Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I forgot a point. I felt there's something odd about his D1 vote on Devotary. Just a bad feeling that it was not a genuine vote, but an initial distancing effort (note that he did not change his vote). Full Post for reference:

It's not exactly indicative, but I feel something off about it. Too off-the-bat.

About the D2 lynch, his timing of the vote on Pyro is what I always relate as elim timing. Pyro had 2 votes on him (Kas, Gears) and 2 others had 1 votes on them (Gears, Mint). Felt like this vote was to solidify the mislynch.

Fair enough, and good catches. As I said, whether or not Ash's bluff was really a bluff, I think the reasoning that it identifies those willing to switch votes - or looking for a reason to switch votes - is fairly decent. Lahilt immediately stands out as being in that group. He also shows up in the peripheral profile and the late bandwagoners group for both lynches, which could be a sign of an Eliminator taking the lynch temperature before reluctantly joining in. 

What I'm most suspicious of, however, is Lahilt suddenly appearing late in D4 to vote Straw:

On 8/13/2020 at 7:20 AM, Lahilt said:

 straw appears to be a good option. 

Araris: very suspicious, also I consider the power to heal a very dangerous role for an Elim as they could remove a lot of village vote manipulation giving the Elims a huge advantage.

 

All of a sudden, when the thread begins to consider Araris suspicious, and after complaints that he's not been contributing or identified suspicions, Lahilt finds Araris...very suspicious. And "the power to heal is dangerous for an Elim" (paraphrased) - but that statement is just odd in so many ways. It's dangerous for an Elim, but what does that have to do with Araris being an Elim? Is it supposed to raise the chances of Araris being an Elim? Is it supposed to imply we should lynch Araris on the off-chance he's an Elim as the power is too dangerous for a potential Elim?

On the other hand, removing a lot of village vote manipulation. Why would that give Elims a huge advantage? Village vote manipulation is not inherently beneficial to the Village because it tends to provide Elim vote manipulation a lot of smokescreen to operate in. This is precisely why I've emphasised transparency/accountability when I had Cohesion. Now, it's true that vote manip grants us more lynch firepower, but again - that's not exactly the same as saying that without vote manipulation, the Elims automatically have a huge advantage over us. You know what could be very dangerous for an Elim? Role-blocking. A secondary kill. Etcetera.

IDK. I read this as opportunistic bandwagoning, which granted, could be sheeping (see: Vapor in QF46) but coupled with the points you make, just doesn't sit well with me. And unlike Vapor, Lahilt doesn't have a history of sheeping - at least not from my MR43 memories. As I said last night, Illwei, Matrim, and Lahilt are my top-tier suspects, with Matrim being the strongest of them. Araris and Mint are on the lower suspicion tier, and I'll admit part of the reason I'm more bearish on my Araris read now is due to issues with making sense of his D2 Illwei-Mint reasoning, and especially Lahilt's sudden move into the ranks of those suspicious of Araris.

[Lahilt]

Day 1 my vote on Devotary was mostly just a gut read, the only problem was that all my other day 1 reads in previous games have been very wrong so I was very unsure of this one.

Day 2 vote on Pyro I was suspicious of Illwei, I read a few of the interactions between Pyro and Illwei as Elim/Elim also I thought Pyro not wanting to get a disease was an excuse. So I was tunneling a bit on that one.

Day 3 by the I got on the thread the vote on Devotary was well established and I just added my vote

Day 4 the Straw vote again was well established by the time I got on the thread. When Ash claimed to have info I thought that it probably had to do with a PM between them and Kas. Because Kas said they could change their vote but that we would need to change a 5 vote margin I responded that if the info was reasonable and Kas approved of it I would change my vote, all the while assuming it was related to a pm between Ash and Kas. Now if I was an Elim backing this plan would be very stupid as if Ash would have Info on one of the better hidden Elims. I would be forced to change my vote on that player or be suspicious. As an Elim I would assume Ash had good Info. unless Ash was also an Elim or I would know it is Info incriminating a villager it would have been a bad plan for an ElimLahilt to back. 

[Mat]

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

The above given reasons would not convince me that Matrim's Dice is a villager at all. 

 

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Matrim's Dice. The conclusion of my thoughts from last Night, and agreed with TJ's reasoning on Straw's reads. 

Sigh. There probably isn't going to be anything to convince you two. I just hope everyone else sees through this. The sad thing is, I believe both of your villagerness is genuine, so some of the remaining elims will just casually hop on this one, I'm sure. Enough to guarantee my demise.

Kinda funny I'm gonna be mislynched again, after a 4 game streak of getting NK'd, apparently something changed and now I'm found suspicious. I still can see no reasonable difference in my playstyle, so I'm just left confused.

I'll stick a vote on Lahilt, half because I agree with the above reasoning, half in the hope of self preservation, and then also that he fits the peripheral elim profile- which I point out that I most certainly do not.  

I've already stated my suspicions many, many times. If/when I die, please consider them.

Edited August 16, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

#1. Here's the vote scan from the D4 Straw vote:

Quote

Straw (11) - Ashbringer, Matrim, Araris, TJ Shade, Lotus, Vapor, Kasimir, Lahilt, StrikerEZ, Illwei, [X]

Double-Voter #3 accounts for our extra vote. I've censored their name to keep from outing them unnecessarily. What's more interesting is that Vapor is listed among the voters. What happened to the Vapor Vanish?

#2. 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 

Sigh. There probably isn't going to be anything to convince you two. I just hope everyone else sees through this. The sad thing is, I believe both of your villagerness is genuine, so some of the remaining elims will just casually hop on this one, I'm sure. Enough to guarantee my demise.

Kinda funny I'm gonna be mislynched again, after a 4 game streak of getting NK'd, apparently something changed and now I'm found suspicious. I still can see no reasonable difference in my playstyle, so I'm just left confused.

I'll stick a vote on Lahilt, half because I agree with the above reasoning, half in the hope of self preservation, and then also that he fits the peripheral elim profile- which I point out that I most certainly do not.  

I've already stated my suspicions many, many times. If/when I die, please consider them.

Dude. I'll be honest and say this: first, I'm sorry if you really are a Villager. That's just where my suspicions are currently situated.

Second, I also have to say that you sound like you think you are really backed into a corner right now. I'm leaning Elim on the amount of defensiveness I'm picking up on, but I could also see that being a frustrated Villager. I can't speak for TJ, but this entire game is literally a study in how I'm not unpersuadable. I specifically went from an 'Araris delenda est' position on D4 to "Yeah, no, I think he's fishy but I also think Araris might be set up" on N4.  

It would be strange for Elims suddenly hop on this, as you claim they will. If you are in fact a Villager, anyone sheeping onto you will be scrutinised, especially in light of their in-game behaviour. 

Anyway. Matrim for now. Illwei.

[Elandera]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 I like how y'all taking up that one thread from a suspect TJ and I share now  But heck - I'm paranoid that I'm still alive: paranoid it means my suspicions are all completely off base  

I mean, I basically have no reason to be suspicious of you outside of crazy paranoia. If you are an elim, hats off to you, good sir, for the best bus ever. I just don't think that situation called for a bus without totally ruining the game for Devotary.

The more I think about it, the fact Illwei brought it up is a bit sus.

[|TJ|]

I am very easily persuadable (unless I'm tunneling ). All you have to do is send me on a guilt-trip, which is what Mat seems to have done. And I begin to think and rethink my reads. But, no. I've gone through my reasoning, went through the votes again, and I have sufficient belief that Mat is more of a suspect than a villager, and more of a suspect than any other player. Whether you're doing this  or not.  

[Kasimir]

Right, I missed a point. Without D3 Devotary lynch data, the best I can make of the Vanishing Vapor Vanish, based off what Thug #1 said, might be because of Progression flying around.

As far as I can tell, if we assume Vapor Vanish was still functioning, this vote tally is not accurate. No Cohesion-user double-voted at all. Which means we should expect 13 votes but are seeing 12 instead:

GM Write-Up Votes from D3:

Quote

Devotary (12): Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrim, TJ Shade, Straw, Frozen Mint, Lotus, Illwei, Vapor, Kasimir, Sart, Lahilt, StrikerEZ

The best explanation, IMO, is that the Vapor Vanish was removed. (Alternative explanation: Thug #1 was healed and said nothing. But I don't like this explanation because it requires us to postulate a double heal when the next Day...)

Vote Scan from D4:

Quote

Straw (11):  Ashbringer, Matrim, Araris, TJ Shade, Lotus, Vapor, Kasimir, Lahilt, StrikerEZ, Illwei, [X]

We have exactly 11 votes listed on Straw. It can't be another double-voter, I'd have seen them otherwise. It's either Vapor was healed, or there was some kind of vote manip able to make Vapor's vote count, but that's an OOA question again ( @Elkanah and @The_God_King, I assume it's a PAFO as to whether an Abrasion or Tension user could make a nullified vote count as a vote?) - not to mention we then have to account for what happened to the Abrasion/Tension vote, which brings us back into further confusion and the virtual particle problem. 

No. I think the simplest answer is that someone healed Vapor N2. (Or D3, I suppose, depending on OOA.) @Araris Valerian, was this you? [@GMs: If a Progression user heals Cohesion during the Day, for instance, does the double vote still appear on the lynch, assuming the player with Cohesion had used it?]

[Araris Valerian]

The only heals I've submitted are TJ, Kas, and then Lahilt last night (all actions have been submitted during the night turn). I think that village!Lahilt would be more likely to tell the thread that he had been healed rather than elim!Lahilt, so that makes me a bit more suspicious of him. While I still think Matrim is likely elim, I think I'll go with Lahilt for now (although voting alongside Matrim makes me slightly uncomfortable). I agree with Kas that a sudden suspicion on me is suspicious, because anyone looking at general suspicions during D3 and D4 probably would have guessed that I'd be up for the lynch next. Easy place for an elim to hide their vote.

[Frozen Mint]

Sticking with the reasoning I provided last cycle, Matrim.

44 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I mean, I basically have no reason to be suspicious of you outside of crazy paranoia. If you are an elim, hats off to you, good sir, for the best bus ever. I just don't think that situation called for a bus without totally ruining the game for Devotary.

The more I think about it, the fact Illwei brought it up is a bit sus.

Given this post, if either you or Matrim turn out to be elim, I'll be more suspicious of the other. It's interesting that you vote on the alternative to Matrim as soon a vote on another player presents itself (not counting Matrim's vote on Lahilt here because if both Matrim and Elandera are elims, I feel like Elandera wouldn't follow Matrim's vote for the sake of distancing).

Given how there was no pushback to the Straw lynch, I think it's likely that the elims simply decided to bus Straw, so at least one of the early Straw votes is probably from the elim team. Note that doesn't end up meaning much in terms of my suspicions, they basically remain the same.  Illwei was a very early voter and I still don't trust him. Araris also voted relatively early, time-wise, and I'm still suspicious of him as well.

I haven't been particularly suspicious of Lahilt. I'll have to go back and look at his posts.

[---]

Just now, Elandera said:

The more I think about it, the fact Illwei brought it up is a bit sus.

*sigh* Okay, I mean, that's a good point, I guess...
I mean, I don't really suspect Kas - that post wasn't meant to try and cast suspicion on him something I'm not sure I could do even if I tried. :P.

Um Idk I don't really have any defenses?- While looking back through old Straw posts I noticed that Straw voted on me D1 and put me in the lead, but that could be written off as he knew I had a double vote and could save myself. er- Idk that's it. 

I was going to wait and see if anyone else hopped on my lynch, because the way in which Elandera did it felt kinda weird to me- especially because they didn't vote on straw even though Lotus saw Straw visit Sart, and here they vote on me for...saying I would have killed Kas first? 

I was slightly suspicious of Lahilt and Matrim (I guess our top two) in the beginning, but I'm not sure if it's enough to vote on either of them yet. 

[Elandera]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Um Idk I don't really have any defenses?- While looking back through old Straw posts I noticed that Straw voted on me D1 and put me in the lead, but that could be written off as he knew I had a double vote and could save myself. er- Idk that's it. 

Oh, you make a good. Illwei

If Straw did put you into the lead on votes, that's not likely teammate distancing. I should go back and confirm that, but don't have the energy to do so, so I'll trust you.

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I was going to wait and see if anyone else hopped on my lynch, because the way in which Elandera did it felt kinda weird to me- especially because they didn't vote on straw even though Lotus saw Straw visit Sart, and here they vote on me for...saying I would have killed Kas first?

It's the way you said it. It was phrased like you were trying to cast doubt on Kas's villageryness. It's a tactic used by some elims to avoid killing the obvious target, and then make people wonder why.

As for why I didn't vote on Straw, I didn't see much of a point in it. By the time I got the answers I was looking for (in regards to what type of scan, Straw's response to what action he took, etc.) so many people had already voted. Manipulation to keep Straw alive would have been impossible, so placing my vote would be pointless. This case is different. There are a few options, a few candidates, and my vote and opinion might actually matter.

[|TJ|]

We have an elim Healer in our midst (who is not Araris). Probably Healed Vapor. DEFINITELY Healed Lotus D4. Any villager would be cautious when taking away the powers for a possible villager. Lotus' Target Scanner claim in D4 should have made any village Healer think more than twice before Healing Lotus. So, yeah, I believe we have an elim Progression, who is not Araris, among us.

[Kasimir]

15 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

We have an elim Healer in our midst (who is not Araris). Probably Healed Vapor. DEFINITELY Healed Lotus D4. Any villager would be cautious when taking away the powers for a possible villager. Lotus' Target Scanner claim in D4 should have made any village Healer think more than twice before Healing Lotus. So, yeah, I believe we have an elim Progression, who is not Araris, among us.

Where does Lotus being healed come from? [Edited to add: Lotus is noted as having Tension in the write-up. That seems to me to indicate she did not get healed.]

Edit: @Vapor d'oh sorry I forgot to follow and missed your post. All clear then: you definitely got healed C2, latest D3. [Edited to add: Thank you!  ]

Edited August 16, 2020 by Kasimir

[---]

24 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

DEFINITELY Healed Lotus D4

Lotus died still with Tension? also the target scanning thing was a background claim and your backgrounds can't be healed (unless somehow that's what Medical does? that would be kinda scary....and make no sense...) I mean we have at least three progression people (excluding araris because it was claimed that they were healed) and one of them didn't claim...so...

But TJ honestly the more you talk the more I rethink my village read of you. :P.

EDIT: er, can someone tell me what they are seeing with Vapor being wiped? where can I find this? because I just looked through days 3 and 4 and didn't see anything?

Edited August 16, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

I'm going to just put this here.

Straw:

Spoiler

On 8/9/2020 at 4:32 PM, Straw said:

Reads at the moment:

Village:

TJ Shade - Strongest village read, can't see anything very suspicious. Generally helpful.

Kasimir - Quote gimmick makes it more difficult to read their earlier posts. Seems to legitimately have village interests in mind with information openness. Has apparently been PMing. Not sure if I like that. I would prefer to have more openness in the thread.

Matrim's Dice - Has regularly put out analysis that seems to be coming from a good mindset. Specifically hasn't been holding back on giving reads, which I like. They get additional points from me due to their willingness to claim.

Null:

Ashbringer - Lots of posts, very little I feel strongly about. Suspicions are very similar to mine, which is interesting. Gut village read, possibly due to the previous point.

Devotary of Spontaneity - Very few analyzable posts. Not sure what's going on with them/Kas. Will have to reread.

Frozen Mint - Very few analyzable posts.

Teft/Elandera - No analyzable posts.

Vapor - Very few analyzable posts.

Sart - Not very many posts. Village points for vote encouragement, elim points for lack of interaction and jumping on Mint with reasoning I dislike.

Lahilt - Very few analyzable posts. Still getting an off feel from them. I think their vote on Pyro was odd.

Elim:

StrikerEZ - As Matrim said, Striker gives me QF46 vibes in this game (lurking at edges). Otherwise, my read of him is just gut. Probably my weakest elim read.

Araris Valerian - He's objected to Illwei suspicion in ways that I find quite odd (claimed votes on Illwei due to meta, said Illwei vote worse than rand, specifically picked out Illwei from Matrim's reads on D1). Interestingly, voted on Mint due to Illwei connection. Generally odd amount of Illwei connection.

Illwei - I still think his posts are odd, and he has a kind of nervous energy around him that I very much dislike. I find their D2 reads particularly odd, as they listed no elim reads whatsoever.

Lotus (voted for) - Initially completely null reads. Not sure if deliberate null-ness or if they were legitimately feeling that. Lots of filler posts. Ash-Mat-TJ is something of a jump. The more I look through their posts, the more I feel like the filler is deliberate. Vote manipulation is strange as well.

Unfortunately Devotary never actually posted a full analysis spreadsheet, so I can't compare them (unless someone smarter than me can find it). Straw also would likely not read all his fellow Elims in the Village category, but it's worth looking at his reads.

Elim: Lotus, Illwei, Araris, Striker. Lotus is dead and confirmed Village. Striker joined the Devotary wagon early, so I'll read him Village. That leaves Illwei and Araris, who were suspected by most and still are. 

Village: Kasimir, TJ Shade, Matrim. Kas is the paragon of Village (or a really well hidden sleeper agent), TJ generally trusted, Matrim less so. Nothing really changes here.

Null: Sart, Devotary, Lahilt, Vapor, Elandera, Mint, and Ash. Sart is dead and confirmed Village; Devotary, confirmed Elim. So I suspect that there's another Elim hiding in the pool of Vapor, Mint, Lahilt, and Elandera, whom I'll discount for now for adjusting. (I suppose that Ash guy could be an Elim as well, but for some reason I doubt it.)

 

Lahilt: hasn't posted much as always, but in addition to Straw's read and the Pyro vote, he voted on Devotary D1 on a "random gut read". However, he never seemed to follow up on it, nor retract it. Could be a distancing tactic.

Frozen Mint: late to join the Devotary lynch, and responded to my questions last cycle of why she made a counter-vote against the Straw bandwagon without much in the way of information. She also "discouraged" me from asking such questions and Vapor from posting the vote manip information Kasimir specifically requested and Vapor agreed to get. There's a few other bits of information that make me suspicious of Mint, but they don't really amount to anything.

Vapor: Vapor has the ability to read vote manip, like Kas. I'd find that a strange ability to give to an Elim, but theoretically a useful one to root out Village vote manipers. Like Lahilt has been rather quiet, but nothing stands out as suspicious.

I'm probably most suspicious of Lahilt, then Mint. I'd be fine lynching either of these in addition to the Matrim/Illwei/Araris group, but I'm beginning to wonder about a few of my suspicions.

 

I've been typing this up for a while now, so I'll just post it. I'll see if I can do a more up-to-date post with some more reads and a vote.

[Kasimir]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Lotus died still with Tension? also the target scanning thing was a background claim and your backgrounds can't be healed (unless somehow that's what Medical does? that would be kinda scary....and make no sense...) I mean we have at least three progression people (excluding araris because it was claimed that they were healed) and one of them didn't claim...so...

But TJ honestly the more you talk the more I rethink my village read of you. :P.

EDIT: er, can someone tell me what they are seeing with Vapor being wiped? where can I find this? because I just looked through days 3 and 4 and didn't see anything?

It's a theory. Basically, remember D1/D2? Votes Vapor was on had one vote missing. The commonality was Vapor. At first, the theory was that it was some kind of vote manipulation, but the fact was that it seemed to reliably track Vapor, and if we postulate Vapor had some kind of vote manip instead and was using it, then where did the extra/moved vote go? Then after that, someone told me that there actually is an condition-ability that means your vote doesn't count. (I...don't know if there is a counterbalance as PMs shut down soon after.) That person could be lying, of course.

The theory now is that this is what happened to Vapor D1/D2. But if you look at Vapor's D3 scan and my D4 scan, her vote is very much present. So my suspicion is that someone healed Vapor C2/D3, depending on OOA.

[Lahilt]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

The only heals I've submitted are TJ, Kas, and then Lahilt last night (all actions have been submitted during the night turn). I think that village!Lahilt would be more likely to tell the thread that he had been healed rather than elim!Lahilt, so that makes me a bit more suspicious of him. While I still think Matrim is likely elim, I think I'll go with Lahilt for now (although voting alongside Matrim makes me slightly uncomfortable). I agree with Kas that a sudden suspicion on me is suspicious, because anyone looking at general suspicions during D3 and D4 probably would have guessed that I'd be up for the lynch next. Easy place for an elim to hide their vote.

I was healed last cycle. I had Tension although I never used it. This supports your claim of medical background being the same as progression.

[---]

3 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

I was healed last cycle. I had Tension although I never used it. This supports your claim of medical background being the same as progression.

I mean that kinda verifies Araris's Medical claim, but it doesn't clear you?

EDIT: also about vapor: Oh, okay. I just don't know why Vapor wouldn't say anything if she was cleaned. but okay I understand the Idea I guess.

I mean there was also tension who could remove votes but I guess unless the remover's vote got randomly assigned back to where it started, then- ?

Edited August 16, 2020 by Illwei

[Frozen Mint]

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's a theory. Basically, remember D1/D2? Votes Vapor was on had one vote missing. The commonality was Vapor. At first, the theory was that it was some kind of vote manipulation, but the fact was that it seemed to reliably track Vapor, and if we postulate Vapor had some kind of vote manip instead and was using it, then where did the extra/moved vote go? Then after that, someone told me that there actually is an condition-ability that means your vote doesn't count.

So I can confirm that for at least one of the "Vapor vanish" lynches, Vapor had nothing to do with the vote count change. Not going to say much more in thread.

[---]

4 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

So I can confirm that for at least one of the "Vapor vanish" lynches, Vapor had nothing to do with the vote count change. Not going to say much more in thread.

So this isn't me telling you to say more, but I do want to say that there isn't really anywhere else for you to say anything besides in thread.

[|TJ|]

Hold on. I keep getting confused which one of Illwei and Lotus got healed during D4. Should've checked again before posting. Sorry about that. 

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

So I can confirm that for at least one of the "Vapor vanish" lynches, Vapor had nothing to do with the vote count change. Not going to say much more in thread.

Then that's interesting, because since pretty much everyone has been clocked as having their vote count at least once, we have exactly one player who claims to have a condition-ability that prevents them from voting. Not that this is itself alignment indicative, since we've also only seen Mist's kill ability appear exactly once.

[Ashbringer]

Spoiler

 

[Kasimir]

If Mint is telling the truth, then the implication seems to be that Mint was involved in the D1 vanishing vote, since she wasn't around for D2. (But then we're back to the problem of trying to postulate either a new Surge that affects votes or trying to figure out what happened to the effects of Abrasion and Tension.)

But I also have a D2 scan that specifically shows Vapor's vote vanishing on D2 alongside Illwei's. We know Lotus Soothed Illwei with Tension and her vote happened to smack back in place. But then we also have Devotary's vote: one possibility is Vapor using Abrasion to move Devotary's vote onto Pyro. Or: again, I've been PAFOed on this, but Dev using Abrasion on herself or some more complex but V-E manip interaction.

Here's the thing though. We've theorised that the manip was Elim previously but I am actually not sure anymore. Since we now know Pyro and Lotus are both Village, it's worth revisiting the possibilities because Devotary was lurking late on the lynch but chose not to visibly intervene. 

I'm working from Dev's vote count, which expresses uncertainty of whether Illwei would put a late double vote:

Quote

Lotus (3/4): Matrim, Vapor, Illweix2?
Pyro (3): Gears, Lahilt, Lotus
Lahilt (2/3): Kasimirx2?, Striker
Mint (2): Sart, Araris
Illwei (1): Ashbringer
Araris (1): TJ Shade

A quick recap of those events: rollover occurs at 1000hrs for me. At 0947hrs, Striker votes on Lahilt, bringing Lahilt to 2 votes. At the same time, he ninjas Ash, who declines to change his vote, citing not enough time to make a reasoned vote. At 0958hrs, Devotary posts the vote count I've cited above, and suggests that Pyro and Lotus (the lead candidates) are deviating from normal Village, and that she wants to see if Illwei will double the vote.

Notice that neither Straw nor Devotary participated in this lynch. If there was an Elim candidate, I think it's safe to say (gauging from D3 Devotary lynch) that they were not in much danger. This is especially important because as someone with Cohesion, Straw might have had a hidden vote on D2, in which case, his declining to use it is especially interesting, since Straw and Devotary could do some lynch outcome swinging of their own.

There were several possible outcomes: first, (assuming that Illwei is Village and Devotary thus did not know how he would act), Illwei could double-vote (he indicated at 0959hrs that he would not, but that's too close to the lynch), turning the known lynch into Lotus (4) : Pyro (3) : Lahilt (2/3) [irrelevant what I do here], second, Illwei could abstain from double-voting, and I could double-vote, turning the known lynch into a three-way tie: Lotus (3) : Pyro (3) : Lahilt (3). I don't think they knew that Lotus had Tension, since Lotus was a Villager. Three: assume that Illwei was an Elim. Devotary knew he would not make the double-vote, likely because their team was indifferent between Lotus and Pyro. (What about the Lahilt lynch, though?) The outcomes fracture even further if we consider whether or not the movement behind the Vapor Vanish D2 was known to the Elims, and whether or not the movement of Devotary's vote was known as well.

In fact, it strikes me that we were not too far as well from a four-way tie, though the Elims may not have been aware of that if they lacked Tension. (If Lahilt is an Elim, they would have considered this.) Specifically: consider a case in which Illwei didn't double-vote, and I double-voted, and RNGesus hated a Tension user. We get: Lotus-Pyro-Lahilt-Mint, all tied at 3 votes each. But this requires so much chance I'm certain it didn't matter to anyone's calculations. So it's okay to focus on just Elim behaviour surrounding Lotus-Pyro-Lahilt.

Since we know there are only two possibilities for Lahilt, this simplifies analysis drastically:

A) V-V-V

Spoiler

Most straightforward case IMO. Pyro, Lotus, and Lahilt are all Villagers. If we assume that Devotary's vote was moved by a different Abrasion user, this makes sense: Devotary would be more or less indifferent to a lynch that endangers three Villagers. The problem continues to be that: it's hard to figure out who might have motivation to do this. They can't be a dead player, because we've not seen anyone with Abrasion so far. It's very barely possible it was Gears but it requires us to postulate that Gears got Pyro lynched, and then managed to be healed in time to die. So I don't put much weight on this possibility. If it's a living player, it's interesting they haven't come forward - you'd think a Villager would have incentive to own up to the action, to minimise the confusion. Though perhaps they might have judged it unimportant since Sart had more or less set Devotary to die.

If we assume Devotary moved her own vote, things become more interesting. For one, why Devotary and why not Straw? For another, we don't actually know if this is possible thanks to the GMs' PAFO. But let's assume this is possible, or at least: another way to put this is that an Abrasion user who was Elim-aligned shifted Devotary's vote. If @TJ Shade is right, the only possibilities left for this user would be Devotary, @Vapor (which explains the Vapor Vanish D2) and @Ashbringer. (Recall that Mint was not present for D2.) TJ had initially identified Straw as the possible vote shifter, but we now know Straw has Cohesion so it can't be Straw.

But let's look at the strategic purposes. Devotary had no way of knowing if I would double-vote, though I assume the team must be decently aware I had declared I would vote on Sart. What does Devotary or the Elims gain from manipulating a V-V-V vote? I presume: immediate suspicion on Lotus. (If I did vote Lahilt, this would be a bonus: suspicion on Lahilt as well.) In light of this, we want to look at people on N2/D3 who were pushing a Lotus suspicion line. [Note: This is especially interesting since Ash notes that Gears discussed Lotus and Illwei before they died N2, and speculates that the Elim team was gunning for a Lotus mislynch. Except that this is interesting. More on this later.] Possibly Lahilt, but less, since I didn't vote Lahilt. 

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People who were suspicious of Lotus N2/D3: Matrim, Illwei, Straw, Devotary, Ash, TJ Shade

A further corollary is that I think the Elims were not overly engaged in this lynch, given it's V-V-V: the hanging back on Straw's and Devotary's parts, IMO, shows a lack of overt engagement. Which means that while I would not be surprised to find Elims on the main lynches, I expect to see at least one of them desisting or on side-lynches.

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People who did not participate: Teft/Elan (inactive), Mint (offline), Straw, Devotary, Pyro.
People on side lynches: Sart, Araris, Ash, TJ

That's it. 

For desisters: one known Villager, two known Elims, and two people for whom it's not indicative because they were online.
For people on side lynches: one known Villager, one suspected Villager, Araris(!) and Ash.

B.) V-V-E

Spoiler

But what happens if Lahilt is an Elim? The big questions come down to: will Illwei double-vote? And will Kas double-vote? Suppose that a Village-aligned Abrasion-user moved the vote. Same concerns as in V-V-V: this should have come up before this, and our possibilities for who a Village Abrasion-user might be are shrinking. Moreover, the lack of action from Devotary and Straw would indicate they're fine with things, which...actually is not impossible. The Lahilt lynch only gets tied, giving a 1/3 chance of Lahilt being lynched, assuming I double-vote and Illwei doesn't. That's not exactly awful odds since we have to add the probability that I'll double-vote as well (at least. If Illwei isn't an Elim, then that's two probabilities they have to add. They certainly have no reason to interfere if Lahilt is an Elim.)

But suppose that this use of Abrasion came from the Elims. What would be the strategic point of it? Two birds with one stone: they get to frame Lotus to take the fall, and a guaranteed Pyro lynch removes any pressure from Lahilt that might come from me. I think in either light, we need to look at those who focused on Lotus N2/D3.

So, what's the score? It boils down to my conclusion that the lack of overt concern from the Elims means that we should expect to find at least some of them on the sidelines. (Again, I don't rule out - hence my suspicion of Mat - that at least one of them was on a major vote train.) I'm going to rehash these groups again for easy reference:

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People who were suspicious of Lotus N2/D3: Matrim, Illwei, Straw, Devotary, Ash, TJ Shade
People who did not participate: Teft/Elan (inactive), Mint (offline), Straw, Devotary, Pyro.
People on side lynches: Sart, Araris, Ash, TJ

I think it's telling that Straw and Devotary both did not participate in the D2 lynch, and that they later participated in Lotus suspicions. With Mat, it's harder to tell, IMO. I think Mat could be (in the parlance of influence ops) a useful rulo - it is possible that seeing that Mat bang on about Lotus gave them the idea that Mat would make a decent scapegoat, because he could be trusted to pursue a Lotus lynch, given he expressed suspicion of Lotus since D1. Of course, it's also possible that Mat happened to express suspicion of Lotus D1 as an Elim, and therefore decided to continue to pursue it given the set-up. But my view is that Elims who - as a team - seem to favour low profile play do not generally want to create suspicions out of nowhere. They want something useful rulos can jump on. As such, I expect there to be at least a Villager or two on the D2 Lotus train.

Surprisingly, @Matrim's Dice, this does mean you are no longer my leading suspicion, though you are still a suspicion.

I said I'd say more on it later. Gears commented on Lotus and Illwei N2, but none of it was particularly aggressive or an expression of suspicion. As such, it's interesting to me that Ash brought the issue up as a factor behind Gears's kill - almost as though he was setting/prepping the ground for a focus on Lotus without seeming too invested in it.

It gets more interesting because:

On 8/10/2020 at 7:05 AM, Ashbringer said:

Another thing is that their one query-type post from D2 was pointed toward Illwei. I'm beginning to think that Gears' death was an attempt to get a mislynch on Illwei (or Lotus perhaps? Those two were Gears' two main talking points D2-N2), and it's a correlation I think is worth pursuing. (That, and I trust Devotary to a point.)

and

On 8/10/2020 at 10:37 AM, Ashbringer said:

... you know, I almost put a vote on Lotus after Straw’s, but I figured that would look weird. Then I saw Straw and Devotary’s posts about how quickly this lynch came up and with no challenger, so I scrolled down and almost put a vote on Lotus again. Turns out Illwei and Mat had a similar idea...

Well, I don’t like this, but it’s better than having no reads or votes out there. @Lotus, I’ll give you a chance to defend yourself here. Matrim, Illwei, what exactly about Lotus do you suspect?

I’m rethinking my village read on Devotary as well. She did object to my bad plan, but I feel like that’s an easy way to earn Village credit. And she is acting seemingly different than previous games I’ve seen.

So my vote will likely end on one of these two.

Ash veers off his trust of Devotary and his awareness that Gears' death might be to get a lynch [note that he says mislynch] on Illwei or Lotus and says he wants to vote Lotus. And that happens...really quickly, and Ash conveniently hangs back after Illwei and Mat pile onto Lotus. And this after he put a vote on Straw.

Note that Straw replies soon after with a list of reads, to which Ash remarks:

On 8/10/2020 at 7:41 AM, Ashbringer said:

Aye, that is very similar  Straw, for now.

Straw disowns the Gears-Illwei connection and brings up the confirmed good slogan again. (Alert! Kas's Law violated!) It's interesting to me he didn't engage with Ash's comment about Lotus at all, and just says that he can't see an Elim team trying it. Which may be, but we've also seen this Elim team make a concerted effort to go after Lotus, after all! Straw also has a light Elim read on Illwei, FWIW. Ash seems to think he has a very similar read list.

Anyone who is interested is free to ISO Ash. I note that D2 he mentions not changing his vote because he doesn't have enough to place a reasoned vote. It's not necessarily an Elim thing, but it's another thing that builds into a player that is being especially, very careful and almost hedging in a way that ends up in a position that shifts very quickly but never strays into anything potentially dangerous, preferring to let others tank the heat for actions Ash claims he supports.

I'm suspicious of that, so Ash gets my vote.

Quiet day in contact tracing land today (thank you gods of health and fortune), so I guess I was bored enough to comb through something that caught my attention >>

P.S. For those who want vote pattern analysis, I still can't do it, but this is for you - a colour-coded map of the lynches so far, with confirmed Elims in red, and suspected Villagers in blue, and confirmed Villagers in green:

Spoiler

D1

Mist (4): Sart, Illwei, Araris, Illwei
Illwei (3): TJ Shade, Frozen Mint, Straw
Ashbringer (2): Matrim’s Dice, Devotary
Kasimir (1): Vapor, Kasimir
Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Lahilt
Lord_Silberfarben (1): Ashbringer
StrikerEZ (1): The Young Pyromancer

D2

Young Pyromancer (4): Gears, Lotus, Lahilt, Devotary
Lahilt (3): Kasimir, StrikerEZ, [X]
Lotus (1): Matrim, Illwei, Vapor
Mint (2): Sart, Araris
Araris (1): TJ Shade
Sart (1): Kasimir

D3:

Devotary (12): Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrim, TJ Shade, Straw, Frozen Mint, Lotus, Illwei, Vapor, Kasimir, Sart, Lahilt, StrikerEZ
Matrim (1): Araris

D4:

Straw (11):  Ashbringer, Matrim, Araris, TJ Shade, Lotus, Vapor, Kasimir, Lahilt, StrikerEZ, Illwei, [X]
Matrim (1): Frozen Mint

P.P.S. Straw actually says this N2:

On 8/8/2020 at 11:46 AM, Straw said:

So, +1 to Sart and Lahilt, -1 to Pyro and Lotus.

He claims it's a typo, which it could very well be, but I'm wondering if this was actually a slip. If it was a slip, we might have a vote manipulator on the Elim team as well, hence the knowledge that there would/might be one less vote on Pyro. This makes me look again at Lahilt - not impossible he tried using Tension to Soothe a vote on himself, just in case, or even on Vapor and the assumption was that the vote wouldn't ricochet back to Pyro...except it did. Just a thought.

Edit: Fixed borked formatting.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Kasimir

[|TJ|]

Whoa, Kas. I'm at the end of my thinking capacity (half from studying for my exams, half from reading that post). While you certainly make some good points, it's still not enough for me to overlook the Lotus shift in D3. Straw would have discussed and voted for Lotus, testing waters to see if any villager would want to lynch Lotus. Illwei does, and Matrim then follows. The gap between Straw and Matrim's vote convinces me further that he's an elim. Of course, Ash and Matrim could both by elims, but I suspect Matrim more.