Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Mat]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I sent in the order to remove Progression from Araris and then swapped targets to Mat.

I used the Surge. I spared Araris. I won a kayana point. Almighty forgive me.

I see. I am left with no way to prove myself.

I'm getting a bit of déjà vu right now. Let's try to make this a QF46 scenario, alright?  

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

In the end, I went for Araris because of revenge I could not find a plausible reason he would Progress Kas. I was about to change it to Matrim at the last moment,

Aahhh looks like it didn't matter xD Well that happened. Since when were there so many diseases flying around? PM's are closed!

Edited August 15, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I see. I am left with no way to prove myself.

You do have a Background, you know

But more seriously, I have never considered your role-block to be unproven. My read of you comes from the usual source: posts and votes (albeit with weaker analysis on my part than usual since I don't have the time to actually focus on the game beyond rough staring in my breaks) - which is true of everyone else in the thread, too.

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm getting a bit of déjà vu right now. Let's try to make this a QF45 scenario, alright?  

I agree, let's try to make this QF45  If you're Village.

[Mat]

45 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You do have a Background, you know

Fair enough  But I'll follow Ash in keeping that one hidden until necessary. 

Edit: Starting now, I'll be inactive for 4-5 hours.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[The_God_King]

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

What happened to Illwei's vote? Was it just missed or..?

Just missed! It should be fixed 

[Vapor]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 

@Vapor, what's the D3 Devotary scan like?

I haven't gotten it yet.

[Kasimir]

Right, then. Some thoughts prior to my updated reads:

1. This means we have two confirmed vote manips on the Elim team. Given the weirdness with Devotary's vote - I really wonder if it's Lahilt at work, but that gives us more votes that don't make sense, so we have to postulate even more vote shenanigans. I asked if it was Devotary herself using Abrasion on herself but got PAFOed and told it had to do with OOA, which could mean we're looking at a kind of vote interaction here. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more Elim vote firepower. I just want to flag that what happened with Straw is a good example of the limitations of distro reasoning: we were technically right that at least one Cohesion person had to be an Elim - it's just that the pool of people with Cohesion turned out to be larger than we expected, such than an undeclared Cohesion user (Straw) turned out to be our Elim.

Not to say we can't use distro reasoning, but that it has limitations, so as usual, not in isolation.

2. I disagree that it's too on the nose for Elan to oppose the two lynches - but I actually also don't especially think Elan is an Elim at this point in time. I don't really want to try reading Elan even when I'm 100% in the game because I suck at IKYKs and our Elim profile mismatches just makes it worse  So basically, yes, I'm too scared of Elan to try, so sue me. The thing is, both Mint and I highlighted the fact that the lack of active opposition [again, remember, actual alternative lynches - something more serious than just questions about Lotus's and Straw's claims]  to the Straw lynch. This is directly opposite what went on with Devotary, where we had Mat and Lotus proposed as alternative lynch candidates. 

As mentioned previously, I theorise that this implies the Elims will either have bandwagoned onto the Straw lynch for Village cred, or simply hung back and joined later on. I'm going to identify the three clusters:

Spoiler

 

Early voters [i.e. all within the hour] : Lotus, TJ, Araris, Illwei, Ash*

Potential bandwagoners: Striker, Kas, Mat

Potential hangers: Lahilt, Vapor, Mint

Did not vote: Elan

 

I've greyed out the names of those I think are likely to be Villagers, and blued those are think are potentially Village but I'm less certain of them. As mentioned, TJ was early in the vote trains on Straw and Devotary. Even if we postulate the Devotary lynch was a bus, the second Straw lynch, so quick to follow, is less likely to be one, in my eyes. And Lotus was first off the bat to scan Straw and report it. A second bus to gain trust so soon after Devotary is unlikely. Furthermore, IMO, if Lotus were an Elim fakeclaiming a scan for trust, there's no reason not to claim action scanner, rather than target scanner. (Yes, she did claim History in a PM with me and in thread, and referenced it in D1 RP, but still... Not like Lahilt didn't lie about his background D1.)

Anyway, I don't think those greys are controversial, but I just wanted to mention my reasoning briefly anyway. I've italicised Ash because he posted about three minutes past the hour, which is acceptable lag, but strictly speaking, not within the hour.

Given the concerted lack of Elim opposition, I don't actually think the Elims would be so bold as to directly question/challenge the lynch in this case. They're more likely to tentatively bite onto the prospect of alternative lynch, or to hide behind those who are questioning the lynch. (In Elan's case, I'd note that her piling a vote onto Straw after being convinced it's not a kayana lynch would be a cheap way to earn credit without notice. I don't think that's very Elim.)  

Araris and Illwei surprise me. They piled very quickly onto the Straw vote, which almost makes me suspect something fishy, given they're (or were, in Araris's case) two of my higher-tier Elim suspects. This could be to gain Village credit. I'm just not really sure what to make of this.

3. Here's another data-set to compare with. Evidently I need to think about things that aren't case/patient contact-tracing for a while. This is from D3:

Spoiler

Early voters [pre-Sart scan claim] : Kas, TJ, Sart, Striker

Pre Sart action scan voters: Mat, Lotus, Straw, Ash, Illwei

Potential hangers: Elan, Vapor, Mint, Lahilt

Desister: Araris

Looking at the votes again: I still think it is unlikely that the early voters are Elims, considering how much the Devotary lynch was contested until the two claims. I'm still weakly willing to regard Striker as being mild Village. While I am mildly suspicious of Araris still, I kind of feel like Araris desisting from voting on Devotary has the same implications as Elan: it's a really easy way to gain Village credit, or at least, not to stand out. The fact he didn't do it makes me reconsider - for the moment - some of my heavy suspicions. And the thing is, Village!Araris and me have always butted heads in the past about how to be Village. So there's that as well, at least for me.

4. If Araris is an Elim, it is in my view is unlikely for Illwei to be one. And vice versa. Make of that what you will.

5. @Illwei, did you double-vote last Turn?

6. I feel like I have a new law to add to El's favourite slogan: Kas's Law: The more often a player says, unsolicited, "Confirmed good does not mean confirmed right," the more likely they are to be an Elim. I'd argue it's true that the Village sometimes takes confirmed or highly probably Good players to be correct a bit too quickly, but then this slogan is often used to dismiss what IMO is a fairly legit thing, which is analysing what a Good player says without having to be wary of their motives or that they're trying to throw in scapegoats/false leads. That's a different level of critical reading from having to ask yourself if you're being misled. I swear this has happened often enough in my past few games, and Straw just did it again  

7. @Vapor Noted. Did the GMs forget, or you planned on sending the order in tonight? (Might want to @ them if they forgot.)

8. I genuinely don't know what to make of so much Progression flying around. People, please use your Backgrounds wisely. They're the one thing that can't be blocked by Progression, only Division.

Current updated claims:

Spoiler

History: 6 (7 if Ash is claiming History  )
Chemistry: 2
Physics: 2
Realmatic Theory: 3
Medicine: 3

To a total of 16.

9. As mentioned before, I anticipate anywhere between 2-3 more Elims, with 4 being the high end.

[Vapor]

Edit: Understood.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Vapor

[Elandera]

Alright, I've had a cumulative 8 hours of sleep for the last 3 days, so I'm basically going to be useless with trying to analyze anything. However, let me put down a reads list so there's some data from me for once.

Ashbringer - Slightly village, though I want to look more closely at those posts about Straw last turn. I think I missed what everyone is talking about. 

Matrim's Dice - Unknown, though I want lean village. 

Araris Valerian - Unknown, though leaning slightly elim. That could be because I'm usually suspicious of them naturally. 

TJ Shade - Village-ish. I don't remember seeing a ton from them while I've been in the game, but nothing really seems off there. 

Frozen Mint - Unknown, slight village. However, I also consider their vote last turn to be an obviously bad move for an elim. It could draw a lot of attention to be the only vote actively opposing the well-established bandwagon on a teammate. 

Lotus - Village because of taking down Straw. 

Illwei - Unknown, slight elim gut read but I don't know why at the moment. 

Vapor - Village lean

Kasimir - Village

Lahilt - Unknown

StrikerEZ - Unknown

EDIT: 

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

2. I disagree that it's too on the nose for Elan to oppose the two lynches - but I actually also don't especially think Elan is an Elim at this point in time. I don't really want to try reading Elan even when I'm 100% in the game because I suck at IKYKs and our Elim profile mismatches just makes it worse  So basically, yes, I'm too scared of Elan to try, so sue me.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Elandera

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

If Araris is an Elim, it is in my view is unlikely for Illwei to be one. And vice versa. Make of that what you will.

Well... I had originally disagreed with this, but they are attacking each other pretty hard, such as the vote Araris cast earlier that wasn't even legal.

Say we lynched either and they flipped village, what would you think of the other? At the moment I'm inclined to agree with TJ that one of them is an elim, but I dunno. Don't want to be too over-eager about planning all the future lynches  

[Kasimir]

25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Say we lynched either and they flipped village, what would you think of the other? At the moment I'm inclined to agree with TJ that one of them is an elim, but I dunno. Don't want to be too over-eager about planning all the future lynches  

That's interesting, because bottom-line, the conditionals aren't the same. The conditional I mentioned is (C1) "If Araris is an Elim, then Illwei is unlikely to be one" and (C2) "If Illwei is an Elim, then Araris is unlikely to be one." The problem is that conditionals aren't directional, and the conjunction of (C1) and (C2) is actually not a bi-conditional, given we waive the language of probability ("unlikely") and just treat it straight-out as a normal conditional so we can use negation rules. The inverse you might thinking of is (I1) "If Illwei is Village, then Araris is an Elim," and (I2) "If Araris is Village, then Illwei is an Elim." The conjunction would be (I1) and (I2).

The issue is that (I1) & (I2) don't have the same truth-table as (C1) & (C2). In short, they're not the same conditionals - opinion on (C1) & (C2) does not automatically affect (I1) & (I2). 

My current take if one flips Village: light suspicion on Illwei if Araris flips Village, and w.r.t. Araris, unclear atm if Illwei flips Village.

Bottom line, evidence should be taken as a whole, yeah? Of course it could be distancing, especially since nothing precludes what I'm thinking about from counting as distancing since it happened prior to Devotary. If there's other, independent/new reason to think Illwei or Araris is suspicious [Edited to add: e.g. one of them last-minute driving the vote to the other in a new cycle], then I'd go for the other. But really, maybe the less confusing way to phrase my statement is as follows:

I assign low probability to the possibility that Illwei and Araris are Elims together. So this tells me nothing if one of them turns up Village - in fact, I would expect that, given my statement.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Kasimir

[---]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@Illwei, did you double-vote last Turn?

I did not. Kinda wondering about what happened with the vapor vanish (though of course it only happened twice i guess? I was debating throwing my second vote on Mint to try and communicate something to someone but I figured it wouldn't be taken well, as well as I'm not even sure now what I was trying to say and I'm pretty sure the person who I was trying to say it to wouldn't have understood either :P.

So basically those sentences above don't mean much either but no I didn't use it. I guess that could add to the theory that I was covering for Devotary? we now know that if I was an Elim then I would have known about cohesion because of Straw, and I guess could have used that to cover up Devotary. That wouldn't really make any sense though I guess because I would have just used Devotary's disease I think. er, I in the general sense of you. And you in the general sense of... *gestures around the room* ...us?

Okay that really doesn't mean anything either but I don't like how both the new progression-y guys did not target me and that Araris was roleblocked? so- yeah. I guess it's maybe a village guy though because I'm kinda on everyone's Elim list :).

Edited August 15, 2020 by Illwei
My dog keeps chewing on the corners of my laptop

[Kasimir]

Current Reads

Moderate Trust:

(Sorry, I don't think I do utter trust unless it's deductively certain. A bit too paranoid.)

Spoiler

• TJ Shade: Involved early on in both the Devotary and Straw lynches. Unlkely to be a bus. Probably my strongest Village read.
   
• Lotus: Straw lynch would not have happened without her. Circumstances and nature of claim make bus unlikely. Weaker Village read than TJ, and could probably be in Slight Trust category if I'm paranoid - so borderline.

Soysauce:

i.e. not too much trust, not too little. Weak Trust.

Spoiler

• Striker: I still dither about his involvement in the Devotary lynch. Not impossible that he could have jumped on board and shifted later if Lotus et al gained more traction. And certainly, it's possible for individual Elims to adopt different strategies of concealment - in fact, quite frankly, I'd expect it - and yet if Straw started a counterlynch, and the only public reasoning available then was mine, with Sart just jumping on board, I feel that joining in isn't a very Elim thing to do. However, he's also in the potential bandwagoner territory for the Straw lynch. I could see a Striker-Araris connection to be potentially wary of, but for the moment, tentative trust. [Note: strongest Soysauce atm.]
   
• Elan: I am uncertain of how to read Elan, as I've mentioned before. Resisted both the Straw and Devotary lynch. And yet it seems to me there are obvious ways to gain more Village credit which she did not take. I'm more suspicious of resistance to Devotary than I am to Straw, due to my reads of differing Elim behaviour in each lynch. Very tentative, weak trust.

Rice Noodle Rolls:

aka bland, bleargh, meh, dunno. This tier is already cause for alarm, in my eyes.

Spoiler

• Ash: A small bit weaker than the tentative trust range. I'm not thrilled by IDing Elim targets. That being said, I feel like his move at the end is a bit more Village - it was realistically too late with too great a margin to expect to turn the lynch around.
   
• Vapor: Still not enough info to get a read.

Seems Suss, Lynch Later Maybe, IDK:

Spoiler

• Mint: Slight negative gut feeling stemming from her position in the late stages of both lynches. I feel as though her positioning has been careful pushback, and I'm not versed enough in IKYKs to decide how to read that vote on Mat. Realistically, I don't think she had a chance of drawing votes off, but...
   
• Araris: *slaps entry* This entry can fit so much doubt in it! I go back and forth about Araris too, it seems. On the one hand, the refusal to bandwagon on the Devotary lynch nags me as lightly Village - an Elim has no reason to stick out that much. It could be a IKYK. At the same time, there's the doubts I've mentioned before: if you think Mint and Illwei are both Elims together, but that's anchored on Illwei's read of Mint, then presumably the answer is to vote Illwei rather than to vote Mint. (Moreover, suspecting that Illwei is Elim doesn't mean that Illwei's read of Mint is helping a fellow Elim. Could just as easily be scapegoating.) [Note that this line of reasoning only makes Araris an Elim if we postulate that Illwei is also an Elim and Araris wants to avoid implicating Illwei. Bad reasoning need not make someone an Elim unless we can postulate why it would make sense for an Elim to do it. The question here would be what the Elim motive would be - the most reasonable being the hypothesis that Elim!Araris doesn't want to implicate Illwei. But I'm not super convinced by this because Elim!Araris literally has a simpler option to avoid getting into this mess to begin with: complain about Mint's vote analysis point from N1! Similarly, Elim!Illwei has no incentive (I think) to lampshade this at all.] Weak  But I agree with the point on Mat, and his choice of Progression targets makes little sense to me given his suspicions. And I'm partly alarmed by Lahilt suddenly finding Araris very suspicious. 

Durian:

aka something stinks here

Spoiler

• Illwei: Reasons given previously. Bearish on Devotary, with little reaction. Questions but doesn't seem particularly engaged with discussion. Probably the weakest of my suspicions within this tier.
   
• Lahilt: Peripheral and within a risky, late voter tier to both the Devotary and Straw lynches. Partly gut, but his sudden jump onto Araris just seems like someone looking for a lynch wagon to hitch to. Response to Ash's gambit late D4 seems semi-alarming.
   
• Mat: Sigh. I feel like he's been in a sweet spot on both the Devotary and Straw lynches: lots of careful questions in the Devotary lynch, though he was fast enough to respond to Sart's scan claim back when we didn't know what sort of claim it was.Mild suspicion for piling on the Lotus counter-train - I think it'd be kayana for all the Elims to back the train, but it's possible we have two of the Lotus voters being Elims. I'm also mildly suspicious that Straw didn't bother to double on Araris's Mat vote and went straight for Lotus - now that we know Straw is an Elim, I wonder if it's because Straw wasn't about to counterlynch an Elim. Something tonally off about the proving self via role-block post: this is literally what we do in every game, role-block or otherwise, especially if we're vanillas - like in QF46. And TJ already made it clear Mat having Division was never in question. So why that? Feels a bit Elim-like.

Putting all the evidence together, I don't feel especially strongly on Araris right now, and I don't think it entirely eradicates the reasons for doubt. Ultimately, while he's no longer my strongest suspicion, I'd not be upset if we lynched him. My biggest suspicion is (hoo boy, surprise!) Mat.

Anyway, goodnight all, I'm dead tired and I want to crash so I shall stop trying to be useful. See you all on the other side of rollover - or not  

[Frozen Mint]

17 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @Frozen Mint, your vote was suspicious but not entirely Elim. Did you have any info (read/PM/action/something) that specifically made you believe Straw?

No, I didn't. Like I said, I wanted to avoid having a single lynch train. I'd also discourage asking questions like this in thread. I know a lot of people have revealed their abilities but I wouldn't ask others to.

@The_God_King Are PM's still closed?

[Vapor]

Hey Kas, I got a response. Ashbringer, Matrim, TJ Shade, Straw, Frozen Mint, Lotus, Illwei, Vapor, Kasimir, Sart, Lahilt, StrikerEZ. The Elandera one was missing.

[Frozen Mint]

1 minute ago, Vapor said:

Hey Kas, I got a response. Ashbringer, Matrim, TJ Shade, Straw, Frozen Mint, Lotus, Illwei, Vapor, Kasimir, Sart, Lahilt, StrikerEZ. The Elandera one was missing.

I'd personally discourage posting results like this in the thread.

[Vapor]

Well, PM's are closed.

[The_God_King]

2 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

No, I didn't. Like I said, I wanted to avoid having a single lynch train. I'd also discourage asking questions like this in thread. I know a lot of people have revealed their abilities but I wouldn't ask others to.

@The_God_King Are PM's still closed?

yes

[The_God_King]

The cycle is now closed!

 

Double Post for clarity of cycle closure

[The_God_King]

 

Daily Report 06-04-766

Stormlight has been removed from most of the university. With exception to specific rooms dedicated to researching a way to remove the infectious material from the university. Investiture is heavily monitored and separate living quarters have been established to house the interns.

Quarantine Day 6

The diseases have been pinned down and Rosharin medical experts are being brought in to combat the spread

 

I apologize about the lack of RP this cycle, 

Lotus has been killed! They were a loyal intern and had a background in history, they also had Tension - Action: Remove someone's vote, your vote will be assigned randomly to someone with at least one vote

Spoiler

1. Gears - Dr. Gears Medical, No Condition

2. Ashbringer - Faleast

3. The Young Pyromancer Physics, Tension - Action: Remove someone's vote, your vote will be assigned randomly to someone with at least one vote

4 Elandera

5. Matrim's Dice - Farns

6. Araris Valerian - Klumm Z.

7. Lord_Silberfarben - Lord-son-...-Silberfarben History, Progression - Action: Target one player, remove their condition

8. TJ Shade - Kondrea

9. Straw - Straw History, Cohesion - Action: Add a vote

10. Mist - Tara night  History, Transformation - Action: kill target player; you die as well

11. Frozen Mint 

12. Lotus - Lucy

13. Illwei 

14. Vapor 

15. Kasimir - Maris Erikell

16. Sart - Thomas  Chemistry, Division - Action: You may role block a player, but you may not communicate in PMs

17. Lahilt - T. A. Hill

18. Devotary - Liba Medical, Abrasion - Action: you may move a player's vote to another target, but doing so removes your own vote.

19. StrikerEZ 

 

[Mat]

...I suppose it's a good thing I was correct about my reevaluation of Lotus. Unfortunate we lost a scanner, but probably expected :P.

This does mean we know the History background ability... If Kas's numbers are correct... why are there so many scanners? I'm not complaining, but wow. 6 action scanners in one game? That's like 1/3 of the players, which seems a bit overkill. But I digress.

Interested to see how the votes play out this cycle. Probably gonna be split between Araris, Illwei, and myself. My vote will end up on one of the former two, depending on how the discussion goes.

 

[---]

If I was an Elim I would kill Kas before Lotus? anyways-

Do we have any other happy coincidences of History/Chemistry guys finding something cool? :P. Honestly though Idk what I would feel if we had more people claim they saw a kill last night. 

*Noticed that I am kinda asking questions that don't really need answers*

Ah. hehe. anyways-

Also Matrim we don't know if all of these people have gotten powers from their backgrounds, so there might not be as many as we actually think. maybe there's some sort of limit at a time or something? 

 

Edited August 16, 2020 by Illwei
ehehe please don't kill me

[|TJ|]

Right, my top suspects are Matrim, Illwei and Lahilt. 

Lahilt because of this D2 vote:

Quote

Pyro (4) - Gears, Lahilt, Lotus

I refuse to think Straw would provide Lotus as an alternate lynch option without the support of his at least one of his teammates. So I believe at least (I believe both) one of Matrim and Illwei is elim. Let's look at Matrim's defense for Devotary:

On 8/10/2020 at 2:43 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

• Devotary of Spontaneity- I totally see where Kas is getting at- he has some really good points- but Devotary also makes good points, and tbh they seem relatively similar to the other games I've played with them, down to me not being able to read them very well . Their wall-of-textish analysis posts and voting patterns are all in line from what I would expect from village!Devotary. But in light of Kas's points, and partly that nagging section of my gut, I'll put Null, but leaning on Slight Village.

Hedging. I agree with A, but B also makes good points. Not strongly, but subtly defending a teammate. 

Straw's read post:

On 8/10/2020 at 5:02 AM, Straw said:

Village:

TJ Shade - Strongest village read, can't see anything very suspicious. Generally helpful.

Kasimir - Quote gimmick makes it more difficult to read their earlier posts. Seems to legitimately have village interests in mind with information openness. Has apparently been PMing. Not sure if I like that. I would prefer to have more openness in the thread.

Matrim's Dice - Has regularly put out analysis that seems to be coming from a good mindset. Specifically hasn't been holding back on giving reads, which I like. They get additional points from me due to their willingness to claim.

I definitely believe Straw would've a hidden a teammate among his village reads. No one else gave Matrim a village read before this. Reasoning for giving village read to Matrim sounds fake. The reasons given are what any elim would do to hide among the village (i.e. giving out reads, and seemingly doing analysis). It's what Mat has been doing as a villager, and deviating from that would be suspicious. The above given reasons would not convince me that Matrim's Dice is a villager at all. 

---

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

If I was an Elim I would kill Kas before Lotus? anyways-

Absolute scenes when it's revealed that Kas has been pocketing the entire village all this time  

Spoiler

 

Edited August 16, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Elandera]

6 hours ago, Illwei said:

If I was an Elim I would kill Kas before Lotus? anyways-

@Kasimir  I'm watching you, Kasowski... Always watching. 

That little part of me is starting to be paranoid because he keeps living, but also, I would have killed Lotus first, too. Yes, Kas is fairly trusted but he doesn't have the same kind of ability as Lotus: target scan. Kas knows a bunch, but has been crippled some by the lack of PMs. Lotus would have kept being a problem is they scanned the right person. 

Edited August 16, 2020 by Elandera

[Kasimir]

@TJ Shade Dude, you may wanna spoiler that in case someone reads on mobile data.

I just got off work so a lot of things are fragmentary at the moment as I'm tired. And yes, it's a Sunday, I know. I am sad and life is hard. I'll try to do something better later.

I haven't yet received my scan results but have nudged the GMs in order to know if I'm roleblocked or otherwise. @Elkanah, @The_God_King (I know you can't confirm or deny in thread, but just flagging my PM )

Matrim's Dice. The conclusion of my thoughts from last Night, and agreed with TJ's reasoning on Straw's reads. 

10 minutes ago, Elandera said:

That little part of me is starting to be paranoid because he keeps living, but also, I would have killed Lotus first, too. Yes, Kas is fairly trusted but he doesn't have the same kind of ability as Lotus: target scan. Kas knows a bunch, but has been crippled some by the lack of PMs. Lotus would have kept being a problem is they scanned the right person. 

 I like how y'all taking up that one thread from a suspect TJ and I share now  But heck - I'm paranoid that I'm still alive: paranoid it means my suspicions are all completely off base  

I mean, ngl, more or less agreed. Lotus was very trusted because of Straw, and she could target scan. My utility to the Village more or less was reduced when PMs shut, and vote scanning won't be an issue if there's no one left on the Elim team to pull out vote shenanigans (not sure how likely this is - 50-50?), or at least if they're not planning on doing that anymore. Moreover, I'm not exactly able to put my head 100% in the game so y'all keep getting low-quality reads from me. It's not exactly strange and it still fits the profile Araris mentioned: threats/almost confirmed Good Villagers if necessary, and pick targets with minimal kill information otherwise.

@TJ Shade What about Lahilt on D2? Working with Devotary?

[|TJ|]

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@TJ Shade What about Lahilt on D2? Working with Devotary?

I forgot a point. I felt there's something odd about his D1 vote on Devotary. Just a bad feeling that it was not a genuine vote, but an initial distancing effort (note that he did not change his vote). Full Post for reference:

On 8/4/2020 at 2:58 AM, Lahilt said:

Hmm... After looking through the thread I am not finding any solid suspicions (which is not unusual for day 1) 

The Silberfarben idea seems odd but not exactly alignment indicative. 

@Lord_Silberfarben do you have any reasoning to support an alignment scanner?

The TJ Shade-Illwei exchange was interesting. A good move by TJ to attempt trapping an Elim? or a move to cast legitimate suspicion on a villager? 

Random gut read @Devotary of Spontaneity

Devotary of Spontaneity do you have anything to say?

What a worthless bunch of recruits, they would be better at picnics than research, much less a real battle, and I have seen my share of those. - quote T. A. Hill

It's not exactly indicative, but I feel something off about it. Too off-the-bat.

About the D2 lynch, his timing of the vote on Pyro is what I always relate as elim timing. Pyro had 2 votes on him (Kas, Gears) and 2 others had 1 votes on them (Gears, Mint). Felt like this vote was to solidify the mislynch.