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Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn


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34 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Oh, I had a thought. If there's an elim with this ability, distancing and "bussing" votes are highly probable to make it look like there are more votes and lure village into complacency. 

Possibly, that's true. We do need to be wary of that, but I also suspect we have some actual bussing votes and distancing votes anyway. Just look at the number of players voting on Devotary.

Anyway. Brief announcement to make. (And yes, I'm sorry. I wouldn't have signed up for this game if I knew RL was going to be this disruptive, sigh...) Got a text from my boss an hour ago, which means going forwards, I have once again been rotated onto the active COVID-19 duty roster. I don't really know when/if I'm going to get the time and space I need to do deep, focused analysis or vote pattern analysis. If y'all want to yeet me, that's fine, because I don't know if I can afford to give this game even the divided attention level I've been doing for the past week or so. (Probably try 'three brain cells'...)

That's about it. Going to get some affairs in order and try to give some people the tools they need, since I expect to be a kill target tonight anyway. If it's not already obvious, I think y'all should look into Araris tomorrow. Not just on the basis of Target Scanner #2 (though this would also be a validation of Target Scanner #2 if they're right), but because Araris has exhibited some odd voting patterns over the past cycles. Especially pronounced and highlighted by Ash last cycle.

I'll see if there's anything left for me to say beyond that. I only wish I could leave y'all with more useful things. Village 파이팅!

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Some thoughts:

Who I think is Village: 

Kas: Kas has been generally helpful in this round. They also seemed to suspect Devotary pretty quickly, which makes me think they aren't an Elim.

Sart: For obvious reasons, Sart is soft-cleared, although perhaps that could be effective Elim distancing? For now, at least, I'm inclined to trust him.

 

Null:

Straw, Vapor, Elandera, Araris, Straw, Mint, Illwei, Lahilt 

 

Suspect to be Elim:

Ashbringer: I just don't like Ashbringer this round. Don't have much concrete reason other than a weird Ash-Mat-Tj pattern I saw.

Matrim's dice: Something just feels off about Mat's posts this round. I'm not sure what, but he isn't posting as much. (Also cause he is really latching on to me being elim)

TJ Shade: Tj, again, not sure exactly what but I'm suspicious, along with the fact that Ash and Mat both seem to somewhat trust.

 StrikerEZ: Striker is a much more of a mild Elim for me but they're still on the list.

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16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Real quick, I was using my ability under the assumption that diseases had downsides (not sure if this is true for N2, I think I wanted to see Kas’s reaction, which he didn’t). I actually have 2 copies of the healing power, with progression and the medical background.

Wait, so Medical isn’t a protect, it’s a disease clean?

Oh dear.

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15 hours ago, Elkanah said:

7. Lord_Silberfarben - Lord-son-...-Silberfarben History, Progression - Action: Target one player, remove their condition

No, Progression is the heal. Don't know what Medical does. 

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Wait, so Medical isn’t a protect, it’s a disease clean?

Oh dear.

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45 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

No, Progression is the heal. Don't know what Medical does. 

Araris says it's the same.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Real quick, I was using my ability under the assumption that diseases had downsides (not sure if this is true for N2, I think I wanted to see Kas’s reaction, which he didn’t). I actually have 2 copies of the healing power, with progression and the medical background.

 

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48 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

No, Progression is the heal. Don't know what Medical does. 

Araris said he had 2 heal abilities, and a medical background along with Progression. So it's assumed that that's what medical does as well. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Ash.

1 hour ago, Lotus said:

Matrim's dice: Something just feels off about Mat's posts this round. I'm not sure what, but he isn't posting as much. (Also cause he is really latching on to me being elim)

Well, first off, your 2 village reads are the ones that are all soft-cleared by everybody, so it could be a way to blend in. Secondly, that's a good point regarding me. I probably am tunneling on you- and I'll look at your upcoming posts in a better light, as you did analysis, which is what I asked for, so thank you.

As for me being more quiet this round, this is also true. I was more active in the QF, the cycles were shorter, more was going on. Plus, this is a blackout game, so there's less to analyze/talk about. Though I believe that my activity rate is about the same as it was in the other LG's I've done. If anything, I was more active than usual in the QF. :P But I don't think activity should really be something you lean on for your reads, as it varies depending on RL and game flavor.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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I’d also like to say that I will continue to use my healing ability. I think the powers are of greater potential use to the elims than the village (or at least the vote stuff is), so I plan to cleanse people using my best judgement.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well, first off, your 2 village reads are the ones that are all soft-cleared by everybody, so it could be a way to blend in.

I would tend to say that fewer elim reads is a better way to blend in than few village reads. It’s also generally easier to check if an elim read someone posted is sincere; just propose to lynch the relevant person.

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17 hours ago, Kasimir said:

So, an organised info-dump of sorts:

While my policy has never been to solicit claims via PMs, these are the folks who have claimed to me: [Edited to add: Action Scanner #2], Double-Voter #3, Vote Scanner #2, Target Scanner #1, Target Scanner #2, and Thug #1. I have anonymised them because I don't ethically like outing people. I cannot account for any of them being Village [i.e. please be aware my informants may not be reliable, or may have ulterior motives to mislead], though I do believe some of them to be Villagers.

With that in mind:

  • Double-Voter #3 did not use their double-vote on the Devotary lynch as they forgot to put in their order.
     
  • Target Scanner #2 scanned Araris and found that Araris targeted me last night. This is especially interesting because I lost my double vote, i.e. I am perfectly healthy again :P but chose not to bring it up last cycle in light of Araris's interesting behaviour of crediting one vote to me in his vote tally, which seemed to indicate awareness of my situation. Unless we postulate more Silbers, it seems to be the case that Araris has been a very, very busy boy indeed... and likely visited TJ as well the night before. The really interesting question is how Village it is to remove a role-block from TJ :ph34r:
     
  • Thug #1 mentioned wanting to get their situation out because they don't want to be side-eyed by the Village if their vote doesn't count. Their ability is conditional (so probably a Surge) - they have an extra life and will survive one attack, but after surviving the attack, their vote no longer counts. Sounds a bit like the Vapor Vanish to me. @Vapor, were you attacked, by any chance?

Merry Kasmas, and to all a good night!

Edited to add: Right, sorry folks, alles klar now, there was a confusion and a communication error and much misunderstandings. There is a condition which means your votes don't count, period. Likely Vapor has it too.

Edited to add #2: @Elkanah - interesting puzzle for you :P Suppose a user of Abrasion did not vote. Further suppose said player used Abrasion to shift their vote onto Pyro. What would happen? Would Abrasion nullify their vote? Or would this be a way of bypassing the nullification associated with using Abrasion?

Would I know if I were?

Hoping to get more active tomorrow, I think I'll get my phone back then

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4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’d also like to say that I will continue to use my healing ability. I think the powers are of greater potential use to the elims than the village (or at least the vote stuff is), so I plan to cleanse people using my best judgement.

I would tend to say that fewer elim reads is a better way to blend in than few village reads. It’s also generally easier to check if an elim read someone posted is sincere; just propose to lynch the relevant person.

If the numbers Kas gave are accurate, there could be a lot of potential village actions. That could be useful, but in essence you're right. An elim without an action is probably better than a village without an action, though I haven't really thought about it.

Fair point, I suppose, but I still wish Lotus had defined more of her Null reads, especially the ones with enough info to read, such as Illwei.

4 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Would I know if I were?

Hoping to get more active tomorrow, I think I'll get my phone back then

Umm... Yes? I'm pretty sure you would get a PM from Elk or TGK saying you were attacked. But I also was under the impression that attacks were listed in the writeup, so I'm not entirely sure where Kas's question came from. But I guess in a blackout, it could be any ruleset.

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2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well, first off, your 2 village reads are the ones that are all soft-cleared by everybody, so it could be a way to blend in

Yes, very true. But I’m trying to look at everyone with a wary eye, so those are just the two I’m trusting.

Also, went through Devotary’s posts. They only did one analysis that I could find though, so it didn’t give a whole lot of info.

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25 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Yes, very true. But I’m trying to look at everyone with a wary eye, so those are just the two I’m trusting.

Also, went through Devotary’s posts. They only did one analysis that I could find though, so it didn’t give a whole lot of info.

A confirmed Elim’s prior analysis ALWAYS will give some info. Elims know everyone’s alignment (aside from special roles that may or may not exist, similar to my Kandra), and while they won’t read every other Elim good or bad, they’ll almost certainly make a Village or neutral read on some Elim, and likely an Elim read on another Elim as well.

Edited by Ashbringer
Clarity
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16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

A confirmed Elim’s prior analysis ALWAYS will give some info. Elims know everyone’s alignment (aside from special roles that may or may not exist, similar to my Kandra), and while they won’t read every other Elim good or bad, they’ll almost certainly make a Village or neutral read on some Elim, and likely an Elim read on another Elim as well.

Huh, interesting point. I’ll have to look again more carefully. 

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I'm kinda expecting to be cleansed by Araris this turn, as I'm apparently his #1 elim suspect- so this is the part where I say 'please don't' because he'd be wasting your time, and getting rid of a very good role. Though if he's an elim- which given statements by Kas and TJ I'm starting to find mildly likely- that won't happen, and I'll assume that he put me as a suspect on his list to give an excuse to clear away a village roleblocker. @Sart, I would also watch out if I were you.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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I want to analyze the votes before I revealed my scan, because, while that post was necessary, it really skewed the thread.

Vote Count:
Ashbringer (0): StrikerEZ
Devotary (4): Kasimir, TJ Shade, Sart, StrikerEZ
Matrim (1): Araris
Straw (0): Ashbringer
Lotus (3): Straw, Illwei, Matrim

I highly doubt there was a bus on Devotary, so I'm going to trust Kasimir, TJ, and Striker. On the other hand, the lynch on Lotus seriously gave me red flags. That means I suspect Straw, Illwei, and Matrim. I also suspect Araris for trying to get a different lynch started.

Trust List (From most to least trusted):

  1. Sart: I trust myself, obviously.
  2. Kasimir: Led the lynch on Devotary, enough said.
  3. TJ Shade: Also voted on Devotary after Kasimir, and put some serious pressure on him.
  4. StrikerEZ: The other vote on Devotary. The vote was made after my first post, so there's a chance he's an Elim who guessed that I'm an action scanner, but I doubt it.
  5. Lotus: Their post tonight is too evil to be actually evil. Putting TJ Shade and Striker on your Elim reads is way too out of left field. Add to that them becoming the alternative vote target on Day 3, and we have someone I trust
  6. Lahlit: A newer player, but their poke vote Day 1 on Devotary makes me trust them.
  7. Frozen Mint: I like that they're still RP'ing. I originally suspected them for being less active, but my gut is now saying otherwise.
  8. Vapor: I still can't get a good read on them, but they're a newer player, so I'll give them the benfit of the doubt.
  9. Ashbringer: Devotary voted on them Cycle 1. However, we know Devotary vote manipulation removed their vote in thread, so it could have been a bluff. It would be helpful if we could pin down the vote manipulation on Day 1 to see if Devotary actually used their powers.
  10. Elandera: They mentioned that they sided with Devotary over Kasimir. That makes me mildly distrust them.
  11. Araris: I don't know where to put Araris, so he's going here.
  12. Matrim. Ashbringer and Matrim definitely aren't on the same team. He shares the same role as TJ and I, supposedly. Devotary really wanted us to lynch a role blocker, so that's evidence to his innocence.
  13. Illwei: My only stumbling block is role distribution related. He claims to have vote manipulation, and it would be odd if the Elim team had two people with that power. However, there's a chance that he took credit for Devotary's actions.
  14. Straw: He's been staying under the radar lately, and I don't like it. Add to that the vote on Lotus, and it's very suspicious.
Edited by Sart
Typo
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13 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
Ashbringer (0): StrikerEZ
Devotary (4): Kasimir, TJ Shade, Sart, StrikerEZ
Matrim (1): Araris
Straw (0): Ashbringer
Lotus (3): Straw, Illwei, Matrim

Wait, what round is this vote count for? It looks like this round, but I had one vote on me in the vote count, not three...

Edited by Lotus
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19 minutes ago, Sart said:

Illwei: My only stumbling block is role distribution related. He claims to have vote manipulation, and it would be odd if the Elim team had two people with that power. However, there's a chance that he took credit for Devotary's actions

I would say that I can confirm it next cycle, but I think I'm a top target for Araris as he said that he thought the vote manips were much more beneficial to the elims than village. in that case I guess it would end up being "oh no, look suddenly lost their vote manip right after Devotary died."
In that case, I confrmed my disease with Kas who had the same disease, and he also said (on N2? D3? I think D3 because he was talking about lynching devotary?) that he saw the extra votes from me. 
 

5 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Wait, what round is this vote count for? It looks like this round, but I had one vote on me in the vote count, not three...

You had 0 votes on you in this round's vote count lotus. Also I think that that's the vote count from right before everyone switched to Devotary

Edited by Illwei
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16 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Wait, what round is this vote count for? It looks like this round, but I had one vote on me in the vote count, not three...

Specifically, it's the series of votes right before Sart revealed Devotary used the Elim kill. So at that point there were 3 votes on you. (Strike-through'd votes are ones made then retracted before the reveal.) Sorta ninja'd but whatever.

29 minutes ago, Sart said:
  • Matrim. Ashbringer and Matrim definitely aren't on the same team.

Um... can I ask why? Because besides Lotus suggesting we are on a team, I haven't seen much connection between us. Unless it's an insider thing.

Edit: and now I return to the state of being nervous because someone upvoted my post for no visible reason... thank you?

Edited by Ashbringer
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23 minutes ago, Sart said:

I want to analyze the votes before I revealed my scan, because, while that post was necessary, it really skewed the thread.

Vote Count:
Ashbringer (0): StrikerEZ
Devotary (4): Kasimir, TJ Shade, Sart, StrikerEZ
Matrim (1): Araris
Straw (0): Ashbringer
Lotus (3): Straw, Illwei, Matrim

I highly doubt there was a bus on Devotary, so I'm going to trust Kasimir, TJ, and Striker. On the other hand, the lynch on Lotus seriously gave me red flags. That means I suspect Straw, Illwei, and Matrim. I also suspect Araris for trying to get a different lynch started.

Trust List (From most to least trusted):

  1. Sart: I trust myself, obviously.
  2. Kasimir: Led the lynch on Devotary, enough said.
  3. TJ Shade: Also voted on Devotary after Kasimir, and put some serious pressure on him.
  4. StrikerEZ: The other vote on Devotary. The vote was made after my first post, so there's a chance he's an Elim who guessed that I'm an action scanner, but I doubt it.
  5. Lotus: Their post tonight is too evil to be actually evil. Putting TJ Shade and Striker on your Elim reads is way too out of left field. Add to that them becoming the alternative vote target on Day 3, and we have someone I trust
  6. Lahlit: A newer player, but their poke vote Day 1 on Devotary makes me trust them.
  7. Frozen Mint: I like that they're still RP'ing. I originally suspected them for being less active, but my gut is now saying otherwise.
  8. Vapor: I still can't get a good read on them, but they're a newer player, so I'll give them the benfit of the doubt.
  9. Ashbringer: Devotary voted on them Cycle 1. However, we know Devotary vote manipulation removed their vote in thread, so it could have been a bluff. It would be helpful if we could pin down the vote manipulation on Day 1 to see if Devotary actually used their powers.
  10. Elandera: They mentioned that they sided with Devotary over Kasimir. That makes me mildly distrust them.
  11. Araris: I don't know where to put Araris, so he's going here.
  12. Matrim. Ashbringer and Matrim definitely aren't on the same team. He shares the same role as TJ and I, supposedly. Devotary really wanted us to lynch a role blocker, so that's evidence to his innocence.
  13. Illwei: My only stumbling block is role distribution related. He claims to have vote manipulation, and it would be odd if the Elim team had two people with that power. However, there's a chance that he took credit for Devotary's actions.
  14. Straw: He's been staying under the radar lately, and I don't like it. Add to that the vote on Lotus, and it's very suspicious.

For Illwei. It's necessary that he is a double voter. Strictly speaking, my evidence for Illwei being a double voter is more powerful than my evidence for Double-Voter #3 being a double-voter.

In the case of double-voter #3, I have their claim plus the fact they correctly described the flavour and rules of our disease. I also have the fact their claim explains the Lahilt vote and we already have some idea of the Lotus / Pyro votes that cycle. 

But the point I'm making is that this is the results I received for C1 Mist scan, which IMO are of necessity more powerful since it's a scan result:

Quote

Mist (4) : Sart, Illwei, Araris, Illwei

The issue is the second Illwei vote is distinctive. I'd argue you can't reproduce that by other vote manip since it requires the existence of a second vote simpliciter. 

@Matrim Not really sure why you are surprised. Been looking like it has the potential to end up being quasi role-madness for a while.

+ Not convinced that roles automagically help Elims, self-serving reasoning here. If role-blockers recklessly role-block, different story. Thread accountability is important. Araris doesn't seem interested in that. 

+ uncomfortable with medical claim—we don't know what it does + conveniently same background as Dev - attempt to suggest they both can't be same? 

P.S. Worth relooking Dev C1 voting behavior esp. vis-a-vis Araris: + C2 reasoning for voting Illwei because Mint seems fraught/motivated. Don't affirm the consequent. Bad logical fallacy. 

Agreed that attempts to divert to Matrim vote (Ar) + Lotus train were likely to save Dev. Suspicious. 

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2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim Not really sure why you are surprised. Been looking like it has the potential to end up being quasi role-madness for a while

What are you not sure why I'm surprised about?

Not sure who you're tagging there but it isn't me :P 

 

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1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What are you not sure why I'm surprised about?

Not sure who you're tagging there but it isn't me :P 

 

Comment on a lot of potential V actions. 

Edit: Not bad/suspicious necessarily, just "u srs bro?" 

Edited by Kasimir
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