Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Mat]

34 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Whoa, Kas. I'm at the end of my thinking capacity (half from studying for my exams, half from reading that post). While you certainly make some good points, it's still not enough for me to overlook the Lotus shift in D3. Straw would have discussed and voted for Lotus, testing waters to see if any villager would want to lynch Lotus. Illwei does, and Matrim then follows. The gap between Straw and Matrim's vote convinces me further that he's an elim. Of course, Ash and Matrim could both by elims, but I suspect Matrim more.

I dislike how Straw went after Lotus then, because that prompted me to as well, because they were my top suspicion at that time when the accusations on Devotary didn't have any proof of anything, (Sart's claim was after that) and I thought Lotus was more likely an elim based on the reasoning I saw. That changed when Sart claimed, but I didn't change my read on Lotus- until she exposed Straw. Now I'm annoyed I pushed her so hard, because it's throwing shade on me for following my suspicions... ah well.

@Ashbringer, @Elandera, @Illwei, @Vapor, @Lahilt, @StrikerEZ, I would prefer if you would vote sometime soon (hint: before 5 minutes before the turn ends). I don't like the tie, or the lack of votes at this point, and whether I'm gonna die or not I'd like to know. Don't wanna be hammered, even by other villagers. By which I mean voted on a bunch right at the end.  

 

[---]

Two things I don't like that people do are posting vote counts unprompted and tagging people to vote. both feel to me like someone it trying to be too helpful. 

Maybe I'll vote Ash and make it a three way tie. (If Kas' doesn't choose to switch targets again :P.)

Honestly though I don't really think that Lahilt is Elim...I don't think... I Have been kind of suspicious of both Ash and Matrim since the beginning, but both have majority gut reads I guess.

[Lahilt]

 Reads

 I want to think are village- Kasimir, TJ Shade, Araris (was right about medical/progression) Illwei (Pyro being village made my suspicions dissapear. so I am somewhat neutral on Illwei) Frozen Mint (I want to think that suggesting an alternate lynch on the straw vote was too bold/bad move for an Elim)

Possible Elim- Elandera, StrikerEZ, Vapor, Matrims dice ashbringer

@Ashbringer I understand that you are a collector of information is there any that you could share with us? 

This vote could be changed later

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lahilt
I was literally falling asleep as I tried to type the last words and hit submit.

[Ashbringer]

Well. That's a fun surprise. I'll see if I can respond to a few parts of it.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ash veers off his trust of Devotary and his awareness that Gears' death might be to get a lynch [note that he says mislynch] on Illwei or Lotus and says he wants to vote Lotus. And that happens...really quickly, and Ash conveniently hangs back after Illwei and Mat pile onto Lotus. And this after he put a vote on Straw.

I was more focused on Gears leading to a mislynch on Illwei than one on Lotus. I'd been slightly suspicious from the start from Lotus giving a list of reads with no real judgements, but if Gears was killed for his analysis, the only people who he analyzed were Illwei and somewhat Lotus. I'm more of the mind that Elims kill for having analysis that's too wrong over too right, which made me wonder if Illwei and Lotus were trying to get pushed.

Then Elkanah came out with the corrected vote count, where an additional vote had been Soothed off of Lotus. I found that suspicious, because it meant that someone else had tried to save Lotus, or there'd been a coordinated attempt to and Lotus was bluffing with a role a fellow Elim really had.

Lastly, I get nervous around bandwagons. I couldn't really understand the start of the Devotary lynch (as the initial reason was a Freudian slip of one word), and I just saw a bunch of people voting with no counter. Straw had provided a read, and I decided that I could try and push it to a counter-lynch. When I saw Illwei and Matrim had beat me to it, I thought that was also too quick of a lynch for my tastes. If Sart hadn't revealed, I probably would have gone back to pushing people for reads.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Anyone who is interested is free to ISO Ash. I note that D2 he mentions not changing his vote because he doesn't have enough to place a reasoned vote. It's not necessarily an Elim thing, but it's another thing that builds into a player that is being especially, very careful and almost hedging in a way that ends up in a position that shifts very quickly but never strays into anything potentially dangerous, preferring to let others tank the heat for actions Ash claims he supports.

To this I say... One, I'm not sure what ISO is. Two, at the end of D2 I'd just gotten back from a golf trip and was more looking forward to drinking a gallon of water than trying to analyze a lynch. And Three (for the italiced part)... that's sort of how I play. I hedge quite a bit, and avoid saying any strong opinions, because I'm quite bad at doing any reads based on the thread and without any votes/read lists/actions to go off of. I don't try and completely shift a read based on nothing, but I will strongly examine them if new information comes in that could influence, which is what happened to my read on Lotus. And I'd much rather have someone I'm not sure of their alignment "tank the heat" instead of the one person I've successfully confirmed their alignment - myself.

I can summarize my playstyle a bit more if you want, but I'd rather keep it to myself.

And, now that I've typed enough information to be ninja'd:

26 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

 Reads

 I want to think are village- Kasimir, TJ Shade, Araris (was right about medical/progression) Illwei (Pyro being village made my suspicions dissapear. so I am somewhat neutral on Illwei) Frozen Mint (I want to think that suggesting an alternate lynch on the straw vote was too bold/bad move for an Elim)

Possible Elim- Elandera, StrikerEZ, Vapor, Matrims diceashbringer

@Ashbringer I understand that you are a collector of information is there any that you could share with us? 

This vote could changd

As much as I don't like having votes that "could change", seeing as it's on me I'll make an exception.

Unfortunately, I don't have much new information. Or, rather, my information is nothing. If pressed I can certainly clarify my cryptic-ness (cryptocracy?) of last cycle, but I've said enough that a few should figure it out. There's an additional piece I can share, but I need to check a few things first.

"Collector of information" is a bit strong, as I don't have much information from any sources that aren't my own actions or the thread. 

 

Lastly, I accept Kas' point on Lahilt probably being Village. That leaves Illwei, Araris, Matrim, and Mint.

Well, time to be a bit bold and ignore self-preservation. Frozen Mint, you don't want to claim a role in thread. Depending on the role, I can understand that. But now you've offered a bit of information about Vapor, someone who's been barely suspected, and it concerns vote manip, which is very dangerous in Elim hands, after telling me you had no outside information about Straw and didn't wish to answer questions. The Elims have let several players with vote-manip abilities live, so why don't you want to share information if your role isn't as big of a threat?

Edit: @Frozen Mint

Edited August 17, 2020 by Ashbringer
tag

[Frozen Mint]

I'm pretty suspicious that we're gonna get a hammer, but current vote count:

Matrim (2): TJ Shade, Mint

Lahilt (2): Matrim, Araris

Ashbringer (2): Kas, Lahilt

Mint (1): Ash

 

I... didn't realize we had a three way tie. Feel free to double check my counts, I'm notorious for getting them wrong, but I checked this one a bunch of times.

 

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Lastly, I accept Kas' point on Lahilt probably being Village. That leaves Illwei, Araris, Matrim, and Mint.

Well, time to be a bit bold and ignore self-preservation. Frozen Mint, you don't want to claim a role in thread. Depending on the role, I can understand that. But now you've offered a bit of information about Vapor, someone who's been barely suspected, and it concerns vote manip, which is very dangerous in Elim hands, after telling me you had no outside information about Straw and didn't wish to answer questions. The Elims have let several players with vote-manip abilities live, so why don't you want to share information if your role isn't as big of a threat?

I've barely offered any information on Vapor. I just said that one vote disappearance didn't have to do with Vapor. I'm not sure how that's dangerous information for the elims to have. I'm also unsure as to how it connects with my motives for not voting on Straw, which had nothing to do with my role or any information I had.

This seems like a fair enough amount of evidence to vote on someone if it was D2, but given the amount of reasoning we currently have behind other elim suspects, I'm surprised that you're voting on me based on this. It makes me feel more suspicious of you, but I wonder if that's just me being biased because you're voting on me. I'll have to keep an eye on it.

[---]

@Ashbringer what did you see that's made you go after mint so much recently?

[Araris Valerian]

12 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm pretty suspicious that we're gonna get a hammer, but current vote count:

Could you elaborate? Why would the elims hammer at this point? (assuming that villagers don't)

[Ashbringer]

24 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I... didn't realize we had a three way tie. Feel free to double check my counts, I'm notorious for getting them wrong, but I checked this one a bunch of times.

 

I've barely offered any information on Vapor. I just said that one vote disappearance didn't have to do with Vapor. I'm not sure how that's dangerous information for the elims to have. I'm also unsure as to how it connects with my motives for not voting on Straw, which had nothing to do with my role or any information I had.

This seems like a fair enough amount of evidence to vote on someone if it was D2, but given the amount of reasoning we currently have behind other elim suspects, I'm surprised that you're voting on me based on this. It makes me feel more suspicious of you, but I wonder if that's just me being biased because you're voting on me. I'll have to keep an eye on it.

I’ll move to Matrim if this leads nowhere.

It’s not the information that’s dangerous to Elims. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. If we know who’s been manipulating votes, we can more easily stop Elims from manipulating a lynch, because vote manip allows Elims to make us mislynch and essentially wait a cycle. Vote manip is really only dangerous in Elim hands, and nowhere near as dangerous in Village hands. So if you are a Village vote manipulator, I don’t know why you’re so hesitant to say anything.

And I do have more information than I’ve been letting on, particularly on Mint. The moment I reveal that information, however, it becomes easily countered as it’s nowhere as condemning as Lotus’s or Sart’s. Which is why it’s almost useless, and why I’m trying to get a little use out of it. And while it is slightly hypocritical of me as I haven’t claimed a role in-thread, I’ve been soft-claiming scanner for a while now, and there’s a few who know specifics.

And, it’s an open lynch so far. Matrim will in all likelyhood be the final target, but there’s still three and a half hours for that to change, so I’m not going to deflect this.

So, is there a reason you don’t want to claim a role, or can you offer some information about it?

[Frozen Mint]

40 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Could you elaborate? Why would the elims hammer at this point? (assuming that villagers don't)

Not necessarily an elim hammer. It's just that we have a tie and things have been pretty quiet since yesterday. One could almost say it's too quiet. 

16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’ll move to Matrim if this leads nowhere.

It’s not the information that’s dangerous to Elims. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. If we know who’s been manipulating votes, we can more easily stop Elims from manipulating a lynch, because vote manip allows Elims to make us mislynch and essentially wait a cycle. Vote manip is really only dangerous in Elim hands, and nowhere near as dangerous in Village hands. So if you are a Village vote manipulator, I don’t know why you’re so hesitant to say anything.

And I do have more information than I’ve been letting on, particularly on Mint. The moment I reveal that information, however, it becomes easily countered as it’s nowhere as condemning as Lotus’s or Sart’s. Which is why it’s almost useless, and why I’m trying to get a little use out of it. And while it is slightly hypocritical of me as I haven’t claimed a role in-thread, I’ve been soft-claiming scanner for a while now, and there’s a few who know specifics.

And, it’s an open lynch so far. Matrim will in all likelyhood be the final target, but there’s still three and a half hours for that to change, so I’m not going to deflect this.

So, is there a reason you don’t want to claim a role, or can you offer some information about it?

I'm very curious about what information you have on me because I can't think of what I've done that would incriminate me as an elim.  But I'm sure I'll find out. The thing is, minus whatever that is, all of this sounds like extreme conjecture. There could be so many ways I could know that "Vapor vanish" is a myth. Why would you assume I'm a village vote manipulator? And if I am a village vote manipulator, why would it be suspicious to not share that with the thread? I disagree that a vote manipulator not sharing their role with the thread makes them more likely to be an elim.

I'll be honest Ash, this feels a lot like trying to pull information out of me that the elims can use, though the fact that you've stated you have information on me makes that less likely. I won't be sharing anymore information, regardless of the pressure I receive.

[Ashbringer]

22 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm very curious about what information you have on me because I can't think of what I've done that would incriminate me as an elim.  But I'm sure I'll find out. The thing is, minus whatever that is, all of this sounds like extreme conjecture. There could be so many ways I could know that "Vapor vanish" is a myth. Why would you assume I'm a village vote manipulator? And if I am a village vote manipulator, why would it be suspicious to not share that with the thread? I disagree that a vote manipulator not sharing their role with the thread makes them more likely to be an elim.

I'll be honest Ash, this feels a lot like trying to pull information out of me that the elims can use, though the fact that you've stated you have information on me makes that less likely. I won't be sharing anymore information, regardless of the pressure I receive.

...

It’s not incriminating. I would have pushed this sooner if it was. But I can’t understand why it would occur if you truly are a Villager and I understand this game correctly, and you just try and deflect my questions back at me.

Maybe any information you have will help the Elims. But at this point in the game I’m wary of a player who isn’t contributing much of anything.

[Vapor]

Well. I had church and stuff Sunday, and Mist had XC for a while and then I ate and now I'm on, and school was chaotic. Um... 

4 hours ago, Lahilt said:

 Reads

 I want to think are village- Kasimir, TJ Shade, Araris (was right about medical/progression) Illwei (Pyro being village made my suspicions dissapear. so I am somewhat neutral on Illwei) Frozen Mint (I want to think that suggesting an alternate lynch on the straw vote was too bold/bad move for an Elim)

Possible Elim- Elandera, StrikerEZ, Vapor, Matrims dice ashbringer

@Ashbringer I understand that you are a collector of information is there any that you could share with us? 

This vote could be changed later

Could you give reasons for these?

[---]

I don't know who to vote on honestly. I would rather kill Matrim and Lahilt than Ashbringer, because of this "information" ?? (unless this is some ploy to keep himself alive :P.)

I kinda want to kill Lahilt more than Matrim, but things and the voters make me think that Matrim is more likely an Elim  - Though I honestly feel like no matter who we lynch this cycle we're not going to hit an elim because we can't possibly be that lucky. so... Matrim... I guess...

 

P.S. is elim supposed to be capitalized? is it like...a title? or no? or sometimes?

Edited August 18, 2020 by Illwei
Definitely panicked that I posted this on the wrong game for a moment

[Ashbringer]

In interest of not dying to vote manip, Matrim.

Elim doesn’t need to be capitalized, but it’s generally what people will do. It helps draw Attention to the word in a sentence or paragraph.

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Lastly, I accept Kas' point on Lahilt probably being Village. That leaves Illwei, Araris, Matrim, and Mint.

Edit: @Frozen Mint

Hard to edit on mobile so I may have borked something. I actually found you more aggressive or less hedgy in QF46, which is why your subsequent play this has stood out to me. To be fair, you died D2 there. I do accept that you might have happened to have been a Villager who pitched Straw the ball he needed. However, I also think it was worth putting pressure on more than just the MatWeiRis triad in discussion. If not you, then to see where Elims vote, what trains they jump on, and what else they do. 

Not sure why you ascribe to me the view that Lahilt is likely Village though. I don't think there's enough info to tell, because there was no reason for the Elim team to crap bricks over his potentially being tied. Ultimately I'm not especially invested in Mat over Lahilt or vice bersa: as long as one of my late tier suspects gets lynched. 

And:

Ash. Lahilt.

Bottom line with my late response to Lahilt's earlier comments: I think it's a IKYK thing, so I'm interested in hearing what the others think. 

[Lahilt]

At this point I will change my vote to Matrims dice as an effort of self preservation.  ashbringer

2 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Well. I had church and stuff Sunday, and Mist had XC for a while and then I ate and now I'm on, and school was chaotic. Um... 

Could you give reasons for these?

Yes, most of the Elim reads are people who have not done anything\enough to make me think they are village. Also this is subject to change as I expect that it probably wrong on some points.  

 

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

 I would rather kill Matrim and Lahilt 

I kinda want to kill Lahilt more than Matrim,

Hmm. Feel the love! 

[Mat]

Man I wish there was something I could do. Nope. I have a history background- yes, @Kasimir, another one, which doesn't have any helpful action for me. And I can't even vote in self preservation, since that's where I am atm.

Matrim’s Dice (5): TJ Shade, Frozen Mint, Illwei, Ashbringer, Lahilt 

Lahilt (3): Matrim’s Dice, Araris Valerian, Kasimir

@Elandera, @StrikerEZ, @Vapor, do you take pity on this villager? I ask for your support in these final moments.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

@Matrim's Dice Who did you scan last night / previous cycles /Days? 

[---]

9 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Hmm. Feel the love! 

:). 

welp, looks like everyone switched off of Ash so if I....Matrim...and then...Lahilt...
....

Edited August 18, 2020 by Illwei
Ash I *really* want to know your secrets

[Vapor]

Um... I vote Lahilt because I'm tired and don't really want to deal with this. Matrim, your plea has moved me beyond belief. You are freed.

[---]

Oh. well, that messed things up...er...

Lahilt...

...

I never intended to make this many vote posts...

Edited August 18, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

I’ll move to Lahilt if @Matrim's Dice posts scan results. I’d much rather have a solid lynch than one that can be swung by Vote Manip.

[Kasimir]

Players this cycle apparently:

Spoiler

 

[Lahilt]

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Oh. well, that messed things up...er...

Lahilt...

...

Thank you,

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’ll move to Lahilt if @Matrim's Dice posts scan results. I’d much rather have a solid lynch than one that can be swung by Vote Manip.

We do have vote scanners. messing with the vote will bring fire and fury.

Trial by Ordeal, let the innocent survive and the guilty die... fate will judge them.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lahilt
I am having fun watching my potential end arrive.

[---]

@Ashbringer I thought Matrim said he didn't get the scan ability from his background. Matrim? Also any lynch could be swung by vote manips because...well we don't even know who has vote manip left...but-

Lahilt do not thank me for that lol.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Players this cycle apparently:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

TELL ME ABOUT IT

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’ll move to Lahilt if @Matrim's Dice posts scan results. I’d much rather have a solid lynch than one that can be swung by Vote Manip.

@Illwei scan is from bg.

Scan results: I have scanned Pyro, Sart, and Lotus, in that order. I got the ability D2. The first two took no actions, and I targeted them before any claims/they did anything, and Lotus targeted Straw, which we already knew. Unfortunately, this doesn't prove much, but I hope it's something.

Last post of the cycle, possible the game (for me). Cya, I hope not...

Edited August 18, 2020 by Matrim's Dice