Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[The Young Pyromancer]

18 hours ago, Straw said:

I feel like this is making a few too many logical leaps. You assume that diseases both spread and have stages.

I have caught a 'disease' that is named after a common SYMPTOM. This makes me worried, as does the fact that it doesn't appear to have a downside, aside from when it's used.

[---]

Frozen Mint - Claimed D1, when the elims probably don't know the name of village faction. - Village

Kasimir - Trusted Mint for claiming D1 during D1, idk seems pretty helpful. not a lot of other things - Village until proven otherwise

TJ Shade - The whole research intern thing, i haven't been looking at them as much but I probably should look at them again. Null

Illwei - Engaged in vote manip to save themselves but that's pretty NAI especially on D1. Tried to say something D1 to prove they were village, but no one seemed to notice it. Seems slightly suspicious of people who aren't suspicious of them, which is kinda suspicious in itself.

Gears - says some things that aren't really relevant but idk doesn't seem completely evil, just haven't really seen posts like that in my other game with him. seems out of charachter. Votes Pyro? for what reasoning I don't really see. Null?

Ashbringer - I read something making me suspicious of Ash during the night but I don't remember what it was so NVM i guess. Null.

Matrim - Seems to be talking less than normal, but that could be beacuase other people are talking more. apparently has a Roleblock. 

Araris - Changed vote last minute to create a tie. Past two games I've played someone creates a tie, the village agrees that it was a village thing to do, and then the Tie-er flips elim, votes on Mint for...suspecting me? I guess right now it's still a gut read...Null?

Straw - I still don't know. Still scares me though. Null

Lotus - Has a lot of posts, but none of the posts have seemed really helpful. Not unhelpful, just, Irrelevant. fillers like "thanks" and "i should vote" and "who do i vote on". things like that. feels like surface level activity. argues for a TJ-Mat-Ash elim team because they trust eachother. Null. I wanna see the spreadsheet but that's just because I like seeing how other people format their spreadsheets

Vapor - Basically inactive, throws a vote on Lotus for self preservation? when self preservation wasn't neccessary? maybe they didn't have time to read through and thought there was more votes on them and less on everyone else. idk. Null.

Pyro - I don't like the whole "thinking i claimed" thing but it could just be pyro being pyro idk I do think it's dangerous to keep chaotic players around though because they constantly draw attention even if you know it's their playstyle...Null

Sart - Votes on mint for a post that seems to me Mint trying to cover up if she's a vote manip if anything.

Lahilt - Keeps asking me to vote on pyro, votes on pyro? maybe just completely suspicious of pyro and wants them gone. Null

Devotary - Lurked on the thread for a long time and only voted for Ashbringer after Araris switched to Mist. maybe coincidence. Null

Striker - Posted just a few times, voted on Gears...Null

Edited August 7, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Illwei - Engaged in vote manip to save themselves but that's pretty NAI especially on D1. Tried to say something D1 to prove they were village, but no one seemed to notice it. Seems slightly suspicious of people who aren't suspicious of them, which is kinda suspicious in itself.

Umm... huh?

Also, it's kinda hard to read as just a big block of text.

[---]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, it's kinda hard to read as just a big block of text.

Fixed it?

Edited August 7, 2020 by Illwei

[Straw]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Tried to say something D1 to prove they were village, but no one seemed to notice it.

I'm kind of confused by this.

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Kasimir - Trusted Mint for claiming D1 during D1, idk seems pretty helpful. not a lot of other things - Village until proven otherwise

Why would you say someone is village unless proven otherwise? I'd say it's the opposite.

[---]

Just now, Straw said:

Why would you say someone is village unless proven otherwise? I'd say it's the opposite.

For Mint and Kas I'm choosing to trust them first, until I find a reason not to, as I am assuming that the elims wouldn't know the village faction name.

[Araris Valerian]

47 minutes ago, Illwei said:

For Mint and Kas I'm choosing to trust them first, until I find a reason not to, as I am assuming that the elims wouldn't know the village faction name.

Why? GM PMs tend to contain win condition information, which necessarily involves the name of the opposing faction. Check your PM again. Is the name of the opposing faction there? There are also other ways to find out, like asking the GM in a doc. Don't use meta stuff, because lynches based on meta information are bad IMO, and trusts based on them can be wrong and lead to losing the game. I'm pretty sure one of the AGs went horribly wrong because a timezone thing led to Wilson trusting Claincy, atlhough I'd have to check again to make sure. It also just breaks the game, and makes it less fun for everyone (or at least for people who like doing analysis). It's like in One Night Werewolf, where you don't say anything if you heard someone moving their card around during the night.

[---]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Check your PM again. Is the name of the opposing faction there?

I- no it doesn't. Until I have a better place to put my vote

Araris

EDIT: 
yes it does, I'm just stupid and there was a lot of confusion going on. D1 :P.
I was confused also by the fact that the GMs revealed both factions names during the night cycle when they didn't before hand 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Illwei
I be dumb

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

because a timezone thing led to Wilson trusting Claincy

Can confirm. I remember. IIRC Wilson says it's more complicated than that but it boils down to the timezone being the crucial piece of evidence, yeah.

[---]

Araris

[Araris Valerian]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I- no it doesn't. Until I have a better place to put my vote

You weren't supposed to answer that in thread... I might move this discussion to a PM.

Edit: Ninja'd I guess.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Kasimir]

[OOC] Sigh. I can see one option here, which is to bracket questions of likely guilt and to lynch informationally. Which means identifying a player who is central to the D1 lynches and discussions and to lynch them in order to start using them as a data point to make sense of other players' dispositions. The issue with pure informational lynches is that I don't find them very ethical, and so I'd rather not go there if we don't have to, because that just tends to ruin things for other players. (Sure sucked for Jain.) I'm aware this is an option, but I'm not desperate enough to want to do this, even if Meta was pretty gung-ho about it.

P.S. If y'all think lynching me is informational though, then go for it if you don't have a better candidate. I don't really care/mind  

So okay, this isn't going to be optimal, but whatever. It's 5:43AM at this point and I can't afford to keep agonising about this.

Very well, Araris, your PM was convincing enough. I'm still going to be watching you though.

Thoughts while I wait for my migraine medications to kick in. I'm probably going to miss rollover at this rate, so I better make it count:

#1: @Teft the mosshead, what are your thoughts?  Come and join us!

#2: Lahilt. I'm going to be brutally frank: this isn't because I've done some awesome analysis or found some issue. It's a hunch based off what Araris said  at the start of D2 (Eliminator profile) and extremely circumstantial. But at this point, I'm going for it.

[Ashbringer]

I’m not sure how much I like two people in quick succession removing votes from someone for reasons that we can’t see. 

Especially when one of them (Illwei) is one of the other main lynch candidates.

Can we get a vote count?

[Gears]

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Especially when one of them (Illwei) is one of the other main lynch candidates.

Illwei edited a correction into the post where they voted for Araris. [Context: Araris asked if the name of the opposing faction was in Illwei's PM because win-cons are usually included, Illwei didn't see it, but then they did.]

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

EDIT: 
yes it does, I'm just stupid and there was a lot of confusion going on. D1 :P.
I was confused also by the fact that the GMs revealed both factions names during the night cycle when they didn't before hand 

 

[Ashbringer]

Fair. Still seems strange, and Araris is apparently PM’ing with Illwei. And I would think Illwei would want to make a counter lynch train.

[---]

26 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Fair. Still seems strange, and Araris is apparently PM’ing with Illwei. And I would think Illwei would want to make a counter lynch train.

Araris is not PMing with Illwei, and I don't see why I would want to make a counterlynch train when you're the only one voting on me?
Why are you still voting on me again?

Did I miscount the votes? because what I've seen is:

Mint (2): Sart, Araris
Pyro (3): Gears, Lahilt, Lotus
Gears (1): Striker
Lotus (2): Matrim, Vapor
Illwei (1): Ashbringer
Araris (1): TJ Shade
Lahilt (1): Kasimi

Edited August 8, 2020 by Illwei

[+Lotus]

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

 

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

 

So sorry, my formatting is having major issues, but in the interest of self-preservation I’m changing my vote from Matrim to Pyro

Edited August 8, 2020 by Lotus

[Araris Valerian]

26 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Araris is apparently PM’ing with Illwei.

I was going to but it became unnecessary.

[Ashbringer]

Huh. I guess everyone moved. Sorry Illwei.

Hmm. Lotus, you are now tied with Pyro. Any suspicions?

Edit: No, I'm dumb, Lotus was suspicious of me/TJ/Mat. I'll look through the thread again.

Edited August 8, 2020 by Ashbringer

[---]

39 minutes ago, Lotus said:

So sorry, my formatting is having major issues, but in the interest of self-preservation I’m changing my vote from Matrim to Pyro

Ahh yes, that's some great reasoning from TJ I see :P.

I was suspicious of Pyro but now I don't know what my own thoughts are...

Edited August 8, 2020 by Illwei
People start using "Profile" I feel like I'm on criminal minds

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So both Pyro and Kas claim to have new diseases and I'm pretty sure they can't be the same one unless the act of vote manipulation has a drawback. Gaining a new disease should have let Pyro know that disease spreading was not hypothetical. Pyro now having a disease without negative inherent side effects apparently hasn't made him more willing to post and PM(to my knowledge). Mint knowing the name of the village team doesn't mean she's village, but I don't know if an elim would try to clear themself like that. For Mint, focusing on vote manipulations is certainly useful and something to be aware of, but she is right that being saved with vote manip doesn't automatically mean that the manipulator and/or the person saved is evil.

@TJ Shade, what reasons did you have to vote for Araris other than thinking he was an elim with Illwei? Of the two of them, only Illwei had a vote at that point(on that note, I'm a little concerned that Ash mentioned Mist being good in the last QF when she was on the team Ash had to kill. I can't really see why elim!Ash would be so enthusiastic to go for Illwei as to claim obvious falsehoods, so I guess it's a mistake).

I remember Lotus being more willing to vote in previous games than this one, but that may have just been D1 since this turn she's gone from lots of null suspicions and no vote to being willing to vote for solid suspicions. If Lotus is an elim, I'd expect Illwei not to be and put lower odds on Ash being evil, since Lotus could have voted to help either.

[The Young Pyromancer]

In other news, a young girl named Mancia has obtained a truck full of toilet paper. How she got it remains unclear, but-

WE INTERRUPT THIS BROADCAST TO DELIVER A STATEMENT FROM THE ASHYN DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH.

If you have a disease, this is a WARNING. Research has shown diseases have a good chance of spreading through PMs.

Please, PM responsibly.

NOW, BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING.

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Pyro now having a disease without negative inherent side effects apparently hasn't made him more willing to post and PM(to my knowledge).

This is true, as my 'disease' is making me paranoid that it's a symptom of something else.

Maybe it's a thing where if you use the ability, the disease gets worse?

But yeah, if anyone WANTS to get a minorly useful disease, PM me. I'll try to give it to you, on the condition you tell me if you catch it, and whether it changes/goes away after use/disuse.

[Ashbringer]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

(on that note, I'm a little concerned that Ash mentioned Mist being good in the last QF when she was on the team Ash had to kill. I can't really see why elim!Ash would be so enthusiastic to go for Illwei as to claim obvious falsehoods, so I guess it's a mistake).

Huh?

Illwei claimed to be suspicious of Mist and Pyro D1. Pyro thought that suspicion was largely based off of them being the last 3 standing in the QF, but Illwei insisted that something was off. However, Mist then flipped Village on lynch in this game, which I mentioned because it adds a rather large grain of salt to Illwei's read on Pyro. I don't think I talked about Mist's alignment in the QF - the three were on different teams trying to subvert each other, and thus would have some mistrust and experience seeing that mistrust.

And seeing as everyone decided to lynch me D2, I didn't get to do much analysis on who I had to kill to win .

[---]

 I think I'm going to vote on Lotus 

I don't know what the chances of being an elim x times in a row are but I'm trying to avoid thinking about that. Voting mostly because they seem to be talking a lot and not saying much, as well as both hopping on the Matrim and Pyro votes without much reasoning.

Edited August 8, 2020 by Illwei
great I made a new page.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

If you have a disease, this is a WARNING. Research has shown diseases have a good chance of spreading through PMs.

As in, somebody you PM'd had the same disease you now have and they didn't have many or any PMs with other players?

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Illwei claimed to be suspicious of Mist and Pyro D1. Pyro thought that suspicion was largely based off of them being the last 3 standing in the QF, but Illwei insisted that something was off. However, Mist then flipped Village on lynch in this game, which I mentioned because it adds a rather large grain of salt to Illwei's read on Pyro. I don't think I talked about Mist's alignment in the QF - the three were on different teams trying to subvert each other, and thus would have some mistrust and experience seeing that mistrust.

Quote

Claims to gut read Pyro and Mist as bad, claims unrelated to QF (but Mist was good).

This definitely looked like you were saying Mist was good in the QF, but it does makes more sense if you were referring to Mist being good in this game.