alleging an elim connection between me and TJ. However, I can't find it it at the moment. Could you clarify what's going on? I really don't see how editing all this stuff and leaving edit messages is helpful.

Illwei seems like a good place for my vote for now.

[+Lotus]

12 minutes ago, Straw said:

Quick question for @Illwei: What's up with all the edits and stuff with your posts? I'm not sure how much you're changing, but I'm positive that you had a post alleging an elim connection between me and TJ. However, I can't find it it at the moment. Could you clarify what's going on? I really don't see how editing all this stuff and leaving edit messages is helpful.

 

Yeah. I was trying to find something I saw in one of Illwei’s posts to add to my spreadsheet but it was missing.

 

Edit: Whoops, I was looking in the wrong post.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Lotus

[---]

7 minutes ago, Straw said:

Sorry for not being in the thread as much as usual. I am keeping up with it though, and will try to offer more comments in the future.

Quick question for @Illwei: What's up with all the edits and stuff with your posts? I'm not sure how much you're changing, but I'm positive that you had a post alleging an elim connection between me and TJ. However, I can't find it it at the moment. Could you clarify what's going on? I really don't see how editing all this stuff and leaving edit messages is helpful.

Illwei seems like a good place for my vote for now.

well I guess I'm in the lead now 

I can't remember where that post is but I though I edited that out right after posting it, so I didn't think it would matter, sorry. I had a thought that led to if TJ was elim then I didn't think you were elim, but It's kind of irrelevant to me as I don't have reason to think either of you are elim right now.

 

EDIT:

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

Yeah. I was trying to find something I saw in one of Illwei’s posts to add to my spreadsheet but it was missing.

was it this? because that's the only thing I edited out

Edited August 4, 2020 by Illwei

[+Lotus]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

was it this? because that's the only thing I edited out

No, I’m so sorry, I found it now. I thought it had been in one post but it was in a completely different page. 

[The Young Pyromancer]

So to the person who PMed me, I am not responding because I am attempting to pm less to lower my chances of catching something, even if canonically the diseases give superpowers. I think the whole thing was that they give powers, but they disrupt the thing that makes the cities float? Idk.

Who do you mean when you talk about lying?

Also, to the thread, why are people voting on Illwei?